Chigwell Cemetery Extension Need Assessment Peter Mitchell Associates March 2016 Contents CONTENTS 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 INTRODUCTION 4 THE AUTHOR 4 DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS AFFECTING DEMAND FOR BURIAL 5 AGE STRUCTURE 5 RELIGION 10 ETHNICITY 11 SUMMARY OF DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS 13 THE CONTEXT OF BURIAL SPACE CAPACITY. 14 IDENTIFIED SHORTAGE OF BURIAL SPACE CAPACITY IN LONDON 15 LPAC REPORTS 15 GLA AUDIT 16 BBC SURVEY 18 NEW CEMETERY LAND 19 BURIAL SPACE CAPACITY WITHIN THE CHIGWELL AREA 23 UNDERSTANDING BURIAL CAPACITY 25 RESERVED GRAVES 26 BURIAL SPACE CAPACITY WITHIN CHIGWELL CEMETERY 27 CONCLUSIONS 31 Peter Mitchell Associates © March 2016 Page 2 of 31 Executive Summary This report examines the demographic factors influencing demand for burial, the context of burial space capacity and burial space capacity in the Chigwell area. Whilst it is not possible to calculate precisely how many years’ capacity remains at Chigwell Cemetery, this report provides estimates ranging from 53 to 24 years and suggests 38.5 years as being a reasonable estimate. In view of these factors, the securing of the land immediately adjacent to the cemetery for the purposes of a future cemetery extension would guarantee the continued provision of burial space in Chigwell Cemetery into the long term. Peter Mitchell Associates © March 2016 Page 3 of 31 Introduction This report updates a report issued in April 2015 and re-examines the issues affecting the future capacity of Chigwell Parish Council’s cemetery, in Froghall Lane Chigwell. The Author I am Peter Mitchell, Fellow and Diploma holder of the Institute of Cemetery and Crematorium Management. Commencing in February 1983, I have worked at all levels from operations to management in cemeteries and crematoria in both public and private sectors. Since April 2002, I have been an independent consultant specialising in all matters relating to burial, cremation and exhumation. I am very familiar with the issues associated with the provision, development and management of cemeteries and crematoria. My work has involved me in assessing the need for new developments, undertaking feasibility studies, ground investigations and advising on design. I have an extensive knowledge of the law relating to burial, cremation and exhumation. My professional life has brought me into close contact with many bereaved people, Funeral Directors and Officiants, which has given me an understanding of the needs of key stakeholders involved in providing for the deceased and the bereaved. Peter Mitchell Associates © March 2016 Page 4 of 31 Demographic factors affecting demand for burial Age structure The chart below illustrates for the whole of England and Wales in 2012 the statistical link between increasing age and likelihood of death: Death Rates by Age in England & Wales 2012 Males Females 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 to 5 - 9 10 - 15 - 20 - 25 - 30 - 35 - 40 - 45 - 50 - 55 - 60 - 65 - 70 - 75 - 80 - 85 - 90 4 14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 84 89 and Death Rates per 1,000 of the Population per 1,000of Death Rates over 5 Year Age Band Figure 1: Mortality by quinary age band. Source ONS Deaths registered in England and Wales Table 1 Peter Mitchell Associates © March 2016 Page 5 of 31 The chart below illustrates the age structure of the population of Epping Forest, Essex and England as a whole: Figure 2: Age Structure (Census 2011) Epping Forest has higher proportions of its population than England as a whole in all age groups from 30 years and older. This age structure suggests a higher than average increase in deaths in the future as this higher proportion of the population ages. Peter Mitchell Associates © March 2016 Page 6 of 31 number of factors leading to this reduction in mortality rates Mortality rates amongst infants and the elderly have seen the greatest change. There are a 10 Table Wales and England Figure 3 the mid 19 Wales since Mortality rates change significantly over time and have been in general decline in England and socio healthcare, diet and population, includingimproved Deaths per 5 Year Period 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 : England & Wales deaths and death rates. Source ONS Deaths registered in 0 EnglandDeaths& Death Rates & Wales 1841-2010 1841-1845 1846-1850 1851-1855 1856-1860 1861-1865 th Peter Peter 1866-1870 below: illustrated inthe chart century, as 1871-1875 Mitchell Associates © March 2016 March © Associates Mitchell 1876-1880 1881-1885 1886-1890 1891-1895 1896-1900 Deaths 1901-1905 1906-1910 1911-1915 1916-1920 1921-1925 1926-1930 Death rates 1931-1935 1936-1940 1941-1945 1946-1950 - economic status of the population. of economic status 1951-1955 Page Page 1956-1960 1961-1965 7 and consequent ageing of the 1966-1970 of of 1971-1975 31 1976-1980 1981-1985 1986-1990 1991-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010 0 5 10 15 20 25 Death Rate per 1,000 However, numbers of deaths and mortality rates are expected to rise from 2016 onwards as the post-war generations continue to age: Figure 4: ONS 2008-based national population projections, series PP2 No 27 25.7.2010 Peter Mitchell Associates © March 2016 Page 8 of 31 The chart below illustrates ONS projected deaths for the Epping Forest District Council area: Figure 5: ONS projected population at deaths Between 2015 and 2037, the population is projected to rise by 22%, but the number of deaths by 36%. This projected increase will inevitably lead to increased demand for burial space in Chigwell Cemetery. Peter Mitchell Associates © March 2016 Page 9 of 31 Religion Religious belief can play a significant role in people’s choice between burial and cremation. Demand for burial and cremation facilities may thus be influenced by the religious beliefs of the residents of a particular area. Forbid Permit Cremation Cremation Muslims Hindus Jews – Orthodox Buddhists Greek Orthodox Sikhs Russian Orthodox Roman Catholic Zoroastrians Jews – Liberal Parsees Church of Scotland Church of England Church in Wales Church of Ireland Presbyterians Methodists Table 1: Religious Attitudes towards Cremation (Source: Cremation Society of Great Britain) The vast majority of Hindus, Buddhists and Sikhs all choose cremation in preference to burial. In contrast, Muslims and Orthodox Jews choose burial. An area with a high proportion of Muslims is thus going to have lower demand for a crematorium than one with a high proportion of Hindus, Buddhists and Sikhs. The majority of Roman Catholics still seem to prefer burial, in spite of a Papal edict in July 1963 that stated that they are permitted to choose cremation. The most recent data on religious belief is contained in the Census 2011. The chart below illustrates the Census 2011 data and compares the minority religious beliefs of the population of Epping Forest, Essex and England as a whole. Peter Mitchell Associates © March 2016 Page 10 of 31 Figure 6: Minority religious belief (Census 2011) Epping Forest is more diverse than Essex as a whole and has a higher proportion of its population who are Jewish and almost as high a proportion who are Hindu as England as a whole. The Jewish people are likely to choose burial at one of the exclusively Jewish cemeteries in the area. The relative proportions of Sikhs, Hindus and Muslims will effectively balance out the demand for cremation and burial from these groups. Ethnicity Ethnic origin is often associated with religious belief and thus preferences for burial or cremation. The chart below compares ethnicity in Epping Forest, Essex and England as a whole for the non-white groups: Peter Mitchell Associates © March 2016 Page 11 of 31 Figure 7: Non-white ethnicity (Census 2011) The chart below illustrates by ward the proportions of people in non-white ethnic groups: Figure 8: Non-white ethnicity at ward level (Census 2011) Peter Mitchell Associates © March 2016 Page 12 of 31 There is considerable variation, with the highest diversity in Grange Hill, Chigwell and Buckhurst Hill, which form the primary catchment area for Chigwell cemetery. Whilst the highest proportion is people of Indian origin, who are likely to prefer cremation, other significant groups prefer burial. Whilst Epping Forest is generally less diverse than England as a whole, it is more diverse than Essex as a whole. Specifically Epping Forest has more people of Caribbean, Pakistani and Indian origin, the first two groups preferring burial. Summary of demographic factors Chigwell Cemetery primarily serves people living within a number of wards of Epping Forest District Council. Epping Forest has a relatively older age structure compared to England as a whole. This helps explain why, in spite of the projected increase in population, deaths are projected to increase more, by 36% by 2037. The relatively high proportion of Jewish people living in Epping Forest suggests a higher than average demand for burial. However, this demand will almost exclusively be met a specifically Jewish cemeteries, so will not impact upon demand at Chigwell Cemetery. Religious belief does not significantly impact upon demand for burial at Chigwell Cemetery. The highest proportions of the non-white population in Epping Forest are Indian, who are generally Hindu or Sikh and prefer cremation. However, overall other ethnic groups such as Pakistanis, Bangladeshis and Caribbean people represent a slightly higher proportion of the population and these groups generally prefer burial. These demographic factors indicate a sustained and growing demand for burial at Chigwell Cemetery. Peter Mitchell Associates © March 2016 Page 13 of 31 The context of burial space capacity. The provision of burial space capacity varies widely across England and Wales. Whilst in the past media attention has focused primarily upon the situation in London, shortage of burial space can and does occur in rural areas, as highlighted in the following media report: “A national shortage of grave space has become “critical” with some towns now on the brink of having nowhere to bury the dead, MPs have warned.