Israel and the Middle East News Update

Thursday, February 27

Headlines:

• Gantz Says Netanyahu ‘Poisoning’ with Divisions • Lapid: ‘Israel Won’t Be a Democracy if Netanyahu Passes Immunity Law’ • Lieberman: Govt’ to Be Formed Without Netanyahu: No Chance for Unity • Bennett: ‘I’d Rather Sit in the Opposition than Join a Govt’ Led by Gantz’ • Israel Issues Travel Warning to Italy, Urges Cancelling all Travel Abroad • Saudi Arabia Halts Travel to Islam’s Holiest Sites Over Coronavirus • Mike Bloomberg to Attend AIPAC Conference in Washington • Tel Aviv University Researchers Discover a Non-Breathing Living Animal

Commentary:

• Ha’aretz: “Last Chance to Save Israeli Democracy” - By Ehud Barak, former prime minister of Israel • Al Monitor: “And if Netanyahu Scores a Landslide Victory?” - By Ben Caspit, commentator at Al Monitor

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor

News Excerpts February 27, 2020 Times of Israel Gantz Says Netanyahu ‘Poisoning’ Israel with Divisions Dramatically stepping up his attacks on his rival days before the national election, Blue and White leader furiously lashed out at Netanyahu on Wednesday, accusing him of “lying” and “inciting” against him and tearing at the fabric of Israeli society. Gantz also flatly ruled out sitting in a coalition with Netanyahu after the March 2 race. “Netanyahu, look me in the eyes. Your obsession with evading prosecution has driven you to lie, to tear us apart, to sow division… to spread malicious rumors and incitement,” Gantz accused in a dramatic speech five days before the March 2 election. Gantz’s statement follows several days of ads that have turned increasingly personal and nasty against the former army chief. Likud has sought to portray Gantz as incapable of running the country — an incoherent stutterer suffering from mental health problems, as well as a failed businessman. See also, “Five Days to Israel Election: Livid Gantz Finally Lets Loose on Netanyahu and His Dirty Spin Machine” (Ha’aretz)

Jerusalem Post Lapid: ‘Israel Won’t Be a Democracy if Netanyahu Passes Immunity Law’ Senior Blue and White MK warned on Wednesday that Israel would cease to be a democracy if Prime Minister is able to form a coalition after the election and pass a retroactive immunity from prosecution law to protect himself. Speaking at the Maariv conference in Herzliya, also addressed the Trump peace plan and criticized the Palestinian political leadership for failing to see the opportunities the proposals lay out for the Palestinians. “If Netanyahu wins [the election] by even one seat, he will claim that he doesn’t need to have a trial because the public will have already acquitted him,” argued Lapid in reference to Netanyahu’s upcoming trial on three corruption charges slated to begin March 17 in the Jerusalem District Court. See also “Lapid: Yes, anyone but Bibi” (Arutz 7)

Ha’aretz Lieberman: Govt’ to Be Formed Without Netanyahu: No Chance for Unity Chairman , who emerged as kingmaker in Israel's two previous elections this year, said on Wednesday that he is ruling out the possibility of forming a unity government with Benny Gantz's Netanyahu after the March 2 ballot. Speaking at the Ma'ariv Business Conference 2030 in Herzliya, Lieberman said: "Gantz and Netanyahu together reached 65 seats [in the last election], and I told them to form a government, but they preferred to argue over who would be first and who would be second," Lieberman said. See also, “Liberman signals alliance with Blue & White” (i24)

Israel Hayom Bennett: ‘I’d Rather Sit in the Opposition than Join a Govt’ Led by Gantz’ I’d rather sit in the opposition than join a government led by Benny Gantz. I’d also sooner face a fourth election than sit in his cabinet,” Israeli Defense Minister told Israel Hayom this week. Bennett, who heads the faction—an alliance of the national-religious New Right, National Union and Jewish Home parties—said that this was because “I am a rightist, and Blue and White is the left- wing party.” “At the heart of Blue and White, you have ,” said Bennett. “They want to evict tens of thousands of settlers from their homes, and Yair Lapid, who is anti-religious, has said in the past that the [2005] disengagement was punishment for the national-religious public.” 2

Ynet News Israel Issues Travel Warning to Italy, Urges Cancelling all Travel Abroad Israel issued a travel warning to Italy on Wednesday following the outbreak of coronavirus in the country, and in a drastic move urged Israelis to reconsider all non-essential travel abroad. In addition, the Health Ministry said that anyone returning from Italy will have to immediately enter a 14-day quarantine, making it the first European country to which Israel issued a travel advisory. Italian authorities earlier said a 12th person had died in northern Italy from the virus, while the number of confirmed cases in the country rose to 374, the biggest in Europe. The United States also earlier issued a travel advisory to Italy, urging the Americans to "exercise increased caution" over the spread of the disease. See also “ Israeli Tourism Officials Worry Coronavirus Will Cause Sector’s Collapse” (Ha’aretz)

TOI Saudi Arabia Halts Travel to Islam’s Holiest Sites Over Coronavirus Saudi Arabia on Thursday halted travel to the holiest sites in Islam over fears about a new viral epidemic just months ahead of the annual hajj pilgrimage, a move coming as the Mideast has over 220 confirmed cases of the illness. The extraordinary decision by Saudi Arabia stops foreigners from reaching the holy city of Mecca and the Kaaba, the cube-shaped structure the world’s 1.8 billion Muslims pray toward five times a day. It also said travel was suspended to Prophet Muhammad’s mosque in Medina. The decision showed the worry about the outbreak potentially spreading into Saudi Arabia, whose oil-rich monarchy stakes its legitimacy on protecting Islam’s holy sites

Ha’aretz Mike Bloomberg to Attend AIPAC Conference in Washington Former New York City mayor Mike Bloomberg, who is currently seeking the Democratic presidential nomination, will speak this weekend at the annual AIPAC policy conference in Washington. AIPAC, the leading lobbying group supporting Israel in the United States, announced Bloomberg's participation on Tuesday, two days after the current frontrunner in the Democratic race, Senator Bernie Sanders, said he would not attend the conference. Bloomberg is the first Democratic candidate to announce that he will speak at the AIPAC gathering. By choosing to speak at the conference, the former New York mayor is drawing a clear distinction between himself and Sanders, offering Democratic voters two different approaches regarding Israel. See also, “Democrats Buttigieg, Klobuchar latest to skip AIPAC conference” (TOI)

Jerusalem Post Tel Aviv University Researchers Discover a Non-Breathing Living Animal Life science researchers at Tel Aviv University (TAU) have stumbled upon a non-breathing animal, challenging current understanding of the animal world, according to a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. The research, led by Prof. Dorothee Huchon of the School of Zoology at TAU’s Faculty of Life Sciences and Steinhardt Museum of Natural History, detailed the 10-celled parasite organism called Henneguya salminicola that is found in the muscles of salmon. The research was supported by the US-Israel Binational Science Foundation, and conducted along with Prof. Paulyn Cartwright of the University of Kansas, and Prof. Jerri Bartholomew and Dr. Stephen Atkinson of Oregon State University. "The parasite’s anaerobic nature was an accidental discovery," TAU said in a statement. "While assembling the Henneguya genome, Huchon found that it did not include a mitochondrial genome. 3

Ha’aretz – February 26, 2020 Last Chance to Save Israeli Democracy

By Ehud Barak, former prime minister of Israel

• Israel’s democracy is at the height of a process of collapse, and Election Day is the last opportunity to halt it. The reign of Justice Minister Amir Ohana and State Comptroller Matanyahu Englman – presided over by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is constantly being driven crazy by his wife and son – is a nightmare. If we don’t stop it through our votes, we may quickly tumble down the slope and wind up like Poland or Hungary or even Turkey. • The blow Ohana dealt Attorney General Avichai Mendelblit through Acting State Prosecutor Dan Eldad’s announcement, in the middle of the evening news, of the opening of a criminal investigation into Fifth Dimension is just a prologue to what our daily fare will be in the next transitional government. There isn’t just a “whiff of politics” here, to quote opposition leader Benny Gantz, who formerly served as Fifth Dimension’s chairman of the board. This is a fundamentally corrupt political decision, whose timing was deliberate and unscrupulous. • It is meant, first of all, to create an image of symmetry between Gantz, an honest man, and Netanyahu, whose trial on the most serious of charges will open in another three weeks. It is also meant to signal the attorney general which way the wind is blowing starting today. If we allow this to continue, every one of us could be a target of similar “quasi-judicial” harassment tomorrow • Netanyahu, who is collapsing as the start of his trial nears, has nothing to lose. Moreover, he knows there are still some investigations that may await him – involving his stocks, his cousin and his false reports to the state comptroller, and immediately after that, perhaps others looking into Israel’s submarine purchases, its natural gas deal and who knows what else. And if the election results allow him to demand that he be tasked with forming a government, don’t count on the gatekeepers; they are already paralyzed by fear. If the leaders of the opposition and the voters don’t wake up and wage a scathing, merciless campaign in the days remaining, this paralysis will only get worse. • The attorney general will be afraid to carry out his duty to rule that a man about to stand trial for bribery and fraud over his actions in previous governments can’t form a new government. He’ll understand that the day after issuing such a decision, he’ll be fired. • The scarecrow in the Ohana-Englman mode who will be appointed in his stead will argue to the High Court of Justice that this was a reasonable decision. On the morning of the hearing, tens of thousands of riled up protesters will demonstrate outside the High Court with burning tires against this attempt by “the alienated elite” to hurt “God’s friend.” • Some of the justices will tell their friends, heaven forbid, that unknown persons are following their grandchildren on their way to and from preschool. I believe this has happened in the past to the children of the prosecutor in Netanyahu’s cases, Liat Ben-Ari. And if anyone is convinced that the High Court will be the dike blocking this wave, I suggest that they reconsider. When have we seen it come to its senses in that fashion recently?

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• The Supreme Court, as one of its presidents said, has neither the sword nor purse, but only the public’s faith. But this faith has for years been the target of a destructive assault by Netanyahu, his mouthpieces and his lapdogs. • And President Reuven Rivlin? He takes his responsibilities seriously, but he also dwells among his people. He, too, understands that if he doesn’t allow Netanyahu to form a government, he’ll be up against the acting replacement of the attorney general who was fired and an intimidated High Court. In this situation the president is liable to be deterred as well. • There is no symmetry between Netanyahu, who is charged with bribery, and the fabrications of some “The Shadow” (a right-wing rapper) about Kahol Lavan leader Gantz. Just as there’s no symmetry between the nauseating idol worship of Netanyahu by his mouthpieces in the media, along with their willingness to libel Gantz and his associates, and the fact that left-leaning journalists harshly criticize Netanyahu but don’t bow down to any of their leaders. • So what do we learn from all this? First, that we must win this election. This is the last chance to save Israel’s democracy and its future from its destroyers, led by the prime minister. Woe to us if we fail. It’s vital that each and every believer in the Zionist dream, the Declaration of Independence and an Israel that’s both democratic and Jewish, both liberal and nationalist, show up and vote for one of the parties in the center-left bloc. • Second, the opposition’s leaders, first and foremost Gantz, must confront the public with both the opportunity and the danger posed by the current situation. They must also promise to fight with all their might against the pressure that will be exerted on the attorney general, the High Court and the president to prevent them from doing their duties.

Summary: Netanyahu, who is collapsing as the start of his trial nears, has nothing to lose. Moreover, he knows there are still some investigations that may await him – involving his

stocks, his cousin and his false reports to the state comptroller, and immediately after that, perhaps others looking into Israel’s submarine purchases, its natural gas deal and who knows what else. And if the election results allow him to demand that he be tasked with forming a government, don’t count on the gatekeepers; they are already paralyzed by fear. If the leaders of the opposition and the voters don’t wake up and wage a scathing, merciless campaign in the days remaining, this paralysis will only get worse.The attorney general will be afraid to carry out his duty to rule that a man about to stand trial for bribery and fraud over his actions in previous governments can’t form a new government. He’ll understand that the day after issuing such a decision, he’ll be fired. the opposition’s leaders, first and foremost Gantz, must confront the public with both the opportunity and the danger posed by the current situation. They must also promise to fight with all their might against the pressure that will be exerted on the attorney general, the High Court and the president to prevent them from doing their duties.

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Al Monitor – February 26 2020 And if Netanyahu Scores a Landslide Victory?

By Ben Caspit, commentator at Al Monitor

• If Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wins the upcoming elections, that will be the end of Israeli democracy, former Prime Minister Ehud Barak said in interviews he gave to the Israeli media this week. Blue and White member Yair Lapid tweeted Feb. 25, “If you plan on voting for Labor- , ask yourselves one question: What will remain of Israeli democracy if Netanyahu wins by even one mandate? • Simultaneously, Chairman said in an Feb. 25 interview with Walla that his party will enable Netanyahu to continue to serve as prime minister even if the High Court forbids it. This statement is seen as a confirmation of the deep misgivings that are spreading throughout the center-left and the few liberal bastions that still remain in Israel that should Netanyahu achieve 61 seats, he would take off his gloves and shred the country’s law enforcement and legal systems into pieces. Then he would re-create new systems in his own image. • The nightmare scenario example used by Blue and White officials is today’s Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdogan. They believe that under Netanyahu, the administration would undergo far- reaching changes: The powers of the prime minister would be widened, the wings of the legal system would be clipped and takeover of the media would be completed. As usual, the official formulator of these fears was Barak: “Israeli democracy is being smashed to pieces; next Monday is our last opportunity to halt it. The very idea of an Ohana-Engelman regime [Justice Minister Amir Ohana and State Comptroller Matanyahu Engelman], directed by a Netanyahu whose wife and son have made totally crazy, is truly a nightmare. If we can’t stop him with our votes, we are likely to quickly roll down toward the Poland/Hungary junction or toward the 'Turkey case,'” he wrote in an article published in Haaretz on Feb. 25. • Netanyahu himself reinforced these concerns due to a slip of the tongue during one of the interviews he held this week. When asked if, after the elections, he would consider legislating a law similar to the "French law" [of sovereign immunity] that prevents the indictment of a head of state, Netanyahu did not rule out the possibility. Afterward he realized his mistake and hurried to strongly deny such a possibility in all the interviews he gave. Even Netanyahu understands that if he is perceived as trying to achieve victory in the elections in order to avoid legal punishment, he’ll lose points even among the right. Despite Netanyahu’s current momentum, most of the Israeli public still understands that a prime minister under indictment is not capable of running a country as complicated and volatile as Israel. • Prior to the April 2019 elections, Netanyahu was asked in a Channel 12 interview whether he would ask for immunity from the after being indicted. The prime minister offered a categorical denial that has already entered the “pantheon of false denials” in Israeli politics, saying this was out of the question. In January, after he was served with an indictment, Netanyahu hurried to file for immunity. Later on, he was forced to retract this in disgrace, when he understood that he didn’t have a majority in the Knesset. • As of now, these glitches have not brought down his standing in the polls. He succeeded in overcoming the initial advantage Blue and White had in opinion surveys, and the right-wing bloc he heads is also recovering. Nevertheless, Netanyahu is still far (four to six seats) from the 61 6

seats that would, according to his adversaries, put the finishing touches on the destruction of Israeli democracy, as we have known it since the founding of the state in 1948. • Deterioration in the polls caused Blue and White to recently embark on an aggressive campaign of its own. Until recently, Benny Gantz had led a clean, impartial, dignified campaign, but now understands that while he played according to the rules, the voters were fleeing to Netanyahu, who is fighting for every vote and does not follow the rules. The first decision made by Blue and White was to turn to the left and try to storm the 10 seats (according to the polls) of the Labor- Meretz-Gesher alliance. Gantz decided to treat Labor chairman Amir Peretz the way Netanyahu does Yamina leader Naftali Bennett — without allowing his conscience to bother him. The prior Blue and White strategy of letting Peretz concentrate the left-wing votes, and the attempt to pump “soft” right-wing votes from Netanyahu — did not bring results; the opposite was true. Now, in the very last moments of the campaign, Blue and White finally decided to take off the gloves and try to draw votes from every possible direction. • Possible relatively good news for Blue and White is drawn from the statistical history of Israeli politics. With only one exception, every time that Netanyahu reached election day when he led in the polls, he lost or received far less support than was anticipated. But every time he reached election day when he lagged behind in the polls, he won. An upgrading of his position in the last days of the campaign could take the wind out of the sails of Likud supporters, who might be convinced that Netanyahu will win and thus might not flood the voting booths. And the opposite could be true: Center-left Blue and White voters may understand that they are fighting for their home base and may give it everything they have. The elections likely will be decided by the voting percentages within the different groups: the Arab voters of the , the Likud voters and Blue and White voters. The parties whose voters crowd the voting booths in greater numbers will be the ones to celebrate the morning of March 3. • And what will happen if Netanyahu breaks through the 61-seat barrier? Not everyone is convinced that he can pulverize Israel’s democracy. “There are at least four to five Knesset members in the Likud who will not vote in favor of a “French law” or emasculation of the High Court,” a high-level Likud member told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “I believe that there are many members of other parties who also oppose such machinations.” Even in Blue and White, there are those who believe that it is way too early to eulogize Israel’s democracy. “Israel is not Turkey,” a high-up Blue and White official told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “Here, no one can casually throw journalists or high-ranking army officers into jail, even now. And we really hope that even after the elections, it won’t be any easier to do so.”

And what will happen if Netanyahu breaks through the 61-seat barrier? Not everyone is convinced that he can pulverize Israel’s democracy. “There are at least four to five Knesset members in the Likud who will not vote in favor of a “French law” or emasculation of the High Court,” a high-level Likud member told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “I believe that there are many members of other parties who also oppose such machinations.” Even in Blue and White, there are those who believe that it is way too early to eulogize Israel’s democracy. “Israel is not Turkey,” a high-up Blue and White official told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity. “Here, no one can casually throw journalists or high-ranking army officers into jail, even now. And we really hope that even after the elections, it won’t be any easier to do so.”

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