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Quantification of Health Commodities RMNCH Supplement 2 Recommended Citation Quantification of Health Commodities: RMNCH Supplement Forecasting Consumption of Select Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health Commodities Updated June 2016 JSI Research & Training Institute, Inc., and Management Sciences for Health This manual represents the combined efforts of JSI Research & Training Institute, Inc. and the Systems for Improved Access to Pharmaceuticals and Services (SIAPS) Program, funded by US Agency for International Development and implemented by Management Sciences for Health. This document is made possible in part by the generous support of the American people through the US Agency for International Development (USAID), under the terms of cooperative agreement number AID-OAA-A-11-00021. The contents are the responsibility of Management Sciences for Health and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. Support for this work was also provided by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF). The views expressed by the authors do not necessarily reflect the view of UNICEF. UNICEF and JSI Research & Training Institute, Inc. (JSI) shall have the right to duplicate, use, or disclose the data to the extent provided in the agreement. This restriction does not limit UNICEF’s right to use information contained in these data if it is obtained from another source without restriction. About SIAPS The goal of the Systems for Improved Access to Pharmaceuticals and Services (SIAPS) Program is to assure the availability of quality pharmaceutical products and effective pharmaceutical services to achieve desired health outcomes. Toward this end, the SIAPS result areas include improving governance, building capacity for pharmaceutical management and services, addressing information needed for decision-making in the pharmaceutical sector, strengthening financing strategies and mechanisms to improve access to medicines, and increasing quality pharmaceutical services. About JSI JSI Research & Training Institute, Inc. (JSI) is a U.S.-based health care consulting firm committed to improving the health of individuals and communities worldwide. Our multidisciplinary staff works in partnership with host-country experts, organizations, and governments to make quality, accessible health care a reality for children, women, and men around the world. JSI’s headquarters are in Boston, Massachusetts, with U.S. offices in Washington, D.C.; Atlanta, Georgia; Burlington, Vermont; Concord, New Hampshire; Denver, Colorado; Providence, Rhode Island; and San Francisco, California. JSI also maintains offices in more than 40 countries throughout the developing world. Quantification of Health Commodities RMNCH Supplement 2 Recommended Citation This report may be reproduced if credit is given to SIAPS and JSI. Please use the following citation. JSI and SIAPS. 2015. Quantification of Health Commodities: RMNCH Supplement Forecasting Consumption of Select Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn and Child Health Commodities. Submitted to the US Agency for International Development by the Systems for Improved Access to Pharmaceuticals and Services (SIAPS) Program. Arlington, VA: Management Sciences for Health. Submitted to the United Nations Children’s Fund by JSI, Arlington, VA: JSI Research & Training Institute, Inc. This work is based on Quantification of Health Commodities developed by the USAID | DELIVER PROJECT and is modeled on other “Companion Guides” written by the Project for ARVs, HIV Test Kits, Laboratory Commodities, and Contraceptives, and on the Manual for Quantification of Malaria Commodities published by the Strengthening Pharmaceutical Systems Program. Parts of this document were originally published in: USAID | DELIVER PROJECT, Task Order 4. 2011. Quantification of Health Commodities: Contraceptive Companion Guide. Forecasting Consumption of Contraceptive Supplies. Arlington, Va.: USAID | DELIVER PROJECT, Task Order 4 and USAID | DELIVER PROJECT, Task Order 1. 2008. Quantification of Health Commodities: A Guide to Forecasting and Supply Planning for Procurement. Arlington, Va.: USAID | DELIVER PROJECT, Task Order 1 They are reprinted with permission. Systems for Improved Access to JSI Research & Training Institute, Inc. Pharmaceuticals and Services 1616 Fort Myer Drive, 16th Floor Center for Pharmaceutical Management Arlington, VA 22209 USA Management Sciences for Health Tel +1 703 528 7474 4301 North Fairfax Drive, Suite 400 Fax +1 703 528 7480 Arlington, VA 22203 USA www.jsi.com Telephone: 703.524.6575 Fax: 703.524.7898 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.siapsprogram.org Quantification of Health Commodities RMNCH Supplement 3 Quantification of Health Commodities RMNCH Supplement 4 Summary .............................................................................................................................. 7 Acronyms .............................................................................................................................. 9 Acknowledgments ............................................................................................................... 11 Section 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................ 13 Section 2. Forecasting Algorithms ....................................................................................... 23 Section 2.1 Forecasting Algorithms for Family Planning Products ....................................... 24 Emergency Contraceptive Pills ........................................................................................ 25 Female Condoms ............................................................................................................ 40 Contraceptive Implants.................................................................................................... 51 Section 2.2. Forecasting Algorithms for Maternal Health Products ...................................... 66 Magnesium Sulfate ......................................................................................................... 67 Misoprostol ...................................................................................................................... 74 Oxytocin .......................................................................................................................... 83 Section 2.3. Forecasting Algorithms for Newborn Health Products ...................................... 91 Antenatal Corticosteroids ................................................................................................ 92 Chlorhexidine .................................................................................................................. 99 Antibiotics for possible severe bacterial infection in newborns ....................................... 106 Neonatal Resuscitation Commodities ............................................................................ 116 Section 2.4. Forecasting Algorithms for Child Health Products .......................................... 131 Amoxicillin ..................................................................................................................... 132 Zinc and Oral Rehydration Salts .................................................................................... 144 Section 3: Tools and Resources for Quantification ............................................................ 156 Tools and Resources for Quantification ......................................................................... 158 Glossary ........................................................................................................................ 167 Annexes ............................................................................................................................ 169 Annex A. Flow of Data in Quantification ........................................................................ 170 Annex B: Types of Data Used for Forecasting Consumption of Health Commodities .... 171 Contents 5 Contents 6 This guide will assist program managers, service providers, and technical experts when conducting a quantification of commodity needs for the 13 reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health commodities prioritized by the UN Commission on Life-Saving Commodities for Women and Children. This quantification supplement should be used with the main guide—Quantification of Health Commodities: A Guide to Forecasting and Supply Planning for Procurement. * This supplement describes the steps in forecasting consumption of these supplies when consumption and service data are not available; after which, to complete the quantification, the users should refer to the main quantification guide for the supply planning step. * USAID | DELIVER PROJECT, Task Order 4. 2014. Quantification of Health Commodities: A Guide to Forecasting and Supply Planning for Procurement. Arlington, Va.: USAID | DELIVER PROJECT, Task Order 4. Summary 7 Summary 8 ACS antenatal corticosteroids ANC antenatal care ARI acute respiratory infection Beta-AC betamethasone acetate Beta-PO4 betamethasone phosphate Beta betamethasone CH child health CHERG Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group CHW community health worker COC combined oral contraceptive CPR contraceptive prevalence rate CSO Civil Society Organization CYP Couple-Years of Protection Dexa dexamethasone DHS Demographic and Health Survey DT dispersible tablet EC emergency contraception ECP emergency contraceptive pill EML Essential Medicines List EMLc Essential Medicines List of Children FP family planning FSW female sex worker
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