Nber Working Paper Series Betting on Secession
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES BETTING ON SECESSION: QUANTIFYING POLITICAL EVENTS SURROUNDING SLAVERY AND THE CIVIL WAR Charles W. Calomiris Jonathan Pritchett Working Paper 19625 http://www.nber.org/papers/w19625 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 November 2013 The authors acknowledge the support of the National Science Foundation award SMA-1004569, and the New Orleans Center for the Gulf South. They benefited from the helpful comments and suggestions of Jenny Bourne, Stanley Engerman, Jean-Laurent Rosenthal, Gavin Wright, and conference participants at the meetings of the Cliometrics Society on January 5, 2013, the NBER Development of the American Economy Program Meeting on March 2, 2013, and the “Time on the Cross at 40” Conference at the University of Chicago on October 5, 2013. Yibang Chen, Zachary Cohen, Kyle Falvey, Denise Fornoff, Jessica Hayes, Benjamin Kim, Daniel Penaranda, Stephen Ragany, Kara Ramsey, Catherine Rath, Mallorie Smith, and Emily Westermeier provided able research assistance. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer- reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2013 by Charles W. Calomiris and Jonathan Pritchett. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Betting on Secession: Quantifying Political Events Surrounding Slavery and the Civil War Charles W.
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