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Crude Oil Logistics, Production and Refining in Northern Europe International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy ISSN: 2146-4553 available at http: www.econjournals.com International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2018, 8(5), 18-28. Crude Oil Logistics, Production and Refining in Northern Europe Vladimir Pavlovich Klepikov1*, Vladimir Vladimirovich Klepikov2 1National Research University Higher School of Economics, Russia, 2PricewaterhouseCoopers, Russia. *Email: [email protected] ABSTRACT To develop the programs to supply crude oil to North European refineries, it is necessary to take into account refineries’ location, oil refining capabilities and transportation infrastructure capacity. The paper envisages the geographic allocation of refineries and contains the evaluation of refineries’ capacities. Sustainable operations of the refineries are determined by transportation system. The assessment of capacity of crude oil transportation to the refineries is conducted. Change in the refineries’ capacities and the utilization of the refineries’ in the Northern European region was studied. Research is performed for the period of 2005/2015. The study yielded the trend towards increase in crude oil output and refining in the region. If this trend persists, the cargo flow of imported crude oil and the utilization of logistics infrastructure may increase. According to the study, the existing transport and refining infrastructure in the region is able to handle the increasing imported crude oil flow. Keywords: Oil Logistics, Oil Production, Oil Refining JEL Classifications: F23, L71, L95, O52, R12 1. INTRODUCTION in fluctuations of crude oil output and refining in the region. The findings of such study would help forecast the development Main goal of this research is to identify key trends and tendencies directions of the crude oil delivery and refining infrastructure, the in oil production and refining in Northern Europe and asses the volumes of oil supplies to the region’s refineries. capabilities of oil logistics and refining infrastructure. As it will be shown later, the major part of the crude oil deliveries To achieve that goal it is necessary to make several steps such as: are made by marine transport through seaports. Moreover, all of 1. Define countries which are the main contributors to the oil these ports geographically located on seashore of the Northern production and refining process in the region European seas. This circumstance explains why Northern 2. Identify the global trend of oil production European region was selected for the further examination in this 3. Evaluate oil production and refinery concertation paper. 4. Determine the breakdown of marine and pipeline transportation in oil deliveries and identify oil terminals capabilities 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 5. Asses the capabilities of oil transportation and refining infrastructures. Crude oil has profound impact on transport development. Oil output, environment, crude oil consumption and prices, market Thus, this paper analyses oil delivery schemes, trends in crude oil risks, oil cargo delivery and other issues are widely covered in production and processing, crude oil transportation capabilities scientific literature. Farzanegan and Markwardt (2009) reviewed and the refineries’ capacities, utilizing quantitative data analysis the relationship between oil price fluctuations and Iran’s key approach. macro-economic variables. Tang et al. (2010) studied the impact of crude oil price fluctuations on the economy of China. Marashdeh This approach can be used in development of the energy policy and Afandi (2017) analyzed the impact of oil price changes on programs for other regions of the world. Its application will help stock market returns in three largest oil-producing countries in the detect the transportation infrastructure opportunities, the trends world. (Rafiq et al., 2009) investigates into the influence of crude 18 International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy | Vol 8 • Issue 5 • 2018 Klepikov and Klepikov: Crude Oil Logistics, Production and Refining in Northern Europe oil price on Thailand’s economic parameters. Bayar and Kilic methods of addressing the same, and described their implementation (2014) studied the effect of changes in oil prices on the industrial methods. Kazemi and Szmerekovsky (2015) propose a linear production growth in the Eurozone member countries. Alkhateeb programming model to determine the most appropriate supplies of et al. (2017) determined the correlation between oil revenue and oil to refineries. The model minimizes costs in the oil supply chain, employment level. Nadal et al. (2017) studied the impact of leaps in refineries and product distribution centers. Venus Lun et al. (2012) in crude oil prices and the stock market yield. Ji and Fan (2015) present the evolution of problems as may arise during oil marine consider fluctuations in prices for the basic oil grades on the global transportation. Panagiotis and Georgia (2013) studied transportation market. Gallo et al. (2010) study the correlation between oil prices, of energy resources in the regions of Middle East and Central Asia. consumption and output for a number of countries. (Askari and Klepikov (2017) reviews the multi-modal logistics of oil supplies Krichene, 2010) review the impact of key interest rates and USD to Southern Europe. Europe is one of the world’s major crude oil exchange rate on oil markets. Morecroft et al. (1992) proposed the refining regions. Guliyev et al. (2017) presented development simulation model of the oil market behavior. Ibrayeva et al. (2018) issues oil refining industry in the countries of the Baltic Sea region. analyzed the potential of the Caspian basin and its importance Oil delivery and refining evaluation is an important subject when for Europe. Li et al. (2018) elaborated the models using the elaborating and implementing the energy policy programs in that combination method for oil consumption forecasting. (Halkos region. The transportation system’s capabilities to deliver products, and Tzeremes, 2011) investigate into economic efficiency and oil capacities of the refinery owners, and refineries’ throughput are the consumption in developed and developing countries. Ozturk et al. key indicators of oil supply and refining processes. This problem has (2009) and Yaprakli and Kaplan (2015), analyzed Turkish primary not been sufficiently addressed in literature, which makes it topical. energy needs. Global reduction in oil demand and consumption is reviewed in Goldemberg and Prado (2013). Lund (2017) considers Finland’s decision to stop using coal and reduce oil consumption. 3. GEOGRAPHICAL SCOPE Harvey (2017) reviews the efforts to eliminate global demand for oil by 2060. European countries produce much oil and most of them have a network of refineries on their territory. However, in this research Oliveira et al. (2016) analyzed the delivery system from a marine we include those having a marine boundary along the Northern terminal to the refinery’s oil pipeline and elaborated the optimization Sea and the Baltic Sea (from Ireland in the west to Finland in the model with the view to uncertainty of oil supplies to the terminal. To east) (Figure 1). minimize the refineries’ overall costs, Guajardo et al. (2013) presents the model for comprehensive planning of production, transportation These twelve countries are the main contributors to the oil and sales of refined products. Al-Othman et al. (2008) is devoted to production and refining process. In the year 2015, more than a stochastic model of the supply chain planning for oil companies. 90% of all European oil was produced by these countries and Authors show in this model that the economic uncertainty forces they refined more than 50% of all produced and imported oil as oil-producing countries to maintain the oil refining oil export well. Therefore, further analysis in this paper will be focused on balance. Aboudi et al. (1989) dwells on the key milestones of the these particular countries: Germany, UK, Netherlands, Belgium, oilfield development project and the transportation system design. Belarus, Sweden, Poland, Norway, Finland, Lithuania, Denmark The authors elaborated a mathematical model, determined the and Ireland. Figure 1: Countries - main oil producers in the Northern Europe International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy | Vol 8 • Issue 5 • 2018 19 Klepikov and Klepikov: Crude Oil Logistics, Production and Refining in Northern Europe 4. GLOBAL TENDENCIES IN THE OIL solve this problem. Jacobson et al. (2005) employed Gini index to PRODUCTION IN THE NORTHERN determine the inequality in electricity consumption by households in some countries. To estimate the concentration in placement REGION of European ports, Notteboom (1997) investigates into Gini and Herfindahl-Hirshmann indices. Yang and Dong (2016) used Gini 1 Long-term forecasts predict annual reduction in oil consumption and Herfindahl-Hirshmann indices to study the concentration in Europe down to 2035. The global trend towards curtailing of of placement of oil companies’ headquarters. When addressing crude oil consumption has already triggered the dramatic drop in this objective, we will determine trends for Gini and Herfindahl- refining capacities in a number of European countries and in turn Hirshmann for the studied indicators. slowed down the infrastructure development of the European oil transportation system. That is also true for the Northern region. Gini index determines to what extent the studied parameter differs Until the year 2013 there was steady decrease
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