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Newton-Le-Willows Interchange Full Business Case Dated December 2014

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Newton-Le-Willows Interchange Full Business Case Dated December 2014 Newton-le-Willows Interchange Full Business Case December 2014 Merseytravel Newton-le-Willows Interchange 335568 ITD ITN 03 B C:\Users\tay46325\Desktop\NLW Full Business Case Final Draft.docx 28 November 2014 Full Business Case Newton-le-Willows Interchange Full Business Case December 2014 Merseytravel Mann Island, PO Box 1976, Liverpool L69 3HN Mott MacDonald, 9th Floor, Royal Liver Building, Pier Head, Liverpool L3 1JH, United Kingdom T +44 (0)151 482 9910 F +44 (0)151 236 2985 W www.mottmac.com Newton-le-Willows Interchange Full Business Case Issue and revision record Revision Date Originator Checker Approver Description 01 28/11/14 JPT LM MF First Draft 02 03/12/14 JPT LM MF Minor text changes Information Class: Standard This document is issued for the party which commissioned it We accept no responsibility for the consequences of this and for specific purposes connected with the above-captioned document being relied upon by any other party, or being used project only. It should not be relied upon by any other party or for any other purpose, or containing any error or omission used for any other purpose. which is due to an error or omission in data supplied to us by other parties. This document contains confidential information and proprietary intellectual property. It should not be shown to other parties without consent from us and from the party which commissioned it. 335568/ITD/ITN/03/B 28 November 2014 C:\Users\tay46325\Desktop\NLW Full Business Case Final Draft.docx Newton-le-Willows Interchange Full Business Case Contents Chapter Title Page 1 Scheme Summary 1 1.1 Introduction ________________________________________________________________________ 1 1.2 Strategic Need _____________________________________________________________________ 2 1.3 Economic Benefits __________________________________________________________________ 3 1.4 Financial Case _____________________________________________________________________ 4 1.5 Timescale for Delivery _______________________________________________________________ 4 2 Strategic Case 6 2.1 Introduction ________________________________________________________________________ 6 2.2 Background to the Scheme ___________________________________________________________ 6 2.3 Existing Situation ___________________________________________________________________ 9 2.4 Identified Problems and Issues _______________________________________________________ 20 2.5 Need for Change __________________________________________________________________ 26 2.6 Scheme Description ________________________________________________________________ 31 2.7 Option Appraisal ___________________________________________________________________ 39 2.8 Strategic Fit ______________________________________________________________________ 43 2.9 Political Support for the Scheme ______________________________________________________ 48 2.10 Conclusions ______________________________________________________________________ 49 3 Economic Case 50 3.1 Introduction _______________________________________________________________________ 50 3.2 Demand Forecasts _________________________________________________________________ 50 3.3 Economic Appraisal Methodology _____________________________________________________ 55 3.4 Assumptions ______________________________________________________________________ 57 3.5 Appraisal Results __________________________________________________________________ 59 3.6 Social and Distributional Impacts ______________________________________________________ 60 3.7 Environmental Impacts ______________________________________________________________ 63 3.8 Wider Economic Impacts ____________________________________________________________ 64 3.9 Appraisal Summary Table ___________________________________________________________ 66 3.10 Analysis of Monetised Costs and Benefits _______________________________________________ 66 3.11 Value for Money Statement __________________________________________________________ 66 3.12 Sensitivity Tests – Alternative Growth Forecasts __________________________________________ 67 3.13 Sensitivity Tests – Alternative Operating Costs ___________________________________________ 69 3.14 Previous Analysis __________________________________________________________________ 70 3.15 Conclusions ______________________________________________________________________ 72 4 Financial Case 73 4.1 Introduction _______________________________________________________________________ 73 4.2 Assumptions ______________________________________________________________________ 73 4.3 Base Costs _______________________________________________________________________ 74 4.4 Land Ownership ___________________________________________________________________ 75 4.5 Quantified Risk Assessment __________________________________________________________ 77 335568/ITD/ITN/03/B 28 November 2014 C:\Users\tay46325\Desktop\NLW Full Business Case Final Draft.docx Newton-le-Willows Interchange Full Business Case 4.6 Optimism Bias ____________________________________________________________________ 78 4.7 Risk and Optimism Bias Adjustments ___________________________________________________ 78 4.8 Scheme Costs for Appraisal __________________________________________________________ 79 4.9 Preferred Funding Arrangements ______________________________________________________ 79 4.10 Alternative Funding Arrangements _____________________________________________________ 80 4.11 Assurance of Overspend ____________________________________________________________ 80 4.12 Conclusions ______________________________________________________________________ 81 5 Commercial Case 82 5.1 Introduction _______________________________________________________________________ 82 5.2 Output Based Specification __________________________________________________________ 82 5.3 Procurement Method _______________________________________________________________ 83 5.4 Programme Implications and Risk _____________________________________________________ 87 5.5 Conclusions ______________________________________________________________________ 89 6 Management Case 90 6.1 Introduction _______________________________________________________________________ 90 6.2 Governance ______________________________________________________________________ 90 6.3 Assurance _______________________________________________________________________ 99 6.4 Delivery Programme _______________________________________________________________ 101 6.5 Risk Management Strategy _________________________________________________________ 105 6.6 Communication and Stakeholder Management __________________________________________ 108 6.7 Monitoring and Evaluation __________________________________________________________ 117 6.8 Conclusions _____________________________________________________________________ 120 7 Summary and Conclusions 121 7.1 Summary _______________________________________________________________________ 121 7.2 Conclusions _____________________________________________________________________ 121 Tables Table 1.1: Headline costs and benefits of the scheme _______________________________________________ 2 Table 1.2: Justification of the Need for the Scheme _________________________________________________ 3 Table 1.3: Sources of funding for the scheme ______________________________________________________ 4 Table 1.4: Key milestones for the project _________________________________________________________ 4 Table 2.1: Annual demand at Newton-le-Willows, 2004-2013 _________________________________________ 12 Table 2.2: Annual demand at railway stations between Liverpool Lime Street and Manchester Victoria, 2012-201312 Table 2.3: Largest flows to/from Newton-le-Willows, 2011/12 _________________________________________ 13 Table 2.4: Travel to work data – proportion by rail from local area by mid-level super output area (MSOA) ______ 14 Table 2.5: Population and socio-economic data for the local area _____________________________________ 15 Table 2.6: JSA claims by area, May 2008 – May 2014 ______________________________________________ 15 Table 2.7: JSA claims by age range and duration of claim, May 2014 __________________________________ 16 Table 2.8: NEETs – comparison between St Helens Borough and Liverpool City Region ___________________ 16 Table 2.9: Proposed improvements to rail services at Newton-le-Willows _______________________________ 18 Table 2.10: Capacity changes on peak-hour services at Newton-le-Willows by December 2014 _______________ 19 335568/ITD/ITN/03/B 28 November 2014 C:\Users\tay46325\Desktop\NLW Full Business Case Final Draft.docx Newton-le-Willows Interchange Full Business Case Table 2.11: Seating capacities of existing and future units operating through Newton-le-Willows ______________ 19 Table 2.12: Synergy with other local schemes _____________________________________________________ 28 Table 2.13: Addressing the issues – which schemes solve which problems _______________________________ 42 Table 2.14: Strategic fit of scheme with national, regional and local polices _______________________________ 46 Table 3.1: Base demand (2011/12) at Newton-le-Willows (rounded to nearest hundred) ____________________ 51 Table 3.2: Forecast Do Minimum demand at Newton-le-Willows in 2018 ________________________________ 53 Table 3.3: Forecast Do Something demand at Newton-le-Willows in 2018 _______________________________ 55 Table 3.4: Change in vehicle kilometres as a result of the scheme, 2018 ________________________________
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