SWP Comments

Introduction

Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs

Indo–Pakistan Relations Problems and Prospects for a Sustained Rapprochement?

Christian Wagner SWP Comments

The first meeting between India’s new prime minister, Manmohan Singh, and Paki- stan’s president, Pervez Musharraf, on the periphery of the United Nations’ General Assembly on September 24, 2004, served to foster the rapprochement between both countries that started in April 2003. Although no spectacular initiatives were announced, the conciliatory tone of the two leaders’ speeches before the General Assembly and the joint statement released after their talks underscored the will on both sides to carry on with the cooperation that has been set in motion. The new dialog offers the possibility of expanding economic and social relations, something that may in turn help moderate the Kashmir conflict, which has strained bilateral relations for 57 years. Both sides have developed a new flexibility in the question of Kashmir, even if a quick solution is not on the horizon. The success of this rapproche- ment will depend on the Pakistani government’s ability to implement this change in foreign policy in the face of intense domestic opposition.

After the attack on the Indian Parliament anything, it was the personal ambition of in December 2001, relations between India Prime Minister Vajpayee that led to this and Pakistan quickly deteriorated. In the change in direction. summer of 2002, both countries were again After initial consultations in the summer on the brink of war. However, India’s efforts of 2003, Indian and Pakistan put forward to exploit the international war on terror- new initiatives in October and November ism to put pressure on Pakistan for sup- 2003. Particular attention was given to an porting Islamic militant groups were just Indian proposal to establish a bus line as unsuccessful as Pakistan’s attempts to between Srinagar, in the Indian-adminis- brand human rights violations committed tered state of Jammu and Kashmir, and by the Indian security forces in Kashmir Muzzafarabad, in Pakistani controlled Azad “state terrorism.” Then Indian Prime Kashmir. Pakistan proposed a cease-fire Minister Behari Vajpayee’s push for rap- along the line of control, which has since prochement one year before the 2004 par- remained in force. liamentary election marked the start of a A first highlight in the rapprochement new course in Indian policy. More than process was the 12th Summit of the South

SWP Comments 31 November 2004

1 Asian Association for Regional Cooperation give the population of Kashmir the oppor- (SAARC), January 4-6, 2004, in Islamabad. tunity to decide who is to have ultimate Against the backdrop of the thaw in sovereignty over the territory. The protests Indian–Pakistani relations, the joint decla- that erupted in Jammu and Kashmir in ration issued by President Musharraf and 1987 after fraudulent state elections esca- Prime Minister Vajpayee announcing the lated in the early 1990s to a bloody civil start of negotiations over contentious war. Pakistan criticized the massive human bilateral issues for the following month rights violations committed by Indian received more attention than the Agree- security forces, while India denounced ment on South Asian Free Trade Area, due Pakistan’s extensive support for militant to go into effect in 2006. In the declaration, groups. With the state elections of 1996 and Kashmir was called a bilateral problem, 2002 India restored the democratic process. which marked a departure from Pakistan’s After the split in the All-Party Hurriyat Con- previous position of advocating the inter- ference (APHC), the most important um- nationalization of the dispute. At the same brella organization for different Islamic time, President Musharraf declared that opposition groups in Kashmir, Prime terrorist activities launched from Pakistani Minister Vajpayee’s government began a territory against India would not be toler- dialog with the moderate forces The Indian ated. The negotiations embraced eight government wanted on the one hand to areas: Security and peace, which also in- consolidate the state government of Chief cluded a dialogue on confidence-building Minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, and on measures and the problem of Jammu and the other hand to integrate the Kashmir Kashmir, were handled by the foreign opposition into negotiations on a possible ministries. The defense ministries took up solution. Pakistan demands an agreement the situation on Siachen glacier, where the that the Kashmiris can approve and sup- border has yet to be unresolved and ports Syed Ali Shah Geelani, the leader of skirmishes take place regularly. Additional Jamaat-e-Islami, who represents the radical talks were dedicated to the Tulbul Naviga- wing of the APHC. tions Project, the border along Sir Creek, With release of political prisoners by terrorism and drug trafficking, economic India in early 2004 and the simultaneous cooperation, and trade as well as the gen- start of talks between the APHC and former eral strengthening of relations between Interior Minister L.K. Advani the dialog in the two countries. Jammu and Kashmir got underway. The With that, the contentious issues of the new Indian government, led by the Con- Kashmir conflict and bilateral ties between gress Party dominated United Progressive both countries became the subject of nego- Alliance, has continued the reconciliation tiations: first, the situation in Jammu and process since coming to power in May 2004. Kashmir and the issue of autonomy for the However, the spiral of violence has yet to region; second, the question of Kashmir’s end. During the summer, Indian officials future status; and third, the strengthening criticized both the increased infiltration of Indian–Pakistani relations beyond the of Islamic militants into Indian-adminis- Kashmir question. tered Kashmir and moderate represent- tatives of the APHC, but even high-ranking politicians, such as Chief Minister Sayeed, In Kashmir: have remained targets of attack by radical The question of autonomy groups. in Jammu and Kashmir Pakistan for a long time demanded the implementation of a referendum as pro- posed by several UN resolutions so as to

SWP Comments 31 November 2004

2 What kind of status for Kashmir? opposition to his policy. At the same time, The options for a solution rapprochement with India and the gradual For over 50 years, India and Pakistan have surrender of Kashmir calls into question both claimed the formerly independent the Pakistani military’s self-perception. Due principality of Kashmir. Several UN reso- to the Indian threat, Pakistan’s armed lutions, three wars, and various bilateral forces have come to receive up to 50 per- negotiations have yet to solve the conflict. cent of state expenditures per year. That Nevertheless, the once diametrically one of the would-be assassins belonged opposed positions have begun to change to Jaish-e-Mohammed, which operates in since the 2001-2002 crisis. Kashmir and has ties to parts of the army India no longer considers Kashmir a and the intelligence agency, indicates the domestic issue, but rather a bilateral one. broad spectrum of opposition to Mushar- With its most recent proposals, the Indian raf’s course. Nevertheless, the new flexi- government has let it be known that it bility of both sides is to be considered a could live with the partition of Kashmir success. The strengthening of bilateral along the present or a modified line of relations that now appears imminent also control. The construction of a security fence offers the possibility of defusing the con- to stop the infiltration of Islamic militants flict and reducing the threat of nuclear from Pakistan but also proposals for a bus escalation during a crisis. line running across the line of control, the expansion of trade and tourism in the region, and a relaxation of travel restric- Beyond Kashmir: tions for the Kashmiris have made it clear Expanding bilateral relations that India has come to consider the line Kashmir overshadows bilateral relations of control a de-facto border that should between India and Pakistan in every way. be made more porous for the region’s Shortly after independence, both states inhabitants. were still each other’s most important The situation in Pakistan is more com- trading partner. The conflict brought con- plicated. After the recent war in Iraq, a tact between the two countries to a near debate emerged in Islamabad on the costs complete standstill. A single border cros- of the Kashmir conflict, with doubts being sing bears witness to the reduction of raised about the usefulness of a foreign relations between the neighboring coun- policy focused almost entirely on India and tries to the bare essentials. Kashmir. President Musharraf is now pur- The most important element of the suing a four-point strategy. It embraces, recent rapprochement is to be seen in the first, the recognition that Kashmir is dis- expansion of bilateral relations. Both sides’ puted territory; second, that Kashmir diplomatic missions are operating at full occupies a position of great importance for staff for the first time since the 2002 crisis, bilateral relations with India; third, that all and new consulates have been opened in options unacceptable to the Indians, Pakis- Bombay and Karachi. Relaxation of visa tanis, and Kashmiris need to be excluded; requirements should improve travel op- and fourth, that the remaining possible portunities not only for artists but also for solutions have to be discussed. This strategy normal tourists. Students and business may at first seem vague, but it should not people also stand to benefit from greater be overlooked that Pakistan has backed off access to both countries. Joint film festivals from its earlier demand for a referendum. and working groups for combating film However, the assassination attempt on piracy, which affects the Indian film Indus- Musharraf in December 2003, shortly after try most of all, aim to deepen ties between he publicly questioned the validity of past the two countries. The cease-fire along the UN resolutions, shows that there is militant line of control is to be extended, and an

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3 additional hotline between the foreign own interests, as is very well understood. ministries is to be installed. Furthermore, The new flexibility of both sides in the confidence-building measures in the Kashmir questions is to be welcomed in nuclear field are set to expand. Even if the hope that it will set in motion a lasting Pakistan does not grant most-favored- process of negotiations. In light of the fact nation status to India, the turnover that the conflict has strained bilateral recorded in smuggling and trade in Indian relations for some 57 years, some tottering products via third countries to Pakistan on the diplomatic high wire is to be ex- indicate the potential greater economic pected in the future as well. India will con- cooperation could yield. The size of this tinue to criticize Pakistan’s inability to stop shadow economy is estimated to be ten for good the infiltration of Islamic mili- times the official trade of U.S.$204 million. tants, while Pakistan will condemn the New border points are to be built, air traffic Indian human rights violations in Kashmir. expanded, and the opening of bank offices Both countries will try to court the APHC

© Stiftung Wissenschaft und in both countries made possible. Additional factions closest to them so as to integrate Politik, 2004 starting points for cooperation include the Kashmiris into the process of finding a All rights reserved joint water management, the strengthen- solution.

SWP ing of mobile telephone networks, and The main burden of the rapprochement Stiftung Wissenschaft und energy. In the course of the rapprochement, process, however, rests on the shoulders Politik German Institute for talks on building a natural gas pipeline of the Pakistani government. With the International and from Iran to India have been revived. gradual retreat from the idea of a referen- Security Affairs Islamabad now seems to be willing to dum and the outlawing of Islamic groups Ludwigkirchplatz 3−4 offer security guarantees for such a project, agitating in Kashmir, Islamabad is, after 10719 Berlin Telephone +49 30 880 07-0 and New Delhi appears less concerned Afghanistan, giving up another pillar of its Fax +49 30 880 07-100 about possible economic extortion on the foreign policy. The permanence of the www.swp-berlin.org [email protected] part of Pakistan during a crisis. Indian–Pakistani rapprochement will Furthermore, the expansion of economic depend on the implementation of con- relations could reduce the dominance of fidence-building measures in Kashmir and the Pakistani military in relative terms the expansion of economic cooperation. and give economic matters greater weight Should the next snowmelt in the Himalayas in foreign and security policy decision- lead to an increase in infiltration and to making. Islamabad’s fear of Indian eco- new attacks, the recent rapprochement nomic superiority has abated, as Pakistani could quickly prove to be a mere interlude. products have proved capable of competing with the increasing number of imports from China.

Perspectives Indian–Pakistani relations have oscillated between the extremes of war and rap- prochement. The United States, China, Russia, and the European Union have long made it clear that they see bilateral nego- tiations as the proper forum for resoling the Kashmir conflict. Boosting economic cooperation opens up the possibility for bilateral relations between India and Pakistan beyond Kashmir, something that also lies in the international community’s

SWP Comments 31 November 2004

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