RESEARCH ARTICLE Potential Risk of Dengue and Chikungunya Outbreaks in Northern Italy Based on a Population Model of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) Giorgio Guzzetta1*, Fabrizio Montarsi2, Frédéric Alexandre Baldacchino3, Markus Metz3, Gioia Capelli2, Annapaola Rizzoli3, Andrea Pugliese4, Roberto Rosà3, Piero Poletti1,5, Stefano Merler1 a11111 1 Fondazione Bruno Kessler, Trento, Italy, 2 Laboratory of Parasitology, Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale delle Venezie, Padova, Italy, 3 Department of Biodiversity and Molecular Ecology, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all’Adige (TN), Italy, 4 Department of Mathematics, University of Trento, Trento, Italy, 5 Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy *
[email protected] OPEN ACCESS Citation: Guzzetta G, Montarsi F, Baldacchino FA, Abstract Metz M, Capelli G, Rizzoli A, et al. (2016) Potential The rapid invasion and spread of Aedes albopictus (Skuse, 1894) within new continents Risk of Dengue and Chikungunya Outbreaks in Northern Italy Based on a Population Model of Aedes and climatic ranges has created favorable conditions for the emergence of tropical arboviral albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae). PLoS Negl Trop Dis diseases in the invaded areas. We used mosquito abundance data from 2014 collected 10(6): e0004762. doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0004762 across ten sites in northern Italy to calibrate a population model for Aedes albopictus and Editor: Samuel V. Scarpino, Santa Fe Institute, estimate the potential of imported human cases of chikungunya or dengue to generate the UNITED STATES condition for their autochthonous transmission in the absence of control interventions. The Received: December 2, 2015 model captured intra-year seasonality and heterogeneity across sites in mosquito abun- Accepted: May 14, 2016 dance, based on local temperature patterns and the estimated site-specific mosquito habi- tat suitability.