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World Scientists' Warning to Humanity: a Second Notice

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World Scientists' Warning to Humanity: a Second Notice Viewpoint World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity: A Second Notice WILLIAM J. RIPPLE, CHRISTOPHER WOLF, THOMAS M. NEWSOME, MAURO GALETTI, MOHAMMED ALAMGIR, EILEEN CRIST, MAHMOUD I. MAHMOUD, WILLIAM F. LAURANCE, and 15,364 scientist signatories from 184 countries wenty-five years ago, the Union deforestation, and reverse the trend of the urgent steps needed to safeguard T of Concerned Scientists and more collapsing biodiversity. our imperilled biosphere. than 1700 independent scientists, On the twenty-fifth anniversary of As most political leaders respond to including the majority of living Nobel their call, we look back at their warn- pressure, scientists, media influencers, laureates in the sciences, penned the ing and evaluate the human response and lay citizens must insist that their 1992 “World Scientists’ Warning to by exploring available time-series governments take immediate action Humanity” (see supplemental file S1). data. Since 1992, with the exception as a moral imperative to current and These concerned professionals called of stabilizing the stratospheric ozone future generations of human and other on humankind to curtail environmen- layer, humanity has failed to make life. With a groundswell of organized tal destruction and cautioned that sufficient progress in generally solv- grassroots efforts, dogged opposition “a great change in our stewardship of ing these foreseen environmental chal- can be overcome and political leaders the Earth and the life on it is required, lenges, and alarmingly, most of them compelled to do the right thing. It is if vast human misery is to be avoided.” are getting far worse (figure 1, file S1). also time to re-examine and change In their manifesto, they showed that Especially troubling is the current our individual behaviors, including humans were on a collision course trajectory of potentially catastrophic limiting our own reproduction (ideally with the natural world. They expressed climate change due to rising GHGs to replacement level at most) and concern about current, impending, from burning fossil fuels (Hansen et al. drastically diminishing our per capita or potential damage on planet Earth 2013), deforestation (Keenan et al. consumption of fossil fuels, meat, and involving ozone depletion, freshwa- 2015), and agricultural production— other resources. ter availability, marine life depletion, particularly from farming ruminants The rapid global decline in ozone- ocean dead zones, forest loss, biodiver- for meat consumption (Ripple et al. depleting substances shows that we sity destruction, climate change, and 2014). Moreover, we have unleashed can make positive change when we continued human population growth. a mass extinction event, the sixth in act decisively. We have also made They proclaimed that fundamental roughly 540 million years, wherein advancements in reducing extreme changes were urgently needed to avoid many current life forms could be poverty and hunger (www.worldbank. the consequences our present course annihilated or at least committed to org). Other notable progress (which would bring. extinction by the end of this century. does not yet show up in the global The authors of the 1992 declara- Humanity is now being given a data sets in figure 1) include the tion feared that humanity was pushing second notice, as illustrated by these rapid decline in fertility rates in many Earth’s ecosystems beyond their capac- alarming trends (figure 1). We are regions attributable to investments in ities to support the web of life. They jeopardizing our future by not reining girls’ and women’s education (www. described how we are fast approach- in our intense but geographically and un.org/esa/population), the promising ing many of the limits of what the demographically uneven material decline in the rate of deforestation in biosphere can tolerate without consumption and by not perceiving some regions, and the rapid growth substantial and irreversible harm. continued rapid population growth as a in the renewable-energy sector. We The scientists pleaded that we stabi- primary driver behind many ecological have learned much since 1992, but lize the human population, describing and even societal threats (Crist et al. the advancement of urgently needed how our large numbers—swelled by 2017). By failing to adequately limit changes in environmental policy, another 2 billion people since 1992, population growth, reassess the role human behavior, and global inequities a 35 percent increase—exert stresses of an economy rooted in growth, is still far from sufficient. on Earth that can overwhelm other reduce greenhouse gases, incentivize Sustainability transitions come efforts to realize a sustainable future renewable energy, protect habitat, about in diverse ways, and all require (Crist et al. 2017). They implored that restore ecosystems, curb pollution, halt civil-society pressure and evidence- we cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emis- defaunation, and constrain invasive based advocacy, political leadership, sions and phase out fossil fuels, reduce alien species, humanity is not taking and a solid understanding of policy Downloaded fromhttps://academic.oup.com/bioscience https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article-abstract/doi/10.1093/biosci/bix125/4605229 XXXX XXXX / Vol. XX No. X • BioScience 1 by Oregon State University user on 13 November 2017 Viewpoint Ozone depletors (Mt CFC− Freshwater resources Reconstructed marine a. 11−equivalent per year) b. per capita (1000 m3) c. catch (Mt per year) 1.5 130 12 1.2 110 10 0.9 90 8 0.6 70 0.3 6 50 Dead zones (number Total forest Vertebrate species d. of affected regions) e. (billion ha) f. abundance (% of 1970) 100 600 4.10 80 400 4.05 60 200 4.00 40 CO emissions Temperature change Population g. 2 h. i. (Gt CO2 per year) (°C) (billion individuals) 1.00 7 30 0.75 6 0.50 5 Humans 20 0.25 4 3 Ruminant livestock 10 0.00 1960 1992 2016 1960 1992 2016 1960 1992 2016 Year Figure 1. Trends over time for environmental issues identified in the 1992 scientists’ warning to humanity. The years before and after the 1992 scientists’ warning are shown as gray and black lines, respectively. Panel (a) shows emissions of halogen source gases, which deplete stratospheric ozone, assuming a constant natural emission rate of 0.11 Mt CFC- 11-equivalent per year. In panel (c), marine catch has been going down since the mid-1990s, but at the same time, fishing effort has been going up (supplemental file S1). The vertebrate abundance index in panel (f) has been adjusted for taxonomic and geographic bias but incorporates relatively little data from developing countries, where there are the fewest studies; between 1970 and 2012, vertebrates declined by 58 percent, with freshwater, marine, and terrestrial populations declining by 81, 36, and 35 percent, respectively (file S1). Five-year means are shown in panel (h). In panel (i), ruminant livestock consist of domestic cattle, sheep, goats, and buffaloes. Note that y-axes do not start at zero, and it is important to inspect the data range when interpreting each graph. Percentage change, since 1992, for the variables in each panel are as follows: (a) –68.1%; (b) –26.1%; (c) –6.4%; (d) +75.3%; (e) –2.8%; (f) –28.9%; (g) +62.1%; (h) +167.6%; and (i) humans: +35.5%, ruminant livestock: +20.5%. Additional descriptions of the variables and trends, as well as sources for figure 1, are included in file S1. Downloaded from2 BioSciencehttps://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article-abstract/doi/10.1093/biosci/bix125/4605229• XXXX XXXX / Vol. XX No. X https://academic.oup.com/bioscience by Oregon State University user on 13 November 2017 Viewpoint instruments, markets, and other driv- loss, humanity must practice a Peter Stoel, Karen Josephson, Robin ers. Examples of diverse and effective more environmentally sustainable Comforto, Terralyn Vandetta, Luke steps humanity can take to transition alternative to business as usual. This Painter, Rodolfo Dirzo, Guy Peer, Peter to sustainability include the follow- prescription was well articulated by Haswell, and Robert Johnson. ing (not in order of importance or the world’s leading scientists 25 years urgency): (a) prioritizing the enact- ago, but in most respects, we have not Supplemental material ment of connected well-funded and heeded their warning. Soon it will be Supplementary data are available at well-managed reserves for a significant too late to shift course away from our BIOSCI online including supplemental proportion of the world’s terrestrial, failing trajectory, and time is running file 1 and supplemental file 2 (full list marine, freshwater, and aerial habi- out. We must recognize, in our day- of all 15,364 signatories). tats; (b) maintaining nature’s ecosys- to-day lives and in our governing tem services by halting the conversion institutions, that Earth with all its life References cited of forests, grasslands, and other native is our only home. Crist E, Mora C, Engelman R. 2017. The interac- habitats; (c) restoring native plant tion of human population, food production, Epilogue and biodiversity protection. Science 356: communities at large scales, particu- 260–264. larly forest landscapes; (d) rewilding We have been overwhelmed with the Hansen J, et al. 2013. Assessing “dangerous regions with native species, especially support for our article and thank the climate change”: Required reduction of apex predators, to restore ecological more than 15,000 signatories from all carbon emissions to protect young people, processes and dynamics; (e) devel- ends of the Earth (see supplemental future generations and nature. PLOS ONE 8 (art. e81648). oping and adopting adequate policy file S2 for list of signatories). As far as Keenan, RJ, Reams GA, Achard F, de Freitas JV, instruments to remedy defaunation, we know, this is the most scientists to Grainger A, Lindquist E. 2015. Dynamics the poaching crisis, and the exploi- ever co-sign and formally support a of global forest area: Results from the FAO tation and trade of threatened spe- published journal article.
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