Barring October surprises, expect a close election for the Commonwealth’s next governor An interview with Dr. Larry J. Sabato By Mike Belefski

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This interview with Dr. Larry J. Sabato, Director of the Center 3. Scandal—NO ADVANTAGE for Politics at The University of Virginia, that I conducted in late Both sides have big problems in this September indicates that on November 5th, we may have a cliffhanger category. It’s GreenTech versus Giftgate— race for governor, a Democratic lieutenant governor, and a toss-up and plenty more besides. Belefski contest for attorney general depending on circumstances that will occur during the last weeks of the 2013 campaign cycle. 4. Campaign Organization/Technology—NO ADVANTAGE Dr. Sabato, who authored “The Ten Keys to the Governor’s I’m not sure about this one yet. McAuliffe has bought the Obama Mansion” published in The University of Virginia Newsletter in voter contact technology that worked so well for the President in 2008 1998 was extremely accurate in analyzing prevailing political party and especially 2012. McAuliffe’s money edge is also enabling him to conditions in the general election for governor. From 1969 to 1977, run a much stronger campaign than Creigh Deeds did four years ago. he analyzed that when Republicans had only one to three advantages, But Cuccinelli has intense support among the GOP base from the Tea the winners were in 1981, Chuck Robb, (D) (53.5%); 1985, Gerald Party, NRA, and pro-life groups. Baliles, (D) (55.2%) and 1969 Doug Wilder, (D) (50.1%). When Democrats had only one to three advantages, the winners were in 5. Campaign Money—DEMOCRAT 1969, Linwood Holton, (R) (52.5%); 1973, Mills Godwin (R) McAuliffe has used his money-raising talent well, and probably will (50.7%); 1977 John Dalton, (R) (55.9%); 1993 George Allen, (R) retain a spending edge. But Cuccinelli isn’t being blown out of the water. (58.3%); and 1997 Jim Gilmore, (R) (55.8%). National conservatives and the Republican Governors Association are I asked Dr. Sabato for his thoughts on this campaign cycle based keeping him competitive, if behind, in the money game. on his “Ten Keys to the Governor’s Mansion.” He briefly commented on each of the current prevailing conditions 6. Candidate Personality/Appeal—NO ADVANTAGE as to which political party has the advantage—to let our readers This is a classic lesser-of-evils, process-of-elimination election. know whether the advantage in each area goes to the Democrats, Most votes are being generated by dislike of the other guy. As many Republicans or No Strong Advantage to one side. polls have shown, we’ve never had a gubernatorial election where the Barring a major impact event this October, the current outlook two major-party candidates had such low favorability ratings. looks like a close election with both the Democrats and the Republicans having an advantage in only two of the ten prevailing 7. Prior Office Experience of Candidates—REPUBLICAN conditions in the general election for governor. Cuccinelli’s service as a state senator and state AG is a traditional pathway to the governorship. McAuliffe has never served in public 1. Economy—NO ADVANTAGE office, like Mark Warner and Linwood Holton. Most Virginians believe the economy is decent but not roaring. 8. Retrospective Judgment on Previous Governor— It’s better than four years ago, but Democrats give the credit to President Obama and Republicans to Gov. Bob McDonnell. I don’t NO ADVANTAGE see a strong advantage here for either side. A year ago we all thought this might be one of the reasons why a Republican could get elected in 2013. Bob McDonnell was soaring 2. Party Unity—DEMOCRAT in the polls, and the last time a party got just one term in the Mansion Almost no Ds have defected to Cuccinelli. Moderate Republicans was in the 1880s. But Giftgate has made Governor McDonnell a by the score have endorsed McAuliffe or are not lifting a finger for neutral factor, at best. As this is written, we don’t know whether an Cuccinelli. And then there’s Bill Bolling, who appears to favor indictment is coming, or when, but regardless, too much has come out McAuliffe over Cuccinelli. for McDonnell to be of much help to Cuccinelli. They aren’t exactly close anyway. Continued on next page

Virginia Capitol Connections, Summer/Fall 2013 4