Current Status and Vulnerability to Climate Change

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Current Status and Vulnerability to Climate Change University of Alaska Coastal Marine Institute Biogeochemical Assessment of the OCS Arctic Waters: Current Status and Vulnerability to Climate Change Principal Investigattor Jeremy Mathis1, 2 Graduate Student Jessica Cross1, 2 Co-Investigators Nicholas Bates3, Cathy Cosca2, Seth Danielson4, Wiley Evans1,2, Richard Feely2, Karen Frey5, Marlene Jeffries6, Michael Lomasa 7, Natalie Monacci1, Brradley Moraan8, Jennifer Questel4, Phyllis Stabeno2, and Taro Takahashi9 1Ocean Acidification Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks 2National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Pacific Marinee Environmental Laboratory 3Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences 4School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks 5Graduate School of Geography, Clark University 6Victoria Experimental Undersea Network, Ocean Networks Canada 7Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciencese 8Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island 9Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University FINAL REPORT October 2014 OCS Study BOEM 2014-668 Contact Information: email: [email protected] phone: 907.474.6782 fax: 907.474.7204 Coastal Marine Institute School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences University of Alaska Fairbanks P. O. Box 757220 Fairbanks, AK 99775-7220 This study was funded in part by the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) through Cooperative Agreement M08AX12760 between BOEM, Alaska Outer Continental Shelf Region, and the University of Alaska Fairbanks. This report, OCS Study BOEM 2014-668, is available through the Coastal Marine Institute, select federal depository libraries and electronically from http://www.boem.gov/Environmental-Stewardship/Environmental-Studies/Alaska- Region/Index.aspx. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as representing the opinions or policies of the U.S. Government. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute their endorsement by the U.S. Government. Table of Contents Page Table of Contents ......................................................................................................................... iii List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... xi List of Tables ................................................................................................................................xv List of Abbreviations and Acronyms ...................................................................................... xvii Copyright Information ............................................................................................................. xxii Abstract ..................................................................................................................................... xxiii Executive Summary ................................................................................................................. xxiv Chapter 1: Review of OCS Study BOEM 2014-668 ...................................................................1 1.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................1 1.1.1 Climate Change Impacts on Food Webs: Sea-ice ...........................................2 1.1.2 Climate Change Impacts on Biogeochemistry: Ocean Acidification .............2 1.1.3 Linking the Bering and Chukchi Seas: The Alaskan OCS as One System ....3 1.1.4 Improving Predictive Capacity .......................................................................4 1.1.5 OCS Study BOEM 2014-668: Report Content ...............................................4 1.2 Hypotheses and Objectives ............................................................................................4 1.3 Methods and Datasets ....................................................................................................6 1.3.1 Hydrographic Structure of the Eastern Bering Sea Shelf ...............................6 1.3.2 Sampling Strategy for the BEST Program on the Eastern Bering Sea Shelf ..7 1.3.3 Hydrographic Structure and Sampling Strategy for the Chukchi Sea Shelf ...9 1.3.4 Analytical Methods .......................................................................................11 1.3.4.1 Net Community Production (NCP): Eastern Bering Sea Shelf .....11 1.3.4.2 Elemental Mass Balances: Eastern Bering Sea Shelf ....................12 1.3.4.3 Sea-Air CO2 Fluxes: Eastern Bering Sea Shelf .............................13 1.3.4.4 Ocean Acidification: Eastern Bering Sea and Western Arctic OCS ............................................................................................................14 1.4 Results and Discussion ................................................................................................17 1.4.1 Net Community Production in the Bering Sea .............................................17 1.4.2 Export of Organic Carbon from the Surface Layer : The Eastern Bering Sea ..........................................................................................................................19 1.4.3 Integrated Assessment of the Eastern Bering Sea Carbon Budget ...............20 1.4.4 Sea-air CO2 Fluxes in the Bering Sea ...........................................................22 iii Page 1.4.5 Ocean Acidification in the Bering Sea..........................................................24 1.4.6 Sea-air CO2 Fluxes and Ocean Acidification in the Northeastern Chukchi Sea ..........................................................................................................................29 1.4.7 Empirical Algorithm Development...............................................................31 1.5 Conclusions ..................................................................................................................32 1.5.1 Fundamental Controls on the Magnitude and Fate of NCP in the Bering Sea ..........................................................................................................................32 1.5.2 Duration, Intensity, and Extent of Undersaturation Events and Ocean Acidification ..........................................................................................................33 1.5.3 Linking OA Processes in the Bering and Northeastern Chukchi Seas .........35 1.5.4 Towards Better Predictive Capacity for OA Processes ................................35 1.6 Summary of Delivered Products ..................................................................................36 1.6.1 Presentations at National and International Meetings ................................. 36 1.6.2 Posters at National and International Meetings ............................................37 1.6.3 Local Presentations .......................................................................................37 1.7 References ....................................................................................................................38 Chapter 2: Seasonal distribution of dissolved inorganic carbon and net community production on the Bering Sea Shelf ............................................................................................47 2.0 Abstract ........................................................................................................................47 2.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................47 2.2 Background ..................................................................................................................49 2.2.1 Hydrography of the Bering Sea shelf............................................................49 2.2.1.1 Geographic Domains and Frontal Systems ....................................49 2.2.1.2 Hydrographic Structure ..................................................................50 2.2.1.3 Nutrients .........................................................................................51 2.2.2 Primary Production in the Bering Sea .........................................................51 2.2.2.1 Primary Production Variability Within the Different Bering Sea Shelf Domains .....................................................................................52 2.2.2.2 Other Physical and Biogeochemical Controls on PP .....................53 2.2.3 Net Community Production ..........................................................................53 2.3 Methods........................................................................................................................54 2.3.1 Field Sampling ..............................................................................................54 2.3.2 Laboratory Analysis ......................................................................................55 iv Page 2.3.3 Estimates of NCP ..........................................................................................55 2.4 Results ..........................................................................................................................56 2.4.1 Frontal Systems and Hydrographic Structure ...............................................56 2.4.2 Spatial and Seasonal Distribution of Inorganic Nutrients: Nitrate, Phosphate, Silicate, and Dissolved Oxygen .............................................................................56 2.4.3 Spatial and Seasonal Distributions of DIC ...................................................57
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