AN COMUNN GÀIDHEALACH the Royal National Mod Western Isles 2016 Evaluation of Economic Impact Final Report

AN COMUNN GÀIDHEALACH The Royal National Mod Western Isles 2016 Evaluation of Economic Impact Final Report 10 Jerviswood Drive, LANARK ML11 7RT Tel: 01555 661416. Email: [email protected] January 2017 AN COMUNN GAIDHEALACH The Royal National Mod Western Isles 2016 CONTENTS Page No. 1. STUDY OBJECTIVES AND APPROACH 1 The Royal National Mòd Future Threats 2. FIELD SURVEY RESULTS AND ANALYSIS 4 Field Survey Results Media Exposure 3. ECONOMIC IMPACT AND OTHER ANALYSES 17 Impact Analysis Inputs The Calculation of Impacts 4. SUMMARY 23 Conclusions Key Findings Appendix The Field Survey Questionnaire 27 Evaluation of Economic Impact Final Report Contents AN COMUNN GAIDHEALACH The Royal National Mod Western Isles 2016 1. THE BACKGROUND The Royal National Mòd Future Threats The Royal National Mòd An Comunn Gaidhealach was established in 1891. A year later, it organised the first National Mòd which was held in Oban in1892. Since then, the event has been held in every year except the World War years. This is a remarkable achievement, especially when one takes account of the Charitable Trust status of An Comunn Gaidhealach. Nowadays the executive work in organising and staging the Royal National Mòd is the responsibility of its small team under the leadership of its Chief Executive. Such has been the success of An Comunn in recent times that it is easy to believe that it will inevitably go on forever. This may prove to be the case but it is not a cause for complacency. The Mòd needs the support of others if it is to survive and prosper. These observations are not made in any judgemental way: they are simply facts that have to be taken into account in making evaluations of any kind and - more importantly - in charting a way forward for a fragile organisation which does not have huge financial reserves to call upon – and the Mòd is an event that takes both time and money to organise. All of the host areas benefit from the money left at the end of the summer season and before winter has arrived. Without the Mòd injection of cash in October these host areas - to varying extents – would be less protected from the worst economic ravages of winter. Many of them are in relatively fragile Highland rural locations in which the mainstay of the economy is the tourism industry. Whilst the Royal National Mòd is not necessarily seen as part of the tourism industry, the substantial amount of money that it leaves in these areas at the end of the summer season is extremely important to the survival of the rural economy during the coming relatively quiet winter months. This can amount to up to £3 million at today’s prices, which is a very significant contribution indeed to the local economy. Indeed, such has been the success of the event in recent years that there is very real competition amongst host areas to host this premium annual event which brings so much business to local economies at exactly the right time of the year. Having said that, the spending does multiply far beyond the local economy too – the charter flights from Islay alone leading to a minimum investment in the Scottish transport industry of £57,000! However, there are also threats which can sometimes come from unexpected sources. Numbers attending the big events such as the Gold Medal Finals and the Evaluation of Economic Impact Final Report Page 1 AN COMUNN GAIDHEALACH The Royal National Mod Western Isles 2016 Lovat & Tullibardine Shield were marginally down this year and senior figures within An Comunn have debated if this could be caused by live televising on BBC Alba. There is currently no proof to either support or deny this but it could well be a question that should be included in next year’s research questionnaire. Against this backdrop, John Swinney – the Education Minister and Deputy to Nicola Sturgeon - not only allocated more money for Gaelic Medium education this year but also robustly defended this decision in the light of the criticisms it received. He also chose to deliver his rebuttal whilst he was at the 2016 Mòd in the Western Isles. In so doing, he made the point that the Gaelic language was an integral part of Scotland’s heritage and that he would continue to support it as best he could in these difficult times. It was also good to see a return visit from the Prince Charles, especially since it was his second Mòd attendance in relatively recent times. Last year we found that 66% of those asked about the contribution the Mòd made to the two main Scottish Government objectives of encouraging the take-up and use of the language felt that it made a very significant contribution indeed. The survey response was rather less positive this year, but this is not surprising in Islands that regularly use the Gaelic language and need no external encouragement to do so. The tremendous support received each year from the host area Local Authority also has to be acknowledged, and it was again made available to An Comunn by the Western Isles Council in 2016. Future Threats Our main objective each year is to provide the evaluation required by An Comunn Gàidhealach. There is also keen interest in the evaluation results from the particular host area as well as from the media. In addition, the consistency of the approach adopted in recent years has allowed the comparisons across host areas referred to above to be examined in a little more detail. The cornerstone of the approach is provided by the research that is undertaken through one to one interviews with those attending the event each year. This was the responsibility of a team from Edinburgh Napier University under the leadership of Dr Kathy Velander but she decided last year that it would be her final involvement. This year we have therefore returned to Lomond Market Research whom we have previously used to undertake the research interviews. The findings produced by the Lomond team are drawn upon heavily in firstly determining the number of unique and eligible visitors who attended the Mòd in the Western Isles in 2016. Based on the latter, we are then able to assess the various spending levels and impacts at each of two evaluation area levels: the Western Isles and Scotland as a whole. However, we have also drawn upon the records kept by An Comunn on competitors. This gives us a very good, accurate number of competitors at this and Evaluation of Economic Impact Final Report Page 2 AN COMUNN GAIDHEALACH The Royal National Mod Western Isles 2016 previous events. The press coverage received is another important evaluation measure. We are fortunate in being able to draw upon the outputs provided by the media company employed by An Comunn to assess this, their outputs being presented inn Chapter 2 after our consideration of the Field Research outputs. The evaluation process is relatively complicated, but we have been consistent in its application over the years. The whole process begins with the field research findings which follow in Chapter 2. Evaluation of Economic Impact Final Report Page 3 AN COMUNN GAIDHEALACH The Royal National Mod Western Isles 2016 2. FIELD SURVEY RESULTS AND ANALYSIS Field Survey Results Media Exposure Field Survey Results As well as the various Mòd funders and An Comunn itself there is also keen interest in the evaluation results from the particular host area as well as from the media, as previously mentioned – but worthy of repetition. In addition, the consistency of the approach adopted in recent years has allowed the comparisons across these host areas to be examined in a little more detail. The cornerstone of the approach is provided by the research that is undertaken through one to one interviews with those attending the event each year. As noted earlier the An Comunn competitor records are also very important to the evaluation process in that they are drawn upon heavily in determining the number of unique and eligible visitors who attended the Mòd in the Western Isles in 2016. Based on the survey information we are also able to assess the various spending levels and impacts on the Western Isles and Scotland as a whole. We also concluded last year - on the basis of consistent evidence over the years - that around one third of Mòd attendees were competitors. This year, however, the number of competitors was found to be 44% of total attendees. This was due to an over concentration of interviews in one of the performance venues where competitors gathered: what should have happened was that interviews should have been conducted across venues through approaching those going to and coming from different competitions in the different venues which included the Lewis Sports Hall as well as An Lanntair. After considerable thought we believe that the best way forward would be to accept the 44% figure of 2016 but to also include the percentage of competitors in the 2011 Mòd in the Western Isles which we also evaluated. We then took an average over the two years which produced a competitor percentage of 40%. The interviewing error was made by the interviewers in innocence: the problem lay in their briefing for which we must partly take the blame. However, we also believe that the adjustment we have made has led to a robust competitor percentage and we are confident that the overall evaluation has produced wholly credible outputs. In summary, we believe that an adjustment in the percentage of competitors is justified on the grounds of past experience and the jump in the percentage of competitors in 2016.

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