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Nick Tedeschi's NRL Tips Sheet: Round 6

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Nick Tedeschi's NRL Tips Sheet: Round 6 Nick Tedeschi's NRL Tips Sheet: Round 6 Round 5 Results: 20 units bet, +1.16 units, +5.8% POT ​ Newcastle v Brisbane There is too much confusion about this one to be able to bet it confidently. There is no question the Knights are a better team. They are faster, better coached, possess more experience and have maybe the best three players on the paddock. The Knights though are a poor 6-13 ATS since 2008 against the Broncos though and favourites of more than a converted try off a double digit loss cover at just 44%. Brisbane have some good numbers, covering 12 of 19 as an underdog off a loss and 11 of 16 interstate getting 4 or more. The Broncos aren’t under the same searing pressure this week though and there is no Kotoni Staggs so cannot be getting involved. Tip: Newcastle ​ Recommended Bet: No Bet ​ South Sydney v New Zealand Close to coming into a bet with the Warriors here getting 7.5 points. The Rabbitohs are in a definite play-against spot. They have covered just 4 of 13 when favoured and just 6 of 15 when favoured by 6.5 or more. Souths have covered just 1 of 4 at Bankwest and only 6 of 18 night games. Favourites of 6.5 or more off scoring 30 cover at just 42% in the first eight rounds of the season. The Warriors have covered 13 of 17 in Australia but it is hard to know what kind of Warriors will show up here. Tip: South Sydney ​ Recommended Bet: No Bet ​ Penrith v Melbourne Melbourne’s record against Penrith is as dominant as any team has in the premiership. They have won 18 of the last 20 meetings with a 13-4 cover record since 2008. That history of superiority has tempered enthusiasm for the Panthers this week making them just a small bet rather than a strong play. The number really stack up for the Panthers though. Local underdogs of 4.5 or more in the first 8 rounds of the year cover at 59% and Penrith are very good underdogs, going 15-9 ATS getting more than a converted try and 11 of 16 as an underdog in NSW. There is a big angle against Melbourne here as well: Interstate favourites of 4 or more are 29-52 ATS in the first eight rounds of the season. There is an under play in this even with the low total. The under hits at 62% when the Storm are favoured by 4 or more points. The under is also 28-18 when Penrith are an underdog and 13-3 when Penrith are an underdog of 4 or more in NSW. The under has hit in 12 of 17 Panthers-Storm games. Tip: Melbourne ​ Recommended Bet: Under 35.5 @ $1.90 (Bet 365, Sportsbet) - 1.5 units ​ Penrith +6.5 @ $1.85 (Pointsbet) - 1.5 units Gold Coast v St George Illawarra The over is an outstanding play in this clash between the bottom two teams. These two have a long history of high-scoring affairs where defence is an option often passed on. Five of the last eight clashes have remarkably finished north of 54 points. The over is 21-15 in Titans day games and 11-6 when they are off scoring 12 or more. The over has hit in 7 of 10 Dragons day games. Neither of these teams can defend with the Titans conceding 23 or more in their last 17. This line will get to 44 or larger come kickoff if the weather holds. Tip: Gold Coast ​ Recommended Bet: Over 41.5 @ $1.90 (Bet 365) - 3.5 units ​ Wests Tigers v North Queensland Happy to bet against North Queensland and happy to do so for a while yet, particularly with Valentine Holmes on the sideline. They were an utter disgrace against the Warriors last week. Any semblance of effort would have got them the win. No Holmes and no Morgan as well as a flaky backline make the Cowboys unplayable. It is astonishing they are favoured interstate here with the Tigers getting a legitimate home ground. The Tigers are 18-12 ATS as an underdog at night and have covered six straight as an underdog off a poor attacking performance. The Cowboys have covered just 7 of 20 when favoured. The Tigers have won five of six against the Cowboys and 14 of 16 against the Cowboys in Sydney. They have also covered 14 of 16 overall against the Cowboys since 2008. Tip: Wests Tigers ​ Recommended Bet: Wests Tigers +2 @ $1.90 (Sportsbet) - 3 units ​ Sydney Roosters v Parramatta Parramatta lead the premiership but it is the Sydney Roosters who are operating at levels above the competition. They have been absolutely incredible since the hiatus with the new rules helping them more than probably any other team. They have scored a remarkable 111 points the last two weeks and conceded just six. They have historically dominated the Eels with 10 wins in the last 13 including three straight. The Roosters have piled on 32 points in six of the last nine meetings. They hold their form well with and 8-3 cover record when they are off three straight covers. The Eels have covered just 3 of 10 as an underdog. The Roosters are going to bring the Eels back to reality. Tip: Sydney Roosters ​ Recommended Bet: Sydney Roosters -4.5 @ $1.90 (Pointsbet, Sportsbet) - 2 units ​ Canberra v Manly Keen to bet Manly here getting a start of 4.5 against the Raiders. These are two legitimate title contenders and this start seems a little large with Manly arguably closer to home at the neutral Campbelltown venue. The Sea Eagles have a great record against the Raiders. Manly have won 18 of the last 24 against Canberra with six straight covers. The Sea Eagles are 31-16 ATS as an underdog and 19-9 ATS as an underdog getting 4 or more points. They have covered 10 of their last 14 off conceding 18 or more. Favourites of 4.5 or more off conceding 6 or fewer cover at 41%. The Sea Eagles are a nice bet. Tip: Manly ​ Recommended Bet: Manly +4.5 @ $1.91 (Bet 365) - 3 units ​ Cronulla v Canterbury This is a fairly straight-up trend play to finish the round off. Cronulla are awful favourites. They have covered just 17 of 48 when favoured in the market and 12 of 31 when favoured by at least a try. Canterbury have covered 30-18 as an underdog of 4.5 or more. The Bulldogs can knock off the miserable Sharks. Tip: Canterbury ​ Recommended Bet: Canterbury +5.5 @ $1.90 (Pointsbet) - 2.5 units ​.
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