A Horizon Scan of Global Conservation Issues for 2010
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TREE-1198; No of Pages 7 Update Forum A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2010 William J. Sutherland1, Mick Clout2, Isabelle M. Coˆ te´ 3, Peter Daszak4, Michael H. Depledge5, Liz Fellman6, Erica Fleishman7, Rachel Garthwaite8, David W. Gibbons9, Jennifer De Lurio10, Andrew J. Impey6, Fiona Lickorish11, David Lindenmayer12, Jane Madgwick13, Ceri Margerison14, Trevor Maynard15, Lloyd S. Peck16, Jules Pretty17, Stephanie Prior1, Kent H. Redford18,Jo¨ rn P.W. Scharlemann19, Mark Spalding20 and Andrew R. Watkinson21 1 Department of Zoology, Cambridge University, Downing Street Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK 2 Centre for Biodiversity and Biosecurity, School of Biological Sciences, University of Auckland, PB 92019, Auckland, New Zealand 3 Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6, Canada 4 Wildlife Trust, 460 West 34th Street, 17th Floor, New York, NY 10001, USA 5 Peninsula Medical School, Research Way, Plymouth, PL6 8BU, UK 6 Natural Environment Research Council, Polaris House, North Star Avenue, Swindon, SN2 1EU 7 Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, 2400 Bren Hall, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-5131, USA 8 The Royal Society, 6-9 Carlton House Terrace, SW1Y 5AG, UK 9 Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, The Lodge, Sandy, Bedfordshire, SG19 2DL, UK 10 Environment Agency, Rivers House, Lower Bristol Road, Bath, BA2 9ES, UK 11 Defra, Nobel House, 17 Smith Square, London, SW1P 3JR, UK 12 Fenner School of Environment and Society, Building 48, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia 13 Wetlands International, PO Box 471, 6700 AL Wageningen, The Netherlands 14 British Ecological Society, Charles Darwin House, 12 Roger Street, London, WC1N 2JL, UK 15 Lloyd’s, One Lime Street, London, EC3 M 7HA, UK 16 British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge, CB3 0ET, UK 17 Centre for Environment and Society, Dept of Biological Sciences, University of Essex, Colchester CO4 3SQ, UK 18 WCS Institute, Wildlife Conservation Society, 2300 Southern Blvd., Bronx, NY 10460 USA 19 United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, CB3 0DL, UK 20 Global Marine Team, The Nature Conservancy, 93 Centre Drive, Newmarket, CB8 8AW, UK 21 Living With Environmental Change, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK Horizon scanning identifies emerging issues in a given Horizon scanning is performed increasingly by corpor- field sufficiently early to conduct research to inform ations and governments, particularly across Europe. It has policy and practice. Our group of horizon scanners, been undertaken for more than a decade in medicine and including academics and researchers, convened to allied fields to anticipate and facilitate responses to rapid identify fifteen nascent issues that could affect the con- technological change. Sutherland and Woodroof [1] servation of biological diversity. These include the suggested that horizon scanning could identify both poten- impacts of and potential human responses to climate tial new threats to biological diversity (in terms of struc- change, novel biological and digital technologies, novel ture, composition and function) and new opportunities for pollutants and invasive species. We expect to repeat this its conservation. The aim of horizon scanning is not to process and collation annually. predict the future, but to identify emerging issues in sufficient time to initiate research and develop policy and practical responses. Introduction The need for horizon scanning of environmental issues For science to be relevant and useful, it must be offered at is illustrated by the recent failure to foresee both the the appropriate times in decision-making processes. widespread adoption of the range of biofuels currently in Excellent science completed after critical decisions have use, and the environmental consequences of biofuels pro- been made is of limited use. Horizon scanning – the duction. Many, including some conservationists, initially systematic search for incipient trends, opportunities emphasised the environmental benefits of biofuels. It is and risks that may affect the probability of achieving only relatively recently that the costs have become widely management goals and objectives – can, if conducted early recognised [2,3]. This example also demonstrates that new enough, increase the capacity to adapt. Credible infor- threats or opportunities may be caused by a series of mation about these nascent issues can be used to prioritise events. Thus, in hindsight, horizon scanning might have research and to inform policy development and strategic identified three phenomena during the process of biofuels planning. research and implementation: development of the technol- ogy decades ago, the initial production of commercial Corresponding author: Sutherland, W.J. ([email protected]). biofuel crops and the recent advocacy of biofuels. 0169-5347/$ – see front matter ß 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.tree.2009.10.003 Available online xxxxxx 1 TREE-1198; No of Pages 7 Update Trends in Ecology and Evolution Vol.xxx No.x Sutherland et al. [4] used horizon scanning to identify a Nanosilver in wastewater series of broad issues affecting the status and trends of Of the more than 800 nanotechnology products available to biological diversity in the United Kingdom. The review the average consumer at least 20% use nanosilver – nano- presented here differs in geographic scope, presenting particles of silver or silver oxide or silver ions – as an active issues from across the globe. We envisage repeating this ingredient [11]. Nanoscale silver is primarily used as an exercise annually to bring forthcoming issues to the atten- antimicrobial with widespread potential uses in the man- tion of researchers and policymakers. ufacture of refrigerators, chopsticks, air conditioners, air The authors of this assessment include people whose job purifiers, dummies (baby pacifiers), food preparation includes horizon scanning, as well as academics, represen- equipment, teddy bears, vacuum cleaners and a wide range tatives of organisations with broad conservation interests, of medical devices [12], as well as for reducing the odour of and specialists in subdisciplines of conservation science. clothes and treating plant pathogens [13]. Nanosilver can Each author, independently or in consultation with col- enter the aquatic environment through many routes, e.g. leagues, identified and provided a summary of 1–4emergent washing of wounds treated with nanosilver plasters, wash- issues that they felt were globally important or may have a ing machines equipped with nanosilver to purify clothing local effect on species, ecosystems or regions of global in- and laundering of treated fabrics [14], and could accumu- terest. The resulting set of 61 issues was circulated to all late in sediments. The impacts on natural bacterial com- authors, who scored each issue based on whether they were munities are largely unknown but nanosilver can kill aware of it (score: yes or no) and whether it was poorly known nitrifying species [15,16]. Risk to aquatic vertebrates is but potentially important [score: 1 (well known or poorly suggested by an increased incidence of deformities and known but relatively unimportant) to 10 (poorly known and mortality of exposed zebrafish embryos [17]. It is unclear potentially important)]. These scores were used to generate whether nanosilver particles could reach concentrations at a shortlist of 35 issues. Participants were invited to reprieve which they could be a serious problem. Solutions to reduce issues that they thought merited further discussion; six nanosilver in wastewater, including carbon nanotube issues were reprieved. We discussed the 41 shortlisted brushes [18] and adding ligands [19], are being examined. issues at a meeting in Cambridge, UK, in September 2009. Two participants were selected in advance to provide Synthetic meat an independent, critical assessment of each issue. After As a response to environmental pressures, ethical concerns discussion, each participant scored each issue on the same and human health issues, a variety of research efforts 10-point score and the 15 issues with the highest mean worldwide are now using technologies developed for bioen- scores were identified. Following email discussion one issue gineering medical tissue to grow synthetic meat in the was dropped and the next highest-ranked in the list laboratory [20]. Muscle stem cells can be taken from live included, resulting in the set presented here. animals, multiplied in a growth medium and stretched to We provide here a synopsis of each issue. We deliber- make muscle fibres [21]. Meat cells grown in a dish ately did not rank or prioritise the final set of 15 issues. obviously do not move like their real animal counterparts, Many of the issues may have both positive and negative so scientists use a stimuli-sensitive scaffold of collagen or environmental effects. We have not attempted to examine alginate to add texture to the meat. Periodic stretching of the consequences in detail. This is mainly because the this scaffold, in response to changes in temperature or pH, consequences of each are likely to be diverse and would exercises the cells. Despite the various technological chal- require an independent exercise to assess. lenges, a Dutch sausage maker has developed a process that