AIR QUALITY AND PERCEPTION: EXPLAINING CHANGE IN TORONTO, ONTARIO
J.M. Dworkin and K.D. Pijawka
Working Paper EPR-9 AIR QUALITY AND PERCEPTION: EXPLAINING CHANGE IN TORONTO, ONTARIO
J.M. Dworkin and K.D. Pijawka
Working Paper EPR-9
Pub IIca.t ions and Information, Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada MSS lA4
February 1981 Pub. No. EPR-9 PREFACE
Environmental Perception Research is a series of Working Papers on research in progress. The papers are intended to be used as working documents by an international group of scholars involved in perception research and to inform a larger circle of interested persons. Theseries serves as a means of disseminating results and ideas quickly, especially the research activities of the Working Group on Environmental Perception of the International Geographical Union, and for work relating to the UNESCO Man and the Biosphere Programme Project No. 13, Perception of Environmental Quality.
The series is coordinated through the Perception and Policy Working Group of the Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Toronto and support is being provided by the UNESCO Man and the Biosphere Programme.
Further information about the research programme and this series is available from:
Anne Whyte, Coordinator, Ian Burton, Chairman, Environmental Perception I.G.O. Working Group on and Policy Working Group Perception of the Environment
Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada M5S lA4 TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Study Approach 1
The Research Experience 1
Toronto's Perception of Air Quality 3
Explanations for Change in Perceptions 8 Changes in levels of air pollution 8 Changes in societal concerns 13 Changes in media coverage 14
Conclusions 16
References 16 1
AIR QUALITY AND PERCEPTION: EXPLAINING CHANGE IN TORONTO, ONTARIO
Perception is one factor used to explain decisions concerning the environment. Public awareness of, attitudes toward, and information about an issue or problem can influence government's actions. The objective of this paper is to examine public perception of air pollution in Toronto through time and to suggest reasons for the changes that are occurring.
STUDY APPROACH
Understanding an individual's or community's perception of air pollution at one point in time is difficult. Our objective: to attempt to document changes in a community's attitude is even more difficult. Present awareness of and concern with air pollution was el icited by means of a questionnaire. One hundred and sixty four completed responses were obtained. Individuals were randomly chosen by the interviewers in two major shopping centers, centers that attract customers from the entire Metropol itan Toronto region. An examination of the respondents' residences showed that the sample was drawn from a broad geographical area including the major Toronto neighbourhoods.
In order to assess change in the publ ic's perception of air pollution, the results of this survey were compared with two previous independent surveys completed inToronto in 1967 and 1969. Peter Barnes' (1967) study included a house to house survey with a carefully selected sample (200 households) stratified on the basis of various pollution levels in the city. The 1969 pol I was carried out by Pollution Probe (an environmental interest group at the University of Toronto) and included 214 telephone interviews that were randomly selected. The findings of these surveys are reported in an article by Auliciems and Burton (1971) "Per-ception of air pollution in Toron to'", In addition, an unpubl ished dissertation by John Hewings examined public perception of air pollution in a number of southern Ontario cities, and the impact of the Air Quality Index of 1970 on attitudinal change and awareness of air pollution, specifically.
The questionnaire used in the 1978 survey was designed to facilitate a comparison with the previous studies. Questions were repl icated exactly in many cases and changes in questions or additions were included in order to assist in explaining potential changes. It is acknowledged, however, that some of the differences in findings between the earl ier surveys and the present one may be related to the differently selected sample populations as well as more general methodological problems associated with the study of perception.
THE RESEARCH EXPERIENCE
A major incentive to the study of environmental perception has been the recognition that to understand human behaviour one must understand the individual's subjective image (Boulding 1956). Perception research has not 2.
produced a coherent body of knowledge that significantly augments our under- standing of man·environment interrelationships (Bunting and Guelke 1979).
In a critical essay OJRiordan (1976) argues that perception studies of environmental qual ity should be viewed with skepticism as they suffer methodological weaknesses. He offers the following reasons:
1. Attitude surveys sol icit views from individuals that may not be deeply held or even thought about. but are given because an answer is required.
2. Inconsistencies in publ ic concern over pollution may reflect questionnaire design. the objectives of the researcher, or an occurrence just prior to the interview, all of which may have nothing to do with publ ic concern.
3. Much of the information from such studies results from the use of hypothetical questions which may not conform to behavioural real ity.
Saarinen (1979) rebuts these arguments by arguing that if the subjective image is important in understand ing behav iour, then the inaccurac ies and failures in measurement do not refute the need for, or value of these studies. Specific research concerning perception of air pollution as summarized by Hewings (1975) elucidates this view. His analysis is based upon 30 such studies completed in the last 15 years. While Hewings also concedes that comparisons of these studies are difficult because of differences in methodological design, air pollution problems, and study objectives, he does develop some useful themes (Hewings 1975).
1. CONCERN WITH AIR POLLUTION INCREASED CONSISTENTLY DURING THE 1960' 5 AND PEAKED BY 197 0•
Publ ic opinion data show that concern with the qual ity of air increased during the 1960's in many cities and became the number one consideration in some areas ahead of other pressing social problems. Aul iciems and Burton (1971) found that air pollution in the late 1960's was a dominant public concern in their comparison of a number of North American cities. O'Riordan, basing his evidence on the work of Munton and Brady who reviewed publ ic opinion polls, observed that from 1965 to 1970 concern with pollution control in the U~S. jumped from ninth of the ten most serious problems to second. II. AWARENESS AND CONCERN OVER AIR POLLUTION VARIES DIRECTLY WITH ACTUAL AIR POLLUTION LEVELS.
Some studies have shown that this is not the case. Kirkby (1972), for example, found that many people residing in areas of very high air pollution levels were not concerned about these levels, and adopted rational izing and denial responses, that their neighbourhood, for example, was "not really that bad. that there were places where air pollution is worse" (O'Riordan 1976). But many studies have shown that awareness of air pollution is significantly correlated with smoke pollution and sulfation levels in a number of communities, that there are differences between rural and urban areas, and that there is a distance decay of concern outward from the centre of a large community (Hewings 1975). 3
III. CONCERN WITH AIR POLLUTION FLUCTUATES AND MAY BE INVERSELY RELATED TO CONCERN WITH OTHER sac IF.TALPROBLEMS.
It has been shown that media reporting on air pollution in Canada d ec l ined significantly during the 1968 Quebec crisis in Canada (Burton et ale 1977). In a study on air pollution in Detroit, although air pollution was accurately perceived by residents from both high and low pollution neighbour- hoods, other items were ranked ahead of pollution more frequently by respondents I iving in high air pollution neighbourhoods. Concern with environ- mental qual ity may be considered as most important until other societal concerns surface, and be ing new, become more important.
IV. SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS ARE RELATED TO PERCEPTION OF AIR POLLUTION BUT SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS EXIST AMONG THE COMMUNITY STUDIES TO PRECLUDE ANY DEFINITIVE FINDING.
In fifteen case studies where age was correlated with perception of air pollution, significancy was identified in all but five of the cases (Hewings 1975). The direction of the relationship was not consistent, however. In some of the studies age was inversely related to awareness, yet in other studies age was directly related to awareness. There is some indication that other socio- economic factors, such as occupation and length of residency, may be related to perception. Females, for example, seem to be more concerned about air pollution as a hazard than are males. Or, as D'Riordan (1976) points out, individuals of high socio-economic status may be more concerned and more knowledgeable about environmental problems than others of lower social status.
V. THE COMMUNICATIONS MEDIA MAY INFLUENCE ATTITUDES AND AWARENESS OF AIR POLLUTION.
Studies I inking awareness of air pollution to information from the media are rare, although Swan (1972) has shown that the major source of information on air pollution is from the communications media. Aul iciems and Burton (1971) found that in Toronto concern and awareness of air pollution was very high despite the lack of major visible components of air pol lution (smog, smoke) in the city, and the inabil ity to detect the more hazardous pollutants. They attributed this publ ic concern to media coverage of air pollution which was considerable at that time.
TORONTO'S PERCEPTION OF AIR QUALITY
Comparison of the three surveys shows that while some factors were consistent over time, there are notable changes since the late 1960's. The publ ic has become markedly more satisfied with air pollution levels as compared with their dissatisfaction with other local problems. In the 1967 survey a I ist of local concerns were presented and the respondents were asked to show their satisfaction with the present situation of each by rating them. The same question was asked in the present study. While air pollution was perceived as very unsatisfactory by a greater percentage of the sample than any other listed concern in 1967, by 1978 more people were dissatisfied with trafic congestion, racial problems, and employment levels (Table 1). 4
Table 1. Awareness of problems relating to.Toronto
Percentage of respondents regarding area of concern very and moderately Area of concern very unsatisfactory unsatisfactory 1967 1978 1967 1978 availabili ty of 6.5 (5)* 8~0 (7) 22.0 (5)* 17.7 (7) recreational areas employment levels 6.0 (6) 26.2 (2) 14.5 (6) 65.2 (2) garbage disposal and 3.5 3.7 12.5 (7) 12.8 (8) collection (7) (8) juvenile delinquency 29.5 (3) 20.7 (5) 72.0 (3) 58.0 (5) noise levels 20.5 (4) 18.9 (6) 56.0 (4) 52.4 (6) air pollution 46.0 (1) 24.4 (4) 88.5 (1) 58.5 (4) traffic congestion 38.5 (2) 36.6 (1) 73.0 (2) 81.7 (1) racial problems 1.0 (8) 26.2 (3) 11.5 (8) 62.8 (3)
Q: How wou Id you rate each of these for Toronto? * indicates rank
People's concerns are generally reflected in their attitudes toward government's responsibil ities. In 1969 when air pollution levels were perceived by 88.5% of the sample to be unsatisfactory, 82.3% of those inter- viewed felt that government should rate pollution control as extremely important. Thus showing that there is a close relationship between individual concern and expected government response. Moreover in 1978, the survey results show a marked decrease in publ ic concern with pollution control as an area of governmental importance. Of the Iist of problems given, employment, inflation and housing, were considered by more of the interviewees to be extremely important problems to which government should give their attention (Table 2).
Table 2. Awareness of problems concerning the government
Percentage of respondents regarding problem as Problem extremely important 1969 1978
Inflation (2)* 58.6 (1) 83.5 Housing (3) 55.6 (3) 62.2 Unenptoyment (4) 43.0 (2) 78.7 Northern development (6) 29.4 (6) 30.5 National unity (5) 42.5 (5) 55.5 Pollution control (1) 82.3 (4) 61.0 Tour ist development (7) 13.2 (7) 8.5
Q: How important do you feel the government should rate each item? * indicates rank 5
Although pollution control may fluctuate in its position with other societal concerns, air pollution retains its position as the prime pollution problem. In 1967, air qual ity was perceived as very unsatisfactory by more people than other types of pollution. This pattern has remained consistent through the 1978 survey. Hewings research corroborates this consistency (Table 3).
Table 3. Awareness of the most serious environmental problems in Toronto
Percent of respondents Problem 19692 19783 very unsatisfactory most concerned most serious
Air pollution 46 27.6 37.2 Water pollution 27 24.3 28.1 Noise pollution 20.5 not asked 6.1
Q: 1. How would you rate each of these for Toronto (five levels of satisfaction scale)? 2. Of the three types of pollution, which are you the most concerned about? 3. What do you think are the most serious environmental problems in Toronto?
The pattern which is revealed by our evaluation can be summarized as follows. The relative weightings given to community problems will vary through time. As some problems are perceived as most serious and some situations as most unsatisfactory, other are perceived less so. Those concerns which occupy the former categories will be those which should be recognized as well by government. In the case of Toronto, the economic situation in 1978 is more unsatisfactory than are air pollution levels, this represents a reweighting of societal problems from 1969 when air pollution as compared with the economy was perceived as more unsatisfactory. These positions are also represented in people's choices for government's position on these issues.
In expectation of changes in perception, the 1978 survey addressed the question of whether air qual ity in Toronto had improved or deteriorated in the past 10 year period. About one-half of the respondents felt that air quality had deteriorated, 23% felt it had improved and 16% indicated that air quality level s had not changed (Table 4). The data were surprising. One would have expected that consideration of the problem as less serious would coincide with a bel ief that air qual ity had been improving.
The surveys also sought to assess publ ic awareness concerning the major sources of the pollutants. In 1967 respondents were asked to identify from a I ist of possible contributors to air pollution, those they felt played a major role in contributing to the general level of air pollution. Automobile exhaust and industrial sources of pollution were most often cited as the primary factors in present air qual ity levels. Burning of leaves, as would be expected, was not considered as a major source of pollution in 1978, since it has now become illegal in Toronto (Table 5). 6
Table 4. Perceived change in level Table 5. Subjective identification of air pollution 1978 of major air pollution sources in Toronto .Level of Percent of air pollution respondents Percentage of Greatly increased 18.9 respondents Moderately increased 32.9 Source identifying About the same 16.5 source Moderately decreased 18.9 1967 1978 Greatly decreased 4.9 automobile 89.5 92.7 Do not know 7.9 industry 88.0 88.4 oil burners 49.0 26.2 Q: i.ru.on , In Metro Toronto, in your op municipal incinerators 36.0 42.8 has the level of air pollution locomotives 32.7 13.4 increased or decreased in the past apartment incinerators 29.0 32.9 ten years? natural pollution 26.0 6.1 open burning of leaves 18.1 9.8 The relationship between an Which of the following sources do individual's direct experience with Q: you feel plays a major role in the hazardous effects of air contributing to the general level of pollution and his concern with air air pollution in Toronto? pollution is an important factor in identifying perceptions and explaining changes. The 1967 survey asked whether air pollution affected the respondents personally and many indicated that eye and respiratory irritation, odour and poor visibil ity were the effects experienced. The 1978 study asked the same question and there has been a marked decrease in the percentage of affected population in all categories (Table 6).
Table 6. Reported effects of air pollution in Toronto
Percentage of respondents identifying ill effects Effect 1967 Rank 1978 Rank Particulate matter/dust 56.5 1 18.9 3 Odour 54.5 2 31.1 1 Disco1ouring of buildings 33.2 3 11.0 6 Respiratory irritation 30.0 4 17.7 4 Irritation of eyes 29.5 5 22.0 2 Poor visibility or haze 21.5 6 14.0 5 Q: Are there any ill-effects of air pollution that affects you personally?
Lastly, the surveys provided a measure of people's willingness to act and to improve environmental qual ity in Toronto, through governmental actionsagainst polluters and taxation. In the 1967 survey a majority of 55% preferred a warning to be used as a first governmentactionagainst polluters. Thirty-sevenpercent thought that eventual action should result in a fine, while58% thought closing down the polluter would be in order. In the 1978 survey leniency decreased. Only 17% thought that the first action should be a warning while 52% considered a stiff fine was in order as a first action. For eventual action 70% considered closing down the polluter. Today, the publ ic would Iike to see more forceful action to control pollution than in 1967 (Table 7). 7
Tabl e 7. Sugg ested penalties against polluters in Toronto
1967 1978 Penalty eventual eventual first action first action action action
A warning 55% 17 A token fine 14% 1% 20.1 2.4 A stiff, substantial fine 24% 37% 52.4 26.2 Closing down the 6% 58% 9.8 70.1 polluter/operation
'Q: Which penalties against polluters would you support as a first action? Which of these is the strongest measure you would not accept as unreasonable for eventual action?
The Toronto citizenry of 1978 is also more will ing to support more forceful programs than they were 10 years ago. The 1967 survey asked the respondents about their wi 11 ingness to pay for cleanup measures of air . pollution. Even with a relatively high degree of publ ic concern in 1967, 41% were unwilling to commit anything or were non-committal. By 1978, although the problem was perceived as less serious, 80% stated that they were willing to commit personal funds to the effort (Table 8).
Table 8. Financial contributions in Toronto
Percentage of respondents Suggested contribution willing to pay 1969 1978
Non or noncommittal 41% 17.7 Small amount ($10 or less) 12% 20.1 $10-$40 14% 39.7 $40 or more 29% 20.7
Q: Considering the problem of pollution and that in the final analysis the public, you, pays for it either in taxes or costs of goods and services, how much would you in total be willing to contribute per year to eliminate pollution?
In summarizing the differences in publ ic perception of air pollution in Toronto in the last decade, there are three important components: concern, change and action. The first component can be described as concern with the air pollution problem. The 1978 population sees air pollution as less important, requiring a less serious response by government than other societal problems. However, within the realm of environment pollution air qual ity is still regarded as the primary problem. The second component can be characterized as the perception of change. The 1978 population regards air qual lt y as degraded. However, less of the population perceives that they are directly affected by air pollution. Some sources of pollutants were no longer 8 considered major contributors to air qual ity degradation. Finally, the third component, describes the response action. The 1978 population is willing to take stronger steps to improve and protect air qual ity. They are will ing to spend more for an improved environment, The 1978 population can, therefore, be described in comparison with the late 1960's population, as one who sees the problem as less serious, feels improvements have not been made, and is more strongly committed to making future improvements.
EXPLANATIONS FOR CHANGE IN PERCEPTIONS
Comparative analysis of the survey data show that changes in perception of air pollution have occurred since the late 1960·s. The reasons for these changes are the subject of this section of the paper. Three themes from the 1 iterature on air pollution identified above may be useful in explaining these changes.
1. Awareness and concern over air pollution varies directly with actual air pollution levels.
2. Concern with air pollution fluctuates and may decrease as other societal problems become more important.
3. The communications media may influence attitudes and awareness of air pollution.
CHANGES IN LEVELS OF AIR POLLUTION
Awareness of an air pollution problem has been directly related in many cases to actual air qual ity. The decrease in concern over air pollution in Toronto then, may perhaps be explained by an improvement in the level of air qual ity which is reflected in a decrease in the amount of measurable pollutants. To test this hypothesis, air qual ity data made available by the Air Management Branch, Ontario Ministry of the Environment were examined (Fig. 1).
The primary pollutants which are used in Metropol itan Toronto as indicators of ambient air qual ity are sulphur dioxide, carbon monoxide, su spend ed part icuIate matter, and ox idant s. Ava i1ab Ie air poll ut ion data indicate that overall air qual ity in Toronto has improved substantially in the past decade. To illustrate this trend, figures available for sulphur dioxide show that concentrations of sulphur dioxide at the central monitoring station located in downtown Toronto decreased from an annual average of 0.08 ppm in 1970 to 0.02 ppm in 1976. Moreover, for most indices of air qual ity there has been a substantial drop in air pollution levels.
Responsibil ity for air qual ity improvements became the jurisdiction of the Ontario Ministry of the Environment in 1968. The Air Pollution Control Act of 1968 and the Environmental Protection Act of 1971 provided the legislative support for the agency's programs. Air quality in Toronto is regulated through four activities conducted by the Ministry. During the first four years of the program activities were intensive, after which time the activities slowed down as air qual ity improved (Table 9). ,.., E <, 125 o- ~E E C9~ c:: 100 --- CENTRAL ~.\ONITORING STATION •w.... Q.. C6-' •.... ~ I - METROPOLITAN TORONTO MEAN ~ - i 07 :: 75 ~ 1 0 ~ 06" w 0 e Z o 05 w 50 ex: a. w 04 ...... •. III --- CENTRAL ~.\ONITOFi;NG STATION J: ...... ::l a. ....• .-...... •..... ---- III - METROPOLITAN TORO~TO 1.'.i::AN -1 03 ~ 4 E ~ E ~~ a. a. w .02 Q. )( •I....II g 2 Z Fig. 1. Trends in air contaminant levels to 10 Table.9. Initial abatement activity .in Metropolitan .Toronto Date Activity 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 Industrial abatement 19 45 64 56 53 Fuel conversions 220 240 583 219 116 Inspec tions 1,300 2,800 10,106 9.167 4,796 Observations* 36,200 21,000 7,926 11,105 5,723 Complaints received 2,500 3,100 5,023 5,512 4,155 Data: "Cont.rolli.ng air pollution in Metropolitan Toronto", Air Management Branch, Ontario Ministry of the Environment. *Outdoor siting of smoke emissions or encountering of odours. 1. Abatement programs This activity includes monitoring and surveying sources and levels of air pollution in the city resulting in decisions to reduce or to el iminate the pollutants. These case-by-case decisions are based upon the location of the source, the type of pollution emitted and the population at risk. Air emissions may be required to meet specific design emission standards as required by law. Required emission reductions may be done through design modifications or add itional plate equipment. 2. Specific regulations In some situations decisions are made to regulate by class rather than by individual case and controls are imposed uniformly such as the standards on emissions from ferrous foundries and the restrictions placed on the sulphur content of fuels. The restrictions on vehicular exhaust emissions, for example, have been successful in reducing the amount of hydrocarbon po llutan t s into the air. Also special area regulations apply in certain locations such as Toronto. 3. Fuel conversions Fuel conver s lon , the change from using coal as a fuel which results in high levels of smoke to either oil or gas, has also been occurring in Toronto. 4. Air pollution index and warning system The air pollution index is derived from measurements of the concen- trations of sulphur dioxide and suspended particulate matter in the atmosphere. These are two air pollution constituents which are known to pose serious health hazards when present together and allowed to persist above certain concentrations. The index, establ ished in 1970, is the initiating component to a warning system. When concentrations reach the first threshold, the Jladvisory levej11 is reached. Large sources of emission are notified that 11 reductions in industrial activity may be required. A further increase in the air pollution index results in a "first alert" level. The response is to order a reduction on emissions through production cutbacks or through replace- ment of a high sulphur containing fuel to one of lower concentration. The marked improvement in air quality in the last decade, a period synonymous with the assumption of air qual ity improvement by the Province, must be placed in a broader context. Before any casual relationship between air qual ity levels and perception can be suggested several ancillary questions must be addressed. 1. What were air qual ity levels prior to the 1967 and 1969 surveys? 2. Did interviewees have correct knowledge as to the trends in air qual ity? 3. Could the air qual ity levels produce the ill effects which respondants reported either in 1967 or 1978 (Table 6)? The long term trends in concentrations of air pollutants show that air qual ity had begun to improve in Toronto prior to 1967. Ten years earlier, for example, control of black smoke existed for all of Metropol itan Toronto and by 1963 conversion from coal fuel was proceeding. Concentrations of suspended particulate matter decreased from an average of 194 ~g/m3 in 1962 to 135 ~g/m3 in 1969. By 1969, sulphur dioxide levels too were already decreasing substantially, a consistent trend since the mid-1960's (Fig. 2). Moreover, the rate of improvement has not changed from the earl ier period. In the case of sulphur dioxide, in fact, the rate has decreased and concentrations have remained stable since 1973. Thus, it cannot be said that the decade from 1969 to 1978 represents a unique, easily identifiable period within the longer period. As a second issue, Torontonians are not cognizant of these trends in air pollution. While concentrations of pollutants have decreased, sulphur dioxide, over 50% of the 1978 population surveyed felt that air pollution levels had risen in this period. Only 24% correctly stated that these levels had decreased (Table 4). Inconsistencies between degree of pollution and perception were already identified in the 1967 survey. Analysis shows that at that time interviewees were not able to properly identify seasonal variations in air pollution. Similarly, in 1978 they were not aware that air quality had improved. As a third issue, the types and concentrations of pollutants in the air could not be expected to lead to some of the ill effects identified by those interviewed. This incongruity was already identified in an analysis of the 1967 survey. Even in the late 1960's pollutants were not concentrated enough to produce stated respiratory irritations and eye irritations. Moreover, the public was unaware of the one component of air pollution which has failed to improve. Existing concentrations of oxidants has meant seasonal visibil ity problems for Toronto, yet the percentage of individuals who reported visibility being affected has decreased. Thus, in the one measure of air quality which has the potential for producing impacts, the population was insensitive to the effect. Therefore, one must be skeptical in attributing a lessening of these ill-effects to actual changes in air quality levels. . 12 160 140 Vl w~ 120 .-r<"l « E ..J' ::> co ~ E .ex:-z~ 100 £l««.w o~ W O..J z« w::> £l.Z eo VlZ :::>« I/) 60 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 11972 '1973 '1974 '1975 '1976 I .10 08 E w ci. 0 ci. x~- ~z 0« .06 ex:W w~ l:..J ll...«J::> ::>z VlZ 04 « .02 O~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~---r~r-~~~ 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974-'1975 '1976 ' fig. 2. Long term trends in air contaminant levels 13 The data show that trends in air pollution perception are not clearly a result of changes in air pollution. This is supported by other researchers. Hewings (1975) did not find a consistent relationship between awareness and attitudes to air pollution and the level of air quality in Toron.to. Auliciems and Burton (1971) noted in their report that perception of pollutants is brought about by the visible stimul i such as smoke and haze and that these visually perceived particles are comparatively less I ikely to pose health risks than other non-visual pollutants. Carbon monoxide, for example, is imperceptible and people are not aware of the gas. Given the concentrations and the atmospheric nature of pollutants in Toronto, direct sensory perception of contaminants is related to visual olfactory stimuli of the less hazardous pollutants. But the olfactory threshold level is usually much higher than the physiological effect level resulting in the inabil ity to perceive differences between degrees of pollution. There are also inconsistencies apparent between the degree of pollution and subjective perception. The authors conclude that because the dangerous pollutants are rarely visible and perceptible, other factors must account for high degree of public awareness in the late 1960's (Aul iciems and Burton 1971). The addition of data from the 1978 survey does not negate this conclusion. CHANGES IN SOCIETAL CONCERNS The literature suggests that fluctuations in societal concerns by the publ ic may in part account for differences in perception of air pollution. Some researchers have developed the 'worry bead" hypothesis to describe human behaviour. This hypothesis suggests that individuals have only a small, relatively fixed number of worry beads to use on an infinite number of problems. As a result when an individual decides to worry about new problems he invaribly relegates older problems to a less important position in his repetoire (Kates 1977). Tables 1 and 2 suggest that the worry bead hypothesis may be an important factor in explaining publ ic concern with air pollution. As part of each of the questionnaires individuals were asked to rate potential problems about which they personally and the government should be concerned. Individualswere free to rate all items equally as very unsatisfactory or very satisfactory. The results were very different from this pattern, however. If one looks at Table 1, in 1967 the greatest number of people, 46%, found air pollution very unsatisfactory, by 1978 only 24% found it very unsatisfactory. Their concern had been transferred to unemployment levels from 6% in 1967 to 26% in 1978. Similarly, in Table 2 one can see that people's evaluation of government concern follows a similar trend while 82% of the population believed government should rate pollution control as an extremely important problem in 1969 and only 61% agreed in 1978, 83% of the population could agree in 1978 that there was a t lea st one extreme Iy important prob Iem for government and that was inflation. As problems are picked up, others are dropped. This is consistent with Hewings' findings. His study of the variation in perception of air pollution through time, in a number of Ontario cities, including Toronto, showed that concern over air pollution fluctuated with other societal problems within,as well as between communities. The ascendancy of one problem signalled the decline of other problems as areas for major concern. In 1970, Hewings notes that only in Toronto was air pollution 14 considered to be the most important city problem, that in the other cities examined, econanic ills were defined as being of more importance. In Sudbury, the overriding problem centered around employment instabil ity in spite of relatively high levels of felt air pollution .. At a societal level when we compare the important concerns of the late 1960's and those of the late 1970's, we find a similar transposition. Pollution which was a major concern of the 1960's has been replaced by econanic issues of inflation and unemployment. If we admit that the publ ic picks up and drops issues as though they were beads, then we need to ask through what motivations selecting and discarding operate. Two motivations which have importance are: .I a ) personal experience; and (b) learned experience as defined and described by the communications media. We have already discussed the relationship of personal experience and actual air qual ity, the next section will document the role which the media may play in changing perceptions of our pollution. CHANGES IN MEDIA COVERAGE The communications media is a major source of information on air pollution and other environmental hazards and contributes to the formation of publ ic attitudes and concern. Auliciems and Burton (1971) assume that public concern with air pollution, given the nature of the problem in Toronto, followed the increase in newspaper reporting. The 1967 survey showed that about 40% of the pub] ic viewed air pollution levels as unsatisfactory in 1967. Hewings (1975) found that in 1970 more than 50% of his sample population thought air pollution the most important item of concern, .the year that newspaper coverage peaked. The coverage of air pollution drops in the 1970's and this decrease may be an important factor in explaining the change in perception of air pollution today. After a slow start in the mid-1960's the environmental movement reached its zenith in the period from 1967 to 1970. Organized environmental interest groups in Toronto were monitoring the environment, pressuring the government to improve its management of environmental quality, attacking specific pollution problems and their sources such as DOT, phosphates, sulphur dioxide and achieving substantial success in these activities. Government activity at this time was also intense (beginning with the 1968 pollution Acts) with the establ ishment of abatement programs and air quality regulations. Because it represented a new interest, these events were well covered in the newspaper (Fig. 3). Coverage of the daily air pollution index is illustrative of the impact which the media may have on publ ic awareness and concern. According to Hewings (1975) upon introduction of the air pollution index in 1970 and reports thereof in the local newspapers, a small, positive change in perceived importance of air quality occurred. This increase continued for at least the next six months. The daily report helped remind readers of the problem. Moreover, considerable publ icity surrounded "Fl rst Alert Level" events. This brought added information concerning the importance of the air pollution index and the critical problems Toronto was facing. According to Hewings (1975), the reporting of the air pollution index directly irifluencedthe awareness of air pollution as a major problem. The air pollution index no longer occupies a 15 INTRODUCTION TO AIR POLLUTION INDEX 1000 I 900 U) W...J 800 ~ f- a:: 700 POLLUTION PROBE SURVEY ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION ACT 300 I GREY CUP SMOG 200 / 100 1958 '59 '60 '61 '62 '63 '64 '65 '66 '67 '68 '69 '70 '71 '72 '73 '74 '75 '76 Fig. 3. Annual totals of pollution articles in the Toronto "Globe and Mail" prominent position in the newspapers, although it may still be found near the weather reports in the daily newspaper. Nearly all the respondents in the 1978 survey had heard of the index, yet they did not know precisely what it was not did they pay any attention to it. The coverage of air pollution is well related with public perceptions. Media reporting at the time of the 1967 and 1969 surveys was expanding to include an increasing number of articles on our degraded environment in general, air and water specifically. Coverage also included discussions of proposed legislation to alleviate the problem. The attention to these issues became even more dramatic in the following year as the media covered government1s actions to meet the requirements of the new legislation. By 1972, however, attention was less than it had been in 1969 and has been decreasing ever since. Lack of attention to air pollution in recent years, may be used to explain the lack of a positive relationship between improvements in air quality and individuals perception that air quality has not improved. Coverage emphasized the problems with air quality, the need for improvement and the first attempts at solutions. It has not, however, continued to give the same attention to the much improved air quality. Thus, we can suggest that the publ ic may see the problem as less serious, since there is less coverage and yet be unaware of the quality improvements since they are not so promonently reported • ------16 CONCLUSIONS The purpose of this paper was not to describe the role of perception in the assessment of risks by society, nor was it to identify the determinants of perception of decision makers or risk managers. The objective was to examine the change in publ ic awareness of air pollution in Toronto over time and to make some preliminary observations. The data point to a shift in publ ic concern with and awareness of local air quality. This shift is characteristic of a general decline in the concern with pollution, although many still regard it as a serious problem. However, it is not as acute in its effects to person and place as it once was. Social science research has shown that environmental concerns wil I give way to other more pressing needs or events and this research reinforces such a proposition: problems of unemployment and inflation have replaced pollution as the number one concern of the late 1960's. Decl ine in concern over pollution levels is reflected by the corresponding decrease in media recognition of the pollution problem. Although concentrations of most pollutants in Toronto have declined in the past few years which include gases and particles so small as to be imperceptible, concentrations of oxidants continue to produce visibil ity problems. Yet despite this air quality data, the response of the sample population suggests alternatively that visibil ity has improved, air quality in general has deteriorated and concern with air pollution on the whole decreased. The reasons for these seeming contradictions are unknown. The research does suggest a plausible explanation. The mid-1960's represent a period in which the environment and pollution became new social issues. Media coverage of this issue increased and with it public awareness and then concern. It should be emphasized that these publ ic attitudes were at least as much a result of learned information as they were of direct experience with pollution. Legislation and regulatory activities resulted in further media attention. The publ ic was informed of the severity of the problem and of ongoing attempts to improve the quality of the environment. With time, however, new issues became important. Media coverage of air pollution decreased while greater attention was paid to the economy. As a result, individual's awareness and concern has been modified. Given less attention by society and the media, the publ ic perceive the problem as less serious. Yet, their awareness of air qual ity is still based on part information. 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