Banks Opportunities amid crisis 1Q20 preview: Lower NIMs, healthier-than-expected loan growth, and stable credit costs For 1Q20, we expect banks under our coverage—Shinhan Financial Group (SFG), KB Industry Report Financial Group (KBFG), Hana Financial Group (HFG), Industrial Bank of Korea (IBK), April 22, 2020 BNK Financial Group (BNKFG), DGB Financial Group (DGBFG), and JB Financial Group (JBFG)—to post combined net profit attributable to controlling interests of W3tr (-7.5% YoY), in line with the recently lowered consensus. Whil e we see net profit declining YoY on high base effects (due to provision reversals a year ago), we still think banks Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. performed decently amid growing concerns over the economy. We estimate bank net [Banks/Credit Cards ] interest margins (NIMs) fell 4-5bps QoQ, but we believe loa n growth was healthier than expected, as large banks’ won-denominated loans likely expanded 2.5% QoQ on Heather Kang average. We estimate credit costs increased 17% YoY, while the ratio of credit costs to +822 -3774 -1903 total credit was likely stable at 38bps (vs. 35bps in 1Q19, when reversals of provisions
[email protected] were included). 2020 forecast: Net profit to decline 7%; ROE of 7.4% Concerns are growing over the potential impact of COVID-19 on banks (asset quality and credit costs) and the broader economy, as it is still unknown how long the outbreak will last and what its impact will be. Unlike previous financial crises that were triggered by large conglomerates or banks, we think the potential upcoming crisis is very likely to start from micro businesses, small merchants, and SMEs, before spreading gradually to larger enterprises.