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Opportunities Amid Crisis Banks Opportunities amid crisis 1Q20 preview: Lower NIMs, healthier-than-expected loan growth, and stable credit costs For 1Q20, we expect banks under our coverage—Shinhan Financial Group (SFG), KB Industry Report Financial Group (KBFG), Hana Financial Group (HFG), Industrial Bank of Korea (IBK), April 22, 2020 BNK Financial Group (BNKFG), DGB Financial Group (DGBFG), and JB Financial Group (JBFG)—to post combined net profit attributable to controlling interests of W3tr (-7.5% YoY), in line with the recently lowered consensus. Whil e we see net profit declining YoY on high base effects (due to provision reversals a year ago), we still think banks Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. performed decently amid growing concerns over the economy. We estimate bank net [Banks/Credit Cards ] interest margins (NIMs) fell 4-5bps QoQ, but we believe loa n growth was healthier than expected, as large banks’ won-denominated loans likely expanded 2.5% QoQ on Heather Kang average. We estimate credit costs increased 17% YoY, while the ratio of credit costs to +822 -3774 -1903 total credit was likely stable at 38bps (vs. 35bps in 1Q19, when reversals of provisions [email protected] were included). 2020 forecast: Net profit to decline 7%; ROE of 7.4% Concerns are growing over the potential impact of COVID-19 on banks (asset quality and credit costs) and the broader economy, as it is still unknown how long the outbreak will last and what its impact will be. Unlike previous financial crises that were triggered by large conglomerates or banks, we think the potential upcoming crisis is very likely to start from micro businesses, small merchants, and SMEs, before spreading gradually to larger enterprises. This time, however, we believe banks are much better-equipped to cope with a crisis. Our coverage banks (financial holding companies) have markedly improved their fundamentals (capital adequacy and asset quality), drastically reduced loan exposure to cyclical businesses, increased the quality of SME/SOHO loan portfolios by strengthening collateral/government guarantee requirements, and mitigated concentration risk through diversification. Moreover, given policymakers’ wide-ranging support (fiscal and monetary stimulus, financial aid for SMEs and micro businesses, stabilization funds for the bond and securities markets, etc.), the financial system’s risk of immediate collapse/insolvency is low, in our view. In 2020, we forecast banks’ (financial holding companies) combined net profit to contract 7% YoY, hurt by lower NIMs and a higher credit cost-to-total credit ratio (from 37bps in 2019 to 40bps in 2020). We see ROE falling to 7.4% (from 8.5% in 2019). Share price vo latility to continue for some time, but stocks look deeply undervalued at current levels Amid worries over the spread of COVID-19, financial authorities have come up with a series of measures to provide financial aid to SMEs/micro businesses and support fi nancial market stability. These include measures to temporarily ease capital, liquidity, and operational regulations (e.g., earlier-than-scheduled adoption of the final Basel III reforms, introduction of stock market stabilization funds, relaxation of liqu idity coverage and loan-to-deposit ratios, etc.). While some may be against banks (financial holding companies) playing a public role, we believe it is necessary to reduce systemic risks during economic and liquidity crises. Banks (financial holding compan ies) look deeply undervalued, currently trading at a 2020F P/B of 0.27x and P/E of 3.8x—valuations that reflect a bear scenario in which the emerging risks develop into a full-blown crisis. Share price volatility may continue for some time due to heightened uncertainties, but we think current share prices offer a good opportunity to buy on weakness or gradually accumulate shares from a medium- and long-term perspective. When uncertainties ease, we expect large banks (financial holding companies) to rebound more quickly than others. Against this backdrop, we present KBFG and HFG as our top picks. April 22, 2020 Banks 1Q20 preview: Lower NIMs, healthier-than-expected loan growth, and stable credit costs In 1Q20, we estimate bank NIMs fell 4-5bps QoQ due to declines in bond yields and the benchmark interest rate. However, NIMs likely fell at a slower pace than in the previous quarter (-6-7bps QoQ), before the emergence of credit/liquidity crunch concerns. In our view, the increase in low-cost core deposits amid the current ultra-low interest rate environment has helped slow the NIM decline. In addition, we believe loan growth was healthier than expected, as large banks’ won-denominated loans likely expanded 2.5% QoQ on average. In March, banks’ corporate loans registered their largest increase since the BOK began compiling preliminary data, as businesses face increasing funding needs amid growing caution against credit risks and worries about liquidity. We also believe household loans continued strong growth, driven by funding demand related to housing transactions, stock market investments, and the substitution of non-bank loans with bank loans. SG&A expenses were likely kept at manageable levels, as: 1) contributions to employee welfare funds were reduced (contributions were raised YoY in the previous year); and 2) voluntary retirement programs were not implemented. Meanwhile, we estimate credit costs increased 17% YoY, while the credit cost-to-total credit ratio was likely stable at 38bps (vs. 35bps in 1Q19, when reversals of provisions were included). Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 April 22, 2020 Banks Table 1. Domestic banks: Key valuation metrics SFG KBFG HFG IBK BNKFG DGBFG JBFG Ticker 055550 KS 105560 KS 086790 KS 024110 KS 138930 KS 139130 KS 175330 KS Rating Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy TP (W) 41,000 48,500 37,500 10,000 6,000 6,700 6,600 CP (W) 28,500 32,350 24,750 7,880 4,800 4,950 4,410 Upside (%) 43.9 49.9 51.5 26.9 25.0 35.4 49.7 Market cap (Wbn) 13,749 13,451 7,431 4,548 1,564 837 869 Foreign ownership (%) 64.2 66.2 65.6 17.7 49.6 47.4 40.3 P/B (x) 2018 0.38 0.38 0.27 0.25 0.21 0.20 0.28 2019 0.35 0.35 0.26 0.23 0.19 0.19 0.25 2020F 0.34 0.32 0.24 0.23 0.18 0.18 0.23 2021F 0.31 0.30 0.23 0.22 0.17 0.16 0.20 2022F 0.29 0.28 0.21 0.20 0.16 0.15 0.19 P/E (x) 2018 4.3 4.4 3.3 3.0 3.1 2.2 2.9 2019 4.0 4.1 3.1 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.4 2020F 4.4 4.4 3.4 3.6 3.0 2.9 2.6 2021F 4.3 4.2 3.2 3.5 2.9 2.6 2.4 2022F 4.2 4.0 3.1 3.4 2.8 2.4 2.3 P/PPOP (x) 2018 2.6 2.7 2.1 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.4 2019 2.3 2.6 1.8 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.4 2020F 2.3 2.6 2.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 2021F 2.2 2.4 1.8 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 2022F 2.1 2.3 1.7 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 Dividend yield (%) 2018 5.6 5.9 7.7 8.8 6.3 7.3 4.1 2019 6.5 6.8 8.5 8.5 7.5 8.3 6.8 2020F 6.0 6.5 8.1 7.6 7.1 7.5 7.5 2021F 6.3 7.1 8.9 8.2 7.7 8.5 8.6 2022F 6.7 7.7 9.5 8.5 8.3 9.3 9.5 ROE (%) 2018 9.2 8.8 8.6 8.6 6.8 9.5 8.7 2019 9.1 8.9 8.6 7.4 7.1 7.6 10.3 2020F 7.9 7.6 7.5 6.5 6.2 6.2 9.2 2021F 7.6 7.4 7.5 6.4 5.9 6.5 9.0 2022F 7.3 7.3 7.1 6.1 5.9 6.6 8.6 ROA (%) 2018 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 2019 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 2020F 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7 2021F 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.8 2022F 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.8 EPS growth (%) 2018 8.2 -8.9 8.7 16.8 24.6 26.9 29.2 2019 7.7 8.2 6.5 -9.1 12.0 -14.6 17.5 2020F -9.1 -7.5 -8.8 -9.0 -6.5 -12.1 -4.9 2021F 2.0 5.4 8.1 2.7 1.2 11.9 8.3 2022F 3.1 5.1 2.1 0.8 5.0 7.6 4.7 PPOP margin (%) 2018 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.3 0.9 1.3 2019 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.2 0.9 1.3 2020F 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.4 2021F 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.4 2022F 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.5 Note: Based on April 17, 2020 closing prices Source: Company data, Quantiwise, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3 April 22, 2020 Banks Table 2.
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