Evaluation of the Effects of Financial Regulatory Reforms on Infrastructure Finance
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Evaluation of the effects of financial regulatory reforms on infrastructure finance 20 November 2018 The Financial Stability Board (FSB) is established to coordinate at the international level the work of national financial authorities and international standard-setting bodies in order to develop and promote the implementation of effective regulatory, supervisory and other financial sector policies. Its mandate is set out in the FSB Charter, which governs the policymaking and related activities of the FSB. These activities, including any decisions reached in their context, shall not be binding or give rise to any legal rights or obligations under the FSB’s Articles of Association. Contacting the Financial Stability Board Sign up for e-mail alerts: www.fsb.org/emailalert Follow the FSB on Twitter: @FinStbBoard E-mail the FSB at: [email protected] Copyright © 2018 Financial Stability Board. Please refer to: http://www.fsb.org/terms_conditions/ Table of Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... 1 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 4 1.1 Motivation and objectives .......................................................................................... 4 1.2 Scope .......................................................................................................................... 5 1.3 Approach .................................................................................................................... 6 1.4 Structure of report ...................................................................................................... 7 2. Trends in infrastructure finance ......................................................................................... 8 2.1 Definition and scope .................................................................................................. 8 2.2 Characteristics of infrastructure finance .................................................................... 8 2.3 Market trends ........................................................................................................... 11 3. Relevant reforms .............................................................................................................. 17 3.1 Overview .................................................................................................................. 17 3.2 Implementation status .............................................................................................. 17 3.3 Transmission channels ............................................................................................. 19 4. Effects of the reforms on infrastructure finance .............................................................. 22 4.1 Analytical approach ................................................................................................. 22 4.2 Importance of financial regulation versus other factors .......................................... 23 4.3 Effects of reforms .................................................................................................... 26 5. Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 35 5.1 Cost-benefit considerations ...................................................................................... 35 5.2 Overall assessment ................................................................................................... 36 Annex A: Market structure and trends in infrastructure finance ............................................. 38 Annex B: Financial regulations potentially affecting infrastructure finance ........................... 49 Annex C: Data, design and findings of empirical analysis ...................................................... 63 C.1 Data sources .................................................................................................................. 63 C.2 Analytical design and conceptual approach .................................................................. 67 C.3 Overview of results ....................................................................................................... 72 Annex D: Qualitative survey design and results .................................................................... 112 Annex E: Stylised example of the impact of changes in regulatory capital .......................... 118 Annex F: Literature review and bibliography ........................................................................ 125 Annex G: Composition of the evaluation working group ...................................................... 133 iii Abbreviations AEs Advanced Economies ASF Available Stable Funding (NSFR) BCBS Basel Committee on Banking Supervision BIS Bank for International Settlements CCF Credit conversion factor CCP Central counterparty CCR Counterparty credit risk CECL Current expected credit loss model CVA Credit valuation adjustment (Basel III) DiD Difference-in-difference (statistical technique) ECA Export Credit Agency ECL Expected credit loss EFRAG European Financial Reporting Advisory Group EMDEs Emerging Market and Developing Economies FASB Financial Accounting Standards Board (US) FSB Financial Stability Board GDP Gross Domestic Product GFCF Gross Fixed Capital Formation G-SIB Global systemically important bank HLA Higher loss absorbency HQLA High Quality Liquid Assets IAIS International Association of Insurance Supervisors IASB International Accounting Standards Board ICS Insurance Capital Standard IF Infrastructure Finance IFI International Financial Institution IFRS International Financial Reporting Standards IOSCO International Organization of Securities Commissions IRB Internal ratings based approach (Basel III) LCR Liquidity Coverage Ratio LGD Loss Given Default LIQ Liquidity ratio LR Leverage Ratio MDB Multilateral Development Bank NCCDs Non-centrally cleared derivatives NSFR Net Stable Funding Ratio OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development OTC Over-the-counter (Derivatives) PPP Private-public partnership RBC Risk-based Tier 1 capital ratio RSF Required Stable Funding (NSFR) RW Risk weight RWAs Risk-weighted assets SIFI Systemically Important Financial Institution SPV Special purpose vehicle WACC Weighted Average Cost of Capital iv Executive Summary This report presents the results of the evaluation of the effects of financial regulatory reforms on infrastructure finance (IF). The evaluation is carried out under the FSB framework for the post-implementation evaluation of the effects of the G20 financial regulatory reforms. It is part of a broader evaluation of the effects of reforms on financial intermediation, and complements work under the Argentine G20 Presidency to develop infrastructure as an asset class. The evaluation focuses on IF provided by the financial sector in the form of corporate and project debt financing (loans and bonds), covering the types of financing that are most likely to be directly affected by financial regulation. IF provided by the financial sector accounts for a relatively small share (e.g. around 5-10%) of the global spending on infrastructure investments. Public financing, which constitutes the bulk of IF, is outside the scope of the evaluation, except to the extent that such financing supports private sources (such as via credit enhancements). While the G20 reforms do not specifically target the provision of IF, a broad range of financial regulations can potentially affect it. This reflects the diverse nature of IF, involving different types of financial intermediaries and instruments. The reforms that have been largely implemented and are most relevant for this evaluation are the initial Basel III capital and liquidity requirements (agreed in 2010) and over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives reforms. Both sets of reforms are subject to qualitative and quantitative analyses. Other G20 reforms that may be relevant for IF but are at an earlier implementation stage (e.g. Basel III reforms finalised in December 2017, investment funds reforms accounting standards) are reviewed qualitatively, given the lack of data required for a quantitative assessment. In addition to the G20 reforms, national and regional regulations for insurers (e.g. differentiated treatment of infrastructure assets introduced recently into Solvency II and in some other jurisdictions) and pension funds (e.g. investment limits) may affect IF, and these regulations are also considered qualitatively. The evaluation draws on a broad range of information sources and is based on multiple analyses. They include empirical analysis using micro and aggregate data on infrastructure investment; qualitative analysis, including a public survey on trends in IF and relevant drivers; extensive engagement with IF experts, including via a workshop with industry and interviews with market participants; a literature review; and public feedback on the consultative report. Notwithstanding data and methodological challenges, these sources – taken together – form the basis for the conclusions in the report. Trend analysis suggests that the overall amount of IF has grown in recent years after a temporary drop during the financial crisis. The growth has been slower than in the pre-crisis years and is concentrated mainly within advanced economies (AEs). In the case of emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), overall growth