Estimating Suitable Probability Distribution Function for Multimodal Traffic Distribution Function
Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety Research Paper Vol. 21, No. 3, pp. 253-258, June 30, 2015, ISSN 1229-3431(Print) / ISSN 2287-3341(Online) http://dx.doi.org/10.7837/kosomes.2015.21.3.253 Estimating Suitable Probability Distribution Function for Multimodal Traffic Distribution Function Sang-Lok Yoo* ․ Jae-Yong Jeong** ․ Jeong-Bin Yim** * Graduate school of Mokpo National Maritime University, Mokpo 530-729, Korea ** Professor, Mokpo National Maritime University, Mokpo 530-729, Korea Abstract : The purpose of this study is to find suitable probability distribution function of complex distribution data like multimodal. Normal distribution is broadly used to assume probability distribution function. However, complex distribution data like multimodal are very hard to be estimated by using normal distribution function only, and there might be errors when other distribution functions including normal distribution function are used. In this study, we experimented to find fit probability distribution function in multimodal area, by using AIS(Automatic Identification System) observation data gathered in Mokpo port for a year of 2013. By using chi-squared statistic, gaussian mixture model(GMM) is the fittest model rather than other distribution functions, such as extreme value, generalized extreme value, logistic, and normal distribution. GMM was found to the fit model regard to multimodal data of maritime traffic flow distribution. Probability density function for collision probability and traffic flow distribution will be calculated much precisely in the future. Key Words : Probability distribution function, Multimodal, Gaussian mixture model, Normal distribution, Maritime traffic flow 1. Introduction* traffic time and speed. Some studies estimated the collision probability when the ship Maritime traffic flow is affected by the volume of traffic, tidal is in confronting or passing by applying it to normal distribution current, wave height, and so on.
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