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May01/2021 Kentucky Derby Wager Guide Churchill Downs

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May01/2021 Kentucky Derby Wager Guide Churchill Downs 1/ST BET // WAGER GUIDE KENTUCKY DERBY MAY01/2021 CHURCHILL DOWNS MEET THE 2021 DERBY CONTENDERS By Johnny D., @XBJohnnyD ESSENTIAL QUALITY: Unbeaten in five career starts, this son of Tapit is the defending Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and reigning 2-year-old champ. He’s also the current consensus pick as top 3-year-old. This Brad Cox-trained colt has done everything right in two 2021 starts. He romped home in the Grade 3 Southwest at Oaklawn Park and then out-fought a game, pace scenario- aided Highly Motivated at Keeneland to win the Grade 2 Blue Grass by a neck. He races a bit off the pace early, but can quickly reach contention when prompted. He has won by as much as four and one-quarter lengths and by as little as a neck. Last September, he broke his maiden first time out going six furlongs at Churchill Downs, so you know he likes the track. Jockey Luis Saez seeks redemption aboard this colt for the disappointment and criticism the rider endured following the disqualification of his mount Maximum Security from first to 17th in the 2019 Kentucky Derby. Trainer Brad Cox won last season’s Eclipse Award as the nation’s top trainer. HOT ROD CHARLIE: Ever since stretching out to two turns on the main track and adding blinkers, this son of Preakness winner Oxbow has been a tiger. His first race under those particular circumstances came in the fourth start of his career and resulted in a one-mile maiden score at Santa Anita in October. He then finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by a mere neck to the probable Kentucky Derby favorite Essential Quality at gigantic 94-1 odds. ‘Charlie began 2021 in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita by finishing third-best by a neck in a desperate photo involving Medina Spirt. Shipped to Louisiana for that state’s Derby, Hot Rod Charlie dominated throughout to win by two lengths. Two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Doug O’Neill appears to have this fellow hitting on all cylinders as May 1 fast approaches. SUPER STOCK: He burst onto the Kentucky Derby scene with a romping score in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. It was quite a turnaround for the son of Dialed In. At 12-1 odds, he roared home to a more than two-length victory while looking more like a 4-5 shot under Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen’s main rider Ricardo Santana. A half-length defeat by eventual Grade 3 Lexington winner King Fury in the Street Sense was this colt’s previous claim to fame last year, and it came over the Churchill Downs strip. Of note is that one of his third-place finishes at 2 came nearly five lengths behind Kentucky Derby favorite Essential Quality in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. ROCK YOUR WORLD: Previously unbeaten in a pair of impressive turf races – including a maiden and stakes victory – this son of Candy Ride upset heavily favored Medina Spirit with a wire-to-wire tally in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. Trainer John Sadler was not surprised at the outcome, as he anticipated that this colt possessed mad skills. A March 28 bullet, five-furlong workout in :59 1/5 (best-of-76) enhanced confidence in the colt and he delivered the Grade 1 victory. Detractors will point to Sadler’s lackluster record when racing out of town in graded stakes, but the conditioner saddled Accelerate to win the 2018 BC Classic at Churchill Downs—home of the Kentucky Derby. Besides the added distance, Rock Your World is expected to face more early pressure in the Derby than he did in the Arcadia version. How he reacts to that will decide where he finishes in the Run for the Roses. He raced a bit greenly in the SA Derby stretch, changing leads back and forth, but it didn’t matter. He was that good. Interesting note: the breeders of Rock Your World are Hall of Fame trainer Ron McAnally and his wife, Debbie. 1/ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 2 MEET THE 2021 DERBY CONTENDERS By Johnny D., @XBJohnnyD KNOWN AGENDA: Gulfstream Park Championship Meet top trainer Todd Pletcher and leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. combined skills with Known Agenda to win the Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby. No surprise there. What was a bit surprising, though, were the juicy, nearly 9/2 odds his backers enjoyed. Fresh off an 11-length allowance tally while sporting a new set of blinkers, this son of Curlin got a bit lost in the Florida Derby wagering behind favored Greatest Honour. Perhaps, a field-splitting, well-beaten fifth as favorite in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby had left a poor taste in collective horseplayers’ mouths. Worse than third only once in six starts, Known Agenda boasts just two wins—a maiden and the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Others have much better resumes than this guy, but he’s hot right now for a trainer destined to enter the Hall of Fame in a few months and already with a couple of Derby trophies. MEDINA SPIRIT: Medina Spirit sent backers home with empty pockets following a disappointing runner-up performance to Rock Your World as the less-than-even-money favorite in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. It was a perplexing April for trainer Bob Baffert as Concert Tour also came up short at odds-on in the Arkansas Derby. Medina Spirit’s only two previous losses in four starts had come against stablemate Life is Good, who has been sidelined to injury. This guy has some early pace, but is more of a ‘grinder’ than a speedster. While he’s never been worse than second in five starts, he’ll need to pick up his game to win the Kentucky Derby. He’s steady and trained by six- time Derby winner Baffert, who seeks a record No. 7. HIGHLY MOTIVATED: Off a slightly troubled, close third as favorite in the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct, trainer Chad Brown boldly shipped this son of Into Mischief to Keeneland and a head-on collision with top-ranked soph Essential Quality in the Grade 2 Blue Grass. The move nearly worked as the unbeaten 2-year-old champ had to dig deep in the stretch to survive a neck decision over Highly Motivated. A stakes winner at two, this colt has never been worse than third in five starts with two wins and two seconds. He did have things his own way early in the Grade 2 Blue Grass, but it was an important forward step for the colt going a mile and one-eighth for the first time. KENTUCKY OAKS MONEY-BACK SPECIAL GET YOUR CASH BACK, UP TO $20, IF THE HORSE YOU BET TO WIN THE KENTUCKY OAKS FINISHES 2ND OR 3RD. FRIDAY, APRIL 30 // CHURCHILL DOWNS // RACE #11 (5:51PM ET) Void where prohibited. National Gambling Support Line 800.522.4700. 1/ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 3 1/ST BET // BET THE KENTUCKY DERBY $10 CREDIT+$500 BONUS • FAST, EASY WAGERING • AI PICKS + CUSTOMIZE YOUR HANDICAPPING • HD VIDEO & REPLAYS SIGN UP PROMO CODE: SPORTOFKINGS THE OFFICIAL APP OF: PREAKNESS // SANTA ANITA PARK // GULFSTREAM PARK PIMLICO // GOLDEN GATE FIELDS // LAUREL PARK // PEGASUS WORLD CUP Promotional offer valid through 12/31/2021. Open to new 1/ST signups only. Customer will receive $10 wagering credit after signup. Additional wagering credits will be deposited in $10 increments for every $100 wagered within 30 days of sign up. To qualify for full $500 wagering credit, new account holders must wager $5,000 within 30 calendar days of sign up. Wagers that are refunded or cancelled will not be counted as eligible wa- gers. Promotional wagering credits will be deposited by 1/ST into your account within five business days of reaching each $10 increment. Wagering credits are different from cash, and cannot be transferred, redeemed or withdrawn. Unused wagering credits will be withdrawn 30 days after they are deposited. Must be 18 or older (21 in AL, AZ, IA, IN, KS, NH, ND, WA) to open an account with 1/ST BET and reside in a state where such activity is legal. Void where prohibited. Cannot be combined with any other offer. National Gambling Support Line 800.522.4700. HANDICAP THE DERBY LIKE EDDIE OLCZYK ? DID YOU KNOW? The 1/ST BET app uses more than 50 factors in evaluating each horse in a race, drawing from a library of more than 200,000 previous races to match past success with future success. 1/ST BET automatically matches and ranks the proven, most successful factors in each race, while We asked renowned 1/ST and NBC handicapper Eddie Olczyk which it also gives you the ability to select handicapping angles he applies when analyzing the Kentucky Derby. Now, for the your own set of factors to make first time, you can reconstruct Edzo’s approach and put it to work for yourself by personalized, artificial intelligence- based selections in mere seconds. combining forces with the 1/ST BET app. Olczyk’s keys center on a horse’s speed to the mile marker at the head of the Kentucky Derby stretch, pedigree for the distance and how weather and conditions may impact his selections. “Jockey and trainer stats aren’t for me in the Kentucky Derby,” Olczyk said. “At that level, they’re all capable with the right horse.” THE MILE MARKER 1/ST BET FACTORS TO APPLY “Where are you when the lead horse gets to the one-mile point in the mile and BEST LIFETIME SPEED one-quarter race? That’s the key,” Olczyk explained.
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