2014 Shareholder's Report

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

2014 Shareholder's Report National Weather Service 2014 Shareholder’s Report La Crosse, National Weather Service, La Crosse, WI Wisconsin web: http://weather.gov/lacrosse mobile web forecast access: email: [email protected] Find us on Facebook: mobile.weather.gov US National Weather Service La Crosse Wisconsin Weather Information Services that Mean Something or Twitter: By now, you may have heard weather element, good, timely @NWSLaCrosse the National Weather Service decisions can save lives. And (NWS) talking about “Decision sometimes, that may include you Support Services (DSS)” for or those close to you. weather. But you may not be NWS La Crosse sure what that means to you. When I was a young manager in the NWS, I was told by one of Management Team If you’re like most people, you my forecasters that “we don’t may get your weather infor- even know who uses our fore- Glenn Lussky Meteorologist in Charge (MIC) mation from the local radio or casts, or even if anyone does.” TV station, or perhaps you use While I knew some people used Todd Shea the NWS web site to access our forecasts (e.g., the media), Example of NWS La Crosse graphical Warning Coordination the very latest information. You that forecaster was largely right. Meteorologist (WCM) weather story. This type of information hear or look at the forecast We didn’t know many of our supplements our historically traditional Dan Baumgardt and consider how it may im- users or, even more importantly, routine forecasts. Science and Operations Officer pact any activities you, your what information they needed, (SOO) family, or your business may when they needed it, or whether you can, whether for your family, have during that time period. the information we were provid- your business, or for a specific event. Mike Struver Please check out and share our social Electronic Systems Analyst (ESA) ing met their information needs. The forecast can help, for sure. media posts, our web page news Randy Breeser But sometimes, people need That forecaster was 20 years stories, and our graphical short term Data Acquisition Program forecasts and recorded briefings. Manager (DAPM) more or different information ahead of his time. Today, it is to help them make good deci- our goal - no, our purpose - to They are there specifically for you! sions. With the help of NWS know what information people impact-based DSS information, want or need and provide it to I welcome your comments regarding how we can provide better weather Inside this Issue: communities and event manag- them in a clear and timely man- ers are more frequently making ner. That, is DSS, and it applies information for you - whenever, Cold Weather and 2 educated weather-related deci- to everyone we serve. wherever and however you need it! the Polar Vortex sions, with a goal of keeping their citizens or patrons safe. In this regard, we are making Social Media Expan- 2 sion at NWS La Whether the event includes every effort to provide not just a Glenn R. Lussky Crosse extreme cold, slippery roads, forecast, but impact-based infor- lightning, high winds, torna- mation that helps you make the Meteorologist in Charge (MIC) Web-based Storm 3 does, flooding, or any other best weather safety decisions NWS La Crosse, WI Summaries July 22nd “Refuge” 4 Decision Support Update Tornado—The Im- portance of Storm The NWS continues to ad- ules a webinar briefing to Spotters vance services which assist emergency management and partner groups in making criti- community preparedness AWIPS-2: Open 4 cal decisions during hazardous groups. Roughly 10 minutes Architecture to Add weather. This “Decision Sup- long, these live briefings via Future Flexibility port” work and development is the web include a slide set Awards, Recognition 5 a focus at the La Crosse NWS explaining the expected and Personnel office, and we’ve added new weather and potential impacts Changes and enhanced methods to planners can expect. In addi- share key information. tion, this interaction provides Forecasting an His- 6 Sample briefing slide from January 3, 2014 toric Late Spring an opportunity for those on Snow Event: May 2- Decision Support Webinars: the call to ask our meteorolo- 3, 2013 Preceding episodes of poten- gists about specific questions or Webinars have been used for a tially hazardous weather, the La concerns they may have. number of years, with attendance Crosse NWS typically sched- (continued on page 3) Page 2 2014 Shareholder’s Report Cold Weather and the Polar Vortex The winter of 2013-14 has been quite cold ester, this has been their coldest weather Any intrusion of very cold air over central across the eastern two-thirds of the United for this time period in the last 30 years. North America in winter is simply an ex- States. Through January. the greatest de- tension (or shifting) of the polar vortex partures from normal (9 to 14°F below While many had never heard of the polar into the region. This winter, the polar normal) were across Upper Michigan and vortex prior to this winter, meteorolo- vortex has shifted substantially over both the northern portions of Minnesota and gists have been well aware of this feature Siberia (Asia) and North America. Wisconsin. for a very long time (one literature search indicates it was first described in On several occasions this winter, cold air From December 1st through February 6th, the scientific literature in 1853). In fact, masses originating over Siberia (where the this has been the coldest winter at La the polar vortex is a centerpiece of the coldest land temperatures are usually Crosse, Wisconsin (11.7°F) and Rochester, global circulation pattern. It is always observed during the winter) have moved Minnesota (9.2°F) since 1983-84. there, in one form or another. over the North Pole into northern Cana- da. Under certain flow regimes, these The polar vortex is simply a low pressure very cold air masses can be transported area in the upper atmosphere centered southward into the central U.S. In sea- generally over the polar regions (both sons where these flow regimes dominate northern and southern hemispheres). (such as this winter), the result can be a The polar vortex is that ring of cold air very cold winter for the central U.S. that sits on the poleward side of the polar jet stream. The associated wind While this winter has been atypically cold system which surrounds the polar vortex over our area, this isn’t something that is is the westerly mid-latitude jet stream. due to a new scientific finding. It is simply a manifestation of one particular global By definition, the polar jet stream is lo- circulation pattern which has consistently cated on the periphery of the polar maintained a cold portion of the polar vortex. This jet stream demarks the vortex over our area this winter. equatorial extent of the cold arctic air. There are times when the polar vortex is centered near the pole, with most of the very cold air confined to the polar regions. However, there are other NP NP Locales to our north have had an even times when portions of the polar vor- more extreme winter. During the same tex push southward (often toward the period of time, Duluth, Minnesota had an Eurasian or North American land average temperature of 3.0°F. This is al- masses), leading to stronger southward most 10°F below their 1981-2010 normal, intrusions of cold air into those areas. and is the 3rd coldest on record (since At those times, the pole and other At left, the polar vortex keeps the cold air centered on the pole, with few intrusions of polar air into the 1875) for this time period. Only the win- mid-latitude regions typically have mid-latitudes. At right, the polar vortex has split ters of 1917-18 and 1976-77 were colder. warmer than normal conditions as and pushed southward over the main Northern The Twin Cities have averaged 9.8°F (6.7°F the cold air slides southward. Hemisphere land masses, and warmer than normal below normal). Like La Crosse and Roch- air is located over the North Pole (NP). Social Media Expansion at NWS La Crosse The past year has featured a significant saving information as we can. In that re- As of February 1, 2014, we had 4,244 Face- expansion of social media services that gard, social media can play a crucial role in book and 1,696 Twitter followers, with new the NWS La Crosse office provides via people finding our pages every day. A num- Facebook, Twitter and YouTube. “Through the power of information ber of followers post pictures and reports sharing, social media provides a great to our pages, which we share with others, Posts to Facebook and Twitter are typi- especially when inclement weather is occur- way for us to reach many more people cally made at least once each day to give ring. Twitter users can append our hashtag a general overview of the most im- than just those who closely follow the (#nwsarx) to their tweets to alert us of portant upcoming weather story. As traditional NWS information stream.” their information. We have also started to more significant weather events are use YouTube to post short briefings on forecast (or occur), our activity on these our entire DSS program, as they help upcoming weather events, along with educa- social media sites increases in an effort spread impact-based information people tional and outreach material. to communicate as much potentially life- need to make good, life-saving decisions.
Recommended publications
  • (QBO) Impact on the Boreal Winter Polar Vortex
    https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-1119 Preprint. Discussion started: 14 January 2020 c Author(s) 2020. CC BY 4.0 License. A tropospheric pathway of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) impact on the boreal winter polar vortex Koji Yamazaki1, Tetsu Nakamura1, Jinro Ukita2, and Kazuhira Hoshi3 5 1Faculty of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, 060-0810, Japan 2Faculty of Science, Niigata University, Niigata, 950-2181, Japan 3Graduate School of Science and Technology, Niigata University, Niigata, 950-2181, Japan 10 Correspondence to: Koji Yamazaki ([email protected]) Abstract. The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is quasi-periodic oscillation of the tropical zonal wind in the stratosphere. When the tropical lower stratospheric wind is easterly (westerly), the winter Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar vortex tends to be weak (strong). This relation is known as Holton-Tan relationship. Several mechanisms for this relationship have been proposed, especially linking the tropics with high-latitudes through stratospheric pathway. Although QBO impacts 15 on the troposphere have been extensively discussed, a tropospheric pathway of the Holton-Tan relationship has not been explored previously. We here propose a tropospheric pathway of the QBO impact, which may partly account for the Holton- Tan relationship in early winter, especially in the November-December period. The study is based on analyses on observational data and results from a simple linear model and atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations. The mechanism is summarized as follows: the easterly phase of the QBO is accompanied with colder temperature in the 20 tropical tropopause layer, which enhances convective activity over the tropical western Pacific and suppresses over the Indian Ocean, thus enhancing the Walker circulation.
    [Show full text]
  • Program At-A-Glance
    Sunday, 29 September 2019 Dinner (6:30–8:00 PM) ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ Monday, 30 September 2019 Breakfast (7:00–8:00 AM) Session 1: Extratropical Cyclone Structure and Dynamics: Part I (8:00–10:00 AM) Chair: Michael Riemer Time Author(s) Title 8:00–8:40 Spengler 100th Anniversary of the Bergen School of Meteorology Paper Raveh-Rubin 8:40–9:00 Climatology and Dynamics of the Link Between Dry Intrusions and Cold Fronts and Catto Tochimoto 9:00–9:20 Structures of Extratropical Cyclones Developing in Pacific Storm Track and Niino 9:20–9:40 Sinclair and Dacre Poleward Moisture Transport by Extratropical Cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere 9:40–10:00 Discussion Break (10:00–10:30 AM) Session 2: Jet Dynamics and Diagnostics (10:30 AM–12:10 PM) Chair: Victoria Sinclair Time Author(s) Title Breeden 10:30–10:50 Evidence for Nonlinear Processes in Fostering a North Pacific Jet Retraction and Martin Finocchio How the Jet Stream Controls the Downstream Response to Recurving 10:50–11:10 and Doyle Tropical Cyclones: Insights from Idealized Simulations 11:10–11:30 Madsen and Martin Exploring Characteristic Intraseasonal Transitions of the Wintertime Pacific Jet Stream The Role of Subsidence during the Development of North American 11:30–11:50 Winters et al. Polar/Subtropical Jet Superpositions 11:50–12:10 Discussion Lunch (12:10–1:10 PM) Session 3: Rossby Waves (1:10–3:10 PM) Chair: Annika Oertel Time Author(s) Title Recurrent Synoptic-Scale Rossby Wave Patterns and Their Effect on the Persistence of 1:10–1:30 Röthlisberger et al.
    [Show full text]
  • Reducing Tornado Fatalities Outside Traditional “Tornado
    Reducing Tornado Fatalities Outside Traditional “Tornado Alley” Erin A. Thead May 2016 Introduction Atmospheric scientists have long suspected that climate change produces an increase in weather extremes of all varieties, but tornadoes are an unusually tricky case. A recent publication from the National Academy of Sciences summarizes the state of the art in the new discipline of event attribution, finding that that, although tornadoes are among the most difficult extreme weather events attribute to anthropogenic climate change, improvements in modeling and climate-weather model coupling have made possible some degree of probabilistic attribution.1 At present it seems likely that the influence of climate change on tornadoes is indirect, manifested largely by more direct influences on natural climate cycles such as the amplitude of waves in the jet stream that bounds the polar vortex and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with which severe tornado seasons and their predominant locations have been loosely linked.2,3 Researchers are not yet in a position to say for sure what if any role climate change has played in the increases in tornado frequency and severity we have seen over the past 50 years.4 However, we need not wait until these issues are sorted out to begin working to protect vulnerable populations. In what follows, I first give some background on the increasingly significant threat posed by tornadoes and then outline some proactive steps governments and other entities can take to keep people safe. A Disturbing Trend A disturbing trend has already developed concerning tornado fatalities. After several decades of decline that can largely be credited to a great increase in forecasting skills and warning lead time, the United States fatality rate for tornadoes has leveled off, although there may have been a slight increase in recent years.
    [Show full text]
  • Observed Cyclone–Anticyclone Tropopause Vortex Asymmetries
    JANUARY 2005 H A K I M A N D CANAVAN 231 Observed Cyclone–Anticyclone Tropopause Vortex Asymmetries GREGORY J. HAKIM AND AMELIA K. CANAVAN University of Washington, Seattle, Washington (Manuscript received 30 September 2003, in final form 28 June 2004) ABSTRACT Relatively little is known about coherent vortices near the extratropical tropopause, even with regard to basic facts about their frequency of occurrence, longevity, and structure. This study addresses these issues through an objective census of observed tropopause vortices. The authors test a hypothesis regarding vortex-merger asymmetry where cyclone pairs are repelled and anticyclone pairs are attracted by divergent flow due to frontogenesis. Emphasis is placed on arctic vortices, where jet stream influences are weaker, in order to facilitate comparisons with earlier idealized numerical simulations. Results show that arctic cyclones are more numerous, persistent, and stronger than arctic anticyclones. An average of 15 cyclonic vortices and 11 anticyclonic vortices are observed per month, with maximum frequency of occurrence for cyclones (anticyclones) during winter (summer). There are are about 47% more cyclones than anticyclones that survive at least 4 days, and for longer lifetimes, 1-day survival probabilities are nearly constant at 65% for cyclones, and 55% for anticyclones. Mean tropopause potential-temperature amplitude is 13 K for cyclones and 11 K for anticyclones, with cyclones exhibiting a greater tail toward larger values. An analysis of close-proximity vortex pairs reveals divergence between cyclones and convergence be- tween anticyclones. This result agrees qualitatively with previous idealized numerical simulations, although it is unclear to what extent the divergent circulations regulate vortex asymmetries.
    [Show full text]
  • The North Atlantic Variability Structure, Storm Tracks, and Precipitation Depending on the Polar Vortex Strength
    Atmos. Chem. Phys., 5, 239–248, 2005 www.atmos-chem-phys.org/acp/5/239/ Atmospheric SRef-ID: 1680-7324/acp/2005-5-239 Chemistry European Geosciences Union and Physics The North Atlantic variability structure, storm tracks, and precipitation depending on the polar vortex strength K. Walter1 and H.-F. Graf1,2 1Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 54, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany 2Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge, Dept. Geography, Cambridge, CB2 3EN, UK Received: 10 June 2004 – Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 5 October 2004 Revised: 7 December 2004 – Accepted: 27 January 2005 – Published: 1 February 2005 Abstract. Motivated by the strong evidence that the state 1 Introduction of the northern hemisphere vortex in boreal winter influ- ences tropospheric variability, teleconnection patterns over During boreal winter the climate in large parts of the North- the North Atlantic are defined separately for winter episodes ern Hemisphere is under the influence of the North Atlantic where the zonal wind at 50 hPa and 65◦ N is above or below Oscillation (NAO). The latter constitutes the dominant mode the critical velocity for vertical propagation of zonal plane- of tropospheric variability in the North Atlantic region in- tary wave 1. We argue that the teleconnection structure in the cluding the North American East Coast and Europe, with ex- middle and upper troposphere differs considerably between tensions to Siberia and the Eastern Mediterranean. The NAO the two regimes of the polar vortex, while this is not the case is characterised by a meridional oscillation of mass between at sea level. If the polar vortex is strong, there exists one two major centres of action over the subtropical Atlantic and meridional dipole structure of geopotential height in the up- near Iceland: the Azores High and the Iceland Low.
    [Show full text]
  • Interaction of Tropical Cyclones with a Dipole Vortex
    Chapter 2 Interaction of Tropical Cyclones with a Dipole Vortex Ismael Perez‐Garcia, Alejandro Aguilar‐Sierra and Jaime Hernández Additional information is available at the end of the chapter http://dx.doi.org/10.5772/65953 Abstract The purpose of this chapter is to discuss certain disturbances around the pole of a Venus–type planet that result as a response to barotropic instability processes in a zonal flow. We discuss a linear instability of normal modes in a zonal flow through the barotropic vorticity equations (BVEs). By using a simple idealization of a zonal flow, the instability is employed on measurements of the upper atmosphere of Venus. In 1998, the tropical cyclone Mitch gave way to the observational study of a dipole vortex. This dipole vortex might have helped to intensify the cyclone and moved it towards the SW. In order to examine this process of interaction, the nonlinear BVE was integrated in time applied to the 800–200 hPa average layer in the previous moment when it moved towards the SW. The 2-day integrations carried out with the model showed that the geometric structure of the solution can be calculated to a good approximation. The solution HLC moves very fast westwards as observed. On October 27, the HLA headed north-eastward and then became quasi-stationary. It was also observed that HLA and HLC as a coupled system rotates in the clockwise direction. Keywords: polar vortices Venus, barotropic vorticity equation, normal mode instabil- ity, tropical cyclone, American monsoon system. 1. Introduction The air at the equatorial regions rises when heated by the sun and as it does, it cools down and sinks.
    [Show full text]
  • Spring 2014 Volume V-1
    The Coastal Front Spring 2014 Volume V-1 Skywarn Spotter Training Photo by John Jensenius By Chris Kimble, Forecaster Inside This Issue: Over the last several decades, technology has greatly improved our ability to observe and forecast the weather. Tools like satellite and radar provide more insight than ever into what the weather is doing Severe WX: Be Prepared Page 2 right now. Computers have allowed for greater integration of all the Dual Pol Radar Page 3 data, and complex forecast models provide valuable insight into how Winter Weather Review Page 4 weather systems will evolve over the next several days. But, no matter how December Ice Storm Page 5 advanced technol- Polar Vortex Explained Page 6 ogy has become, Staff Profile Page 7 forecasters rely on Note From the Editors Page 9 volunteers to re- port the ground truth of what’s Editor-in-Chief: Chris Kimble really happening in their town. Editors: Stacie Hanes Margaret Curtis While weather Michael Kistner radar is a great Figure 1: A supercell thunderstorm tracks across Nichole Becker tool to view Portland, Maine on June 23, 2013. Photo by Chris thunderstorms and Legro. Meteorologist in Charge (MIC): Hendricus Lulofs other precipitation events above the ground, there are often significant gaps between Warning Coordination what the radar sees above the ground and what is observed at ground Meteorologist (WCM): John Jensenius level where it matters most. Skywarn Storm Spotters provide invaluable information to NWS forecasters during and after severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, flash floods, and snow storms. If you have an interest in weather and want to become a volunteer Skywarn Storm Spotter, attend one of our Skywarn training sessions.
    [Show full text]
  • 5. Analyses and Forecasts of Stratospheric Winter Polar Vortex Break-Up: September 2002 in the Southern Hemisphere and Related Events from ECMWF Operations and ERA-40
    ERA-40 Project Report Series 5. Analyses and forecasts of stratospheric winter polar vortex break-up: September 2002 in the Southern Hemisphere and related events from ECMWF operations and ERA-40 Adrian Simmons, Mariano Hortal, Graeme Kelly, Anthony McNally, Agathe Untch and Sakari Uppala European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Europäisches Zentrum für mittelfristige Wettervorhersage Centre européen pour les prévisions météorologiques à moyen terme For additional copies contact: The Library ECMWF Shinfield Park Reading, Berks RG2 9AX [email protected] Series: ERA40 Project Report Series A full list of ECMWF Publications can be found on our web site under: http://www.ecmwf.int/publications/ © Copyright 2003 European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Shinfield Park, Reading, Berkshire RG2 9AX, England Literary and scientific copyrights belong to ECMWF and are reserved in all countries. This publication is not to be reprinted or translated in whole or in part without the written permission of the Director. Appropriate non- commercial use will normally be granted under the condition that reference is made to ECMWF. The information within this publication is given in good faith and considered to be true, but ECMWF accepts no liability for error, omission and for loss or damage arising from its use. ERA-40 project report series no.5 Analyses and forecasts of stratospheric winter polar vortex break-up: September 2002 in the southern hemisphere and related events from ECMWF operations and ERA-40 Adrian Simmons, Mariano Hortal, Graeme Kelly, Anthony McNally, Agathe Untch and Sakari Uppala Research Department March 2003 Analyses and forecasts of stratospheric winter polar vortex break-up ABSTRACT Break-up of the polar stratospheric vortex in the northern hemisphere is an event that is known to be predictable for up to a week or so ahead.
    [Show full text]
  • Explaining the Trends and Variability in the United States Tornado Records
    www.nature.com/scientificreports OPEN Explaining the trends and variability in the United States tornado records using climate teleconnections and shifts in observational practices Niloufar Nouri1*, Naresh Devineni1,2*, Valerie Were2 & Reza Khanbilvardi1,2 The annual frequency of tornadoes during 1950–2018 across the major tornado-impacted states were examined and modeled using anthropogenic and large-scale climate covariates in a hierarchical Bayesian inference framework. Anthropogenic factors include increases in population density and better detection systems since the mid-1990s. Large-scale climate variables include El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacifc Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). The model provides a robust way of estimating the response coefcients by considering pooling of information across groups of states that belong to Tornado Alley, Dixie Alley, and Other States, thereby reducing their uncertainty. The infuence of the anthropogenic factors and the large-scale climate variables are modeled in a nested framework to unravel secular trend from cyclical variability. Population density explains the long-term trend in Dixie Alley. The step-increase induced due to the installation of the Doppler Radar systems explains the long-term trend in Tornado Alley. NAO and the interplay between NAO and ENSO explained the interannual to multi-decadal variability in Tornado Alley. PDO and AMO are also contributing to this multi-time scale variability. SOI and AO explain the cyclical variability in Dixie Alley. This improved understanding of the variability and trends in tornadoes should be of immense value to public planners, businesses, and insurance-based risk management agencies.
    [Show full text]
  • A Quick Guide to Important Drivers of US Winter Weather Patterns
    A Quick Guide to Important Drivers of US Winter Weather Patterns Web: www.frontierweather.com Email: [email protected] Phone: 918-252-7791 Twitter: @FrontierWeather Facebook: www.facebook.com/frontierweather KEY TERMS NORMAL YEAR PATTERN El Niño: An anomalous warming of the No strong SST anomalies central and eastern equatorial Pacific that occurs every 3-7 years. SST: Sea Surface Temperature Niño 3.4: A region of the Pacific between 5°N – 5°S and 120° – 170°W. SST Trade winds blow from east to west, concentrating the warmest water anomalies in this region are often used to and most of the tropical convection in the western tropical Pacific. define El Niño. Average actual SST pattern, not anomalies wind direction ONI: Oceanic Niño Index, a 3 month warmest average of the Nino 3.4 anomalies. water MEI: Multivariate ENSO Index. A six variable composite index of El Niño. EL NINO YEAR PATTERN Shifts in tropical convection are what drive global weather pattern changes during El Niño. SST anomaly pattern Tropical convection strength and location is directly tied to the location and intensity of the warmest anomalies warmest water temperatures. Warmer peak equatorial water temperatures (not anomalies), tend to produce colder eastern US winters. Trade winds slacken or even reverse, allowing warmer water to flow eastward. This shifts tropical convection eastward as well. Average actual SST pattern, not anomalies wind direction warmest water can flip to west El Niño and US Winter Weather Strong El Niño events have cooler peak water temperatures near the dateline. When warm anomalies are located farther west or when the western tropical Pacific stays warm during El Niño, peak water temperatures are higher, and tropical convection is stronger near and west of the dateline.
    [Show full text]
  • The Role of Tropopause Polar Vortices in the Intensification of Summer
    https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-30 Preprint. Discussion started: 7 June 2021 c Author(s) 2021. CC BY 4.0 License. The role of tropopause polar vortices in the intensification of summer Arctic cyclones Suzanne L. Gray1, Kevin I. Hodges1,2, Jonathan L. Vautrey1,*, and John Methven1 1Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6ET, UK 2National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6ET, UK *Now at Met Office, Exeter, UK Correspondence: Suzanne Gray ([email protected]) Abstract. Human activity in the Arctic is increasing as new regions become accessible, with a consequent need for improved understanding of hazardous weather there. Arctic cyclones are the major weather systems affecting the Arctic environment during summer, including the sea ice distribution. Meso- to synoptic-scale tropopause polar vortices (TPVs) frequently occur in polar regions and are a proposed mechanism for Arctic cyclone genesis and intensification. However, while the importance 5 of pre-existing tropopause-level features for cyclone development, and their existence as part of the three-dimensional mature cyclone structure, is well established in the mid-latitudes, evidence of the importance of pre-existing TPVs for Arctic cyclone development is mainly limited to a few case studies. Here we examine the extent to which Arctic cyclone growth is coupled to TPVs by analysing a climatology of summer Arctic cyclones and TPV characteristics produced by tracking both features in the latest ECMWF reanalysis (ERA5). 10 The annual counts of Arctic cyclones and TPVs are significantly correlated for features with genesis either within or outside the Arctic, implying that TPVs have a role in the development of Arctic cyclones.
    [Show full text]
  • Gravity Wave Effects on Polar Vortex Geometry During Split-Type Sudden Stratospheric Warmings
    Gravity Wave Effects on Polar Vortex Geometry During Split-Type Sudden Stratospheric Warmings J. R. Albers1, T. Birner1 1Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO USA Sudden stratospheric warmings represent one of the most compelling tests of our ability to explain and predict the dynamical circulation of the stratosphere. Yet despite significant recent progress in the classification of the geometric structure and evolution of sudden warmings (e.g. split versus displacement events), our understanding of the dynamics underlying these events remains elusive. This fact is especially glaring in light of the fact that stratosphere-troposphere coupling is particularly strong during and after sudden warming events, and therefore our ability to predict tropospheric climate and weather could be improved by gaining a more clear understanding of the dynamics underlying sudden warming events. The traditional sudden stratospheric warming paradigm states that an anomalously strong pulse of planetary wave activity from the troposphere is required in order to trigger an event. However, the results of Matthewman and Esler (JAS 2011) contradict this hypothesis by pointing out that resonant excitation and vortex breakdown can occur for relatively weak wave forcing. With this idea in mind, we utilize reanalysis data to revisit and revise the traditional hypothesis of the necessary conditions for triggering a sudden warming. In this study, reanalysis (JRA25) data, including parameterized gravity wave drag, which extends upwards into the lower mesosphere (~55 km) is used to explore the relationship between gravity wave and planetary wave variability and polar vortex geometry prior to sudden stratospheric warming events. In particular, an attempt is made to identify the key geometric features of the polar vortex that are common to the development of all split-type warming events.
    [Show full text]