2014 Shareholder's Report

National Weather Service 2014 Shareholder’s Report

La Crosse, National Weather Service, La Crosse, WI Wisconsin

web: http://weather.gov/lacrosse mobile web forecast access: email: [email protected] Find us on Facebook: mobile.weather.gov US National Weather Service La Crosse Wisconsin Weather Information Services that Mean Something

or Twitter: By now, you may have heard weather element, good, timely @NWSLaCrosse the National Weather Service decisions can save lives. And (NWS) talking about “Decision sometimes, that may include you Support Services (DSS)” for or those close to you. weather. But you may not be NWS La Crosse sure what that means to you. When I was a young manager in the NWS, I was told by one of Management Team If you’re like most people, you my forecasters that “we don’t may get your weather infor- even know who uses our fore-  Glenn Lussky Meteorologist in Charge (MIC) mation from the local radio or casts, or even if anyone does.” TV station, or perhaps you use While I knew some people used  Todd Shea the NWS web site to access our forecasts (e.g., the media), Example of NWS La Crosse graphical Warning Coordination the very latest information. You that forecaster was largely right. Meteorologist (WCM) weather story. This type of information hear or look at the forecast We didn’t know many of our supplements our historically traditional  Dan Baumgardt and consider how it may im- users or, even more importantly, routine forecasts. Science and Operations Officer pact any activities you, your what information they needed, (SOO) family, or your business may when they needed it, or whether you can, whether for your family,

have during that time period. the information we were provid- your business, or for a specific event.  Mike Struver Please check out and share our social Electronic Systems Analyst (ESA) ing met their information needs. The forecast can help, for sure. media posts, our web page news  Randy Breeser But sometimes, people need That forecaster was 20 years stories, and our graphical short term Data Acquisition Program forecasts and recorded briefings. Manager (DAPM) more or different information ahead of his time. Today, it is to help them make good deci- our goal - no, our purpose - to They are there specifically for you! sions. With the help of NWS know what information people impact-based DSS information, want or need and provide it to I welcome your comments regarding how we can provide better weather Inside this Issue: communities and event manag- them in a clear and timely man- ers are more frequently making ner. That, is DSS, and it applies information for you - whenever, Cold Weather and 2 educated weather-related deci- to everyone we serve. wherever and however you need it! the Polar Vortex sions, with a goal of keeping their citizens or patrons safe. In this regard, we are making Social Media Expan- 2 sion at NWS La Whether the event includes every effort to provide not just a Glenn R. Lussky Crosse extreme cold, slippery roads, forecast, but impact-based infor- lightning, high winds, torna- mation that helps you make the Meteorologist in Charge (MIC) Web-based Storm 3 does, flooding, or any other best weather safety decisions NWS La Crosse, WI Summaries July 22nd “Refuge” 4 Decision Support Update Tornado—The Im- portance of Storm The NWS continues to ad- ules a webinar briefing to Spotters vance services which assist emergency management and partner groups in making criti- community preparedness AWIPS-2: Open 4 cal decisions during hazardous groups. Roughly 10 minutes Architecture to Add weather. This “Decision Sup- long, these live briefings via Future Flexibility port” work and development is the web include a slide set Awards, Recognition 5 a focus at the La Crosse NWS explaining the expected and Personnel office, and we’ve added new weather and potential impacts Changes and enhanced methods to planners can expect. In addi- share key information. tion, this interaction provides Forecasting an His- 6 Sample briefing slide from January 3, 2014 toric Late Spring an opportunity for those on Snow Event: May 2- Decision Support Webinars: the call to ask our meteorolo- 3, 2013 Preceding episodes of poten- gists about specific questions or Webinars have been used for a tially hazardous weather, the La concerns they may have. number of years, with attendance Crosse NWS typically sched- (continued on page 3) Page 2 2014 Shareholder’s Report Cold Weather and the Polar Vortex

The winter of 2013-14 has been quite cold ester, this has been their coldest weather Any intrusion of very cold air over central across the eastern two-thirds of the United for this time period in the last 30 years. North America in winter is simply an ex- States. Through January. the greatest de- tension (or shifting) of the polar vortex partures from normal (9 to 14°F below While many had never heard of the polar into the region. This winter, the polar normal) were across Upper Michigan and vortex prior to this winter, meteorolo- vortex has shifted substantially over both the northern portions of Minnesota and gists have been well aware of this feature Siberia (Asia) and North America. Wisconsin. for a very long time (one literature search indicates it was first described in On several occasions this winter, cold air From December 1st through February 6th, the scientific literature in 1853). In fact, masses originating over Siberia (where the this has been the coldest winter at La the polar vortex is a centerpiece of the coldest land temperatures are usually Crosse, Wisconsin (11.7°F) and Rochester, global circulation pattern. It is always observed during the winter) have moved Minnesota (9.2°F) since 1983-84. there, in one form or another. over the North Pole into northern Cana- da. Under certain flow regimes, these The polar vortex is simply a low pressure very cold air masses can be transported area in the upper atmosphere centered southward into the central U.S. In sea- generally over the polar regions (both sons where these flow regimes dominate northern and southern hemispheres). (such as this winter), the result can be a The polar vortex is that ring of cold air very cold winter for the central U.S. that sits on the poleward side of the polar jet stream. The associated wind While this winter has been atypically cold system which surrounds the polar vortex over our area, this isn’t something that is is the westerly mid-latitude jet stream. due to a new scientific finding. It is simply a manifestation of one particular global By definition, the polar jet stream is lo- circulation pattern which has consistently cated on the periphery of the polar maintained a cold portion of the polar vortex. This jet stream demarks the vortex over our area this winter. equatorial extent of the cold arctic air. There are times when the polar vortex is centered near the pole, with most of the very cold air confined to the polar regions. However, there are other NP NP Locales to our north have had an even times when portions of the polar vor- more extreme winter. During the same tex push southward (often toward the period of time, Duluth, Minnesota had an Eurasian or North American land average temperature of 3.0°F. This is al- masses), leading to stronger southward most 10°F below their 1981-2010 normal, intrusions of cold air into those areas. and is the 3rd coldest on record (since At those times, the pole and other At left, the polar vortex keeps the cold air centered on the pole, with few intrusions of polar air into the 1875) for this time period. Only the win- mid-latitude regions typically have mid-latitudes. At right, the polar vortex has split ters of 1917-18 and 1976-77 were colder. warmer than normal conditions as and pushed southward over the main Northern The Twin Cities have averaged 9.8°F (6.7°F the cold air slides southward. Hemisphere land masses, and warmer than normal below normal). Like La Crosse and Roch- air is located over the North Pole (NP).

Social Media Expansion at NWS La Crosse

The past year has featured a significant saving information as we can. In that re- As of February 1, 2014, we had 4,244 Face- expansion of social media services that gard, social media can play a crucial role in book and 1,696 Twitter followers, with new the NWS La Crosse office provides via people finding our pages every day. A num- Facebook, Twitter and YouTube. “Through the power of information ber of followers post pictures and reports sharing, social media provides a great to our pages, which we share with others, Posts to Facebook and Twitter are typi- especially when inclement weather is occur- way for us to reach many more people cally made at least once each day to give ring. Twitter users can append our hashtag a general overview of the most im- than just those who closely follow the (#nwsarx) to their tweets to alert us of portant upcoming weather story. As traditional NWS information stream.” their information. We have also started to more significant weather events are use YouTube to post short briefings on forecast (or occur), our activity on these our entire DSS program, as they help upcoming weather events, along with educa- social media sites increases in an effort spread impact-based information people tional and outreach material. to communicate as much potentially life- need to make good, life-saving decisions. (continued on page 3) web: http://weather.gov/lacrosse Page 3

Social Media (continued from page 2) Internally, we use the social media dashboard, Hootsuite, to moni- traditional NWS information stream. Without a doubt, social tor our Facebook and Twitter feeds. We also use Hootsuite (and media is a powerful and effective way to get important infor- Tweetdeck) to perform a variety of real-time Twitter searches for mation out to many people, and it also allows those people to key words that are posted from within a 100 mile radius of La share that information with their social media contacts. We Crosse, Wisconsin. These key words include weather-related encourage our followers to share our information, especially events such as tornado, damage, blizzard and so on. This gives us that which could save lives and property. an easy method to identify weather- related posts associated with any ongo- If you would like to follow us on social media, you can do so ing weather event, even if those posting via the following locations: the information are not following us. Facebook: One of our most important office goals https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.LaCrosse.gov has always been to reach as many people as possible with critical severe Twitter: weather, winter storm or other haz- The social media network https://twitter.com/NWSLaCrosse can be a very powerful ardous weather information that they Twitter Storm Reports to NWS La Crosse: #nwsarx and effective way to share need. Through the power of infor- critical, life-saving weather mation sharing, social media provides a YouTube:

information with family way for us to reach many more people http://www.youtube.com/NWSLaCrosseWI and friends. than just those who closely follow the

Web-based Storm Summaries

Did you know the La Crosse NWS office Internet web pages are developed that happened, 2) help coordinate the infor- documents and records specifics about summarize each weather event, including mation for media and Emergency Manage- larger, more impactful weather in the items like simple radar imagery, snowfall ment partners, and 3) provide a focus for region? Better yet, did you know this col- maps, damage photos, or listings of actual later review or research to improve our lection of storm summaries goes back to storm or snow reports. overall services. the late 1990s? These summaries are usually included as a You can find the archive of past summar- Typically, after each significant weather news story on our main web site ies on our “Storm Summaries” link in the event in the NWS La Crosse service area, (weather.gov/lacrosse) shortly after the left column of our web page, or directly at staff members collect and archive a variety events come to an end. We use these http://www.crh.noaa.gov/arx/?n=events. of meteorological fields and graphics. summaries as a way to 1) document what

Decision Support Update (continued from page 1) typically between 30 and 60 people. The these forecasts are typically valid for an webinars might cover weather events like hour or two and might display updates potential severe thunderstorm activity, on storms, heavy snow bands, or any tornadoes, flooding, extreme heat, or variety of expected weather changes. significant winter weather. Graphical forecasts can easily provide a Social Media: Facebook, Twitter and “vision” of what the weather is doing (or YouTube are all public forums where we is expected to do) over the next few are expanding our presence. Each of these hours. These graphics might also aid forums can be very effective in expanding partners as decision support inputs. the reach of our information-sharing DSS Graphical short term forecasts provide both a efforts. See the article on page 2 for more Multimedia Video Briefings: Starting in “picture” of the expected weather and information on our social media activities. 2014, the staff at NWS La Crosse will information on possible impacts. create 3-5 minute multimedia videos to Graphical Short Term Forecasts: The La provide weather updates and trends for These types of videos will cover current Crosse NWS has also begun using graph- significant or impactful weather. These weather, forecast conditions, and the ical short term forecasts on our web page videos will be posted to our YouTube expected impact on the public, and may as another way to alert our partners and channel (www.youtube.com/NWSLaCrosseWI) be viewed at your convenience. Look the public of significant short term weath- and linked to our web page news stories for this useful, new information! er changes. Created as a single graphic, and social media posts. Page 4 2014 Shareholder’s Report

July 22nd “Refuge” Tornado – The Importance of Storm Spotters

On July 22, 2013, scattered severe thunderstorms moved across southeast Minnesota into far western Wisconsin. The possibility of severe storms was forecast, but there was considerable uncertainty regarding the overall tornado threat from these storms.

As the storms rolled through the Winona, Minnesota area, they grew in intensity, enough to prompt Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for the possibility of large hail and gusty winds. Storm spotters in the Winona area were active and reporting back to the La Crosse NWS in real-time. These types of reports are valuable in the overall warning program, providing confirmation of threats and background information our meteorologists can compare with the imagery they see on radar.

During this process, as storms moved over the Mississippi River valley along the Minnesota-Wisconsin border, spotters began providing keys to tornado Wall cloud prior to the tornado, as viewed from Winona. development, including reports of a wall cloud, rotation, and large hail. Mete- orologists at the La Crosse NWS office were able to focus on this storm based on those reports and upgrade our warnings to a Tornado Warning as the storm moved into the Trempealeau Wildlife Refuge on the Wisconsin side. Spotters on the Minnesota and Wisconsin sides of the river reported seeing the funnel and associated tornado, even though it was short-lived and there was no discernable radar signature indicating the presence of a tornado.

The EF0 tornado (winds of 70-75 mph) briefly moved from the river channel to shore, mainly damaging trees and water plant life.

This is just another example of how valuable storm spotter reports are to the warning process. In situations of high impact, the addition of accurate spotter reports to the NWS suite of radar imagery and other information, can lead to better and more timely warnings. Ultimately, this process can save lives. Tornado over the Trempealeau Wildlife Refuge. Photo courtesy of John Redig. AWIPS-2: Open Architecture to Add Future Flexibility In November 2013, the La Crosse NWS became of a broad array of weather infor- cast responsibility for the local area, the ninth office in the nation to install the second mation over the coming dec- including all watch, warning, and adviso- generation Automated Weather and Information ade. The open architecture struc- ry services. Processing System (AWIPS-2) for weather forecast- ture also enables the local staff to ing. This system modernized the previous software alter and build the system for the “The AWIPS-2 system will enable (AWIPS-1) by incorporating an ‘open architecture’ unique challenges of the region (or NWS offices to incorporate and structure, which allows the integration and display local area), while increasing adapta- bility to future emerging technolo- adapt to emerging technology and gies. AWIPS-1 was considered communication streams to enhance more of a ‘closed system’, as it didn’t use modern computing hard- our mission of saving lives.“ ware effectively, and didn’t allow very much flexibility for future im- For the first week after the installation provements or enhancements. of AWIPS-2, the NWS La Crosse staff worked toward re-establishing many The installation of the new system functionalities that did not transfer di- took one full day, with local area rectly from AWIPS-1 to AWIPS-2. By forecast services provided by the the end of November, an estimated NWS Office in Des Moines, Iowa. 90% of the functionality had been re- (Des Moines provides backup fore- built. Because the NWS La Crosse was cast services for the La Crosse only the 9th office nationally to install Lead Forecaster Tim Halbach (foreground), Hydrologist service area during emergency the software, a 30-day stability test Mike Welvaert (back right) and Science Officer Dan failures and hardware/software must be completed before the next installations). By the end of the day, Baumgardt (back left), utilize AWIPS-2 to prepare the Fig 3. (a) Radar reflectivity (left)wave and of (b)NWS correlation offices coefficientinstall AWIPS (right).-2. (continued on page 5) forecast information suite on February 4, 2014. NWS La CrosseWhite had asterisk resumed (*) denotes fore- location of Rochester, MN. web: http://weather.gov/lacrosse Page 5

AWIPS-2 (continued from page 4) One advantage of AWIPS-2 is the ability to display more information to the forecaster. In AWIPS-1, forecasters were limited to 4- panels of data for display at a given time. With AWIPS-2, the sky is the limit. The figure at the right illustrates a thunderstorm display a forecaster might use in AWIPS-2 for a supercell tornado day. Radar reflectivity and wind velocities, the warning-creation polygon software, satellite imagery, cloud- to-ground lightning strikes, current warnings, and rainfall information are all placed in front of the forecaster for interroga- tion. Many of these ‘multiple pane’ displays can be running on a single workstation, allowing the forecaster to visualize, interrogate, and forecast impacts more effectively.

The possibilities with the new AWIPS-2 system are virtually endless. One day, live storm spotter video feeds may be included in a pane adjacent to radar data. While it is difficult to visualize the future, the AWIPS-2 system will enable NWS Offices to incorporate and adapt to emerging technology and Sample display from AWIPS-2. This system allows forecasters to have many communication streams to enhance our fields displayed on their desktop at one time. This makes it easier for forecasters mission of saving lives. to interrogate and assimilate the available information while producing day-to-day or critical weather information for public dissemination and access.

Awards, Recognition and Personnel Changes

2013 marked another year where NWS and manage information. The Iris database been short staffed, the federal budget La Crosse staff members provided signifi- (as its associated display system) is a key challenges of this past year resulted in cant service to the broad agency mission component to maximizing situation aware- a halt to new hires agency-wide. This through special program activities. Two of ness among the operational personnel and fiscally necessary action has created our staff members received the prestigious simplifying data access and product devel- staffing shortages at many NWS offic- NOAA Administrator’s Award this past opment processes. es, as well as in our headquarters August in recognition of their exceptional offices. contributions. The NOAA Administrator’s Lead Forecaster Andy Just received the Award recognizes employees who have award for “exceptional work in implement- With a new federal budget agreement demonstrated exceptional leadership, skill, ing a new, efficient, collaborated and accu- this past month, there is hope that and ingenuity in their contributions that rate medium range forecast methodology we will return to full staffing during bring unusual credit to NOAA. at Weather Forecast Offices. “ As a part of this coming year. In any case, we will a team of forecasters in the NWS Central continue to ensure the best possible Region, Andy was a primary developer of weather information service we can. Two of our staff members received the technological capabilities which have ena- prestigious NOAA Administrator’s bled operational forecasters to utilize sta- tistics and automated processes to provide Award this past August in recognition high quality initial forecast grids in the ex- of their exceptional contributions. tended forecast process (days 4 to 7). This technology has streamlined that forecast process, made it more accurate, and en- Information Technology Officer Matt Davis hanced consistency of the forecasts be- received the award for “the development, tween neighboring forecast offices—all of implementation, and maintenance of the which provide improved service to our Iris database, and associated tools and partners and customers. functions.” Matt led a team of NWS pro- grammers who provided an exceptional There have not been any personnel chang- Andy Just and Matt Davis with their tool for operational personnel to monitor es during this past year. Though we have NOAA Administrator’s Awards. National Weather Service Forecasting an Historic Late Spring Snow Event: May 2-3, 2013 La Crosse, WI The day was Wednesday, May 1, 2013. On the following day, Dodge Center, Minnesota would receive the greatest one-day, May snowfall in Minnesota’s Visit our web site! history. However, this day, May 1st, http://weather.gov/lacrosse seemed fairly normal. Temperatures were in the low 50s in southeast Minne- sota with partial sunshine, and near 60 degrees in western Wisconsin. A cold National Weather Service front passed through quietly late N2788 County Road FA Wednesday, lowering temperatures into La Crosse, WI 54601 the 40s, and rain began falling in the evening. After midnight, heavy snow Phone: 608-784-8275 was falling and accumulating in northeast Public Service: 608-784-7294 Iowa and southeast Minnesota. A band of 10-15” of snow was on the ground email the Meteorologist-in-Charge at: [email protected] by sunrise Thursday. Storm total snowfall from May 2-3, 2013.

Many records were snowfall rate. It’s pretty simple, really. Snow will set for this late sea- accumulate if it falls at a faster rate than it melts. son snowstorm, in- Surging moisture from a rich Gulf of Mexico air cluding Dodge Cen- stream from the south, interacting with a very nar-

Our Mission ter, Minnesota, which row, intense band of lift, were the keys to producing set the all-time Min- the high snowfall rate. The snowfall rate was 1-2” NWS Mission nesota record for per hour Wednesday night and early Thurs- Statement daily May snowfall of day morning. This bus found the going rather 15.4”. Dodge Center difficult on May 2, 2013. also set the two-day “It’s pretty simple, really. Snow will accumu- “Provide weather, May snowfall record late if it falls at a faster rate than it melts.” hydrologic and climate forecasts and warnings The NWS La Crosse targets 20 hours of lead time …for the protection of for winter storm warnings. While advisories were life and property and issued 24 hours prior to the heavy snow accumula- enhancement of the tion, confidence only grew high enough to issue a national economy. warning around 3 pm Wednesday afternoon. This NWS products and provided about 12-15 hours of lead time before data form a national dangerous conditions presented themselves Thurs- day morning. Difficult forecasts like this will often information database have shorter warning lead times. In this event, and infrastructure thousands lost power as the heavy snow brought which can be used by down tree limbs and entire trees. Stranded vehicles, others in the global for those who ventured out, were common as well. community.” Numerous snowfall records were set across the area on May 2, 2014. Heavy snowfall in NWS La Crosse May is very rare, but for Minnesota with 17.4”. Osage, Iowa, east of not unprecedented Mission Statement Mason City, recorded 13“ of snow over May 2- for the area. In 1947, 3, setting a new May record for Iowa as well. 7 to 10" of snow fell “WFO La Crosse sup- on May 28-29 across ports the NWS mission Forecasting a late spring, record snowfall is very northeast Iowa, and through continuous difficult. Increasing intensity of the sun’s incoming into southwest and improvement in the energy during May, road temperatures in the 40s central Wisconsin. provision of high quality and 50s, and warmer air temperatures all run con- The heaviest snowfall trary to the forecaster’s idea that deeply accumu- was 10" in Gays forecast, warning, and lating snow could fall at that time of year. Mills, Wisconsin. Snowfall totals from one of the decision support The weight of the latest recorded spring heavy information for the To some extent, computer model forecasts can heavy snow caused snowfall events in the area: May safety and overall help with these scenarios, but they also have trou- severe damage to 28-29, 1947. benefit of the citizens ble simulating these complex interactions and don’t trees, bushes, and we serve.” typically provide forecasts of record snow. Our power and phone science keeps coming back to one big key to accu- lines. mulating snow when conditions seem too warm: