WILL THE SOUTHSOUTH DECIDEDECIDE THETHE SENATE?SENATE? SouthernerCan a Ever Win the White House Again?

Departments a note from publisher 4

6

PUBLISHED BY INSIDERADVANTAGE.COM, INC. 27 INTERNET NEWS AGENCY, LLC

P.O. BOX 724787 ATLANTA, GEORGIA 31139 404 • 233 • 3710 Features READ DAILY UPDATES AT WWW.SOUTHERNPOLITICALREPORT.COM

PUBLISHER/EDITOR-IN-CHIEF MATT TOWERY 14 PUBLISHER EMERITUS HASTINGS WYMAN

CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER LOUIE HUNTER EDITOR/CO-PUBLISHER Columns PHIL KENT

CO-EDITOR/STAFF WRITER Southern GOP Governors GARY REESE Don’t Have it So Easy COO/STAFF WRITER LOUIE HUNTER by Hastings Wyman 8

CIRCULATION DIRECTOR/STAFF WRITER PATRICK HICKEY Southerner STAFF WRITER Can a LOUIS MAYEUX Ever Win the White House Again? CONTRIBUTING WRITERS by Phil Kent 16 RONNIE ELLIS ERIC GARCIA GEOFFREY SKELLER Tech Industry Increasingly ELIZABETH WHARTON Looks to States for SALES & PRODUCTION Policy Solutions SCOTT BARD by Elizabeth Wharton 20 SALES DOLLE ECKERT TOWERY

DESIGN & LAYOUT STATE SENATE RACES BURTCH HUNTER DESIGN ARKANSAS 10 GEORGIA 13 SOUTHERN POLITICAL REPORT WEST VIRGINIA SOUTHERNPOLITICALREPORT.COM 19 KENTUCKY INSIDERADVANTAGE POLLING 22 LOUISIANA INSIDERADVANTAGE GEORGIA 23 INSIDERADVANTAGEGEORGIA.COM NORTH CAROLINA 25 INTERNET NEWS AGENCY VIRGINIA 26 INTERNETNEWSAGENCY.COM a note from publisher

The genesis of this new Southern magazine

n late 1999 InsiderAdvantage was incorporated and region filled with a dynamic African-American population, began as an idea to be a cutting-edge, web-based a growing and complex range of Hispanic-Latino commu- source of news about politics and government. By nities, as well as a growing population reflective more of early 2000 the Internet bubble was well underway and the the “melting pots” of the great cities of the Northeast. The company shifted gears. It purchased political newsletters once dominant “White southerner” is being replaced in such as Bill Shipp’s Georgia and the Washington-based large measure with residents from other states who have Hastings Wyman’s Southern Political Report. As the jour- chosen to populate the region. ney continued we bought assets from a longstanding Today four of the nation’s ten largest Metropolitan research company and established our polling division. Areas, as defined by the federal government, are in the That led to creating several state-oriented political maga- South: Dallas, Houston, Miami, and Atlanta. Tampa-St. zines, most notably Georgia-based James. Petersburg and Charlotte are not far behind. Cities that, As we reach our 15th anniversary we are taking a step just 50 years ago, were small regional powers are now larg- that we planned to take before the Great Recession. We are er than once-powerful locations to their north and west. launching The Southern Political Report magazine, a quar- This year is the perfect one to launch our newest prod- terly journal about politics, government, business and life uct. With control of the U.S. Senate hanging in the balance, in the South. contests in the South will play a critical role in determining It marks a bold move for us in reaching out to the lead- if Democrats hold on to their control or Republicans take ership community of 13 states: Arkansas, Texas, Louisiana, over both houses of Congress. As of our date of publication, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, that issue remains very much up in the air. North Carolina, Kentucky, Virginia and, for added measure, Then there is the presidency—two years away from Oklahoma (which was part of Hastings Wyman’s original this election cycle. In this issue, veteran journalist Phil Kent Southern Political Report). Also included is West Virginia, examines the question of whether a Southerner can ever which we consider part of our region as well. And we also be elected president again. That’s ironic given that, since add Washington, D.C., because, as President John F. 1976, three of our six presidents hail from states that make Kennedy once noted, “It has all the charm of the North and up our Southern Political Report. all the efficiency of the South!” But this is not a publication of “grits and gravy” versus There is no lack of online and print sites devoted to pol- the world. The South is now a constantly changing and itics, government, and virtually every aspect of life in gener- certainly growing region. As a result, if you enjoy our print al. But the so-called “South” remains an enigma to many in magazine we invite you to visit our daily updated Southern America, as it does many lifelong natives of the region. Like Political Report at www.southernpoliticalreport.com. our college football, our politics is viewed by much of the Finally, a special thanks to the man who in 1978 started United States as unusual and, often, unusually tough. Yet what we affectionately call “SPR” and thus created the sec- once one understands the wide array of demographics the ond-longest running, continuously published Washington- region offers, along with the unique flavor they all provide, based political newsletter—Hastings Wyman. He is truly a one can understand that politics and government in the “gentleman and a scholar” in every sense on the word. South truly requires fulltime attention to fully understand and appreciate the unique characteristics they possess. Matt Towery founded InsiderAdvantage with Pierre Howard in 1999. Towery is a national- The South truly is no longer lost in some romanticized ly syndicated columnist (Creators Syndicate), author, pollster, attorney and former member of haze from a Civil War now long forgotten. It is, instead a the Georgia House of Representatives. He lives in Atlanta and St. Petersburg, Florida.

SPR southernpoliticalreport.com Making Connections One Relationship At A Time. With more than 20 years of delivering results for clients across the Southeast, HBS has the experience and relationships to help you bridge through any number of legal and business issues. Our full-service and diversified offering brings the depth of resources found at many larger firms, together with a high level of personal attention and competitive fees. With HBS as your partner, the gap ahead just became easier to cross. Why did Travis County, Texas, District Attorney A feature of soap operas is that they never Rosemary Lehmberg decide to make a fool of her- seem to end. True enough with the tawdry saga self for so long? First she was arrested for DUI and of Republican Congressman Mark Sanford of was belligerent during the arrest. Then she refused South Carolina. Recall that as governor in 2009 to resign under pressure from Gov. Rick Perry. Now Sanford announced he was hiking the her office in liberal Austin has produced an indict- Appalachian Trail when in fact the married father ment against Perry for two things: vetoing the dis- was cavorting with his mistress in Argentina. trict attorney’s state appropriation, and for giving Fast-forward to the fall of this year, when Sanford his opinion about it. (Really!) But the loud secret is was not only ordered by a judge to enter media- the real reason Lehmberg refused to resign in the tion with his ex-wife, the former first lady of first place: The Travis County district attorney’s South Carolina, he also chose his Facebook page office includes a special unit that investigates state to inform the same mistress that their engage- officials—most of them Republican. Had Lehmberg ment is off. Who could make this up? Losing resigned as DA, the governor could have appointed a fellow Republican and neutralized one of the plum The United States already narrowly escaped an Democratic gigs in Texas. Losing outbreak of the Ebola virus—in 1989. That’s when Army researchers diagnosed the deadly disease in Florida is host to the only medical marijuana African monkeys in a research distribution center ballot initiative in the nation in 2014. Polls cast in Reston, Virginia. The monkeys were about to doubt that the measure will win the necessary 60 be sent to labs all over America when the virus was percent of the vote, but keep an eye on this one. discovered. Miraculously, no humans were infect- Some look at Florida as a sort of ‘California of the ed. That time government did its job! Winning South’—a political bellwether for what may one day happen in other states across the region. in play It’s a first for the largest education award ever presented to public school systems nationwide. What government voted to support a Jewish Jurors awarding the prestigious $1 million Broad homeland in Israel 11 years before the U.S. govern- Prize split the money between two urban districts: ment did? The answer is Alabama, in 1937. In that The Gwinnett County, Georgia, system in metro tradition, the contemporary Alabama Israel Task Atlanta and the Orange County school system in Force is working on emergency disaster relief and Orlando, Florida, will each get $500,000 in college preparedness in response to the fighting in Gaza. scholarships for their high school seniors. The prize Alabama also in recent years has provided human- rewards districts for improving achievement itarian relief and bomb shelters for Israel. Looks like among disadvantaged students. Winning there’s plenty of heart—and initiative—in the “Heart of Dixie.” Winning Are party nominees really damaged by nasty primary races? We’re about to find out in Mississippi. Longtime incumbent GOP Sen. Thad Cochran for much of the general election campaign

SPR southernpoliticalreport.com has enjoyed a double-digit lead in the polls over recent study reveal that Mississippi has the Democrat Travis Childers. But Cochran’s tea party fourth-highest rate in America, and is near the bot- primary opponent Chris McDaniel refused to drop tom among states for tax fairness? Say it ain’t so, a lawsuit challenging Cochran’s victory over him. Magnolia State. Losing Some McDaniel supporters were already nursing a grievance over what was probably the most vicious When Charlie Crist ran for Florida governor as a high-profile primary campaign in America this Republican in 2006, he called himself a “Jeb Bush year. How many of them will stay home in Republican” and praised Ronald Reagan. Now he’s November? in play running for governor again, this time as a Democrat, and declares that, golly, in his heart he’s been a The bad news is that the Islamicist terrorist Democrat and praises Barack Obama. Huh? in play group ISIS is likely recruiting and even training within U.S. borders. The good news is that The Texas Democratic gubernatorial nominee Fusion Intelligence Center in Charleston, West Wendy Davis was a media wunderkind in 2013 after Virginia, is tracking their activities. A center she staged a theatrical 11-hour filibuster for abor- spokesman says there are active ISIS members tion rights in the state Senate. Liberals and their close enough to West Virginia “to be concerned.” media allies anointed her as the beauty who would We are. Good work, Fusion. Winning slay the Rick Perry beast. Alas, Davis appears head- ed for a sizeable defeat in November. The lesson? The South has a reputation for having lower Media still has only a bark when it comes to elec- overall tax rates than other regions. So why did a toral politics. Voters furnish the bite. Losing

Trusted. Committed. Local. We excel in all we do. Together.

We know what it means to deliver more. Our 75-year history of transformational innovation started humbly in a backyard garage— much like the ones in communities throughout the South. Since then, we’ve become a global organization known for forward-thinking technology services and solutions that bring more to our clients, partners and employees. hp.com/gov/transformation

©2014 Hewlett-Packard Development Company, L.P. Southern GOP Governors Don’t Have it So Easy

by Hastings Wyman

here is a duality in Southern politics this election year. On some flak for not supporting the construction of tornado shelters Tthe one hand, seven of Dixie’s eight Republican U.S. sena- in public schools. Her Democrat opponent, state Rep. Joe tors are sailing to re-election with ease (perhaps the excep- Dorman, is opposed to Common Core and supports public tion being Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky). school storm shelters. Polls show her leading Dorman significant- On the other hand, four of the six Southern Republican governors ly, but again she’s under 50 percent, with average of recent sur- are in the midst of competitive, if not tough, re-election battles. veys giving her a 47 percent to 36 percent lead. Fallin, however, “If you are a governor, you have to wade in on all sorts of state has mega-bucks in her war chest, has shaken up her campaign issues,” says Professor Charles Bullock at the University of staff, and is improving in the Oklahoma polls. Dorman, more- Georgia. “If you are a senator, you can stay away from what’s hap- over, is seriously underfunded, although he has aired TV spots. pening in your state. As a senator,” he continues, “there is collec- In South Carolina, GOP Gov. Nikki Haley has been controver- tive responsibility: ‘You know, I worked on it, but you know how sial from the get-go, with enthusiastic support from half the voters those other senators are.’ If you are a governor, and major opposition from the other half, it either happens or it doesn’t. Most people including some Republican lawmakers. She’s assume their governor has control over what facing a re-run with Democrat state Sen. gets done in the state, but sometimes that may Vincent Sheheen, whom she bested 51 percent not be the case.” to 47 percent four years ago. She’s ahead, but Although Govs. Robert Bentley (R-AL) and by an average of 53 percent to 38 percent, a Bill Haslam (R-TN) have only token opposi- good lead, but not as solid as an incumbent tion, that’s not the case with four other GOP might want. Education is a major issue. The governors in Dixie. Govs. Bobby Jindal & Nikki Haley state’s high jobless rate hurt her for a while, but In Florida, GOP Gov. Rick Scott is facing a now the state’s economy has improved sub- major challenge from former Gov. Charlie Crist, stantially which is helping her. a Republican-turned-Democrat. The polls have see-sawed back and So the contrast with the re-election prospects of Republican forth, with the RealClearPolitics average in early fall showing Scott U.S. senators is stark. ahead by 43 percent to 41 percent, very weak for an incumbent, and While some Southern GOP senators faced Tea Party challenges Crist ahead a point or two in more recent polls. in their primaries, only McConnell has serious Democratic opposi- The economy continues to improve under Scott, with the tion in Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. In jobless rate declining nearly a full percentage point over the past Alabama, Jeff Sessions is a safe bet. In Mississippi, Thad Cochran is year. But Scott, a former healthcare company CEO, is catching a heavy favorite over former congressman Travis Childers. In some flak for supporting the expansion of Medicaid under the Oklahoma, Sen. Jim Inhofe is solid; so is Jim Lankford, running for Affordable Care Act, aka “Obamacare,” then being unable to get the remainder of Tom Coburn’s term. In South Carolina, there are his Republican legislature to authorize it. “That’s hurting some also two Republican Senate nominees on the ballot. Both Lindsey voters,” says Professor Susan MacManus at the University of Graham, running for a full term, and Tim Scott, for the remaining South Florida. She adds, “People know more about what’s going two years of his term, have token Democratic opposition. In on at the state level. Things are closer to them, things more Tennessee, Lamar Alexander is a lead-pipe cinch this fall. And in important to average people … Some of the governors have been Texas, John Cornyn is another prohibitive favorite. there when things are really bad. Voters remember.” “Senators usually have an easier time of it getting re-elected in In Georgia, at the same time GOP Gov. Nathan Deal contin- the South in general,” says Professor Keith Gaddie at the University ues to have ethics questions in the spotlight, he’s facing a famous of Oklahoma. “We southerners like our seniority, and senators are name in Peach State politics: Democrat state Sen. Jason Carter, in a position to vote ideology on the one hand, but then bring grandson of former governor and president Jimmy Carter. A late home the bacon with the other. Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma, who is summer poll, taken by SPR’s parent company, InsiderAdvantage, cruising to re-election, is a good example. And,” continues Gaddie, showed Deal with a 43 percent to 39 percent lead, and the aver- “many of the national political issues … fit nicely into the quiver of age of recent polls in early fall showed Deal leading by 44 percent incumbent GOP senators. They actually do confront the Democrats to 41 percent, again weak for an incumbent. and Obama and liberalism every day, and can make legitimate Oklahoma was supposed to be a slam-dunk for GOP Gov. claims to trying to slow the progress of the left.” Mary Fallin. But she has hee’d then hawed over Common Core “Governors meanwhile,” continues Gaddie, “get responsibil- educational standards—first endorsing them, then in the face of ity for their government and also their state economy.” fierce opposition to them, switched positions. She’s also caught Hastings Wyman is founding editor of the Southern Political Report

SPR southernpoliticalreport.com TRAVEL+ Southern Resorts Listed in the 2014 LEISURE TOP RESORTS IN THE CONTINENTAL U.S.

Florida led this year’s coveted list with five resorts in the magazine’s top 50. North Carolina was second with three. South Carolina and Georgia both boasted two, while Tennessee and West Virginia both made the list with one resort apiece. Here, in order, are the Southern resorts that made the prestigious Top 50 list.

 Lodge at Sea Island Golf Club •Georgia  The Cloister at Sea Island •Georgia  Inn at Palmetto Bluff • Bluffton, South Carolina  Blackberry Farm • Walland, Tennessee  The Greenbrier • White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia  Old Edwards Inn & Spa • Highlands, North Carolina  The Sanctuary at Kiawah Island • South Carolina  Hammock Beach Resort • Palm Coast, Florida  Pinehurst Resort • Pinehurst, North Carolina  Ritz-Carlton • Amelia Island, Florida  Lodge & Club at Ponte Vedra Beach • Florida  Inn on Biltmore Estate • Ashville, North Carolina  LePlaya Beach & Beach Resort • Naples, Florida  Renaissance Vinoy Resort & Golf Club • St. Petersburg, Florida ARKANSAS

Cotton Pryor Closer Than it Should Be? by Louie Hunter

epublican challenger Rep. Pipeline, and opposed Obama’s gun or help to decide majority control of Tom Cotton leads Democratic control efforts, and also many business the Senate: incumbent U.S. Sen. Mark regulations. First, all elections boil down to RPryor in most polls of the Arkansas He did vote for the original voter turnout. In Arkansas perhaps Senate race. And yet many among the Obamacare legislation, although he more than in some states, the state’s GOP brain trust are uneasy—or has equivocated since then. Democrats reportedly believe they should be. Importantly, he has praised—yes, have a significant advantage over the Consider how the pins seem to be praised—the Affordable Healthcare GOP. According to Atlantic magazine, lined up for Cotton and the Act in a campaign TV ad, and does so the Democrats have been in the field Republicans to win in November: with a slice of autobiography: Pryor for months, setting up 40 campaign Mitt Romney won more than 60 was diagnosed with a rare form of offices that seek to replicate the percent of the vote here in the 2012 cancer in 1996, and the new ad links Democrats’ advantage in technology presidential election. And according to the benefits of Obamacare to that and in targeting voters during one poll, President Obama’s approval episode in his life. Obama’s reelection campaign. The rating among independent voters in And Pryor has an Arkansas politi- Republicans also believe their own Arkansas is 13 percent. cal pedigree. His father David was both field operations have improved, Blanche Lincoln, the last governor and U.S. senator from the although speculation has it that the Democratic incumbent U.S. senator state, so son Mark has name recogni- Democrats are still ahead in ground- from Arkansas, lost her 2010 reelection tion beyond his current office-holding. game politics in the state. bid by more than 20 points. When first elected to the Senate in Second, in addition to Libertarian Republicans took majority control 2002, he was the only Democrat in the candidate Nathan LaFrance, there is of the state legislature in 2012. nation to beat an incumbent also Green Party candidate Mark African Americans make up only Republican senator. In his 2008 reelec- Swaney in the race. At least one poll about 12 percent of the Arkansas elec- tion he was unopposed by Republicans. has the two men combined drawing torate. Some Southern states have Cotton is running partly on his own as much as 7 percent support between more than double that percentage. impressive biography, which includes them. This percentage may decrease Cotton’s congressional district is combat missions in both Iraq and before Election Day, but in a close race one that Democrats would seem to Afghanistan, a Bronze Star, and service their impact could decide the race. need to perform exceptionally well in as a clerk in a federal Court of Appeals. There is no runoff in Arkansas. A plu- for Pryor to get reelected. He graduated from Harvard Law School. rality of votes takes all. Yet for all that, as we go to print, Beyond that, he is feverishly try- Finally, there is illegal immigration. Cotton’s consensus lead in the polls is ing to link Pryor to Obama in as many Arkansas borders Texas, and there are just 3 percent. That’s roughly the mar- ways as he can. reports that perhaps thousands of ille- gin of error for most polls. What gives? Pryor especially has waged a risky gal Central Americans have been com- The main thing is that Pryor has campaign. In addition to his refusal to ing into Arkansas. This situation not been a wholly conventional completely disavow Obamacare, he should help Cotton with voters, and Democratic senator, nor is he running has taken a swipe at Cotton for playing even more so if President Obama an entirely conventional campaign as up his military service for political gain, (backed by all Senate Democrats) compared to Democratic senatorial and now even has a TV ad that links keeps promising to act unilaterally in candidates in other Southern states. one of Cotton’s U.S. House votes to the granting de facto amnesty and work He’s been rated one of the most potential spread of the Ebola virus! permits to millions of illegal aliens. independent senators in Congress. For Here are three keys to this tight Call Cotton a slight favorite. example, he voted for the Keystone race, which potentially could decide Louie Hunter is chief operating officer of Southern Political Report

SPR southernpoliticalreport.com

Snobbiestin the South Cities 10 LARGEST SOURCE: MOVOTO TELEVISION MARKETS IN THE SOUTH EDITOR’S NOTE The real estate company Movoto caused quite a stir recently, SOURCE Neilson Top Local Markets • Sept 2014 taking statistics and determining the nation’s “snobbiest” cities. Rank in National San Fran topped the list, and outside of D.C. only Atlanta made the South City Ranking the top ten list nationally. An honor or a putdown? Here are the leading snobby cities from our SPR region from 1 DALLAS 5 the expanded list. 2 ATLANTA 9 1. ATLANTA 3 HOUSTON 10 2. NEW ORLEANS 4 TAMPA-ST. PETE (SARASOTA) 13 3. RALEIGH 5 MIAMI-FT. LAUDERDALE 16 4. AUSTIN ORLANDO-DAYTONA BEACH 5. ORLANDO 6 MELBOURNE 18 6. MIAMI CHARLOTTE 7 24 7. TAMPA 8 RALEIGH-DURHAM (FAYETTEVILLE) 25 8. VIRGINIA BEACH 9 NASHVILLE 29 9. CHARLOTTE 10 SAN ANTONIO 33 10. DURHAM

* Washington D.C. Ranks Number 8 in the Nation

WWW.SRGGA.COM • [email protected] 404.267.1496 FAX 770.445.2710

223 MAIN STREET • DALLAS • GEORGIA • 30132

WAYNE GARNER CHARLIE WATTS GEORGIA

Nunn Perdue Not Purple Yet by Gary Reese

n Georgia Democrat Michelle she might not vote for Harry Reid for cies enriched himself while leaving Nunn, the daughter of respected Senate majority leader if she is elected. workers without jobs. Because neither former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn, Perdue is the former CEO of Dollar candidate has held elective office, nei- isI taking on Republican businessman General and Reebok, and the first ther has a political record their oppo- David Perdue in the race to replace cousin of former Georgia Republican nent can attack. retiring GOP Sen. Saxby Chambliss. Gov. Sonny Perdue. He parlayed the Perdue has counter-attacked with Democratic strategists and spending of his own money and adver- TV ads that feature his cousin the ex- fundraisers have been energized by a tising to pull a close victory over governor, and that stress Perdue’s mid- widely-publicized notion that demo- Congressman Jack Kingston in the dle Georgia roots in a farming commu- graphic changes are transforming GOP primary runoff. nity. He also seeks to shore up support Georgia from a “red” conservative state Perdue rallies around a typical in middle and south Georgia, where he to a “purple” moderate one that can Republican agenda: reducing the fared poorly in the GOP primary against elect Democrats statewide. But, national debt, repeal of Obamacare, a congressman from that region. according to October polls, that is securing the border and comprehen- Nunn is hoping to benefit from unlikely to happen. sive tax reform. But most of all he por- being on an unofficial political “ticket” While voter surveys of the Perdue- trays Nunn as another rubber-stamp of sorts, given that both she and Nunn race have yielded widely diver- supporter of Obama and Reid. Nunn’s Democratic gubernatorial nominee gent results, the RealClearPolitics tricky task has been to repudiate Jason Carter are Georgia political lega- polling average shows Perdue with much of the president’s agenda while cies. Carter is the grandson of former about a four-point lead going into still remaining attractive to Georgia’s President Jimmy Carter. Jason Carter October. That margin may widen as Democratic base, which includes at times has shown enough support in the Republican continues to tie the African Americans and many young polls to threaten the re-election of political millstone of Barack Obama and urban women. Republican Gov. Nathan Deal. Nunn is around Nunn’s neck. Her campaign has pitched for the hoping for a boost from a sort of coat- A Nunn campaign memo that was black vote largely by a furious effort to tail effect, although she and Carter are embarrassingly leaked to the media register hundreds of thousands of new not publicly marketing themselves as revealed the concern of a consultant: voters. Yet this is causing a headache a ticket. But Michelle Nunn has a Nunn is “too liberal” for Georgia. She for Nunn: Georgia’s secretary of state handicap that Carter doesn’t suffer responded by choosing a few issues alleges that a Democrat non-profit from: She is running for a seat in on which to distance herself from the group engaged in voter registration Washington and not in Atlanta. Her president. Some examples: She oppos- fraud. Whether this helps to sink her race is a “national’ one—and that con- es unilateral executive action on illegal campaign or boosts it by triggering stantly raises the issue of support for immigration, opposes major cuts to indignation in the black community Obama and Reid in a state where both military spending, and supports the remains to be seen. the White House and the Senate are Keystone pipeline. Nunn’s appeal to women was per- deeply unpopular. She has also made campaign sonified in the person of Michelle The Democrat’s best long-shot appearances with her father and Obama, who made a campaign stop— hope to win may be for Libertarian proudly referenced her career work as something her husband the president Party Senate nominee Amanda former CEO of Points of Light, a volun- has been loath to do in this red state. Swafford to garner enough votes to teer organization associated with for- Nunn’s campaign has also portrayed force a January runoff, thus giving mer Republican President George H.W. Perdue as a sort of Southern Mitt Nunn another chance to face Perdue. Bush (although Bush has pointedly Romney—an out-of-touch capitalist Gary Reese is associate editor of Southern Political Report endorsed Perdue.) Nunn also said that whose scorched-earth business poli-

southernpoliticalreport.com by The InsiderAdvantage Research Team

hey love to poke fun at us. National media and Anyone can qualify either as a Republican, Democrat, “polling gurus” consistently jab at independent Libertarian—you name it. There are no “nominees.” So research firms based, heavens forbid, outside of the small percentages for lesser known candidates gath- Washington D.C. or New York. As firms such as ered by any given public opinion firm could impact our own InsiderAdvantage started utilizing IVR (automat- whether the poll nails a winner or misses a runoff ed) systems in the last decade, the magnifying glasses between the top two candidates. came out and the snarky comments flew. Then came Then there is the issue of race. Political pundits in D.C. “experts” who ranked pollsters for their “accuracy,” much and New York love to talk about the politics of race. And like the power rankings that football fanatics flock to on pollsters who deal with surveys of the entire nation have sports websites. less concern over missing Election Day African-American Lists rating pollsters from these online gurus generally turnout by a few points. But when it comes to pollsters were lower for Southern-based organizations, but those measuring a big race in many of the Southern states, with even a hint of a Republican past were knocked to the underestimating or overstating black voter turnout can bottom. In 2014 one site devoted to examining all things have a serious impact on a poll’s result. related to polling exhorted one network affiliate to quit Let’s use our own firm as an example. In 2008, polling for using Landmark Communications, an Atlanta-based firm, Politico, our last poll released on October 22 showed Barack for alleged sins against the polling gods. Obama leading by one point in Florida. The final result of the But in reality, if getting the “winner of a race” matters, election was a three point victory for Obama. So in that or even if providing a general sense of momentum counts, instance our InsiderAdvantage survey for Politico indicated Southern-based pollsters often fare better than their coun- the winner and was within the survey’s margin of error. terparts in our region of the nation. Of course that state- But 2012 was a different matter. In that presidential con- ment is based on one big “if”—that being “if” the larger test our final poll conducted for the Florida Times-Union major news organizations and their “nationally recognized” showed Mitt Romney leading Obama by five percent. The firms are even willing to poll a contest at all. In the South final result was an Obama victory by right at one percent. So that is a sporadic occurrence at best, particularly in we missed the race outside of our own margin of error. heated partisan primaries. We were not alone. The Southeast’s largest news- Regardless of who polls a race, survey- paper by circulation, the Tampa Bay Times, ing Southern states can be much trickier joined forces with the venerable Miami than in other areas of the nation. Why? Herald and produced a poll showing It’s partially because of some very Romney up by six points. One Southern- whacky election laws. That includes based pollster, PPP based out of North states with “open” primaries, where Carolina (identified as Democrat-lean- voters don’t register by party and ing, but in our opinion, a very trust- any voter can vote in any primary worthy organization that calls races as they choose. Then there are even cra- it sees them) showed Obama up by zier rules such as Louisiana’s unusual one percent and nailed the race. “jungle primary” that takes place when So why were we on track in Florida other states hold their general elections. in 2008 but off in 2012? Basically it was the

SPR voter turnout model we used in the two races. Our realities of the modern cell phone. Most who use 2008 “weighting” of raw numbers was based on them are ‘on the move’ and have little an elevated turnout of the youngest of voters patience for the old-style 50 question sur- (age 18-29) and African-American voters. vey. What person have you known who Consequently, we delivered to readers a poll would stop and answer 50 questions on a showing Obama leading John McCain and cell phone? Probably a pretty unusual within the margin of error. person is the answer.” But in 2012 our weighting was flawed Towery suggests that hand-held in that it was based on a decrease in voter devices are the best mix with landlines participation among young voters and a but “understanding they must be brief reduced African-American turnout versus surveys and are more likely to be 2008 levels. That delivered to our readers a poll answered as an online poll, answered on a that suggested a Romney win, and that was off handheld cell phone.” In the end he believes beyond its margin of error. We weren’t alone. Our “the online survey will eclipse the telephone poll friend Brad Coker at Mason-Dixon, a longtime and respect- altogether. It may take 10 years but the idea that someone ed name in Southern research, was almost forced to “walk will answer a long survey while talking on a mobile the plank” over his numbers showing Romney carrying the device will become a joke.” Sunshine State in 2012. Equally fine pollsters at organiza- As for the South, the political terrain makes polling tions such as CNN, Rasmussen, and SurveyUSA failed to extremely difficult. Eight of the 10 states with the largest catch the Obama victory in their final Florida surveys as African-American populations are in the region. Florida well. We all had company walking that plank! and Arkansas follow closely behind at eleventh and twelfth Many a major newspaper has been stuck with huge most populous (as to African-American population). And of pre-election polling stories based on numbers that turned the 10 states with the largest growth in their Hispanic- out to be wrong. Ironically this has proved to be particular- Latino population, all 10 are in the South. “Between trying ly true when the poll relied upon the once “gold standard” to determine the impact of various voter registration efforts of live interviews. Live interviews may well be more accu- and the likelihood of turnout for the various demographics, rate on any given day, but often take many days to com- particularly by race, Southern states are filled with polling plete. Breaking news stories or new campaign ads that mine fields,” says Towery. impact a campaign may occur halfway in the middle of the “The good news is that most of us who poll in this “live” survey. That has led some news organizations stuck region know one another,” Towery adds. “I have immense with polls that, by the time they went to print, were way respect for Brad Coker of Mason Dixon, John Garst of off and with no time to correct the situation. Rosetta Stone, Mark Rountree at Landmark, and Tom InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery is philosophical Jensen at PPP who had a great year in 2012. Same goes for about it all. “The pundits love to cling to the notion that the folks at SurveyUSA and other longtime names like only big research firms that cost a fortune can get things Scott Rasmussen and John Zogby. We generally don’t pick right. In reality the smaller more independent firms are far on each other because we know we are the few who are more active and, in some years such as 2008, they catch a brave enough to do this for public consumption. trend that traditional polls might miss. In other years the “And the academic community has done well, particu- approach might be better. The blunt reality is that, at least larly Quinnipiac and Suffolk,” he adds. on the national level, online surveys proved more accurate Towery has less praise for what he calls “professional in the presidential contest than any of the telephone based partisan pollsters.” He says “some are really good, but many polls, and that left many out of the game.” are just part of a D.C. buddy system where they sometimes Towery, who has handed off much of InsiderAdvantage’s overcharge and underperform, all without much scrutiny.” research operations to his son, Matthew Towery, Jr. and his As for 2014, the man who started InsiderAdvantage OpinionSavvy group, believes and its research unit bluntly says, “It is anyone’s technology will soon leave guess. There seems to be a develop- most pollsters scrambling. “The ing theory that the African- cell phone has been the obses- American vote in many states might sion of the ‘polling experts,’ equal or exceed the high percentage believing that in particular, that we have seen in recent presi- younger voters have been dential contests. And we are all sort lost in the more traditional of putting that into our weighting phone polls that reached this time. If it’s true, then you will only homes with landlines.” see Democrats performing well in He continues: “They close contests. If we are wrong, you were and are right in one might see a ‘reverse Romney’ effect sense. Landlines are dying in the results. You really never know quickly. But they miss the until the votes come in.”

15 Can a

Southerner by Phil Kent Ever Win the White House Again? Scenarios Whereby a Southerner Can Win the Presidency

an a Southerner win the White House again? The A BILL CLINTON CAMPAIGN MODEL answer is yes! CWill that candidate be a Democrat or Republican? To The 1990s political strategy of charismatic Southerner answer that question you must consider this one: What will Bill Clinton remains a model for a future Democrat presiden- the United States political map—particularly the Electoral tial run (perhaps his wife Hillary?). For the first two years of College, which actually elects presidents—look like in, say, his presidential term, he pursued a dogmatic liberal course. 20 years? But after his party’s stinging mid-term congressional defeat Let’s address that last question by peering into the in 1994—“the Republican Revolution” guided by Georgian demographic crystal ball to get a sense of the future. Newt Gingrich—Clinton steered a more centrist course and Consider this quote from the U.S. Census Bureau: “Under the worked with Republicans in Congress to address pressing assumption of a high level of net international immigration, problems. This helped draw centrist voters for his 1996 re- the population is expected to grow to 458 million by 2050.” election. However, at key junctures, he still adroitly threw Two-thirds of that growth will come from Third World immi- bones to the party’s core base and especially to black leaders. gration. Unless this trend is reversed under the next presi- A Southern Democrat could follow that “center-left” dent—and it has been accelerated under President Barack campaign path, perhaps made easier with the changing Obama—the Bureau estimates whites will be a minority by demographics. However, there is a cautionary note. around the year 2040. Our country is projected to grow from Democrat presidential candidates are going to have to grap- 310 million people today to over 400 million by 2039, with ple with the Obama policy failures that damaged the econo- much of that growth in states of the old Confederacy. my and led to record unemployment. This obviously means the country’s political dynamic The current president has polarized America. An will be changing. Both political parties and their potential August Wall Street Journal/NBC/Marist poll found an incred- Southern presidential candidates must adapt to evolving ible 70 percent of respondents felt the country was heading voting patterns as well as embrace new voter-targeting “in the wrong direction.” The Obamacare law will remain technology. unpopular as insurance premiums rise and when healthcare The 2012 Obama re-election victory was accomplished rationing begins (which especially hits the senior citizen by impressive get-out-the-vote targeting of liberal whites voting bloc). True, another hard-left candidate could make a and minorities in key Electoral College states. Helping successful White House run in 2016 or 2020 (depending, of Obama, along with a compliant mainstream media, was his course, upon the performance of the GOP candidate). But campaign’s effective use of social media. any candidate will have to break with, or pledge to fix, Author Andy Kessler notes the greatest effect of social unpopular Obama policies. A Southern candidate—while a networking, especially Facebook and Twitter, took place domestic liberal—could pivot by becoming more robust on behind the scenes in 2012. “Social networks, like real life, are anti-terrorism and foreign policy issues. This could attract driven by influences—not necessarily those with the most white voters by the millions who have abandoned the party. friends or followers, but by those whose thoughts, ideas and (Identifying with policies more in sync with Israel would be opinions have the biggest impact,” he says. Kessler points a good example, and could bring back Jewish supporters out that to “seed” opinion makers, Twitter is the ultimate that Obama alienated.) platform. Ideas grow into stories on blogs and eventually into the mainstream media. It is not the other way around. DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL SCENARIOS Southern presidential candidates of either party, take heed. Those with social media influence are most likely to A future Southern Democrat presidential contender help campaigns convert interest into votes. Kessler notes could “go maverick” and break from the overspending and that finding them is expensive but “harnessing fast servers overregulation that characterized the Obama years. There and constantly upgraded algorithms to find them on social are still leaders, especially some governors, within the party networks is already happening—and it will definitely say who understand too much government intrusion in the mar- who becomes our next president.” ketplace means fewer jobs and less take-home pay for the average American. But they would have to battle far-leftists SPR like U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren who rail against private enterprise and, egged on by radical environmentalists, war against the energy industry. The late Alabama Gov. George Wallace, when running for president, promised to “throw the briefcases of the bureaucrats into the Potomac River.” Democrats and inde- pendents of all backgrounds disgusted by unresponsive government and its overreach into their personal lives and pocketbooks would still respond to such a populist message against “bureaucracy” in the future,” albeit delivered by a center-left Southerner. There’s another scenario. A Southern Democrat—with an eye toward the shifting demographics—could plot a White House path highlighted by demagoguery. He or she could promise to spend billions of dollars more on programs to sup- posedly help minorities. Of course, if polls indicate enough taxpayers realize the nation is on the verge of bankruptcy at the time of those promises, such pitches won’t be as effec- tive. So if that were the case, envision yet another scenario. JEB BUSH Let’s say the economy and employment improves, espe- cially if a business-friendly Republican wins the presidency in 2016. Imagine that during the next 10 years a sizeable ket growth, less government regulation and more individual bloc of new immigrant voters gradually shifted from low responsibility. The emphasis on securing the border and bol- wage jobs into a stable, middle class status. That could stering homeland security does not turn off the majority of move a significant number to be more politically centrist or Hispanic and African-Americans who, polls indicate, believe even conservative as they assimilate into American life. A in playing by the rules when it comes to immigration issues. Southern Democrat presidential candidate, therefore, could A Southern Republican presidential candidate in 2016 move away from playing to demands and excuses based on and beyond must, first and foremost, make a compelling racial division and a desire of “victims” to get even. That case that he or she will work toward effective governance would be a stark contrast to the campaign of a hard-left pri- that will boost the economic well-being of everyone. mary opponent who plays on those divisions—especially if Conservative icon Ronald Reagan often engaged in congres- “playing the race card” turns off centrist middle- to upper- sional bipartisan compromises to advance policy solutions. middle class voters concerned by increased racial violence So, too, should a future Republican president. and the coddling of criminals. Voters of all stripes know the pressing problems that Forging a true “rainbow” voter coalition where whites impact their everyday lives, especially those that affect their don’t feel excluded could win the White House for a pocketbooks. They desire that the country move forward, as Southern Democrat whose campaign team understands indicated by widespread voter dissatisfaction with “grid- voter targeting technology. If Alison Lundergan Grimes lock.” The economic outlook for millions of Americans, espe- should win Kentucky’s U.S. Senate race over GOP Senate cially low-wage earners, is not going to improve unless a new leader Mitch McConnell, or if Jason Carter were to upset president and Congress work together in 2017 and beyond to Gov. Nathan Deal in Georgia, this true “rainbow” model foster business-friendly policies, more private sector job cre- would be one to consider if one or both of these “young ation and a reduction of the crushing $17 trillion dollar debt. Turks” opted for a future presidential run. A 2016 Southern GOP presidential hopeful must remind vot- ers of this—and remind them again and again! THE REBUBLICAN FUTURE EXPANDING THE GOP VOTER BASE Like their Democrat counterparts, Southern GOP presi- dential contenders must monitor changing demographics and Republicans must understand that they can’t expand be ready to employ the latest get-out-the-vote technology. their voter base by simply harping on bad Democrat policies Furthermore, a viable vice presidential candidate from a key of bygone years. For example, a GOP consensus should form Electoral College state in the North would have to be selected around a healthcare reform policy which appeals to the aver- to help ensure a general election victory for the Southerner. age voter regardless of their politics. By 2040 there will still be a loosely-labeled “liberal” Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky is one example of a presiden- Democrat Party and a “center-right” Republican Party. Rigid tial contender who seeks to broaden GOP appeal by advanc- campaign finance laws that protect the two main parties will ing populist/libertarian proposals that are received favorably hinder any other party to be true national contender. The in Democrat/independent precincts. And, who knows, an as- national GOP, however, cannot afford to have Texas, Georgia yet-unknown Republican “outsider” promising economic and other so-far reliable Electoral College vote states turn recovery could capture the party’s nomination and then the Democrat in statewide elections in coming years. presidency. The millennials (ages 18 to 33) are the first gen- Republican outreach to Hispanics must be fostered, but eration since World War II who are more poorer and jobless without surrendering core principles like fostering free mar- than their parents at the same stage of life, according to the

southernpoliticalreport.com tender’s pro-military, pro-homeland security platform. After all, terrorists hitting the American homeland don’t discrimi- nate between Democrats and Republicans when it comes to killing Americans. In this context, Democratic presidential candidates perceived as weak on confronting terrorism or who have advocated defense cuts will be extremely vulner- able to a hawkish Republican opponent. Texas Gov. Rick Perry, despite missteps during his unsuccessful 2012 GOP presidential primary campaign, is reinventing himself and gaining new adherents by empha- sizing that border security translates into homeland securi- ty for everyone. Other GOP contenders will also make national security a priority (along with a “law-and-order” platform if more cities experience racial turmoil). The failure of a Democrat president and Senate to immediately send RAND PAUL arms and aid to assist Arab allies in decimating the terrorist ISIS army in Iraq and Syria can also be cited as contributing to an increased terror threat to every American. Pew Research Center. In 2012 Mitt Romney captured a Finally, a Southern GOP candidate must be prepared in majority of those white voters who entered the electorate. It countering the left-wing tactic of dividing the electorate into will be welcomed news for the GOP as that trend continues. blocs and inflaming racial, class and other tensions. It is noteworthy that several Republican governors are Obama’s governing so far to the left will continue to polarize demonstrating good governance ranging from tax relief and the country until he leaves office in 2017. The best way to job creation to education reform. Parental choice in educa- counter is for that Southern Republican candidate to stick to tion, when championed by Republican candidates, is the main talking point: GOP governance can best restore a receiving growing support from black and Hispanic voters. healthy economy even if voters have disagreements with That is a light that shines the way forward for a Southern the candidate’s positions on some other issues. Perhaps a Republican on the road to the White House, as Louisiana recent Wall Street Journal editorial best sums this up: Gov. Bobby Jindal and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush partic- “America’s largest problems don’t have an ethnicity or gen- ularly remind audiences. der, and most of them could be ameliorated with faster eco- As threats or murderous attacks continue against our nomic growth that would benefit everyone.” homeland from Islamic terrorists, many voters regardless of Phil Kent is co-publisher and editor of Southern Political Report and a former editor of race could embrace a Southern GOP presidential con- The Augusta, Georgia, Chronicle.

Influencing PolicyPolicy Before It Influences YYoYouou

influence

Providing strategic advice at all levels of government, our Georgia government relations team Brad Alexander 404.443.5811 uses an extensive network of contacts and a unique depth and breadth of subject-matter [email protected] experience to assist clients in government affairs, national/multistate strategies, grassroots Promenade II mobilization and strategic communications. 1230 Peachtree Street, N.E. Suite 2100 TTeeam members includinclude Brad Alexander, Brian Loobyy,, Rob Fortson, Ashley Groome, Atlanta, GA 30309-3534 Misty Holcomb, Sen. Eric Johnson, Andrew Long, Victor Moldovan and Michael Shelnutt.

75 Consultants | 11 Offices | www.mcguirewoodsconsulting.com WEST VIRGINIA

Tennant Capito Coal-fired Politics by Gary Reese

onsider two facts from the coal is great campaign slogan materi- rhetorical sledgehammer. 2012 presidential election in al—even for the Democrats.) Shelley’s best shot at a monumen- West Virginia: The second key voting demograph- tal upset in November probably rests • The state had two Democratic U.S. ic—largely an unspoken one—is the on three hopes: Csenators. comparative scarcity of African First, that the Democrats’ vaunted • Republican Mitt Romney won all 55 Americans in West Virginia. (About 3.5 ability to turn out surprising numbers counties. percent of the population.) So Democrat of voters in other states can be replicat- This startling paradox can be Tennant can risk fiercely attacking ed this fall in West Virginia. This year’s explained with one word: coal. President Obama without alienating a state Democratic primary drew 300,000 It would be interesting to see how core voting constituency of blacks. more voters than did the GOP primary. West Virginia political colossus Sen. That’s a comparative luxury that Second, that Capito commits a Jay Rockefeller (D) would fare were he Democratic candidates in many other major gaffe in the televised senatorial running for reelection this year. But Southern swing states can’t afford. debate Oct. 7. This is unlikely, given he’s retiring after 30 years in the Not that Tennant’s high-wire act that she has more experience than Senate, and Democratic Secretary of is going to help her much. It’s true Tennant in the debate spotlight from State Natalie Tennant seeks to replace that some analysts and pundits her previous campaigning for Congress. him. Her opponent is U.S. Rep. Shelley believe she has run as strong a cam- And third, that the Libertarian and Moore Capito, the Republican nomi- paign as possible, given the political Mountain Party candidates will syphon nee. Capito is the daughter of former millstones around her neck. She has off enough votes from Capito to make a governor Arch Moore. Polls—not attacked Moore as a friend to “Wall difference. Given the distance in the always wholly reliable in West Street” fat cats, and lauded her own polls that Tennant has to make up Virginia—show Capito leading by as role in cutting government spending before Election Day, this is of course much as double digits. as secretary of state, and in cutting unlikely. But if especially Libertarian This is doubly remarkable when regulations for small businesses. candidate John Buckley is allowed to it’s considered that no Republican has She’s also adopted other positions participate in the televised debate— come close to winning a West Virginia not traditional for Democrats, includ- this hasn’t been decided—it might Senate seat since the GOP nominee’s ing her opposition to expanded back- possibly throw a monkey wrench into four-point loss to Rockefeller in 1984. ground checks for the purchase of the works: Buckley is openly gay in But this year it’s all about the coal. guns, and a stand against the this, a state in which roughly half the Another paradox illustrates Obamacare employee mandate. population is evangelical Christian. Tennant’s guerilla campaign strategy: But Tennant stumbled in an It’s not hard to imagine some vot- She is running TV ads that openly embarrassing public incident in which ers who would customarily vote either attack President Obama for his real she couldn’t offer a persuasive defense Republican or Democrat to vote for and perceived ‘war on coal.’ This of the Obama presidency in general. (young voters) or against (evangelicals) seemingly counterintuitive tack is a And her substantial deficit in the polls Buckley because of the politics of matter of voting demographics. seems to be keeping out-of-state PACs homosexuality and homosexual rights. First, the coal fields of southwest- from spending the kind of money it Of these three factors, an unex- ern West Virginia traditionally have would likely take to potentially lure pectedly large turnout of Democrats in been solidly Democratic. But this large numbers of unsympathetic vot- November is likely Tennant’s best region-to-party alliance has been shat- ers into her column. Most of this PAC chance. tered by the open antipathy of the money is flowing to other states, Meanwhile, Capito’s strategy is Environmental Protection Agency and where races are closer. straightforward: Attack the status quo. the White House for the coal industry. Capito and the state’s three And the status quo is the threat from (How draconian Obama’s war on coal Republican congressional candidates Washington to the West Virginia coal is depends on whom you ask. Such benefitted from a campaign and industry. Just ask Mitt Romney. distinctions are all but irrelevant in fundraising visit from Mitt Romney. He Gary Reese is associate editor of Southern Political Report this Senate race, however. The war on hit the “coal-hating” Democrats with a Tech Industry Increasingly Looks to States for Policy Solutions Elizabeth Wharton

Politics and the tech world do not move at the same noting it spent $54,000 in North Carolina. Between February- pace. Innovation can’t always afford to wait for parti- April 2014 it spent $16,000 on various efforts in Maryland. san logjams and roadblocks in Washington, DC to clear. In While the amounts represent only a small portion of Google’s technology, innovation and solutions are key. So inaction on published lobbyist efforts, the expenditures underline Capitol Hill has increasingly turned the policy and lobbying expanding recognition of state legislatures’ roles. focus towards individual states for solu- Patent litigation reform was seen as an tions—and the South is in the forefront. issue with bipartisan support and was The tech industry has recognized the expected to pass the 113th Congress with value of policy education, in addition to little opposition. Yet after passing the House advocacy, moving beyond campaign dona- by a wide margin, the “Innovation Act” tions to creating active public policy organ- stalled in the Senate. The legislation would izations. have addressed concerns when “patent Apple, Google, Microsoft, and Facebook trolls” use patents and litigation as spent a combined estimated $61million lobbying Washington weapons. Patent trolls make frivolous patent infringement in 2013 according to Consumer Watchdog’s review of public allegations, threatening costly litigation that could delay or disclosures. The Center for Responsive Politics estimates that otherwise lead to product recalls unless the businesses con- Google spent $9.3 million on Washington lobbying efforts this cedes to license fees or other demands that are not met. Yet year through July 31. Yet few, if any, of the industry’s policy while Washington was unable to enact any patent reform leg- priorities such as patent reforms and priva- islation, various Southern states forged cy have made it into legislation that has ahead to pass anti-patent troll legislation come up for a vote. The sole, key technolo- this year. (They are Georgia, Alabama, gy legislation passed to date—the cellphone Louisiana, Maryland, Tennessee, Virginia, unlocking bill “Unlocking Consumer Choice and Oklahoma.) and Wireless Competition Act” signed by It should therefore come as no surprise the president on August 1—merely ensured that Google, the recipient of 43 frivolous that a prior exemption did not expire in “Patent Troll” lawsuits in 2013 according to 2015. Fortune magazine, increased its state-level Approval and rules for commercial use of “drones” campaign contributions and registered lobbyists for the first (unmanned aircraft systems), touted by small businesses, time in 2013. (This news comes courtesy of the Georgia farmers, and Amazon alike, remains stalled under the Federal Government Transparency and Finance Commission.) Aviation Administration’s review. The bipartisan “Wi-Fi Contributions and spending, though, Innovation Act,” which would direct the can only go so far. Facebook CEO Mark Federal Communications Commission to Zuckerberg coordinated a group of industry determine whether the 5 Ghz spectrum leaders to form “FWD.us” to promote tech band can be shared and safely opened for industry policies. Even the bitcoin industry new technologies such as connected vehi- has created a political action committee to cles, has yet to move forward. address legislative concerns. Georgia-based Therefore, instead of solely looking to Policy Bytes (of which the author is a co- the nation’s capital, the tech industry is founder) has been created as a nonprofit to turning to individual state legislatures to provide solutions. engage the public and bring tech industry policy issues into Google, for example, has expanded its state-level presence as public awareness. These groups are part of the new trend, it pushes driverless cars, protects google glass, and prepares bringing together the tech industry’s vast resources to use to roll out its google fiber. In June, Politico reviewed Google’s the states as a catalyst for change. state level spending during 2013 and the first half of 2014, Elizabeth Wharton is an attorney for Hall Booth Smith, PC in Atlanta

SPR southernpoliticalreport.com

KENTUCKY

McConnell Grimes It’s All About Mitch by Ronnie Ellis

entucky Republican U.S. Republican primary challenger this Kentucky, gave him a 4-point lead Senator Mitch McConnell is year. Matt Bevin managed 35 percent although it indicates his approval agonizingly close to his life- of the vote and many Bevin backers numbers remain under water. Klong political dream job. said after a bruising primary they’d But McConnell has kept Grimes McConnell, 73, is Senate Minority stay home in November. But polling on defense over Obama, coal and Leader but believes the GOP will gain indicates many are coming home. some campaign missteps. Polls show control of the chamber this fall, mak- They aren’t the only disaffected Grimes with big leads in urban areas ing him Majority Leader—if he can Republicans. Some resent McConnell’s around Louisville and Lexington, but win a sixth term. habit of trying to choose statewide Kentucky is mostly rural and But he’s the top target of national and federal candidates for them while McConnell has double-digit leads in Democrats who recruited first-term others think he’s not sufficiently con- eastern and western Kentucky, both Democratic Kentucky Secretary of servative. Democrats revile him. More one-time Democratic strongholds. State Alison Lundergan Grimes, 35, to Kentucky voters view McConnell unfa- More respondents have favorable challenge “the guardian of gridlock.” vorably than approve of his perform- impressions of Grimes than disapprove Kentucky Democrats also would ance by a wide margin. of her, but the poll indicates still more love to “Ditch Mitch,” the man who Nevertheless, he appears likely to don’t really know her. Grimes con- turned Kentucky from a Democratic win. Kentucky has trended Republican served her cash during McConnell’s monopoly into a two-party state. for years in federal elections. President primary battle when she might have Kentucky’s eight-member federal dele- Barack Obama is deeply unpopular in a been on the air introducing herself to gation now includes just one Democrat. state which is largely white and where voters. Now McConnell can define her, Grimes, an attorney, grew up in coal is king. The coal industry is hurting said Danny Briscoe a former Kentucky politics. Her father, Jerry Lundergan, is and many Kentuckians blame Obama. Democratic Party Chairman. a two-time Kentucky Democratic Party McConnell says Grimes is a “fresh “People have made up their minds Chairman and friend to Bill Clinton face for the status quo,” turning the about McConnell and they either think who has twice campaigned here for argument that he’s been in he’s stayed too long or he’s more inter- Grimes and will likely be back. Washington too long on its head. He ested in Washington than in them,” Grimes calls herself a “strong calls Grimes just another vote for said Briscoe. “She’s giving them more Kentucky woman,” a conservative, Democratic Majority Leader Harry reasons not to like McConnell when economic populist in the mold of Reid “who says coal makes us sick.” they already don’t like him. She hasn’t Democrats who once ruled the state, According to McConnell, Obama liber- given them a reason to like her while fighting for “Kentucky’s working fami- als recruited her and are financing her he’s giving voters reasons to dislike lies.” She says “30 years is enough” for campaign. He calls them “these people her because of Obama.” McConnell who “is more interested in who are against our way of life” and Grimes has enough money to keeping his job than in yours.” She says the best way to change the coun- remain competitive and Democrats claims he’s enriched himself during try’s direction is to make him the remain energized. McConnell’s lead in those 30 years while voting against leader of a Republican Senate. His the polls remained within the margin increases in the minimum wage and campaign slogan is “Obama needs of error in late September, but he was legislation protecting women. Yet polls Grimes; Kentucky needs McConnell.” inching upward as this magazine show her with only a small advantage Grimes enjoyed small leads in suc- went to press. The trend favors among female voters. cessive polls this spring, but McConnell and so far Grimes hasn’t McConnell is notorious for McConnell has steadily narrowed the persuaded voters she’s a better choice scorched-earth campaign tactics. For gap. The most recent Bluegrass Poll, than a potential leader of the United the first time he had to attack a which has a reliable track record in States Senate from Kentucky.

Ronnie Ellis is a reporter and columnist for CNHI News. SPR LOUISIANA

Landrieu Cassidy Louisiana May Decide the U.S. Senate Majority . . . in December by Eric Garcia

t’s not a far-fetched notion that blow to the believed presidential aspi- bent Landrieu still holds a big advan- majority control of the U.S. Senate rations of Republican Gov. Bobby tage in total fundraising for this elec- will be decided not on Nov. 4 but Jindal if Landrieu is again reelected. tion cycle, roughly $14 million to Ion Dec. 6. The second date is the one There is speculation that Jindal has Cassidy’s $8.6 million. These totals will of the likely election runoff in the not officially endorsed Cassidy over swell as national Super PACs increas- Louisiana Senate race. Maness because Cassidy is supported ingly invade the state. Many analysts Louisiana will have an open pri- by GOP Sen. David Vitter, whose feud believe this will be the costliest Senate mary in November, and three-term with Jindal is no secret. race in Louisiana history. incumbent Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu counters Cassidy’s nar- Indeed, the race is like a finely- Landrieu is facing not one, but two rative with the message that her spun web: The tiniest vibration Republicans, plus a Libertarian. U.S. office’s renowned constituent services shakes up the whole thing. The race Rep. Bill Cassidy, a Baton Rouge and her clout as a Senate veteran is that close. physician, is the GOP candidate who trump partisan considerations. She is One of the latest vibrations is the could actually win the seat. But self- chair of the Senate Energy and accusation that Landrieu has been proclaimed Tea Party Republican Rob Natural Resources Committee. using taxpayer funds to pay for cam- Maness, a retired Air Force colonel, It may be a measurement of paign expenses. She hasn’t denied it, right now is drawing enough support Obama’s unpopularity that, until this but instead has initiated an internal to prevent either Landrieu or Cassidy year, Landrieu had increased her mar- investigation by her own Senate office. from winning outright in November. gin of victory in each try at getting These accusations may seem pal- Most of the polls that show a statisti- elected or re-elected senator. try in a state whose voters have tradi- cal tie between Landrieu and Cassidy Landrieu also touts the benefits tionally tolerated no small amount of are surveys of that potential runoff. she has brought to the state, including corruption in their elected officials. But One can only imagine the out-of- flood insurance reform, more oil- again, the race is so close that every state money that will pour into the drilling revenue to Louisiana and her strike against a candidate could be state if a runoff happens. role in keeping open an army base potentially fatal. Cassidy has all but declared that that been threatened with closure. She There’s been other squabbling the race is a national one. He main- advocates the building of the Keystone over issues that would seem to have tains that ousting Landrieu would Pipeline, which has significant sym- little impact in all but the closest elec- mean firing Harry Reid as Senate bolic importance here. tions, including potential economic majority leader. And, of course, he It probably helps her, too, that the sanctions against Venezuela, which says Landrieu has been and would be Landrieu name is a political legacy in sells oil to Louisiana refineries; and the a rubber stamp for Barack Obama. The Louisiana. Her father is a former con- effort by some congressional president is deeply unpopular here, gressman and mayor of New Orleans. Republicans to close an obscure feder- not only because of Obamacare and Her brother Mitch Landrieu is now al banking agency. other national issues, but also because mayor there. The obvious key to the race is he is widely seen as being hostile to The biggest new development in Maness, the “second Republican.” If the energy industry, vital to the race is Cassidy’s rising prowess in he and the Libertarian force a Louisiana’s economy. fundraising. He outraised Landrieu December runoff, there could be a Even more depends on the out- during a summer reporting period by national war in Louisiana. come of this race: It might prove a $629,000 to $576,000, although incum- Eric Garcia is a Washington, D.C.,-based journalist

southernpoliticalreport.com Solutions for Business & Government

(PWFSONFOU
3FMBUJPOT

1SPDVSFNFOU

Ta x Polic y

$POTVMUJOH

GEORGIA Bank of America Plaza | 600 Peachtree Street, NE | Suite 5200 Contacts Atlanta, GA 30308-2216 Pete Robinson, Chairman Tel: 404.879.6500 | Toll Free: 888.879.6578 | Fax: 404.962.6919 Rob Willis, Principal Atlanta r Raleigh r
3JDINPOE
r
8BTIJOHUPO
%$



XXXUSPVUNBOTBOEFSTTUSBUFHJFTDPN NORTH CAROLINA

Hagan Tillis Voters Voting “Nationally” by Eric Garcia

ontrol of the Senate might cal science at Wake Forest University, selves saying anti-public schools and come down to who comes out said elections across the board have anti-teacher and it’s hard to scrape,” victorious in North Carolina’s taken a national focus, even for state Pearce said. Crace. But, the victor may be deter- legislative races. Outside money groups on both the mined by whether voters are more dis- “Certainly on the Senate level, the left and right have inundated the state satisfied with the government in expectation is which is the most trying to influence the election. In the Washington or Raleigh. dominant cue, it’s national level,” 2013-2014 cycle, more than $17 million “It may be a referendum on who Dinan said. has been spent by independent is more unpopular,” said Gary Pearce, Frances de Luca, president of the expenditure groups alone in the state, a longtime Democratic consultant in conservative Civitas Institute, said more than almost any other state. the state. when the group polled whether people “I think that’s where Hagan got a Sen. Kay Hagan won her first race were voting based on state or national big edge because her allies did better in 2008 when Barack Obama became issues, more said they were voting on damaging Tillis than his allies did for the first Democrat to win the state national issues. her,” Pearce said. since Jimmy Carter. In fact, Hagan got “Quantitatively more people say But Steven Greene, professor of more votes than Obama. they are more likely to vote on national political science at North Carolina State But Obama is now a liability for issues,” de Luca said. “They are more University, said he did not think the Hagan in a midterm election, where motivated to vote.” outside money would play a large factor. traditional Democratic constituencies This was the case when in 2010 “It will basically cancel each other do not vote in the same numbers as and 2012, Republicans won the both out,” Greene said. “They are both presidential years. houses of the N.C. General Assembly going to spend millions and millions of Her opponent, N.C. House and the governorship for the first time dollars to make sure the other side Speaker Thom Tillis, has called Hagan since Reconstruction. doesn’t have a big advantage.” a rubber stamp for Obama, saying she With Tillis leading the state house, Despite the contentiousness, there has voted with the president 96 per- the GOP passed a number of initia- are some who feel underwhelmed with cent of the time on issues like spend- tives, including spending cuts, large the race. While Tillis is certainly con- ing and the Affordable Care Act. income tax cuts, turning down servative, his style is very polished Hagan has tried to separate herself Medicaid expansion under the and doesn’t excite the base like some from the unpopular administration by Affordable Care Act and cutting of his primary opponents. Similarly, describing herself as a moderate and unemployment benefits. Hagan’s moderate record makes it dif- criticizing Obama on issues ranging Hagan has particularly hit Tillis on ficult for liberals to rally behind her. like approving the Keystone Pipeline to education, saying the 2013-2014 budg- “There’s not a great depth of love the scandal at Veterans Affairs. et passed in the legislature cut half a for either of them,” De Luca said. In the past, North Carolina had a billion dollars in education. The overall lack of excitement divided political landscape. The same The attacks might be why last locally may be why the polls still years it would send Republicans to the session Tillis and the legislature show Hagan and Tillis regularly dead- White House and the Senate, it would passed a teacher pay increase. Tillis locked. It looks like the Senate race elect Democratic governors, and has called it the largest teacher pay with so much at stake could end not Democrats usually had at least partial increase in state history. with a bang but with a cynical whim- control of the legislature. “The problem is that the per of negativity.

But John Dinan, professor of politi- Republicans put a big tattoo on them- Eric Garcia is a Washington, D.C.,-based journalist

southernpoliticalreport.com VIRGINIA

Warner Gillispie GOP’s Gillespie Has Uphill Fight by Geoffrey Skeller

n 2008, Virginia proclaimed its potentially be vulnerable: While 56 per- ing to CQ Weekly’s vote rating. status as the new bellwether cent of voters said he deserved reelec- However, so far Gillespie hasn’t state of American politics. Not tion, only 50 percent said they would been able to cut into Warner’s support. Ionly did Virginia go Democratic in a vote for him when matched up against Two popular poll averages, HuffPost presidential election for the first time Ed Gillespie (R), who had just entered Pollster and RealClearPolitics, have since 1964, the Old Dominion’s presi- the race that month. shown little change over the last few dential result was closer to the nation- Gillespie, a former chair of the months; both have Warner up at least al outcome than any other state. Republican National Committee and 19 points. Just a year later, Virginia presaged counselor to President George W. The simplest explanation for the Democratic struggles in 2010 when Bob Bush, entered the race with much fan- race’s stagnation is that many voters McDonnell (R) won a landslide victory fare. Given his establishment creden- still view Warner as a centrist, com- in the state’s off-year gubernatorial con- tials, many viewed Gillespie as capa- promise-seeking politician, meaning test. And in 2012, Virginia’s presiden- ble of raising the kind of money and Gillespie’s attempts to make Warner tial result once again most closely mir- attracting the outside support neces- look like the president’s lackey haven’t rored the national result as President sary to give Warner a strong challenge. caught on. And outside groups have Obama narrowly won the state a sec- Although some analysts wondered if taken note of Gillespie’s inability to ond time, while Tim Kaine (D) won a Gillespie might have problems on his make inroads: Whereas the competi- roughly six-point victory over former right flank because of his “insider” tive race between Kaine and Allen led Sen. George Allen (R) in the state’s background and the Tea Party’s ascen- all 2012 Senate contests in independ- open-seat Senate contest. At the dency in the state party after factional ent expenditures, through early statewide level, there is little doubt that infighting during the 2013 gubernato- September the Warner-Gillespie race Virginia elections can be very competi- rial cycle, Gillespie won the nomina- was languishing in 18th among 2014 tive. But this hasn’t proven to be the tion comfortably at the Republican Senate contests. Unless Gillespie clos- case in the state’s 2014 Senate race. Party of Virginia’s June convention. es the gap, outside conservative Sen. Mark Warner (D) was first With that possible stumbling block groups and the National Republican elected in a landslide win in 2008, run- out of the way, Gillespie could focus Senatorial Committee aren’t going to ning more than 12 points ahead of on his very simple and understandable invest in Virginia. Obama. A former governor, Warner has strategy: Tie Warner to President Considering that through June a well-established moderate image; he Obama, who is relatively unpopular in Warner had $8.9 million cash on hand once called himself a “radical centrist.” the Old Dominion. A Sept. 10 poll from compared to Gillespie’s $3.1 million, While toeing the Democratic line on the Wason Center found the presi- the Republican nominee could use the many issues, Warner has been very dent’s approval/disapproval in Virginia outside assistance. At this point, active in exploring avenues to entitle- at 43 percent/52 percent, similar to the Gillespie’s hopes are tied to the presi- ment reform during his Senate tenure, country as a whole. dent’s approval rating. If it drops fur- particularly as a part of budgetary Many Democratic candidates this ther, it will impact Warner at least to compromise with Republicans. cycle are rightfully worried that the some degree, and if Gillespie can Despite his time in Washington, president’s low approval rating could solidify his base support, the race Warner remains popular. A January 23, drag them down in November. To help could get tighter. Even so, it’s difficult 2014, poll from Christopher Newport make that happen, Gillespie’s campaign to see the incumbent losing. University’s Wason Center pegged his has repeatedly stressed that the “radical Geoffrey Skeller is the associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball approval at 63 percent. Still, that sur- centrist” Warner has voted with Obama at the University of Virginia Center for Politics vey also suggested that Warner could 97 percent of the time, at least accord-

SPR southernpoliticalreport.com Boehner Webb Barrow

U.S. Rep. John Boehner will seek re-election as House speaker ment of the National Rifle Association. That support helped when the GOP House caucus votes after the November elec- Barrow win in 2012. Will it again? tion. However, a group of conservative Southerners are already tipping their hand against him. Texas Rep. Louie Gohmert was Can a centrist Democrat with hawkish foreign policy views win one of a dozen Republicans who didn’t support Boehner in a Democratic Party presidential primary? Former Virginia Sen. 2013, and says he won’t again. Ten of those 12 will be back in Jim Webb says he’s “seriously looking at the possibility.” He January, among them Rep. Walter Jones of North Carolina. He devoted most of a recent National Press Club speech hitting says he’ll vote against Boehner—but admits it’s “a suicide mis- President Obama’s lack of a clear foreign policy, especially in sion.” A spokesman for U.S. Rep.-elect Barry Loudermilk of the Mideast. Georgia says his boss will not support the speaker, and neither will Jody Hice who is cruising to election in a heavy-GOP U.S. Rep. Lacy Clay, D-Mo., represents Ferguson, site of unrest Georgia district. Rep. Ted Yoho of Florida, who voted against over the police shooting of a black teenager. Many in his party Boehner the last time, so far isn’t saying yes or no. are surprised that Clay is coordinating with U.S. Sen Rand Paul of Kentucky to support the Redeem Act aimed at getting U.S. Rep. John Barrow, D-Ga., is the last white Democrat rep- juveniles with criminal records back on track. (Paul is also resenting the deep South in Congress. He has been a GOP working with Democrats on five other bills.) Clay predicts Paul target for years and supporters of his Nov. 4 opponent, busi- could make surprising gains among blacks if he ever runs for nessman Rick Allen, believe that the incumbent’s luck is run- president. A Georgia member of the House Black Caucus, ning out. However, Barrow managed to snag the endorse- however, whispers to us “not so much.”