Gun Violence | Climate Conversation | Missiles and Saucers | Searching for Yowie

the Magazine for Science and Reason Vol. 40 No. 2 | March/April 2016

Published by the Center for Inquiry in association with the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry Ronald A. Lindsay, President Massimo Polidoro, Research Fellow     Bar ry Karr, Ex ec u tive Di rect or , Research Fellow Joe Nickell, Senior Research Fellow Richard Wiseman, Research Fellow www.csicop.org Fellows James E. Al cock*, psy chol o gist, York Univ., Tor on to David H. Gorski, cancer surgeon and re searcher at Barbara Astronomy and director of the Hopkins Mar cia An gell, MD, former ed i tor-in-chief, Ann Kar manos Cancer Institute and chief of breast surgery Observatory, Williams College New Eng land Jour nal of Med i cine section, Wayne State University School of Medicine. John Pau los, math e ma ti cian, Tem ple Univ. Kimball Atwood IV, MD, physician; author; Newton, MA Wendy M. Grossman, writer; founder and first editor, The Skeptic magazine (UK) Clifford A. Pickover, scientist, au thor, editor, IBM T.J. Watson Steph en Bar rett, MD, psy chi a trist; au thor; con sum er ad vo cate, Re search Center. Al len town, PA Sus an Haack, Coop er Sen ior Schol ar in Arts and Massimo Pigliucci, professor of philosophy, Willem Betz, MD, professor of medicine, Univ. of Brussels Sci en ces, professor of phi los o phy and professor of Law, Univ. of Mi ami City Univ. of New York–Lehman College Ir ving Bie der man, psy chol o gist, Univ. of South ern CA Harriet Hall*, MD, physician; investigator, Puyallup, WA Stev en Pink er, cog ni tive sci en tist, Harvard Univ. Sus an Black more, vis it ing lec tur er, Univ. of the West of David J. Helfand, professor of astronomy, Eng land, Bris tol Mas si mo Pol id oro, sci ence writer; au thor; ex ec u tive Columbia Univ. di rect or of CI CAP, It a ly Sandra Blakeslee, science writer; author; New York Times Terence M. Hines, prof. of psychology, Pace Univ., science correspondent Pleasantville, NY. James L. Powell, geochemist, author, professor; executive direc- Mark Boslough, physicist, Sandia National Laboratories, Doug las R. Hof stad ter, pro fes sor of hu man tor, National Physical Science Consortium; retired college and Albuquerque, NM un der stand ing and cog ni tive sci ence, In di ana Univ. museum president, Buellton, CA Hen ri Broch, phys i cist, Univ. of Nice, France Ger ald Hol ton, Mal linc krodt Pro fes sor of Phys ics and pro fes sor Anthony R. Pratkanis, professor of psychology, Univ. of CA, Jan Har old Brun vand, folk lor ist; pro fes sor emer i tus of his to ry of sci ence, Har vard Univ. Santa Cruz of Eng lish, Univ. of Utah Ray Hy man*, psy chol o gist, Univ. of Or e gon Donald R. Prothero, paleontologist/geologist, Natural History Mar io Bunge, phi los o pher, McGill Univ., Montreal Stuart D. Jordan, NASA astrophysicist emeritus; Museum of Los Angeles County, Los Angeles, CA Robert T. Carroll, emeritus professor of philosophy, science advisor to Center for Inquiry Office of Public Benjamin Radford, investigator; research fellow, Committee Sacramento City College; writer Policy, Washington, DC for Skeptical Inquiry Sean B. Carroll, molecular geneticist; vice president for science Barry Karr, executive director, Committee for education, Howard Hughes Medical Institute, Madison, WI Skeptical Inquiry, Amherst, New York James “The Amazing” Randi, magician; CSICOP founding Thomas R. Casten, energy expert; founder and chairman, Law rence M. Krauss, foundation professor, School member; founder, Educational Foundation Recycled Energy Development, Westmont, IL of Earth and Space Exploration and Physics Dept.; Mil ton Ro sen berg, psy chol o gist, Univ. of Chic a go John R. Cole, an thro pol o gist; ed i tor, Na tion al director, Origins Initiative, Arizona State Univ. Am ar deo Sar ma*, chairman, GWUP, Ger ma ny Cen ter for Sci ence Ed u ca tion Harry Kroto, professor of chemistry and K.C. Cole, science writer; author; professor, Univ. of Southern biochemistry, Florida State Univ.; Nobel laureate Richard Saunders, president, Australian Skeptics; educator; investigator; podcaster; Sydney, California’s Annenberg School of Journalism Ed win C. Krupp, as tron o mer; di rect or, John Cook, climate communication research fellow for Grif fith Ob ser va to ry, Los Angeles, CA Joe Schwarcz, director, McGill Office for Science and Society the Global Change Institute at the Univ. of , Law rence Kusche, sci ence writer Eu ge nie C. Scott*, phys i cal an thro pol o gist; chair, advisory Australia. Le on Le der man, emer i tus di rect or, Fer mi lab; council , Na tion al Cen ter for Sci ence Ed u ca tion Fred er ick Crews, lit er ary and cul tur al crit ic; pro fes sor emer i tus No bel lau re ate in phys ics of Eng lish, Univ. of CA, Berke ley Rob ert Sheaf fer, sci ence writer Stephan Lewandowsky, psychologist, School of Experimental Seth Shostak, senior astronomer, SETI Institute, Rich ard Dawk ins, zo ol o gist, Ox ford Univ. Psychology and Cabot Institute, Univ. of Bristol, UK Mountain View, CA Ge of frey Dean, tech ni cal ed i tor, Perth, Aus tral ia Scott O. Lil i en feld*, psy chol o gist, Emory Univ., Atlanta, GA Simon Singh, science writer; broadcaster; UK Cor nel is de Ja ger, pro fes sor of as tro phys ics, Univ. of Utrecht, Lin Zix in, former ed i tor, Sci ence and Tech nol o gy Dai ly (Chi na) Dick Smith, entrepreneur, publisher, aviator, adventurer, the Neth er lands Je re Lipps, Mu se um of Pa le on tol o gy, Univ. of CA, Berke ley Terrey Hills, N.S.W., Australia Dan i el C. Den nett, Aus tin B. Fletch er Pro fes sor of Phi los o phy Eliz a beth Loft us*, pro fes sor of psy chol o gy, Univ. of CA, Ir vine and di rect or of Cen ter for Cog ni tive Stud ies, Tufts Uni v. Keith E. Stanovich, cognitive psychologist; professor of Daniel Loxton, author, editor of Junior Skeptic at Skeptic maga- Ann Druyan, writer and producer; CEO, Cosmos Studios, zine (US), artist, Vancouver, B.C., Canada development and applied psychology, Uni v. of Ithaca, NY Da vid Marks, psy chol o gist, City Univ., Lon don Toronto Sanal Edamaruku, president, Indian Rationalist Mar io Men dez-Acos ta, jour nal ist and sci ence writer, Mex i co City Karen Stollznow*, linguist; skeptical investigator; writer; Association and Rationalist International podcaster Kenneth R. Miller, professor of biology, Brown Univ. Edzard Ernst, professor, Complementary Medicine, Peninsula Jill Cor nell Tar ter, as tron o mer, SE TI In sti tute, Moun tain View, CA Medical School, Universities of Exeter and Plymouth, Da vid Mor ri son, space sci en tist, NA SA Ames Re search Cen ter Exeter, UK Rich ard A. Mul ler, pro fes sor of phys ics, Univ. of CA, Berke ley Car ol Tav ris, psy chol o gist and au thor, Los Ange les, CA Ken neth Fed er, pro fes sor of an thro pol o gy, Joe Nick ell, sen ior re search fel low, CSI Da vid E. Thom as*, phys i cist and math e ma ti cian, Socorro, NM Cen tral Con nec ti cut State Univ. Jan Willem Nienhuys, mathematician, Waalre, Neil de Gras se Ty son, as tro phys i cist and di rect or, Krista Federspiel, science journalist, expert on complementary The Netherlands Hay den Plan e tar i um, New York City Lee Nis bet, phi los o pher, Med aille Col lege and alternative medicine, Vienna, Austria. Indre Viskontas, cognitive neuroscientist, tv and podcast host, Steven Novella*, MD, assistant professor Barbara Forrest, professor of philosophy, SE Louisiana Univ. and opera singer, San Francisco, CA An drew Fra knoi, as tron o mer, Foot hill Col lege, Los Al tos Hills, CA of neurology, Yale Univ. School of Medicine Stuart Vyse, psychologist, former Joanne Toor Cummings Kend rick Fra zi er*, sci ence writer; ed i tor, S    I   Bill Nye, sci ence ed u ca tor and tel e vi sion host, Nye Labs James E. Oberg, sci ence writer ’50 professor of psychology, Connecticut College; author Christopher C. French, professor, Department of Believing in Magic: The Psychology of Superstition, of Psychology, and head of the Anomalistic Psychology Irm gard Oe pen, pro fes sor of med i cine (re tired), Research Unit, Goldsmiths College, Univ. of London Mar burg, Ger ma ny Stonington, CT Julia Galef, host of the Rationally Speaking podcast; Paul Offit, professor of pediatrics, director of the Vaccine Educa- Ma ri lyn vos Sa vant, Pa rade mag a zine con trib ut ing ed i tor cofounder, Center for Applied Rationality, Berkeley, CA tion Center, the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia Stev en Wein berg, pro fes sor of phys ics and as tron o my, Univ. of Luigi Garlaschelli, chemist, Università di Pavia (Italy); Naomi Oreskes, geologist and professor, departments of the Tex as at Aus tin; No bel lau re ate History of Science and Earth and Planetary Sciences, research fellow of CICAP, the Italian skeptics group E.O. Wil son, Univ. pro fes sor emer i tus, organismic and evolu- Maryanne Garry, professor, School of Psychology, Victoria Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA tionary biology, Har vard Univ. Univ. of Wellington, New Zealand Lor en kratz, psy chol o gist, Or e gon Health Mur ray Gell-Mann, pro fes sor of phys ics, San ta Fe In sti tute; Sci en ces Univ. Rich ard Wis e man, psy chol o gist, Univ. of Hert ford shire, England No bel lau re ate Robert L. Park, professor of physics, Univ. of Maryland Benjamin Wolozin, professor, Department of Pharmacology, Thom as Gi lov ich, psy chol o gist, Cor nell Univ. Jay M. Pasachoff, Field Memorial Professor of Boston Univ. School of Medicine * Mem ber, CSI Ex ec u tive Coun cil (Af fil i a tions giv en for iden ti fi ca tion on ly.) The S    I   (ISSN 0194-6730) is pub lished Director, CSI, P.O. Box 703, Am herst, NY 14226-0703. Tel.: au thors. 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Box 703, Am herst, NY 14226-0703. Skep ti cal In quir er March/April 2016 | Vol. 40, No. 2

FEATURES COLUMNS 33 FROM THE EDITOR Specific Claims and Broad Concerns... 4 Biological Race and the Problem of Human Diversity NEWS AND COMMENT Is biological race a mere myth or a troublesome Creepy Clowns Stalk U.K. Children? Reality and Folklore / Hungarian Academy of Sci- fact better left unexplored? ences Proposes Homeopathic Drugs KENNETH W. KRAUSE Meet Tests of Efficacy / Halloween Candy Scare Hoaxes / Henry Gordon Book Col- lection to CFI / CSI Fellow Seth Shostak 40 Wins Carl Sagan Prize / ‘Sea Monster’ Skepticism and the Photographed in Greek Islands Never Was Alive / Edzard Ernst Receives 2015 John Nature of the Mind Maddox Prize ...... 5 A better understanding of the somewhat elusive nature of the mind can help the skeptical INVES TI GA TIVE FILES community comprehend popular beliefs. Searching for the Yowie, the Down Under DANIEL A. VOGEL JOE NICK ELL ...... 16

45 NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD The Mote in Thy Brother’s Eye In Search of Mary Magdalene People suer from an illusion of objectivity. MASSIMO POLIDORO ...... 19 THOMAS GILOVICH AND LEE ROSS VIBRATIONS Missiles and Saucers ROBERT SHEAFFER ...... 22 49 THE SCIENCE OF A Numerate Life SCIENCE COMMUNICATION e man who brought us Innumeracy conveys Shifting the Conversation about concerns and questions we should have about Climate Change biographies . . . or our own lives. MATTHEW NISBET ...... 24 JOHN ALLEN PAULOS BEHAVIOR & BELIEF Guns: Feeling Safe ≠ Being Safe STUART VYSE ...... 27 53 SKEPTICAL INQUIREE Does the Scientific Method Cyptozoology and Global Warming Have Biblical Origins? BENJAMIN RADFORD ...... 31 Two astounding claims from a Christian NEW AND NOTABLE ...... 61 ministry are evaluated. BRIAN BOLTON LET TERS TO THE ED I TOR ...... 64

THE LAST LAUGH ...... 66 SPECIAL REPORT 12 REVIEWS Another Really Bad Week for Clear Thinking About Cancer HARRIET HALL ...... 57 the Supplements Industry,

Including Criminal Charges This Book Won’t Cure Your Cancer by Gideon Burrows STEVEN SALZBERG A Celebrity’s Experience in Scientology FORUM WENDY M. GROSSMAN ...... 60 14 Troublemaker: Surviving Hollywood and Scientology Divine Providence or Divine by Leah Remini Malfeasance: A Skeptical The Physics of Martial Arts Inquiry PETER HUSTON ...... 62

NICHOLAS S. MOLINARI Fight Like a Physicist: Make Physics Your Advantage in the Ring and on the Street by Jason Thalken Committee for Skeptical Inquiry ™ “... promotes scientific inquiry, critical investigation, and the use Skep ti cal In quir er of reason in examining controversial and extraordinary claims.” THE MAG A ZINE FOR SCI ENCE AND REA SON EDI TOR Kend rick Fra zi er DEPUTY EDI TOR Ben ja min Rad ford MANA GING EDI TOR Julia Lavarnway [ FROM THE EDITOR ASSISTANT EDITOR Nicole Scott ART DIRECT OR Chri sto pher Fix PRODUC TION Paul E. Loynes Specific Claims and Broad Concerns WEBMASTER Matthew Licata PUBLISH ER’S REPRE SENT A TIVE Bar ry Karr

EDI TO RI AL BOARD James E. Al cock, Harriet Hall, very issue of the S I presents an eclectic mix of de- Ray Hy man, Scott O. Lilienfeld, Elizabeth Loftus, Joe Nickell, Steven Novella, Am ar deo Sar ma, Eugenie C. tailed investigations of specific claims or mysteries and scientific and Scott, Karen Stollznow, David E. Thomas, E scholarly examinations of broader problems and issues. The former ad- Leonard Tramiel CONSULT ING EDI TORS Sus an J. Black more, dresses our intense curiosities, the latter our concerns about issues that affect Ken neth L. Fed er, Barry Karr, E.C. Krupp, us all. With both, we try to provide the best possible scientific and scholarly Jay M. Pasachoff, Rich ard Wis e man evidence and the most knowledgeable and experienced critical insights and CONTRIB UT ING EDI TORS D.J. Grothe, Harriet Hall, Kenneth W. Krause, David Morrison, James E. Oberg, perspectives, all aimed to get as close as possible to the truth. Our goal is not Massimo Pigliucci, Rob ert Sheaf fer, David E. Thomas to tantalize but to explain, not to provoke but to understand. This issue of SI is no exception. Specific investigations include Joe Nic- Published in association with kell’s search for the Australian Yowie, Massimo Polidoro’s consideration Edward Tabash of Mary Magdalene, Robert Sheaffer’s report on the many recent UFO CHAIR CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER Robyn Blumner sightings due to aerial pyrotechnics by the world’s space programs, and Ben PRESIDENT Ronald A. Lindsay Radford’s wry consideration of how global warming might affect any possi- CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER Barry Karr ble cryptids living out there. And we report relevant news: Steven Salzberg’s CORPO RATE COUNSEL Brenton N. VerPloeg, Nicholas J. Little special report on long-needed legal actions against the supplements industry BUSINESS MANA GER Pa tri cia Beau champ and news of what a Greek “sea monster” seen by many really was (hint: it FISCAL OFFI CER Paul Pau lin was never alive). SUBSCRIPTION DATA MANAGER Jacalyn Mohr And then to broader issues of social concern. In the careful, science-based COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR Paul Fidalgo DIRECT OR OF LIBRAR IES Tim o thy S. Binga manner our readers have come to expect, our cover article considers a topic DEVELOPMENT DIRECTOR Martina Fern that can be emotionally charged: the science of race, specifically the question DIRECTOR, COUNCIL FOR SECULAR HUMANISM of whether race is a myth, as many scientists and scholars contend, or a real Tom Flynn DIRECTOR, CAMPUS AND COMMUNITY PROGRAMS but inconvenient truth. Or perhaps, as suggested, there is an in-between, Debbie Goddard scientifically informed view of variation within human populations that has DIRECTOR, AFRICAN AMERICANS FOR HUMANISM Debbie Goddard more scientific and pragmatic traction and that can better inform and en- BOARD OF DIRECTORS R. Elisabeth Cornwell, lighten us. In this important feature article, Kenneth W. Krause, our “Science Brian Engler, , Barry A. Kosmin, Edward Tabash (chair), Leonard Tramiel. Watch” columnist since 2010, brings analytical skills honed from his legal (Honorary): Rebecca Goldstein, Susan Jacoby, background to synthesize and evaluate a large amount of recent scientific Lawrence Krauss. research on the issue of biological race and human diversity. Gun Violence | Climate Conversation | Missiles and Saucers | Searching for Yowie In the first of a new column on “Behavior and Belief,” award-winning the Magazine for Science and Reason Vol. 40 No. 2 | March/April 2016 psychology professor Stuart Vyse tackles another hot-button issue, gun vio- lence, with what the science shows, in “Guns: Feeling Safe ≠ Being Safe.” And another new columnist, Matt Nisbet, associate professor of communication at Northeastern University and a longtime colleague of ours, offers better communications strategies for dealing with opposition to climate science. In their feature article “The Mote in Thy Brother’s Eye,” the distin- guished psychology professors Thomas Gilovich and Lee Ross illuminate the illusion of objectivity, a bias we all share in which we can all easily detect biased thinking in others while our own biases seem strangely inaccessible

to our own self-awareness. This is a profound effect, and they have demon- Published by the Center for Inquiry in association with the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry

strated it in a number of recent studies. The objectivity illusion is a prevalent Is biological race a mere myth or a troublesome fact aspect of human nature; it explains why it is so difficult for us to understand better left unexplored? Some might suggest that, properly conceived, race is neither fable nor farce how other people can be so wrong all the time. They may have the same but rather a potential windfall for both science and thought about you. And me. society. See page 33. —K F [ NEWS AND COMMENT

Creepy Clowns Stalk U.K. Children? Reality and Folklore

B R

Reports surfaced in England shortly sued an all-points bulletin asking offi- before Halloween 2015 of people cers to watch for a vehicle containing dressed as clowns stalking and trying to potential child abductors. The vehicle abduct—or at the very least scaring— was distinctive: an older-model van children. According to the October 16, with a broken headlight, no hubcaps, 2015, Daily Mirror: and ladders on the side. It was also full Pupils have been warned to “go of clowns. Several children reported straight home after school today that clowns had tried to lure them into and not to loiter” as reports continue the dark van with promises of candy; of schoolchildren being stalked by police investigated but found nothing. clowns. Kent Police have issued the Though some sensational stories of caution after a number of “suspi- cious incidents” in Tonbridge and child-abducting clowns were an inven- Tunbridge Wells, in Kent. . . . Since tion of the news media, a few children then, there have been reports of reported firsthand abduction attempts. people wearing clown masks being One boy told police that he had been spotted in a van on St. John’s Road confronted by a clown armed with an in Tunbridge Wells on Tuesday and Wednesday. Schools in the town Uzi machine gun in one hand and a issued their own advice after a boy machete in the other. The clown fired was approached by two men in a van off five shots, but the boy counterat- on Wednesday morning. Luckily he tacked the surprised clown by throwing ran away and told his school what his book bag at him. Deciding that an had happened. (see http://tinyurl. Uzi and a machete were no match for com/pzzzavh) a small bag of schoolbooks, the clown This is not the first time that clowns lost his nerve and ran off. Not surpris- have been reported terrorizing people. ingly, the boy later admitted that he Over the years, a handful of mysterious had made up the whole story, probably clowns have appeared in cities around Though some sensational for attention. the world with the apparent intent to stories of child-abducting Though the 1980s and 1990s were frighten and unnerve the public. It the heyday of phantom clown sight- happened almost exactly a year earlier clowns were an invention ings, a few reports have continued in in the California towns of Bakersfield of the news media, a few recent years. Throughout the phantom and Wasco, followed by a series of at- clown panic no hard evidence was ever tacks by clowns in several French cit- children reported firsthand found that the clowns even existed, and ies (see http://tinyurl.com/ovbvjgm). abduction attempts. no children were actually harmed or Before that, a weird clown was re- abducted. ported in Northampton, England, and The phantom clowns appeared in then Staten Island. And in July 2015, a connection with other rumors and creepy clown was sighted at night in a urban legends. As folklorists Gil- Chicago cemetery. determined to be hoaxes, pranks, and lian Bennett and Paul Smith wrote in When a clown treads on private publicity stunts, the recent reports from Urban Legends: A Collection of Interna- property, that’s potentially a trespass- Britain are a bit different, being dubbed tional Tall Tales and Terrors, the phan- ing crime that may result in authorities phantom clowns—“phantom” because tom clown panic was “caused by an being called—and the clown identified, they are reported but never caught. urban legend that circulated exclusively his or her motives determined, and Writer Loren Coleman coined the among children by word of mouth,” fu- possibly arrested. Clowns appearing in term phantom clowns and described eled in part by parental concern. public are another matter: there’s no them in his book Mysterious America. Folklorists Sandy Hobbs and David law against anyone in a costume walk- One of the first reports of phantom Cornwell examined the origins of the ing down the street or visiting a public clowns occurred on May 6, 1981, when phantom clowns in their chapter in the park. While most of these reports were police in Brookline, Massachusetts, is- book Supernatural Enemies, asking:

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 5

How did this rumor of evil clowns Hungarian Academy of Sciences originate? Many of our informants suggest possible origins of the Proposes Homeopathic Drugs clown story: parents, police, and Meet Tests of Efficacy the mass media are all cited. One student reports that older children told the stories to frighten younger G H ones. Others appear to assume that the story derives from an actual Members of the Section of Med- incident, even though it may have ical Sciences of the Hungarian become exaggerated in the telling. Academy of Sciences (HAS) voted Whether the recent British sight- unanimously on November 9, 2015, ings are hoaxes, pranks, or a genuine to support an earlier proposal of menace, parents and children can take the Royal Swedish Academy of comfort in the fact that the phantom Sciences about homeopathy. The clowns never actually succeeded in ab- Swedish statement requested that homeopathic remedies should go ducting any children (or anyone else). through the same efficacy trials For anyone genuinely trying to abduct that mainstream drugs do. children, a clown costume is perhaps The Hungarian statement refers to various recent scientific statements, the worst possible disguise because it for example, the study of the Australian Government’s National Health and Medical Research Council that analyzed 175 publications and con- For anyone genuinely cluded that there was no reasonable scientific proof for the efficacy of trying to abduct children, homeopathy for any health conditions. The HAS also refers to the Euro- pean Academies Science Advisory Council that is allegedly considering a clown costume is an investigation among the academies of the U.N. countries about this perhaps the worst topic. The statement points out that another Hungarian scientific body (Health Science Committee, Egészségügyi Tudományos Tanács) had possible disguise. made a similar statement in 1991 and opposed using and registering those drugs whose efficacy had not been proved and that had not gone through adequate research procedures. attracts attention—especially in light A 2010 statement of the Comple mentary Medicine Committee of the of the warnings and publicity sur- HAS correctly noted that while there is a legal and public demand in rounding the sightings. Any clowns conventional medicine to prove the efficacy and safety of its products seen near schools, parks, or children and procedures, “nonconventional” or alternative medicine is exempted that are not part of a private party, pa- from these obligations. Based on the recent legislation, complementary rade, or circus are certain to draw no- medicine is the same as evidence-free medicine, and this might mean a tice and attention. serious risk for the patients. Most scary clown sightings are in- József Mandl, a biochemist, member of HAS, and president of the nocuous, such as a person wearing a Health Science Committee, said: clown mask in public—perhaps not The Australian and Swedish statements had raised the interest of the surprising given that Halloween was Hungarian scientific community and now members of the Medical only a few weeks away. And of course Sciences Section of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences voted unan- just because a person is frightened by imously to join the Swedish initiative. . . . Science has well defined, a person in a clown mask doesn’t nec- rigorous methods and systems. Homeopathy can’t be fitted to these. Homeopathic remedies don’t meet the criteria of evidence-based med- essarily mean the clown had any evil icine. There might be various hypotheses and theories, but everything intent. But motivations become irrel- should be proved. This is what science means and this is what we would evant in parents’ eyes when it comes to like to highlight now. children’s safety, and many communi- ties were understandably taking mea- sures to ensure safety. Gábor Hraskó is chairman of the European Council of Skeptical Organiza- tions, president of the Hungarian Skeptics, and a Committee for Skepti- Benjamin Radford is deputy editor of cal Inquiry Scientific Consultant. the S  I and author of the forthcoming book Bad Clowns.

6 Volume 40 Issue 2 | [ NEWS AND COMMENT

Halloween Candy Scare Hoaxes B R

On Halloween weekend 2015, scary kept some of the tainted candy reports taken to the hospital and having to news reports and warnings on social from being solved; pranksters who undergo emergency surgery as a result media claimed that dangerous candy might otherwise consider coming for- of a foreign object accidentally being had been found, raising fears among ward to calm nerves in their household eaten. Instead it’s always a near-miss, parents and children. A week after or community may not have done so a case of “look what we found before Halloween—after the candy had been out of fear they would be arrested, and anyone was hurt.” eaten and the proverbial fairy dust had decided it’s better to let the case re- The tainted candy scares this past settled—the comforting truth about main unsolved. The nature of tainted Halloween—as in previous Hallow- the latest candy scare finally came to eens—have been the result of hoaxers light: Police determined that the inci- and copycats. Why would someone dents were hoaxes. fake such a horrible thing? For fun, For example, a Philly.com news attention, sympathy, or any number report stated that an eleven-year-old of other reasons. Kids and others get girl and a twelve-year-old boy “who the idea to pretend to find tainted reported finding needles in their trick- Halloween candy mostly from popu- or-treat candy in Kennett Square have lar culture and the news media. This admitted they made up the story. . . . is a process that folklorists call “os- The girl hid needles from her moth- tension.” Scary themes are especially er’s sewing kit in Twix bars she was common in ostension, for example given while trick-or-treating, prosecu- when ghost hunters seek out spirits in tors said. She then lied to her parents, a reputedly haunted location, or when who prosecutors said rightly reported girls perform the Bloody Mary ritual the incident to police. The boy heard to summon a witch from a mirror. about the first case, then put a needle Putting a needle in candy gives kids a inside a Snickers bar that he showed personal role in real-life legend-mak- his older sister, who contacted police” Kids and others get ing, a sinister form of “let’s pretend”— (see http://tinyurl.com/ojjd752). which is of course what costumed Kids do stupid things, but adults the idea to pretend to trick-or-treating is all about. are in on the fear-mongering as well. find tainted Halloween Police and the news media are in At least one person was arrested for a difficult position. Until the tainted faking tainted candy in New Jersey; candy mostly from candy reports are disproven, it seems according to the same story, “Glouces- popular culture and prudent to warn parents that apparent ter Township police said 37-year-old cases have happened. But the irony is Robert Ledrew reported that he found the news media. that the more people hear about these needles in four separate pieces of trick- (hoaxed) cases through the news and or-treating candy. Prior to calling po- social media, the more likely it is that lice, he posted photos of one of the someone will be inspired to do a copy- alleged needles on social media. But cat hoax for attention or sympathy. It investigators determined that Ledrew is very easy to fake finding some for- . . . made up the story and put the nee- Halloween candy is such that it’s a eign substance in candy; all you need dles in the candy bars himself, police very easy thing to fake and very diffi- are needles, thumbtacks, nails, or any said. He was charged with making a cult to investigate. other common household object that false report and released on a sum- There were no confirmed reports could be harmful if eaten. It takes mons, officials said.” Ledrew claimed of anyone actually being injured or mere seconds to put it in a piece of he had put the needles in the candy harmed by contaminated Halloween candy and then innocently ask some- to teach his kids a lesson about safety. candy from strangers; there seem to one nearby, “Hey, what is this?” News of Ledrew’s arrest may have be no news reports of children being The candy scare is part of the ven-

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 7 erable “stranger danger” theme com- Henry Gordon Book Collection to CFI mon in American culture, fueling fears that evil strangers are hoping T B to hurt innocent children. Few if any sinister foreign objects are ever The Center for Inquiry Libraries (www.cfili- found in Halloween candy. This braries.org) has received a small but significant threat is essentially an urban legend; collection of books on magic and conjuring there have been only two confirmed from Henry Gordon (1920–2009) and his cases of children being killed by poi- wife, Zita. Gordon was a stage magician, soned Halloween candy, and in both doing conjuring and magic he called “sleight cases the children were killed not in of mind.” He was a CSICOP (now CSI) fel- a random act by strangers but mur- low, writer, broadcaster, and president of the dered by one of their parents. Ontario Skeptics. Gordon began his career as a magician and paranormal skeptic in his hometown of Mon- treal, where he began writing for various ven- ues, such as Suburban, and later a weekly col- While the fact that umn for the Toronto Star. He became known not only for his magic but also for his skepti- children and adults cism and was a pioneer of the skeptical move- have been caught ment in Canada. Up until the founding of CSICOP in 1976, Gordon felt as if he were faking tainted candy is the only one doing this kind of work. troubling, the good news As he received more and more attention for his magic and skepticism, he appeared on is that the world is not many television and radio shows, beginning such a scary place. on CBC in Toronto, and eventually becoming a guest on such shows as Oprah and Sally Jessy Raphael. He had done many shows where he was introduced as a psychic and would later reveal himself as a skeptic. Gordon wrote several books. Extra sensory Deception (Prometheus Books, 1987) was Sociologists Joel Best and Gerald taken from his columns in the Toronto Star, Horiuchi researched news stories which ran for three years. It’s Magic (Prometheus Books, 1989) is a book of on Halloween sadists and found easy-to-learn magic tricks for children. Channeling into the New Age (Prome - the threat to be “greatly exagger- theus Books, 1988) is the result of a lot of material Gordon collected about ated.” They discovered the fear of Shirley MacLaine and “her side career of pushing the paranormal with a series razor blades in apples and poisoned of nonsensical books. . . .” He concedes in his chapter in Skeptical Odysseys (Pro- candy was fueled largely by the news metheus Books, 2001) that “I don’t believe Shirley is my biggest fan.” media. Best and Horiuchi concluded The collection numbers about 100 books; however, it has many of the classics that most reports of Halloween sa- of the small-object/hand-conjuring genre. Included are such notable books as (Continued on p.11) dism appear to be imaginary, and Expert at the Card Table by Erdinase, The Tarbell Course in Magic (which has that many are hoaxes by kids them- volume 6 signed by the author), and books by Milbourne Christopher, Alton selves seeking attention and sym- Sharpe, Jerry Mentzer, and Harry Lorayne. Some bound magic trick periodicals pathy. The myth-busting website were also donated; these include The Bat, The Sphinx, The Phoenix, and Hugard’s Snopes.com also updates its section Magic Monthly. on tainted candy every year. While “Henry was a strong believer in science and of maintaining an open and curious the fact that children and adults mind,” says his wife, Zita. “He never denied that a person could have paranormal have been caught faking tainted powers. What he did say is that people should be willing to allow scientific investiga- candy is troubling, the good news tion of claims under the kind of conditions any other phenomena would be examined. is that the world is not such a scary It is my hope that Henry’s magic book collection will assist those who seek a logical place, since strangers are not in fact and deeper understanding of what may initially be mistaken as the paranormal.” trying to harm or kill random inno- cent children. Timothy Binga is director of libraries for the Center for Inquiry.

8 Volume 40 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer [ NEWS AND COMMENT

CSI Fellow Seth Shostak Wins Edzard Ernst Receives 2015 Carl Sagan Prize John Maddox Prize The 2015 Carl Sagan Prize for Science Popularization has gone to astronomer and Committee for Skeptical Inquiry Fellow Seth Shostak. The $5,000 prize comes from Wonderfest, a nonprofit organiza- tion in the San Francisco Bay area dedicated to science education and popularization. The prize is funded Ernst, left, with his prize. by Google and presented specifi- cally to recognize researchers who Edzard Ernst has received the 2015 John “have contributed mightily to the Maddox Prize for his research counter- public understanding and appreci- ing claims of alternative medicine. Ernst, ation of science.” emeritus professor at Peninsula Medical Shostak is senior astronomer at the SETI Institute in Mountain View, School, Exeter, United Kingdom, was rec- California, host of the SETI Institute’s weekly science radio show, and ognized for his long commitment to apply- a frequent public speaker. Additional information is at http://wonder- ing scientific methodologies to research in complementary and alternative medicines fest.org/sagan-prize. and to communicating this need. The prize recognizes the work of indi- ‘Sea Monster’ Photographed in viduals who promote sound science and ev- idence on a matter of public interest, facing Greek Islands Never Was Alive difficulty or hostility in doing so. B R The citation notes that Ernst continued in his work despite personal attacks and at- A strange photo of what appears surrounding water with his iP- tempts to undermine his research unit and to be an unknown marine ani- hone camera.” Robertson says he to end his employment. “As a result he has mal taken by a Scottish tourist didn’t see the animal at the time, addressed a significant gap in the research in the Greek islands made head- but “looking back through his base in this field and has brought insights lines around the world in early camera, Robertson saw that he into discussions with the public, policy November 2015. had captured a grey creature that makers, commentators, practitioners, and According to Fox News, “Har- resembles an elongated manatee. other researchers.” vey Robertson was on a boat cruise The strange animal appears to “Thanks to everyone who supported off the coast of Parga, sailing pop out of the water in one photo, me in often difficult times, and made this through sea caves with his fam- then disappears under the green- possible,” Ernst said. “For the past twenty ily. He was initially just trying to ish water in the next” (see http:// years I have tried to find out the truth capture the unusual color of the tinyurl.com/pdbpnox). about alternative treatments. The results (Continued on p.11) were often not what enthusiasts of alt med had hoped for. But my job was to test and not to promote alternative medicine. So I published our findings and, if necessary, I defended them. . . .” The Maddox Prize is a joint initiative of the journal Nature , the Kohn Founda- tion, and the charity Sense About Science. It is named for the late Sir John Maddox, a longtime editor of Nature and a passionate defender of science. Maddox was a fellow of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry, as is Ernst.

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 9 Take action with us.

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(Continued from p.9) have easily guessed what the object was and author Loren Coleman was quoted The viral photo sparked speculation at the time and paid little attention to it in a Huffington Post piece as saying, among armchair zoologists and mon- until weeks later when he saw the image “If the photograph is not a hoax, it ster lovers about what this bizarre an- as he was going through his trip photos. could be interesting, cryptozoologically imal might be, ranging from a beaked Marine equipment such as thick ropes, speaking. It might be photographic ev- whale to the “love child of a hippo and fenders, and the like are common and idence of a new species or it could be crocodile” (best not to dwell on the unnoticed in their context but could a reconfiguration (a behavioral restruc- logistics of that coupling). While the seem very mysterious out of context. turing of the body form of a mundane image has some superficially similar In other words, had Robertson re- known species, like a squid, for exam- features to various animals, it does not viewed the images on his iPhone im- ple) not usually seen.” in fact look like any known animal. mediately and noticed it, he could Conclusively identifying known ma- All the ideas are interesting, but simply have looked over the side of the rine animals can be difficult under the teams of marine biologists packing their boat to see what it was; since he didn’t, best of circumstances simply because bags for a long-term research project in it’s a mystery. Others on the same tour of the environment. Unlike terrestrial the sunny Greek islands to study the boat likely saw exactly the same thing beast may want to hold off on making animals that we are used to seeing and but paid no attention to a half-sunken plane reservations because this chimera identifying from our own eye level and boat bumper bobbing in the water. was soon identified. Zoologist Darren whose feet and legs are visible, ani- Naish of the National Oceanography mals in water are by definition partly Centre at the University of Southamp- submerged and therefore partly hidden ton and host of the Tetrapod Zoology Only later does from view, especially when seen from podcast believes that a skin sample bi- someone see some a pier or boat (which gives an unusual opsy of the “creature” would reveal high view from above and to the side). concentrations of polyvinyl chloride. In apparently strange or In many places where lake monsters fact, Naish found a near-perfect match mysterious figure and have been sighted (for example Scot- for the mysterious monster Robertson land’s Loch Ness or Canada’s Lake photographed: an errant and half- come to think they had Okanagan), the visibility is very poor sunken low freeboard fender, used to been in the presence of a just below the surface due to suspended protect boats from damage. sediments. Even in relatively clear In an interview published on Dis- ghost or unusual animal. water, such as that found in the Greek covery News, Naish told me: isles, moving water inevitably causes The object never quite made sense distortion of the image: colors change, as a live animal—what’s with that important details are obscured, and so round black marking identified by This process is common with many on. Naish notes, “For this fender expla- many as an “eye,” and why is there another hole near the tip of what ghost photos in which photographs are nation to work, the object would have looks like a snout? And where are examined days, weeks, or months after to have been heavily distorted by refrac- the flippers or fins? I then remem- the image was taken. Only later does tion, but this looks plausible based on bered seeing extremely similar fea- someone see some apparently strange the photo. Furthermore, features that tures in curved boat fenders. These vinyl structures (there are many dif- or mysterious figure and come to think look like skin folds and so on seem ferent types) fit over the gunwales they had been in the presence of a ghost more likely to be scum and reflected and sides of boats and protect them or unusual animal. But by then the op- light on the water surface.” from dock walls and so on—they portunity for investigating is long gone. The object fooled many people be- often have a shiny look that recalls the skin of animals like dolphins, and This Greek hippo-dolphin monster cause it seems to have an animalian face, this feature obviously made people is different, however. Since the photo complete with a mouth, nostril, eye, think that the object looked espe- is almost certainly of a low freeboard and possibly even ears. The fact that the cially like an animal. fender, it did not disappear and is prob- top of the bumper somewhat resembles It’s not clear whether the photo is ably still there for others to photograph an elongated face to us is not a coinci- a hoax (i.e., Robertson knew what it for themselves. They are common in dence. The human brain is hardwired to was when he photographed the object ports around the world and not nor- recognize faces, and we often see faces but shared the photo claiming it to be mally of sufficient interest to be worth and heads in everyday, non-animal ob- a genuine mystery) or a misidentifica- a photograph. jects, including potatoes, rock cliffs, and tion (i.e., Robertson genuinely had no It is not surprising that people, in- clouds. We can now add boat fenders to idea what it was). The most likely and cluding many “experts,” were fooled by the list, though not a new marine animal charitable explanation is that he could the image; for example, cryptozoologist to the zoology books.

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 11 [ SPECIAL REPORT MEDICAL MISINFORMATION

Another Really Bad Week for the Supplements Industry, Including Criminal Charges STEVEN SALZBERG

he largely unregulated world of surreptitious, all-hands-on-deck effort dietary supplements is like the to sell as much of the product as they TWild West. Dramatic claims could.” abound, most of them unsupported by The criminal indictment, which led evidence, and it’s hard to know if any of to the arrest of six USPlabs employees them can be trusted. Supplement man- and consultants, is just one of a sweep- ufacturers claim their products cure ing set of actions in that week-long pe- cancer, Alzheimer’s disease, arthritis, riod in November 2015. The DOJ also and more. They promise miraculous filed six civil cases against other supple- weight loss results, nebulous “boosting” ment makers for illegally claiming their of your immune system, and anti-aging products could cure diseases. The alle- benefits. gations include: Once in a while, though, they get • Clifford Woods, LLC, illegally sold caught. In mid-November, the United Taheebo Life Tea, Germanium, and States cracked down hard on several Organic Sulfur as treatments for of the more egregious offenders, an- Alzheimer’s and cancer. nouncing indictments against half a dozen supplement makers, including • Optimum Health (aka Lehan Enter- criminal charges against one. prises) illegally sold a product called It’s about time. Consumers every- DMSO cream for arthritis and can- where should applaud these actions cer. and encourage more. Here’s what hap- • Regenica Worldwide (aka Viva- pened. ceuticals) illegally sold their Regene- On Tuesday, November 17, 2015, defendant put it in an email exchange Slim as a disease cure; in addition, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) from May 2009: “lol stuff is completely RegeneSlim contains DMAA, an indicted USPlabs, a major supplement 100% synthetic.” unsafe food additive under the federal manufacturer whose products include The fraud runs even deeper: ac- Food, Drug and Cosmetic Act, but Jack3d and OxyELITE Pro. The DOJ cording to the DOJ, after an out- does not declare DMAA as an ingre- alleged that USPlabs “doctored packag- break of liver injuries associated with dient. ing, labeling, and other paperwork to OxyELITE Pro, in which some con- defraud others about what the product sumers needed liver transplants to save Just to be clear: none of these viola- was.” Further, the indictment points their lives, USPlabs “promised the tions have yet been proven in court. But out that USPlabs claims that their FDA and the public that they would to be even more clear: none of these products are made from natural plant stop distributing the product at issue. products treat or cure cancer, Alzhei- extracts when instead, as one USPlabs They didn’t. Instead, they undertook a mer’s, arthritis, or any other disease.

12 Volume 40 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer In addition to the DOJ actions, the and arrests, USPlabs is still market- The FDA apparently disagrees. In Federal Trade Commission (FTC) ing OxyELITE Pro on their own site, March 2015, they issued a Medication indicted three more supplement man- where they tout it as the “#1 Selling Health Fraud notice that OxyELITE ufacturers for illegal advertising claims Fat Burner,” with a long list of other Pro contains a hidden drug ingredient, (that’s the FTC’s purview). One in- claims. What about the liver toxicity fluoxetine. Fluoxetine is a type of selec- dictment, against Chrystal Ewing and cited by the DOJ? The OxyElite web- tive serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI), her two companies, Health Nutrition used for treating depression and other Products LLC and Classic Productions conditions. According to the FDA, LLC, alleged that: SSRIs have been associated with In ads for W8-B-Gone, CITRI- serious side effects including sui- SLIM 4 and Quick & Easy diet cidal thinking, abnormal bleeding, pills, the defendants featured bogus and seizures. In patients on other weight-loss experts. Citing fake sci- medications for common condi- entific studies, the defendants also tions (aspirin, ibuprofen, or other deceptively claimed to have clinical drugs for depression, anxiety, bipolar proof that consumers would experi- illness, blood clots, chemotherapy, ence a “RAPID FAT meltdown diet heart conditions, and psychosis), program” that lets them shed five ventricular arrhythmia or sudden pounds in four days with one pill, death can occur. or up to 20 pounds in 16 days with four pills. Caveat emptor: these supplements Needless to say, none of those prod- might contain harmful ingredients. ucts deliver the results they claim. There’s only one safe way There’s only one safe way to take sup- It’s a jungle out there. As the FTC’s plements: ask your physician. Unless Jessica Rich said, “People looking for to take supplements: your doctor specifically recommends a dietary supplement to improve their one, stay away. You’ll feel better and ask your physician I health have to wade through a swamp your wallet will benefit too. of misleading ads. Be skeptical of ads Steven Salzberg is the Bloomberg Dis- for supplements that claim to cure dis- tinguished Professor of Biomedical En- eases, reverse the signs of aging or cause gineering, Computer Science, and Bio- weight loss without diet or exercise.” site claims: “OxyELITE Pro shows no statistics at Johns Hopkins University. It appears that major supplement side effects in well over 99% of its users. He was recipient of the Committee for retailers such as GNC have dropped In fact, USPlabs and GNC have stated Skeptical Inquiry’s 2009 Robert P. Balles USPlabs like a hot potato. I couldn’t that there’s been over a billion servings Prize for critical thinking. A version of find OxyELITE Pro on any of their of Jack3d and OxyELITE Pro safely sites. However, despite the indictments taken with no problems!” this column appeared on forbes.com.

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Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 13 [ FORUM

Divine Providence or Divine Malfeasance: A Skeptical Inquiry NICHOLAS S. MOLINARI

he Roman Catholic teaching, doctrine, and dogma of Divine TProvidence played center stage through my earlier life as a very Catholic youth, a sincere seminarian, and a com- passionate priest. As you will see below, I continue to agonize over God’s alleged activism in this world long after leaving the priesthood behind. Dependence on benevolent Provi- dence is most beautifully described and endorsed by Jesus in the Gospel of Luke 12: 22–31 (i.e., God feeds the birds with abundance and clothes the lilies in splendor without being asked). This notion always provided me with a sense of confidence, perhaps to the point of recklessness. In the film God on Trial, Auschwitz prisoners decide to put their god on trial for their terrible suffering. My almsgiving knew no bounds when I had alms to offer because caring at least as much as a thousand acts of ment for their insolence, all these Jews for the poor was/is the right thing to do evil. Just start counting! are finally put to death by the hateful and in any case, God would always pro- In 2008, I watched—or more accu- Nazi apparatus. vide for my needs. But did he? Does he? rately experienced—the TV film God on Reading a newspaper, watching TV I mean, practically speaking, does God Trial. The scene is Auschwitz; the cast news, and listening to radio broadcasts feed us and clothe us without significant is a cluster of starving Jews in a crowded have become hazardous to one’s health, efforts on our part? Or do our efforts barracks. They cannot comprehend or much like cigarette smoking, drugs, and alone effect the desired and undesired reconcile their status as “God’s Chosen excessive booze. Searching for evidence of results? Whenever I dare to mention during People” with their obvious abandon- practical Divine Providence—I confess to serious discussions the preponderance ment (by God) into a hell on earth. being such a seeker—seems a futile occu- of evil in the world, my complaint is Only death can liberate these luckless pation and a frustrating task of detection. usually countered with one or two ex- souls. They decide to put their God on Particularly infuriating is the sad truth that amples of good being done by this or trial with (many) witnesses for the pros- one religion or another is frequently the that person. By this measure, if the ecution and (few) character witnesses source of the hatred that fuels the strife, scales of justice were ever to be bal- for God. Ultimately, God is found the violence, and hundreds of wars, large anced, one act of goodness must weigh guilty. Then, as if in vengeful punish- and small, that have been and are being

14 Volume 40 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer waged throughout modern human history Lord, if you are really there, please Lord, if you are fully satisfied sim- everywhere on Earth. make your existence known to humanity. ply to have created this world, then to Nor is our nation immune from Lord, if you are here, please en- have kicked it out into the universe like its own peculiar domestic war with its lighten our species with the light of the a soccer ball to fend for itself, please in- yearly 2.1 million ER visits resulting truth of brother/sisterhood. spire “churchmen” and “churchwomen” from assaults involving guns, knives, of all religions to substitute the dogma clubs, fists, and other instruments of of Divine Providence with a more violence. Gun homicides now exceed honest one of Human Providence [or 11,000 annually. Who knows the count Americans have been of the gun-wounded and maimed? In suffering as many Human Malfeasance]. this regard, we certainly have earned casualties or more than That way, Lord, all of humanity will the grandiose appellation “exceptional- know, whether choosing to do good or I ism.” Americans have been suffering as in most foreign nations’ evil, it is strictly up to us, period! many casualties or more than in most real civil wars! foreign nations’ real civil wars! I suggest to the R.C. hierarchy that these types of Nicholas S. Molinari, BA, violence truly deserve the label “intrin- STB, received a Catho- sic evil” meriting condemnation by a Lord, if you truly care about human lic education, went to sincere teaching Church. But the Bish- beings, please provide for us all, just as seminary, and became a ops seem obsessed with sexual matters Jesus promised for the birds and lilies. priest, serving two inner and prohibitions, while ignoring deadly Lord, if you are watching diligently, city parishes in Paterson, gun violence, climate change, severe please note the atrocities perpetrated New Jersey, early in his career. The priest- poverty, the New Jim Crow, the take- throughout the world, without resolution hood failed to measure up to the stan- over of government by Big Money— and without your hoped-for intervention. dards he had expected, and he returned Lord, if you have the power of persua- just to name a few crises they should be to the laity, married his one and only wife, addressing. sion or inspiration, please convince the and worked most of his career for a Volvo So, in the spirit of the peeved Psalm- thousands of terrorists in dozens of group- dealership. He and his wife are retired in ist, here are my petitions to a God who ings to cease and desist in your name . . . may have gone AWOL: rather than terrorizing in your name. Brick, New Jersey.

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 15 [ INVESTIGATIVE FILES JOE NICKELL Joe Nickell, PhD, is a skeptical cryptozoologist and author of numerous investigative books, including Tracking the Man-Beasts.

Searching for the Yowie, the Down Under Bigfoot

ike the fabled or Abominable himself once reported an encounter Snowman of the Himalaya (1976, 10). We next drove to Jeno- LMountains, and the Sasquatch/ lan Caves—which Gilroy (1995, 219) Bigfoot of North America, Australia’s claims the Aborigines believed to be Yowie (or Yahoo, among many other Yowie lairs—and bushwalked (hiked) names) is a supposed hairy man-beast through the surrounding mountainous that leaves strange tracks and wonder- terrain in a vain search for the elusive ment wherever it ambles. Equated with creature (Nickell 2001, 16–17). an entity from Aboriginal mythol- In 2015, before and after the annual ogy, also called Dulagarl (or Doolagahl, Australian Skeptics National Conven- “great hairy man”), it was regarded tion in Brisbane (of which I was hon- as a magical being from the time ored to be a headliner) held October of creation—what Aborigines call the 16–18, I was able to resume my quest Dreamtime. Interestingly, however, for the Yowie (and began several other “[M]any early Europeans claimed to investigations). I am indebted to Ross have seen the Yowie, many years before Balch for his tireless help in Brisbane they came to learn about it from the and rural Queensland to the north, and aborigines” (Gilroy 1976, 9). It remains, to Kevin Davies and Nick Ware for according to cryptozoologist Loren their dedicated assistance in Canberra Coleman (2006), “one of the world’s and the countryside. greatest zoological or anthropological I photographed a Yowie with a rather mysteries.” wooden personality, did research at an I first went in search of the creature Aboriginal institute, and kept an eye in 2000 guided by skeptic Peter Rodg- out for any exotic creature in the wild. ers. We ventured into the Blue Moun- Here is some of what I found. tains west of Sydney, which—accord- ing to Yowie popularizer Rex Gilroy Will the Real Yowie . . . (1995, 212)—“continues to be a hot- bed of Yowie man-beast activities—a My study began when Ross Balch vast region of hundreds of square miles drove Myles Power and me through containing inaccessible forest regions scattered Yowie territory to Yowie seldom if ever visited by Europeans.” Park at Kilcoy. There, with parrots We drove into the Katoomba township flitting about, we took photographs bushland and took the world’s steep- of the cracked wooden sculpture of est incline railway (originally built as a the fabled man-beast (Figure 1). As I coal-mine transport in 1878) down into Figure 1. Yowie statue in Yowie Park at Kilcoy, Queensland, did so I quipped, “It doesn’t get more Jamison Valley rainforest where Gilroy Australia (Author’s photo). real than this!” I meant that, of course,

16 Volume 40 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer to apply to skeptics’ sightings: Yowies long fingernails, and being about the a coat of hair . . . what the people here seem not to appear to skeptics—even height of her grandfather. He seemed call a Yahoo or some such name.” Still those looking for them, although it to wish to avoid the girl (“A Catalogue” another case of that period involved an is obligatory for those who report 2006, 207). encounter with a “hideous yahoo” near encounters to insist they were previ- The term Yowie appears to have an abandoned village (“A Catalogue” ously skeptical. been used little if at all during this pe- 2006, 204–206). But what about the Aboriginal elder riod, but the appellation “yourie” or Graham Joyner (1994) conducted who insisted, regarding the Dulagarl, “yowrie” appears by perhaps the 1920s, an in-depth study of the issue, which “He only appears to Aboriginal people” maybe after the Yowrie River or the he reported in Canberra Historical Jour- (Mumbulla 1997)? Do the numerous nearby crossroads community of Yow- nal. He found that Aborigines probably non-Aboriginal sightings contradict rie, named by 1885. There was a Yowie adopted the term Yahoo from settlers, him? Or is it possible he is talking Bay, but it was originally named Ewey rather than the other way around. about a quite different being—not the Bay after the offspring of ewes called Yowie/Yahoo who today (so to “eweys” (Healy and Cropper 2006, 13– ‘Littlefoot’ speak) Bigfoot, but rather his people’s 143, 25), so the term Yowie may not be In addition to the “hairy giant” tra- supernatural entity who could induce aboriginal at all (“A Catalogue” 2006, dition, another type of Yowie is rep- sleep and fly through the air to kidnap 217; Healy and Cropper 2006, 14, 25). resented by the Aborigines’ Junjudees lone women from the bush, yet who— (among other terms). These are small, according to some tribal/regional tra- hairy, magical creatures comparable ditions—contrastingly carried clubs, to European fairies, elves, and lepre- used fire, and ate men. Other creatures chauns. Still, they seem as real as any of Aboriginal lore included the Quink- if we believe the stories of teenagers ins who, variously shaped, were gen- who encountered them in 1978–1979 erally quite small; however, the giant Yowie’s image may on Towers Hill, near Charters Towers, Quinkin, Turramulli, towered over tall Queensland. One teen was attacked trees, had three taloned fingers on each well up from the but claimed to have fought off the hand, and as many clawed toes on each subconscious and be three-foot-tall creature with a rock foot (Healy and Cropper 1994, 116, (Healy and Cropper 2006, 120–121). 118; 2006, 6–12). None of these enti- superimposed on Among many other reports were mul- ties sounds like a Bigfoot type. the visual scene. tiple sightings of similar creatures in Indeed, just as Bigfoot was originally 1994 in the vicinity of Carnarvon a “ of the woods” adapted Gorge in Queensland (Pinkney 2003, from European tales and retrofitted 31–32). onto Native American supernatural be- Some Aborigines emphasize the ings synthesized for the purpose (Nic- Junjudees’ supernatural powers, tell- kell 2011; Loxton and Prothero 2013, ing colorful tales about their exploits. 30–36), the Yowie/Yahoo is similarly Yahoos For instance, they are guardian beings derivative. Australian examples (from Moreover, if we consider the earlier, of certain places, are mischievous, and “A Catalogue of Cases” 2006) show are attracted to honey. They are also a that the earliest reports—the first in parallel term “Yahoo,” we must at sort of bogeyman, used to keep children 1789 being acknowledged as “obviously once recall that it was used—indeed 1 from wandering off, according to Aus- a hoax,” and continuing well after the invented —by English satirist Jonathan tralian Folklore (Ryan 2002, 137–138). beginning of the twentieth century— Swift in his Gulliver’s Travels (1726, Yowie hunters, somewhat embar- were sightings of a “WILD MAN or 343–351). It describes his race of hairy, rassed by the little hairy folk, rational- monstrous GIANT,” a “Hairy Man,” goat-bearded, manlike animals. Swift’s ize that they may be very young Yow- “in appearance half man, half baboon,” Yahoos are brutes but, satirically, have ies—no matter what Aborigines say “wild man of the bush,” “like a black- human depravities. about their “indigenous fairies” (as one fellow [Aborigine] only considerably By 1856 comes a report of a man- researcher calls them [Povah 2006]). larger,” “hairy men,” “an old man . . . beast described alternately as a “wild covered with a thick coat of hair,” “the man of the woods” or a “yahoo.” A case hairy man of the wood,” and so on. of uncertain date in the 1860s involved What Manner of Beast? As an example, in 1871 a “little girl” a twelve-foot-tall Yahoo that had Yowies are described in a widely diverse reported an encounter that was part of webbed feet and belched fire. In the manner—beginning with height, which, a “wild man” tradition in the area. She same decade a Miss Derrincourt en- based on 263 cases (“A Catalogue” described an old man having a bent countered “something in the shape of 2006), ranges from about two to thirteen back, a covering of hair, tremendously a very tall man, seemingly covered with feet. The earliest-known record of an

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 17 [ INVESTIGATIVE FILES JOE NICKELL

Acknowledgments Aboriginal sighting came in July 1871 and Cropper 2006, 105, 170–171, 223). when a “”-like creature was encoun- Again, like sightings of ghosts—typi- In addition to those mentioned in the text, I am grateful to the staff at AIATSIS tered, but we must keep in mind that due cally seen when the percipient is tired, (Australian Institute of Aboriginal and to their long isolation on the Australian performing routine work, daydreaming, Torres Straight Islander Studies), Canberra, island–continent, the Aborigines had no or the like—a Yowie’s image may well and CFI Libraries Director Tim Binga. I knowledge of other than man. up from the subconscious and be super- again want to thank John and Mary Frantz It was the early settlers and journalists imposed on the visual scene (Nickell for their generous financial assistance, who began to describe man-beasts with 2012, 345). which makes many of my investigations possible. terms such as “huge monkey or baboon,” “upright gorilla,” and so on—from 1849 ‘Bigfoot’ Note to the present. The American Sasquatch—after 1958 1. The invention of the word is credited to In the early 1870s, in New South usually called Bigfoot (Nickell 2011, Swift in Gulliver’s Travels, 1726, by the authori- Wales, prospectors saw what they tative Oxford English Dictionary (1971). thought were “hairy men creeping 68)—no doubt had an influence on References around their tents,” but a Sydney Mail Yowie sightings. That is especially so correspondent concluded, “They were after 1967 when Roger Patterson’s American Heritage Dictionary of the English probably the large badgers or wombats famous hoax film greatly publicized Language. 1970. New York: Houghton- that elusive manimal (Nickell 2011, Mifflin Co. which abound there” (“A Catalogue” Bord, Janet, and Colin Bord. 2006. Bigfoot 2006, 207). Wombats, marsupials 68–72). Casebook Updated. N.p.: Pine Winds Press. that somewhat resemble (according Patterson’s “Bigsuit” (a modified “A Catalogue of Cases 1789 to 2006.” 2006. gorilla costume) had pendulous breasts, Appendix A of Healy and Cropper 2006, to American Heritage Dictionary 1970) 203–295. “small bears,” may well be responsible one of several details found in Austra- Coleman, Loren. 2006. Introduction to Healy for a number of other Yowie reports. lian cases occurring (or being reported) and Cropper 2006, vii–viii. only post-Patterson (at least as found Gilroy, Rex. 1976. Psychic Australian, August, The kangaroo and its cousins the 8–25. wallaby and the wallaroo are also in “A Catalogue” 2006). In addition to ———. 1995. Mysterious Australia. Mapleton, good suspects. When, in 1954, three breasts, these motifs include Bigfoot’s QL, Australia: Nexus Publishing. legendary foul odor; large, clawless, Healy, Tony, and Paul Cropper. 1994. Out of Queensland youths reported an en- the Shadows: Mystery Animals of Australia. counter with a six-foot-tall creature human-like footprints; and possibly Sydney: Ironbark. covered with hair, possessing a long other features (cf. Bord and Bord 2006, ———. 2006. The Yowie: In Search of Australia’s tail, and having an “apron” draped from 215–310). Bigfoot. San Antonio, TX: Anomalist Books. The Yowie is becoming increas- Joyner, Graham. 1994. Cited in Healy and its waist, the latter detail was an obvi- Cropper 2006, 12–13. ous clue pointing to a marsupial pouch. ingly standardized in its appearance. Loxton, Daniel, and Donald R. Prothero. 2013. Someone suggested that the boys had It is sometimes said that it resembles Abominable Science! New York: Columbia “depictions of the American Bigfoot” University Press. been scared by “a cranky old wallaroo” Mumbulla, Percy. 1997. Quoted in Healy and (“A Catalogue” 2006, 224). Again, or that “America’s Bigfoot would be an Cropper 2006, 12. other cases may be explained by such identical type” (“A Catalogue” 2006, Nickell, Joe. 2001. Mysterious Australia. 239, 271; cf. Nickell 2011, 225–229; S I 25:2 (March/April), related marsupials. 15–18. In addition to animals, there are 2013). ———. 2011. Tracking the Man-Beasts: numerous other possibilities: hoaxes, Even so, people I spoke with gen- Sasquatch, Vampires, Zombies, and More. including those of a diminutive man erally dismissed the Yowie. In 2000, Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books. ———. 2012. The Science of Ghosts. Amherst, who wore a hairy suit with bicycle-re- for example, staffers at the informa- NY: Prometheus Books. flector eyes (Healy and Cropper 2006, tion center at Echo Point in the Blue ———. 2013. Bigfoot lookalikes. S 168–169); claims made by persons Mountains (Nickell 2001, 17) insisted I 37(5) (September/October): 12–15. with fantasy-prone personalities and by the Yowie was only a mythical creature Oxford English Dictionary. 1971. Compact ubiquitous attention seekers; real wild pursued by a few fringe enthusiasts, and Edition, New York: . men, like a bearded, naked, mentally this seems to remain the majority view. Pinkney, John. 2003. Great Australian Mysteries. Rowville, Victoria, Australia: The Five Mile disturbed man mistaken for a Yowie Several people laughed at my query, Press. (“A Catalogue” 2006, 262); and many and a young bookstore employee in Povah, Frank. 2006. Quoted in Healy and other possibilities, including simple Canberra told me that, although hav- Cropper 2006, 123. ing been born and raised in the Blue Ryan, J.S. 2002. The necessary other, or “when hallucinations and apparitional expe- one needs a monster”: The return of the riences. For example, “waking dreams” Mountains, she had never seen a Yowie Australian Yowie, Australian Folklore 17: that occur between wakefulness and or had reason to take the possibility 130–142. sleep (Nickell 2012, 353–354) may ex- seriously. Still, the wooden statue at Swift, Jonathan. 1726. Reprinted as Gulliver’s Travels into Several Remote Nations of the plain some cases of persons waking to Kilcoy stares vacantly on, a little mon- I World. Boston: Lee & Shepard, 1876. see a Yowie looking at them (see Healy ument to belief.

18 Volume 40 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer [ NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD MASSIMO POLIDORO Massimo Polidoro is an investigator of the paranormal, lecturer, and cofounder and head of CICAP, the Italian skeptics group. His website is at www.massimopolidoro.com.

In Search of Mary Magdalene

as Mary Magdalene the lover helped strengthen feminism. In vari- of Christ and did she have a ous novels, Mary Magdalene became Wson by him? This idea—made a femme fatale. Lawrence, author of popular by The Da Vinci Code, Dan Lady Chatterley’s Lover, wrote a story Brown’s wildly successful novel and about Mary Magdalene and Jesus its film adaptation—has stimulated titled The Risen, filled with double , debates, disputes and even some seri- meanings.” ous attempts at historical research in But even the 1800s’ artists were recent years. Today, some claim they fascinated by this woman and por- have found evidence for the fatherhood trayed her in several paintings. of Christ in an ancient fresco preserved “During the decadent era they turned in a Templar church at Tempio di her into a disturbing character, such The fresco in Tempio Ormelle: Jesus holds a baby, but it is not Ormelle, near Treviso in northern Italy. as Salomé,” continues Iannaccone. his son. It actually is a “Dormitio Virginis,” or the death of the Is it true? Virgin Mary, where Jesus, her son, receives her soul in the form “There are many examples in which of a baby. she is represented as a beautiful Portrait of a Woman woman bejeweled, or naked, symbol- The figure of Magdalene—a sinner izing her newfound innocence. An converted by Jesus and turned into example is the ‘penitent’ Magdalenes one of his most devoted followers— by Francesco Hayez, painted in 1825 has always stimulated the curiosity and 1833. But at that time, hundreds and imagination of artists and mystery of women of high society asked to be mongers alike. The hypothesis of her portrayed in the nude or seminude à , being Jesus Christ’s companion was la Madeleine as it was called. They first suggested long before Brown. “It’s liked to represent this way their an idea born in the Parisian ‘coun- youthful beauty and purity.” terculture’ at the end of the nine- , Another example of “Dormitio Virginis” by Jacopo Torriti, in Santa teenth century developed by artists Maria Maggiore (Rome), dating back to the end of thirteeth cen- A Holy Family that were protesters and often involved tury, like the Tempio Ormelle’s fresco. in the occult, who wanted to shake Some believe that it was not only up the conventions,” Mario Arturo decadent and romantic painters who Iannaccone, historian of Christianity, depicted Magdalene, but before them told the author in a personal interview. came the painters of the Renaissance “For example, in 1888, an opera titled and, further back, medieval art- The Lover of Christ was performed in ists. In these ancient works of art, Paris. It was written by Darzens and the Magdalene was not merely a disturb- lover was, obviously, Mary Magdalene. ing woman; she would be depicted In 1896, a book titled The Gospel of lying on a bed, after giving birth to a Mary (Magdalene) was published; it child, while Jesus holds a baby in his Another “Dormitio” in which the soul of Mary as a child in diapers was an important apocryphal work that arms: his son. can be clearly seen.

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 19 [ NOTES ON A STRANGE WORLD MASSIMO POLIDORO

Even Italian Nobel laureate Dario ally Mary Magdalene can be deduced More important are the studies of so- Fo, the author of a text devoted to from the fact that she wears a red robe, called feminist theology, which aim to Christ and to Magdalene, thinks that traditionally attributed to her, and by re-evaluate the role played by women there might be some truth in the case the presence of a tower behind her, her in early Christianity and therefore also of a not-so-platonic love between Jesus other feature. that of Magdalene: this is an ideolog- and Mary—a hypothesis that Fo sees Is it really possible, however, that a ical, historical, and theological area confirmed in several famous works: painting with such outrageous and he- that is both respectable and culturally “From the cycle of painting by Giotto in retical content could have been painted relevant. Where, however, the modern the upper church of Assisi, all devoted and its significance remain unnoticed myth of Magdalene has no place.” to Mary Magdalene, where she ascends for centuries? If this interpretation were Also, in The Da Vinci Code, one of , to heaven assisted by the angels well true, it would be really one of the most the key clues of an intimate relation- before the Madonna, to a fresco at the shocking discoveries in the history of ship between Jesus and Mary Magda- , Scrovegni Chapel in Padua ” said Fo in art and, especially, in the history of the lene was sought in the Last Supper by an interview found on Diego Cuoghi’s Church. Leonardo da Vinci, where an effemi- website. “While portraying Jesus chas- nate figure, with long hair, sits at the right hand of Christ. “This is the apostle John, as any art student knows,” noted Diego Cuoghi, expert of art history and author of On YouTube and in some publications devoted a study on the issue of Ormelle, in a to the occult, it is quite easy to find those who personal interview with the author. are convinced that they have discovered a Leonardo himself wrote clearly in his preparatory notes who that figure rep- twelfth-century fresco depicting a “holy family” resented. Cuoghi continues: “Perhaps it composed of Jesus, Mary Magdalene, will seem trivial, but Christian sacred art is based on the texts of Christian and their child. religion. For this reason, in almost all Medieval and Renaissance Last Sup- pers Giovanni is always represented as young, boyish-looking, and with a hair- less face, unlike the other apostles who ing the money changers from the The Templars and Magdalene look like adults, often bearded; and temple, Giotto also paints a little boy The version of Mary Magdalene— he often has the head reclined on the who, scared, runs to take refuge near who was alternatively seen as the first shoulder or chest of Jesus.” a woman: Mary Magdalene, on whose feminist, sorceress, witch, priestess of a If, then, the one painted by Leon- head stands a halo. That baby, suggests vaguely defined religion of a Mother ardo is not Magdalene, could she be the painter, clings to his mother as if to Goddess—as the true founder of depicted in the fresco at Tempio Or- ask protection from the outburst of a Christianity (or of a Christian alter- melle? , man who had always been seen smiling. native) is actually a very modern myth. Cuoghi says: “First of all it should His father, Jesus.” “It is a reinterpretation of the fig- be clarified that the color red is not a On YouTube and in some publica- ure of this woman that was proposed characteristic exclusive to Mary Mag- tions devoted to the occult, it is quite in the late nineteenth century,” says dalene, but belongs also to the Ma- easy to find those who are convinced Iannaccone. “Since then, Magdalene donna, for example. And the tower is that they have discovered a twelfth-cen- has been charged with new meanings, a characteristic iconography of Santa tury fresco depicting a “holy family” becoming a prism that reflects the Barbara (who was locked in a tower) , composed of Jesus, Mary Magdalene entire spectrum of modern protesters and, again, of the Virgin Mary (also and their child. against traditional Christianity.” called Turris Davidic in litanies).” The fresco in question is located The Da Vinci Code had popularized The iconographic elements that dis- in Tempio Ormelle, on the wall of a the idea of a Jesus bloodline. “These tinguish Magdalene in art, in fact, are medieval church built by the Tem- are modern fantasies often connected different: the jar of ointments in Medi- plar Knights. According to some, the to sacred or graalian bloodlines,” con- eval times, as Mary Magdalene washed church was dedicated to Mary Mag- tinues Iannaccone. “No serious histo- the feet of Christ, and the skull, the dalene, of whom the Templars were rian, caring for his own reputation, ever book, and the crucifix from the six- devout, and the fact that in a fresco took them seriously, simply because teenth century onward. , worn by time a lady portrayed is actu- they lack the necessary foundations. “As for the Templars,” continues

20 Volume 40 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer Cuoghi, “they never dedicated any The painting was refused and the artist liography of texts written by schol- church to Mary Magdalene but only to tried by the Inquisition.” ars who have studied the work of the Virgin Mary, whose cult was pas- A closer examination of the painting this painter, from Toesca and Salvini until Frugoni, Pisani, Wolf, Fornari, sionately widespread by Saint Bernard on the walls of the church of Tempio, one can easily verify that none of Clairvaux, who wrote the rule of then, reveals something quite different. of them went even close to these the Templars and ‘invented’ the term “This is what is called a Dormitio “modern” interpretations—precisely ‘Notre Dame.’” Virginis, or the transit of the Virgin, because they are modern readings, Iannaccone agrees: “The Templars the final episode of Mary’s life as told unhistorical, with no method, which were mostly French and the tradition by some apocryphal accounts but de- totally ignore the sources. Dario Fo collected the jokes of his son Jacopo, of the repentant prostitute landed in picted in many works of art until the a comedian, who clung, I do not Provence became fixed in the tenth late fifteenth century, especially in the know with how much conviction, to century, giving rise to a lively worship that later extended to all of France. Therefore a number of French Tem- plars was certainly devoted to Saint Mary Magdalene, but in the same way What then does the Tempio Ormelle fresco depict, they were of other saints.” if the figure lying in bed is not Magdalene? And why does a man (who is certainly Jesus, A Little Mysterious Fresco What then does the Tempio Ormelle since he is characterized by a crossed cloud) fresco depict, if the figure lying in bed hold in his arms a newborn baby? is not Magdalene? And why does a man (who is certainly Jesus, since he is characterized by a crossed cloud) hold in his arms a newborn baby? Often, those who venture into this churches dedicated to her,” according the inventions of Dan Brown. Before kind of reckless interpretation ignore to Cuoghi. “This scene depicts the Vir- the release of The Da Vinci Code he the entire history of art and interpret gin dying while standing next to her son never spoke about this. the images according to their own per- Jesus, who receives her soul in the form But why today is there so much dis- sonal biases. A famous example of this of a baby in diapers. In other versions, cussion about Magdalene? What’s so kind of behavior is that of those who Jesus is already in heaven, and brings special about this woman to attract the today see flying saucers, aircraft, and with him the soul of the Virgin Mary. ships in Medieval and Renaissance Beautiful examples of the Dormitio can attention of fans of mysteries? paintings (see this column, SI, March/ “Magdalene has been presented as a . be seen in Rome in the apse mosaics April 2014 and July/August 2014) by Pietro Cavallini, in Santa Maria in free woman, aware of her charm, who “Do you really think it possible that, , follows Jesus by her own choice,” con- , Trastevere and in those by Jacopo Tor- in the thirteenth century a painting riti in Santa Maria Maggiore, both dat- cludes Iannaccone. with such a subject (Mary Magdalene ing from the late thirteenth century, the She is a complete female figure, giving birth to Jesus’s son) could be same period of the paintings at Tempio closer to modern sensibilities than, painted on the walls of a church? Do Ormelle.” for example, Mary the mother of you think that the ecclesiastics who Not surprisingly, on the walls of the Jesus or any other women who fol- lowed him. She was called “apostle commissioned the work to the artist same church, dedicated to Our Lady as would not have had anything to say? to the apostles” because she was many of those built by the Templars, very close to Jesus and because I do not think so,” observes Cuoghi. the life of Mary is depicted in fresco she received, according to the “Just think of the many paintings that after fresco. And the cycle ends with Gospels, the announcement of his Caravaggio was forced to do all over the Dormitio, or the death and ascen- Resurrection. Saint Gregory the because they did not meet the stan- sion into heaven of the Virgin. Great wrote in a sermon that he had dards required or what happened with converted to holiness after a lifetime of sin. This (historically uncertain) the Last Supper by Veronese, destined Modernity of Magdalene to the refectory of the Dominican con- proposal was successful. Two or three figures of women mentioned in the vent of Saints John and Paul in Venice, And what about the Giotto’s frescoes that so surprised Dario Fo? Iannaccone Gospels were merged into a coherent where the artist had placed all kind of character, the perfect penitent who, , people, dwarves, acrobats and animals, has an answer: however, had experienced everything I as if it were a spectacle at the palace. Leafing through the extensive bib- in life, including free sexuality.

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 21 [ PSYCHIC VIBRATIONS ROBERT SHEAFFER Sheaffer’s “Psychic Vibrations” column has appeared in the S  I for forty years; its highlights were published as a book (Create Space, 2011). Sheaffer blogs at www.BadUFOs. com, and his website is www.debunker.com.

Missiles and Saucers

lot of recent UFO sightings and it increased in altitude and penetrated In fact, according to the Crop Cir- some clouds and accelerated out of related discussion resolve into sight through the cloud cover quickly. cles Research Foundation, this witness Apyrotechnic shows created by the “was unconsciously compelled to write world’s space programs. On June 29, But satellite orbit guru Ted Mol- down symbols consisting of lines and 2015, at 1:28 , a man identified czan thought that this sounded like it squares from left to right, on the back only as C.J. and his wife were driving might be a possible satellite re-entry, of the Motel 6 full page receipt.... It near Wadley, Georgia, when a “large and he went to work. He found that has been independently confirmed metallic object with fluid oil slick the time of the event matched almost both by myself and another researcher body spurting sparks from the rear perfectly with the known re-entry of (Dr. Horace Drew) that C.J.’s symbols flies dirctly over Our truck” (sic). The 1973-084D / 6939, the final rocket are in fact a message written in binary man, a U.S. Army non-commissioned stage of the launch of Cosmos 606. code that can be translated via a stan- officer on active duty, reported to the This event was widely witnessed, giv- dard ASCII table.” National UFO Reporting Center ing rise to 169 reports in the database Where have we seen this before? (NUFORC) that (sic throughout): of the American Meteor Society. Mol- Just recently, proponents of the 1980 At precisely 01:28  29 June 2015 czan wrote: Rendlesham Forest incident were on HWY 1 south heading north making a big fuss over the claims by approximately 7-8 miles south of a The witness stated that the sight- ing was at “precisely 01:28 .” Sgt. Jim Penniston (ret.) that he tele- gas station at 10525 HWY 1 south, pathically received, and wrote down in Wadley, GA, 30477. Our radio Based on the trajectory analysis, began to get real static so I turned I doubt they would have spotted his loose-leaf notebook, ASCII binary it down when my wife noticed a the re-entry much before 01:29:30 data from the Rendlesham UFO sent very large object flying left to right EDT, when it was near culmination, by time travelers (see this column, No- 34 deg above the NW horizon. I coming toward us. I looked up to the vember/December 2015). C.J. seems to left and hit my brakes stopping our estimate that they would have lost truck to the side of the road. The sight of it about 01:30:30 EDT. The have done much the same thing. object appeared to be approximately time discrepancy is not large. If the On the evening of October 8, 2015, 250 meters in length 60 meters witness were to insist that 01:28 is observers in Saudi Arabia, Iran, and height and was approximately flying correct, and claim that this proved nearby countries saw a spectacular the re-entry was not their UFO, 200 feet in altitude and was spurting streak of light in the sky surrounded sparks from the rear of the object. then he would need to explain how The sparks were jetting out about he failed to see the re-entry when by a glowing cloud. “Video: UFO over 50-80 meters in a pattern of con- it passed a minute or two after the Saudi?” shared an October 11, 2015, trolling thrust. UFO, directly in front of him as he news story on Emirates 247: “Saudi My wife and I had a very good resumed his drive north. The satel- look at the object closer than anyone amateur photographer captured object lite imagery, taken within minutes of as it streaked slowly across the skies.” else on that highway considering there the sighting, reveals that the sky was was no vehicles in sight. The object fairly clear. Molczan investigated and found that had a dim glow of orange around The reported sighting duration of they had seen an engine burn of the it, vague but noticeable. The objects 4-5 min is quite a bit longer than the Centaur rocket NROL-55, placing a exterior was metallic but appeared to 1 min that I estimate the re-entry was look like oil on water effect to it and in view, but the discrepancy is not U.S. surveillance satellite payload into appeared to be fluid like movement unusual for events of this type. its proper orbit. over the metallic body of the object. On November 5, James Oberg re- My wife and I watched in dis- The NUFORC added Molczan’s minded us that it was the twenty-fifth belief in what we were witnessing explanation to its listing of this inci- anniversary of the greatest mass UFO as it moved left to right the object decreased in altitude as it was over dent. The witness, however, “states un- sighting in French history, on the eve- the highway then began to increase in ambiguously that he believes that what ning of November 5, 1990 (http://goo. altitude after it crossed the highway he witnessed with his family was not a gl/plmsOu). Thousands of observers right overhead of us. We watched as re-entering satellite.” saw the object, and many sketched it.

22 Volume 40 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer Some reported electromagnetic effects launch apparition” requires the observer The plume, then actually higher in on car radios and computers. Mol- to be in darkness, while the missile the sky, gets to be more than 100 miles long, perhaps 500-600 miles czan and others have shown that this must be high enough to be in full sun- in space before falling back into was the re-entry of a Russian Proton light (http://goo.gl/MlZQTm). This the atmosphere. Half of the tests rocket (designation 1990-094C), used rare occasion would occur only about have occurred within an hour of to launch the Gorizont 23 satellite. 5 percent of the time during a given sunset. For millions of people along Nonetheless, it caused a sensation twenty-four-hour period. the route, a triangle cloud suddenly appears from nowhere and grows for among UFOlogists, many of whom Many people thought that the 60 seconds. Then the nose flares into adamantly refused to accept the obvi- missile was quite close to them. One a brief spiral and fades away. (http:// ous explanation. Oberg wrote: “Many observer at our event posted that the goo.gl/hTNjIk) witnesses described a solid structure missile must not have reached its des- And finally, almost missile-related: with beacons, jets, contrails, search- tination, as it exploded over our town! a new explanation has been offered— lights. . . . Some witnesses reported where none is needed—for the sup- ‘alternating slow and rapid speeds’ or a posed “UFO crash” near Kecksburg, ‘vertical ascent.’ Civil & military pilots Pennsylvania, on December 9, 1965. among most spectacular misperceivers. John Ventre is the Pennsylvania state ‘This thing was not of this world,’ said Many people thought director of the Mutual UFO Network Capt. Mike D’Alton. ‘In all my 23 years that the missile was (MUFON) and also appears on MU- of flying I’ve never seen a craft anything quite close to them. FON’s sensationalist TV show Hangar like this.’” One observer at our 1 on the History Channel (see this col- Then on the evening of November umn, January/February 2016). Ventre 7, 2015, a brilliant light streaking across event posted that the told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (De- the sky startled observers throughout missile must not have cember 6, 2015) that the object sup- California and in neighboring states. posedly crashing near Kecksburg was This spectacular sight generated a great reached its destination, “a General Electric Mark 2 Re-entry deal of excitement and sensational as it exploded over Vehicle that had been launched by the headlines about “UFOs” and “aliens.” Air Force as a spy satellite, but fell out Somewhat belatedly, the U.S. Navy our town! of orbit” (http://goo.gl/hghffu). stated that it was a test launch of an However, the Kecksburg “UFO unarmed Trident II missile from a sub- crash” matches exactly in time, direc- marine. The Drudge Report headlined, tion, etc., with the well-documented “Missile California Freakout,” while Great Lakes Fireball of December Alan Boyle of NBC News wrote, “Tri- 9, 1965 (http://www.debunker.com/ Other observers wrote that it was right dent Missile launch sparks UFO freak- Kecksburg.html). It was seen across over their heads (an impossibility, out in Los Angeles and on Twitter.” hundreds of miles from Indiana and unless they were on the ocean), yet Not surprisingly, many conspiracy-ori- Ontario to Pennsylvania. There was another that it paused and changed ented UFOlogists claimed that the U.S. an article about it in the February 1966 direction. But appearances can be de- Navy was lying about a missile launch issue of Sky and Telescope magazine. As ceiving, as the first and second stages of to cover up a genuine UFO. They seem with other such events, many observers the missile separate and fall away. The to have forgotten that the U.S. Navy thought that the object was near them, dummy warhead arrived at its target in issued a warning five days earlier for passing right over their town, when it the Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Is- all air traffic to avoid this area off the was in fact hundreds of miles away. lands, exactly as planned. coast until November 15. A second test What an amazing coincidence it would A missile scare was repeated on launch occurred on November 9, but it be if Ventre’s undocumented crashing November 17, this time by observ- occurred during the daytime and no- satellite just happened to come at the ers in Siberia. When a huge, glowing, body seems to have noticed it. same time traveling in the same di- gaseous-looking object was seen in the I happened to be outdoors at an rection as the well-documented Great event in San Diego County and saw sky, initial explanations ranged from a Lakes Fireball meteor (whose orbit has the missile climb higher and further “UFO” to an “alien wormhole.” But as been analyzed and definitely came in downrange (which paradoxically made Oberg explained to Lee Speigel of the from space). The Kecksburg “witnesses” it appear to be moving lower), leaving Huffington Post: should have seen two amazing objects, behind for several minutes a glowing It was the twelfth test in a bizarre the meteor fireball and the crashing blue gaseous cloud high enough above Russian missile program to develop satellite, nipping at each other’s heels. the ground to still be illuminated by defense-penetrating warheads... The John Ventre also said that Malaysian just-launched missile coasts for sev- the sun. Stranger still, in space the eral minutes and then fires its last Air flight MH-370 was probably ab- cloud keeps moving following the mis- stage pushing the warhead down- ducted by aliens. Yes, UFOlogy really I sile. Oberg noted that this “spectacular wards into a special radar test range. is that lame.

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 23 [ THE SCIENCE OF SCIENCE COMMUNICATION MATTHEW NISBET Matthew Nisbet is associate professor of communication at Northeastern University and a Committee for Skeptical Inquiry scientific consultant. From 1997 to 1999, he was public relations director for CSI.

Shifting the Conversation about Climate Change Strategies to Build Public Demand for Action

ate last year at the United Nations Even for individuals who closely fol- 2010; Cook et al. 2013). One study, in climate change summit in Paris, low the issue, it is impossible to track fact, indicates the consensus is actually Lworld leaders reached a historic the latest scientific findings or stud- as high as 99.9 percent (Powell 2015). accord committing their countries to ies about climate change, much less Yet recent surveys find that only one lowering greenhouse gas emissions parse the many complexities involved. out of ten Americans correctly estimate over the next two decades and beyond. Instead, as with medical questions or agreement among climate scientists as The combined commitments by technology issues, most people use greater than 90 percent (Leiserowitz et countries fall short of what many sci- what they perceive as the consensus al. 2014). entists say is needed to avoid the worst opinion of relevant experts as a mental To evaluate strategies for correcting impacts of climate change, but the Paris short cut. perceptions of expert consensus, van accord marks an essential first step. der Linden and his colleagues (2014) World leaders pledged to revisit their tested the effects of different varia- commitments every five years with the tions on the same message: “97% of goal of ratcheting up efforts to rapidly On the issue of climate climate scientists have concluded that reduce emissions. human-caused climate change is hap- Yet over the next decade, as the change, the problem pening.” In one experimental condi- joins with other coun- is that many members tion, subjects were presented just with tries in a quest to decarbonize the world the text of the message. In a second economy, it will be essential to also of the public are not condition, the text was paired with a ratchet up U.S. public opinion. very good at accurately pie chart visually conveying the level The challenge is to move the ma- of consensus. In other conditions, sub- jority of Americans who remain am- estimating the true jects were presented with variations on bivalent about the issue toward greater level of scientific a relevant metaphor such as, “If 97% support for government action. consensus. of engineers concluded that a particu- Recent studies, including several lar bridge is unsafe to cross, would you that I have conducted, suggest a port- believe them? 97% of climate scientists folio of related communication strate- have concluded that human-caused cli- gies that can help shift the conversation mate change is happening.” about climate change, building public Across each of their experimental demand for solutions. conditions, boosting awareness of sci- On the issue of climate change, the entific consensus increased beliefs that problem is that many members of the climate change is happening, that it is Talking Up Consensus public are not very good at accurately es- human caused, and that it is a worri- As simple as it might sound, percep- timating the true level of scientific con- some problem. These shifts in beliefs tions of scientific consensus on cli- sensus. Surveys of climate scientists and in turn increased subjects’ support for mate change serve as a key “gateway comprehensive reviews of thousands of policy action, with some of the biggest belief,” influencing other beliefs about peer-reviewed studies confirm the same increases observed among Republicans, the issue, which in turn shape support basic fact: at least 97 percent of climate who tend to be more dismissive of the for policy action, report Sander van scientists say that human-caused cli- issue (van der Linden et al. 2015). In- der Linden and colleagues (2015) in a mate change is happening (see Doran terestingly, in comparison to the tested recently published study. and Zimmerman 2009; Anderegg et al. metaphors, subjects who received either

24 Volume 40 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer the simple text statement or the pie public health, individuals said that the sis that scientists and other experts can chart displayed the greatest increase in information was both useful and com- use in face-to-face conversations, presen- their beliefs. pelling, particularly at the end of the tations, meetings, media interviews, and Metaphors are especially useful for essay when locally focused policy ac- via social media. Yet to ratchet up pub- explaining complex mechanisms re- tions were paired with specific benefits lic engagement with climate change, lated to climate science, reasoned van to public health (Maibach et al. 2010). scientists and experts will also have to der Linden and his colleagues (2014), In a follow-up study, we conducted be joined by a variety of opinion leaders but when trying to convey the strength a nationally representative online survey from across sectors of society, trusted of scientific consensus, “presenting in- in which respondents from each of the voices that can influence otherwise formation in a way that is short, simple, six audience segments were randomly difficult-to-reach audiences (see Nisbet and easy to comprehend and remember assigned to three different experimen- and Kotcher 2009). seems to offer the highest probability tal conditions allowing us to evaluate Studies, for example, have identified of success for all audiences examined,” their emotional reactions to strategi- TV weathercasters as an especially im- they concluded. portant community influencer. Local TV broadcasts remain the top news Reframing the Debate A public health focus source for a majority of Americans, As we educate the public about sci- and most say they watch the local news entific consensus, evidence suggests stresses scientific primarily for the weathercast. Given we also need to reframe the focus of findings that link their training, visibility, reach, and debate. Americans tend to view climate climate change to an trusted status, weathercasters hold the change as a scientific or environmental unique ability to describe how local issue, but not as a problem that affects increase in the weather conditions, such as heat waves, them personally or that connects to incidence of infectious drought, or heavy precipitation, may be issues that they already perceive as related to climate change. important. diseases, asthma, Connecting the dots on such events Successfully reframing climate allergies, heat stroke, is important. Research shows that change means remaining true to the when people understand that they have underlying science of the issue while and other health personally experienced the effects of applying research to tailor messages to problems. climate change, they are more likely different audiences, making the com- to be concerned about the issue and plex issue understandable and person- to support a variety of policy actions ally important (see Nisbet 2009). (Placky et al. 2015). To date, more than For example, in a series of studies 250 local weathercasters in the United States representing 185 stations and conducted with several colleagues, we cally framed messages about climate 105 media markets have been recruited examined how Americans respond to change. In comparison to messages to include regular “Climate Matters” information about climate change when that defined climate change in terms segments as part of their broadcasts, the issue is framed as a public health of either the environment or national using easily adopted visuals that are lo- problem. A public health focus stresses security, talking about climate change calized to specific audiences. scientific findings that link climate as a public health problem generated A longitudinal study evaluating change to an increase in the incidence greater feelings of hope among subjects. a pilot program at a local TV station of infectious diseases, asthma, allergies, Research suggests that this emotion in Columbia, South Carolina, found heat stroke, and other health problems, helps promote greater public involve- that after one year of regular Climate risks that differentially impact children, ment and participation on the issue. Matters segments, viewers of the sta- the elderly, and the poor. Among subjects who tended to doubt To test the effects of this frame, in or dismiss climate change as a problem, tion’s broadcast had developed a more an initial study, we conducted in-depth the public health focus helped defuse science-based understanding of climate interviews with seventy respondents anger in reaction to information about change than viewers of other local news from twenty-nine states, recruiting sub- the issue, creating the opportunity for stations (Placky et al. 2015). Pope jects from six previously defined audi- opinion change (Myers et al. 2012). Francis’s recent effort to reframe cli- ence segments. These segments ranged mate change in terms of religious duty and social justice is another example of on a continuum from those individuals Working with a Diversity of the impact that trusted voices can have deeply alarmed by climate change to Opinion Leaders those who were deeply dismissive of the on public opinion. problem. Across all six audience seg- The research on consensus messag- Following the release of the pope’s ments, when asked to read a short essay ing and framing suggest easy-to-adopt encyclical on the subject and his visit that framed climate change in terms of talking points and novel lines of empha- to the United States this past year, 17

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 25 [ THE SCIENCE OF COMMUNICATION MATTHEW NISBET percent of Americans and 35 percent or in applying across policy decisions sites/default/files/reports/Climate-Beliefs- November-2013.pdf. of Catholics reported that the pope’s and social contexts. Moreover, no matter Maibach, E., A. Leiserowitz, C. Roser-Renouf, position on climate change had influ- how knowledgeable and adept experts et al. 2015. The Francis effect: How Pope enced their views. In comparison to six and their partners might be in apply- Francis changed the conversation about months prior to the pope’s visit, signifi- ing research to their communication climate change. George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication: cantly more Americans were likely to efforts, progress on climate change will Fairfax, VA. say that climate change is a moral issue, ultimately require the different sides in Maibach, E.W., M. Nisbet, P. Baldwin, et al. a social fairness issue, and a religious the debate to give ground, negotiate, 2010. Reframing climate change as a public health issue: An exploratory study of public issue (Maibach et al. 2015). These and compromise. In the case of climate reactions. BMC Public Health 10(1): 299. findings provide strong evidence that change, the major question therefore is Myers, T.A., M.C. Nisbet, E.W. Maibach, et al. the pope’s reframing of climate change whether public demand for action and 2012. A public health frame arouses hopeful the openness to compromise will happen emotions about climate change. Climatic had an impact on how the public Change 113(3–4), 1105–1112. thinks about the problem, connecting too late, preventing society from success- Nisbet, M.C. 2009. Communicating climate I to widely shared values that transcend fully avoiding the most serious risks. change: Why frames matter for public engagement. Environment: Science and Policy political differences. References for Sustainable Development 51(2): 12–23. Nisbet, M.C., and J.E. Kotcher. 2009. A two- Anderegg, W.R., J.W. Prall, J. Harold, et al. step flow of influence? Opinion-leader The Need for Compromise 2010. Expert credibility in climate change. campaigns on climate change. Science Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Communication 30(3): 328–54. Ratcheting up public support for govern- 107(27): 12107–12109. Placky, B.W., E. Maibach, J. Witte, et al. ment action on climate change not only Cook, J., D. Nuccitelli, S.A. Green, et al. 2013. 2015. Climate matters: A comprehen- requires a sophisticated, research-based Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature. sive educational resource program for understanding of effective communica- Environmental Research Letters 8(2): 024024. broadcast meteorologists. Bulletin of the tion approaches but also an acceptance Doran, P.T., and M.K. Zimmerman. 2009. American Meteorological Society doi:10.1175/ BAMS-D-14-00235.1, in press. that there are strong limits to what Examining the scientific consensus on cli- mate change. Eos, Transactions American Powell, James Lawrence. 2015. The consen- even the best-funded and most care- Geophysical Union 90(3): 22–23. sus on anthropogenic global warming. fully planned strategy can accomplish. Leiserowitz, A., E. Maibach, C. Roser- S I 39(6): 42–45. Research findings evaluating differ- Renouf, et al. 2014. Climate Change Van der Linden, S.L., A.A. Leiserowitz, G.D. in the American Mind: Americans’ Feinberg, et al. 2014. How to communicate ent communication strategies are often Global Warming Beliefs and Attitudes the scientific consensus on climate change: messy, complex, and difficult to translate in November 2013. Yale University and Plain facts, pie charts or metaphors? Climatic into practice. They are also subject to George Mason University. Yale Project on Change 126(1–2): 255–62. Climate Change Communication, New ———. 2015. The scientific consensus on cli- revision based on new research, changes Haven, Conn. Available online at http:// mate change as a gateway belief: Experimental in the dynamics surrounding an issue, www.climatechangecommunication.org/ evidence. PloS one 10(2): e0118489.

For in-depth interviews with the most fascinating minds in science, religion, and politics, join Point of Inquiry cohosts Lindsay Beyerstein and Josh Zepps at pointofinquiry.org. JOSH ZEPPS LINDSAY BEYERSTEIN

Josh Zepps (cohost) is a new media Lindsay Beyerstein (cohost) is an pioneer; a journalist serving as a found- award-winning investigative journalist ing host and producer at the online talk and staff writer for In These Times. Her network HuffPost Live, following hosting work has appeared in places such as stints with such outlets as Bloomberg The New Republic, Reuters, Slate, Salon, TV, the , and as an an- Ms. Magazine, and The New York Press. chor for CBS’s Peabody Award-winning Wait to see what stories she tells with Channel One News. her guests on Point of Inquiry.

26 Volume 40 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer [ BEHAVIOR & BELIEF STUART VYSE Stuart Vyse is a psychologist and author of Believing in Magic: The Psychology of Superstition, which won the William James Book Award of the American Psychological Association. He is a fellow of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry.

Guns: Feeling Safe ≠ Being Safe

n the days after the mass shooting in San Bernardino, California, in Ilate 2015, a dear friend who is a single mother made an impassioned plea on her Facebook page. After see- ing many calls for increased gun con- trol, she explained that she had been a victim of assault in the past and would not be giving up her handgun anytime soon. She said maintaining her per- mit was difficult to do—“as it should be”—but she was clearly upset about the many calls for additional controls. While I sympathize with my friend’s desire for security, she has fallen for one of the most common and most dangerous misconceptions Americans hold. According to a 2013 Gallup poll (Swift 2013), the top rea- son U.S. gun owners keep a firearm is for “personal safety/protection.” Fully 60 percent of gun owners gave this The Campaign against Gun pendently associated with an increase reason; the next most common reason Violence Research was “hunting” at 36 percent. in the risk of homicide in the home.” Sadly, buying a gun does not make In 1993, Arthur Kellermann and Indeed, controlling for other factors, you safer. To the contrary, the evi- colleagues published a landmark households where a gun was present dence suggests that bringing a gun study in the New England Journal were 2.7 times more likely to expe- into your home increases the chances of Medicine titled “Gun Ownership rience a homicide and 77 percent of you will be killed. You are to be for- as a Risk Factor for Homicide in the victims were killed by someone given if you have not heard more about the Home” (Kellermann et al. 1993). they knew: a spouse, partner, relative, this. There is an extremely profitable The Kellermann study examined 388 friend, roommate, or acquaintance. industry based on the myth that guns cases of homicide that occurred in the Kellermann and colleagues con- are an effective means of self-protec- home or within the property borders cluded: tion, and it would be bad for business of the home and an equal number Despite the widely held belief that if this information were more widely of matched control households. The guns are effective for protection, known. Furthermore, the myth that data were drawn from the most pop- our results suggest that they actu- weapons make you safer has benefited ulous counties in three different states ally pose a substantial threat to members of the household. People from a deliberate campaign against (Ohio, Tennessee, and Washington). who keep guns in their homes science and the collection of gun vi- Kellermann famously found that appear to be at greater risk of olence data. “keeping a gun in the home is inde- homicide in the home than people

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 27 [ BEHAVIOR AND BELIEF STUART VYSE

funding gun violence research (Dennis 2015). But last summer Congress qui- etly renewed the prohibition of firearms research, voting down an amendment that would have lifted the ban. When asked why the CDC amendment was not supported, then-Speaker of the House John Boehner replied, “Because guns are not a disease” (Bertrand 2015). Again in December of 2015, Con- gress passed another omnibus spending bill. Despite the efforts of Democrats to eliminate the Dickey amendment, it survived again, and the NRA-backed ban on gun violence research continues (Ferris 2015).

What Does the Available Research Show? Although federal funding has been cut off for almost two decades, investiga- tors have found other ways to conduct who do not. Most of this risk is due to a substantially greater risk of research, and there are some consistent homicide at the hands of a family findings. member or intimate acquaintance. We did not find evidence of a pro- 1. Access to Firearms Increases the Risk tective effect of keeping a gun in the of Being a Victim of Homicide. home, even in the small subgroup Although federal of cases that involved forced entry. funding has been cut The primary result of the Keller- (p. 1090) mann study has held up over time. In off for almost two 2014, researchers from the University The Kellermann study caused quite of California at San Francisco pub- a stir, and pro-gun advocates were quick decades, investigators lished a meta-analysis in the Annals to try to criticize it. But the gun lobby have found other ways of Internal Medicine, summarizing all was not satisfied with merely trying to to conduct research, the available controlled studies (An- debunk the study. The National Rifle glemyer et al. 2014). They found the Association (NRA) acted to prevent re- and there are some odds of being a victim of homicide were search on gun violence altogether. consistent findings. between 1.6 and 3.0 times higher when The Kellermann study employed the victim had access to a firearm. The telephone and face-to-face interviews, wide availability of firearms is only one making it very expensive to conduct, of the factors contributing to the ho- and the investigators had received micide rate in the United States but, funding from the Center for Disease contrary to popular belief, you are safer Control (CDC) and Prevention’s Na- if you don’t have a gun at home than if tional Center for Injury Prevention “advocate or promote gun control.” In you do. (NCIP). The NRA response was to addition, Congress cut the CDC’s bud- advocate for the complete elimination get by $2.6 million, the same amount 2. Women Are Especially at Risk of the NCIP. They failed at that ef- that had been allocated for firearm in- of Homicide When a Firearm is fort, but they were able to effectively jury research in the previous year. The Present. block all federal funding of research on effect of the amendment was chilling, The same 2014 meta-analysis found gun violence. In what has come to be and all federal funding for firearm in- that the increased risk of homicide vic- called the Dickey Amendment—after jury research quickly disappeared, a timization created by access to a firearm its author, former U.S. Representative condition that is still in effect today was significantly greater for women Jay Dickey (R-Arkansas)—Congress (Jamieson 2013). than for men (Anglemyer et al. 2014). placed language in the 1996 omnibus Former Representative Dickey funding bill that prohibited any funds has subsequently changed his posi- 3. Access to Firearms Greatly Increases given to the CDC from being used to tion and is now in favor of the CDC the Risk of Suicide.

28 Volume 40 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer Although it gets far less attention, For example, in April of 2015 a guns were no more effective than other suicide is a much bigger problem than study published in Preventive Medicine methods of self-defense in this regard. homicide. According to the National by David Hemenway of the Harvard Dr. Hemenway summarized the Center for Health Statistics, in 2013 School of Public Health and Sara J. Sol- findings this way: there were 2.5 times as many suicides nick of the University of Vermont ex- The National Crime Victimization as homicides in the United States, and amined data from the National Crime Surveys, the gold standard for crime many of them were committed using a Victimization Surveys for the years estimates, indicates that using a gun firearm. Of all firearm deaths, 63 per- 2007 through 2011 (Hemenway and in self-defense is quite rare (less cent were suicides and only 33 percent Solnick 2015). Hemenway and Sol- than 1 percent of contact crime) and that it does not appear to be were homicides. (The other 4 percent nick found that out of 14,000 episodes more effective than many other mea-

Legal Intervention US Firearms Deaths, 2013 (source CDC) Undetermined Homicide Suicide Unintentional 05000 10,000 15,000 20,000

are for unintentional [accidents], un- determined, and legal interventions.) Furthermore, 51 percent of all sui- cides were committed with a firearm (National Center for Health Statistics 2015). Many suicides are impulsive acts that can often be prevented if there is time. Unfortunately, firearms are quick and highly lethal. Ready access to a gun makes it possible to act on impulse with tragically irreversible results. The 2014 meta-analysis also looked at controlled in which the victim came into contact sures of self-defense or protection in reducing the likelihood of being studies of suicide risk and found that with the offender (robberies, burglaries, injured. Not having a gun does not access to a firearm increased the odds assaults, etc.), the victim used a gun to render potential victims of crime of suicide by a ratio of 3.24-to-1 (Ang- threaten or attack the perpetrator in either helpless or easy marks. lemyer et al. 2014). only 127 cases (0.9 percent). Hemen- way and Solnick also found that men 4. Firearms Are Not Very Effective at and women were equally likely to be the A Dangerous Myth Deterring Crime. victims of contact crimes, but men were In 2012, the U.S. gun industry was One of the most popular argu- three times more likely to use a gun in estimated to be worth $31.8 billion ments in favor of firearm ownership is self-defense. In over 300 cases of sexual per year (Velasco 2012). If the recent that guns are useful for self-defense in assault, there was not a single incident Gallup poll is an accurate measure criminal encounters. A frequently cited of self-defense gun use. of why people purchase guns, a large study by Gary Kleck and Marc Gertz For those who used a gun in self-de- part of the industry’s profits are based (1995) estimated that Americans used fense, the chances of being injured in on the false belief that owning a gun guns for self-defense approximately 2.5 the incident (10.9 percent) were es- makes you safer—that a pistol in the million times per year. This figure has sentially equal to those who took no drawer will protect you from all the been widely criticized, and more recent action at all (11.0 percent). There was bad guys out in the dark. This is not studies using superior methodologies some evidence that the use of a firearm the first or only industry to profit by have painted a very different picture. resulted in less loss of property, but spreading false beliefs, but it is hard to

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 29 [ BEHAVIOR AND BELIEF STUART VYSE

imagine one where the public health was posted on the magazine’s Facebook online at www.washingtonpost.com/news/ to-your-health/wp/2015/12/02/hours-be- costs are as high. page the same day. As evidence of fore-san-bernardino-mass-shooting-doc- In fact, gun owners would be less America’s deeply divided beliefs about tors-were-on-capitol-hill-petitioning-con- likely to be victims of homicide and guns, the article proceeded to draw gress-to-lift-ban-on-gun-violence-research/. especially suicide if they got rid of heavy comment from readers on both Ferris, Sarah. 2015. House Dems lose fight to nix gun research ban in budget. The Hill their guns. In addition, taking no ac- sides of the issue. (December 16). Available online at thehill. tion during a criminal encounter would Many favorable comments welcomed com/policy/healthcare/263404-house-dems- make them no more likely to be injured the application of science to a fraught lose-fight-to-nix-gun-research-ban-in-bud- get. than if they used a gun. and highly politicized topic. Hemenway, David, and Sara J. Solnick. 2015. It is easy to understand the emotional Critical comments came in many The epidemiology of self-defense gun appeal. I am quite certain my gun-own- forms. Some either missed or denied the use: Evidence from the National Crime ing friend feels safer. Psychological re- basic message of the article, such as this Victimization Surveys 2007–2011. Preventive Medicine 79: 22–27. search is replete with examples of how comment: “But when you HAVE a gun, Jamieson, Christine. 2013. Gun violence emotion and intuition can lead us astray. you do have some measure of protec- research: History of the federal funding When asked what one thing he would tion for yourself and those around you. freeze. Psychological Science Agenda (February). Avail able online at www.apa.org/science/ eliminate if he had a magic wand, Nobel Without, you have nothing but laws to about/psa/2013/02/gun-violence.aspx. Prize–winning psychologist Daniel keep you safe.” Overwhelming evidence Kellermann, Arthur L., Fredrick P. Rivara, Kahneman said “overconfidence.” The contradicts this viewpoint. Norman B. Rushforth, et al. 1993. Gun kind of overconfidence that makes gov- Other pro-gun comments were ownership as a risk factor for homicide in the home. New England Journal of Medicine If you care about your ernments think wars will be easily won aimed at challenging the studies them- 329(15): 1084–1091. and makes investors believe that housing selves—a difficult task given the weight Kleck, G., and M. Gertz. 1995. Armed resis- safety and the safety prices will always go up (Shariatmadari and consistency of the findings—or tried tance to crime: The prevalence and nature of self-defense with a gun. Journal of Criminal of your loved ones, and Kahneman 2015). to argue that gun controls will not work. Law & Criminology 86(1): 150–187. get rid of your guns. Many gun owners undoubtedly suf- Gun control is a different and far National Center for Health Statistics. 2015. fer from overconfidence, too. Thanks more complicated issue. There is ev- Deaths: Final data for 2013. Available online to a well-funded advertising campaign, idence to support the view that homi- at www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr64/ nvsr64_02.pdf. they have a particular image of how a cides and suicides can be reduced by lim- Shariatmadari, David, and Daniel Kahneman. gun would affect any future conflicts in iting access to firearms, but I will save 2015. What would I eliminate if I had a their homes. They have been told that that more politicalized topic for another magic wand? Overconfidence. (July 18). Available online at www.the “the only thing that stops a bad guy with day. In this article, I took a more direct guardian.com/books/2015/jul/18/daniel- a gun is a good guy with a gun.” But of approach by addressing a core belief of kahneman-books-interview. course, real life is not a melodrama with gun ownership. The majority of gun Swift, Art. 2013. Personal safety top reason easily identifiable good guys and bad owners say they buy their guns for pro- Americans own guns today. Gallup.com (October 28). Available at www.gallup. guys. Most of the perpetrators of vio- tection, when the evidence suggests that com/poll/165605/personal-safety-top-rea- lence are not strangers coming in from they would be better protected by mak- son-americans-own-guns-today.aspx. the darkness. ing sure there are no firearms in their Velasco, Shuyler. 2012. US gun industry is thriving. Seven key figures. Christian Science It is likely that many gun owners homes—by not being gun owners. The Monitor (December 17). Available online at also discount the possibility that they or belief that guns protect is a false one, www.csmonitor.com/Business/2012/1217/ someone in their home will become sui- and the persistence of that false belief US-gun-industry-is-thriving.-Seven-key- cidal in the future and, as a result, don’t has cost us thousands of lives. figures/31.8-billion. consider the implications of having a References Stuart Vyse is a psychologist and author gun in the drawer when that happens. of Believing in Magic: The Psychology of It is easy to assume that the negative Anglemyer, Andrew, Tara Horvath, and George Rutherford. 2014. The accessibility of fire- Superstition, which won the William James consequences of gun ownership “would arms and risk for suicide and homicide Book Award of the American Psychological victimization among household members: A never happen to me.” Many gun owners Association. He is also author of Going undoubtedly believe they can beat the systematic review and meta-analysis. Annals of Internal Medicine 160(2): 101–110. Broke: Why Americans Can’t Hold on to odds because they are careful and wise, Bertrand, Natasha. 2015. Congress quietly Their Money. As an expert on irrational but the evidence is clear. If you care renewed a ban on gun-violence research. behavior, he is frequently quoted in the about your safety and the safety of your Business Insider (July 7). Available online I at www.businessinsider.com/congressional- press and has made appearances on CNN loved ones, get rid of your guns. ban-on-gun-violence-research-rewnewed- International, the PBS NewsHour, and 2015-7. NPR’s Science Friday. He is a fellow of the Author’s Note: This article first appeared Dennis, Brady. 2015. Hours before San Bernardino shooting, doctors urged Congress Committee for Skeptical Inquiry. He can on the S I website to lift funding ban on gun violence research. csicop.org on December 16, 2015, and Washington Post (December 2). Available be found on Twitter at @stuartvyse.

30 Volume 40 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer [ SKEPTICAL INQUIREE BENJAMIN RADFORD Benjamin Radford is a research fellow at the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry and author or coauthor of seven books, including Mysterious : Miracles, Magic, and Monsters in the Land of Enchantment.

Cyptozoology and Global Warming

Could climate change have an impact on unknown creatures, such as the : chupacabra or Bigfoot, or lead to more mysterious creature sightings? Q —T. Dokoupil

Beginning with the areas: “Down here, animals don’t of fur before they became monstrously caveat that none of die of mange, because the tempera- hairless and unrecognizable, but those these animals are tures are warm enough. Mange is animals are living with the disease lon- very common in colder areas, in fact : known to exist, yes. ger due to global warming. There are wolves are getting it in Montana If these creatures right now, and in North Dakota at least two “monsters” that this pro- A are real, they are foxes get it. Up there it’s fatal, so you cess applies to, the chupacabra and subject to the same never see animals with the severe the Montauk Monsters—as well as a environmental pressures as any other cases that we see in the southern handful of other hairless “mysterious” climates, because they don’t live long animals, known or unknown. enough for the mites to get that bad animals found dead across the country. Beginning with the chupacabra, to cause the hair to fall off. They However, the same issue doesn’t re- there are no official Fish and Wildlife die of hypothermia first.” This piece ally arise in the case of Bigfoot, since data on “weird hairless animals,” but I of the puzzle fits perfectly: animals we’ve never found one, dead or alive, follow all that pretty closely, and from (legendary or otherwise) that have hirsute or hairless. One science-based my research those sightings have in- lost their fur would be more vulner- approach to these animal mysteries is able to the elements, and therefore deed increased over the past decades. I live longer (and be more likely to to see how real-world events (climate explained why in my book Tracking the be seen) in warmer areas. If this is change, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, Chupacabra: true, then sightings of animals with etc.) affect known animals and extrap- advanced stages of mange should Feral dogs and coyotes must feed on olate that to unknown animals. For ex- be reported more often in northern something, and the many ranches ample, the 1980 Mt. St. Helens erup- areas as the climate warms. (Radford and farms in provide an obvi- 2011, 97) tion in Washington State—a hotbed of ous food source. Especially with Bigfoot reports—killed thousands of global temperatures increasing, the Thus climate change can indirectly animals yet not a single Bigfoot. This harsh desert terrain may drive ani- mals to prey on creatures they might but clearly lead to an increase in mon- doesn’t prove Bigfoot doesn’t exist not otherwise attack. There’s also a ster sightings, particularly of fur-bear- in the area, of course, but it does cast biological reason for the prevalence ing animals such as canids (dogs, coy- doubt on that assumption. You can cer- of chupacabra reports in Texas. Mike otes, foxes, wolves, etc.) and raccoons, tainly make reasonable scientific infer- Bowdenchuck, state director for which look very mysterious when in ences about how global warming would Texas Wildlife Services, explained why wild animals with severe cases the advanced stages of sarcoptic mange affect Bigfoot. of mange are more common in Texas when their hair falls out. Most animals In fact in 2009, a team of scientists and the southwest than other rural would die off from the cold due to lack from the University of Illinois did just

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 31 that using modeling programs: near future. Thus, given our model higher ground, presumably resulting in and available data, we might expect a higher concentration of sightings in Ecological niche models (ENMs) Bigfoot sightings to increase in fre- and species distribution models have quency in northern latitudes and at those areas, just as the ecological niche become increasingly popular tools higher elevations over the coming model suggested. Bigfoot, as a presum- for predicting the geographic ranges years. (Lozier et al. 2009, 3) ably unclothed, poorly sheltered man- of species and have been important like endothermic animal, would not be for conservation . . . for predicting Though the study data and meth- as affected by global warming as they changes in distribution from past odologies were valid—or at least as or future climatic events . . . and for valid as they can be given an inherently would by global cooling or a prolonged investigating patterns of speciation deep freeze. and niche divergence. . . . The basic questionable dataset—the authors note premise of the ENM approach is that the goal of the paper was not nec- Though to the general public Big- to predict the occurrence of species essarily to determine the parameters foot is often regarded as merely a on a landscape from geo-referenced of an extant Bigfoot population but mythical mysterious monster (if not site locality data and sets of spatially a joke), to many believers the crea- explicit environmental data layers that “as a tongue-in-cheek response to the are assumed to correlate with the increasing prevalence of ENMs in the tures are much more than that. They species’ range. (Lozier et al. 2009, 1) literature and in papers presented at are symbols of free spirits, untouched professional meetings . . . [and] to en- wilderness, and habitat loss. Concern courage careful scrutiny of specimen over the fate of Bigfoot as a presumed records prior to their use in ENMs” species is widespread among believers, (Lozier et al. 2009, 4). In other words, with a vigorous and venerable “capture it’s a gentle reminder to colleagues of or kill” debate (asking if it’s ethical to If and when Bigfoot the importance of valid data in models: kill a Bigfoot if it would finally prove to are proven to exist, garbage in, garbage out. the world that they exist) and periodic Ecological niche models aside, we attempts to have the mysterious bipedal these questions may can make reasonable predictions about monsters legally protected and even of- be socially important the effects of global warming on Big- ficially recognized as “indigenous peo- and environmentally foot populations. Though Bigfoot and ple” (see, for example, Radford 2013). Sasquatch sightings have been reported For many skeptics, discussions about relevant, but until then across North America, from Florida to what legal protections Bigfoot does or it is rather putting the New Jersey to New Mexico, by far the should have—or how climate change highest concentration of reports occur might affect them—is all a parlor game cart before the unicorn. in the Pacific Northwest. Under the of speculation. If and when Bigfoot are current climate predictions for North proven to exist, these questions may be America as projected by the Environ- socially important and environmentally mental Protection Agency (2014), the relevant, but until then it is rather put- effects of global warming will be most I ting the cart before the unicorn. noticeable in the Southeast and South- west portions of the United States, References Using a dataset including claimed where the heat waves (five or more con- Environmental Protection Agency. 2014. Future visual and auditory reports, as well as secutive days in which the temperature Climate Change. Updated March 4. Available online at http://www.epa.gov/climatechange claimed Bigfoot tracks collected be- reaches or exceeds 90 degrees Fahren- heit) are expected to more than double /science/future.html. tween 1944 and 2005 (N=646) as re- Lozier, J.D., P. Aniello, and M.J. Hickerson. ported by the Bigfoot Field Research- from sixty to 150 or more. However, 2009. Predicting the distribution of Sas- ers Organization, the team determined these are also the areas with the few- quatch in western North America: Anything est Bigfoot reports; if the animals are goes with ecological niche modelling. that: Journal of Biogeography 39(9): 1623–27. indeed more populous in wooded and As expected for montane organisms, Available online at http://www.qc.cuny.edu/ mountainous areas, the forest and al- Academics/Degrees/DMNS/Faculty%20 the model predicts Bigfoot to aban- Documents/Hickerson2.pdf. don lower altitudes and also to lose titude—their typical environment— would help moderate the effects of Radford, Benjamin. 2011. Tracking the habitat in coastal regions. However, Chupacabra: The Vampire Beast in Fact, this loss of habitat should be com- global warming. The bulk of Bigfoot Fiction, and Folklore. Albuquerque, New pensated by a large potential gain in reports are in the Pacific Northwest Mexico: University of New Mexico Press. the northern part of the Sasquatch where it’s fairly cool anyway, especially ———. 2013. ‘Bigfoot DNA’ study seeks Yeti range and in several other montane in the Cascades and Rocky Mountains. rights. Discovery News.com (February 14). areas (e.g., Arizona, Nevada, Utah), Available online at http://news.discovery. should such areas remain undis- If the area gets too warm for Bigfoot, com/adventure/bigfoot-dna-study-goal- turbed by human activity in the they can simply adapt by moving to govt-protection-for-creatures-130214.htm.

32 Volume 40 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer BIOLOGICAL RACE AND THE PROBLEM OF HUMAN DIVERSITY

Is biological race a mere myth or a troublesome fact better left unexplored? Some might suggest that, properly conceived, race is neither fable nor farce but rather a potential windfall for both science and society.

KENNETH W. KRAUSE

ome would see any notion of “race” recede unceremo- niously into the dustbin of history, taking its ignominious place alongside the likes of phlogiston theory, Ptolemaic geocentricism, or perhaps even the Iron Curtain or Spanish Inquisition. But race endures, in one form or another, de- spite its obnoxious—though apparently captivating—dossier. In 1942, anthropologist Ashley Montagu declared bio- logical race “man’s most dangerous myth,” and, since then, most scientists have consistently agreed (Montagu 1942). Nevertheless, to most Americans in particular, heritable race seems as obvious as the colors of their neighbors’ skins and the textures of their hair. So too have a determined minority of researchers al- ways found cause to dissent from the professional consensus. Here, I recount the latest popular skirmish over the science of race and attempt to reveal a victor, if there be one. Is biological race indeed a mere myth, as the academic majority has asked us to concede for more than seven decades? Is it instead a scandalously incon- venient truth—something we all know exists but, for whatever reasons, prefer not to discuss in polite company? Or is it possible that a far less familiar rendition of biological race could prove not only viable but both scientifically and socially valuable as well?

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 33 RACE REVIVED deed, biology] explains nothing, and that all cultures are of equal value.” But “the emerging truth,” he insists, “is “The productive questions pertain to how races more complicated.” Although the author sees individuals came to be and the extent to which racial variation as fundamentally similar, “their societies differ greatly has significant consequences with respect to func- in their structure, institutions, and their achievements.” tion in the modern world.” Indeed, “contrary to the central belief of multiculturalists, —Vincent Sarich and Frank Miele, 2004 Western culture has achieved far more” than others “be- I have no reason to believe that Nicholas Wade, longtime cause Europeans, probably for reasons of both evolution science editor and journalist, is a racist, if “racist” is to and history, have been able to create open and innova- mean believing in the inherent superiority of one human tive societies, starkly different from the default human race over any other. In fact, he expressly condemns the arrangements of tribalism or autocracy.” idea. But in the more limited and hopefully sober context of the science of race, Wade is a veritable maverick. Indeed, his conclusions that biological human races (or subspecies, for these purposes) do exist, and con- form generally to ancestral continental regions, appear remarkably more consistent with those of the general public. In his most recent and certainly controversial book, A Troublesome Inheritance: Genes, Race and Human History, Wade immediately acknowledges that the vast majority of both anthropologists and geneticists deny the existence of biological race (Wade 2014). Indeed, “race is a recent human invention,” according to the American Anthropological Association (2008), and a mere “social construct,” per the American Sociological Association Wade admits that much of his argument is specu- (2003). First to decode the human genome, Craig Ven- lative and has yet to be confirmed by hard, genetic ev- ter was also quick to announce during his White House idence. Nevertheless, he argues, “even a small shift in visit in 2000 that “the concept of race has no genetic or [genetically based] social behavior can generate a very scientific basis.” different kind of society,” perhaps one where trust and But academics especially are resistant to biological cooperation can extend beyond kin or the tribe—thus race, or the idea that “ is recent, copi- facilitating trade, for example, or one emphasizing pun- ous, and regional,” Wade contends, because they fear ishment for nonconformity—thus advancing rule-orienta- for their careers in left-leaning political atmospheres and because they tend to be “obsessed with intelligence” tion and isolationism, for instance. “It is reasonable to and paralyzed by the “unlikely” possibility that genetics assume,” the author writes, “that if traits like skin color might one day demonstrate the intellectual superiority of have evolved in a population, the same may be true of one major race over others. its social behavior.” According to Wade, “social scientists often write as if But what profound environmental conditions could they believe that culture explains everything and race [in- possibly have selected for more progressive behavioral

34 Volume 40 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer adaptations in some but not all populations? As the cli- non-modern societies frequently fails and why Western mate warmed following the Pleistocene Ice Age, Wade institutions, including democracy and free markets, can- reminds that the agricultural revolution erupted around not be readily transferred to (or forced upon) yet pre-in- 10,000 years ago among settlements in the Near East dustrial cultures. and China. Increased food production led to population So how many races have evolved in Wade’s estima- explosions, which in turn spurred social stratification, tion? Three major races—Caucasian, East Asian, and wealth disparities, and more frequent warfare. “Human African—resulted from an early migration out of Africa social behavior,” Wade says, “had to adapt to a suc- some 50,000 years ago, followed by a division between cession of makeovers as settled tribes developed into European and Asian populations shortly thereafter. chiefdoms, chiefdoms into archaic states, and states Quoting statistical geneticist Neil Risch, however, Wade into empires.” adds Pacific Islanders and Native Americans to the list Meanwhile, other societies transformed far less dra- because “population genetic studies have recapitulated matically. “For lack of good soils, favorable climate, the classical definition of races based on continental an- navigable rivers, and population pressures,” Wade ob- cestry” (Risch et al. 2002). serves, “Africa south of the Sahara remained largely To those who would object that there can be no bio- tribal throughout the historical period, as did Australia, logical race when so many thousands of people fail to fit Polynesia, and the circumpolar regions.” neatly into any discrete racial category, Wade responds, Citing economist Gregory Clark (2007), Wade then “to say there are no precise boundaries between races postulates that, during the period between 1200 and is like saying there are no square circles.” Races, he 1800 —twenty-four generations and “plenty of time adds, are merely “way stations” on the evolutionary road for a significant change in social behavior if the pres- toward speciation. Different variations of a species can sure of natural selection were sufficiently intense”—the arise where different populations face different selective English in particular evolved a greater tendency toward challenges, and have no special exemption from “bourgeoisification” and at least four traits—nonviolence, this process. However, the forces of differentiation can literacy, thrift, and patience—thus enabling them to es- reverse course when, as now, races intermingle due to cape the so-called “Malthusian trap,” in which agrarian increased migration, travel, and intermarriage. societies never quite learn to produce more than their expanding numbers can consume, and, finally, to lead the world into the Industrial Revolution. RACE REJECTED In other words, according to this author, modern in- dustrialized societies have emerged only as a result of “It is only tradition and shortsightedness that leads two evolved sets of behaviors—initially, those that favor us to think there are multiple distinct oceans.” broader trust and contribute to the breakdown of tribal- —Guy P. Harrison, 2010 ism and, subsequently, those that favor discipline and delayed gratification and lead to increased productivity If we inherit from our parents traits typically associated and wealth. On the other hand, says Wade, sub-Saha- with race, including skin, hair, and eye color, why do most ran Africans, for example, though well-adapted to their scientists insist that race is more social construct than unique environmental circumstances, generally never biological reality? Are they suffering from an acute case evolved traits necessary to move beyond tribalism. of political correctness, as Wade suggests, or perhaps Only an evolutionary explanation for this disparity, he a misplaced paternalistic desire to deceive the irre- concludes, can reveal, for instance, why foreign aid to sponsible and shortsighted masses for the greater good

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 35 of humanity? More ignoble things have happened, of which negatively affects fetal development. Even today, course, even within scientific communities. But accord- the ancestral variant of the MC1R gene, conferring high ing to geneticist Daniel J. Fairbanks, the denial of biolog- skin pigmentation, is carried uniformly among native Af- ical race is all about the evidence. ricans. In his new book, Everyone Is African: How Science But around 30,000 years ago, Fairbanks notes, long Explodes the Myth of Race, Fairbanks points out that, after our species had first ventured out of Africa into the although large-scale analyses of human DNA have re- Caucasus region, a new variant appeared. KITLG evolved cently unleashed a deluge of detailed genetic informa- in this population prior to the European-Asian split to re- tion, such analyses have so far failed to reveal discrete duce pigmentation and facilitate vitamin D absorption in genetic boundaries along traditional lines of racial clas- regions of diminished sunlight. Some 15,000 years later, sification (Fairbanks 2015). “What they do reveal,” he however, another variant, SLC24A5, evolved by selec- argues, “are complex and fascinating ancestral back- tive sweep as one group migrated westward into Europe. grounds that mirror known historical immigration, both Extremely rare in other native populations, nearly 100 ancient and modern.” percent of modern native Europeans carry this variant. In 1972, Harvard geneticist Richard Lewontin ana- On the other hand, as their assorted skin tones demon- lyzed seventeen different genes among seven groups strate, African Americans and Caribbean Americans classified by geographic origin. He famously discovered carry two copies of an ancestral variant, two copies of that subjects within racial groups varied more among the SLC24A5 variant, or one of each. Asians, by con- themselves than their overall group varied from other trast, developed their own pigment-reducing variants—of groups and concluded that there exists virtually no ge- the OCA2 gene, for example—via convergent evolution, netic or taxonomic significance to racial classifications whereby similar phenotypic traits result independently (Lewontin 1972). But Lewontin’s word on the subject among different populations due to similar environmen- was by no means the last. Later characterizing his con- tal pressures. clusion as “Lewontin’s Fallacy,” for example, Cambridge So how can biology support the traditional, or “folk,” geneticist A.W.F. Edwards reminded us how easy it is to notion of race when the genetic signatures of that no- predict race simply by inspecting people’s genes (Ed- tion’s most relied upon trait—that is, skin color—are so wards 2003). diverse among populations sharing the same or a sim- So who was right? Both of them were, according to ilar degree of skin pigmentation? Fairbanks judges the geneticist Lynn Jorde and anthropologist Stephen Wood- idea utterly bankrupt “in light of the obvious fact that ing. Summarizing several large-scale studies on the topic actual variation for skin color in humans does not fall in 2004, they confirmed Lewontin’s finding that about into discrete classes” but rather “ranges from intense 85–90 percent of all human genetic variation exists to little pigmentation in continuously varying gradations” within continental groups, while only 10–15 percent ex- (Fairbanks 2015). ists between them (Jorde and Wooding 2004). Even so, To Wade, Fairbanks offers the following reply: “Tradi- as Edwards had insisted, they were also able to assign tional racial classifications constitute an oversimplified all native European, East Asian, and sub-Saharan African way to represent the distribution of genetic variation subjects to their continent of origin using DNA alone. among the people of the world. Mutations have been In the end, however, Jorde and Wooding showed that creating new DNA variants throughout human history, geographically intermediate populations—South Indians, and the notion that a small proportion of them define for example—did not fit neatly into commonly conceived human races fails to recognize the complex nature of racial categories. “Ancestry,” they concluded, was “a their distribution” (Fairbanks 2015). more subtle and complex description” of one’s genetic makeup than “race.” Fairbanks concurs. Humans have been highly mo- A SEVERE RESPONSE bile for thousands of years, he notes. As a result, our biological variation “is complex, overlapping, and more “I use the term scientific racism to refer to scientists who continuous than discrete.” When one analyzes DNA from continue to believe that race is a biological reality.” a geographically broad and truly representative sample, —Robert Wald Sussman, 2014 the author surmises, “the notion of discrete racial bound- aries disappears.” Since neither author disputes the absence of completely Nor are the genetic signatures of typically conceived discrete racial categories, one could argue that part of racial traits always consistent between populations na- the battle is really one over mere semantics, if not poli- tive to different geographic regions. Consider skin color, tics. Regardless, critical aspects of Wade’s analysis were for example. We know, of course, that the first quickly and sharply criticized by several well-respected sapiens inherited dark skin previously evolved in Africa researchers. to protect against sun exposure and folate degradation, The former president of the American Anthropologi-

36 Volume 40 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer cal Association and co-drafter of its statement on race, to Raff, rejected as a racial category. In the end, she con- Alan Goodman, for example, argues that Wade’s “spec- cludes, Wade seems to prefer the number five “simply ulations follow from misunderstandings about most ev- because it matches his pre-conceived notions of what erything, including the idea of race, evolution and gene race should be.” action, culture and institutions, and most fundamen- Interestingly, when Rosenberg et al. subsequently ex- tally, the scientific process” (Goodman 2014). Indeed, panded their dataset to include additional genetic mark- he compares Wade’s book to the most maligned texts ers for the same population samples, Structure simply on race ever published, including Madison Grant’s 1916 rejected the Kalesh and decided instead that one of The Passing of the Great Race, Arthur Jenson’s 1969 Wade’s five human races, the Native Americans, should paper proposing racial intelligence differences, and Her- be split into two clusters (Rosenberg et al. 2005). In any rnstein and Murray’s 1994 The Bell Curve. event, Rosenberg et al. expressly warned in their second But Wade’s “biggest error,” according to Goodman, paper that Structure’s results “should not be taken as “is his inability to separate the data on human variation evidence of [their] support of any particular concept of from race.” He mistakenly assumes, in other words, “that ‘biological race.’” all he sees is due to genes” and that culture means little Structure was able to generate discrete clusters from to nothing. A “mix of mysticism and sociobiology,” he a very limited quantity of genetic variation, adds popu- continues, Wade’s simplistic view of human culture ig- lation geneticist Jeremy Yoder, because its results reflect nores the archaeological and historical fact that cultures what his colleagues refer to as isolation-by-distance, or are “open systems” that constantly change and interact. the fact that populations separated by sufficient geo- And although biological human variation can sometimes graphic expanses will display genetic distinctions even if fall into geographic patterns, Goodman emphasizes, our intimately connected through migration and interbreed- centuries-long attempt to force all such variation into ra- ing (Yoder 2014). In reality, however, human genetic cial categories has failed miserably. variation is clinal, or gradual in transition between such populations. In simpler terms, people living closer to- gether tend to be more closely related than those living farther apart. In his review of Wade’s A Troublesome Inheritance, biological anthropologist Greg Laden admits that human races might have existed in the past and could emerge at some point in the future (Laden 2014). He also concedes that “genes undoubtedly do underlie human behavior in countless ways.” Nevertheless, he argues, Wade’s “fash- ionable” hypothesis proposing the genetic underpinnings of racially-based behaviors remains groundless. “There is simply not an accepted list of alleles,” Laden writes, “that account for behavioral variation.” , by contrast, can be divided into genet- ically-based subspecies (or races). Their genetic diversity has proven much greater than ours, and they demon- Characterizing Wade’s analysis similarly as a “spec- strate considerable cultural variation as well. Even so, tacular failure of logic,” population geneticist Jennifer Laden points out, scientists have so far been unable to Raff takes special issue with the author’s attempt to clus- sort cultural variation among chimps according to their ter human genetic variation into five or, really, any given subspecies. So if biologically-based races cannot explain number of races (Raff 2014). To do so, Wade relied in cultural differences among chimpanzees, despite their part on a 2002 study featuring a program called Struc- superior genetic diversity as a species, why would any- ture, which is used to group people across the globe one presume the opposite of humans? based on genetic similarities (Rosenberg et al. 2002). None of which is to imply that every review of Wade And, indeed, when Rosenberg et al. asked Structure to has been entirely negative. Conservative journalist An- bunch genetic data into five major groups, it produced thony Daniels (a.k.a. Theodore Dalrymple), for example, clusters conforming to the continents. praises the author lavishly as a “courageous man . . . But, as Raff observes, the program was capable of di- who dares raise his head above the intellectual parapet” viding the data into any number of clusters, up to twenty (Daniels 2014). While judging Wade’s arguments mostly in this case, depending on the researchers’ pre-specified unconvincing, he nevertheless defends his right to pub- criteria. When asked for six groups, for example, Struc- lish them: “That the concept of race has been used to ture provided an additional “major” cluster, the Kalash of justify the most hideous of crimes should no more inhibit northwestern Pakistan—which Wade arbitrarily, according us from examining it dispassionately . . . than the fact

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 37 that economic egalitarianism has been used to justify it is “generally unwise to assume that every apparent crimes just as hideous. . . .” difference . . . has a biological cause.” Nonetheless, he Similarly, political scientist and coauthor of The Bell concluded, recognizing human races “is only recognizing Curve Charles Murray warned readers of the social sci- a biological fact”: “Geographic groups of humans, what ence “orthodoxy’s” then-impending attempt to “not just biologists call races, tend to differ from each other in refute” Wade’s analysis “but to discredit it utterly—to mean differences and sometimes even in specific sin- make people embarrassed to be seen purchasing it in gle genes. But when it comes to the capacities that are public” (Murray 2014). “It is unhelpful,” Murray predicts, required for the optimal functioning of our society, I am “for social scientists and the media to continue to pro- sure that any racial group can be matched by that of claim that ‘race is a social construct’” when “the problem some individual in another racial group. This is what pop- facing us down the road is the increasing rate at which ulation analysis reveals.” the technical literature reports new links between specific So how might one rescue biological race from the genes and specific traits.” Although “we don’t yet know present-day miasma of popular imparsimony and pro- what the genetically significant racial differences will turn fessional denialism, perhaps even to the advancement out to be,” Murray contends, “we have to expect that of science and benefit of society? Evolutionary biologist they will be many.” and professor of science philosophy Massimo Pigliucci Perhaps; perhaps not. But race is clearly problem- thinks he has an answer. atic from a biological perspective—at least as Wade and many before him have imagined it. Humans do not sort neatly into separate genetic categories or into a handful of continentally-based groups. Nor have we discovered sufficient evidence to suggest that human behaviors match to known patterns of genetic diversity. None- theless, because no “is” ever implies an “ought,” the cultural past should never define, let alone restrain, the scientific present.

CHARACTERIZING BIOLOGICAL DIVERSITY

“Instead of wasting our time ‘refuting’ straw-man positions dredged from a distant past or from fiction, we should deal with the strongest contemporary attempts to rehabilitate race that are scientifically respectable More than a decade ago, he and colleague Jonathan and genetically informed.” Kaplan proposed that “the best way of making sense of —Neven Sesardic, 2010 systematic variation within the human species is likely to rely on the ecotypic conception of biological races” To this somewhat belated point, I have avoided the (Pigliucci and Kaplan 2003). Ecotypes, they specify, task of defining “biological race,” in large measure are “functional-ecological entities” genetically adapted because no single definition has achieved widespread to certain environments and distinguished from one an- acceptance. In any event, the preeminent evolutionary other based on “many or a very few genetic differences.” biologist Ernst Mayr once described “geographic race” Consistent with clinal variation, ecotypes are not always generally as “an aggregate of phenotypically similar pop- phylogenetically distinct, and gene flow between them ulations of a species inhabiting a geographic subdivision is common. Thus, a single population might consist of of the range of that species and differing taxonomically many overlapping ecotypes. from other populations of that species” (Mayr 2002). A All of which is far more descriptive of human evolution “human race,” he added, “consists of the descendants than even the otherwise agreeable notion of “ancestry,” of a once-isolated geographic population primarily for example. For Pigliucci and Kaplan, the question of adapted for the environmental conditions of their origi- human biological race turns not on whether there exists nal home country.” significant between-population variation overall, as Le- Sounds much like Wade, so far. But unlike Wade, wontin, for example, suggested, but rather on “whether Mayr firmly rejects any typological, essentialist, or folk there is [any] variation in genes associated with signif- approach to human race denying profuse variability and icant adaptive differences between populations.” As mistaking non-biological attributes—especially those such, if we accept an ecotypic description of race, “much implicating personality and behavior—for racial traits. of the evidence used to suggest that there are no bio- Accepting culture’s profound sway, Mayr warned that logically significant human races is, in fact, irrelevant.”

38 Volume 40 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer On the other hand, as Pigliucci observed more re- Fairbanks, D.J. 2015. Everyone Is African: How Science Explodes the cently, the ecotypic model implies the failure of folk race Myth of Race. Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books. Goodman, A. 2014. A Troublesome RacialSmog. Available online as well. First, “the same folk ‘race’ may have evolved at http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/05/23/a-troublesome independently several times,” as explained above in the -racial-smog/print; accessed November 17, 2015. context of skin color, “and be characterized by different Harrison, G.P. 2010. Race and Reality: What Everyone Should Know about Our Biological Diversity. Amherst, NY: Prometheus Books. genetic makeups” (Pigliucci 2013). Second, ecotypes Jorde, L.B. and S.P. Wooding. 2004. Genetic variation, classification are “only superficially different from each other because and ‘race.’ Nature Genetics 36(11): 528–33. they are usually selected for only a relatively small num- Laden, G. 2014. A Troubling Tome. Available online at http://www. ber of traits that are advantageous in certain environ- americanscientist.org/bookshelf/id.16216,content.true,css.print/ bookshelf.aspx; accessed November 16, 2015. ments.” In other words, the popular notion of the “black Lewontin, R. 1972. The apportionment of human diversity. Evolutionary race,” for example, centers on a scientifically incoher- Biology 6: 397. ent unit—one “defined by a mishmash of [a] small and Mayr, E. 2002. The biology of race and the concept of equality. superficial set of biological traits … and a convoluted Daedalus 131(1): 89–94. Montagu, A. 1942. Man’s Most Dangerous Myth: The Fallacy of Race. cultural history” (Pigliucci 2014). NY: Columbia University Press. So, while the essentialist and folk concepts of human Murray, C. 2014. Book Review: ‘A Troublesome Inheritance’ by Nicholas race can claim “no support in biology,” Pigliucci con- Wade: A Scientific Revolution Is Under Way—Upending One of Our Reigning Orthodoxies. Available online at http://www.wsj.com/ cludes, scientists “should not fall into the trap of claim- articles/SB1000142405270230338000457952148224786987 ing that there is no systematic variation within human 4; accessed November 19, 2015. populations of interest to biology.” Consider, for a mo- Pigliucci, M. 2013. What are we to make of the concept of race? ment, the context of competitive sports. While the com- Thoughts of a philosopher-scientist. Studies in History and Philosophy of Biological and Biomedical Sciences. 44: 272–77. mon notion that blacks are better runners than whites is ———. 2014. On the Biology of Race. Available online at http://www.sci- demonstrably false, some evidence does suggest that entiasalon.wordpress.com/2014/05/29/on-the-biology-of-race/; certain West Africans have a genetic edge as sprinters, accessed November 22, 2015. Pigliucci, M., and J. Kaplan. 2003. On the concept of biological race and and that certain East and North Africans possess an its applicability to humans. Philosophy of Science 70: 1161–1172. innate advantage as long-distance runners (Harrison Raff, J. 2014. Nicholas Wade and Race: Build ing a Scientific 2010). As the ecotypic perspective predicts, the most Façade. Available online at http://www.violentmetaphors. meaningful biological human races are likely far smaller com/2014/05/21/nicholas-wade-andrace-building- a-scientific-facade/; accessed November 16, 2015. and more numerous than their baseless essentialist and Risch, N., E. Burchard, E. Ziv, et al. 2002. Categorization of humans in folk counterparts (Pigliucci and Kaplan 2003). biomedical research: Genes, race, and disease. Genome Biology So, given the concept’s exceptionally sordid history, 3(7): 1–12. Rosenberg, N., J.K. Pritchard, J.L. Weber, et al. 2002. Genetic structure why not abandon every notion of human race, includ- of human populations. Science 298(5602): 2381–2385. ing the ecotypic version? Indeed, we might be wise to Rosenberg, N., M. Saurabh, S. Ramachandran, et al. 2005. Clines, avoid the term race altogether, as Pigliucci and Kaplan clusters, and the effect of study design on the inference of human acknowledge. But if a pattern of genetic variation is sci- population structure. PLOS Genetics 1(6): e70. Sarich, V., and F. Miele. 2004. Race: The Reality of Human Differences. entifically coherent and meaningful, it will likely prove Boulder, CO: Westview Press. valuable as well. Further study of ecotypes “could yield Sesardic, N. 2010. Race: A social deconstruction of a biological con- insights into our recent evolution,” the authors urge, “and cept. Biological Philosophy 25: 143–62. perhaps shed increased light onto the history of migra- Sussman, R.W. 2014. The Myth of Race: The Troubling Persistence of an Unscientific Idea. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. tions and gene flow.” By contrast, both the failure to re- Wade, N. 2014. A Troublesome Inheritance: Genes, Race and Human place the folk concept of race and the continued denial History. NY: Penguin Press. of meaningful patterns of human genetic variation have Yoder, J. 2014. How A Troublesome Inheritance Gets Human Genetics Wrong. Available online at http://www.molecularecologist. “hampered research into these areas, a situation from com/2014/05/troublesome-inheritance/; accessed November which neither biology nor social policy surely benefit.” I 16, 2015.

References American Anthropological Association. 2008. Race Continues to Define America. Available online at http://new.aaanet.org/pdf/upload/ Race-Continues-to-Define-America.pdf; accessed November 12, Kenneth W. Krause is a former trial 2015. and appellate attorney. He is a con- American Sociological Association. 2003. The Importance of Collecting tributing editor and science col- Data and Doing Social Scientific Research in Race. Available online at http://www.asanet.org/images/press/docs/pdf/asa_race_ umnist for the S  I statement.pdf; accessed November 12, 2015. and science journalist at https:// Clark, G. 2007. A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. thedotingskeptic.wordpress.com. Daniels, A. 2014. Genetic Disorder. Available online at http://www.new- He contributes regularly to Skeptic criterion.com/articleprint.cfm/Genetic-disorder-7903; accessed and was a contributing editor and November 19, 2015. Edwards, A.W.F. 2003. Human genetic diversity: Lewontin’s fallacy. books columnist for the Humanist as well. Kenneth can BioEssays 25(8):798–801. be contacted at [email protected].

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 39 Skepticism and the Nature of the Mind A more empirically based understanding of the somewhat elusive nature of the mind can help the skeptical community comprehend and influence popular beliefs.

DANIEL A. VOGEL

riters and readers of the S I and sition, it is because that is something we are each good at doing and science of the broader skeptical community spend a great is good at doing. However, we tend to Wdeal of their time critiquing ideas they know to be be very poor at demolishing our own ideas, being aware of our own biases, false—superstitious, supernatural, fundamentalist, meta- and looking for evidence contradicting physical or religious, conspiratorial, magical, impossible, our cherished assumptions. and irrational. In doing so, however, skeptics may unwit- Science is without doubt our best means of discovering the truth. How- tingly advance a view of the mind as a rational agent shin- ever, we must not forget that truths are ing the light of evidence upon the dark shadow of supersti- also very personal. Many of the truths that we seek to tear apart likely fill a tion so as to send it scurrying to the closet of once-coveted life with meaning. A friend of mine oddities. Sadly, this is rarely the case, since each human who runs a punk rock label in Chicago mind stubbornly insists upon an unreason unique to itself fills his shelves with books on sup- posed ancient truths that have become but with qualities common to all. In fact, that is why the allegedly suppressed in our modern scientific method constitutes such a precious exercise in culture. While they are likely unable to find empirical support, I do notice discovering often shocking truths that minds alone were how they fill my friend’s life with a pro- typically not able to unearth and which, for many minds, found sense of magical power, wonder, seem to conflict with personal or cultural values. mystery, and rebellion against a world he views as excessively preoccupied I argue that the scientific evidence against views that comfort them. with materialist and consumerist val- about the functioning of our mental- The research of social psychologi- ues that seem cold and vacuous to him. ities suggests that they have so many cal scientist Jonathan Haidt (2012) has As a skeptic, I walk past his library in illusionary qualities of their own that tended to support the idea of David his home seriously and perhaps a little unreason is more fundamental to the Hume (1739) that our “reason is, and too prudishly concerned for his welfare, human constitution than reason (this ought only to be the slave of the pas- but as a friend I am very aware of the does not mean that reason is not im- sions,” in contradistinction with the richness this magical thinking brings to portant or that we are not capable of Platonist or Rationalist idea of reason his life and of the interesting conver- reasoning). Humans’ need for meaning in the control seat. Thus, the research sations it inspires in us both. I do not often competes successfully against a indicates that when we as skeptics look accept any of the myths found within need to secure tangible evidence for and for evidence to demolish another’s po- his tomes, but I admit to sharing with

40 Volume 40 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer him the hope of a wiser, more moral and philosophical future married in perfect balance with its scientific tradition, as represented by the beloved Vulcan Star Trek character Spock. I begin with the premise that our ability to think is filtered through, and indeed defined by, a delicate array of cor- tical organs that took millions of years to evolve without any consideration for the later emergence of a sentient central nervous system and thus fashioned less for its advantages as the seat of eventual consciousness so much as for its ability to survive in the wild (Ornstein 1992). Our awareness bears the constant imprint of our limbic emotional response system packed in along with the other realms of our roughly three or four millimeter thin cortex (Ledoux 1998). Thus, as we be- came not only aware but self-aware, our existential reality increasingly included the filter through which we think; from that moment onward it rendered our perception of the world around us less objectively “real” as we initially imag- ined, but more as a sort of weird illusion produced by that filter. (Dictionary.com defines “illusion” as “something that de- ceives by producing a false or misleading impression of reality.”) This became one of the fundamental existential realities we henceforth had to accept, or with which we had to cope, beyond those already well established philosophically and em- pirically (Koole et al. 2006). In short, “our universe” (meaning the only one we were likely to experience, discuss, describe, or measure) became transformed by our newly perceptive minds into a type of psychological con- struction of our experiencing, discussing, describing, and measuring, even though it was known to possess an existence of its own separate from our consciousness and even though it followed physical laws our most brilliant minds were to discover. It was after all in the nature of our mind, and not of the wider universe, to expe- rience, discuss, describe, and measure (Gardner 2008). In our wish to understand our “exter- nal” world we developed the scientific method, wondrous proof of our potential to reason, by which to help bypass our neurological filter. Despite centuries of

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 41 increasing understanding of ourselves, With major social ills to be ad- tion might bring to the complementary we remain fundamentally and stub- dressed, the findings of psychology fail table. Both right and left of center vot- bornly unscientific and persistent slaves to permeate the consciousness of activ- ers tend to view the opposing perspec- to our passions and prejudices (Hume ists, actors at all levels of governance, or tive as bizarre. 1739). political movements and parties. This Six core moral foundations are hy- Such a resistance to science may is despite the fact that scientists, hav- pothesized to have assisted human originate in children’s natural com- ing surveyed the scientific landscape by evolution and cultural adaptation and monsense intuitive thinking, partly analyzing the science and social science to underpin the political positions of the result of their budding neurology citation indexes of one million articles the liberal/left and conservative/right and partly that of cultural or parental in more than 7,121 journals, found that in varying degrees (Haidt 2012). Care/ influence found in societies that most the most referenced scientific endeav- harm was found empirically to be the promulgate nonscientific ideologies ors—the seven so-called “hub” sci- foundation most associated with the (Bloom and Weisberg 2007). ences—included psychology (Boyack liberal/left, with its emphasis upon con- While skeptics take the time to de- et al. 2005). cern for those who have been exploited molish the claims of UFO abductions Governments of the western world or maligned, and upon advocating for or Uri Geller’s bending of spoons, they are often in gridlock between right/ them or providing them with a means may not always be self-aware about the conservative or left/liberal parties de- to level the playing field. To some de- gree, the liberal also endorses two other moral foundations, namely liberty/op- pression (characterizing others or ideas While skeptics take the time to demolish in terms of whether subjects are tyran- nized) and fairness/cheating or propor- the claims of UFO abductions or Uri Geller’s tionality (treating others in proportion bending of spoons, they may not always be to their actions). The following three tend to be rarely adopted by the liberal self-aware about the ways in which their own but are more stringently stressed by the conservative: loyalty/betrayal (feelings minds may be as easily swayed psychologically of loyalty to your in-group, your fam- as those who read the National Enquirer. ily, your nation); authority/subversion (honoring tradition and legitimate au- thority); and sanctity/degradation or purity (avoiding actions that invoke ways in which their own minds may be spite research findings that the latter disgust). Interestingly, some research as easily swayed psychologically as those are more aroused by and attracted to (Haidt 2012) found that the conserva- who read the National Enquirer (if their appetitive images and the former more tive tended to stress all six equally. fantastical stories seem more bizarre to responsive to aversive motivations. Also in the political sphere, another us than the relatively mundane ones I The appetitive represents the move study has shown that well-known psy- am about to tell, this may in part reflect toward the pleasant and life-affirming, chological biases are at play in under- our lack of psychological sophistica- and the aversive signifies the defen- mining environmental action (Mar- tion). When it comes to politics, we are sive move away from the unpleasant iconti 2009). One such bias is the all familiar with its strange circus of acts and life-threatening. These tendencies distinct manner in which we respond competing for the seduction of the audi- likely both served important evolution- to highly personal concerns in con- ence by appealing to its emotional filters ary functions for all mammals, primar- tradistinction to those experienced as rather than to the use of reason. Indeed, ily in underpinning behaviors geared to more distant, peripheral, remote, and today we know that politicians often fail sustaining life. Thus, the appetitive or abstract. For example, a worry about to win over sufficiently large segments hedonistic today may develop political being mugged may elicit an image suf- of the public if they should insist upon positions advocating increasing spend- ficiently powerful as to create a surge a “dispassionate” view of the mind cen- ing on the arts and national parks, while of fear that may send you scurrying to tered upon facts and evidence to sup- the aversive may be more likely to advo- the other side of the road should some- port their positions (Weston 2007). It cate moral purity, harsh treatment for one be walking ahead on an otherwise is surreal that despite our understanding norm violators, and as a result support empty or darkened road. This is re- of this political psychology, we fail to increasing defense spending, barriers to ferred to as experience-based process- integrate this knowledge into our po- immigration, or tougher laws for crim- ing, a reaction that more remote phe- litical system the way we would incor- inals (Dodd et al. 2012). Social debate nomena such as climate change, islands porate any other scientific finding into has been seemingly immune to these of plastic twice the size of Texas float- our techniques, whatever they may be empirical findings, which would seem ing in our ocean, the death of coral reef, (medical, technological, or educational). to highlight the value that each posi- or the poisoning of the fish we eat do

42 Volume 40 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer not evoke in most of us. false belief that recent events occurred many realms of human endeavor, in- Our consciousness is precarious, further back in time than they did. Vi- cluding beliefs in the paranormal, errors characterized by chronic vulnerability erordt’s law stipulates that we tend to in eyewitness memory, and information and impermanence. Many of us totter overestimate the temporal length of processing in general. on with our minds more or less intact, short intervals and underestimate that I hope my fellow skeptics appreci- often without awareness of the numer- of longer ones. Also, the amount of ate the many follies that people believe ous periods along the way in which, motivation we apply to a task short- in as understandable phenomena in during illness or stress, we regressed to ens the perception of time spent on it, light of the fragile, unreasonable, and psychological dimensions dominated by and the intensity of our emotions slows even somewhat deceptive nature of the emotion and distorted thinking. down the perception of time. There are mind itself. And I do not imply that At present in the United States, 43.7 many other experiences that bend time these follies must necessarily go unchal- million adults or 18.6 percent of the in as facilely a trick on our perceptions lenged. Certainly such an appreciation adult population, and 20 percent of the as Geller bending spoons (Grondin of my fellow skeptics’ own unreason- child population, are struck by a men- 2008). able tendencies would, I think, dimin- tal imbalance of some kind (Substance An additional aspect of our seem- ish the unlikelihood of skepticism itself Abuse and Mental Health Services Ad- ingly chimerical existence is our failure becoming another fundamentalism and ministration 2013). to experience our own tendency to dis- would heighten the empathy we of the Besides those mental health crises, there is the additional fact that we all dream for five to twenty minutes several times a night; 95 percent of the dreams are forgotten because the frontal lobes Many of us totter on with our minds more or less that play a part in memory formation are inactive during REM sleep; 80 per- intact, often without awareness of the numerous cent of our dreams are in color; half periods along the way in which, during illness or of all dreamers report occasional lucid dreams in which they are aware that stress, we regressed to psychological dimensions they are dreaming, fully conscious of dominated by emotion and distorted thinking. the unconscious world they are at that time inhabiting. Thus, in a typical life- time, we dream for a total period add- ing up to six years (Robbins 2005). Beyond mental illness and dreams, sociate (the barring of major sources of scientific tradition should have for the we all spend periods of our waking lives emotional or mental experience from inanities that we all easily fall prey to. lost in fantasy and daydreams (Klinger awareness). We go about our lives as This is especially so when they serve 1990). That we as skeptics do not later though we were fully rational and not our need for meaning, which is known tend to brush off our “real” experiences frequently embedded in our illusion- to be a fundamental drive of the mind as “pure fantasy” says more about our ary proclivities. Some studies (Sharps (Koole et al. 2006), more important limited metaconsciousness (conscious- et al. 2006, 2007, 2010, 2014; Rudski than happiness itself (Baumeister et al. ness of consciousness) than it does and Edwards 2007) have demonstrated 2013). about our expanded ability to separate the illusion-promoting nature of sub- I believe that consciousness itself “fact” from “fiction.” clinical dissociation, meaning dissoci- possesses both illusionary and dimen- Consider also that even time itself ation not at the level of an emotional sional qualities; by illusionary I mean is experienced differently by different disorder (for example not as acute as that what we view as our world is such states of mind (Ornstein 1997). Some those with a history of trauma). Such a product of neurological and cultural scientists feel time’s objective existence relatively common dissociation at a processes that while it is obviously is validated by entropy (the universe’s subclinical level makes it more likely “real,” it is more “real” in the sense to decay) or have woven time and space that people will unquestioningly accept which humans experience their reality. together to form space-time, a con- their supernatural or magical beliefs. By dimensional I mean that while our tinuum or manifold that explains the This is in part the result of such disso- thoughts are inexorably products of a behaviors of all objects at especially the ciation’s contribution in strengthening physical brain, they do not conform as smallest and largest scales. Other sci- their perspective as opposed to thinking thoughts as readily as do other features entists consider time itself an illusion critically at the level of the unexamined of our universe to traditional physical (Davies 2002). details that compose it and that would laws nor to the three dimensions of The perception of time is as illusion- typically weaken the hold the belief space and one of time. ary as the mind itself may be deemed to may have. This understanding of sub- As an illustration, consider how be governed by such phenomena as the clinical dissociation has been applied to our most beautiful world is colorful

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 43 Human consciousness is our most defining Klinger, E. 1990. Daydreaming. Los Angeles: Tarcher. quality, and I humbly advance the suggestion that Koole, S., J. Greenberg, and T. Pyszczynski. 2006. Introducing science to the psychology awareness of its illusionary and dimensional natures of the soul. Current Directions in Psychological Science 15(5): 212–216. alters the nature of the world that we had previously Ledoux, J. 1998. The Emotional Brain: The Mysterious Underpinnings of Emotional Life. known: what we make of it, how we understand it, New York: Simon and Schuster. Mariconti, C. 2009. Understanding the dis- how we interact with it. connect on global warming: Research on risk sheds light on environmental inaction. Observer 22(2): 16–19. Ornstein, R. 1992. The Evolution of Consciousness: The Origins of the Way We Think. New York: Simon and Schuster. ———. 1997. On the Experience of Time. New York: Westview Press. Robbins, P.R. 2005. Psychology of Dreams. only because of how rods and cones in isolation, choice-making), the more we Jefferson, North Carolina: McFarland and our eyes convey information about the may view ourselves as beings of con- Company. sciousness. Rudski, J., and A. Edwards. 2007. Malinowski wavelength of light to our occipital lobe goes to college: Factors influencing students’ that produces the color and the vision A deeper understanding of our use of ritual and superstition. Journal of most of us enjoy. In an alien species, psychological natures, one that more General Psychology. 134: 389–403. the light’s wavelength could just as well closely reflects what science teaches us Sharps, M., J. Matthew, and J. Asten. 2006. about our minds, should allow skeptics Cognition and belief in paranormal phe- be reproduced as sound, as pain, or not nomena: Gestalt/feature-intensive process- at all. The sound we make use of for to carve out our primary task of seek- ing theory and tendencies toward ADHD, speech and music is similarly a product ing truth with greater humility but also depression and dissociation. Journal of of how our physiology translates vibra- with greater success, since empathy Psychology. 1406: 579–590. and a very human understanding of the Sharps, M., A. Hess, and B. Ranes. 2007. tions of air and matter. The universe is Mindless decision-making and environmen- not itself of color or sound. Essentially, follies our strange minds are capable of tal issues: Gestalt/feature-intensive process- the world we all take for granted—as slipping into will enhance our abilities ing and contextual reasoning in environ- to reach others holding different per- mental decisions. Journal of Psychology 1415: filtered through our feelings, neurol- I spectives more effectively. 525–537. ogy, language, culture, personalities, Sharps, M., E. Newborg, S. Van Arsdall, et al. and biases—is a fundamentally human References 2010. Paranormal encounters as eyewitness phenomena: Psychological determinants of world rather than a fundamentally Baumeister, R.F., K.D. Vohs, J.L. Aaker, et al. atypical perceptual interpretations. Current “true” world. Thus, the mental experi- 2013. Some key differences between a happy Psychology 29: 320–327. ence itself is, in my own view, a unique life and a meaningful life. Journal of Positive Psychology 8:505–516. Sharps, M.J., W.L. Schuyler, and M.R. Herrera. dimension (meaning a unique facet of Bloom, P., and D. Weisberg. 2007. Childhood 2014. Remembrance of apocalypse past: The reality) within which we reside men- origins of adult resistance to science. Science psychology of true believers when nothing tally and within which we seek out the 316: 996–997. happens. S I 38(6): 54–58. Boyack, K., R. Klavans, and K. Börner. Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services truth. 2005. Mapping the backbone of science. Administration. 2013. Results From the 2012 Human consciousness is our most Scientometrics 643: 351–374. National Survey on Drug Use and Health: defining quality, and I humbly ad- Davies, P. 2002. That mysterious flow. Scientific Mental Health Findings. HHS Publication American 2873: 40–47. No. SMA 13–4805. Rockville, Maryland: vance the suggestion that awareness of Dodd, M., A. Balzer, C. Jacobs, et al. 2012. Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services its illusionary and dimensional natures The political left rolls with the good and the political right confronts the bad: Connecting Administration. alters the nature of the world that we physiology and cognition to preferences. Weston, D. 2007. The Political Brain: The Role had previously known: what we make Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of Emotion in Deciding the Fate of the Nation. of it, how we understand it, how we in- B 367: 640–649. New York: Public Affairs. Gardner, H. 2008. The Mind’s New Science: A teract with it. The more we understand History of the Cognitive Revolution. New (as psychology develops and becomes York: Basic Books. Ed). Daniel Vogel works as a clinical psychol- more integrated into human processes Grondin, S. ( 2008. Psychology of Time. Bingley, United Kingdom: Emerald Group ogist in a health care facility in Chicago, and life) about this mental universe we Publishing. serving the seriously ill and dying. He find ourselves in, which I propose is a Haidt, J. 2012. The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion. maintains an intimate proximity with fam- unique existential given we must accept New York: Pantheon. ily, books, and a variety of musical instru- in addition to the others we are more Hume, D. 1739. A Treatise of Human Nature. ments. familiar with (such as death, meaning, London: John Noon.

44 Volume 40 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer The Mote in Thy Brother’s Eye People suffer from an illusion of objectivity—detecting biases in others that they don’t see in themselves. Understanding this bias can lead us to appreciate that those who disagree with us may not be as mad as they might seem.

THOMAS GILOVICH and LEE ROSS

ne of the most consequential Supreme Court actions sanship (Balkin 2001). Justice Antonin Scalia has been even more dismissive in recent U.S. history was its 2000 decision in Bush of any such claim, telling an audience Ov. Gore. (Imagine how differently the United States at Wesleyan University to “get over it” (“Scalia: Get over it” 2012). Conserva- might have reacted to the September 11, 2001, attacks tive pundits, it should be noted, agreed on the World Trade Center if Gore had been president with Scalia and Thomas and, we sus- rather than Bush—no invasion of Iraq; almost certainly a pect, would contend that it was the four dissenting liberal justices whose opin- speedier and more determined effort to wean the United ions in the case had been influenced by States from dependence on oil from the Middle East; and their political leanings. a greater priority given to the development of renewable energy sources to curb climate change.)

The decision blocked a recount of reversed, if Gore were challenging a re- ballots in the exceptionally close race count ordered by a Republican Florida in Florida, handing the presidency to Supreme Court…[the majority] would George W. Bush. Critics were quick have reached for a startling and inno- to note that the 5–4 decision split vative principle of constitutional law to perfectly along the Court’s conserva- hand Gore the victory” (Stone 2001). tive-liberal lines. Many were outraged While most Democrats thought that the majority justices were suddenly the majority’s decision was tainted willing to insert federal authority in this by ideological and motivational bias, case despite their frequently expressed the five justices behind that opinion reservations about judicial activism insisted otherwise. They maintained

and their advocacy of states’ rights and that they were applying the law in an REUTERS/Larry Downing a narrow interpretation of the equal even-handed fashion. Justice Clarence Supporters of U.S. Vice President Al Gore and protection clause. As one legal scholar Thomas told a group of students in Texas Governor George W. Bush face off against observed, “I do not know a single per- Washington, D.C., that the decision one another December 11, 2000, in front of the son who believes that if the parties were was not in any way influenced by parti- U. S. Supreme Court

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 45 Although the majority’s decision Stated differently, we look inward realm where such reactions are most might seem remarkable and, depend- when contemplating whether our consequential—when citizens dis- ing on your political allegiances, per- own judgments are biased, and that agree about gun laws, abortion poli- haps even bizarre, the conservative inward search generally yields noth- cies, or the urgency of particular so- justices’ response to the accusation ing. Most of our biases are the prod- cial problems and challenges. In these of bias is anything but. People rarely uct of automatic processes that leave cases, each side is inclined to assume think they are biased. As easy as it is no telltale stains or odors. But when that it is the other’s stance that needs to see when other people are biased, considering whether someone else is explaining. It is the other side, op- it’s hard to see when we ourselves are. biased, we can’t look inside that per- posing partisans insist, whose views In short, we’re no different from the son’s head. Instead, we note what the reflect the influence of ideology, pro- majority in Bush v. Gore. Psycholo- person said or did and consider the paganda, and wishful thinking rather gists refer to this as the “bias blind- prevailing incentives that might have than sound reasoning and attention to spot.” The gospel of Matthew 7:3 in produced those statements or actions. the pertinent facts. This asymmetry, the King James Bible captures the By that analysis, it’s quite easy to see furthermore, is most likely to become phenomenon with the pointed ques- evidence of apparent bias in others. a source of conflict and mistrust when tion, “Why beholdest thou the mote The conviction that we see and the issue in question pits the interests that is in thy brother’s eye but con- experience things as they are, and of one group against those of another. siderest not the beam that is in thine that when others respond differently This asymmetry was laid bare by own eye?” it is their responses that need to be a study the two of us conducted with It’s not simply that we’re blind to explained, is not restricted to politi- one of our former students, Joyce our own biases because we’re defen- cal assessments. As the great come- Ehrlinger (Ehrlinger et al. 2005). sive or want to think well of ourselves. dian and social commentator George We told a sample of Cornell students Those motives exist, but they are not Carlin wryly observed, we tend to feel that the university was in the process of reviewing its affirmative action policies and, as part of that review effort, had assembled a student committee to provide input on any proposed changes. Each respon- The deeper problem is that when we introspect dent was then asked to evaluate the about why we think or feel the way we do, we find extent to which a Caucasian or mi- nority student’s input to the com- no phenomenological trace of self-interested bias. mittee would likely be biased versus enlightened by his or her ethnicity. They did so by checking the ap- propriate point on a continuum between “student’s ethnicity likely to detract from his or her ability to see the issues clearly” and “student’s the whole story. The deeper problem that those driving faster than us are ethnicity likely to enhance his or her is that when we introspect about why “maniacs” and those driving slower ability to see the issues clearly.” we think or feel the way we do, we are “idiots.” The same illusion of per- The results were straightforward find no phenomenological trace of sonal objectivity is apparent when dif- and telling. Both minority and Cau- self-interested bias. We experience ferent generations consider their own casian respondents claimed that the our thoughts and feelings as direct musical or sartorial preferences and other group’s race would get in the consequences of the pertinent facts— those of their elders or the younger way of the ability to see the issues as mandated by the merits of the rele- generation. It also rears its head when clearly. But neither group acknowl- vant arguments. We end up convinced someone asks if the thermostat can be edged that their own racial heritage that even though our conclusions are turned up because “it’s cold in here” would bias their judgment. In fact, in accord with our self-interest or the when we feel perfectly comfortable. the minority students thought that best interests of our group, self-inter- The immediate reaction is typically their own racial identity and ex- est played little if any role in how we to wonder what is it about them that perience—as well as those of their evaluated the evidence. We insist that is making them uncomfortable in an friends, family, and forerunners— it just happens that the most objective environment that feels so obviously were an essential source of insight conclusion is one that serves us (and satisfactory. into the issues at hand. people like us) best. But of course it is in the political This same pattern was found

46 Volume 40 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer when we asked varsity and intramu- doesn’t extend to other groups that seeing alternative views as the product ral athletes about a less emotionally suffer discrimination. of hearts and minds that are somehow charged issue—whether a new work- Similarly, liberals question whether defective or limited by a lack of reflec- out facility should be available to var- Nancy Reagan would have been such tion and relevant real world experience. sity athletes only or to the entire cam- an outspoken advocate of government In short, other people’s judgments are pus community. Both groups insisted support for stem cell research if her biased because they are different from that the other group’s views were more husband hadn’t suffered from Alzhei- our own. As the distinguished British biased by self-interest than their own, mer’s disease. Why doesn’t she see, philosopher Isaiah Berlin wrote as he and that their own status (as a varsity they wonder, that her stance is at odds reflected on the bitter lessons of the athlete or not) gave them a perspective with her husband’s oft-repeated jibe twentieth century: that was especially informative. So it is that “the nine most terrifying words Few things have done more harm not just that people tend to think they in the English language are, ‘I’m from than the belief on the part of indi- are less influenced by bias than others. the government and I’m here to help.’” viduals or groups (or tribes or states They are also inclined to think that Liberals also find it odd that Sarah or nations or churches) that he or she or they are in sole possession the lenses through which other people Palin would campaign on a platform of the truth, especially about how see the world are a source of distortion that emphasized reduced government to live, what to be and do—that and the lenses through which they see spending while championing increased those who differ from them are it are a source of enlightenment. federal spending on programs for dis- not merely mistaken, but wicked Thus, former Vice President Dick abled children—until they realize or mad: and need restraining or suppressing. It is terrible and dan- Cheney no doubt attributes his un- that she herself has a disabled child. gerous arrogance to believe that you characteristically tolerant views about The same could be said of the views alone are right, have a magical eye gay rights to the insight he has been of the conservative who has spent a which sees the truth, and that oth- able to achieve by having a lesbian night in prison, or the leftist who has ers cannot be right if they disagree. (Berlin 2001) daughter. But his conservative critics been mugged or harassed by Board of are certain that his views would be less Health inspectors when trying to open People are likely to claim bias on wrong-headed if not for this personal a restaurant. the part of others when the gap be- connection to the issue, and they won- If we see our own judgments as free tween their own views and those of der why he is not able to recognize this of bias—as not tainted by our expec- someone who disagrees with them obvious source of bias. Meanwhile, his tations, preferences, or overarching is most pronounced. This was very (more numerous) critics on the Left ideology but informed by our personal clearly demonstrated in a simple study wonder why his tolerance on this issue experiences—it is but a short step to the two of us conducted with Prince-

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 47 ton psychologist Emily Pronin (Pronin views expressed on Fox News, or con- It’s also hard to imagine a stance et al. 2004). We asked a large sample servatives complaining about what they more at variance with the wisdom of of research participants to first fill out see and hear on CNN (to say nothing another revered American and a man a survey indicating their positions on of what they would see and hear on known for being unusually open- various issues such as affirmative ac- more liberal media outlets). We found minded: Abraham Lincoln. Talking tion, capital punishment, and abortion that the more the other person’s views about a political opponent, Lincoln fa- rights, and how much they approved differed from the respondents’ own, mously remarked, “I don’t like the man, I of various prominent political figures the more they were chalked up to bias I must get to know him better.” and media sources. We then collected rather than rational considerations (the References these surveys and redistributed them shaded bars). Tellingly, the level of dis- at random to other participants. Next, agreement did not much influence the Balkin, J.M. 2001. Bush v. Gore and the bound- ary between law and politics. Yale Law we asked the participants to rate how degree to which participants felt their Journal 110: 1407. similar the views of the person whose own views reflected valid consider- Berlin, I. 2001. Notes on prejudice. The New questionnaire they had received were ations rather than bias (the unshaded York Review of Books (October 18). Available online at http://www.nybooks. to their own views. Finally, we asked bars). Nor did pronounced disagree- com/articles/2001/10/18/notes-on-preju- them to assess the extent to which they ment make our participants particu- dice/. felt that that person’s views, as well larly open to the possibility that they Ehrlinger, J., T. Gilovich, and Lee Ross. 2005. Peering into the bias blindspot: People’s as their own views, reflected various had been less than objective. On the assessments of bias in themselves and others. “considerations.” Some of the consid- contrary, when the disagreement was Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 31: erations listed were ones that are gen- especially great, participants not only 680–92. Farrand, M., ed. 1937. The Records of the Federal erally regarded as reasonable and valid, tended to be especially harsh in their Convention of 1787. Rev. ed. 4 vols. New such as “attention to fact,” “concern assessment of the other individual’s Haven and London: Yale University Press. with justice,” and appropriate attention views, they also tended to be especially Pronin, E., T. Gilovich, and L. Ross. 2004. Objectivity in the eye of the beholder: to “long-term consequences.” Others generous in how they assessed the ra- Divergent perceptions of bias in self versus specified particular biases such as “de- tionality of their own views. In all, it others. Psychological Review 111: 781–99. sire for peer approval,” “wishful think- is hard to imagine more direct support Scalia: Get over it. 2012. The Daily Beast. ing,” and “political correctness.” for Benjamin Franklin’s observation Available online at http://www.thedailybeast. com/cheats/2012/07/18/scalia-get-over-it The results, depicted in the accom- that “most men… think themselves in .html. panying figure, were clear and dra- possession of all truth, and that wher- Stone, G.R. 2001. From: Equal Protection? The matic. They also provide some perspec- ever others differ from them, it is so far Supreme Court’s Decision in Bush v. Gore. Delivered at the Federal Bar Association in tive when we see liberals rant about the error” (qtd. in Farrand 1937). Chicago on May 23, 2001. The University of Chicago. 12 Own Opinion Thomas Gilovich is professor of psychol-

s ogy at Cornell University and co-direc-

s tor of the Cornell Center for Behavioral ia 8 Others’s Opinions ason Economics and Decision Research. He is coauthor of Social Psychology and Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes, nce of b nce 4 and author of How We Know What Isn’t So. He is a fellow of the Committee for ce of valid re of valid ce Skeptical Inquiry. en 0 ived in ue ived Lee Ross is professor of psychology at Cor- ce nell University and cofounder of the Stan- d in u er ford Center on Conflict and Negotiations. ve -4 ei He is coauthor of The Person and the Sit-

rc uation and Human Inference. minus p Pe 0 1 2 3 4 -8 Level of Disagreement This article is based on material pre- sented in the authors’ book, The Wisest The shaded bars represent participants’ assessments of how much others’ opinions are influenced by valid, rational considerations minus how much they’re influenced by various sources of bias. One in the Room: How You Can Benefit The unshaded bars represent assessments of how much their own opinions are influenced by from Social Psychology’s Most Powerful rational considerations versus bias. (From Pronin et al. 2004.) Insights, published in December 2015 by Simon & Schuster.

48 Volume 40 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer A Numerate Life The man who brought us Innumeracy and touted the benefits of mathematical thinking begins his ‘anti-memoir’ by conveying concerns and questions we should have about biographies . . . or our own lives.

Excerpted by the author from A Numerate Life: A Mathematician Explores the Vagaries of Life, His Own and Probably Yours, published in November 2015 by Prometheus Books. JOHN ALLEN PAULOS

hether because of my natural temperament, my training as a mathematician, or a late midlife reck- Woning and reconsideration, I look on the whole bi- ographical endeavor, my own included, as a dubious one. Even George Washington’s signature line about cutting down the cherry tree, “I cannot tell a lie,” is probably flap- doodle. More likely he said, “No comment” or “I don’t recall the incident” or maybe “The tree was rotten anyway.” I tend to scoff when reading that a new biography has re- vealed that the great So-And-So always did X because (s)he secretly believed Y. I’m not particularly ornery, but I often react to such statements about the alleged actions or beliefs of well-known people with a silent That’s B.S. A more likely reaction if someone makes the claim directly just thinking about our own lives. The “arguably” is the burden of this book; to me is a polite, but pointed “How do you know that?” imparting a certain modicum of mathe- or even “How could anyone know that?” or, in the case of matical understanding and biographical autobiographies, “How could anyone remember that?” numeracy is its presumptuous goal. One of the first questions that comes Memories are often inaccurate or to write a quasi-memoir of my own, but to mind when considering a life is an fabricated, perspectives biased, “laws” quasi- here means “not so much.” abstract “What is its average length?” or and assumptions unfounded, contin- True to my doubts, what I’ve written perhaps a more visceral “How long have gencies unpredictable; even the very is a meta-memoir, even an anti-mem- I got?” Quite relevant is evolutionary notion of a self is suspect. (But like the oir. Employing ideas from mathemat- biologist Stephen Jay Gould’s article nutritionist who secretly enjoys candy ics (quite broadly and non-technically “The Median Isn’t the Message,” in and donuts, I’ve always enjoyed reading construed) as well as analytic philoso- which he describes his cancer diagnosis [auto]biographies, ranging from James phy and related realms, but requiring and the associated median life span of Boswell’s The Life of Samuel Johnson, no special background in mathematics, eight months that it allowed. But the LL.D. to Mary Karr’s Liars’ Club.) I’ve tried to convey some of the con- median, of course, is not the mean or Given my skepticism of the bi- cerns and questions most of us don’t, simple average of patients’ life spans; it ographical enterprise, it might seem but arguably should, have when reading is the life span shorter than which half I’ve taken a bold and/or foolhardy step biographies and memoirs or even when the patients survive and longer than

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 49 which the other half do. Moreover, dition for generating creative ideas. At our teeth, our blood—are starstuff, the statistical distribution of life spans times this habit of rubbing together has made out of the very same material as is right-skewed, meaning many peo- earned me a good number of eye rolls, the stars. As naturally occurring entities ple live considerably longer than the sometimes even a bit of vituperation. in the universe, we are, in a sense, also median as did Gould (twenty years). People don’t always like it when no- “mathstuff”—changing and developing Knowledge of statistics and distribu- tions or relations they hold dear have according to mathematically express- tions allayed his anxieties and, more reflections in domains such as mathe- ible relations, instantiating mathemat- generally, as I’ll try to show, mathemat- matics that they consider reductive or ical notions of all sorts, and illustrating ical knowledge can shed much-needed somehow inappropriate. mathematical principles from diverse light on many other life situations and That’s too bad considering that fields. “Mathstuff,” I maintain, is a de- life stories. mathematics is a most productive way fensible neologism since patterns are, at least to mathematicians, nonmate- Let me illustrate with a somewhat of looking at the world. The philoso- rial stuff. It’s thus eminently reason- disguised statistical point. Whatever pher Ludwig Wittgenstein once re- able to try to obtain an understanding else a biography may be, it is usually marked that he looked forward to the of this mathstuff of which, it can be considered to be a story, the story of day when philosophy disappeared as a maintained, we and everything else a person’s life. And probably people’s subject but all other subjects were ap- are made. In particular, how do these mathematical patterns express them- selves in our life stories?

Bias and Mindsets, People don’t always like it when notions Statistics and Biography I had a number of professors at or relations they hold dear have reflections in University of Wisconsin who, I was domains such as mathematics that they warned, were horrible; some were said to mumble, others were given to consider reductive or somehow inappropriate. excessive abstraction, a few constantly digressed. Many just lectured. When I enrolled in their courses despite these warnings, I was often surprised. Turns out I usually liked abstract, mumbling most common response to a story is a proached philosophically. I have a re- digressers. And I much preferred hear- tendency to suspend disbelief when lated but weaker wish for mathematics. ing a lecture from someone knowl- reading, hearing, or viewing one in I certainly don’t wish for it to disappear edgeable than listening to fellow stu- order not to spoil its enjoyment. “Let’s as a subject, but I do wish that it, too, dents getting together in study groups pretend. It’ll be fun.” This mindset is was more widely seen to be an adverb and giving their usually uninformed quite opposed to that prevailing in and that its insights and ideas could perspectives on the topic. Contrariwise, mathematics and science where peo- inform the approach to all other sub- I was often disappointed by those “fun” ple typically suspend belief in order jects, including biography. With this professors whom most deemed won- derful. The same phenomenon holds not to jump to conclusions until they as a partial motivation, I have over the for people about whom I’ve heard only have compelling evidence. “Wait. Why years written about the connections bad (or good) assessments that I find to should we believe that?” These two dif- between mathematics and humor, be baseless after meeting the people in ferent approaches are not unrelated to journalism, the stock market, analytic question. I sometimes still get annoyed different tolerances for false-positive philosophy, religion, and a number of at my own trustingness. and false-negative conclusions, which other topics (but not fish and bicycles). This, of course, is not a particularly I’ll elaborate on later. Not surprisingly, Nonobvious but significant points of unique realization. Everyone has expe- perhaps, the latter show-me tentative- correspondence almost always arise if rienced variants of it. One doesn’t have ness is the approach I will adopt here. one searches for them. to be too statistically savvy to know It’s in line with the bumper sticker that Here I hope to show that the points that comments and surveys that derive counsels: Don’t believe everything you of correspondence between mathemat- from only a dozen or so people are not think. ics and biography are, despite superfi- very reliable. Neither is it arcane math- I’ve always liked the idea of rubbing cial appearances, quite profound. Carl ematical knowledge that self-selected together incongruous subjects, which Sagan, the astronomer, skeptic, and sci- samples are not very likely to be rep- seems to me almost a necessary con- ence writer, wrote that we—our DNA, resentative of the population at large.

50 Volume 40 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer A small self-selected sample of peo- as laughable when someone claims of her written by him. Or come up ple responding to a television “poll” to be relating someone else’s verba- with your own incongruous pairs about more stringent gun control, tim (precise) conversations as well as of reciprocal biographers. The dif- for example, may very well arouse a their dates, locations, and contexts? ficulty of adopting the perspective disproportionate number of passion- Why are such elementary under- of a biographical subject’s perspec- ate NRA members and significantly standings and explanations seldom tive is suggested by the story of two skew the results. invoked in our reading of personal strangers walking on opposite sides Another example of wayward sta- profiles or full-scale biographies? of a river. One of them yells across, tistics in academe: Like many uni- Biographers (and, of course, autobi- “How do I get to the other side of the versities, mine requires that students ographers) select themselves in part river?” The second one answers, “You take a core survey course in mathe- because they resonate in one way or are on the other side of the river.” matics if they’re not going on in the another with the subject. They may Any story of adultery, to cite one subject. Passing the course requires interview many people about their last example, will read quite differ- that a student’s grade be at least a C-. subject, but even their choice of in- ently depending on which of four Suspecting that the number of C-’s terviewees is likely to be influenced natural biographers write it: the in- would be much larger than the num- by their biases. So are the questions jured spouse, the wandering spouse, ber of D+’s because of how crucial they ask, rephrasing them over and the outside lover, or a “neutral” ob- this small difference is, I decided to examine the number of C-’s and D+’s given in this course over the years for which I could find the records. Sure enough, I found that approx- imately eight hundred C-’s and one Why are such elementary understandings and hundred D+’s were awarded. Some- explanations seldom invoked in our reading of one might point out that the num- ber of D+’s should be lower than the personal profiles or full-scale biographies? number of C-’s simply as a result of the normal bell-shaped distribution with an average of C or so. This, however, cannot be the explanation, since the drop-off was so precipitous, eight times as many C-’s as D+’s. (The four hundred or so plain D’s over if they don’t get the answer they server. It’s interesting to imagine and roughly seven hundred F’s given want. Pick almost any potential bi- Madame Bovary from Charles Bo- out during this period indicate that ographical subject and ask ten peo- vary’s point of view. The fake 2007 general grade inflation was not the ple who know him or her what they newspaper headline in the Onion, a issue.) The reason was probably that, think of the person, and the responses satirical magazine, makes the same at the crucial cutoff between C- and will certainly be quite varied. Picking point: “Majority of Parents Abuse D+, the faculty were likely to give only eyewitnesses to events in a sub- Children, Children Report.” Despite students a bit of a break. Assigning ject’s life certainly doesn’t guarantee these obvious concerns, most people grades is not a cut-and-dried activity, truth either. Recall the trial lawyer’s assume biographies or magazine pro- and many professors seemed to have quip “The only thing worse than one files or even informal spoken descrip- given students the benefit of a doubt eyewitness is two eyewitnesses.” tions of a person are more or less ac- in these close calls rather than being Here’s a simple thought exper- curate. You might have inferred that blindly bound to rigid grading that is iment: consider just yourself as a this annoys me. inevitably somewhat arbitrary. subject and think of who in your Phrasing the issue in the jargon of To vary the examples a bit, con- background would write the most mathematical logic, I note that “is a sider the museum guard who claimed scathing biography of you, who biography of X” is a so-called unary that a dinosaur on exhibit was would write the most sympathetic predicate, and it would be preferable 70,000,009 years old. Asked how account (C- rather than D+ on the if it were replaced by the binary pred- he knew that, he said that he had scale of a whole life), and who would icate “is a biography of X written by been told it was 70,000,000 years old write the most clueless one. Or, if Y.” Perhaps it’s even more prudent when he’d been hired nine years be- it doesn’t hurt too much, imagine to consider ternary predicates: “is a fore. The precision would be laugh- a biography of Stephen Hawking biography of X written by Y at time able, but shouldn’t we find it almost written by Kim Kardashian and one Z.” An “autobiography of X,” by

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 51 contrast, really is a unary predicate un- tically robust. light of new evidence. For example, if a less you happen to be a schizophrenic. One other quite significant, albeit fair coin (heads-tails, H-T) and a two- Comedian Steven Wright’s quip that underappreciated, point about statis- headed coin (H-H) are on a table and he was writing an unauthorized auto- tics in the presentation of biographies we choose one of them, the probabil- biography also comes to mind. bears repeating. As I mentioned earlier, ity we choose the fair coin is 1/2. But Ideally nasty biographies should an important aspect of a story is that if after we’ve chosen a coin, we flip it give a rough measure of the ratio of there is a tendency to suspend disbe- three times and obtain three consecu- research undertaken to secrets uncov- lief while seeing, reading, or hearing it tive heads, Bayes’s theorem tells us the ered. Laudatory ones as well should so as to not spoil its enjoyment. “Let’s probability that we chose the fair coin provide a ratio of the time taken to the pretend there really is a monster like shrinks to 1/9. positive tidbits found. Autobiographies this.” Loosely paraphrased in statistical This is, of course, much harder to should be scrutinized for any traces of parlance, this means that one risks a do with more nebulous stories and bi- the Lake Wobegon effect, whereby the so-called Type I error (a false-positive); ographies, but do biographers make author and everyone closely associated that is, saying an important incident or much of an attempt to indicate how they come to their initial evaluations of a subject or how they’ve changed their Contemporary biographies are devoid of minds about him or her in the light of new documentary evidence? I doubt it. miracles but still contain too many exploits Certainly excusable, but why make so and adventures that seem considerably little use of possibly relevant mathe- matical and scientific tools? less likely than their nonoccurrence. One proto-Bayesian, the empiricist Scottish philosopher David Hume, un- derlined the importance of considering the probability of supporting evidence when he questioned the authority of with him or her is above average. The phenomenon occurred that really did religious hearsay: one shouldn’t trust problem, of course, is that if one looks not. This is not the situation in statis- the supposed evidence for a miracle, he hard enough, one will likely find what tical or scientific contexts where one argued, unless it would be even more one is looking for. We’re all subject to typically suspends belief so as to not miraculous if the report were untrue. confirmation bias, the tendency to look be fooled. “How do we know that?” In In ancient times, biographies of saints largely for confirmation of our hunches statistical parlance, one risks making a and kings were replete with miracles. and beliefs and rarely for disconfirma- so-called Type II error (a false-nega- Contemporary biographies are devoid tion, but perhaps few more so than bi- tive); that is, saying that an important of miracles but still contain too many ographers, who are often either in thrall incident or phenomenon that really did exploits and adventures that seem con- to their subjects or else detest them. occur did not. siderably less likely than their nonoc- Whether reading a life story or just Both biographers (storytellers gener- currence. It’s the same impulse, but I listening to a neighbor, we should be ally) and statisticians (scientists gener- attenuated. aware that very many of our beliefs and ally) wish to avoid both sorts of errors, attitudes are likely to be a consequence but biographers are a bit more careful of probabilistic misunderstanding and about not ruling things out, scientists a John Allen Paulos is statistical failings, bad sampling in par- bit more careful before admitting them. a professor of math- ticular. Most people, for example, be- What exists for the two sorts, their on- ematics at Temple come somewhat more reclusive when tology, is different; for storytellers it’s University and the au- depressed or otherwise behaving “ab- generally more baroque, for scientists thor of eight previous normally,” so these behaviors will be more bare-bones. To parody this differ- books, including the under-sampled and thus likely will play ence in mindset, we might say that out bestselling Innumer- a smaller role in their biographies than of five crises, storytellers predict seven acy and A Mathematician Reads the News- they do in their lives. Likewise, success- of them, and scientists predict three of paper. He is a fellow of the Committee for ful people (as well as their biographers) them—hyperbolic versus hypobolic, Skeptical Inquiry. This article is excerpted will tend to see a strong connection be- which should be a word. from the introduction and chapter 2 of his tween their personal qualities and their Type I and Type II errors are part new book A Numerate Life: A Mathemati- success even if they self-effacingly say of a complex of notions surrounding cian Explores the Vagaries of Life, His Own how lucky they’ve been; conversely, less Bayes’s theorem, an extremely seminal and Probably Yours (Prometheus Books, successful people will tend to see a weak result in probability theory that tells us November 2015). For further information, visit johnallenpaulos.com. connection. Neither viewpoint is statis- how to update our probabilities in the

52 Volume 40 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer Does the Scientific Method Have Biblical Origins? Two astounding claims of a Christian ministry are evaluated: that the scientific method originated in the Bible and old-Earth creationism is vastly superior to naturalistic evolution in predicting scientific discoveries.

BRIAN BOLTON

ugh Ross is the founder and charismatic leader of a accepts almost all other standard in- errantist biblical beliefs. Examples Christian ministry named Reasons to Believe (RTB) are the reality of a supernatural realm Hthat promotes old-Earth creationism. Although and interventionist miracles, the exis- RTB has been active for twenty-five years, it holds the tence of angels including Lucifer, the historic personage of Adam and Eve least popular creationist viewpoint among Christian fun- who lived in a God-designed Middle damentalists and the least known among Christians of all Eastern garden and are the ancestors of all people, the dominionist distinc- persuasions. This is most likely because RTB accommo- tion between “soulish” animals and dates three major conclusions from mainstream science. spiritual humans, eternal life for be- lievers in a “new creation” with God Specifically, RTB creationism and Jesus, and the doctrine that those stands apart from its creationist com- who reject Jesus will be “removed from petitors (Answers in Genesis, Dis- his presence.” covery Institute, and Institute for The predominant themes in Ross’s Creation Research) in adopting the presentation of RTB’s old-Earth cre- 13.5-billion-year-old universe and ationist conception are that it is de- the 4.5-billion-year-old Earth and rived from the Bible, it is scientifically rejecting the biblical worldwide flood. testable, and it is validated by virtu- Reasons to Believe maintains that ally all scientific knowledge. He also the Noachian Deluge was a regional claims that the Bible contains exclu- flood that drowned all humans (except sive truth and predicts scientific dis- eight), since they all lived in a small coveries thousands of years ahead of area of the planet. Also, while en- time. Unless otherwise indicated, all dorsing the Adam and Eve narrative, statements are from Ross’s 2009 book, Reasons to Believe dates the event to More Than a Theory: Revealing a Test- about 50,000 years ago. These RTB able Model for Creation. postulates are anathema to the dom- inant young-Earth proponents, be- RTB’s Biblical Foundation cause they contradict the literal truth of the Bible. Consequently, the other According to Ross, RTB creationism creationist groups consider RTB cre- is based on a theistic hypothesis that ationism to be unbiblical. is detailed in the Bible. Specifically, What is overlooked by the crit- the Bible’s explanation of the origin ics of RTB’s old-Earth viewpoint is and history of the universe and life on Hugh Ross, founder of Reasons to Believe. that Reasons to Believe unabashedly Earth are “predominantly literal” and

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 53 “reliably factual.” However, scripture evolution of humans from earlier pri- must be interpreted both literally and mates, preferring instead the Adam consistently, he says. and Eve story. Ross states explicitly that he is Ross’s admiration for the Bible building RTB’s case for the God of includes the denigration of all other the Bible as the designer and creator sacred books; he claims, for example, of all nature—a supernatural, caring, that the Bible contains more scientific intelligent designer—the one who information than any other religious embodies truth. Yet he continually text; the Bible uniquely predicts sci- invokes the terms scientific integrity, entific discoveries; only the Bible gives scientific credibility, scientific merit, sci- an abundance of specific, testable de- entific value, and scientifically testable tail about cosmic events; the Bible evidence when favorably characterizing alone exhorts readers to objectively RTB creationism and castigating his test before they believe; and therefore creationist adversaries who make ex- the Bible is the best choice to build actly the same theological assumptions a scientifically testable theistic model. he does. He even compares them to Did Ross review all two dozen of flat-Earth and geocentrism believers. the world’s sacred religious texts? Or After severely criticizing the other more appropriately, did he ask reli- biblical creationists for their lack of gious scholars from the other faith scientific credibility, Ross then con- traditions to provide their indepen- tradicts himself by rejecting the widely dent opinions about his assertions of accepted paleontological and molecu- biblical superiority? lar-genetic evidence documenting the Scientific or Biblical Method? Table 1: Six Bible Verses that Supposedly Established the Scientific Method Ross asserts that the scientific method could more accurately be called the Acts 17:11–12. The Berean Jews received the message with great eager- “biblical method.” He repeats this ness and examined the Scriptures every day to see if what claim in a dozen statements, includ- Paul said was true. As a result, many of them believed. ing five listed here:

Romans 12:2. Offer your bodies as a living sacrifice … do not conform • Scripture is the source of the scientific to the pattern of this world, but be transformed method. by the renewing of your mind. Then you will be able to • The scientific method originated in test and approve what God’s will is. Scripture and in the development of Reformation theology. 1 Thessalonians 5:21. Do not quench the Spirit. Do not treat prophecies with contempt but test them all; hold on to what is good, • The benefits of the scientific age reject every kind of evil. come from applying the testing pro- cess as set forth in Scripture. 1 John 4:1–2. Do not believe every spirit, but test the spirits to see • The Genesis creation account reflects whether they are from God, because many false prophets the classic scientific method. have gone out into the world. This is how you can recog- • Historically, Christianity gave birth nize the spirit of God: Every spirit that acknowledges that to both the scientific method and the Jesus Christ has come in the flesh is from God. scientific revolution. Revelation 2:2–3. I know that you cannot tolerate wicked people, that you Although these statements are clearly have tested those who claim to be apostles but are not, grandiose and some introduce extrane- and have found them false. You have persevered and have endured hardships. ous issues, Ross’s unequivocal claim is that the scientific method has its roots Job 34:4. Let us discern for ourselves what is right; let us learn in the Bible. What direct evidence does together what is good. Ross provide to support his claim? Quite appropriately, he cites six verses from All verses are from the New International Version (NIV), which is Ross’s preferred translation. scripture that he believes document his case. These are given in Table 1.

54 Volume 40 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer The scientific method relies on neering, geometry, hydraulics, math- ring to his own test of how well four observation, investigation, exper- ematics, mechanics, medicine, optics, creation and evolution viewpoints imentation, and quantification to pharmacology, physics, and zoology. predict future scientific discoveries. address questions about the natural Because the New Testament verses in He selected four competing models world. Ross’s six selected Bible verses Table 1 were written sometime after for his prediction test: RTB old- are concerned with false prophets, 50 , they could not have influenced Earth creationism, young-Earth cre- false apostles, Paul’s truthfulness, and the genesis of the scientific method. ationism, theistic evolution, and nat- God’s will. Four verses include the Ross also declared that Christian uralistic evolution. To accomplish the words test or tested but actually refer to scholars throughout church history objective of a comparative evaluation the examination of prophecies, spirit have asserted that the biblical narra- of predictability, the critical activity messages, and teachings by applying tives parallel the scientific method. was clearly the formulation of the some form of Christian litmus test. However, he does not provide a sin- predictions. Ross’s project consisted They do not constitute anything like gle illustration. Ross makes other of three steps. a scientific investigation involving similarly remarkable claims, such objective tests of observable phenom- as, “Every major Christian doctrine ena in the natural world. Ross simply is either founded upon or linked to equates the words test and tested with thousands of wide-ranging scientific There is no indication scientific methodology. details.” The verse from Job is puzzling. What should be recognized with re- that the Bible influenced God did collaborate with Satan in spect to Ross’s claim about the biblical in any way early Greek testing Job’s faith in a gruesome story origins of the scientific method is that that illustrates wanton cruelty. How- the ancient Greeks were pagan poly- scientists. ever, Job 23:10, “When he has tested theists who in succession worshiped me, I will come forth as gold,” would a pantheon of Olympic gods, became be more consistent with Ross’s other attracted to the mystery (salvation) choices. Also, Ross failed to cite an- religions, and later embraced Epicur- other verse that addresses testing: “Do ian and Stoic philosophies. However, First, Ross identified eighty-nine not put the Lord your God to the the popular religions continued to be issues in three categories (simple sci- test,” which is found in both the Pen- favored by Greeks. There is no indi- ences, complex sciences, social sci- tateuch (Deuteronomy 6:16) and the cation that the Bible influenced in any ences) for which predictions would Gospel (Luke 4:12). Does this verse way early Greek scientists. be developed. Examples of these is- rule out all scientific investigation of It should be mentioned that Ross sues are fine-tuning of physical laws, theological questions? cites three other items to buttress humanity’s arrival in cosmic history, Contradicting Ross’s assertion his claim: Galileo’s alleged rebuke of habitable zones for intelligent life, about the “biblical method” is the con- Catholic theologians, an exposition source of prebiotic molecules, diversity sensus opinion of historians of science about biblical faith, and reference to of early life, mass speciation events, who locate the origins of modern sci- the writings of a Scottish theologian. human descent, occurrence of natural ence in the Greek Golden Age start- Without any direct support from the disasters, biblical inerrancy, creation ing in 600  and continuing for six Bible or history, these ancillary points of Adam and Eve, and the existence centuries. Scientific inquiry was initi- are not helpful to Ross’s case. of the god of the Bible. Second, Ross formulated specific ated in Ionian Greece, soon spreading The only reasonable conclusion to predictions about what scientists to Athens and then to Alexandria. But be reached is that this is an example of the early precursors are found in Bab- should discover in future research for imaginative Christian revisionism asso- ylonia, Egypt, and Phoenicia several each of the creation and evolution ciated with the fabrication of the pseu- millennia before the advent of Greek viewpoints for the eighty-nine issues. do-discipline called “theistic science.” science. In what most people would regard as a Prominent Greeks advanced wholly unscientific approach, Ross de- Predicting Scientific Discoveries knowledge about the natural world veloped all predictions himself “while using the secular strategy of inquiry Ross asserts that good science involves attempting to remain as neutral and known as the scientific method. using models that make predictions objective as possible.” His predictions They made landmark discoveries that can be tested for validity. He are summarized in his 2006 book, leading to development of the mod- states correctly that tests of predictive Creation As Science: A Testable Model ern disciplines of acoustics, anatomy, success are valued by the scientific Approach to End the Creation/Evolution astronomy, botany, cartography, engi- community. However, Ross is refer- Wars (pp. 227–52).

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 55 75 percent, some would construe these Table 2: Ross’s Predictive Rates for Four Creation and Evolution Viewpoints results as convincing evidence of RTB creationism’s superiority over materi- Judged Success RTB YEC TE NE alistic, ungodly evolution. Of course, Fulfilled (or partly) 78% 25% 15% 2% this evaluation is not a legitimate demonstration of the relative merits Falsified (or partly) 0% 51% 42% 75% of RTB creationism and naturalistic ______evolution; it is instead just a contrived The labels are: RTB (old-Earth creationism), YEC (young-Earth creationism), TE (theistic evolution), and meaningless expression of Ross’s and NE (naturalistic evolution). highly favorable opinion of his own The predictive rates were calculated from Ross (2009, p. 244). biblically derived viewpoint and the corresponding abysmal failure of all The columns do not add to 100 percent because the undetermined category (not yet fulfilled) was others. omitted. Ross summarized by declaring that RTB creationism excels on predictive success as well as explanatory power Third, Ross evaluated the degree viewpoints are shown in Table 2. and performs well on five additional of success of his predictions for the The outcome of this elaborate “tests” he devised: censorship, stulti- four viewpoints on eighty-nine is- exercise should not be surprising to fication, integration, research passion, sues using a five-point scale: fulfilled, anyone, especially the monumental and destiny implications. He con- partly fulfilled, not yet fulfilled, partly difference between Ross’s RTB old- cluded that RTB creationism has the falsified, and falsified. There was ap- Earth creationism and godless, nat- power to change lives for the better parently no input from representatives uralistic evolution. With a fulfillment because “the spiritual heart can rejoice of any other viewpoints. The results of rate of 78 percent versus 2 percent and with what the mind knows to be true.” Ross’s one-man evaluation of the four a falsification rate of 0 percent versus Finally, Ross accuses evolution- ists (and young-Earth creationists) There’s much more available on our website! of engaging in “ongoing purposeful attempts to ignore or shut out RTB’s claims.” Considering how extreme Skep ti cal In quir er Reasons to Believe’s claims really are, it is understandable that the National Academy of Sciences, the Vatican Sci- Here’s just a sample of what you’ll find: ence Pontificate, and other scientific organizations would disregard RTB I Grief Vampires Don’t Come Out Only at Night creationism. casts a skeptical eye on “grief vampires” such as self-proclaimed psychic Tyler Henry: “These people come and go fame-wise. His flame might be bright for References the moment, but it could quickly fade into obscurity, or it could ignite a fire that Ross, H. 2006. Creation As Science: A Testable www.csicop.org. will burn the memories and interrupt and corrupt the grieving process for parents Model Approach to End the Creation/ who go to him in desperation and loss Evolution Wars. Colorado Springs, CO: NavPress. Trump-Rage: How Political Anger Clouds Our Thinking ———. 2009. More Than a Theory: Revealing a Tamar Wilner examines how anger in the political realm can cloud critical thinking: Testable Model for Creation. Grand Rapids, “Anger, managed correctly, can drive ethical action. The key is to focus on the MI: Baker. informational content of those anger states and find the most effective ways to fashion and spread correctives. Brian Bolton is a retired research psychologist with a background in mathematics, statis- tics, and psychomet- rics. His contributions in psychological mea- surement, personality assessment, and the psychology of disability have been recognized by universities and psycho- logical societies. He lives in Georgetown, For more online columns, features, and special content, visit www.csicop.org. Texas.

56 Volume 40 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer REVIEWS ]

Clear Thinking About Cancer HARRIET HALL

ideon Burrows has inoperable brain cancer that is slow growing This Book Won’t Cure Your Cancer. By Gideon Burrows. Gbut is inevitably going to kill NGO media, 2015. ISBN 978-0955369599. 212 pp. him. He has written a remarkable book Paperback. $15.79. about his experience, This Book Won’t Cure Your Cancer. He is a professional wordsmith, and he describes his experi- ence of illness so vividly that the reader enters into his life, feels what he feels, and shares his suspense about what the next scan or doctor visit will reveal. Along with him we suffer through the panic and fear, the chaos, the ag- ries, alternative medicine, and “forbid- died shortly after the second book was onies of delays and uncertainty, the den cancer cures.” Their friends bom- published. People are still reading his unpleasant hospital environment, and bard them with advice. Most of those books and following his advice; many specialists with poor bedside manners. sources “offer hope to people when of them don’t realize he is dead. We follow him through difficult deci- they need it most, but have earned no sions about how to share the bad news right to do so.” The Cancer Culture with friends, relatives, and his young Burrows read “the biggest cancer Burrows describes the prevailing can- children; we understand why this en- book of all time,” Anticancer: A New cer culture that depicts it as a battle, genders guilty feelings. The story is as Way of Life, by Servan-Schreiber, and calls patients brave warriors, and cele- engaging as a detective story; we can was bitterly disappointed. It offers a brates the victorious survivors. He says, hardly wait to see what the next scan plan to keep cancer at bay through will show and how the story of his ill- Cancer is not a brave battle to fight, mental balance and diet, but he real- it is a terrible disease to run away ness will play out. It puts a human face ized that Servan-Schreiber makes un- from. It is a puzzle to try to solve, on the cancer experience, which would warranted extrapolations from single something to try to keep at bay make the book valuable for that alone, scientific studies and anecdotes, and using the very best tools we have. . . . but it is much more. The gradually un- he blames the victim by trying to es- I’m not brave. I’m just getting on. folding episodes of his personal story Making the most of what I’ve got. tablish a lifestyle cause for a kind of Crying, and laughing, and forgetting, are interwoven with what amounts to a tumor for which science has found no and remembering, and plodding and primer on how to think critically about cause and which is likely due only to pedaling on. Like we all do, cancer science-based medicine vs. alternative bad luck. Servan-Schreiber thought he or not. treatments. I can’t recommend this had beat cancer, but it returned with Three different specialists gave him book highly enough. a vengeance. Then he wrote a sec- the same prognosis. His cancer is in- ond book. Instead of acknowledging operable. It will inevitably progress and Untrustworthy Information that his methods hadn’t worked, he need treatment, but for now all that is When people are diagnosed with can- rationalized that he hadn’t followed needed is to monitor it with scans and cer, they are vulnerable and desperate. his own advice carefully enough: He to control his seizures with medication. They look for information and are hadn’t done enough to control stress Friends suggested he keep looking for a likely to find cookbooks, miracle sto- or maybe he hadn’t eaten properly. He surgeon who would be willing to oper-

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 57 [ REVIEWS

ate. What if he searched the world and line as the red balloons? in the studies. found five doctors who wouldn’t oper- He doesn’t blame people who go off He faults alternative providers for ate and a sixth who would? Would it be in pursuit of a promised miracle cure. not carrying out even the most basic rational to trust the sixth doctor’s opin- He understands their desperation and scientific controls. If they have a treat- ion more than that of the other five? the comfort of having a hope to cling ment that works, they should want to Of course not. He should trust him to. Rather, he blames those who offer inform the world. It would be simple less. Unfortunately, many patients play that anything without a fair, accurate, to publish honest, even independently this game, spend enormous amounts of and accountable foundation. The power audited lists of all treated patients with money, and end up worse or no better and responsibility to advise about can- data on all the successes and failures. than they would have been. cer treatment “should only be earned by The argument that there isn’t money results, proof, and accountability.” to test alternative medicine is a red What if he proposed that herring; even small businesses monitor What Constitutes Proof? their performance indicators. Diet ad- blowing up 100 red balloons vice and cancer cookbooks abound, but, Burrows describes how people ignore he notes, “The most science has shown would cure cancer? Is that reality to cling to their beliefs. When is that having a generally healthy diet alternative medicine proponent Chris really any more ridiculous and exercising regularly lowers our risk Woollams’s daughter survived for lon- of getting cancer. It does not prevent than coffee enemas? ger than average, he credited her alter- cancer. It does not cure it.” native treatments; when her tumor Other bits of wisdom he imparts recurred and killed her, he blamed her include: He talks about the false promises of for not following his regime prop- erly. When “Wellness Warrior” Jessica unconventional cancer doctors such as The News Media Burzynski (see David Gorski’s article Ainscough died, her followers claimed “Stanislaw Burzynski: Four Decades it was because she didn’t do Gerson The news media report real new devel- of an Unproven Cancer Cure” in the therapy correctly. Those who get both opments in scientific cancer treatment March/April 2014 SI) and the impetus conventional and alternative treatment right along with sensationalist stories to “try anything.” He said it is not rea- and survive often refuse to give credit about unreliable pseudoscientific claims. sonable to “try anything” if there is no to the conventional treatment: “. . . it They strive for “balance” and give alter- evidence that “anything” works. People doesn’t matter what you think cured native treatments more credit than they say it’s worth trying because there is no you or made you feel better. Opinion deserve. This is wrong-headed; it’s not evidence that it doesn’t work. He spot- doesn’t come into it, only the biology a matter of two politicians presenting ted the fallacy in that reasoning: “There and science.” opposing views; it’s a matter of sci- are many millions of things that have Testimonials abound. “It worked entific fact and expert opinion versus not been proven to not cure cancer, but for me” is a kind of “social proof” but speculation and uninformed opinions mostly because many millions of things in reality is no evidence at all. In fact, of non-experts (and sometimes even of have never been tried. That does not personal testimonies are the enemy of charlatans). The news serves to confuse mean they are a potential cure, nor that proof. We hear about successes, but we rather than to inform. they are sensible to pursue.” don’t hear about the failures because What if he proposed that blowing no records are kept. To be taken seri- Confronting Rubbish ously, a theory has to be falsifiable. Ex- up 100 red balloons would cure can- Is it rude or cruel to confront people cer? Is that really any more ridiculous cusing failures by saying the treatment who talk rubbish about cancer? If we than coffee enemas? When does one wasn’t properly followed leaves no way don’t, are we allowing potentially more anything become something we should to determine whether it actually works. damage to be done just to avoid a per- try, and who gets to decide what is Controlled scientific studies can test sonal feeling of discomfort? “How far too ridiculous to try? Even alternative whether it works; they are based on does our reluctance to criticize mean practitioners disagree with each other. falsifiability. Proponents of alternative that energy, passion, and grief is chan- Where do you draw the line? If a treat- medicine often reject the scientific ap- neled away from cancer cure research, ment has not been proven to work, is proach; they argue that their treatments not towards it?” not biologically plausible, has not been are not amenable to randomized con- tested in animals, and is not backed trolled trials, and that they might still by the majority of scientific experts, work for an individual even when stud- Ancient Wisdom shouldn’t it fall on the same side of the ies show they didn’t work for the people “Ancient practice is not always ancient

58 Volume 40 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer Listing does not preclude future review.

Big Pharma and Conspiracies Hope wisdom. . . . That something was being done in the earliest days of civ- Big Pharma deserves blame for many At the end of the book, Burrows’s ilization to cure illnesses should make sins, but it is ridiculous to say it condition is stable and he is far from us more wary of those treatments, not doesn’t want to find a cure for cancer devoid of hope; but his hope is cen- keener to try them for ourselves… or already has a cure and is keep- tered in realism and rationalism. He progress means replacement of the ing it secret. He explains why those hopes for the possible, not for the old and ineffective, the unproven and conspiracy theories are completely impossible. Perhaps a change in med- dangerous, by the new and better, the wrong-headed. The idea that there’s ication will better control his seizures; proven and safer.” no money in natural products is easily perhaps he will survive long enough refuted by the success of bottled water for science to find an effective cure for Religion and natural health food stores. his cancer. He believes that reality and People ask, “What about God?” As science are always better than lies and an atheist, the question never arose Who Are the Experts? belief in magic. He thinks it is a shame for Burrows, even though he holds a that patients turn to alternative med- Self-declared “experts” write books. icine and make themselves ineligible degree in theology. He explains why But it takes only two minutes on the prayer is only likely to make those who for clinical trials that offer real hope Internet to demonstrate that there are for contributing to the greater good. pray feel like they are acting virtuously, experts in that field who question or and why it is logically indefensible as an Burrows predicts that believers disagree with them. Failure to reveal attempt to improve health outcomes. in alternative medicine will demon- the controversy should make readers ize him for writing this book, but he question whether anything else in the Cancer is Natural makes them this promise: “If you can book is true. Burrows put his life in show me firm, peer-reviewed scientific “Cancer doesn’t care about you.” It isn’t the hands of real experts who know far evidence that your cancer prevention something gone wrong; it’s DNA doing more about his tumor than any patient therapy or cure works, I will no longer what DNA is supposed to do. Without or self-proclaimed cancer guru. He can call it alternative medicine. I’ll call it DNA mutation, there would be no evo- make choices about his care, but “they medicine. And if proven to work for lution, no us. Cancer is a natural con- set the boundaries between which I my particular brain tumor, I’ll be first sequence of the same mechanisms that can make decisions. That’s the rational in line for a dose.” Burrows’s message make our hair grow and our wounds way to behave, and I understand that is that we often act irrationally around heal. There are many cancers, and half they know best.” cancer. He wrote his book not to advise of us will get one eventually. Cancers patients about cancer treatment but to are not always a death sentence. We can Major Issues for Society encourage people to look at the infor- cure some of them and live with others. mation they are given (from both con- Conventional medicine and alterna- ventional and unconventional sources) tive medicine operate in two sepa- Doctor-Bashing with a sharper critical eye. This book rate universes that don’t communicate Proponents of alternative medicine beautifully complements Siddhartha with each other. Alternative provid- love to criticize doctors. It’s undeniable Mukherjee’s Pulitzer Prize–winning ers fail to understand the scientific that there is a lot wrong with conven- The Emperor of All Maladies: A Biog- realities of modern cancer treatment. tional medicine. The system is flawed. raphy of Cancer. Reading both of them Conventional providers often fail to Individual doctors are not perfect; they will help you understand pretty much appreciate their patients’ fears and mis- miss diagnoses and make mistakes. “But everything worth knowing about can- understandings. Patients are left in if we exercise skepticism and doubt cer and the people who suffer from it. n about medically trained doctors, oncol- limbo. As a society, we need to have a Harriet Hall, MD, is a retired family physi- ogy and conventional medicine, then sensible conversation about dying and cian who writes about pseudoscience and we should subject alternative medicine not just keep patients with cancer alive questionable medical practices. She is a to at least the same level of doubt and longer at all costs. We should learn fellow and member of the Executive Coun- scrutiny. In fact, I would argue alterna- when to let go. A recent study found cil of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry tive medicine deserves far more doubt that hospice patients with an end-of- and a frequent contributor to S  I- because it self-consciously puts itself life plan not only have a better quality outside conventional medicine that has of life than those who insist on every . A slightly longer version of this re- been proven by time and experience to, possible intervention, but they actually view appears on the website sciencebas mostly but not always, get it right.” live longer. edmedicine.org.

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 59 [ REVIEWS

A Celebrity’s Experience in Scientology WENDY M. GROSSMAN

he actress Leah Remini, known Troublemaker: Surviving Hollywood and Scientology. By for playing outspoken, ballsy Leah Remini. Ballantine Books, New York, 2015. ISBN 978-1- Tcharacters—most famously in 101-88696-0. 234 pp. Hardcover, $27. the long-running sitcom The King of Queens—always seemed miscast as a Scientologist. Not that actors have to be like the characters they play, but it seemed a pity. As it turns out, like many other Scientologists her age, Remini was brought into the Church by a parent, in her case at seven when her divorced and John Sweeney’s The Church of Fear tone of their answers. She similarly dis- mother’s new boyfriend was a member. (see my review of all three in the May/ cusses what it feels like to go through The boyfriend didn’t last, but Remini June 2013 S I, on- auditing and security-checking, and liked that he listened seriously to her line at http://www.csicop.org/si/show/ how the Church’s manipulation works and her sister. When they began taking clear_and_fear_scientology_under_re- when you’re the person on the receiving introductory courses and doing drills, view) all had new revelations to make end. You are, she writes, encouraged she found this approach permeated about the worst abuses the Church of to report the misdeeds of others—but the Church. She liked feeling equal to Scientology has heaped on its most de- doing so is likely to open you to extra grown-ups, and she believed that Sci- voted members. These books revealed auditing as well. She also writes about entology was a way of helping people the existence of the Rehabilitation Proj- the extensive financial burden Scientol- and doing good for the world, which ect Force (RPF), Scientology’s equiva- ogy places on ordinary families, “help- Remini says is common to many mem- lent to prison, the autocratic behavior ing” them raise their credit limits to bers. When her mother proposed mov- of Church leader David Miscavige, and donate the maximum to the Church. ing to Florida to become part of the the lengths to which the Church will go In one section, Remini recalls her Church full time, Remini and her sister to keep its best-known adherent, Tom interview with John Sweeney for his went willingly. Cruise, happy. Remini’s book does not 2007 BBC documentary, Scientology In her new book, Troublemaker, contain new information on this level. and Me. “The guy is crazy,” Church written with Rebecca Paley, Remini Instead, it paints an intimate picture of spokesman Tommy Davis warned her. interweaves stories of her personal and the lives of dedicated Scientologists, Sweeney then startled her by asking, professional life with her history in and those who are close adherents but not “Does David Miscavige hit people?” As growing doubts about Scientology. deep insiders. Remini was not, after all, she tells it now, she was deeply upset by Paley deserves a lot of credit for help- a celebrity for half her time in Scien- the way Davis and his fellow Church ing keep Remini’s voice. Remini also tology. PR person, Mike Rinder, treated Swee- seems content to discuss her own flaws As a result, many practices are out- ney, pushing him to the limit until he and mistakes. lined in a new kind of detail. L. Ron exploded (an incident the Church re- The tranche of books about Scien- Hubbard’s “tone scale” has been de- corded and placed on YouTube). She tology that began in 2011 with Janet scribed from Hubbard’s writing by, for regretted that he apologized for that Reitman’s Inside Scientology (reviewed example, Reitman and Wright. Remini explosion. “The BBC,” she writes, in SI, January/February 2012) and talks about what it was like learning to “had no idea of what this man had to continued in 2013 with Lawrence use it by being required to stop com- endure.” By 2010, Rinder had left the Wright’s Going Clear (now a movie), plete strangers on Hollywood Boule- Church and was telling Sweeney the Jenna Miscavige-Hill’s Beyond Belief, vard, ask them questions, and assess the truth on his follow-up documentary,

60 Volume 40 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer NEW AND NOTABLE] Listing does not preclude future review.

The Secrets of Scientology. CLIMATE CHANGE: What Everyone Needs to Know. Joseph Romm. One of the United Kingdom’s most influential communicators on “I don’t go on the Internet,” she told climate science and solutions provides a compact primer on what Sweeney in 2007 in an interview that didn’t everyone should know. He starts with a chapter on climate science air (but that both recount in their books). basics, then describes the causal links to more extreme weather, In late 2012, inspired by an email sent by explores the projected impacts of climate change and how to former Scientology member Debbie Cook avoid the worst impacts, explores climate politics and policies, and examines the role of clean energy. A final chapter, “Climate outlining the abuse that actually happened Change and You,” explores some of the more personal questions within the Church, she finally did. that climate change raises for individuals and families. Oxford Remini left in 2013. In contemporane- University Press, 2016, 302 pp., $16.95. ous interviews, the reason seemed to boil down to her years-long inability to get an MEMORY AND MOVIES: What Films Can Teach Us about Memory. John Seamon. Memory is of course key to many experiences answer to a single question: What had hap- examined within the realm of skepticism, from false memories pened to Church leader David Miscavige’s of sexual abuse and alien abduction to mistaken recollections of wife, Shelly, who had vanished from public paranormal experiences. Films tell stories about the human condi- view? Troublemaker makes it plain that this tion, and psychology professor John Seamon shows how memory particular question was one Remini kept as depicted in popular movies can shed light on how human memory works. Seamon uses examples from movies to offer an picking at. But she had other doubts, raised accessible description of what science knows about memory by what she saw of Cruise’s behavior and function and dysfunction, including describing the process of the Church’s slavish efforts to keep him long-term memory with examples from such films as Castaway and Groundhog Day; the happy (which included forcing Remini to effect of emotion on autobiographical memory in The Kite Runner, Titanic, and so on. The write myriad reports and apologies for tiny MIT Press, 2015, 272 pp., $29.95. infractions at his wedding). NEWTON’S APPLE AND OTHER MYTHS about SCIENCE. Ronald L. As far as Remini could see, the latter vi- Numbers and Kostas Kampourakis, editors. Twenty-eight schol- olated L. Ron Hubbard’s own policies, and ars, many of them historians or philosophers of science, examine besides, what kind of role model Scientolo- and refute a number of popular myths about science, brushing gist was a three-time divorcee? Meanwhile, way misconceptions to allow a clearer picture of great scientific breakthroughs from ancient times to the present. Among the her mother had reached the high-level sta- myths refuted is that no science was done in the Dark Ages, that tus of OT VIII and class VI auditor and fear of public reactions alone led Darwin to delay publishing his found “she couldn’t move objects with her theory of evolution, that Gregor Mendel was far ahead of his time mind or cure cancer by the force of her as a pioneer of genetics, and that a clear line separates science will. She was still just herself.” In a situ- and pseudoscience. Myths about particle physics and Einstein’s relativity are also exposed. A unifying theme is that rather than deriving from lonely acts of genius, sci- ation where many families choose to stay ence is a cooperative activity of dedicated, fallible human beings. Harvard University with Scientology when one member leaves, Press, 2015, 287 pp., $27.95. Remini was lucky: most of her family left with her, as you can see in her reality series, SUICIDE AS A DRAMATIC PERFORMANCE. David Lester and Steven It’s All Relative. Stack, editors. Each suicide is as unique as the individuals involved, but dramatic aspects of the death often provide import- Now, two years later, Remini sums it ant clues for understanding the mental state of suicidal individu- up: “Despite its claims to the contrary, the als. This book provides insight into the psychological, social, and practice doesn’t help you better the world or cultural aspects of suicide as dramatic performance. Some people even yourself; it only helps you be a better kill themselves in hopes of spurring social change, leaving mani- Scientologist.” n festos; others do it to air personal grievances, and so on. Some choose to perform their act live on television or post it on social media, knowing that the story—and thus potentially their mes- sage—will be seen by millions. David Lester and Steven Stack investigate what happens Wendy M. Grossman is the founder and former before a suicide when the suicidal individual must make decisions and formulate the editor (twice) of The Skeptic (U.K.) and a Com- script for his or her suicidal act. The book offers insights into suicide as staged drama, mittee for Skeptical Inquiry fellow. In her 1995 including chapters on the intended audience, the suicide note, the location and method article in Wired, “alt.scientology.war,” a former chosen, and cultural scripts including suicide-by-cop, and duels. Transaction Publishers, Scientology PR man, Vaughn Young, predicted 2015, 354 pp., $59.95. that the Internet would be Scientology’s Viet- nam. She now says he seems to have been absolutely correct.

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 61 [ REVIEWS

The Physics of Martial Arts PETER HUSTON

he martial arts field is many things to many people, and it often con- Fight Like a Physicist: Make Physics Your Advantage in the Tfuses not just the general public Ring and on the Street. By Jason Thalken. YMAA Publication but also skeptics. What’s an outsider Center, Wolfeboro, New Hampshire, 2015. ISBN: 1-59439- to make of a wide-reaching milieu 338-9. 161 pp. Paperback, $16.95. that includes contact sports, histori- cal reenactment, self-defense training, and New Age pseudohistorical mysti- cal gobbledygook when all are labeled “martial arts”? This question brings us to a new book called Fight Like A Physicist: Make Physics Your Advantage in the Ring and on the Street, written knock people over with just a wave of show people how simple it was. Sadly, by a PhD physicist. Although Jason his hand without physical contact. Un- the bed of nails became rusty and was Thalken writes well, footnotes care- surprisingly, it works best on people, tossed years ago.) fully, and uses interesting analogies such as students of the person perform- First, I found it surprising to explain concepts well, one has to ing the technique, who believe in it and that Thalken not only failed to ask what, if anything, does this book are aware of what is expected to happen cite me (“China, Chi, and Chi- include that would be of interest to but never on people who don’t believe canery,” by Peter Huston, which skeptics? in it. He discusses a variety of physics is available at http://www.csicop. Although most of the 161-page stunts that are often credited to “Qi” org/si/show/china_chi_and_chicanery_ book focuses on subjects such as the (also spelled or pronounced as “chi” or examining_traditional_chinese_medi- best designs and advantages of using “ki”), a mystical life force prominent cine_and_chi_theo) but he also failed to helmets and boxing gloves in contact in traditional East Asian thinking and include Leung Ting’s fascinating book, sports as well as the basic physics of thus frequently a part of martial arts. Behind the Incredibles, Vol. 2. strikes of different kinds (and therefore These include lying on beds of nails, Additionally, while discussing chi, is of limited interest to most skeptics), breaking boards or bricks, and walking he also takes a swipe at therapeutic chapter 9, “Qi and Pseudoscience in the on hot coals, among others. He also touch, citing the famous Emily Rosa Martial Arts,” is an eighteen-page gem presents a critical discussion of the idea paper in which a young girl allegedly that skeptics should be aware of. It is that Qi can aid one’s health. disproved therapeutic touch (TT) in a that brief chapter that this review will Thalken does an excellent job of science-fair project. Although I think focus on. Although chapter 8, “Guns, carefully analyzing these claims and it’s fair to say that TT has been thor- Knives, and the Hollywood Death Sen- discrediting them. His analysis is intel- oughly discredited and is not a scientific tence,” discusses the effects of weapons ligent, his explanations clear and well healing modality, Thalken does not and combat in reality versus the mov- presented, and his facts carefully foot- seem aware that there was a controversy ies for fourteen pages and also contains noted. Only an insecure pedant with an around Rosa’s paper and its methodol- information of interest to the general axe to grind could find anything there ogy. (See “Perception of Conventional skeptic, chapter 9 is of the most inter- to criticize. Sensory Cues as an Alternative to the est to most readers of the S However, being an insecure ped- Postulated ‘Human Energy Field’ of I. ant with an axe to grind, I now offer Therapeutic Touch,” by Rebecca Long, In this chapter, the author does a some minor quibbles and criticisms. Paul Bernhardt, and William Evans in good job of debunking a variety of phe- (For the record, I am not just a martial the Fall/Winter 1999 issue of The Sci- nomenal claims. The first of these is artist but am also someone who in the entific Review of Alternative Medicine.) the “no touch knock out,” a claim that 1990s went so far as to construct a bed As described in Long et al.’s book, a highly advanced martial artist can of nails simply so I could lie on it and Emily Rosa’s experiment was based

62 Volume 40 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer TROLLS: An Unnatural History. John Lindow. Trolls lurk under bridges waiting to eat children, threaten hobbits in on the valid reasoning that if TT prac- Middle Earth, and invade the dungeons of Hogwarts. To titioners could detect and manipulate a explain why trolls still hold our interest, Lindow goes back to human energy field, they should be able their first appearances in Scandinavian folklore, where they to feel the presence of an experimenter’s were beings in nature living beside a preindustrial society unseen hand more often than predicted by of small-scale farming and fishing. He explores reports of chance, which would be about 50 percent actual encounters with trolls and follows trolls’ transition from folktales to other domains in popular culture. Lindow, of the time. The subjects in Rosa’s original a professor at the University of California at Berkeley, notes study detected her hand only 44 percent that “in many cultures supernatural beings can indeed be part of people’s empiri- of the time, and in a repeat of the study cal experience. . . . It is fair to say that the troll has been one of the most important for television, detected it only 41 percent and enduring images of otherness in large parts of the world.” The book is detailed of the time. In other words, they did even and scholarly but offers much for the casual reader and amateur folklorist (or worse than chance would predict, at a level cryptozoologist). Reaktion Books, 2014, 160 pp., $27. that was statistically significant, suggest- TRUTH OR TRUTHINESS: Distinguishing Fact from Fiction ing problems in the study’s methodology. by Learning to Think Like a Data Scientist. Howard Wainer. Long et al. replicated Emily Rosa’s Wainer, a distinguished research scientist at the National experiment with rigorous experimental Board of Medical Examiners and a statistician, laments the controls and found that at the hand dis- turning away from evidence in the assertion by everyone tance reportedly used in the Rosa study, from politicians to educators of all manner of claims about the test subjects could correctly identify today’s world. He shows how we can escape the clutches of the location of the unseen hand almost 80 truthiness by applying the skeptical mindset of a data sci- entist to expose truthiness, nonsense, and outright decep- percent of the time. Their ability to detect tion. He evaluates the evidence, or lack thereof, supporting the unseen hand decreased with distance, claims in many fields, with special emphasis in education. Cambridge University and placement of a piece of glass between Press, 2016, 210 pp., $29.99. their hand and that of the experimenter ef- fectively prevented the location of the un- THE WISEST ONE IN THE ROOM: How You Can Benefit from seen hand from being sensed. The exper- Social Psychology’s Most Powerful Insights. Thomas imenters concluded from this that the test Gilovich and Lee Ross. Two noted professors of psychol- ogy write beneficially for us all on wisdom (with its three subjects were able to detect the presence of components: knowledge, insight, and judgment). Unlike the unseen hand via body heat, suggest- intelligence, wisdom demands some insight and effective- ing that perhaps TT practitioners mistake ness around people. The authors draw on research in social perceptions of body heat for sensing the psychology, judgment, and decision-making, which has illu- human energy field. Additional testing minated how and why people are quick to draw conclusions showed that in a less rigorously controlled when they’d be better served by stepping back and taking a study such as Emily Rosa’s, inadvertent broader perspective. Their goal is twofold: to help you be wiser so you can be more effective with colleagues, friends, and family and to acquaint you with the broader cues such as leaning an elbow on the table principles that provide the foundation for that practical advice. An article based on could significantly cue, or miscue, the test their first chapter appears in this issue. Free Press, 2015, 307 pp., $26.00. subjects, a factor that could have accounted for Rosa’s results. THE WRONG HANDS: Popular Weapons Manuals and Their But as stated, these are mere quibbles, Historic Challenges to a Democratic Society: Ann Larabee. minor criticisms at best of an otherwise For well over a century the United States government has fine book. If the subjects of this book inter- regarded the circulation of weapons manuals and instruc- tion booklets as dangerous and criminal. Ann Larabee traces est you, seek it out—and even if it doesn’t, the nuanced history of do-it-yourself weapons manuals from consider chapter 9 to be must reading for the late nineteenth century to the present to explain their serious skeptics, particularly if interested in role in the state’s evolving policy toward radical dissent. n fantastic martial arts claims. The book covers a wide variety of topics from The Anarchist Cookbook to Edward Abbey’s novel The Monkey Wrench Gang, which have been accused of inspiring domestic terrorists. It is an interesting Peter Huston is an author and teacher of En- look at the battle between free speech and the right of the public to have access to glish as a second language. His books are information that could be dangerous in the wrong hands. Oxford University Press, available on Amazon.com and elsewhere. 2015, 264 pp., $29.95. In addition to an MS in teaching English to speakers of other languages, he has a mas- —Kendrick Frazier and Benjamin Radford ter’s degree in East Asian Studies and has lived, taught, and traveled extensively in Asia.

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 63 [LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

I enjoyed Kusche’s article on the ministry—is to deny the fact These denials are so universally solution of the Bermuda Trian- outright. considered preposterous that gle mysteries. It brought back According to Answers in their rational refutation is no memories of the popular media Genesis, creationists and evo- longer necessary. So maybe just of the 1970s. I even wasted some lutionists examine the same ignoring young-Earthers for long time and money in following the evidence but condition their enough would see rational refu- mysterians’ attempt to solve this interpretation of it on their pre- tation of their dogma become great mystery. However, I think suppositions. Creationists pre- unnecessary as well. Kusche’s statements at the end of suppose the existence of God Bill Schwarz his article [the last two full para- and the authority of the Bible, Louisville, Colorado graphs about the broader need and they interpret the scientific for skepticism and critical think- evidence accordingly, as con- Is it “deja vu all over again,” ing in everyday life, politics, and firming that the Earth is thou- health] are the most important or did we just go through a fif- sands of years old. Evolutionists ty-year time loop? I am won- for today. I have typed them reach a contrary conclusion be- The Bermuda Triangle with full credit to the author and dering because I just read an cause they presuppose the irrele- almost verbatim rendering of Manufactured Mystery magazine and will distribute to vance of God and the Bible. persons who I think need to read a conversation I had with my Of course, it is not my inten- Many thanks for the article by this advice. high school buddies from 1965. Larry Kusche (a member of my tion to defend such a view of the Except Harris and Harris (“The own profession) marking forty Frank Filemyr relationships among evidence, Devil and the Details”) missed years since the publication of Milton, Delaware interpretation, and presuppo- the bit about how awesome it his excellent book The Bermuda sition, which is transparently would have been to have seen Triangle Mystery—Solved (No- Young-Earth Creationism concocted to insulate creation- the collapse of the “Bridge of the ism from empirical critique alto- vember/December 2015). (Like In “The Devil and the Details” Gods.” gether. But anybody interested a good librarian, he gave his full (November/December 2015), I grew up suffused by a cul- in “confronting the . . . perspec- name, Lawrence David Kusche!) Jérémie Harris and Edouard ture of skepticism with a father The Triangle is indeed the Harris argue that it is impossi- tive of young-Earth creationism passionate about science who classic manufactured mystery, ble for young-Earth creationists, head-on,” as Harris and Harris just happened to be a very good and I call many people’s attitude such as Ken of Answers avow themselves to be, ought to natural teacher. Even as I would to claims of paranormal powers in Genesis, to reconcile the have a complete idea of what it is try variations on the themes as and phenomena in the Bermuda fact that the scientific evidence that they are likely to encounter. recorded by Harris and Harris, Triangle approach—asking “We overwhelmingly supports the Glenn Branch my inner voice would scream, have a mystery. How can we great age of the Earth with “the National Center for Science “Just open your eyes!” Sigh, I solve it?” not “Is there a mystery? broader theistic view of the bib- Education grew up at the southern edge of Does anything require explana- lical god as a benevolent and lov- Oakland, California the Scablands. Ancient geology tion?” As Kusche shows, the ing friend to humanity,” which, was not a classroom lecture. It answer to the question “Why do of course, creationists accept. “The Devil and the Details” pos- was a daily “in your face” reality ships and aircraft vanish mys- I am not convinced that their its two young-Earther scenarios: for those of us connected to the teriously in that (remarkably argument is decisive. At bottom, maybe the evidence pointing real world. elastic!) part of the Atlantic?” is they are advancing the knotty to an ancient Earth has been The fact that after five de- simple: they don’t. problem of evil in a particularly “planted” by Satan to deceive cades this is still a thing grinds A British television program restricted version—with respect, mankind, or maybe God himself on the nerves a bit. Perhaps, this on someone’s theories about the that is, to the evil of the mislead- chose to produce evidence of an new generation will have better Triangle had a contact telephone ing nature of the scientific evi- ancient Earth for reasons known success than mine. See you in number (it was before texting dence that the Earth is billions only to him. The authors then another fifty years. . . . of years old—and considering rationally refute both scenarios. and email) and I called it, but Robert I. Price the woman who answered could (and rejecting) only two possi- Skeptics recognize that reso- ble solutions to it. But perhaps lute faith in the “truth” of one Department of Physics (re- only say that the man had solved tired) the mystery; I just couldn’t con- they would not claim to have or the other of the two creation provided a decisive argument in myths in Genesis 1 and 2, or in University of Nebraska vey to her that there was no mys- Kearney, Nebraska tery. their brief article. some convenient muddling to- More important, Harris and gether of the two, is sufficient to I recommend Kusche’s contribution, also called “The Harris wrongly presuppose that compel true believers to conceive young-Earth creationists would such nonsense and to deny all Bermuda Triangle,” to the book Harris and Harris respond: Science and the Paranormal ed- acknowledge the fact that the evidence to the contrary. scientific evidence overwhelm- In that respect they’re just ited by George O. Abell and Believers in young-Earth cre- ingly supports the great age of like flat-Earthers, who deny the Barry Singer (Scribner, 1981) as ationism (YEC) may be united the Earth. While there are a few world is round, refute “proofs” a good summary of his work on by a common ontology, but they young-Earth creationists who of round Earth theory (another the subject. can be broadly divided into two acknowledge that fact, whether “It’s just a theory” situation?), groups based on the thought pro- Ray Ward grudgingly or forthrightly, the and struggle to uncover the cess to which they subscribe. The London current predominant strategy— “conspiracy” to withhold the first group takes Genesis as un- United Kingdom as with the Answers in Genesis truth from the public (yawn…). questioned fact and systematically

64 Volume 40 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer interprets all observations in a way sulting in greater use of Roundup okay, then I wouldn’t be worried truth. As for environmentalists, that is consistent with the Biblical and harming wild vegetation and about climate change. Context if Round-up is a problem, then clearly matters. If the author had account. The second group claims exposing us to more pesticide on ban Round-up. Non-GMO crops the food we eat. However, it is just presented the information to hold to the YEC perspective for might use it too, while plenty of not the GMO that may be harm- as a way of countering subjec- evidentiary reasons: they would, GMOs won’t use it at all. So an ful but the weed-killer. It would tive impressions, I wouldn’t be and do, argue that the YEC view environmentalist who obsesses is the one that would be reached make more sense for government more concerned. Instead, the author trots out a few references over GMOs is like an anti-drunk after a dispassionate examination agencies to place restrictions on that claim GMOs are safe and driving activist banning all clear of the available evidence. It would the weed-killer than to require good. The author does not even liquids: it ignores the main prob- be a mistake to ignore this latter an ambiguous GMO label to be mention that environmentalists lem, and is neither a specific nor se- body of YEC believers, who at placed on all food products that are very concerned about farm least contend that their views are are not organic. lective enough treatment anyway. worker safety and ecological ef- the outcome of a rational thought A GMO label tells the con- Plus there are the GMOs designed fects of GMOs such as Round- process that does not presuppose the sumer nothing about the nature to be environmentally friendly: of the GMO. up-tolerant crops. Nor does he Bt crops make their own, organic factual accuracy of the Bible. Our show any awareness that a cor- GMO labeling is not about insecticide, meaning farmers need article was inspired by successive poration might not properly bal- providing useful information to encounters with several members ance societal benefits when in the not spray insecticides at all. One the consumer. Forbidding or re- of the YEC community who hold presence of a potential corporate could also make GMOs that need quiring such labeling reflects the such views. Our argument is that benefit. This failure makes the less fertilizer or less water, which is this evidentiary YEC position is political/economic struggle be- author’s argument appear to be a great for the environment and hu- not consistent with belief in a god tween the organic producers and straw man argument, rather than manity. If you read my article and that is both omnipotent and be- agribusiness. It provides a scare- an attempt to educate. The pos- still fear GMOs, then you did not crow meant to scare consumers nevolent. sibility that the author’s attitude read my article carefully enough. into buying organic non-GMO If the logic of our article is ac- is common makes me more wor- Check out the meta-analyses that cepted, one is constrained to admit products. It ap pears to be little ried about GMOs. keep coming out and your concerns that there is no way to conclude more credible than calling prod- Robert Clear will be addressed. that the YEC narrative is true ucts that are not organic “inor- without finally appealing to a ganic.” Berkeley, California tautological argument: In defend- David W. Briggs ing YEC, one ultimately reaches a Matan Shelomi responds: Marion, Massachusetts point at which the question, “Why Thanks for the comments. In re- [FEEDBACK do you believe in young-Earth cre- Regarding “We Are All GMOs” gard to Gilliam’s letter, his con- ationism?” can only be met with by Matan Shelomi: Natural gene cern over the speed of GMO spread the answer, “I do not know.” The letters column is a forum on transfers between very different applies just as easily to conven- matters raised in previous issues. species are qualitatively equiva- tionally bred crops. They are also Letters should be no longer than lent to genetic engineering, but ‘We Are All GMOs’ genetically modified, just using 225 words. Due to the volume Shelomi ig nores two differences: different methods. So there is no of letters we receive, not all can The S  I is to be (1) Natural transfers must spread reason to expect GMOs to be more be published. Send letters as congratulated for providing ra- slowly from the single organism or less safe in terms of their global email text (not attachments) to tional support for GMO with the in which they occur. GMOs use than anything else we bred [email protected]. In the subject article by Matan Shelomi, “We are rapidly spread all over the and since globalized, from apples line, provide your surname and in- Are All GMOs” (November/ planet by their human creators. to cows. The point of my article formative identi fication, e.g.: “Smith December 2015) and the brief And (2) natural transfers occur was to show the naturalness of the Letter on Jones evolution article.” In- report in the September/October at a far lower pace. By Shelomi’s method. As for the rate of horizon- clude your name and address at the end of the letter. You may also mail issue about Michael Specter’s talk own numbers, natural transfers tal gene transfers, I suspect they are your letter to the editor to 944 Deer on GMOs at the CFI “Reason occur about once every 1.6 mil- very, very frequent. Maybe daily, lion years per species. We see Dr. NE, Albuquerque, NM 87122. for Change” conference. if we include microbes! We have new GMOs every two years or Not covered, however, is underestimated the prevalence of so. This pace of drastic genetic the question of GMO labeling, lateral gene transfer for so long, changes to our food is most cer- which is being pushed by those who knows what the real rate is? tainly unnatural. That doesn’t opposed to GMOs and has re- In regard to Clear’s letter, the prove it’s unsafe, but it does call ceived editorial support in our “few references” I cited were me- for unbiased safety testing. local newspaper, the New Bed- ta-analyses, or reviews of many ford Standard-Times, and with R. Allen Gilliam other papers. In total nearly 3,000 the sponsoring of a petition by Longwood, Florida [!] different studies have been the Consumer’s Union. done on GMOs, and nearly all Those who support the use of The article “We Are All GMOs” found no risks. So to worry about “organic” foods argue that some makes me more nervous about GMOs is like believing vaccines of these GMOs may be harm- GMOs. The information about cause autism: cherry picking one or ful, noting particularly the use horizontal gene transfer is in- two fear-mongering papers, likely of GMO crops that resist weed- teresting, but if the fact it has retracted ones, and ignoring the killer, Monsanto’s Roundup, re- happened in the past means it is hundreds of papers revealing the

Skeptical Inquirer | March/April 2016 65 [ THE LAST LAUGH BENJAMIN RADFORD, EDITOR

SKEPTICAL ANNIVERSARIES by Tim Farley

March 3, 1951: Watch Mr. Wizard premieres on WNBQ in Chicago. March 6, 1976: Self-proclaimed demon hunters Ed and Lorraine Warren “investigate” the Amityville Horror house with a camera crew from a local TV station. March 13, 1781: The discovery of Uranus creates a bit of a crisis for astrologers, as there are no longer a perfect seven celestial bodies as assumed (five visible planets plus the sun and moon). March 18, 1981: Weekly Italian TV science program Quark premieres, hosted by CICAP founder Piero Angela. April 7, 2001: A student gives oral argument for a PhD in astrology at the University of Paris, causing protests by French skeptics (presaging the recent Australian case where a PhD was issued for a thesis promoting vaccine conspiracy theories). April 8, 2001: The Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft takes a high resolution photo of the so-called “Face on Mars,” revealing it to be merely a mesa. Even radio host Art Bell tells Richard Hoagland to admit defeat. April 9, 1991: David Shaw wins the Pulitzer Prize for Criticism for his 12,000-word series decrying his own paper’s coverage of the McMartin preschool trial, the most famous of the “Satanic Panic” cases of the 1980s. The first of the series was titled “Where Was Skepticism in Media?” April 9, 1991: An interview with James Randi in the International Herald Tribune sparks a lawsuit by Uri Geller, triggering Randi’s resignation from CSICOP and eventual creation of his own foundation. April 22, 1986: In a famous segment on The Tonight Show Starring Johnny Carson, James Randi exposes faith healer Peter Popoff’s use of a radio earpiece to fake seemingly miraculous abilities. April 30, 1976: CSICOP is founded at a conference titled “The New Irrationalism” at SUNY Buffalo.

Tim Farley is the creator of the website whatstheharm.net and blogs at skeptools.com. He is a past fellow of the James Randi Educational Foundation.

66 Volume 40 Issue 2 | Skeptical Inquirer Scientific and Technical Consultants CENTERS FOR INQUIRY www.centerforinquiry.net/about/branches Gary Bauslaugh, Univ. of California at Berkeley I.W. Kelly, Tim Printy, writer and editor, prof. of psychology, Univ. of Saskatch ewan, amateur astronomer, UFO skeptic, former Luis Alfonso Gámez, Victoria, B.C., Canada Canada Navy nuclear reactor operator/division chief, TRANSNATIONAL science journalist, Bilbao, Spain Manchester, NH 3965 Rensch Road, Amherst, NY 14228 Richard E. Berendzen, Richard H. Lange, Sylvio Garattini, Tel.: (716) 636-4869 astronomer, Washington, DC MD, Mohawk Valley Physician Daisie Radner, director, Mario Negri Pharmacology AUSTIN Health Plan, Schenectady, NY prof. of philosophy, SUNY Buffalo Martin Bridgstock, Institute, Milan, Italy PO Box 202164, Austin, TX 78720-2164 senior lecturer, School of Science, William M. London, Robert H. Romer, Susan Gerbic, Tel.: (512) 919-4115 Griffith Univ., Brisbane, Australia California State Univ., Los Angeles prof. of physics, Amherst College founder and leader of the Guerilla Skepti- CHICAGO Richard Busch, cism on Wikipedia (GSoW) project Rebecca Long, Karl Sabbagh, [email protected] magician/mentalist, Pittsburgh, PA nuclear engineer, president of Geor gia journalist, Richmond, Surrey, England Laurie Godfrey, INDIANAPOLIS Council Against Health Fraud, Atlanta, GA Shawn Carlson, anthropologist, Univ. of Massachusetts Robert J. Samp, 350 Canal Walk, Suite A, Indianapolis, IN 46202 Society for Amateur Scientists, John R. Mashey, assistant prof. of education and Tel.: (317) 423-0710 Gerald Goldin, East Greenwich, RI computer scientist/executive (Bell Labs, then medicine, Univ. of Wisconsin-Madison LOS ANGELES mathematician, Rutgers Univ., NJ Roger B. Culver, Silicon Valley), analyst of climate-change Steven D. Schafersman, 4773 Hollywood Blvd., Hollywood, CA 90027 Donald Goldsmith, prof. of astronomy, Colorado State Univ. denial, contributor to DeSmogBlog and asst. prof. of geology, Miami Univ., OH Tel.: (323) 666-9797 astronomer; president, Interstellar Media Skeptical Science, MICHIGAN Felix Ares de Blas, Chris Scott, Alan Hale, Portola Valley, CA 3777 44th Street SE, Grand Rapids, MI 49512 prof. of computer science, statistician, London, England astronomer, Southwest Institute for Space Univ. of Basque, San Sebastian, Spain Thomas R. McDonough, Tel.: (616) 698-2342 Research, Alamogordo, NM astrophysicist, Pasadena, CA Stuart D. Scott Jr., NEW YORK CITY Nahum J. Duker, associate prof. of anthropology, Clyde F. Herreid, 33-29 28th St. Astoria, NY 11106 assistant prof. of pathology, James E. McGaha, SUNY Buffalo prof. of biology, SUNY Buffalo astronomer, USAF pilot (ret.) SAN FRANCISCO Temple Univ. Erwin M. Segal, Sharon Hill, email: [email protected] Taner Edis, Joel A. Moskowitz, prof. of psychology, SUNY Buffalo geologist, writer, researcher, creator and TAMPA BAY Division of Science/Physics director of medical psychiatry, Calabasas editor of the Doubful News blog Mental Health Services, Los Angeles Carla Selby, 4011 S. Manhattan Ave. #139, Tampa, FL 33611-1277 Truman State Univ. anthropologist /archaeologist Tel.: (813) 505-7013 Gabor Hrasko, Barbara Eisenstadt, Matthew C. Nisbet, chairman of the European Council of Skepti- Steven N. Shore, WASHINGTON, DC psychologist, educator, clinician, associate professor of communication cal Organizations (ECSO), president studies, public policy, and urban affairs at prof. of astrophysics, Univ. of Pisa, Italy 1020 19th Street., NW, Suite 425 East Greenbush, NY Washington, DC 20036 of Hungarian Skeptics Northeastern University Waclaw Szybalski, William Evans, tel.: (202) 629-2403 Michael Hutchinson, Julia Offe, professor, McArdle Laboratory, Univ. prof. of communication, ARGENTINA author; SKEPTICAL INQUIRER neurobiologist, science journalist, creator of Wisconsin–Madison Center for Creative Media Buenos Aires, Argentina representative, Europe of German Science Slam Sarah G. Thomason, Bryan Farha, [email protected] Philip A. Ianna, prof. of linguistics, Univ. of Pittsburgh, PA prof. of behavioral studies in John W. Patterson, www.cfiargentina.org assoc. prof. of astronomy, prof. of materials science and education, Oklahoma City Univ. Tim Trachet, CANADA Univ. of Virginia en gineering, State Univ. journalist and science writer, honorary John F. Fischer, 55 Eglinton Ave. East, Suite 307 William Jarvis, chairman of SKEPP, Belgium forensic analyst, Orlando, FL James R. Pomerantz, Toronto, Ontario, M4P 1G8, Canada prof. of health promotion and public health, prof. of psychology, Rice Univ. David Willey, CHINA Eileen Gambrill, Loma Linda Univ., School of Public Health physics instructor, Univ. of Pittsburgh, PA China Research Institute for Science Popularization, prof. of social welfare, Gary P. Posner, MD, Tampa, FL NO. 86, Xueyuan Nanlu Haidian Dist., Beijing, 100081 China Tel.: +86-10-62170515 EGYPT Affiliated Organizations | United States 44 Gol Gamal St., Agouza, Giza, Egypt FRANCE D.C./MARYLAND MISSOURI Association for Rational Thought (ART) Dr. Henri Broch, Universite of Nice, Faculte des Alabama Skeptics, Alabama. Emory National Capital Area Skeptics NCAS, Skeptical Society of St. Louis (SSSL) Cincinnati. Roy Auerbach, president. Sciences, Parc Valrose, 06108, Nice cedex 2, Kimbrough. Tel.: 205-759-2624. 3550 Maryland, D.C., Virginia. D.W. “Chip” St. Louis, Missouri. Michael Blanford, Tel: (513)-731-2774, Email: raa@cinci. Water melon Road, Apt. 28A, Northport, Denman. Tel.: (240) 670-6227. Email: President. Email: [email protected]. rr.com. PO Box 12896, Cin cinnati, OH France Tel.: +33-492-07-63-12 AL 35476 [email protected]. PO Box 8461, Silver Spring, 2729 Ann Ave., St. Louis, MO 63104 45212. www.cincinnati skeptics.org GERMANY MD 20907-8428 http://www.ncas.org www.skepticalstl.org Arheilger Weg 11, 64380 Rossdorf, Germany ARIZONA OREGON Tel.: +49-6154-695023 Tucson Skeptics Inc. Tucson, AZ. James FLORIDA St. Joseph Skeptics Oregonians for Science and Reason Mc Gaha. Email:[email protected]. Tampa Bay Skeptics (TBS) Tampa Bay, P.O. Box 8908 (O4SR) Oregon. Jeanine DeNoma, INDIA 5100 N. Sabino Foot hills Dr., Tucson, Florida. Rick O’Keefe, contact person. St. Joseph MO, 64508-8908 president. Tel.: (541) 745-5026; Email: 46 Masi garh, New Friends Colony New Delhi 110025 AZ 85715 Tel.: 813-505-7013; Email: NEVADA [email protected]; 39105 Military Rd., [email protected]. c/o O’Keefe, Tel.: 91-9868010950 Phoenix Area Skeptics Society (PASS) Reno Skeptical Society, Inc., Monmouth, OR 97361. www.04SR.org 4011 S. Manhattan Ave. #139, Tampa, LONDON http://phoenixskeptics.org Brad Lutts, President. PENNSYLVANIA FL 33611-1277. www.tampabayskept Email: [email protected] Tel.: (775) 335-5505; Philadelphia Association for Critical Conway Hall, 25 Red Lion Square, ics.org Email: [email protected]. 18124 London WC1R 4RL, England Phoenix Skeptics, Phoenix, AZ. Michael Think ing (PhACT), Bob Glickman Pres- ILLINOIS Wedge Parkway #1052 Reno, Nevada NEPAL Stack pole, P.O. Box 60333, Phoenix, ident. 653 Garden Road Glenside PA Rational Examination Association 89511. www.RenoSkeptics.org Humanist Association of Nepal, AZ 85082 19038. 215-885-2089 E-mail: Presi- of Lincoln Land (REALL) Illinois. Bob NEW MEXICO [email protected]. Website: www.phact.org PO Box 5284, Kathmandu Nepal CALIFORNIA Ladendorf, Chairman. Tel.: 217-546- New Mexicans for Science and Reason TENNESSEE Tel.: +977-1-4413-345 Sacramento Organization for Rational 3475; Email: [email protected]. PO (NMSR) New Mexico. David E. Thomas, NEW ZEALAND Thinking (SORT) Sacramento, CA. Ray Rationalists of East Tennessee, East Box 20302, Springfield, IL 62708 www. President. Tel.: 505-869-9250; Email: email: [email protected] Spangenburg, co-founder. Tel.: 916-978- Ten nessee. Carl Ledenbecker. Tel.: reall.org [email protected]. PO Box 1017, 0321; Email: [email protected]. PO Box (865)-982-8687; Email: Aletall@aol. NIGERIA Chicago Skeptics Jennifer Newport, Peralta, NM 87042. www.nmsr.org 2215, Carmichael, CA 95609-2215 http:// com. 2123 Stony brook Rd., Louis ville, PO Box 25269, Mapo, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria contact person. Email: chicagoskeptics@ home.comcast.net/~kitray2/site/ NEW YORK TN 37777 Tel.: +234-2-2313699 gmail.com. www.chicagoskeptics.com New York City Skeptics Michael Feldman, PERU Bay Area Skeptics (BAS) San Fran- TEXAS LOUISIANA president. PO Box 5122 New York, NY cisco—Bay Area. Eugenie C. Scott, North Texas Skeptics NTS Dallas/Ft D. Casanova 430, Lima 14, Peru Baton Rouge Proponents of Rational 10185. www.nycskeptics.org President. 1218 Miluia St., Berkeley, CA Worth area, John Blanton, Secretary. email: [email protected] Inquiry and Scientific Methods 94709. Email: [email protected]. www. Tel.: (972)-306-3187; Email: skeptic@ POLAND (BR-PRISM) Louisiana. Marge Schroth. Central New York Skeptics (CNY Skeptics) BASkeptics.org ntskeptics.org. PO Box 111794, Carroll- Lokal Biurowy No. 8, 8 Sapiezynska Sr., Tel.: 225-766-4747. 425 Carriage Way, Syracuse. Lisa Goodlin, President. Tel: ton, TX 75011-1794. www.ntskeptics.org 00-215, Warsaw, Poland Independent Investigations Group (IIG), Baton Rouge, LA 70808 (315) 636-6533; Email: info@cnyskeptics. Center for Inquiry–Los Angeles, 4773 org, cnyskeptics.org PO Box 417, Fayett- VIRGINIA ROMANIA MICHIGAN Hollywood Blvd, Los Angeles, CA 90027. ville, NY 13066 The James Randi Educational Fundatia Centrul pentru Constiinta Critica Great Lakes Skeptics (GLS) SE Michi- Foun dation. James Randi, Director. Tel.: (40)-(O)744-67-67-94 Tel.: 323-666-9797. www.iighq.com OHIO gan. Lorna J. Simmons, Contact person. 2941 Fairview Park Drive, Suite 105 email: [email protected] Sacramento Skeptics Society, Sacra- Tel.: 734-525-5731; Email: Skeptic31 Central Ohioans for Rational Inquiry Falls Church, VA 22042 RUSSIA mento. Terry Sandbek, President. 4300 @aol.com. 31710 Cowan Road, Apt. (CORI) Central Ohio. Charlie Hazlett, Email: [email protected] Auburn Blvd. Suite 206, Sacramento CA 103, West land, MI 48185-2366 President. Tel.: 614-878-2742; Email: Telephone: 571-318-6530 Dr. Valerii A. Kuvakin, 119899 Russia, Moscow, 95841. Tel.: 916 489-1774. Email: terry@ [email protected]. PO Box 282069, Vorobevy Gory, Moscow State Univ., Tri-Cities Skeptics, Michi gan. Dr. Gary sandbek.com Columbus, OH 43228 Science & Reason, Hampton Rds., Philosophy Department Peterson. Tel.: 989-964-4491; Virginia. Lawrence Weinstein, Old SENEGAL San Diego Asso ciation for Rational Inquiry e-mail: [email protected]. Dominion Univ.-Physics Dept., Norfolk, (SDARI) President: Tom Pickett. Email: www.tcskeptics.blogspot.com VA 23529 PO Box 15376, Dakar – Fann, Senegal Cleveland Skeptics Joshua Hunt, Tel.: +221-501-13-00 [email protected]. Program/ Co-Organizer, www.clevelandskeptics.org general information 619-421-5844. WASHINGTON www.sdari.org. Postal ad dress: PO Box 623, MINNESOTA South Shore Skeptics (SSS) Cleveland Seattle Skeptics La Jolla, CA 92038-0623 St. Kloud Extraordinary Claim Psychic and counties. Jim Kutz. Tel.: 440 942- www.seattleskeptics.com Teaching Investigating Community 5543; Email: [email protected]. PO CONNECTICUT (SKEPTIC) St. Cloud, Minne sota. Jerry Box 5083, Cleveland, OH 44101 www. New England Skeptical Society (NESS) Mertens. Tel.: 320-255-2138; Email: southshoreskeptics.org New England. Steven Novella M.D., Presi- [email protected]. Jerry Mer- dent. Tel.: 203-281-6277; Email: board@ tens, Psychology Department, 720 4th theness.com. 64 Cobblestone Dr., Ham- Ave. S, St. Cloud State Univ., St. Cloud, den, CT 06518 www.theness.com MN 56301

C Y E The organizations listed above have aims similar to those of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry but are independent and autonomous. N I R T U E Q Representatives of these organizations cannot speak on behalf of CSI. Please send updates to Barry Karr, P.O. Box 703, Amherst NY 14226-0703. R F O R I N International affiliated organizations listed at www.csicop.org.

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