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The big gets bigger Stock Update Stock

Reliance Industries Limited’s (RIL) subsidiary Ventures Limited (RRVL) Sector: Oil & Gas announced to acquire the retail, wholesale, logistics and warehousing businesses of the Company Update on a ‘slump sale’ basis for aggregate consideration of Rs. 24,713 crore. The deal valuation of ~13.4x EV/EBITDA and 0.9x EV/sales is at a discount to industry peers and potential turnaround of Future Group’s retail business could fetch a higher valuation Change of ~20x EV/EBITDA. Moreover, likely monetisation of the stake in Reliance Retail could create meaningful value for RIL. The proposed acquisition would make Reliance Retail Reco: Buy ßà ’s largest grocery and fashion retailer in terms of revenues and increase Reliance CMP: Rs. 2,079 Retail’s total store area by ~83% to ~52.5 million sq. ft., core retail revenues by 30% and overall retail EBITDA by 19%. Additionally, higher market share (in terms of revenues), Price Target: Rs. 2,400 ßà the sheer size of operations and enhanced sourcing and warehousing capabilities would increase the bargaining power with suppliers and improve margins of Reliance Retail. á Upgrade ßà No change â Downgrade Hence, we maintain our Buy rating on RIL with an unchanged SoTP based price target (PT) of Rs. 2,400. Company details RRVL to acquire Future Group’s retail business for Rs. 24,713 crore – to become India’s largest retailer; deal valuation of 13.4x FY20 EV/EBITDA at discount to peers: RRVL, a subsidiary of RIL, announced to acquire retail, wholesale, logistics and warehousing Market cap: Rs. 1,317,677 cr businesses of the Future Group on a ‘slump sale’ basis for aggregate consideration of Rs. 24,713 crore. The acquisition requires the Future Group to merge certain companies 52-week high/low: Rs. 2,199/868 (Future Retail, Future Lifestyle, Future Consumer, Future Supply Chain and Future Market Networks) into Future Enterprises Limited (FEL). Additionally, Reliance Retail and Fashion NSE volume: Lifestyle Limited (RRFLL) would also make two other investments – 1) Rs. 1200 crore in the 224 lakh (No of shares) preferential issue of equity shares of FEL to acquire 6.1% of post-merger equity and 2) Rs. 400 crore in a preferential issue of equity warrants which, upon conversion and payment BSE code: 500325 of balance 75% of the issue price, will result in RRFLL acquiring further a 7.05% of FEL. The slump sale consideration of Rs. 24,713 crore includes Rs. 5654 crore in cash for supply chain & warehousing and retail business while the remaining amount would be towards NSE code: RELIANCE transfer of borrowings, contingent liability and creditors. The proposed acquisition would make Reliance Retail the largest grocery and fashion retailer in terms of revenues and Sharekhan code: RELIANCE increase Reliance Retail’s total store area by ~83% to ~52.5mn sq. ft., core retail revenues by 30% and overall retail EBITDA by 19%. The deal implies a valuation of 13.4x EV/EBITDA Free float: and 0.9x EV/Sales on FY2020 basis, which is at a discount to peers for the grocery business 335.6 cr (No of shares) such as Avenue Supermarts (EV/EBITDA of 64x and EV/Sales of 5.5x on FY2020 basis) and for fashion & lifestyle business such as (EV/EBITDA of 33.7x and EV/Sales of 7.6x on FY2020 basis). Shareholding (%) Our Call Valuation – Maintain Buy on RIL with unchanged SoTP based PT of Rs. 2,400: We believe Promoters 50.4 that RIL-FEL deal is value accretive for RIL given the deal has been done at an attractive valuation and would help Reliance Retail to further consolidate and gain market share in FII 24.7 Indian retail space. With a strong management, we believe that RIL could turnaround the retail business of Future Group and post that the business would fetch a higher valuation DII 13.6 of ~20x EV/EBITDA. Additionally, potential monetisation of stake in Reliance Retail would drive a meaningful upside for RIL from the Future Group deal. We expect a strong PAT CAGR of 20% over FY2020-FY2022E driven by robust growth for its digital services and Others 11.3 retail businesses. RIL’s balance sheet is strong (post the recent fund raising) and free cash flow (FCF) generation is expected to remain strong as the company has completed major capex cycle. The potential listing of Jio and stake sale in the retail business could further Price chart unlock value from consumer centric business and create long-term wealth for investors. Hence, we maintain our Buy rating on RIL with an unchanged SoTP-based PT of Rs. 2,400. 2500 2000 Key Risks Lower-than-expected refining and petrochemical margins in case of global capacity 1500 additions surpass incremental demand. Slower-than-expected subscriber additions, tepid 1000 ramp-up of broadband services and slowdown in retail business amid COVID-19 could impact earnings and valuations. 500 19

20 Valuation (Consolidated) Rs cr 20 20 - - - -

Jan Particulars FY2019 FY2020 FY2021E FY2022E FY2023E Apr Sep Aug Revenues 5,67,135 5,96,743 5,26,950 6,21,196 7,02,401 OPM (%) 14.8 14.8 17.3 18.4 18.9 Price performance Adjusted PAT 39,837 44,324 45,715 63,302 74,242 (%) 1m 3m 6m 12m Adjusted EPS (Rs.) 67.3 74.9 77.2 93.6 109.8 y-o-y change (%) 13.8 11.3 3.1 21.2 17.3 Absolute 3 37 58 72 PER (x) 30.9 27.8 26.9 22.2 18.9 EV/EBIDTA (x) 14.0 13.3 12.9 10.3 8.9 Relative to -1 21 57 67 Sensex RoCE (%) 9.7 9.6 9.5 11.5 12.1 RoNW (%) 10.3 9.8 8.6 10.0 9.8 Sharekhan Research, Bloomberg Source: Company; Sharekhan estimates

August 31, 2020 2 Stock Update Stock

Deal valuation of 13.4x EV/EBITDA and 0.9x EV/sales at discount to industry peers: Reliance Retail Ventures Limited (RRVL), subsidiary of RIL, announced that it would acquire the retail & wholesale business (to be transferred to Reliance Retail and Fashion Lifestyle Limited) and the logistics & warehousing business (to be transferred to RRVL) from the Future Group on a ‘slump sale’ basis for lumpsum aggregate consideration of Rs. 24,713 crore (subject to the composite scheme of arrangement between two groups). The acquisition requires Future Group to merge certain companies (Future Retail, Future Lifestyle, Future Consumer, Future Supply chain and Future Market Networks) into Future Enterprises Limited (FEL). Additionally, Reliance Retail and Fashion Lifestyle Limited would also make two other investments – 1) Rs. 1200 crore in the preferential issue of equity shares of FEL to acquire 6.1% of post-merger equity and 2) Rs. 400 crore in a preferential issue of equity warrants which, upon conversion and payment of balance 75% of the issue price, will result in RRFLL acquiring further a 7.05% of FEL. The slump sale consideration of Rs. 24,713 crore includes Rs. 5654 crore in cash for supply chain & warehousing and retail business while the remaining amount would be towards transfer of borrowings, contingent liability and creditors. The implied deal valuation works out to 13.4x FY2020 EV/EBITDA given combined EBITDA of Rs. 1,841 crore adjusted for lease accounting under IND-AS 116 (for Future Retail, Future Lifestyle, Future Consumer, Future Supply chain and Future Market Networks) in FY2020 and an EV of Rs. 24,713 crore (implied equity value of Rs. 5,654 crore assuming debt and liabilities of ~Rs. 19,060 crore for businesses being sold to RIL). Deal valuation on EV/sales basis is at 0.9x FY2020 for businesses to be acquired by RIL. The deal valuation is at discount to valuation for Indian retail companies (mainly engaged into grocery and fashion & lifestyle formats) and realignment of valuation (post potential turnaround of retail business of Future Group) to industry averages (~20x EV/EBITDA) and potential monetisation of stake in retail business would drive meaningful upside for RIL from Future Group deal.

Deal value implies EV/EBITDA of 13.4x at discount to industry peers FY2020 EBITDA (pre-IND AS 116) Rs. crore Future Retail 910 Future Lifestyle 509 Future Consumer 209 Future Supply chain 142 Future Market Networks 70 Total FY2020 EBITDA 1,841 EV 24,713 Implied EV/EBITDA (x) 13.4 EV/Sales (x) 0.9 Total debt of businesses to be sold to RIL 19,060 Implied equity value of the business to be sold to RIL 5,654 Source: Sharekhan Research; Note: Future Retail EBITDA for 9MFY2020

Acquisition to make Reliance Retail largest grocery and fashion retailer in revenues terms and drive meaningful synergies with enhanced sourcing and warehousing capabilities: The proposed acquisition of Future Group’s retail business would make Reliance Retail the largest retail entities across grocery and fashion formats and help it further gain market share in the Indian retail market (estimated at $800-850 billion). The acquisition would expand Reliance Retail’s footprint, driving up the total retail area by ~83% to ~52.5 million square feet, boost core retail turnover by 30% and overall retail EBITDA by 19%. By virtue of this deal, RIL would get prime offline retail assets - Future Retail has more than 1,388 stores (across food, fashion and grocery formats with area of >16 million sq. ft), Future Lifestyle also has 348 outlets and area of ~7.7mn Sq. ft. and Future Supply Chain owns >7.7 million sq. ft. of warehousing capacity. Additionally, higher market share (in terms of revenues) and the sheer size of operations would increase the bargaining power with suppliers, which would help expand margins for Reliance Retail. We believe that the deal is strategic fit to RIL’s offline-online retailing strategy and also complements the company’s New Commerce initiative by getting access to warehousing and supply chain assets of Future Group.

August 31, 2020 3 Stock Update Stock

Future Group entities has strong band and presence across India Revenue Retail space Particulars (FY2020) Stores Major Brands (Rs. crore) (mn sq. ft.) Future Retail 15,839 1388 16.1 , FBB, Club Future Lifestyle 6,297 348 7.7 CENTRAL, Future Consumer 4,040 - - Tasty Treat, GOLDEN HARVEST, KARMIQ Future Supply chain 1,141 134 7.7 Future Market Networks 127 - - Total 27445 1870 32 Source: Company; Sharekhan Research, Note: Future Retail revenues for 9MFY2020

Reliance Retails’ stores count to grow by 15% post acquisition of Future Group’s retail business Store count (FY2020) Reliance Retail Future Retail Future Lifestyle Post-merger Increase (%) Consumer Electronics 8,601 4 0 8,605 0.0% Fashion & Lifestyle 2,386 95 348 2,829 18.6% Grocery 797 1,289 0 2,086 161.7% Total 11,784 1,388 348 13,520 14.7% Source: Company; Sharekhan Research; Note: Future Retail store count as on December-2020

Reliance Retail’s core revenues (excluding connectivity and petroleum sales) to grow by 30% post-merger Rs cr Reliance Retail Future Retail Future Lifestyle Revenues Post-merger Increase (%) (FY20A) (FY20P) (FY20A) Consumer Electronics 44,625 0 0 44,625 0% Fashion & Lifestyle 13,552 4,000 6,297 23,849 76% Grocery 34,601 17,119 0 51,720 49% Total 92,778 21,119 6,297 1,20,194 30% Source: Company; Sharekhan Research, Note: Future Retail’s 9MFY2020 revenues has been annualised to arrive at FY20P number

Reliance Retail’s overall EBITDA to grow by 19% on FY2020 EBITDA of Rs. 9,654 crore EBITDA (FY2020) Rs. crore Reliance Retail 9,654 Future Retail 910 Future Lifestyle 509 Future Consumer 209 Future Supply chain 142 Future Market Networks 70 Post-merger EBITDA 11,495 Increase (%) 19% Source: Company; Sharekhan Research; Note: Future Retail’s EBITDA for 9MFY2020

August 31, 2020 4 Stock Update Stock

Largest grocery retialers with combined store count of 2,086 Highest revnues in grocery format (2x of secong largest competitor)

60,000 2,500 51,720 2,086 50,000 2,000 40,000 34,601 1,500 1,289 30,000 24,675 797 1,000 crore Rs 17,119 20,000

500 214 10,000

0 0 Reliance Retail Future Retail Combined Avenue Reliance Retail Future Retail Combined Avenue (Reliance Retail Supermarts (Reliance Retail Supermarts + Future Retail) + Future Retail) Grocery Stores Revenues

Source: Company, Sharekhan Research Source: Company, Sharekhan Research

Fashion & lifestyle format: Second-largest in terms of store count Largest fashion & lifestyle retailer by revenues

3,500 3,004 30,000 2,829 23,849 3,000 2,386 25,000 2,500 20,000 2,000 13,552 15,000 1,500 8,743

Rs crore Rs 10,000 6,297 1,000 348 4,000 3,178 500 95 245 5,000 0 0

Reliance Future Future Combined Trent ABRFL … Trent

Retail Retail Lifestyle (Reliance ABRFL Retail + Future Future Retail

Retail + Reliance Retail Future Lifestyle Retail + Future + Future Retail

Future + Future Retail Lifestyle) (Reliance Combined Fashion & Lifestyle stores Revenues Source: Company, Sharekhan Research Source: Company, Sharekhan Research

RIL-FEL deal valuation of 13.4x EV/EBITDA and 0.9x EV/Sales on FY2020 basis is at a discount to valuation for peers

70.0 64.2

60.0

50.0

40.0 33.7

30.0

20.0 13.4 12.9 7.6 10.0 5.5 0.9 1.8 0.0 RIL-FEL deal Avenue Supermarkets Trent Aditya Birla Fashion FY2020 EV/EBITDA (x) FY2020 EV/sales (x)

Source: Company; Sharekhan Research

August 31, 2020 5 Stock Update Stock

Financials in charts

GRM to expected to recover gradually Refining throughput and utilization

14.0 70.5 113% 113% 11.6 70.0 12.0 11.0 112% 112%112% 69.5 111% 9.2 69.0 10.0 8.9 8.6 8.0 68.5 110% 110% 8.0 110% 68.0 109% 70.1 69.8

$/bbl 69.8 6.0 67.5 108% 108% Million tons Million 67.0 68.3 68.5 4.0 107% 66.5 67.3 106% 2.0 66.0 65.5 105% 0.0 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E GRM Refining throughput Utilisation rate Source: Company, Sharekhan Research Source: Company, Sharekhan Research

Petchem EBIT margin to moderate EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 14%/20% over FY20-FY22E

18.7% 140,000 45.0 17.6% 20.0% 16.9% 114,299 40.0 18.0% 120,000 14.0% 14.1% 16.0% 35.0 13.5% 100,000 91,121 83,918 88,217 30.0 14.0% 12.0% 80,000 25.0 64,176 63,302 10.0% 20.0 60,000 37.7 38.1 38.5 39.2 8.0% 46,194 44,324 45,715

Rs crore Rs 39,837

Million tons Million 32.5 34,993 15.0 40,000 29,833 24.9 6.0% 10.0 4.0% 20,000 5.0 2.0% 0.0 0.0% 0 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E Petchem production Petchem EBIT margin EBITDA PAT

Source: Company, Sharekhan Research Source: Company, Sharekhan Research

RoE Trend RoCE Trend

14.0 14.0 11.9 11.5 11.2 12.0 10.6 12.0 10.3 9.8 10.0 9.3 9.7 9.6 9.5 10.0 8.6 10.0 8.0 8.0 % % 6.0 6.0

4.0 4.0

2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E RoE RoCE

Source: Company, Sharekhan Research Source: Company, Sharekhan Research

August 31, 2020 6 Stock Update Stock

Outlook Downstream margin to remain weak; financials of digital services to improve as ARPU rises: COVID-19 has affected demand for petroleum products globally and resultantly crack spreads, especially on gasoline and aviation turbine fuel (ATF) are expected to remain weak in the near term until the demand-supply situation normalises. However, depreciation of the Indian rupee would partially cushion weak refining margins. In line with incumbent telecom operators, Reliance Jio has also hiked telecom tariff rates, which indicates the end of the tariff war and paves way for an improvement in ARPU. We believe that the next leg of growth for RIL would be driven by an improvement in earnings contribution from ramp-up of fibre broadband services, enterprise business and new commerce. Additionally, the company’s unique online-offline retailing strategy would aid growth and drive margins of the retail business. Moreover, media reports are indicating that Indian government has also approved investment of Rs25,215 crore by Brookfield Infrastructure Partners and its institutional partners in Tower InvIT of Reliance Jio Infratel Pvt Ltd and the same would help in monetization of tower assets of Jio. Valuation Maintain Buy on RIL with unchanged SoTP based PT of Rs. 2,400: We believe that RIL-FEL deal is value accretive for RIL given the deal has been done at an attractive valuation and would help Reliance Retail to further consolidate and gain market share in Indian retail space. With a strong management, we believe that RIL could turnaround the retail business of Future Group and post that the business would fetch a higher valuation of ~20x EV/EBITDA. Additionally, potential monetisation of stake in Reliance Retail would drive a meaningful upside for RIL from the Future Group deal. We expect a strong PAT CAGR of 20% over FY2020-FY2022E driven by robust growth for its digital services and retail businesses. RIL’s balance sheet is strong (post the recent fund raising) and free cash flow (FCF) generation is expected to remain strong as the company has completed major capex cycle. The potential listing of Jio and stake sale in the retail business could further unlock value from consumer centric business and create long-term wealth for investors. Hence, we maintain our Buy rating on RIL with an unchanged SoTP-based PT of Rs. 2,400.

One-year forward P/E (x) band

30.0

25.0

20.0

P/E(x) 15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0 13 16 19 12 15 18 12 15 18 11 14 17 11 14 17 11 14 17 20 12 16 19 15 18 13 16 19 13 20 13 16 19 ------Jul Jul Jul Jan Jan Jan Jun - Jun - Jun - Oct Oct Oct Apr Apr Apr Apr Feb Sep Sep Dec Dec Dec Aug Aug Nov Nov Nov Mar Mar May May May P/E (x) Avg. P/E (x) Peak P/E (x) Trough P/E (x)

Source: Sharekhan Research

RIL SoTP based PT of Rs.2,400 Particulars Methodology Value per share (Rs/share) Refining 7x FY22E EV/EBITDA 236 Petrochem 7x FY22E EV/EBITDA 317 Upstream EV/BOE 50 Retail 21x FY22E EV/EBITDA 664 Digital Services 15.5x FY22E EV/EBITDA 911 Others 31 Enterprise Value 2,209 Net Debt (191) Price target 2,400 Source: Sharekhan Research

August 31, 2020 7 Stock Update Stock

About company RIL is a diversified with business interests across oil refining, petrochemicals, exploration and production, retail and digital services. The company has one of the world’s largest refining assets with high Nelson complexity level and an integrated petrochemical complex. RIL launched its telecom services, under the brand JIO, in September 2016 and this business has already started reporting profits. Core businesses of refining and petrochemicals accounted for ~60% of consolidated EBITDA in FY2020, while customer-centric businesses (retail and digital services) contributed 35% to consolidated EBITDA.

Investment theme RIL has completed its capital expenditure for expansion of downstream capacities, which have already started yielding strong earnings growth. Improving growth prospects of telecom business with potential ARPU hike and ramp-up of broadband services in digital business and sustained high growth in retail business would be key catalysts for long-term value creation. RIL’s balance sheet has strengthened with recent fund raising and the company has become virtually net debt free. The company target to increase share of EBITDA from consumer centric to 50% over next few years bodes well for RIL amid volatility in refining and petrochemical margins. Potential listing of Reliance Jio and Reliance Retail could create long-term value for investors.

Key Risks Š Lower-than-expected refining and petrochemical margins in case global capacity additions surpass incremental demand. Š Slower-than-expected pace of subscriber addition and ramp-up of broadband services and slowdown in retail business could impact earnings and valuations.

Additional Data

Key management personnel Mukesh D. Ambani Chairman & Managing Director Alok Agarwal Chief Financial Officer PMS Prasad Executive Director Source: Bloomberg

Top 10 shareholders Sr. No. Holder Name Holding (%) 1 Life Corp of India 5.9 2 Capital Group Cos Inc/The 4.3 3 FMR LLC 2.3 4 Vanguard Group Inc/The 1.8 5 SBI Funds Management Pvt Ltd 1.4 6 BlackRock Inc 1.3 7 Republic of Singapore 1.2 8 Dimensional Fund Advisors LP 0.7 9 Investor Education and Protection Fund 0.5 10 Norges Bank 0.5 Source: Bloomberg

Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a position in the companies mentioned in the article.

August 31, 2020 8 Know more about our products and services

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