DOCSLIB.ORG

The Life Outcomes of Personality Replication (LOOPR) Project Was Therefore Conducted to Estimate the Replicability of the Personality-Outcome Literature

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
The Life Outcomes of Personality Replication (LOOPR) Project Was Therefore Conducted to Estimate the Replicability of the Personality-Outcome Literature PSSXXX10.1177/0956797619831612SotoReplicability of Trait–Outcome Associations 831612research-article2019 ASSOCIATION FOR Research Article PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE Psychological Science 2019, Vol. 30(5) 711 –727 How Replicable Are Links Between © The Author(s) 2019 Article reuse guidelines: sagepub.com/journals-permissions Personality Traits and Consequential DOI:https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797619831612 10.1177/0956797619831612 Life Outcomes? The Life Outcomes of www.psychologicalscience.org/PS Personality Replication Project TC Christopher J. Soto Department of Psychology, Colby College Abstract The Big Five personality traits have been linked to dozens of life outcomes. However, metascientific research has raised questions about the replicability of behavioral science. The Life Outcomes of Personality Replication (LOOPR) Project was therefore conducted to estimate the replicability of the personality-outcome literature. Specifically, I conducted preregistered, high-powered (median N = 1,504) replications of 78 previously published trait–outcome associations. Overall, 87% of the replication attempts were statistically significant in the expected direction. The replication effects were typically 77% as strong as the corresponding original effects, which represents a significant decline in effect size. The replicability of individual effects was predicted by the effect size and design of the original study, as well as the sample size and statistical power of the replication. These results indicate that the personality-outcome literature provides a reasonably accurate map of trait–outcome associations but also that it stands to benefit from efforts to improve replicability. Keywords Big Five, life outcomes, metascience, personality traits, replication, open data, open materials, preregistered Received 7/6/18; Revision accepted 11/29/18 Do personality characteristics reliably predict conse- effort to estimate the replicability of the personality- quential life outcomes? A sizable research literature has outcome literature. Specifically, we attempted prereg- identified links between the Big Five personality traits istered, high-powered replications of 78 previously and dozens of outcomes (Ozer & Benet-Martinez, 2006; published associations between the Big Five traits and Roberts, Kuncel, Shiner, Caspi, & Goldberg, 2007). On a diverse set of consequential life outcomes. the basis of this personality-outcome literature, econo- mists, educators, and policymakers have proposed initia- Personality Traits and Consequential tives to promote well-being through positive personality development (Chernyshenko, Kankaraš, & Drasgow, Life Outcomes 2018; Kautz, Heckman, Diris, ter Weel, & Borghans, A personality trait is a characteristic pattern of thinking, 2014; Organisation for Economic Co-operation and feeling, or behaving that tends to be consistent over Development, 2015; Primi, Santos, John, & De Fruyt, time and across relevant situations (Allport, 1961). The 2016). However, recent metascientific research has world’s languages include thousands of adjectives for raised questions about the replicability of behavioral describing personality, many of which can be organized science (Button et al., 2013; Camerer et al., 2016; Cova et al., 2018; Open Science Collaboration, 2015; Simmons, Corresponding Author: Nelson, & Simonsohn, 2011; Vul, Harris, Winkielman, Christopher J. Soto, Colby College, Department of Psychology, 5550 & Pashler, 2009). We therefore conducted the Life Out- Mayflower Hill, Waterville, ME 04901 comes of Personality Replication (LOOPR) Project, an E-mail: [email protected] 712 Soto in terms of the Big Five trait dimensions: Extraversion (e.g., that are unlikely to be replicable (Fraley & Vazire, 2014; sociable, assertive, and energetic vs. quiet and reserved), Franco, Malhotra, & Simonovits, 2014; Rossi, 1990; Simmons Agreeableness (e.g., compassionate, respectful, and trust- et al., 2011; Sterling et al., 1995; Tversky & Kahneman, ing vs. rude and suspicious), Conscientiousness (e.g., 1971). orderly, hardworking, and responsible vs. disorganized Recently, large-scale replication projects have begun and unreliable), Negative Emotionality (or Neuroticism; to empirically test these concerns. For example, the e.g., worrying, pessimistic, and temperamental vs. calm Reproducibility Project: Psychology (RPP) attempted to and stable), and Open-Mindedness (or Openness to Expe- replicate 100 studies published in high-impact psychol- rience; e.g., intellectual, artistic, and imaginative vs. incuri- ogy journals. Despite high statistical power, the RPP ous and uncreative; De Raad, Perugini, Hrebícková, & observed a replication success rate of only 36% (when Szarota, 1998; Goldberg, 1993; John, Naumann, & Soto, success was defined as a statistically significant result 2008). in the expected direction) and found that the replica- The Big Five constitute the most widely used frame- tion effects were, on average, only half as strong as the work for conceptualizing and measuring personality original effects (Open Science Collaboration, 2015). traits (Almlund, Duckworth, Heckman, & Kautz, 2011; Similar projects in economics and experimental phi- John et al., 2008). This scientific consensus reflects their losophy have also obtained replicability estimates con- usefulness for organizing personality-descriptive lan- siderably lower than would be expected in the absence guage, as well as a substantial research literature linking of published false positives, although results have var- the Big Five with life outcomes. The most comprehen- ied somewhat across projects (Camerer et al., 2016; sive literature review conducted to date summarized Cova et al., 2018). These findings reinforce concerns associations between the Big Five and dozens of indi- about the replicability of behavioral science and sug- vidual, interpersonal, and social-institutional outcomes gest that replicability may vary both between and within (Ozer & Benet-Martinez, 2006). For example, research disciplines. For example, replicability appears to be has linked high Extraversion to social status and leader- higher for original studies that (a) examined main effects ship capacity, Agreeableness to volunteerism and relation- rather than interactions, (b) reported intuitive rather ship satisfaction, Conscientiousness to job performance than surprising results, and (c) obtained a greater effect and health, Negative Emotionality to relationship conflict size, sample size, and strength of evidence (Camerer and psychopathology, and Open-Mindedness to spiritu- et al., 2016; Cova et al., 2018; Open Science Collaboration, ality and political liberalism. 2015). The Replicability of Behavioral Science The LOOPR Project Drawing on both conceptual and empirical evidence, In sum, previous research suggests that the Big Five recent metascientific research (i.e., the scientific study personality traits relate to many consequential life out- of science itself) has raised questions about the repli- comes, but it also raises questions about the replicability cability of behavioral science—the likelihood that inde- of behavioral science. We therefore conducted the LOOPR pendent researchers conducting similar studies will Project to estimate the replicability of the personality- obtain similar results. Conceptually, this work has outcome literature. Specifically, we attempted to repli- focused on researcher degrees of freedom, statistical cate 78 previously published trait–outcome associations power, and publication bias. Researcher degrees of and then used the replication results to test two descrip- freedom represent undisclosed flexibility in the design, tive hypotheses. First, we hypothesized that trait– analysis, and reporting of a scientific study (Simmons outcome associations would be less than perfectly et al., 2011). Statistical power is the probability of replicable because of the likelihood of published false obtaining a statistically significant result when the effect positives and biased reporting of effect sizes. Second, being tested truly exists in the population (Cohen, we hypothesized that the replicability of the personality- 1988). Publication bias occurs when journals selectively outcome literature may be greater than the estimates publish studies with statistically significant results, obtained by previous large-scale replication projects in thereby producing a literature that underrepresents null psychology because of normative practices in personal- results (Sterling, Rosenbaum, & Weinkam, 1995). Mul- ity research (e.g., using relatively large samples to tiple observers have expressed concern that much examine the main effects of personality traits). We also behavioral science is characterized by many researcher conducted exploratory analyses to search for predictors degrees of freedom, modest statistical power, and of replicability, tentatively hypothesizing that original strong publication bias, leading to the publication of studies with greater effect size, sample size, and strength numerous false-positive results—that is, statistical flukes of evidence, as well as replication attempts with greater Replicability of Trait–Outcome Associations 713 sample size and statistical power, may yield greater administering the same outcome measure used in the replicability. original study or a subset of the original measures. For some outcomes, it involved adapting interview items Method to a questionnaire format or constructing items on the basis of the information available
Load more

Recommended publications
  • The Reproducibility Crisis in Research and Open Science Solutions Andrée Rathemacher University of Rhode Island, [email protected] Creative Commons License
    University of Rhode Island DigitalCommons@URI Technical Services Faculty Presentations Technical Services 2017 "Fake Results": The Reproducibility Crisis in Research and Open Science Solutions Andrée Rathemacher University of Rhode Island, [email protected] Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Follow this and additional works at: http://digitalcommons.uri.edu/lib_ts_presentations Part of the Scholarly Communication Commons, and the Scholarly Publishing Commons Recommended Citation Rathemacher, Andrée, ""Fake Results": The Reproducibility Crisis in Research and Open Science Solutions" (2017). Technical Services Faculty Presentations. Paper 48. http://digitalcommons.uri.edu/lib_ts_presentations/48http://digitalcommons.uri.edu/lib_ts_presentations/48 This Speech is brought to you for free and open access by the Technical Services at DigitalCommons@URI. It has been accepted for inclusion in Technical Services Faculty Presentations by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@URI. For more information, please contact [email protected]. “Fake Results” The Reproducibility Crisis in Research and Open Science Solutions “It can be proven that most claimed research findings are false.” — John P. A. Ioannidis, 2005 Those are the words of John Ioannidis (yo-NEE-dees) in a highly-cited article from 2005. Now based at Stanford University, Ioannidis is a meta-scientist who conducts “research on research” with the goal of making improvements. Sources: Ionnidis, John P. A. “Why Most
    [Show full text]
  • 1 Maximizing the Reproducibility of Your Research Open
    1 Maximizing the Reproducibility of Your Research Open Science Collaboration1 Open Science Collaboration (in press). Maximizing the reproducibility of your research. In S. O. Lilienfeld & I. D. Waldman (Eds.), Psychological Science Under Scrutiny: Recent Challenges and Proposed Solutions. New York, NY: Wiley. Authors’ Note: Preparation of this chapter was supported by the Center for Open Science and by a Veni Grant (016.145.049) awarded to Hans IJzerman. Correspondence can be addressed to Brian Nosek, [email protected]. 1 Alexander A. Aarts, Nuenen, The Netherlands; Frank A. Bosco, Virginia Commonwealth University; Katherine S. Button, University of Bristol; Joshua Carp, Center for Open Science; Susann Fiedler, Max Planck Institut for Research on Collective Goods; James G. Field, Virginia Commonwealth University; Roger Giner-Sorolla, University of Kent; Hans IJzerman, Tilburg University; Melissa Lewis, Center for Open Science; Marcus Munafò, University of Bristol; Brian A. Nosek, University of Virginia; Jason M. Prenoveau, Loyola University Maryland; Jeffrey R. Spies, Center for Open Science 2 Commentators in this book and elsewhere describe evidence that modal scientific practices in design, analysis, and reporting are interfering with the credibility and veracity of the published literature (Begley & Ellis, 2012; Ioannidis, 2005; Miguel et al., 2014; Simmons, Nelson, & Simonsohn, 2011). The reproducibility of published findings is unknown (Open Science Collaboration, 2012a), but concern that is lower than desirable is widespread -
    [Show full text]
  • The Reproducibility Crisis in Scientific Research
    James Madison University JMU Scholarly Commons Senior Honors Projects, 2010-current Honors College Spring 2019 The reproducibility crisis in scientific esearr ch Sarah Eline Follow this and additional works at: https://commons.lib.jmu.edu/honors201019 Part of the Medicine and Health Sciences Commons, and the Statistics and Probability Commons Recommended Citation Eline, Sarah, "The reproducibility crisis in scientific esearr ch" (2019). Senior Honors Projects, 2010-current. 667. https://commons.lib.jmu.edu/honors201019/667 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Honors College at JMU Scholarly Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Senior Honors Projects, 2010-current by an authorized administrator of JMU Scholarly Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Running Head: REPRODUCIBILITY CRISIS 1 The Reproducibility Crisis in Scientific Research Sarah Eline Senior Honors Thesis Running Head: REPRODUCIBILITY CRISIS 2 While evidence-based medicine has its origins well before the 19th century, it was not until the beginning of the 1990s that it began dominating the field of science. Evidence-based practice is defined as “the conscientious and judicious use of current best evidence in conjunction with clinical expertise and patient values to guide health care decisions” (Titler, 2008, para. 3). In 1992, only two journal articles mentioned the phrase evidence-based medicine; however just five years later, that number rose to over 1000. In a very short period of time, evidence-based medicine had evolved to become synonymous with the practices that encompassed the medical field (Sackett, 1996). With evidence-based medicine came a decline in qualitative research and a shift towards quantitative research.
    [Show full text]
  • Replicability, Robustness, and Reproducibility in Psychological Science
    1 Replicability, Robustness, and Reproducibility in Psychological Science Brian A. Nosek Center for Open Science; University of Virginia Tom E. Hardwicke University of Amsterdam Hannah Moshontz University of Wisconsin-Madison Aurélien Allard University of California, Davis Katherine S. Corker Grand Valley State University Anna Dreber Stockholm School of Economics; University of Innsbruck Fiona Fidler University of Melbourne Joe Hilgard Illinois State University Melissa Kline Struhl Center for Open Science Michèle Nuijten Meta-Research Center; Tilburg University Julia Rohrer Leipzig University Felipe Romero University of Groningen Anne Scheel Eindhoven University of Technology Laura Scherer University of Colorado Denver - Anschutz Medical Campus Felix Schönbrodt Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, LMU Open Science Center Simine Vazire University of Melbourne In press at the Annual Review of Psychology Final version Completed: April 6, 2021 Authors’ note: B.A.N. and M.K.S. are employees of the nonprofit Center for Open Science that has a mission to increase openness, integrity, and reproducibility of research. K.S.C. is the unpaid executive officer of the nonprofit Society for the Improvement of Psychological Science. This work was supported by grants to B.A.N. from Arnold Ventures, John Templeton Foundation, Templeton World Charity Foundation, and Templeton Religion Trust. T.E.H. received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 841188. We thank Adam Gill for assistance creating Figures 1, 2, and S2. Data, materials, and code are available at https://osf.io/7np92/. B.A.N. Drafted the outline and manuscript sections, collaborated with section leads on conceptualizing and drafting their components, coded replication study outcomes for Figure 1, coded journal policies for Figure 5.
    [Show full text]
  • 2015 Las Vegas, NV
    WESTERN PSYCHOLOGICAL ASSOCIATION APRIL 30-MAY 3, 2015 RED ROCK RESORT – LAS VEGAS, NEVADA PDF PROGRAM LISTING This program was updated on the date shown below. Additional changes changes may occur prior to the convention. Information on the Terman Teaching Conference on April 29 may be downloaded on the WPA website. A daily schedule for the Film Festival is now included in this version of the program. WPA will have an event app for use on your computer, tablet, and/or smart phone. The app includes a scheduling feature to allow you to plan sessions you wish to attend. There is also a tracking feature to find sessions of particular interest to you. The app is available: eventmobi.com/wpa2015. You do not need the app store to download. Date of release: March 29, 2015 Updated: April 27, 2015 Thursday 4 THURSDAY, APRIL 30 2015 WPA FILM FESTIVAL - THURSDAY 8:00 a.m. - 9:00 p.m. Veranda D Time Name of Film Running Time (in minutes) MORAL DEVELOPMENT 8:00 a.m. Born to be Good 51 BULLYING 9:00 The Boy Game 16 COUPLES, RELATIONSHIPS, & DIVORCE 9:15 Seeking Asian Female 53 10:15 Split: Divorce through Kids’ Eyes 28 ADOPTION 10:45 Somewhere Between 88 NEUROPSYCHOLOGY 12:15 p.m. Where am I? 44 1:00 Genetic Me 52 TRAUMA & POST-TRAUMATIC STRESS DISORDER 2:00 Homecoming: Conversations with Combat PTSD 29 2:30 When I Came Home 70 3:45 Land of Opportunity 97 ENCORE! ENCORE! ***WINNERS OF THE 2014 WPA FILM FESTIVAL*** 6:45 In the Shadow of the Sun 85 8:15 School's Out - Lessons from a Forest Kindergarten 36 Thursday 5 POSTER SESSION 1 8:00-9:15 RED ROCK BALLROOM ABC DEVELOPMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY 1 EDUCATION ISSUES 1 1–̵1 PARENTAL BOUNDARIES ON TODDLER TECHNOLOGY-USE IN THE HOME, Deanndra D Pimentel (Alaska Pacific University) 1–2 NEW BABYSITTERS: TECHNOLOGY USE IN RESTAURANTS BY GENDER OF CAREGIVER, Edwin O.
    [Show full text]
  • Open Psychology: Transparency and Reproducibility Psicología Abierta
    Psicología, Conocimiento y Sociedad - 9(2), 318-330 (noviembre 2019-abril 2020) – Revisiones ISSN: 1688-7026 Open Psychology: transparency and reproducibility Psicología abierta: transparencia y reproducibilidad Psicologia Aberta: transparência e reprodutibilidade Maarten Derksen ORCID ID: 0000-0003-1572-4709 University of Groningen, Países Bajos Autor referente: [email protected] Historia editorial Recibido: 28/02/2019 Aceptado: 19/09/2019 ABSTRACT I describe the attempt by a group of Project. According to the Open psychologists to reform the discipline Psychologists, the neglect of replication into an Open Science (which I will call is at the core of Psychology's current 'Open Psychology'). I will first argue problems, and their online infrastructure that their particular version of Open offers the perfect framework to facilitate Science reflects the problems that gave replication and give it a place in the rise to it and that it tries to solve. Then I field's research process. But replication, will describe the infrastructure that this I will argue, is not just an group of people is putting in place to epistemological, methodological issue: facilitate transparency. An important it implies a particular ontology and tries function of this infrastructure is to to enact it. The Reproducibility Project, restrict what are called 'researcher and Open Psychology generally, can be degrees of freedom'. In Psychology, considered as social experiments, that transparency is as much about closing attempt not only to reform Psychology, down as it is about opening up. I will but also to perform a new psychological then focus on the flagship project of object. Open Psychology, the Reproducibility Key words: Open science; replication; crisis; performativity 318 Psicología, Conocimiento y Sociedad - 9(2), 318-330 (noviembre 2019-abril 2020) – Revisiones ISSN: 1688-7026 RESUMEN En este artículo describo el intento de Abierta, el Proyecto de un grupo de psicólogos de reformar la Reproducibilidad.
    [Show full text]
  • The Reproducibility Project: a Model of Large-Scale Collaboration for Empirical Research on Reproducibility
    Open Science Collaboration The Reproducibility Project: a model of large-scale collaboration for empirical research on reproducibility Book section Original citation: Originally published in Open Science Collaboration (2014) The Reproducibility Project: a model of large-scale collaboration for empirical research on reproducibility. In: Stodden, Victoria, Leisch, Friedrich and Peng, Roger D., (eds.) Implementing Reproducible Research. Chapman & Hall/CRC the R series. CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group, New York, USA, pp. 299-324. ISBN 978146656159 © 2014 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC This version available at: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/65169/ Available in LSE Research Online: February 2016 This material is strictly for personal use only. For any other use, the user must contact Taylor & Francis directly at this address: & Francis directly at this address: [email protected]. Printing, photocopying, sharing via any means is a violation of copyright. LSE has developed LSE Research Online so that users may access research output of the School. Copyright © and Moral Rights for the papers on this site are retained by the individual authors and/or other copyright owners. Users may download and/or print one copy of any article(s) in LSE Research Online to facilitate their private study or for non-commercial research. You may not engage in further distribution of the material or use it for any profit-making activities or any commercial gain. You may freely distribute the URL (http://eprints.lse.ac.uk) of the LSE Research Online website. This document is the author’s submitted version of the book section. There may be differences between this version and the published version.
    [Show full text]
  • Brian A. Nosek
    Last Updated: July 2, 2019 1 BRIAN A. NOSEK University of Virginia, Department of Psychology, Box 400400, Charlottesville, VA 22904-4400 Center for Open Science, 210 Ridge McIntire Rd, Suite 500, Charlottesville, VA 22903-5083 http://briannosek.com/ | http://cos.io/ | [email protected] Positions 2014- Professor University of Virginia 2013- Executive Director Center for Open Science 2008-2014 Associate Professor University of Virginia 2003-2013 Executive Director Project Implicit 2011-2012 Visiting Scholar CASBS, Stanford University 2008-2011 Director of Graduate Studies University of Virginia 2002-2008 Assistant Professor University of Virginia 2005 Visiting Scholar Stanford University 2001-2002 Exchange Scholar Harvard University Education Ph.D. 2002, Yale University, Psychology Thesis: Moderators of the relationship between implicit and explicit attitudes Advisor: Mahzarin R. Banaji M.Phil. 1999, Yale University, Psychology Thesis: Uses of response latency in social psychology M.S. 1998, Yale University, Psychology Thesis: Gender differences in implicit attitudes toward mathematics B.S. 1995, California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, Psychology Minors: Computer Science and Women's Studies Center for Open Science: co-Founder, Executive Director Web site: http://cos.io/ Primary infrastructure: http://osf.io/ A non-profit organization that aims to increase openness, integrity, and reproducibility of research. Building tools to facilitate scientists’ workflow, project management, transparency, and sharing. Community-building for open science practices. Supporting metascience research. Project Implicit: co-Founder Information Site: http://projectimplicit.net/ Research and Education Portal: https://implicit.harvard.edu/ Project Implicit is a multidisciplinary collaboration and non-profit for research and education in the social and behavioral sciences, especially for research in implicit social cognition.
    [Show full text]
  • Opinion: Is Science Really Facing a Reproducibility Crisis, and Do We
    COLLOQUIUM OPINION Issciencereallyfacingareproducibilitycrisis,anddo we need it to? COLLOQUIUM OPINION Daniele Fanellia,1 Edited by David B. Allison, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN, and accepted by Editorial Board Member Susan T. Fiske November 3, 2017 (received for review June 30, 2017) Efforts to improve the reproducibility and integrity of science are typically justified by a narrative of crisis, according to which most published results are unreliable due to growing problems with research and publication practices. This article provides an overview of recent evidence suggesting that this narrative is mistaken, and argues that a narrative of epochal changes and empowerment of scientists would be more accurate, inspiring, and compelling. reproducible research | crisis | integrity | bias | misconduct Is there a reproducibility crisis in science? Many seem suggests that generalizations are unjustified; and (iii)not to believe so. In a recent survey by the journal Nature, growing, as the crisis narrative would presuppose. Alter- for example, around 90% of respondents agreed that native narratives, therefore, might represent a better fit for there is a “slight” or “significant” crisis, and between empirical data as well as for the reproducibility agenda. 40% and 70% agreed that selective reporting, fraud, and pressures to publish “always” or “often” contrib- How Common Are Fabricated, False, Biased, ute to irreproducible research (1). Results of this non- and Irreproducible Findings? randomized survey may not accurately represent the Scientific misconduct and questionable research population of practicing scientists, but they echo practices (QRP) occur at frequencies that, while beliefs expressed by a rapidly growing scientific nonnegligible, are relatively small and therefore literature, which uncritically endorses a new “crisis unlikely to have a major impact on the literature.
    [Show full text]
  • Reproducibility and Replicability in Science (2019)
    THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS This PDF is available at http://nap.edu/25303 SHARE Reproducibility and Replicability in Science (2019) DETAILS 218 pages | 6 x 9 | PAPERBACK ISBN 978-0-309-48616-3 | DOI 10.17226/25303 CONTRIBUTORS GET THIS BOOK Committee on Reproducibility and Replicability in Science; Committee on National Statistics; Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences; Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education; Nuclear and Radiation Studies FIND RELATED TITLES Board; Division on Earth and Life Studies; Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics; Board on Mathematical Sciences and Analytics; Division on SUGGESTEDEngineering an CITATIONd Physical Sciences; Committee on Science, Engineering, Medicine, Nanadti oPnuabl lAicc Paodleicmyi;e Bso oafr Sd coienn Rcese, aErncghi nDeaetrain agn, da nIndf oMrmedaitcioinne; P20o1lic9y. Ranedp rGodloubcaibl ility aAnffda iRrse; pNliactaiobniliatyl Ainc aSdceiemnicees. oWf aSschieinngcteosn,, EDnCg:i nTeheer inNga,t iaonnda lM Aecdaidceinmeies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25303. Visit the National Academies Press at NAP.edu and login or register to get: – Access to free PDF downloads of thousands of scientific reports – 10% off the price of print titles – Email or social media notifications of new titles related to your interests – Special offers and discounts Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the National Academies Press. (Request Permission) Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this
    [Show full text]
  • What Meta-Analyses Reveal About the Replicability of Psychological Research
    What Meta-Analyses Reveal about the Replicability of Psychological Research T.D. Stanley1,4*, Evan C. Carter2 and Hristos Doucouliagos3 Deakin Laboratory for the Meta-Analysis of Research, Working Paper, November 2017. Abstract Can recent failures to replicate psychological research be explained by typical magnitudes of statistical power, bias or heterogeneity? A large survey of 12,065 estimated effect sizes from 200 meta-analyses and nearly 8,000 papers is used to assess these key dimensions of replicability. First, our survey finds that psychological research is, on average, afflicted with low statistical power. The median of median power across these 200 areas of research is about 36%, and only about 8% of studies have adequate power (using Cohen’s 80% convention). Second, the median proportion of the observed variation among reported effect sizes attributed to heterogeneity is 74% (I2). Heterogeneity of this magnitude makes it unlikely that the typical psychological study can be closely replicated when replication is defined as study-level null hypothesis significance testing. Third, the good news is that we find only a small amount of average residual reporting bias, allaying some of the often expressed concerns about the reach of publication bias and questionable research practices. Nonetheless, the low power and high heterogeneity that our survey finds fully explain recent difficulties to replicate highly-regarded psychological studies and reveal challenges for scientific progress in psychology. Key words: power, bias, heterogeneity, meta-analysis, replicability, psychological research 1Hendrix College, Conway, AR 72032. 2Department of Neuroscience, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455. 3Department of Economics and Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation, Deakin University, Burwood VIC 3125, Australia.
    [Show full text]
  • Contextual Sensitivity in Scientific Reproducibility
    Contextual sensitivity in scientific reproducibility Jay J. Van Bavela,1, Peter Mende-Siedleckia, William J. Bradya, and Diego A. Reineroa aDepartment of Psychology, New York University, New York, NY 10003 Edited by Susan T. Fiske, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, and approved April 25, 2016 (received for review December 3, 2015) In recent years, scientists have paid increasing attention to reproduc- concerns that these methodological issues in the field of psychology ibility. For example, the Reproducibility Project, a large-scale replication could weaken its credibility (19, 20). attempt of 100 studies published in top psychology journals found Scientists have speculated that a lack of reproducibility in psy- that only 39% could be unambiguously reproduced. There is a grow- chology, as well as in other fields, is the result of a wide range of ing consensus among scientists that the lack of reproducibility in psy- questionable research practices, including a file-drawer problem (21, – ’ chology and other fields stems from various methodological factors, 22), low statistical power (23 25), researcher s degrees of freedom including low statistical power, researcher’s degrees of freedom, and (26), presenting post hoc hypotheses as a priori hypotheses (27), and an emphasis on publishing surprising positive results. However, there prioritizing surprising results (28, 29). In an effort to enhance the is a contentious debate about the extent to which failures to reproduce reproducibility of research, several scientific journals (e.g., Nature and certain results might also reflect contextual differences (often termed Science) have offered explicit commentary and guidelines on these “hidden moderators”) between the original research and the replication practices (e.g., refs.
    [Show full text]