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Multi-Company Report April 20, 2018 | Equity Research IT Hardware, HDD/SSD, Mobility & Networking Weekly IT Hardware & Feedback on Apple & HDDs (WDC / STX) Communications Previews, NAND Pricing… Networking Investor Feedback on Apple & HDD (W. Digital & Seagate) Previews: Following our detailed preview reports on Apple (link), W. Digital (link), and Seagate (link), we thought we would highlight some investor feedback: (1) Apple – An Abrupt Shift in Sentiment (from “It Doesn’t Matter” to “How Weak?” – re: iPhone): We received little investor pushback on our consistently cautious view and now reduced iPhone ship estimates (50MM in F2Q18 and ~40MM in F3Q18) given our analysis of ongoing weak demand data points through C1Q18. This was supported by TSMC’s disappointing 2Q18 outlook / comments on high-end smartphone weakness (Apple accounting for +20% of TSMC’s revenue in 2017). We found investors increasingly focused on blended iPhone ASP ($/unit) downside vs. our $750 estimate (downside to ~$720-$730 range?). We think investor sentiment is expecting a $100B+ share repo authorization (2-3 year timeframe) and 30%+ dividend increase (upside into the 50%+ range; vs. +11% avg. over the past 4 years). (2) HDDs / Flash –Nearline HDD Upside; A Wait-and-See Approach to Flash / SSD Trends: Nearline HDD demand sustainability into 2Q18 / through 2018 will be a key focus following what is expected to be strong 1Q18 results (e.g., IDC’s prelim estimates implying 85%+ yr/yr capacity ship; +20% q/q). We continue to find few investors asking about Seagate’s HAMR vs. WD’s MAMR tech for next-gen (16TB+) high-cap HDDs, though we think this will become more important through 2018. We model WD’s Flash bits shipped at - 6% q/q; -9% blended ASP ($/GB). Focus on pricing trends into 2Q18 and tightening supply / demand set-up into 2H2018. Please see our WD and Seagate EPS scenario analysis on pages 18 and 21. NAND Flash: Key Questions / Considerations When Thinking About Industry Pricing Data. We think NAND Flash pricing concerns are overdone. As we continue to field a lot of investor questions on Flash pricing trends – spot vs. forward contract pricing trends (via InSpectrum & DRAMeXchange) - we think there are some important (overlooked) considerations: (1) How Much Flash Volume is Sold in Spot? While spot pricing has led contract pricing trends (focus being on 128Gb TLC NAND trends over the past few weeks – implied avg. at - 11% q/q in 1Q18, per InSpectrum; DRAMexChange doesn’t track any TLC pricing), our discussions suggest that there is very little Flash sold on the spot market. (2) What’s Exactly Tracked (~60% of Total NAND Flash Bits Shipped at 256Gb – Not Tracked)? While DRAMeXchange doesn’t track TLC NAND (IDC est. at ~60% of total Flash bits), we would also note that InSpectrum data doesn’t include any 256Gb MLC / TLC pricing, or ~80% of total TLC Flash bits shipped Aaron Rakers, CFA in 4Q17; ~60% of total Flash (IDC estimates). (3) What About Cost Senior Analyst|314-875-2508 ($/Gb) Execution? We think a key focus through 1Q18 earnings (and aaron.rakers@wellsfargo .com thereafter) should be on each companies’ comparative expectation / Joe Quatrochi, CFA ability to execute on bit production cost declines – e.g., WD has Associate Analyst |314-875-2055 consistently highlighted a ~20% per annum cost reduction with 3D [email protected] NAND technologies (i.e., utilization ramps, tech. transitions [64L to Jake Wilhelm, CPA 96L], string vs. single-stack, die size shrink, CuA, etc.). Associate Analyst |314-875-2502 [email protected] Please see page 27 for rating definitions, important disclosures and required analyst certifications. All estimates/forecasts are as of 04/20/18 unless otherwise stated. 04/20/18 17:25:36 ET Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report and investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. IT Hardware & Communications Networking Equity Research Continued… The Week Ahead – A Few Highlighted Thoughts: Earnings season will be in full swing this week (see our earnings calendar / points of derivative focus on page 3): 1. NAND Flash Commentary (SK Hynix, Samsung, & Western Digital): In addition to the aforementioned thoughts on NAND Flash pricing trends / considerations, we will be focused on commentary related to NAND Flash supply / demand and pricing trends and 3D NAND progression (64-layer yield ramps / cost reduction expectations, 96-layer and QLC timing?). 2. Nidec Results (4/25; before market): We will be focused on Nidec’s results / outlook commentary as providing validation to what is now an anticipated strong HDD earnings season driven by high-cap / nearline HDDs. As a reminder, Nidec is the leading HDD spindle motor provider and has continued to maintain a ~100% share position for helium-filled high-cap HDDs. 3. iPhone Demand Data Points (Verizon & AT&T Upgrade Rates): Smartphone upgrade rates in focus (e.g., iPhone 8 / X cycle); Wells Fargo Analyst, Jennifer Fritzsche, estimates flat yr/yr upgrade rate trends for Verizon and AT&T at 5% and 4%, respectively. 4. Cloud Capex: A number of cloud capex data points will be released this week – Google, Facebook, Microsoft, & Amazon. Forward spending commentary will be a focal point following strong high- capacity HDD capacity shipped in the March quarter (IDC estimates +87% yr/yr). In addition to the high-cap HDD read-throughs, we would note that our industry discussions have suggested that 50%+ of total enterprise SSDs are consumed by the hyper-scale cloud vendors. We expect a derivative focus on cloud capex related to Arista (30%-50% of total revenue derived via the cloud vertical; Microsoft historically representing the only 10%+ customer at 16% over the past two calendar years). Wells Fargo Tracking of Job Listings: Our weekly tracking of job listings would highlight (1) the lowest level of Commvault job openings since 2011 – we believe notable following Elliott Management’s announced involvement. (2) Nutanix’s total job listings stood at 571 exiting last week (~50% sales- related), representing the highest level we have seen and up 50% since the end of 2017. We continue to view Nutanix’s open job listings as reflective of ongoing strong fundamentals. (3) The number of Pure Storage sales listings declined for a fifth consecutive week after reaching an all-time high in mid-March. 2 | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC 3 IT Hardware, HDD/SSD, Mobility & Networking Weekly Networking & Mobility HDD/SSD, Hardware, IT March Quarter Results Calendar – 4/23-4/27 (Week #2): | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Securities, Fargo Wells | Time Domestic Int'l Company Ticker Date (ET) Call in # Call in # Passcode Key Topics / Thoughts: Focus on cloud-demand related commentary. We will also be interested in thoughts on capex/datacenter build-out Alphabet (Google) GOOGL 4/23/18 4:30 PM n/a n/a n/a trends and thus a read-thru for HDDs / networking equipment. Updated thoughts on NAND Flash demand, pricing, and 3D NAND commentary. SK Hynix previously guided SK Hynix 000660-KR 4/23/18 8:00 PM n/a 82-31-810-3061 5796 NAND bit ship down low-single digits seq. in 1Q18; bit ship +40% yr/yr range in 2018. Focus on enterprise software demand; geographical/vertical-specific and cloud-related comments of interest. We SAP SAP - DE 4/24/18 8:00 AM 929-477-0353 44-0-330-336-9105 8849562 continue to be interested in SAP's views on convergence between software and hardware strategies. Corning GLW 4/24/18 8:30 AM 800-230-1074 612-288-0329 n/a Gorilla Glass used on iPhone screens Apple: iPhone / smartphone upgrade cycle dynamics - Wells Fargo Telecom Services Analyst, Jennifer Fritzsche, Verizon Communications VZ 4/24/18 8:30 AM 888-455-3018 773-799-3816 VERIZON estimates Verizon's upgrade rate at 5% in 1Q18, flat vs. a year ago. Networking: Capex spending trends & 5G commentary Texas Instruments TXN 4/24/18 4:30 PM 323-794-2093 323-794-2093 5467397 Interested in derivative thoughts on server market. LG Display 034220-KRX 4/24/18 9:00 PM n/a 60-3-2718-4788 658594; 72048 Apple-related commentary Canon 7751-JP 4/25/18 2:00 AM n/a n/a n/a Derivative read-thru for HP's printer division; Canon remains primary/sole provider of printer engines into HP Inc. Capex spending trends; continuing to focus on cloud / internet-related capex spending, though noting that Twitter is Twitter TWTR 4/25/18 8:00 AM n/a n/a n/a relatively small when compared to others (Amazon, Google, Microsoft, etc.) TE Connectivity TEL 4/25/18 8:30 AM 800-230-1092 612-288-0329 n/a 100GbE Ethernet demand commentary Largest provider of HDD spindle motors. We will be interested in the company's enterprise spindle motor shipments as Nidec Corp 6594-JP 4/25/18 9:00 AM 800-239-9838 44-0-800-358-6377 NIDEC well as forward looking commentary. We believe mix of helium-related shipments will be an interesting data point. Amphenol Corporation AMPH 4/25/18 1:30 PM 888-455-0949 517-623-4547 LAMPO Component supplier for iPhone antennas; commentary on 100GbE Ethernet adoption F5 Networks FFIV 4/25/18 4:30 PM 800-593-9913 212-287-1824 F5 Networks IT Spending / networking demand trends Apple: iPhone / smartphone upgrade cycle dynamics - Wells Fargo Telecom Services Analyst, Jennifer Fritzsche, AT&T T 4/25/18 4:30 PM 866-232-4457 612-332-1213 n/a estimates AT&T's upgrade rate at 4% in 1Q18, flat vs.
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