Climate change in the geological record 26-27 May

What the geological record tells us about our present and future climate By reconstructing past climate changes, we can better understand the dynamics of the climate system and hence therange of impacts possible under current warming. This symposium will address key questions about past climate changeand what those past changes tell us about the future.

#GSLClimate

(c) Ingrid Demaerschalk May27 2021 26 May 2021 Programme Conference climate and future past our us about tells record geological the What record geological in the change Climate [Type here] 18:1 17:40 17:15 16:45 16:20 15:50 15:40 15:10 15:00 14:30 14:15 Time 18:15 17:25 17:15 16:45 16:20 15:50 15:40 15:10 15:00 14:30 14 14:15 Time : 20 0

Rachael James talks Poster Thirumalai Kaustaubh Tierney Jess Cramwinckel Margot Alan Haywood Rachel Brown Daniela Schmidt Conveners Speaker Maureen Raymo VervoortPam Bliesner Bette Otto Kaufman Darrell Orrison Rebecca Heydt Anna von der Aidan Starr Paul Valdes C M Speaker onvenors

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an old married couple? ECR Flash talk: what were the Invited: address Welcome Title climate and future present our Plenary framework interpretative ECR Flash Talk: models? climate Invited: Is our current warmingInvited: millennium response System externalto variability last the over ECR Flash talk: of climate sensitivity? quantification HowInvited: the does geological during Pleistocene circulation glacials ECR Flash talk: hasInvited: climate Why inchanged the past? W P Title climate emergency for a sustainable future a sustainable emergency for climate W Invited: authors poster the talks from minute flash One v. global change?regional Invited: like? look Invited: inwater isotopes the early Eocenehothouse ECR Flash talk: Invited:

resident elcome address

What does the geological record indicate about record geological the does What does of record the What geological climate change Earth's temperature changedWhen in the past, Are past there climate analogues thefor future? How the can be record geological used to evaluate Lecture: What the geological record tells us about us tells record the geological Lecture: What

’ s addresss hat is the role of ingeology dealing the with

Poster breakouts Poster impacts?

Mechanisms of South American MonsoonSouth of Mechanisms Antarctic icebergs reorganize ocean Strongly reduced Late Miocene CO Negative carbonan isotope excursions: Break Break

End

unusual? record informrecord our 2 meridional in gradients

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5/26/2021 presentations Poster [Type here] Aja Watkins Aja Meerder Douwe van George Matthew L Staitis Marci Robinson Tammo James Rae Pryor Ellie PetrickBenjamin Francis Owen Peter Matchette John Christopher Alan MariaMancini Valeria Luciani KOlaf Lenz Amy Jewell Inglis Gordon Higgs Roger R Gray William Gernon Thomas Ashley Francis Howard Dewhirst Catt Lewis Richard Brian Presenter

Reichgelt

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Downes

Title Using Scaling Using Temporal Establishto Paleoclimate Analogues Phanerozoic andA tectonic glacio K/Pgthe extinction mass Deccan Investigating signals in AtlanticPaleoclimate Coastal Plain sediments Australianproductivity in the early Eocene proxyPlant evidence viridis highterra australis: for and rainfall Archives Atmospheric East AfricanSouth Margin provenanceUnderstanding changes in sediments supplying the Australia New multi ChangeCycles Climate of theConsider Hippopotamus, and The Eemian ecosystem?Mediterranean apossibleMessinian: analogue thefor on impact future the changescyclical andenvironmental during climatic nannofossils andbenthicCalcareous highlight the foraminifers foraminifera on planktic Optimum Climatic of impact Biotic past warm events: effects of Early Eocene Ger Paleogene greenhouse on acoastal wetland in Northern ofImpacts long Quaternary African Reconstructing North regional aridity through the late Climate activity, notmagnetic CO warmingGlobal andcooling lastfor 2,000 years Sun's mimic with deglacialsynchronous in rise the CO inPoleward shift maximumthermal Eocene lithosphericMobilization mantle carbon during of the Palaeocene observations using levelglacier, sea surface andHadCRUT4 temperature of Comparison Warming of contribution The fossil emissionsfuel and Pausethe to Global Observations The Physics ofThe Climate Systems

many

- biogeochemistry

- million year year million

CO

- warming andonset timing warming post rates

2 and short the Southern Hemisphere westerly winds

over the Past 66Million Marine Years from - - eustatic level sea reconstruction thefor induced environmental changes, changes, inducedenvironmental records of climaterecords change from the shelf of 2 feedbacks during rapidfeedbacks events warming

: scientific literature literature scientific synthesis :

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term climate during variations the

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Cause, Effect and Cause, 2

the the prior to prior to

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todelivered the ocean. willThis information MD20 beapplied to - source rock in geology the and region of their relative contributions terrigenous sediment sediment river from signals and(Neodymium Strontium isotopes and clay of South mineralogy) African catchment river we initialHere, present ofresults present the in regions and environment.the marine terrestrial importance understanding key transportfor history sediment andcharacterising sour sediment reconstructing relateddelivery to rivers by hydrology. different terrestrial This is of t Understanding tosediments the ocean. exposed, and across rivers plain withinthis asubduedflowed incised valley their delivering theDuring last lowglacial widethe stand, continental shelf South of Africa was- sub Current) and (Agulhas hydrological terrestrial (riv a MSAkey site. core This marine archaeological thehas potential to record both marine 450 spans waska retrieved the Agulhas Passage,from 150~ offshore Blomboskm of Cave, Marine core MD20 sediment - Current System.Agulhas S) as34°18.8 well long as marine sediment cores retrieved the adjacentfrom offshore alongday collected sediments river the coast South East of South Africa (29°48.583 S - MSAthese a environmental multiproxy settings, study is being completedern utilising mod and climatological conditions environmental specific in this region. orderIn to reconstruct 100 (MSA), innovations of anatomicallytechnological humans modern during the Middle Age Stone SouthThe African region provides abundant evidence cultural archaeological and of Ellie African Margin East South supplying sediments the in changes provenance Understanding like? look change climate of record geological the does What 1. Flash talk and poster abstracts by theme climate and future past our us about tells record geological the What record geological in the change Climate [Type here] * Norway). Bergen, Research, Climate for Centre rknes Bje Centre, Research Norwegian (NORCE Simon Margit and Amsterdam), University VU & Geology, Geochemistry Cluster Sciences, Earth of (Department Lubbe der van Jeroen USA), University, Columbia Kingdom United Hemming (Department of Ear of (Department Hemming Lamont Sciences, Environmental and Earth of (Department Babin Daniel Kingdom), United 3AT, CF10 Cardiff, University, ( Andersen Morten Kingdom), United 3AT, CF10 [email protected]

Pryor * (

School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff, CF10 3AT, 3AT, CF10 Cardiff, University, Cardiff Sciences, Environmental and Earth of School - 50k ), ), a BP. hasIt beenwidely industries that speculated these bywere facilitated he provenance of these deposited could sediments play role animportant in Ian Hall (School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff, Cardiff, University, Cardiff Sciences, Environmental and Earth of (School Hall Ian

th and Environmental Sciences, Lamont Sciences, Environmental and th samples with the aim to abroad gain coverage ofspatial the 3591 (36°43.707 S; 22°9.151 - Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, USA), Sidney Sidney USA), University, Columbia Observatory, Earth Doherty School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Cardiff Cardiff Sciences, Environmental and Earth of School - day isotopic radiogenic fingerprints er discharge)er variability.

E, 2464m water depth) which

- Doherty Earth Observatory, Observatory, Earth Doherty 3591 which likely received a

aerially aerially ce ce

-

4

5/26/2021 duringrecord archaeological the MSA southern Africa. of recordsThese w a localrepresent more signature. by strong the Agulhas flowing Current to the core whereas site, the coarser maymaterial sediments lithogenic Finer originating from distalmore catchments river might be transported and howvariabilities help can this relationship to define local vs dis interest is theparticular sensitivity of the isotopic toradiogenic signatures sizegrain amount ofsignificant terrigenous material from the via African continents riverine Of input. [Type here]

ill allow us tous explore allowill variability hydroclimate regional in relation in to the

tal sedimenttal sources. 5

5/26/2021 coast and latitudecoast may have heterogeneity. vegetation led to shown be to modern monthly precipitation. NPP precipitation. monthly estimates were 1100– withmonsoonal, driest the receivingmonth between 2– or Gulf the Sea Tasman > with 1000 Precipitationmm. may have been seasonal, close to annualBasin mean of precipitation ~600 and mm <100 sites km from the Australo- where NPP modern is - productivityhigher in particular than modern, EyreLake for Basin and Australia sites, South 13.5 of – 18.9 fr capacity sequestration at this time. The early to middle Eocene temperature reconstructions net primaryto productivity in order (NPP) vegetationto reconstruct the type andits carbon hologyleaf andapply morp anovelHemisphere cross approach to proxy.we Additionally,paleoclimate compare tomegafossil - modern estimates basedpaleoclimate on leafthree morphological proxies andone taxonomical plant Eocene of Australi Here,thancontinent today. we twelve revisit sites megafossil from plant the early to middle would have water supply likely increased onland and contribute to a Australian“greener” active cyclgenerally more hydrological atposition 10– theDuring early to Eocene,middle Australia 40– occupied latitudes Tammo theAustralian early Eocene Plant proxy evidence for terra viridis australis: rainfall and high productivity in like? look change climate of record geological the does What 1. [Type here] * Au South of Herbarium State and Gardens (Botanic Scriven J. Leonie Adelaide), of (University Conran [email protected] om Australian are uniformlymegafloras with subtropical annual mean oftemperatures stralia) 20.3 °C, summermean of temperatures 22.5– –

Reichgelt 16.9 °C. was Precipitation with homogeneous, less inland sites of the Eyre Lake

40° S today. Enhancedlatitudinal of in moisture, transport a to addition * ( * University of Connecticut of University a to ensemblegenerate temperature, and precipitation seasonality - day Australian subtropical eastern although some distance forest, from 200

– 200 gC m 200 gC

- e in the globally early warmer to middle Eoceneworld 2 yr ), ), David R. Greenwood (Brandon University), John G. G. John University), (Brandon Greenwood R. David - n type wasn type vegetatio modern similar most 1. The 1500 gC m 1500 gC 26.5 °C26.5 and mean winter temperatures 7× precipitation less as n mea

- 2 yr

- 1, which suggests much - correlate leaf morphology morphology leaf correlate 70° S, opposed as to its day Southern Antarctic 6

5/26/2021 and Maryland, USA, for sampledWe outcrops andmarine cores sediment the Atlantic Coastalfrom Plain Virginia of water ecosystems. extreme climate states capturethat the magnitude andspeed of dynamic changes in shallow coastal plain depositsmarine are usuallyt discontinuous, resolutionin than higher in deepsea cores due to high nearshore sedimentation rates. While capture can however, climate change data during warm intervals when levelswere sea high extremes climate and illuminate their transitions. and plainCoastal outcrops cores, sediment cores wheresediment orbital resolution and micropaleontologic cangeochemical studies Changes in climate over millennial time are intervals and longer best observed in deepsea Marci Paleoclimatesignals Atl in like? look change climate of record geological the does What 1. [Type here] * - of Wisconsin (University Sutton Seth (USGS), Trail shallow shelf. responses global to climate change because the is initial response data. paleoecological dataThese are especially to better understand useful and regional sedimentary marine records Atlantic Coastalfrom the Plain valuable contain quantitative mid US the anddata documented extremely primary productivity high with MCO the associated along atpulses the PETM onset, 2) the generated first MCO andMMCT sea surface temperature level.sea have 1) documented surface oceanWe warming andacidification in two discrete of seaestimates surface relative degreetemperature, of ocean productivity acidification, and Results PETM,from the MCO/MMCT, andMPWP include age improved asmodels well as correlation. - age of age generate models for sections these by calibrated combining and appearancesfirst last oxygbiostratigraphy, attain to from coastal plain using sediments methods on based microfossil (i.e., content Hollandthe Ball and Park Although Dory cores. high ageresolution models are difficult often and- mid the core, (BG&E) Miocene in the Calvert Formation Calvert Cliffs outcrops and the Gas Baltimore & Electric Dover (SDB) Bridge and Mattawoman Creek of geochemistry the Paleocene Aq PeriodWarm Specifically, (MPWP). we analyzed and sedimentology, micropaleontology the Optimum Climate (MCO), Miocenemiddle (MMCT) and Climate - Transition mid magnitudes ofmagnitudes temperature and- sea of understanding the mid associated withchanges the PETM, MCO/MMCT, and MPWP, leading to a better [email protected]

* ( * Robinson diagnostic speciesdiagnostic with alkenone biomarkers, as used a tool stratigraphic for

- Atlantic Coastal Plain, and 3) characterized benthic foraminifer

US Geological Survey Geological US

en isotopes) due en isotopes) to the paucity desired species, we of were able to

the Paleocene- - Atlantic Atlantic shallow response different ecological andto rates marine Piacenz

antic Coastal Plain sediments uia Formation Marlboroand Eocene Clay South in the ian Yorktown Formation inian Yorktown Formation Rushmere andthe outcrops ), ), level results Our rise. show that, though dis Harry Dowsett (USGS), Kevin Foley (USGS), Jean Self Jean (USGS), Foley Kevin (USGS), Dowsett Harry Eocene MaximumThermal (PETM), Miocene - Billingsley Road (MCBR) cores, the middle middle the cores, (MCBR) Road Billingsley

Madison) and Whittney Spivey (USGS) Spivey and Whittney Madison) hey excellent contain of snapshots

often on recorded thefirst

community Piacenzian continuous, continuous,

- 7

5/26/2021 * Saparoea van Berg den van using anindependentreconstruction, dataset, recently alow - and glacio tectonic Phanerozoic long Howev level sea climatology. have curves Traditionally been on based stratigraphic analyses. meanGlobal level sea are variations of interest to the sciences, earth and biology, George Douwe Atectonic and glacio like? look change climate of record geological the does What 1. [Type here] basins and therefore are critical factors for the geological record the geological for factors are critical and therefore basins showthereby how plate and both tectonics climate contribute change sedimentation into derived level sea andcontinental estimates flooding paleogeographic mapping. from We driventectonically eustasy our andcompare levelresulting sea curve with stratigraphically derived tectonic plate superimpose eustasy. the - glacio We a variation as ofresult reaches up toglaciations 1 withcalibrated a paleoclimaterecent model the Cenozoicfor late ice- paleotemperature andof with combine this paleogeographic reconstructions. Ice is thickness anddatapaleo- δ18O a use compilationrecent for average paleo - global invariations water volume (storage in land ice) were not previously Here, we incorporated. strontiumfrom the isotope record. However, in sea changes level climatologic from by estimatingreconstructed the of effect plate tectonics (i.e. - mid [email protected] er, the validity the remained controversial has er, and the amplitude and scales oftime global

van der Meer der van - term seaterm and level is poorly does constrained variability not separate eustatic driving provideforces. To of anovel sea method level Köppen zones. First, we volume estimate o the

- eustatic sea level reconstruction for the Phanerozoic * ( ), ), CNOOC

Scotese, Appy Sluijs, Aart Sluijs, Appy Scotese, Mills, Chris W. J. Benjamin 00m, similar similar 00m, to andat dominant overtimes temperature, whichtemperature, wasderived from eustatic effect effect eustatic on to the plate - - sea frequency

ocean ridge spreading) f landf ice as a function house. Sea level level curve was - Peter Peter

8

5/26/2021 carbon required to explain the PETM.the explain to required carbon CO2anomalous during while continental breakup, fluxes the also reconciling deficit of deep of carbon,gigatons which is sufficient to drive PETM warming. model Our withis consistent driven melting by of the sub substantial models andmodels coupled tectonic SCLMthe disrupted and caused ofmassive mobilization this deepcarbon. meltingOur propose thethat coincidence of the Iceland plume andemerging asthenospheric upwelling SCLMthe in is enriched carbonates andis ametasomatic car major anda sudden weRather, volcanic show sequences that spanning the rift with theassociated NAIP yields only one - c we emissionsdioxide (CO2) the coevalfrom North Atlantic igneous province (NAIP). However, releasemethane been has proposed as a studies have recent trigger, implicated carbon E in culminated the transient year,(170 thousand event, hyperthermal thekyr) Palaeocene - andopeningmagmatism, continental breakup, of North Atlantic the Ocean. warmingGlobal earlyThe Cenozoic environmental profound exhibited change influenced by plume * Southampton) of (University Palmer Martin Sciences), of Academy (Chinese Mitchell Ross Lyon), of (Universite Merdith Andrew Oldenburg), of (University Longman Jack Southampton), of (University Hincks Thea Edinburgh), of (University Thomas M past? the in changed climate has Why 2. [Type here] thermal maximumthermal [email protected] ocene thermal thermal ocene maximum 56(PETM) ago million Although (Ma). years sedimentary obilization of lithospheric mantle carbonPalaeocene mantle the during of lithospheric obilization alculate that volcanic outgassing volcanic that alculate from - mid

* ( * Gernon

∼ 220- ), ), Southampton of University kyr

- long of intensification volcanism coincident with the PETM, and –

geochemical simulations indicate simulations indicate geochemical the r

-

continental lithospheric mantle (SCLM). Critically, (SCLM). mantle lithospheric continental fifth of thefifth carbon required to PETM.trigger the Ryan Barr (University of Southampton), Godfrey Fitton Fitton Godfrey Southampton), of (University Barr Ryan ocean ridges andlarge igneous provinces - to - drift phase of the N phase the drift of bon reservoir. We We reservoir. bon elease of >10^4 - Eocene AIP exhibit 9

5/26/2021 increase asto the westerlies poleward due shift to warming. anthropogenic CO2 anddeglacial rise, naturalsuggest CO2 outgassing the Southern isfrom Ocean likely Southern Ocean. Our establishresults acentral role the westerlyfor winds in driving the of rate overturning the abyssal leading to ocean, a s demonstratecarbon model shifting thethat westerlies substantially equatorward the reduces inthe mirrors atmosphericrise Experiments CO2. with a0.25° - resolution ocean reconstruction Our that shows polewardthe in shift the westerlies ov - mid the to relative ago) 20,000 years (about Maximum and shift equatorward about a 25% weakening of westerlies duringthe the Last Glacial changes in reconstruct the westerlies over deglaciation. the last CI) find We (95% a 5±2° theacross Southern Ocean andconstraints from an ensemble of climate models to poorly Here, weremain constrained. use a compilation of planktic d18O foraminiferal from CO2 overatmospheric glacial storage.carbon the westerlies are hypothesised to playWhile a in role key regulating Hemisphere Southern The westerly deep winds ocean influence strongly circulation and * (LSCE/IPSL) Michel Elisabeth (LSCE/IPSL), Kageyama Masa South Wales), New of (University Holzer Mark Sydney), of (University Spence Paul South Wales), (U Robert Wills (LOCEAN), deLavergne R William the deglacial rise in CO2 with synchronous winds westerly Hemisphere Southern the in shift Poleward te changed in theclima past? has Why 2. [Type here] [email protected]

Gray

* ( Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE/IPSL) l’Environnement de et duClimat Sciences des Laboratoire

- interglacial cycles, cycles, changesinterglacial in past their position and niversity of Washington), Laurie Menviel (University of New New of (University Menviel Laurie of Washington), niversity

uppression of CO2 outgassing from the Holocene 6,000(about years ago).

er deglaciationer closely

- sea ), ), Casimir Casimir strength ice - 10

5/26/2021 20th Century 20th alone, strongestreaching the solar 'grand (1937 maximum' (Maunder~1700AD Minimum), the largest in rise 9,000 years, (sic) 130%growing in the years 1,000 from ~400AD into Little Agethe Ice (LIA; - ~1400 further characteristics, besides characteristics, further overall 'hockey and(~1.3C) highest peak in 2,000 years. The temperature andS (Berkeley ~1830nadir LIA final the from <0.5%(Contrast parallel in increase irradiancetotal solar surged [TSI].) Temperature too, minima 1450,minima 1700);(~1330, (2) Sun's 310ADthe peak (second - ~100 and 1975correspond 1840to 1810, and1890 (sunspot 30 sea metre ~450ADprominent warm peak (with abundant geological after detectors, applyingneutron magnetometers), a - ~100 closelythermometers) solar matches lastFor 2,000the years average surface Earth's temperature (by proxies and post and, dwindling pollution, fossil manyfuels believe, warming byglobal CO2. urge Most nuclearshifting and/or scientists to renewable by amply energy, justified air * Roger not CO2: scientific literature synthesis Global warming and cooling for last 2,000 years mimic Sun's magnetic activity, past? the in changed climate has Why 2. [Type here] amplitude about amplitude twice 1,000 the with superimposed'sawteeth', 3- In contrastIn CO2 six has with mismatches 2,000the - [Keeling Curve] and [Keeling decline 1940 slight above) before(~1830, CO2's rise; CO2's (3) rise was (except continuous sawteeth seasonal its before trendless modern ~1850rise byfrom emissions; industrial warming (2) began sawteeth, above; 30 sawteeth, CO2 gradient increased fourfold; (6) the Berkeley the (6) increased fourfold; gradient CO2 1975- steadilyfrom accelerated 1944, but warming has not its(after 1975 (5) resumption); the consistent withconsistent SMO Svensmark's temperature, The evidence global the collectivelyforegoing that Sun governs indicates unlike CO2.frequencies, Evidently, and are CO2 uncorrelated. temperature and disregarding ocean lag.and disregarding ocean Further Sun- assuming negligibleinclude: because influence solar changesTSI are trivial SMO); (ignores by enhancedfaster photos omitted inbut their climate models is rising aerosol'BVOC' emissions from growing forests very"potentially but poorly important" constrained natural acknowledgedfeedback by IPCC A effect. greenhouseCO2's conclusion logical The is cancel tive nega that feedbacks 10- heat(high capacity, slow mixing). This 'ocean ~100- downturns"). The solar exceptional during commonest SMO augment minima, solar [email protected] 100 years, explains why persists today, solar warming weakening despite 1991. since

2016 warming episode had samethe ast thegradien previous one (1910- year lag: LIA's (1) coldestthree peaks (~1470, 1610, 1830) mimic SMO three extreme Higgs -

level in <100 rise (3) years); successive sawteeth HadCRUT cusps at 1910, 1945 * ( ) Ltd Geoclastica - year coolings 1880

ynthesis('CO2 fertilization'). Other IPCCclimate

year temperature lag is at - to year decline. year decline. Three cr simple - - cosmic ray 20 - magnetic outputmagnetic (SMO) - (ice - year sawteeth ENSO);(longer than and (B) surge -

- 44), unlike44), v - HadCRUT data) data) HadCRUT 2016, to largestthe warming 1910, 1945- driven warming isdriven ending warming predictable, years~100

- - - lag', variably by estimated as previous authors cloudiness theory. Volcanic - mega stick' shape: (A) multi shape: stick' - HadCRUT datasetHadCRUT includes solar year tempera ery punctuated warming- ery (supra punctuated 75; 1998 pause tributable totributable oceanic thermal inertia - ological evidencearchae a ~3 for - year temperature lag. Bot year - driven cooling "volcanic (LIA 1900). Then SMO surged from surged1900). from ThenSMO oss - - smoothed chart). MO graphs share two highest) alignshighest) with a ture profile:ture CO2 (1) was - matches confirm the core proxies, sunspots, - - decadal up- 2013); CO2 (4) has - 2004; peak 1991).

- model errors

45), while45), the eruptions, down - 1750 h fell for for h fell annual -

- 11

5/26/2021 after (lag) [Type here] 332245803. in (dozens) sources ResearchGate papers 348689944, 348369922, 346792725 and

the 1991the solar peak. Reviewers: Drs Gary Couples and Moslow.Tom Literature

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5/26/2021 SAMSthe may respond to changes in internalfuture variability andexternal forcings in theprocesses system. enhances our ofThis understanding how components of different env Reconstructing howOscillation. these modes varytime establishes through abaseline andlocal precipitation,region and 3) SAMS by El variability the modulated Niño- over t to 1)correspond an upper withcomparison features spatiotemporal of the SAMS. The three first mode of variability physical SAMS. the The with of underpinnings these statistical modes are explored through we ableMillennium, are to the characterize modes of isotopic regional variability associated (MCEOF) decompositionFunction of a of network 14stable isotope records the Last from budget.energy T regional the and suchmodulate drive hydroclimate as atmospheric circulation variability in andchanges precipitation, providing into insight strictly variousfor which environmental characteristics proxies America in South are spatially more resentative of hydroclimate rep than proxies signals the influencethat hydroclimate regional of localfrom those isotope Stable variability. records influencedisotope by South American the Monsoon (SAMS), disentangling System we work, In this evaluate the modes of variability a drawn from envelopethe of current variability established as theduring LM. howUnderstanding they will to respond bothsensitive to externalglobal andlocal modulationforcings of internal variability. characterizedsystems, by changes in interannual and are circulation regional hydroclimate, in detailing nevertheless of impacts modern onglobal warming systems. regional Monsoon change.imhomogenous some Moreover, changes regional becan subtle, important but as such timescale relatively short LMthe is important in to detailsfill the of globally high the range characterizing variabilityof is aided when paleoclimatic canrecords be sampled at external to asforcings well the of as influence internal variability. a On regional scale, assuch stable oxygen canfrom isotopes, provide both into howinsight the of context current warmthe period. Sufficiently evidence detailed record, in the geologic on Constraints climate variability Last (LM) Millennium in help the define theto climatic * Rebecca variability over the last millennium Mechanisms of SouthAmerican Monsoon System resp past? the in changed climate has Why 2. [Type here] [email protected] elope of variability whichelope change against of be can comparedfuture and key highlights - density. Estimating regional climate processes climate regional Estimating density. he Amazon basin during the mature phase of the 2)monsoon, the monsoon trough Orrison

* ( University at Albany; SUNY Albany; at University

- tropospheric Rossby wave to condensational heating response hough hough applicationthe of aMonte Empirical Carlo Orthogonal

climate change will a require detailed of estimation

), ), Mathias Vuille [University at Albany; SUNY] Albany; at [University Vuille Mathias and particularlyfeedbacks, ona

network ofnetwork oxygenstable onseto external

climate responds climate Southern Southern

.

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5/26/2021 2021.Statement”, betweencorrelation ice extent and carbon dioxide in 1of figure the “G.S.L. Scientific atmosphericcomparison, carbon dioxide as negligible has is clear influence, from cycles changes have in climate dominated atfor last least 50the million years. By to conclusion The be drawn the is from record geological that samethe solar andorbital uncertaintywithin the quoted the of measurements. same proportionthe to the square of root its wavelength. ofThe match the is wellmodel the peculiarity of is that amplitudemodel ofthe the temperature scalar cycleeach for is in whichfor been has it recorded. Although this may bedismiss seventhe solar cycles named above, and adding a ENSOfactor for events over the period is It dependable. possible to model those measurements closely effects bythe of combining lastFor 170the years, the HADCRUT compilation of temperat global in carbonchanges dioxide (Gest et al. 2017). clear from them. temperatureThe changes recorded precede, there more often not,than the cyc solar of the most resolve to insufficient Pleistocene, iceFor the sampling core of 1m to approximately(corresponding is 500years) components arethat close to the Bond cycle (1400 years). De (210 Vries/Suess year period cycleslonger solar in plant around populations the margin of lake. the wereThey the Acycles. later palynological study of the sediments et (Lenz. 2017) al. found evidence of Schwabe,the (11years), years),Hale (22 Messel al,2011) demonstrated cyclical et with with (Lenz, corresponding variations, periods Analyses the of nature of the varves, and biological content, their from the in sediments Lake is limited. dating of cision pre achieved of adetailed Eocene from investigation lake sediments, but backfurther in time the Intiming. the record, anunusual stratigraphic level chronological of accuracy been has depth samplingof (1m andNorth South Polar areregions, subject dating both due uncertainty, to coarsenessto the andtemperatures, dates have accurately. cores, beenmeasured Ice bothrecovered from both past, veryrecent the onvariousbased In of proxies temperatures. measurements for The demonstrates record geological has there that never been a stable climate onEarth, * Francis Peter Cycles of Climate Change past? the in changed climate has Why 2. [Type here] [email protected]

Owen * (

) Retired . corresponds to. several hundred years) and to in variations absolute s) and Eddythe (950 years) cycles; their “Cycle contains 5”

Yoshimura (66 years) and Gleissberg (84 years) (84 and Gleissberg years)Yoshimura (66 les, but the of effect Earth’s cyclesthe is orbital

ed as acoincidence, a ures is the most

the lackthe of 14

5/26/2021 * the Miocene.since mid provide anew into the role understanding ofnges cha around Australia in global cooling Miocene documented in the loss of coral reefs. ourTherefore, work enabled has to us least 12at Ma andhelp the investigate of impact during changes oceanic the mid late to Sea. Coral recordsThese should help extend our understandi weFinally, expand project hopeto this by SSTs reconstructing and nutrients from the nearby these changes might have beendriven much as by in sea changes level tectonics. as havethe ITF animpact on a scale. global also It like shows that f impacted3.3 the entire eastern Indian Ocean. inThis confirms detail inchanges greater that and local current systems over the last 5Ma. showThese in shifts that the ITF around 3.6 with1460 cores other fits taken expeditionfrom 356,IODP which preserve in theshifts ITF an ofsuggesting intensification the local Leeuwin 900ka. around Furthermore, IODP Site shown that ofinfluence the ITF on the circulation over thermohaline the MPT. Newer haswork also theinfluenced evolution ocean of isglobal circulation. This the evidencefirst of the possible theacross Atlantic andPacific basins, suggesting the ofthat restriction the could haveITF levelsea SST glacials. during These drops coincide with in benthic changes d13C gradients of restriction duringthe ITF these intervals. were restrictions These caused by in changes showrecords adecrease in around temperatures 1.5glacial Ma, and0.6 Ma, a suggesting records aridity (Ti/Ca) westfrom coastthe of spanning Australia, pastthe Ma.2.5 Our is(MPT), not well IODP Site understood. 1460provides and surface sea temperature (SST) However, the circulation. behaviour of the ITF the across Mid- Oceans andis thought to play role animportant in modulating the meridional overturning ITFThe is a gatewaythe controlling heat of flow betweenand salt Pacific the and Indian Martinez Alfredo Chemistry), of Institute Planck (Max Auderset Alexandra (MARUM), Vleeschouwer De David , Graz) of Benjamin multi New past? the in changed climate has Why 2. [Type here] b.pet [email protected] Petrick

there arethere significant changes in productivity at the site at the same time - million year records of climate change from the shelf ofAustralia * ( CAU Kiel Institute of Geology of Institute Kiel CAU

- Garcia (Max Planck Institute of Chemistry). of Institute Planck (Max Garcia

), ), Lars Reuning (CAU Kiel), Gerald Auer (University (University Auer Gerald Kiel), (CAU Reuning Lars Pl ng of this critical area back to area criticalof this ng eistocene Climatic Transition Transition Climatic eistocene or the more recent the recent more or

-

15

5/26/2021 * Party Science 361 Expedition & University) (Utrecht Ziegler Martin Island), Rhode of (University S. Robinson Rebecca A&M), Texas (IODP LeVay Institu Dame), Francisco J. Jiménez J. Francisco Dame), - Cartagena Alejandra Sheffield), of (University Bigg R. Grant Dame), (Notre Berke University (Vrije Lubbe der van cycles interglacial occur at - roughly 100,000 this a as mechanism in key feedback tothe thetransition ‘100- in increase ofmagnitude the escape’ ‘southern and implicate deepcirculation perturbations Southern Ocean conditions and the offormation deep water in Norththe Atlantic the‘escape’ upper into of limb AMOC,the providing between a teleconnection surface in concertThis, with increased- sea resulting in a glaciations, of in considerable redistribution Southernfreshwater the O deep- preceded systematically in Antarcticshifts iceberg melt in the – Indian - multi of events leadingsequence to unclear. remains conditions global Here,glacial we show howevertoday, anabsence of evidence onthe of origin phenomenonthis means that the ofduring periods glacial the past 1.5 AMOCmillion years the was different markedly climateinfluences onvarious global Palaeoceanographic evidencetimescales. suggests that Th (Lamont Hemming R. Sidney Sciences), of Academy Chinese University; (Lanzhou Zhang Xu Institute), Wegener (Alfred Rackow Thomas Aidan glacials Pleistocene during ocean circulation reorganize icebergs Antarctic past? the in changed climate has Why 2. [Type here] [email protected] e andgeometry vigour of the Atlantic Meridional Circulation Overturning (AMOC)

te), Jens Gruetzner (Alfred Wegener Institute), Nambiyathodi Lathika (NCPOR Goa), Leah J. J. Leah Goa), (NCPOR Lathika Nambiyathodi Institute), Wegener (Alfred Gruetzner Jens te), proxy evidence andiceberg demonstratingtrajectory results northwardmodel that Starr * (

Cardiff University Cardiff

- Espejo (CSIC Espejo ), ),

Amsterdam), Gregor Knorr (Alfred Wegener Institute), Melissa A. Melissa Institute), Wegener (Alfred Knorr Gregor Amsterdam),

Ian R. Hall (Cardiff University), University), (Cardiff Hall R. Ian water mass reorganizations during Pleistocene- during reorganizations water mass ice cover, enabled positive buoyancy to anomalies - Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University), H. J. L. L. J. H. University), Columbia of Observatory Earth Doherty

- UGR Armilla; JAMSTEC), Xun Gong (Alfred Wegener (Alfred Wegener Gong Xun JAMSTEC), Armilla; UGR year periods. Atlantic SouthernOcean – (0

Stephen Barker (Cardiff University), University), (Cardiff Barker Stephen kyr world’, in whichkyr glacial 50° E) E) 50° Sierra (Notre (Notre Sierra era era . The coeval The . cean. from from

– 16

5/26/2021 * years. temperatu pervasive satellites1979, since of observations has that made reliable and consistent withcloses how proxy the geological the data past comparesfrom to the and direct about us tells the as briefly discussed, they observations affect the in particular.. and Northern inintroduced the section. ofThe effects first the differencesfundamental betweengeological and conduction to heat transport to as space, regulated by the overall system control ofsummary the relative of thetributions con physical of mechanisms convection radiation, reference particular with contributionto ofthe the effect. greenhouse This includes a Earth”"vacuum temperature, theoretical the to compared to space, relative temperatures lapse the arerate briefly descr this (ii) system, the Within relative contribution to of and cause the various components of proximalat the to extremes today. andscale, how hence the observed stability and is delivered, the of likelihood points tipping internal endfrom external both causes, cyclic and are that exceptional, quantified for further ofthe cyclicrange that proxy effects the shows, record natural the response to perturbations within the equilibrium relatively of narrow range wetemperatures will observe. This include controlclimate system within the surface environment adjusts itself to a stable maintain and reflected directly re infra radiated as how red. particular In the levelmacro planetary their controlling factors the major and energy andinter related inter dependent parts. direct the anomaliesassess the between proxy the geological pre data - from shortof the warm interglacial andin era, particular using bigthe and picture natural data to and proxydirect 21st Centu data from ry observations. The focus is on 10Ka the last plateau thisdescribing system by physics established applying andthe wellmost known, recent, primary the available, of physicalthe Earth’s climate system. controls It onfocusses presentation describes, holistically,This andnecessarily summarily in view the time of sources. direct explained andassessed in terms of the natural observations wellfrom known proxy and and howstructure, that may have in changed 50the last years in particular. system isThe o in terms best, know geologists that areas specialist more the to works a as round, totalsystem, and is intended to give some big picture context howof the physics comesMy in three presentation elements, main address yourthat points interest in of the Brian Richard Lewis The Physics of Climate Systems - 3. Is current our unusual? warming [Type here] (iii) Finally, (iii) the reality of what proxy the datageological temperature hemispheresfrom both (i) climate systemThe global is described in levelmacro of terms the primary of sources [email protected]

measurements of industrial the recent period. The presentation comes in three re observations uniformlyre available the across entire surface of Earththe 40 for

Southern hemispheres on climatesthe of their respective hemispheres are recent interglacialrecent period, its extremes, natural cyclesranges, and trends,

Catt

* ( Institute of Physics of Institute

ibed, andhow the creates lapse rate higher surface

Cause, Effect and Observations )

delivery to delivery to andthe surface return space,to

industrial and civilisations f both scalef and

17

5/26/2021 little show of up fluctuations to 3ppm are largetoo to have been caused by emissions, fuel fossil annualThe increase in atmospheric CO2 appears to rise smoothly, but year is shownwarming, to be incorrect. hum rising that conjecture AGW they are the temporary of result natural in whatfluctuations is an overall trend. cooling The on days/weeks/months sincerecord the Industrial Revolution but it began, asis misleading, It cooling. may bevalid to claim thethat 21s and 2019ENSO of beginning century.this pause inThis warming was by interrupted then the 2016El Niño between 1910and1942 and again 1978from to the El a curious one, because the world’s which average temperature, markedly increased The inposed question the Society’s position latest paper ‘Is the current warming unusual?’ is Howard Warming to Global Pause fuel the emissions and of fossil contribution The 3. Is current our unusual? warming [Type here] * here presented indicate that is incorrect.this are 1950, fully all of responsible for warming the data hasthat occurred The then. since view scientific the stillwidely promulgated appears to be humanthat emissions around since avanishingly small, conjecture well by climate supported data examined.the Nevertheless, onlythat oneof them, human CO2 emissions could be system’s the i mainspring, alwaystrends so overturn. With processes, andcounteracting many contributing the chance simple populationengineering, dynamics and the stock wheremarket; long term linear as witnessed fluctuate, thecharacteristically from electronics disciplines of and mechanic orders ofspatiotemporal magnitude. Such nonlinear, systems nonequilibrium system is notthat in equilibrium, with multiple feedback processes involving several oneis not single climate, but anumber of very types, different all of part a dynamical global phraseThe Climate Change is not only apleonasm, but is deeply because confusing, there nts plangovernme to replace fossil fuel western of fact, failures repeated Despitehappen. these not do that catastrophes predict which long “the - IPCCThe once described the world’s as climate non a “coupled but onhypotheses, observations. of results Importantly, the analysis presented are in basedform, graphical not on or models changes,temperature in withaccordance Gas Law, Henry’s but with avariable time lag. Abundant data demonstrates changesgeological that in atmospheric CO2 follow always and aselection of data global temperature sets by NOAA,kept UAH, CSIRO and others. stations, measuring CO2 emissions, fossil BPfuel from Annualthe Energy Review 2020, The dataThe examined are primarilyCO2 world atmospheric records from aseries of arerelative terms, smallmuch too volumetrically impact concentrations.. to global [email protected]

Dewhirst -

to - no in change over rate Suchtime. changes in rate dothat occur, while in large * ( term prediction of climate states is notfuture Yet possible.” they continue to - IOD warming events, and the world is now in the throes aof LaNiña ) London of Society Geological the of Fellow

an CO2 emissions are an causing increase in global

- based energy with unreliable renewables. t centuryt some contains of the warmest

Niño of 1998, began cooling the from

- linear chaoticlinear system”, for - on- year

- s

wide

which

al al 18

5/26/2021 trends. general neutral or are: These slightly cooling 1852 timeHadCRUT4 series can be into roughly intervalsfour characterised astime defined Forinterpolated. consistency CMIP5 with output models, is used climate up to 2011. as hasselected it the (a) most changestable log time and with is not(b) spatially versions available baseddifferent are on the is station same underlying data. HadCRUT4 The averages. temperature global construct to used are observations temperature Surface * Ashley glacier, sea level and HadCRUT4 surface temperature observations post rates and warming timing of onset warming Comparison 3. Is current our unusual? warming [Type here] years. sensitive/earlier more response time than the database whichglacier average around tor=60 expected to bevery sensitive temperature changes to andwould beexpected to have a McKay which (2014) &Kaufman shows ons alikely warming retreat the Finally, glacial timing is also consistent thewith sea Arctic of ice reconstruction but also contradictingobservations the climate model results. centuryC20th two the for rates warming nostarted later 1850than andpotentially early as 1833. as The ratio of the GL derived GLtemperature reconstruction datafrom shows response toglacier a warming totrend have and the temperature reconstruction of Leclercq data isGlacier on based comprehensivethe and ofexhaustive Leclercq et al dataset (2014) about 1840.than both contradicts This finding and HadCRUT4 the climate model results. the observedlag, onset SL of wouldrise require the onset o a window) gives cross of thecorrelation of rate ofchange the SL data and HadCRUT4 year(30 100yearslope, withnot climate models. onset of The across the linear commencesSL trend in but 1856 , rate the for two warming periods C20th is consistent 1.3x, with but observations HadCRUT4 and Two physical direct other measurements are sensitive temperature: global to level sea (SL) observed warming rates. output. temperature is There a therefore factor of two between discrepancy and modelled 3x net of the andforcing period the earlier thi of averageratio net 1975- forcing temperature outputresultant also show the onset warming aboutof from 1900 - abovedescribed HadCRUT4. for Like HadCRUT4 thete clima model and input forcing of function time which are as used inputs. netThe followsforcing same the patterntrend CMIP6)CMIP5 (and climate onlymodels respond to imposed prior a as curves forcing 1.5x. warmingmodern is circa 1900 - or slightlyneutral cooling 1945 [email protected] glacier length (GL) data.glacier Using SLthe dataset of Jevrejeva (2014), the ratio of the SL

Francis

* ( Independent, Fellow of Royal Astronomical Society Astronomical Royal of Fellow Independent, - correlation peakcorrelation of R=0.91 with alag of 16.3 years. Adjusting this for

-

1910. The ratio of warming the ofrates the two is periods

1980 andstronger warming 1980 - 2005 to 1910-

periods is 1.4x, close to the temperature temperature the to close is1.4x, periods s is s also evident climate in the resultant model

1945 shows later the period is withmodelled and Oerlemans (2011). The L&O2011 -

et 1810 a f notemperature trend later 1910; warming 1910

)

2011. The onset of onset 2011. The -

1820. sea Arctic ice is - LIA using

1910. The 1910. -

1945;

- 19

5/26/2021 indicators, alsotemperature ice core other data, presented records The include well the known and ice tested core andother proxy duringEurope the Eemian is discussed, relative to today. availablethe proxy clima of detail The natural the reality in termsis of presented the direct observations, geological climate system. of the operation is in terms ofinterglacial and interglacials, whatpast Eemainthe can us tell about the natural Holocene is nearing interglacial, that its probable end, to assess how cur anomalous the cyclesice age over the last 3Million discussion years. willThe event this to relate the current the cycle interglacials, presentation discusses the previousThis and warmest of the current 100Ka series of ice age * John Christopher The and Eemian Hippopotamus, the Consider 3. Is current our unusual? warming [Type here] riverbanks. the when were Hippos andElephants native of to Northernthe Europe,rivers and Lions roamed bet andtemperature changing CO2 levels, and the actual observed extent of the anomalies as suggested points an existentialthe between threat, actual relationship surface tipping realityof the regards as discussion for questions interesting poses This Holocene. which is then contrasted observed thewith recent during change industrial periodthe of the known range of natural conditions have that and applied, the apparent role of CO2 in this, conclusion In the presentation ofand rate change in observedglobal temperature in the record over the studied time. periods also discussed, the the changes observed in the in overall climate terms of the range [email protected] ween temperature today's and change that of other the In interglacials. Eemian, particular

- Matchette

Eemian, in the context of the entire series of 41Ka and 100Ka period te data,te and, in particular, actual andthe flora of Northern fauna Downes

reviews stability of the the control planetary under system the

* (

Fellow of the Geological Society of London of Society Geological the of Fellow

including carbon dioxide levels throughout

)

rent rent 20

5/26/2021 reconstructions. In order reconstructions. our interpret proxyto warm early Eocene, bycharacterised CO in precipitation the Here, we subtropics. arid contrast hydrologicalthis to cycling the during the temperatures, holds paradigm that “wet areas dry wetter, gets areas under drier” get higher global the general future. in the patterns While rainfall seasonal in and regional shifts specific critical both humanare for soci in increase and global mean extremeprecipitation events. precipitation changes these While indicate with that Projections together warming ofglobal Earth’s climate will an come J. Margot hothouse the in isotopes in early Eocene water gradients meridional Strongly reduced 4. What does the geological record indicateglobal about [Type here] Specifically, weSpecifically, present a new of late compilation Paleocene – interesting in of light interesting wetthe proposed at present.than precipitation variability Regional high in subtropical is whichthe band, is depleted less withland,high muchover δD inprecipitation of meridional gradient n wax precipit Community Earth SystemCommunity Model version 1.2 (iCESM). we sense, a mechanistic employ early Eocenesimulations using the water isotope precipitation (δD, δ (δD, precipitation expect those * UK) Southampton of (University Inglis Gordon USA), (NCAR) Research [email protected] - alkanes. linealkanes. withIn work, earlier our indicate preliminary a results strongly reduced ation, based on newly generated and compiled data of δDleafof measuredon and newlyfossil compiled data based on ation, generated

Cramwinckel

ed 2150 for high emission under scenarios. employ water isotopes of We warm Miocene seem andPliocene instead to increased record 18 O) as a O) means of tracking the dynamics of the cycle. hydrological * ( University of Southampton, UK Southampton, of University

eties andeties natural ecosystems, large uncertainty exists onthe - wetter, dry wetter, 2

levels and temperature distributions similar to - based δD patδD based - drier hypothesis andMiocene- ), ), Jiang Zhu (National Center for Atmospheric Atmospheric for Center (National Zhu Jiang

v. regionalv. change? terns andterns in meridional gradient

early Eocene (LPEE) δD ofearlyδD (LPEE) Eocene

Pliocene

latitude - enabled 21

5/26/2021 linearity andregionality of the response of African to insolation hydroclimate forcing. new onshed light provenancethe dust supply of Northto the Atlantic Ocean andon the high standspalaeolake even when was comparatively forcing insolation Our results modest. t over varied onprecessional timescales the last glacial supply cycle. Minima in dust from at Site silicate 662fraction show the that contribution of these Sahelian central palaeolakes sourcey. Largedust toda downcore in excursions isotope radiogenic ofcomposition the palaeolakeencompasses Megachad and the Bodélé productive Earth’s Depression, most the source ofmain terrigenous material winterto the plume today. PSA central The areassource (PSA) of North Africa (Jewell al., EPSL) et 2021, shows that PSA central the is of our lateComparison Holocene data to the preferential dust geochemically fingerprinted cycle. last glacial the provenance for dust tosituated study the palaeo- 662 Site ODP in eastern the equatorial Atlantic. showWe that SiteODP ideally 662 is 21 the vulnerable anthropogenically to AfricaNorth is home to people livingmillions of states in nation considered to beparticularly * Southampton). of University Science, Earth and Ocean of (School A. Wilson Paul Southampton), of University Archaeology, of (Department Pike Alistair Southampton), S Earth and Ocean of (School Xuan Chuang Southampton), of University Science, Earth and Ocean of (School James H. Rachael Southampton), of University Science, Earth and Ocean of (School Milton Andy J. Southampton), of University Science, Earth and Ocean of (School Cooper J. Matthew Southampton), of University Science, Earth and Ocean of (School Amy Quaternary African aridity late North through the regional Reconstructing 4. What does the geological record indicateglobal about regional v. change? [Type here] geochemical recordsgeochemical (radiogenic isotope ( beneath located summerthe (northern) dust plume. Here we high report resolution so from far marine cores about sediment North African sites hydroclimate comes drill from summer (northern) route and awinter route. Virtually(southern) we everything have learnt Dus climate. way assess the to response of North African torainfall past changes climate in global dust accumulatingSaharan in marine sediment cores in Norththe Atlantic Ocean provide a andmagnitude, even of sign, climate ofthe response. windrainfall records Geological - hese sourceshese are suggested allfor the insolation ofmaxima the last 100 signifying kyrs, [email protected] t is t transported to the North Atlantic NorthOcean from Africa via two routes, a main

Jewell st

Century but there is disagreement amongfundamental about projections model the

* (

), ), Southampton of University Science, Earth and Ocean of School

history ofhistory winter dust the andpresentroute of winterrecords

- driven climate change. driven is climate The region very warm over likely to

87 Sr/ 86 Sr andeNd)Sr and core scanning) XRF from

cience, University of of University cience, Anya J. Crocker Crocker J. Anya

blown 22

5/26/2021 More information: https://doi.org/10.1130/G48110.1More information: rapid warming weglobal experiencing are now. to disruptive in cycling wetlands,methane a is that finding particularly concerning given the suggeststemperatures. itThis is the onset of rapid is particularly warming that global notelevated does cycling persist methane into the early Eocene, despite high evidence for intoescaped the atmosphere, would it have led to additional warming. planetary Intriguingly, onsetcyclethe during of Paleocene- the ~56Maximum; million years ago). Our confirmresults a major of perturbation the methane * Bristol). of (University Pancost D. Richard and London), University Holloway E Margaret Bristol), of (University A. Naafs B. David Science), (GNS P. Strogen Dominic Science), (GNS Raine Ian J. Science), (GNS Crouch M. Erica Science), (GNS Kennedy M. mo weHere employ anovel approach geochemical to study wetland methane during cycling the theinto unknown)known (and feedbacks biogeochemical maythat operate in the future. l canrecord act geologica The as a platform to explore these changes and to provide insights FifthChange Assessment Report. However, this feedback was in not assessed fully Panel the Intergovernmental onClimate expected to enhance emissionsmethane wetlands, infrom warming.resulting further whichfeedbacks, may weaken or strengthen the gl warming isAnthropogenic expected a to trigger cascade of biogeochemical terrestrial Gordon Climate 5. When Earth's temperature changed inwhat thewere past, the impacts? [Type here] [email protected] st rapid warming event of last 66the million years Paleocene(the - Inglis - biogeochemistry feedbacks during rapid warming events during rapid warming feedbacks biogeochemistry

* ( ), ), Southampton of University

Megan Rohrssen (Central Michigan University), Elizabeth Elizabeth University), Michigan (Central Rohrssen Megan Eocene Maximum. Thermal someIf of this ne metha

obal temperature response. is Warming

Eocene Thermal

. Collinson (Royal (Royal Collinson .

23

5/26/2021 effects of long of effects opportunityrare to study Paleocene– of succession Helmstedt Mining Lignite the with District 13up to 15 m thick offers the lignites e Th more emissions. 200than greenhouse m gas thickof balance the future to significantly emissionsmethane to the atmosphere. peatlandsTherefore, are likely to contribute cycle of large by organicquantities carbon storing terrestrial but also as a source of primary near such Today, formation. peat changessubject to betweenfrequent marine and conditions, terrestrial repeatedly to leading th proto the and its demisegentle almost continuously in an situation estuarine at theedge southern of ne HelmstedtEoce covers Formation, middle thethe entire Paleogene phase greenhouse whichGermany, includes the upper Paleocene to lower and Schöningen Eocene Formation sedimentaryThe succession of the Helmstedt Mining Lignite in northern District former toalready today. similar developing presently since andgreenhouse fauna had flora reached anevolutionary state periodlast beforegreenhouse today which is especially comparisons to suited thefor eventswarming as such Paleocene- the

A of number studies is devoted effects to the of the recent in COrise * Main, Germany) am Frankfurt Institute Research Riegel (Senckenberg Walter Main, Germany) am Frankfurt 60325 Frankfurt, Museum Main, Germany am Frankfurt K. Olaf greenhouse on a coastal wetland in Northern Germany - of long Impacts impacts? the were 5. When Earth'swhat temperature changed in past, the [Type here] excursions in the bulk organic matter δ matter organic bulk thein excursions - sea eustatic succes the for framework stratigraphic assuch the PETM by use making of pollen and spores as A proxies. new robust environment paralic this to the long- in time.record aim ofThe an ongoing pro successionknown, atthe Schöningen is worldwide unique due to ofthe completeness the communitiesplant across 10 million years during Paleogene the Asgreenhouse. as far timescales. timescales. The Early Eocene Climatic O studies detailed onfor the of reaction plant communities to warming ondifferent global warming eventsterm occurred repeatedly history in the of the earth, they may bethe subject arecenturies a still of Sincematter speculation. long- oncommunities beyond timescales those covered by human the of record the last few sources andsinkssources CO for the in resulting rise global onplant temperatures communities because they as act important [email protected] e subsurface and climate-

Lenz - North Sea. Due to between the interaction changes in level, sea salt withdrawal in

* ( level now changes. It allows an exact of carbon distinct correlation isotopefor Senckenberg -

and short

and short and

-

2 term climate perturbatio Research Institute and Natural History Museum Frankfurt, 60325 60325 Frankfurt, Museum History Natural and Institute Research . However,. long- ), ),

related changes in runoff the hinterland thefrom area was Volker Wilde (Senckenberg Research Institute and Natural History History Natural and Institute Research (Senckenberg Wilde Volker

- term climate variations during the the during Paleogene variations climate term - coastal wetlands play amajor role in the al carbon glob term event of the EECObut also to short Eocene near sion is based ona combination of biostratigraphy and 13 Eocene MaximumThermal represent (PETM) the CTOC record record CTOC individualto events.the thermal ptimum and (EECO) its superposed short ject isject to study the of response the in vegetation term effects of present global warming on plant plant on warming global of present term effects and Natural History Museum Frankfurt, 60325 60325 Frankfurt, Museum History Natural and ns on ns diversitythe of andcomposition the - coastal and ecosystems to trace the

term periods andshort greenhouse

2

in the atmosphere and

- term events - term term

- 24

5/26/2021 morphotypes typically have lower δ typically lower morphotypes have morozovellids (that may cryptic species) represent Atlantic sitesfrom showthe Stable isotopesmorozovellid decline. carbon onnumerous sinistrally anddextrally coiled Pacific 1209 Site tropical data) (unpublished and may besomewhat related to the switchCIE. This coiling is at recorded the Atlantic aforementioned three and the sites at predominantlyswitched from to dextral withinmostly EECO, sinistral the K/X after the slightly dep deeper slightly the that became lessgroup former reliant on photosymbionts and/or may have moved to dweller with the lower δ insurvived, low though at abundance, the expense of dextral within coupledforms EECO, crater Preliminary changes. paleoceanographic Mg/Ca Sitedata from 1263 reveal Morozovella that dependentless on partnershipstheir photosymbiotic and thus able to tolerate δ in reduction general of algal reduction Even state. saturation though ableaching at test 1051 Site revealed onlya transient inhibition photosymbiont in decreasecrease in(bleaching), temperature, in pH calcite and/or sizethe reduced and the permanent morozovellid decline. includeThese algal Atlantic from sitesODP 12581051, and1263. Several stressors may potential explain both adiversity. Second, in reduction morozov andpermanentlysignificantly while Acarinina excursion isotope the abundance(CIE). Specifically, anddiversity of Morozovella and Pacific Oceans, Tethys) onset near the of E and Acarinina. This turnover occurred rapidly multiple diverse sites at from latitudes (Atlantic betweenthe turnover two dominant thegenera, mixed- with least assemblages significantly at aspects. different Athree fir EarlyThe Eocene Climatic (EECO; Optimum ~ 53 - Kirtland Ireland) College, Dublin of University the Dublin, College (Trinity J.R. Dickens, UK), London, College University Sciences, Earth of B. (Department Italy),Wade Ferrara, of University Terra, della e Scienze di Fisica (Dipartimento Valeria foraminifera on planktic Biotic impact of past warm events: effects of Early Eocene Climatic Optimum temperature changed in Earth's what thewere past, the impacts? When 5. [Type here] Acarinina coalingensisAcarinina * USA). Riverside, zon in supply, increase andthermocline temperature oxygen content within the oxygen minimum environmental stressthe induced by the ECCO interval. A combination of reduced food Chiloguembelina assuch pH decrease should beexplored. virtualThe disappearance of the genus one reason intheir reduction for abundance and size, potential even other stressor though temperature of bleachingcause in present larger benthic tropical The higher riseforaminifera. in [email protected] e may explain chiloguembelinids in decline the of early the EECO.

and Luciani Subbotina spp. Subbotina

M. su M. recorded byrecorded morozovellid the reduced may symbiotic explain and relationship * (

Dipartimento di Fisica e Scienze della Terra, University of Ferrara, Italy Ferrara, of University Terra, della Scienze e Fisica di Dipartimento 13 bbotinae

- C signatures of the suggests C signatures that former, sinistral the weremorphotypes at the at beginningEECO in the Atlantic isOcean anadditional evidence of symbiont relationships just after the morozovellid abundance decline, a decline, abundance morozovellid after the just symbiont relationships th in the mixed-

13

and C through the EECO is recorded from the Atlantic sites. This suggests suggests sites. ThisAtlantic the from EECOis recorded the through

gradient (~0.5 gradient ‰) between morozovellids andthe thermocline record arecord major warming EECO,across and more than ofthat A. soldadoensis A.

Turner S. Turner layer. layer. directionThird, the of coiling Morozovella 13 C values. C values. The dominance of sinistral that morphotypes

(Department of Earth Sciences, University of California, California, of University Sciences, Earth of (Department ellid test ellid . . Increased temperature is considered aprimary concurrently increased in abundance increased concurrently and ECO andveryECO close to the carbon “J” - - size EECO across occurred as recorded 49 ma) impacted planktic foraminiferal planktic foraminiferal impacted 49 ma) layer symbiont st includes major change -

bearing Morozovellabearing

that sinistral that ), ), decreased decreased Luci species species ani V.. V.. ani 25

5/26/2021 the that rising temperature characterising changethe actual climate may lead to a variation thatclimatic occurred in a whichcontext was warmer than depositionthe of massive marl. This study highlights ecosystemthe response to the cyclical bottom the from the DCM bottom restoring conditions oxygenated andpromoting occurred, andthe temperature the started input freshwater a to decrease, weakening of the ex deepthe photic zone, where a Deep Chlorophyll Maximum (DCM) was established. When t a progressive records toward awarmer/humid shift climate (insolation atmaxima); this time, organic consequent carbon preservation in the sediments. The upper part sapropelof the organic carbothe n torain the sea floor and to ofthe establishment bottom anoxia and the starting atcolumn precessionthe maxima minima); this(insolation resulted in anincrease in deposition sapropel The were by triggered primary enhanced productivity the water in atcondition the time of its deposition. by peculiarcharacterised micropaleontological content, reflecting and diatomite sapropel) sandwiched lithology between each massive marls; was ofdeposition sedimentary cycles composed ofquadripartite organic rich marls (e.g. in theVariation Earth orbital mostly parameters, precession ( ecosystem. Mediterranean on the scenario impacts possible future suggests betteris to constrain the changesenvironmental with climaticassociated instability and long time interval preceding the of inception Messinianthe Salinity ( Crisis Messinianthe of sediments the marginal basin of Sorbas (S the weHere the present calcareous nannofossil and response in (changes benthic foraminifers sea.Mediterranean the purpose,candidate this andfor apossible analogue near the impactfor future scenarios of warmer with surfacesea c temperature analysing record geological time interval by pattern. similar characterised The Messinian, temperature on current rising the marine ecosystem could beconstrained the from an succession excellentrepresents of record on the marine biota. In this the perspective, Mediterranean Neogene sedimentary better study constraining andthe for timing magnitude of climate the change andits impacts an case parameters excellent environmental compared them making to the openocean, marginalThe and basins restricted aremarine by characterised conditions more fluctuating ecosystem. in anincrease in the thatglobal temperature, are expected to severely the impact marine anthropogenic CO2Huge emissions are altering the biogeochemica global * Turin) of University Science, Earth of (Department F. Lozar Turin), of University Science, Earth of ((Department L. Pellegrino Earth of (Department F. Pilade Turin), of University Science, Earth Maria Alan analogue for the future impact on the Mediterranean ecosystem? during t changes and environmental climatic cyclical highlight the foraminifers benthic and nannofossils Calcareous 5. When Earth's temperature changed inwhat thewere past, the impacts? [Type here] he bottom anoxic condition was by maintained relatively productivity high andexport from [email protected] assemblage, absolute and abundance to themorphometry) climatic variation recorded in

Mancini

* ( ), ), Turin of University Science, Earth of Department

ompared to the present, anmay ideal represents

the the past climatic changes. ofThe impact the he Messinian: apossible - E Spain) and a 25spanning kyr ≃ Science, University of Turin), Turin), of University Science,

21000 yrs), in resulted the Gennari R. (Department of of (Department R. Gennari the environmental the environmental today. Our study Our today. reveals

~ l cycles resulting l cycles resulting

6 Ma). aim Our

port to port 26

5/26/2021 ecosystem,Mediterranean especially benthic one. the This feedback in response to the rising temperature will s anddeoxygenation to an increase in carbon burial Mediterranean in the marginal basins. [Type here]

ignificantly impact the impact ignificantly 27

5/26/2021 planktic and benthic δ benthic and planktic volcanism, prior tovolcanism, the K/Pg mass extinction. improvingwillto our contribute of understanding the environmental response to Deccan * Andrews) St of (University Barnet James Dr element and (δ Mg/Ca) isotope stabletrace benthic (B/Ca, and further require volcanism the exact environmentalextinction, andbiotic of impacts Deccanthe preceding trap is widelyimpact as implicated the drivermain of the Cretaceous and the eruption of Deccanthe Large Traps Igneous Province. the Chicxulub Whereas ~66 million years ago, the Earthexperienced eventstwo major – Matthew L. extinction Investigating Deccan 5. When Earth's temperature changed inwhat thewere past, the impacts? [Type here] (c) if similar trends in δ insimilar trends if (c) the(b) of magnitude changes temperature occurred that during Latest the and Maastrichtian, during acidificationwhether ocean occurred Late Maastrichtian the Event (LMWE), Warming theduring Late Maastrichtian Event (LMWE) at Warming 1262.ODP will (a) I investigate; in thequantify changes climate and carbonate chemistry to ocean(related acidification) correlation when the new B/Ca andnewδ when B/Ca the correlation Maastrichtian EventLate (LMWE) in Warming 1262samples.ODP I anticipate: a (1) positive established δ established 1262.ODP A (2) positive between correlation the newMg/Ca trace element data and the but arecords, when negative compared correlation Fe to established intensity at records [email protected]

Staitis

18 O * ( Benthic ), ), Edinburgh of University

18 record at 1262.record ODP A(3) betw positive correlation 18 O and δ and O O and δ - induced environmental changes, prior to the K/Pg mass mass prior K/Pg to the changes, environmental induced research Myresearch focus. MScR project research will planktic paired use

13 13 C records atC records ODP 1262. ofThe results my project research C occurred inC both occurred surface andthe deep during ocean 11 B data are B data tocompared established % CaCO3

Prof Dick Kroon (University of Edinburgh) of (University Kroon Dick Prof

11 - B, δ

Paleogene mass (K/Pg) the Chicxulubthe bolide impact 18 O, δ

een both the 13 C) analyses C) to

28

5/26/2021 * (IPCC). Change and Pleistocene 21stthe century presented as by Panel the Intergovernmental on Climate the Mioceneduring latest and ECSthat was within the range of estimates thefor Pliocene, chan concludethat confidence).95% at We ˚C - CO2)(1.8 of 3.9˚C a be doubling to change temperature surfacefor mean global (ECS, Sensitivity Equilibrium Climate weestimate and feedbacks, slow climate gasses greenhouse change temperature average surface mean global of atminimum Ma. ~5.9 Comparing our ofrecord radiative CO2 from forcing anewwith record suggests record CO2that declined by ppm ~100 over this two million year event 5 (7 to Ma) based on the boron isotope of composition pl changedioxide (CO2) interval the for of most cooling, Laterapid Miocenethe Cooling (LMC) playedrole by greenhouse radiative gas weHere anewforcing. present of carbon record changes these Aremain controversial. major obstacle to progressover the is inty uncerta the far climate Earth’s cooled markedly the during Late - Miocene (12 Rachel Late Miocene CO 6. does How the geological record inform our quantification of climate sensitivity? [Type here] [email protected] - reaching consequences for global ecosystems, but the mechanistic driving forces of forces driving mechanistic but the ecosystems, global consequences for reaching

Brown

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2

and Climate: divorced or an old married married couple? old an divorcedor and Climate:

Thomas Chalk, Paul Wilson, Anya Crocker, Gavin Foster Gavin Crocker, Anya Paul Wilson, Chalk, Thomas ges inges CO2 and closelyclimate were coupled and after accounting non for 5 million years ago, Ma) with Ma) with ago, years 5 million anktic foraminifera. Our Our anktic foraminifera. - long interval to a

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5/26/2021 Earth’s history, COThroughout * St Andrews) of (University M. Whiteford D. Ross Zürich), (ETH Stoll M. Heather Southampton), of (University Foster L. Gavin University), A&M James CO Atmospheric 6. does How the [Type here] Miocene or EoceneMiocene or in the coming century. and major in cuts emissions are required to prevent a return to the CO2 levels of CO2anthropogenic change: Current CO2 levels around were seen last 3 million years ago, intervals. time The Cenozoic highlights record CO2 the truly scale geological of Earthion composition. system climate sensitivityis explored andmay vary between diff outgassing, withto the remaining one- di to alkalinity twoAround - ppm in~550 the and Miocene, into falling further worldice age of the Plio– Cenozoic, C peak with 66 last million years. coupling close betweenfind CO2We andclimate throughout the andin carbonates carbon isotopes in organic matter over the major climate of transition the change. Hereenvironmental we r jwbr@st

* ( * Rae - andrews.ac.uk

thirds ofthirds Cenozoic drawdown CO2 is explained by anincrease in the ratio of University of St Andrews of University ssolved carbon, inorganic likely linked to achange in balancethe of weathering

geological record inform our quantification of climate sensitivity? 2

over the Past 66 Million Years from MarineArchives

O2 levels ppm ~1,500 of in the Eocene decreasing greenhouse, to

2

is thought haveto a exerted on fundamental control eview and revise CO2 boron isotopes reconstructions from ), ),

Yi Ge Zhang (Texas A&M University), Xiaoqing Liu (Texas (Texas Liu Xiaoqing A&M University), (Texas Zhang Yi Ge third duethird to ocean changing temperature and major

Pleistocene. Pleistocene.

the the erent 30

5/26/2021 * Riverside) California, of (University Turner Kirtland Sandra Birmingham), of (University E. Greene high Precise, uncertainty. - into insights - the CO2 releas sensitivity uncertaintyClimate is the greatest in CO2 climate predictions. - Natural future Pam Negative carbon isotope excursions: an interpretative framework 6. does How the geological record inform our quantification of climate sensitivity? [Type here] event with onenvironmental additional constrains changes. paleo- thantemperatures the shorter nCIE. canThe thus notframework only beutilized estimate to carbon butorganic in atmosphericresults CO2 90 ppm lower, and0.3°C colder surface with thedecrease nCIE duration. E.g.onset a and the on impact surface surface pH ocean temperature, global and state saturation ofremoval carbon the atmosphere duringfrom - CO2 of years, longthousands - ( temperature of 0.8°Csurface with anonset duration of 12.5 1,250 kyr requires Pg of organic be can For instance,reconstructed. anCIE of 1.0‰ associated with anincrease in sea the pH, andmass source of carbon release and the change subsequent in CO2 atmospheric 225 In combination kyr. environmental other with such constraints as temperature or ocean nCIEs with geologic ranging sizes from 0.5 to 6.0‰ andonset between durations and 12.5 onweathering atmosphere- impactsincludes the of ocean carbonate circulation, compensation, and terrestrial presentWe a offramework 432 carbon experiments in anrelease Earth that syste model m due to intricate related tofeedbacks ocean circulation andcarbonate chemistry. the mass of carbon input an into estimate atmospheric CO2for change is straightforward not ignores ofapproach effects negativethe carbon cycle- often equation asserves a estimate order first the for mass of carbon input, but this t and durationmagnitude inform us about associated of the mass carbon assuming release, cansedimentary records beused to identify episodes of carbon release and the nCIE Beyondobtain. the age of ice- he carbon source andits isotopic aresignature known. isotopic A simple mass balance - [email protected] 22‰) carbon, resulting in amaximum rise of ~310 ppm CO2. On timescales greater than

Vervoort e events of past withthe evidence of simultaneous warming offerglobal crucial CO2 CO2 associatedrise with anC

* ( ), ), Riverside California, of University

temperature relationship attemperature relationship that time and help narrowing down the term negative carbon cycle resolution paleo - ocean carbonate chemistry. isThe framework a to interpret tool

cores, negativecores, carbon in isotope (nCIEs) excursions IE, butIE, also to better constrain durationthe of a geologic CO2 reconstructions areCO2 however reconstructions to difficult 1.0‰ nCIE over 50 kyr 250 Pg requires more Markus release events. release The relative in CO2 rise feedbacks play anotablefeedbacks in role the

Adloff (University of Birmingham), Sarah Sarah Birmingham), of (University Adloff slating slating tran Plus, feedbacks. climate

31

5/26/2021 over fifty projections over fifty will nee determine researchers are projections that useful only over fifty thisuse same time duration consistently projections. whenFor if example, making over whichduration t IConsequently, (1) recommendations: give two that chooseresearchers a time useful sorts of climate are different projections ormore less useful over particular timescales. willis underdetermined. I argue choosing that aduration primarily depends on our purposes; in way.scaling this duration the particular Specifically, over which should rates becompared inbeen established the of half first the is not talk, us sufficient howtelling for use to temporal change. Knowingclimate that scaling istemporal tonecessary c analogues paleoclimate to draw about conclusions orthe effects trajectory contemporary of Second, I give two recommendations who climate scientists for interested in using are durations, comparablelonger with over durations the whichwe coll overdurations which data are contemporary measured, or scaling contemporary data rate to resolutionlow of temporal historical record) the durations, comparableto shorter with the involve paleoclimate datarate (necessarily scaling over long measured due durations orhigher lower duration. contextIn of paleoclimatethe establishing episodes, willthis either aover measured if been have wouldwhat rate the to rates measured from te extrapola and precipitation, more. Luckily, wespeciation/extinction, use can this relationship to including ofnonconstant, climaterates change, as well sedimentation, as l produce is aprecisethere inverse between relationship anddurations rates (longer durations In aregeneral, rates not independent durationsfrom the over which they are measured, but the past of episodesrates particular of climate change are analogous to in rates the present. hasThis talk two First, aims. I explain is why scaling necessary temporal whether testing for to presentsimilar rates than previously is thought, suggestedas by some data. rates present becan moretely adequa compared, and we may pastthat find arerates more measuredrates over durations vastly to different be comparable. we If do pastso, then and over which measured. By they are using a process called scaling,” “temporal we adjust can as iterroneous, not does take into consideration haveothers argued that the that conclusion past and present arerates disanalogous is analogues paleoclimate to analogies drawing independent of ofrates change. However, is unprecedentedly high. basis,On this many think t contemporaryanalogues for change is climate that the ofrate contemporary change climate is commonlyIt thought onethat major barrier to and establishing paleoclimate using * Aja Analogues Paleoclimate Scaling to Establish Temporal Using Are7. there pastclimateanalogues the for future? [Type here] [email protected]

Watkins d to use d to first temporal scaling to look paleoclimaticfor episodes arethat analogous - year time scales, and then use those paleoclimate only analogues make to ower rates, and viceThis versa). relationship applies in all cases where are rates

* ( Boston Boston

University - year time scales. time year o establish analogy with change, and paleoclimatic (2) researchers that )

the of dependence rates on the durations

hat we need theto of use restrict - year time scales, then they scales, then time year ompare will rates, as have ect paleodata. ect

to the to the 32

5/26/2021