POLEN FOCUS GROWTH STRATEGY Summary • During the Fourth Quarter of 2018, the Polen Focus Growth Composite (The “Portfolio”) Returned -12.59%
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PORTFOLIO MANAGER COMMENTARY Fourth Quarter 2018 POLEN FOCUS GROWTH STRATEGY Summary • During the fourth quarter of 2018, the Polen Focus Growth Composite (the “Portfolio”) returned -12.59%. The Russell 1000 Growth and the S&P 500 returned -15.89% and -13.52%, respectively. For the full year 2018, the Portfolio returned +8.98%, while the returns for the Russell 1000 Growth and S&P 500 were negative at -1.51% and -4.39%, respectively. • The Consumer Staples, Real Estate and Utilities sectors held up best in the quarter, while Dan Davidowitz, CFA the Energy, Technology and Communications Services sectors declined the most in the Head of the Large Company quarter. Our Portfolio outperformed mostly due to stock selection for the quarter and Growth Team full year, which is typical. & Portfolio Manager • After three quarters of very strong returns to start 2018, there was a heavy reversal in the equity markets in the fourth quarter, seemingly driven by a combination of factors. We believe equity market participants, especially in the U.S., had become complacent after roughly a decade of positive returns that have far outstripped the underlying earn- ings growth of corporate America. Additionally, concerns about slowing GDP, slowing earnings growth, trade wars and a U.S. government shutdown seemed to influence some de-risking behavior. We also believe passive and trend-following strategies amplified the negative price performance of equities in the fourth quarter. • Our low debt, high return on equity Portfolio provided downside protection during the Damon Ficklin fourth quarter and a strong positive return for the year. This aligns well with our firm’s Portfolio Manager mission to preserve and grow client assets to protect their present and enable their & Analyst future. Commentary During the fourth quarter of 2018, the Polen Focus Growth Composite (the “Portfolio”) returned -12.59%. The Russell 1000 Growth and the S&P 500 returned -15.89% and -13.52%, respectively. For the full year 2018, the Portfolio returned positivea 8.98%, while the returns for the Russell 1000 Growth and S&P 500 were negative 1.51% and negative Brandon Ladoff 4.39%, respectively. The Consumer Staples, Real Estate and Utilities sectors held up best Portfolio Manager in the quarter, while the Energy, Technology and Communications Services sectors declined & Director of Research the most in the quarter. Our Portfolio outperformed mostly due to stock selection for the quarter and full year, which is typical. After three quarters of very strong returns to start 2018, there was a heavy reversal in the equity markets in the fourth quarter, seemingly driven by a combination of factors. We believe equity market participants, especially in the U.S., had become complacent af- ter roughly a decade of positive returns that have far outstripped the underlying earn- ings growth of corporate America. Additionally, concerns about slowing GDP, slowing earnings growth, trade wars and a U.S. government shutdown seemed to be influencing some de-risking behavior. We also discussed in the third quarter commentary and in a recent white paper Outperformance in the Next Bear Market? that we believe passive and trend-following strategies now dominate equity market volumes in the U.S., likely leading Please reference the supplemental information to the composite performance which accompanies this commentary. to drawdowns with higher stock price correlations and vola- periods of time. So as long as we pay at least fair prices for tility. The nature of the drawdown in the fourth quarter indi- the extraordinary businesses we identify, we continue to be- cates our view may have been directionally correct, although lieve this strategy puts us in the best position to both preserve our low debt, high return on equity Portfolio was still able to clients’ assets and then grow these assets at attractive rates provide some downside protection during the fourth quarter over the long term. sell off, despite high correlation. Our Portfolio was also able to provide a strong positive return for the full year despite a We certainly believe our strategy reduces risk and provides down year in the market. more opportunity to grow versus the approach of investing in an index fund or similar portfolio where, by definition, many As an aside, we encourage you to also read the Polen Global average-to-poor companies must be owned, as the index is Growth and Polen International Growth fourth quarter and a collection of the good, the bad and the ugly. Having this full year commentaries, as you will see that the same Polen perspective allows us to comfortably spend much more of Capital investment philosophy and process that we have our time maintaining a portfolio full of companies with heavy been executing consistently for 30 years in our Focus Growth competitive advantages and secular tailwinds that we believe strategy led to similar performance and excellent downside will compound earnings at a mid-teens annualized growth protection in a challenging market for those strategies as rate, which should in turn drive a similar annualized return, well. We view this as a testament to our consistent, repeat- assuming we continue to pay at least fair prices for these busi- able investment philosophy and process and our ability to ex- nesses. This isn’t just a theory; this is how we have delivered ecute on our mission of preserving and growing client assets top-level returns over the prior 30-year period for the Focus to protect their present and enable their future across all of Growth Strategy. We plan to maintain this consistency and our strategies. discipline in managing the Portfolio going forward. Revisiting Topical Discussions from 2018 Because the market is simply a voting machine in the short- and Their Importance term, neither we nor anyone else can know which stocks are going to be market leaders in any particular year, if traditional “value” stocks will see a resurgence or exactly how our Portfo- In our previous three commentaries in 2018, we tackled a few lio will perform in the immediacy of a large drawdown in the interesting issues that regularly come up in our discussions market. All we know is the market is a weighing machine over with clients: 1) narrow leadership in the U.S. equity markets longer periods of time, and the earnings of the companies we (First Quarter 2018 Commentary), 2) “growth” versus “val- invest in will be weighed appropriately over the long term. ue” (Second Quarter 2018 Commentary); and 3) thoughts on Our expertise is identifying extraordinary companies that can the next downturn given changes in market structure (Third compound earnings growth over long periods, regardless of Quarter 2018 Commentary). Although we understand these shorter-term issues in the broader market or economy. If we topics have caused our clients at least some consternation, continue to do a good job of identifying these types of busi- which is more than enough to make us want to crystallize our nesses, the absolute and relative returns of the Portfolio over thoughts on these issues, these are all just potential short- time should be similar to the earnings growth of the Portfolio, term issues at the end of the day that we believe are very which is well above the earnings growth of the Russell 1000 unlikely to affect the long-term value of the extraordinary Growth Index or the S&P 500 Index. businesses we invest in. Can the “FAANG” stocks continue to drive the market higher without other companies partic- The Polen Focus Growth Strategy was launched at the end ipating? Will “value” stocks return to favor after a long run of 1988. Our late founder did not predict the U.S. recession of outperformance for “growth” stocks? What happens to in 1990-91. We didn’t predict the Global Financial Crisis in Polen Capital’s portfolios if the next downturn is somehow 2008-09. Like everyone else, we never saw 9/11 coming. very different than the previous ones? These are all import- We’ve never predicted where interest rates were going at any ant issues to think through to help ensure we are not missing point in time. We didn’t react to wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. something and that our portfolios remain well positioned to We didn’t react to unemployment reports, durable goods preserve and grow client assets. orders or Presidential elections. We never try to “time” the market. We don’t sell “growth” and buy “value” or vice ver- We believe we have a structural advantage in the way we sa. It is far more difficult in practice than it sounds on paper, manage portfolios for the long term and our experience, sin- but all we focus on is investing in the roughly 20 exceptionally gular focus and consistent results support this belief. While strong businesses that have attractive growth opportunities new issues come and go, and economies can boom and bust, and massive barriers to competition. It is that simple for us. the concept of investing stays very constant in our view. We We have a team of exceptionally bright people, but more im- believe investing should involve thinking like a business own- portantly, we are highly disciplined and motivated to work er and aligning clients behind only the most financially supe- within our time-tested investment philosophy and process rior and competitively advantaged businesses that can com- because we strongly believe this leads to optimal results for pound earnings and free cash flow at high rates over long our clients. Please reference the supplemental information to the composite performance which accompanies this commentary. A Reminder of Why We Own Safeties negative articles on the company, but we have not seen any new information in these articles that changes our long-term view on the company.