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Tornado Warning Messaging Effectiveness in Oklahoma: How Does the Public Perceive Its Risk?

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Tornado Warning Messaging Effectiveness in Oklahoma: How Does the Public Perceive Its Risk? TORNADO WARNING MESSAGING EFFECTIVENESS IN OKLAHOMA: HOW DOES THE PUBLIC PERCEIVE ITS RISK? By JAMES D. AYDELOTT Bachelor of Science in Meteorology The University of Oklahoma Norman, OK 1990 Submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate College of the Oklahoma State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE December, 2020 TORNADO WARNING MESSAGING EFFECTIVENESS IN OKLAHOMA: HOW DOES THE PUBLIC PERCEIVE ITS RISK? Thesis Approved: Haley C. Murphy, PhD Thesis Adviser Marten W. Brienen, PhD H. Tristan Wu, PhD ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This endeavor would not have been without the love, patience and unending support from my wonderfully kind, patient wife, Robyn. Already forced by my job to be a single parent each evening, she’s added elementary teacher/principal to her resume, while we navigated virtual school due to COVID-19. To our children, Emily and Dylan, you’ve seen my long hours at a computer. I hope you’ll grow to be inspired by this: to stay curious, to seek knowledge, and to never stop learning. To my friends, especially Dr. Blaine Gaddis, thank you for your support, motivation, advice, and wisdom. Thank you for understanding why I haven’t seen many movies or tv shows recently. I’m thankful for Dr. Alex Greer, who reassured me, and instilled me with confidence, when I doubted my ability to survive being a grad student. He performed a miracle, by turning academic paper-writing from something I dreaded to something I (almost) enjoy. He also demonstrated how the review pane in a Microsoft Word document can indeed be longer than the original paper. Lastly, my gratitude is extended to my thesis committee. Dr. Marten Brienen, who stoked my curiosity and love of lively discussion, and challenged everyone in my first class to fact-check him (and he was right; every single time). Dr. Tristan Wu, thank you for patiently answering my research design and statistical methods questions, for rescuing hypotheses from a lean dataset, and for sharing how he completed a 20 page paper overnight. Finally, I’m indebted to the kindness, grace and wisdom of Dr. Haley Murphy, my thesis committee chair. She not only led the program through a move to the College of Engineering Architecture and Technology, but dealt with instructor vacancies, and a global pandemic. In the midst of this, Dr. Murphy kept the program moving forward while also patiently answering my endless stream of questions. For inspiring and cultivating my success, a mere thank you is woefully inadequate. iii Acknowledgements reflect the views of the author and are not endorsed by committee members or Oklahoma State University. Name: JAMES D. AYDELOTT Date of Degree: DECEMBER, 2020 Title of Study: TORNADO WARNING MESSAGING EFFECTIVENESS IN OKLAHOMA: HOW DOES THE PUBLIC PERCEIVE ITS RISK? Major Field: MASTER OF SCIENCE, FIRE AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT Abstract: This study analyzes tornado risk perception and information channel preferences to receive tornado warning notifications and to receive additional information about ongoing tornado warnings. The relationship between age and use of Facebook and Twitter as a severe weather information source is examined. Through an online survey distributed to Oklahoma residents, 117 responses were received and analyzed. In this study, responses are also used to understand what specific information people consider important to receive during a tornado warning. Also, the study will look at specific information or phrasing which will trigger protective action, without delay, when a person is in a tornado warning. This study will examine these parts of the tornado warning process, using the framework of Lindell and Perry’s Protective Action Decision Model. Results can be used to help eliminate delays in protective action decisions caused by ambiguity in tornado warning messaging. Finally, factors which help develop and grow a trust relationship between viewers and television meteorologists (still a critical information channel for tornado warnings) will be analyzed. What attributes, credentials, delivery styles and content of television meteorologists and their presentation will help build viewer trust. Finally, content recommendations are presented for television meteorologists during tornado warnings, to build trust, to provide relevant information, and to prompt viewers to take protective action when needed. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Page I. INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................1 1.1 Severe Weather Statistics ..................................................................................1 1.2 Tornadoes in Outbreaks ....................................................................................2 1.3 Research Objectives ..........................................................................................3 II. REVIEW OF LITERATURE....................................................................................7 2.1 Receiving Warnings and Protective Action ......................................................7 2.2 The Protective Action Decision Model...........................................................11 2.3 Social Media ...................................................................................................13 2.4 Local Television Meteorologists and Trust ....................................................16 2.5 Research Significance .....................................................................................18 III. METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................19 3.1 Survey ..............................................................................................................19 3.2 Amazon Mechanical Turk ................................................................................20 3.3 Demographics of Respondents ........................................................................21 3.4 Methods............................................................................................................24 v Chapter Page IV. ANALYSIS............................................................................................................25 4.1 Information Channels: Use and Content ........................................................25 4.2 Social Media ...................................................................................................31 4.3 Trust in a Television Meteorologist ................................................................32 V. CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................34 5.1 Options ............................................................................................................35 5.2 Summary of Findings ......................................................................................37 5.3 Recommendations for Television Meteorologists ..........................................43 5.4 Limitations and Future Study .........................................................................40 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................42 APPENDICES .............................................................................................................46 vi LIST OF TABLES Table Page 3.1 Demographics of respondents ...........................................................................23 3.2 Population of respondents’ communities ..........................................................24 4.1 Respondents’ preferred information channel use while awake ........................26 4.2 Respondents’ preferred information channel use while asleep .........................27 4.3 Respondents’ preferred information channel use during a tornado warning ....28 4.4 Respondents’ importance of information during a tornado warning ................29 4.5 Respondents’ rating of information or phrases from a television meteorologist during a tornado warning which would prompt protective action without delay ..........................................................................................31 4.6 Correlations between age and use of Facebook and Twitter to receive severe weather information, both before and during severe weather ...............32 4.7 Respondents’ rating of factors which help determine the level of trust they have in a television meteorologist .............................................................33 5.1 Content priorities for television meteorologists ................................................39 vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 2.1 Information Flow in The Protective Action Decision Model ............................12 2.2 Social Media/Online Platform Use ....................................................................13 2.3 Social Media/Online Platform Use by Age ........................................................14 viii CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Natural disasters in the United States are taking an ever-increasing economic toll in property damage, and in some cases, cause significant numbers of deaths and injuries. More specifically, the two most violent natural hazards which regularly threaten the United States are tornadoes and hurricanes. This research project will examine particular cues which survey respondents in Oklahoma look for before taking protective action during tornado warnings. Information channels used to receive severe weather warnings and updates will be examined, and specific
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