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From the “Polar Silk Road” to the Arctic Rimland

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From the “Polar Silk Road” to the Arctic Rimland ASIA PROGRAM FROM THE “POLAR SILK ROAD” TO THE ARCTIC RIMLAND: A CASE STUDY OF THE BELT AND ROAD CHALLENGES FOR THE EUROPEAN UNION BY ALEXANDRE CORNET POSTGRADUATE STUDENT AT THE COLLEGE OF EUROPE (NATOLIN CAMPUS, MANUEL MARIN PROMOTION) OCTOBER 2018 ASIA FOCUS #90 ASIA FOCUS #90 – ASIA PROGRAM / October 2018 “If the country through which the route runs be weak, and the route of great significance, the section in question may well become a bone of contention among the great powers of the world and may pay for its advantageous location with its independence”. SPYKMAN Nicholas J., “Geography and Foreign Policy, I”, The American Political Science Review, vol. 32, No. 1, 1938, pp. 28–50 ***** he way the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is dealt with in Europe is at best curious, at worst desperately misleading. While it is still largely unknown to the general public, some nevertheless feel it is necessary to question on a regular T basis the stakes it represents for the European Union (EU) and its members, and even its very existence. For these thinkers, the subject remains sensitive, and the danger so much ideological as economic. It must therefore be asked whether the strongest ideology is not that of these observers, who cling tenaciously to past chimeras, to the "end of history," and offer only a sketchy vision of the "shock" of hermetic civilizations. Because the inconvenient truth is that, despite a few setbacks, there are no "empty roads" or "catch-all plans" when one studies in detail the hundreds of projects falling under the scope of the BRI. Simply a European blindness, maintained, and very unwelcome. To say that these roads are geopolitical is an undeniable fact; that they want to export a threatening mode of governance, a shortcut still unfounded. Let us bet that China considers more the Union under the prism of its largely creditworthy 500 million consumers than as an ideological target for the regime, and its close partners like so many entry points on the European market. That being said, one should consider from a strictly geo-economic perspective the fact that this Chinese international economic project has political consequences. Surely, it is rather a maneuver to reinforce its influence on the European markets, and of course, as a global power, than an offensive solely ideological, eurocentric approach if it is. In the Arctic, as we will see, and as is already the case in Eastern Europe, a more pragmatic reading of the Chinese strategy implemented for the Union via the BRI rather suggests the reality of commercial opportunism, the choice to prioritize ideological flexibility over political disagreements to seize economic opportunities. With this characteristic, of course, to work directly at the national and sub-national levels of close 2 ASIA FOCUS #90 – ASIA PROGRAM / October 2018 European partners, for example members of the European Economic Area (EEA), as well as EU Member States, and not at the aggregate level of the EU, to its greatest concern. The adage is old, "divide and conquer". A sense of business embodied by a "non-interventionist" label, which is smartly based on the political-economic coercion maintained, sometimes still nowadays, between many countries and the West, and namely with members of the Union. It may be argued that the alternative proposed by this “Chinese-style” trade affects us only so much because it puts into question the profound universalism of our own beliefs. All things considered, for some, the worst thing in the story is perhaps that the means deployed by China to seduce its partners within the Union, and even worse their receptivity, also bring to light some unresolved structural issues, such as the absence of a real European industrial policy or the growing lack of solidarity and integration in a context of crisis. And only then, and so indirectly, that this calls into question the strength of the European or even Western model, but only because of its own weaknesses, latent, and cruelly exposed in a time of crisis by a project such as the BRI. It is, of course, advisable not to slide into the opposite thesis, which would naively see in the BRI a project without any risks. The obvious imbalance in the trade balance between the EU and China, as well as the analysis of the first projects labelled "BRI" in Asia, easily show that we are in practice very far from the "win-win" promised by the Chinese authorities. But it’s just another reason why we, Europeans, should try to get a better understanding of the project, of both its potential opportunities and risks, as long as we are still able to react. Because it is a sure fact that History is now turning to the advantage of Asia, whether we realize it or not in Europe. In any case, this ignorance for some, this misunderstanding or even interpretative bias for others, largely justify the fact that we continue to try to better understand what really stemmed from these new silk roads for us, Europeans. However, given the scale of this project, any attempt of analysis intending to be exhaustive within a few pages would be perilous. Actually, it seems more appropriate to reduce the focus to a specific case study, in order to circumscribe the analysis within limits that are both realistic in the face of the material constraints of a short article, but also relevant enough that lessons learned can then feed into more general reflections. As such, the Arctic and the “Polar Silk Road” appear particularly well adapted to this challenge. 3 ASIA FOCUS #90 – ASIA PROGRAM / October 2018 THE ARCTIC, A MAJOR EMERGING CHALLENGE FOR CHINA AND THE EU The interest of this case study stems in particular from the global mutation of the place of the region in the international relations of the new century. Let us recall briefly that since the mid-2000s, global warming and the emergence of new economic opportunities, as well as strategic ones, have contributed to a return to the forefront of the polar territory. From a scientific and environmental point of view, the Arctic represents a laboratory at the same time at the forefront of global warming, but also traditionally open to the logic of international cooperation. From a logistical and commercial point of view, by hoping for more regular openings of the mythical passages of the North-East (NEP, North of Russia) and North-West (NWP, in the North of Canada), the disappearance of the pack ice could ultimately include the Arctic in major regional and even global economic circuits. With the progressive and expected disappearance of the technical obstacle, the stake for the economic operators then becomes to be allowed to move there, that is to say to benefit from a right, or even of a freedom of circulation in the circumpolar region. With this issue of polar navigation, the geopolitical nature of the area reveals its true nature, that of being the "only region to link the three main world economic blocks that are America, Europe and Asia"1 . Of course, this freedom of movement is not only relevant for trade, and also finds its counterpart in terms of strategic issues. Thus, the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the NEP "have a strategic and military interest, which is all the more important [...] because international tensions are worsening"2. The United States, for example, sees in the northern passages the appearance of a sensitive maritime zone, in which they wish to maintain a facilitated navigation of their military vessels3. At the same time, in 2016, Russia was just finishing up six new military bases around the Arctic, "ready for long- term deployments of soldiers in the region"4. Finally, from an economic point of view, the exploitation of natural resources, whose access is facilitated by the melting of the ice, contributes to feed the greed in the region, 1 DEGEORGES Damien, « L’Arctique : entre changement climatique, développements économiques et enjeux sécuritaires », Géoéconomie, 2016/3 (N° 80), p. 85-96 2 KUNZ Barbara, « Les dynamiques géopolitiques de l’Arctique », Politique étrangère, 2017/3 (Autumn), p. 10-13 3 LASSERRE Frédéric, « Les détroits arctiques canadiens et russes. Souveraineté et développement de nouvelles routes maritimes », Cahiers de Géographie du Québec, 48 (135), 2004, p. 397-425 4 KHANNA Parag, « Business Insider analyses a map of the Arctic from Connectography » [Online], May 3, 2016. 4 ASIA FOCUS #90 – ASIA PROGRAM / October 2018 so much so that some could evoke a "battle for the Arctic "5. The resources in question come from the energy field, both carbon and renewable, the exploitation of rare ores, and tourism. In particular, one must note the importance of exploiting the region's fish wealth, whose fishing remains today the main maritime activity. These are all the more attractive because, with the melting ice, an increasing number of fish are moving up from the North Atlantic to the Arctic. These international waters are then offered to an unregulated industrial fishery, while melting ice increases the area of fishing areas and their periods of exploitability. Confronted to these Arctic challenges and opportunities, the challenge for both the EU and China lies in the fact that the riparian states seem to be united around a shared goal in international geopolitics: "to avoid any external interference in the sharing of the zone "6. A common position, which mainly reflects a desire to protect the independence of the region, and this despite the presence of sometimes strong litigation, including territorial. From an economic point of view, this is explained by the intention to make the best long- term use of resources.
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