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Once a Fringe Idea, Geoengineering Moves to Center Stage in Policy Arena

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Once a Fringe Idea, Geoengineering Moves to Center Stage in Policy Arena THE DEBATE IN PRINT Once a Fringe Idea, Geoengineering Moves to Center Stage in Policy Arena limate geoengineering was once the Burns concluded with an overview of the inter- province only of a few radical scientists national institutions that might be applicable Cgaming worst-case scenarios. Today, it is to governing carbon dioxide removal. a dynamic and rapidly emerging suite of poten- Limiting the global average temperature tial responses to climate change. Just a de- increase to below 2 degrees, as envisioned in cade ago considered as on the outer fringes, the Paris Agreement, is already unlikely without deliberate interference in the atmosphere has deploying large-scale technologies that reduce become a credible option as a consequence solar insolation or remove greenhouse gases of increasing evidence of the catastrophic im- from the atmosphere. However, real-world re- plications of a warmer world and the failure of search, let alone deployment at scale, remains the global community to pursue sufficiently ag- deeply controversial, especially given the lack gressive efforts to reduce emissions. of international oversight of these relatively low- ELI convened a webinar bringing together cost technologies that nonetheless have trans- three experts who collectively believe that it is boundary implications affecting all of humanity. time to consider at least two forms of geoengi- Can policymakers addressing climate neering, solar radiation management and car- change today rely upon the technologies of to- bon dioxide removal. Shuchi Talati started with morrow? Which methods seem promising and an overview of the two major genres and some which upon inspection are not? What are the of the research and implementation consid- legal frameworks governing research into geo- erations. Robert James focused on potential engineering — and what is the best policy to domestic legal governance structures, with an manage global deployment? The edited tran- emphasis on solar radiation management. Wil script that follows provides some answers. 52 |THE ENVIRONMENTAL FORUM Reprinted by permission from The Environmental Forum®, May/June 2020. Copyright © 2020, Environmental Law Institute®, Washington, D.C. www.eli.org. THE DEBATE themselves would consume a lot of trend after we hit net-zero emissions. Strong Measures energy. Solar geoengineering can be a method Have Become The landscape for CDR has of peak shaving to limit harmful cli- changed rapidly over the last two mate impacts until carbon removal is a Necessity years. It is beginning to form rare at a large enough scale. Solar geoengi- coalitions that have some Republican neering is absolutely not a substitute By Shuchi Talati support, and both Occidental and for mitigation or adaptation but could Chevron have recently made invest- be used to potentially limit harm. hen considering the word ments in some CDR technologies. There are two main solar geoengi- geoengineering, the termi- Environmental NGOs are also paying neering methods that are discussed in nology is moving away more attention to carbon removal literature: stratospheric aerosol injec- fromW using it as an umbrella term as a necessary tool. Some NGOs are tion and marine cloud brightening. for both carbon dioxide removal, or skeptical about fossil fuel involvement, SAI would inject aerosols into the CDR, and solar radiation manage- particularly in enhanced oil recovery, stratosphere that would then reflect ment (also referred to as solar geoen- leading many NGOs to focus on sunlight to cool the planet. Marine gineering). The two sets of approaches nature-based approaches. cloud brightening would spray aerosol have always been technically different, An example of this rapid change is salts into clouds above the oceans to and are now evolving differently in in Section 45Q of the U.S. Tax Code: brighten them and provide regional- terms of perception and policy. a performance-based tax credit that ized cooling. CDR takes carbon out of the at- encourages companies to permanently According to the IPCC special mosphere and either uses it or stores store or utilize captured carbon, with report on the 1.5 degree goal, SAI is it in plants, soils, or geological forma- varying credits per ton. It has been the most researched method, with tions. The captured carbon can be in existence for some time but was high agreement that it could limit used for fuels, building materials, or revamped in 2018 by a bipartisan co- warming below 1.5 degrees. However, for enhanced oil recovery. Enhanced alition in Congress and now includes there are still uncertain impacts on oil recovery is a controversial practice direct air capture as a method that can global and regional weather patterns. that is already taking place that uses receive these credits. This was the first It doesn’t address all the impacts of the captured carbon to extract petro- time CDR was included in federal law. climate change, such as ocean acidi- leum. Significantly, the fiscal year 2020 fication, and it doesn’t address rising There is an incredible diversity spending package also saw increased emissions. And if solar geoengineering of CDR approaches that are often funding for CDR technologies at the is deployed without CDR and then categorized as nature-based or tech- departments of Energy, Agriculture, stopped, the world would experience nological. But within those categories, and Defense. abrupt changes, known as termination there are differences in approaches All pathways that limit global shock. There are also major geopoliti- that have varying potentials for per- warming to 1.5 degrees with limited cal and governance concerns. manence, implementation, and cost. overshoot would need CDR on the As solar geoengineering research Nature-based approaches generally are order of 100 to 1,000 gigatons of CO2 is in nascent stages, governance over lower in cost and better understood over the 21st century. To put that in that research is a major issue. Research technologically, but they are also more perspective, 10 gigatons is almost dou- governance considers the question of reversible in terms of how long the ble current U.S. emissions. So while should solar geoengineering experi- carbon can potentially be stored. carbon removal is necessary, in all like- ments proceed and, if so, under what For example, afforestation is an lihood it might not be sufficient in the conditions. These conditions would important tool with many co-benefits timeframe that we need it to be. likely include measures to provide in addition to carbon storage, but Which brings me to solar geoen- oversight, transparency, and public the carbon removal would not be gineering. It is important to reiterate engagement. Harvard University has permanent due to events like logging that no one wants to use this technol- proposed the first SAI small-scale out- or forest fires. It would additionally ogy, rather we are being forced to con- door experiment known as SCoPEx necessitate massive land-use change to sider it because we are not aggressively (the Stratospheric Controlled Pertur- offer large-scale removal. A technology reducing emissions and scaling CDR. bation Experiment). The university that has been getting more attention One potential method of deploying agreed to form an independent advi- is direct air capture, a method that solar geoengineering is known as peak sory committee to provide governance removes carbon from the ambient air shaving. In such a scenario, mitigation over the experiment, charged with and then uses it or stores it under- can help prevent future climate im- advising on a range of topics including ground. But costs are still very high, pacts, and increasing the use of carbon scientific review, environmental and research is nascent, and the facilities removal can help to slowly reverse that social risks, and stakeholder engage- 54 |THE ENVIRONMENTAL FORUM Reprinted by permission from The Environmental Forum®, May/June 2020. Copyright © 2020, Environmental Law Institute®, Washington, D.C. www.eli.org. THE DEBATE ment. The outcome of the committee New Orleans but jeopardize Galveston there is recidivism risk, especially could potentially serve as a model for or Mobile instead. down the road if solar geoengineering future outdoor experiments and can When we talk about geoengineer- is launched and later discontinued. inform future governance processes ing, whether by solar radiation man- NEPA requires comparison of the as well. Another important research agement or carbon dioxide removal, it proposed project against alternatives. governance effort is the forthcoming seems we are expecting a bit of magic In the context of research, the key National Academy of Sciences study to occur. But when I read those who is that we should weigh the conse- on solar geoengineering research pri- instead favor drastic emissions reduc- quences of investigation today against orities and governance. It will provide tions, I think getting 190 countries to the potential large-scale benefits of full recommendations on if and how dif- agree to reduce industrial and trans- deployment tomorrow. ferent domains of solar geoengineering portation sources immediately and for In over half the states, there are research should move forward. centuries is also engaging in a bit of NEPA analogues where the states The Union of Concerned Scientists magical thinking. make their own reviews of proposed believes that solar geoengineering mer- For me, whether to use geoen- projects approved by local agencies. In its careful study. However, we oppose gineering is really a debate about California, for example, the agency is deployment and large-scale experi- whether it can mitigate climate change to select the alternative that best miti- ments for the foreseeable future due impacts. To answer that question, we gates the environmental impact. to the substantial risks and uncertain- need investigations on efficacy and In addition to these planning laws, ties they pose. We support modeling potential downsides. there are laws governing the actual and observing natural events, and we Of the challenges to research, I release of materials.
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