CONTENT
❑ Introduction
❑ Climate of Sri Lanka
❑ Natural Hazards in Sri Lanka
❑ National Weather Service Department of Meteorology
❑ Challenges and Gap
❑ Hydro-met modernization Investment and plan
❑ Summary
1 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka SRI LANKA A Small Island in the Indian Ocean
20.1 million Population Density : 320 Sq. km
9 Provinces (25 districts) Area : 65,610 Sq. km Capital : Sri Jayawardenepura Kotte Languages : Sinhala, Tamil Per capita : $ 4,310
ASIA
2 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka CLIMATE OF SRI LANKA
Tropical and Monsoonal
Two seasonal monsoonal wind regimes
Changing Wind Flow during the year by 180 degrees across the Country Sri Lanka is an island in the tropics
3 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka TOPOGRAPHY AND CLIMATE
Topography
The topography of the island is consists of; Coastal plains, Central mountainous massif Lowland hills The central massif rises up to a maximum elevation of 2,524m at Pidurutalagala.
Mid Climate Average Rainfall : 1860 mm/year Range of rainfall : 950 – 6000 mm Mean Temperature : 27.5 C (lowlands) Lower Temperatures in the highlands
4 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka CLIMATIC ZONES
Three Climatic Zones are identified based on Annual Precipitation (R)
• Dry zone : R < 1750mm • Intermediate zone : 1750 mm < R < 2500mm • Wet zone : R > 2500 mm 5 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka CLIMATE SEASONS IN SRI LANKA
➢ The two monsoon essentially determine the seasonality of SL
➢ The seasons are distinguished only by means of the timing of the two monsoons and the transitional periods separating them, called inter-monsoon seasons
1. Southwest Monsoon (SWM) : May – September
2. Northeast Monsoon (NEM) : December-February NEM December - February 3. First Inter-monsoon (FIM) : March-April
4. Second Inter-monsoon (SIM) : October-November
SWM May - September 6 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka FOUR RAIN SEASONS
30 Year Climatological Average (1961-1990)
Seasons Southwest Northeast First Second Monsoon Monsoon Inter-monsoon Inter-monsoon
Period May-Sep Dec-Feb Mar-Apr Oct-Nov Rainfall (Average) 556 mm 479 mm 268 mm 558 mm
% of Annual 30% 26% 14% 30% Average 7 HAZARDS IN SRI LANKA
Sri Lanka being in the path of two monsoons is mostly affected by weather related hazards
People affected by different disasters in Sri Lanka (1974-2004) Source: Disaster Management Center - Sri Lanka
8 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka CLIMATIC EXTREMES
Frequency of climate extremes, especially those related to rainfall has increased
Some of the highest rainfalls (24H) have been experienced during the last two decades e.g. 493 mm at Colombo 1992 725 mm at Deniyaya 2003 522 mm at Kudawa 2003 338 mm at Ratnapura 2003 440 mm at Colombo 2010 337 mm at Kandy 2012 316 mm at Kurunegala 2012 512 mm at Udugoda 2013 348 mm at Norton 2014 359 mm at Mannar 2015 380 mm at Iranamadu 2016 643 mm at Labugama 2017
Leading not only to Floods But also to severe Landslides (significant increase in landslides)
9 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka CLIMATIC EXTREMES
Highest 24H Rainfall in Colombo on yearly basis from 1869
493.7 mm June 4, 1992
440.2 mm Nov 10, 2010
More and more extreme rain events are experienced.
10 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka CLIMATIC EXTREMES
Recently observed weather related hazards
Year Hazard
2010 Flood 2011 Flood/Drought 2012 Flood/Drought 2014 Flood/Drought 2015 Flood 2016 Flood/Drought 2017 Flood/Drought 2018 Flood/Drought
11 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY - SRI LANKA National Weather Service
Vision A Centre of Excellence in weather and climate related services
Mission To provide services pertaining to Meteorology, Aeronautical Meteorology, Ocean Meteorology, Hydro Meteorology, Agricultural Meteorology, Climatology and Astronomy to government agencies, private sector and the general public in keeping with national interest and international standards.
12 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY SRI LANKA
ORGANIZATION SETUP National Early Warning and Meteorological Centre (NMC) • General Forecasting division • Marine weather forecasting division • Numerical weather prediction division • Observation and plotting division • National Tsunami Warning Centre (NTWC) Approved Cadre : • Communication division Scientific officers 48 Aviation forecasting division • Meteorological watch office – BIA Engineering 04 • Meteorological offices – MRIA/RMA officer Agro meteorological Division Technological 211 officers Radar and Upper air observation division Administrative & 197 Other staff Electronic division Total 460 Centre for Climate Change Studies (CCCS)
Data Archives division
Instrument division
Rainfall and Climate data division
Research division
13 Establishment/AccountsWeather and Climate Services division in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY SRI LANKA
Services Provided by the Department ❖ Provision of meteorological and climatological services to general public and to agriculture, energy, fishery, shipping, insurance and other interested sectors. ❖ Provision of warnings and advisories on bad weather (including Cyclone, Heavy rain, Lightning, High wind …etc) and Tsunami. ❖ Provision of aviation meteorological services ❖ Maintenance of climatological databases ❖ Provision of meteorological and climatological services and data for national development and research purposes. ❖ Encourage study and research in meteorology, climatology, climate change and allied subjects ❖ Organize and contribute to, public awareness programmes on weather, climate and climate change thematic areas. ❖ Organize and contribute to, educational and training programs and workshops for interested groups including school children, policy and decision makers, on mandated thematic areas. ❖ Contribute to exhibitions with exhibits and resource personnel. ❖ Provision of specialized meteorological and climatological services on request. ❖ Provision of limited astronomical (sun, moon, planet and tidal) and terrestrial magnetism related services. 14 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY SRI LANKA
History of Meteorological Network in Sri Lanka (Important Mile Stones) ❑ 1861- Rain Gauge Network
❑ Temperature data are available early 1900’s
❑ At the beginning meteorological service was under the Survey Department
❑ 1948 – Independent institute (Department of Meteorology)
❑ Satellite image receiving System (NOAA USA) – 1973
❑ MSS communication system (2005) – Internet base (TCP/IP)
❑ Automatic Weather System (JICA) – 2009
❑ COMS (KOICA) and FY2 (CHINA) Satellite Receiving System (2011/2012)
❑ Himawari (Japan) satellite receiving system-2017
15 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY SRI LANKA
Present Meteorological data Observing Network
23 Synoptic Stations
4 Upper Air Stations including 3 (three) pilot balloon stations and one (1) sonde station at Colombo (Pilot – only upper air winds) (sonde – winds, temp and moisture)
Synoptic Stations measure meteorological parameters every 3 hours
• Temperature • Rainfall • Atmospheric Pressure • Wind speed and Direction • Relative Humidity etc.
16 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY SRI LANKA
Present Meteorological data Observing Network
Agro-met Stations (40)
Additional Parameters - 2 times per day • Evaporation • Sunshine hours • Soil Temperature • Radiation
17 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY SRI LANKA
Automated Weather Observing System
37 AWS in all over the country including some agro meteorology stations. Observations can be taken every ten minutes in the digital format on the computer.
Communication method: IP/VPN
18 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY SRI LANKA
Present Meteorological data Observing Network
Rain gauge network
manual rain gauges is approximately 500 manned by voluntary observers
Only one time per day
19 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY - SRI LANKA National Weather Service
Where We Are Now?
20 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY - SRI LANKA National Weather Service
Tells the Future Weather Weather Condition in different Prediction time scales
Scientific knowledge and Technology is important Early warning is a major Early element of disaster risk Warning reduction
Our target is to achieve theses two for better service for general public and different sectors to contribute economy of Sri Lanka
21 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OFWeather METEOROLOGY Forecasting: - SRI LANKA National Weather Service
Weather forecasting at present in the department is performed using mainly subjective techniques with numerical weather products used as guidance. Outputs of numerical weather prediction models of India Meteorological Department (IMD), and European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) are used extensively as guidance for forecasting at the National Meteorological and Early Warning Centre.
The implementation of an in-house numerical model for Sri Lanka area and neighborhood based on WRF model which is a next-generation mesoscale numerical weather prediction system used for both atmospheric research and operational forecasting was started in 2015. This local area model which is initialized by the output of global model runs at advanced centers is presently used on experimental basis in the department for forecasting up to 5 days ahead with promising results.
Department of Meteorology at present disseminate the seasonal weather forecast to its stakeholders every season. This seasonal weather forecast which is developed utilizing output of several advanced global models is used extensively by Agriculture and Irrigation departments in their activities.
Improving capabilities of the Department of Meteorology for accurate weather forecasting at different time scales such as nowcasting (00 -02 hrs), very short range (up to 12 hrs), short range (12 hrs - 03 days), medium range (03- 10 days), extended (10-30days) and long range (01 month- 02 yrs including seasonal) and subsequent early warning services are an extreme necessity.
22 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY - SRI LANKA National Weather Service
Weather Prediction
•Next 1 to 3 days (Short Range Weather Forecast) ✓ •Next 3 to 10 days (Medium Range Weather Forecast) Dynamical Methods •10 days to 1 month (Extended Medium Range ) Dynamical Methods •Next month (Long Range Forecast ) ✓ Statistical and Dynamical Method •Next season (Seasonal Forecast ) ✓ Statistical and Dynamical Method •Next 100 years (Climate Projections ) ✓ Dynamical Methods
23 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY - SRI LANKA National Weather Service
To minimize the hazards
Early •Next 6 hours (Very Short Range Weather Forecast) Warning •Next 1 hour to 3 hour (Now-casting)
To prepare Weather Forecast in above time scales ❑ Doppler Weather Radar ❑ Dense AWS network ❑ Speed Data Communication Technology ❑ Latest technology with instruments ❑ High speed computers ❑ More sophisticated, accurate and reliable Climate data Measuring instrument ❑ Mathematical and Scientific knowledge about Atmosphere and its motion
24 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY - SRI LANKA Challenges and Gaps
Surface Synoptic Observations: Upper Air Observations: The existing surface synoptic observation networks are not adequate Consist only of one solitary station in to identify smaller scale weather Colombo. systems. Establishment of a GPS based Temporal resolution of observations are radiosonde greatly help in the need be enhance identification of upper air systems.
Lightning Detection and Tracking: lightning strikes cause approximately Agro-met Observation:
30 deaths every year. property loss runs Observation Network Existing observation network are need into millions of Rupees. be upgrade with latest technology to Identification and tracking of severe observed crop weather relationship to thunderstorms can be performed from boost agricultural production the EWS.
25 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY - SRI LANKA Challenges and Gaps
Important for better Public Weather Service (PWS) / Early Warnings for DRR
Initial steps have been started for impact-based forecast / warning
We are here
Source : WMO
26 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY - SRI LANKA Challenges and Gaps
Marine Weather Forecasting
▪Sea areas forecast (around the island/International sea) - two times per day ▪3 days forecast (Multiday Boats )-Indian Ocean - once a day ▪10 day forecast - once a day
27 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY - SRI LANKA Challenges and Gaps
Marine Weather Forecasting In terms of production and employment, those fisheries taking place within the continental shelf and undertaking by fishing craft in single day operation was the dominant sub sector and always made the largest contribution to the national fish production.
➢ No proper communication system in these vessels ➢ FC and EW deliver to the fishermen is big challenge 28 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY - SRI LANKA Challenges and Gaps
Agriculture
Landuse Map Present ✓ Specialized Weather Forecasts for Agriculture
✓ Agricultural Weather Forecast/Alert
Expected Agrometeological forecast need be improved ➢ Forecasting for Agricultural parameters - growth & development of Crop, yield, optimum sowing rate, etc.. ➢ Application of climatological parameters 29 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY - SRI LANKA Challenges and Gaps
Transportation
Accidents reported in the southern Chart expressway Title during 2012 to 2016
Due to adverse weather 18%
other 82%
Impact-based weather forecast for transportations is growing demand Source : Sri Lanka Road Development Authority 30 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY - SRI LANKA Challenges and Gaps
Aviation
Met-Briefing system need be upgrade as a Statistics of the Aircraft operation in last decade web-based system with latest technology International Airport - Katunayake • To meet growing demand of operations
• To provide timely updating (latest available) met briefing information/documents
• To respond effectively and efficiently by aviation met-briefing service interaction with the users.
Source : Civil Aviation Authority – Sri Lanka 31 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY - SRI LANKA Challenges and Gaps
Power and Energy
2018 (Jan-Apr)
2017
Source : Sri Lanka Electivity Board
32 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka 2016 DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY - SRI LANKA Challenges and Gaps
Water and Irrigation
Expected Present Hydromet inputs for water resources Meteorological support for flood development and water related warning and flood control disasters (Flood and Drought) operation - Hydroment forecast (QPF) Seasonal forecast for water/irrigation management
Probabilistic rainfall forecast
33 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY - SRI LANKA Challenges and Gaps
Integrated Forecasting System Output from different meteorological Data Collection, Quality Control observation systems, numerical and Archival system weather products, satellite imagery Meteorological/climatological and forecast tools are analyzed processing and archival system separately in arriving at the weather based on personal computer forecast. environment is based on WMO Accuracy of the forecast can be supported CLICOM and CLIMSOFT improved by developing an integrated database management systems. forecasting system
Public Weather Service User Services for Major sectors Public Weather Service is to Quality of meteorological data and strengthen the capacity and skill to forecast is crucial to ensure the safety meet the needs of the users through of flights. delivery of comprehensive weather services. To enhance the services provided to aviation sector a pilot briefing system Necessary to establish a public with direct web based access is weather service system capable of required to be installed at Katunayake delivering the user required services. International Airport
34 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY - SRI LANKA Challenges and Gaps
Satellite and Communication Revolution
Technology Development Curve
Gap Growth Growth Rate Growth line for SL
Time
After Internet Before Satellite Era Source : Research division Department of Meteorology – Sri Lanka 35 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY - SRI LANKA Challenges and Gaps
High-Tec computer power
Gap
We need to fill this gap for some extent
36 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY - SRI LANKA Hydromet Modernization Plan
The expected output of the project :
Increase of the range and quality of services and products delivered to the end-users including meteorological and climatological early warning systems and tailored services at the national, regional and provincial levels.
37 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY - SRI LANKA Hydromet Modernization Plan
Upgrade Observation network
•Automatic Weather Stations network •GPS Radio Sounding •Hydrogen Generators •Lightning detection and tracking System •Lightning Data Processing system
Communication Systems
•GTS/WIS Telecommunication System •Data Collection System
Data/Information QC and Archival
Integrated Forecasting and PWS/EWS System
•Forecaster Workstations •Web-based Forecaster Workstations •Pilot Met Briefing Systems
SCOPE SCOPE OF THE PROJECT •Climate Database Management system •PWS and Early Warning System •Weather System for TV
Numerical Weather Prediction
•NWP Atmosphere and Ocean models •NWP Laboratory
Capacity building and infrastructure development 38 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY - SRI LANKA Hydromet Modernization Investments
Two Doppler Radars will be granted by JICA
due to start in 2018
due to complete in 2021 39 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY - SRI LANKA Hydromet Modernization Investments
Two Doppler Radars will be granted by JICA
Specification
Antenna •Type: Horn feed parabolic antenna •Antenna gain: 45dB or more without Radome •Polarization: Linear, Dual Polarization (horizontal and vertical)
Transmitter •Transmitting frequency: 5,860MHz (+5MHz) •Transmitting power: 5kw peak or higher (each for horizontal and vertical) •Power amplifier: Full solid-state type
40 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY - SRI LANKA Hydromet Modernization Investments
Automated rain gauge project 400 automated rain gauges expect to install cover by whole island
100 rain gauges are now installing covering by major river basins
41 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY - SRI LANKA Hydromet Modernization Investments
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
WRFDA ( 5X5 km)
Horizontal Vertical Initial/BD Forecast length Model Resolution levels conditions 0000z 0600z 1200z 1800z
4 days 2 days 9 days 1 day WRF 3.8.1 5/15 km 42 GFS 0.5 Full (99h) (81h) (240h) (33h)
4 days 2 days 9 days 1 day WRF 3.9.1 3/9 km 50 GFS 0.25 (99h) (81h) (240h) (33h) 42 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY - SRI LANKA Hydromet Modernization Investments
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
43 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY - SRI LANKA Hydromet Modernization Investments
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) ECMWF data and products –Non commercial agreement from 1st July 2017
44 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka SUMMARY
Strengthening hydro-meteorological services and enhances the provision of essential weather, climate and water related information and services to the community at large and to key economic sectors following key areas need to be consider in department of meteorology, Sri Lanka. ✓ Restructuring of institutional arrangement
✓ Enhance of : ❑ Data observation network ❑ Communication network ❑ Weather Forecasting system ❑ Early Warning system
✓ Allocation of recurrent from national budget ( is a challenge )
✓ Capacity development for meet the requirements of future demand
✓ Strengthen the research capacity
45 Weather and Climate Services in Sri Lanka Thank You
M. M.P. Mendis Deputy Director Department of Meteorology Sri Lanka
Email: merilmdi@yahoo,com Tp: +94 11 2682661/+94 71 644 2801