2017 Perspectives on Climate-Related Scenarios
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PERSPECTIVES ON CLIMATE-RELATED SCENARIOS RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES OCTOBER 2017 TABLE OF CONTENTS 3 Letter from the Chairman and CEO Glossary of Terms 4 About MPC Barrel: 42 U.S. gallons – a common volume measure for crude oil and petroleum products 6 Introduction bpcd: barrels per calendar day – the average of how 7 MPC Governance and Risk Management much crude oil or other feedstock a refinery processes over a period of time, divided by the number of days in that period, typically 365 days (a common rate 9 Energy Demand Under the Climate-Related Scenarios measure for petroleum refineries) The Climate-Related Scenarios Summary of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities bpd: barrels per day – a common rate measure for crude oil and petroleum products Results of Climate-Related Scenario Analyses Refining and Marketing CAFE Standard: Corporate Average Fuel Economy Speedway standard for vehicle fleets mandated by the U.S. Midstream federal government DOE: The U.S. Department of Energy 20 Performance Metrics and Energy Efficiency Energy Efficiency EII®: Energy Intensity Index, a measure proprietary to GHG Emission Reductions energy consulting firm HSB Solomon Associates LLC 26 Physical Risks to Our Facilities ENERGY STAR: A program of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recognizing energy efficiency. To Hardening and Modernizing: Steps We Have Taken achieve this status, applicants must perform in the top Resiliency Measures: Emergency Preparedness & Response quartile for energy efficiency and have no unresolved environmental compliance actions from state or federal 30 Conclusions regulators. EPA: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ERM: Enterprise Risk Management G20: An international forum for the governments and central bank governors from 20 of the world's largest economies GHGs: Greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane IEA: International Energy Agency LNG: Liquefied natural gas Metric ton: 2,205 pounds MPC: Marathon Petroleum Corporation NGL: Natural gas liquid – a light hydrocarbon liquid often produced with natural gas OECD: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development – a group of the world’s most industrialized nations TCFD: Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures, formed by the Financial Stability Board (an international body that monitors and makes ON THE COVER: recommendations about the global financial system) MPC's refinery in Garyville, Louisiana PERSPECTIVES ON CLIMATE-RELATED SCENARIOS | RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES 2 FROM THE CHAIRMAN AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER Fellow shareholders, As investors who care about environmental stewardship and the welfare of future generations, we can be proud to own Marathon Petroleum Corporation stock. MPC manufactures, transports and markets fuels and other products that make millions of people’s lives better every day, and we project continued robust demand for our products well into the future. Your board of directors and executive leadership team have positioned MPC well by investing billions of dollars in energy efficiency, emissions reductions, diversifying our business and hardening our facilities against extreme weather events. In short, for many years we have taken seriously the physical and transitional risks now associated with climate change. Our refineries are among the most energy efficient in the nation. Our facilities have earned more of the U.S. EPA’s ENERGY STAR awards recognizing refineries than all other refining companies combined. We also apply this focus on energy efficiency to our transport trucks and our inland marine fleet, as well as through our research collaboration with the U.S. Department of Energy’s Argonne National Laboratory. I invite you to read this detailed look at the board oversight, scenario analyses, asset optimization, We are diversified through our general partner stake in portfolio management and other tools we use to MPLX LP, a midstream master limited partnership that is mitigate risks inherent in a future characterized by one of the largest natural gas gathering and processing potential climate impacts and policies designed to companies in the U.S. This has positioned us to meet the address climate change. While we focus on providing ongoing and projected demand for natural gas long into you the returns you expect on your investment, we the future. also look to safeguard the long-term success of your company, understanding that the products we produce Our diversification also extends to the transportation will continue to be a critical component of modern life fuels we offer our customers. We have equity interests for the foreseeable future. in three corn ethanol plants in the Midwest and we own a biodiesel production facility in Cincinnati, Ohio. Sincerely, Through our Speedway retail business, we offer ethanol flex fuel at hundreds of our stores, amounting to more than 11 percent of the total number of stations offering this fuel nationwide. Gary R. Heminger Chairman and Chief Executive Officer PERSPECTIVES ON CLIMATE-RELATED SCENARIOS | RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES 3 Marketing Area MPC Refineries Light Product Terminals MPC Owned and Part-owned Third Party Asphalt/Heavy Oil Terminals MPC Owned Third Party Water Supplied Terminals Coastal Inland Pipelines MPC Owned & Operated MPC Interest: Operated by MPC MPC Interest: Operated by Others Pipelines Used by MPC Renewable Fuels Ethanol Facility Biodiesel Facility ® As of September 2017 MPLX Terminals: MPLX Pipelines: Owned and Part-owned Owned & Operated Tank Farms MPLX Interest Pipelines: Operated by Others Barge Dock Cavern MarkWest Complex PERSPECTIVES ON CLIMATE-RELATED SCENARIOS | RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES 4 ABOUT MPC MPC is the nation’s third-largest refiner, with a total crude oil refining capacity of 1.8 million barrels per calendar day (bpcd) as of year-end 2016. Approximately, 60 percent of this capacity is located in the Gulf Coast region, with the remainder located in the Midwest. Marathon brand gasoline is sold through approximately 5,600 independently owned retail outlets across 19 states. In addition, Speedway LLC, an MPC subsidiary, owns and operates the nation’s second-largest convenience store chain, Marketing Area with approximately 2,730 convenience stores in 21 states. MPC owns, leases or has ownership MPC Refineries interests in approximately 10,800 miles of crude oil Light Product Terminals and light-product pipelines. MPC owns the general partner of MPLX LP, a midstream master limited MPC Owned and Part-owned partnership. Through MPLX, MPC has ownership Third Party interests in gathering and processing facilities Asphalt/Heavy Oil Terminals with approximately 5.6 billion cubic feet per day MPC Owned of gathering capacity, 8 billion cubic feet per day Third Party of natural gas processing capacity and 570,000 barrels per day (bpd) of fractionation capacity. Water Supplied Terminals MPC’s fully integrated system provides operational Coastal flexibility to move crude oil, natural gas liquids Inland (NGLs), feedstocks and petroleum-related products Pipelines efficiently through the company’s distribution MPC Owned & Operated network and midstream service businesses in the Midwest, Northeast, East Coast, Southeast and Gulf MPC Interest: Operated by MPC Coast regions. MPC Interest: Operated by Others Pipelines Used by MPC Renewable Fuels Ethanol Facility Biodiesel Facility ® MPLX Terminals: MPLX Pipelines: Owned and Part-owned Owned & Operated Tank Farms MPLX Interest Pipelines: Operated by Others Barge Dock Cavern MarkWest Complex PERSPECTIVES ON CLIMATE-RELATED SCENARIOS | RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES 5 INTRODUCTION In June 2017, the Financial Stability Board’s Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) issued its final recommendations on reporting climate-related financial information. These recommendations have been endorsed by a majority of the G20 countries and over 100 large businesses. MPC has incorporated these recommendations as a means to further enhance our reporting on climate-related risks and opportunities. We believe the disclosures made in our Annual Report on Form 10-K, our annual Citizenship Report and this report are aligned with the main principles outlined in the recommendations of the TCFD and demonstrate MPC’s resilience to potential climate-related risks. With this report, we have enhanced our disclosures respecting our governance, risk management, strategy and metrics related to the subject of climate change. We are also including the results of a stress-test of our business against the International Energy Agency’s (IEA's) hypothetical 450 Scenario and New Policies Scenario. These scenarios conclude oil and natural gas will continue to play a significant, long-term role in meeting the world’s energy needs. Oil and natural gas will also continue to provide the building blocks for the commercial products that are common in everyday life. As you will see in the “Results of Climate-Related Scenario Analyses” section of this report, MPC is well-positioned to remain a successful company into the future, even under the carbon-constrained future modeled in the IEA’s hypothetical 450 Scenario. We believe MPC’s current governance and risk-management processes sufficiently address both potential physical risks and transitional risks associated with a carbon-constrained future. At MPC, we implement cost-effective technologies to improve the energy efficiency of our operations and capital projects. As you will see in this report, our results are significant and quantifiable. We are committed to implementing