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Medium Term Expenditure Framework 2021-2023

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Republika e Kosovës Republika Kosova- Republic of Kosovo Qeveria- Vlada- Government Ministria e Financave Ministarstvo za Finansije Ministry of Finance Medium Term Expenditure Framework 2021-2023 September 2020 1 List of Abreviations VET Vocational Education and Training KPCVA Kosovo Property Comparison and Verification Agency PAK Privatisation Agency of Kosovo KPA Kosovo Property Agency EARK Employment Agency of the Republic of Kosovo KAS Kosovo Agency of Statistics TAK Tax Administration of Kosovo GNIA Gross National Income Available WB World Bank EU European Union EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development GDP Gross Domestic Product CBK Central Bank of Kosovo ERS Energy Renewable Sources ERA European Reform Agenda EUROPOL European Union Agency for Law Enforcement Cooperation KAF Kosovo Armed Forces IMF International Monetary Fund KSF Kosovo Security Force HEIs Higher Education Institutions CPI Consumer Price Index IFACCA International Federation of Arts Councils and Culture Agencies IFIs International Financial Institutions FDIs Foreign Direct Investments INTERPOL International Police Organization IPA Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance NBIHS Non-beneficiary Institutions for Household Services MTEF Medium Term Expenditures Framework KfW Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau ODC Other Depositing Corporations LLGF Law on Local Governance Finance LPFMA Law on Public Financial Management and Accountability MEST Ministry of Education, Science and Technology MoF Ministry of Finance MKSF Ministry of Kosovo Security Force MLSW Ministry of Labour and Social Welfare SAA Stabilisation and Association Agreement MoH Ministry of Health NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization PE Public Enterprises SMEs Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises NERP National Economic Reform Programme NPISAA National Program for Implementation of Stabilisation and Association Agreement ERP Economic Reform Programme SSSR Strategic Security Sector Review RTK Radio Television of Kosovo 2 HIS Health Information System NDS National Development Strategy EMIS Education Management Information System CMIS Case Management Information System HUCSK Hospital and University Clinic Services of Kosovo IT Information Technology ICT Information and Communication Technology VAT Value Added Tax UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation USAID United States Agency for International Development WEO World Economic Outlook 3 Table of Contents 1. DECLARATION OF MEDIUM-TERM PRIORITIES OF THE GOVERNMENT ............................. 7 LABOUR MARKET AND EMPLOYMENT ........................................................................................................ 16 SECOND PART .................................................................................................................................................. 21 1. MACRO-FISCAL FRAMEWORK .................................................................................................... 21 2.1. MACRO-ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK......................................................................................................... 21 2.1.1 EXTERNAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT ................................................................................... 21 2.1.2. LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN THE KOSOVO ECONOMY .......................................................... 24 Information Box 1. Comparing macroeconomic forecasts used for previous MTEFs with actuals .................. 27 2.1.3. MACROECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE 2021-2023 ............................................................................ 29 Information Box 2 . Comparison of macroeconomic forecast for MTEF 2021-2023 with other institutions... 31 2.2. FISCAL FRAMEWORK 2021-2023 .................................................................................................. 32 2.2.1. GOVERNMENT REVENUES AND EXPENDITURE ..................................................................... 32 2.2.1.1. REVENUES AND EXPENDITURE IN 2020 ................................................................................... 32 2.2.1.2. REVENUE PROJECTIONS 2021-2023 ............................................................................................ 33 Information Box 3. Comparison of projections and actuals for year 2019........................................................ 34 2.2.1.3. EXPENDITURE PROJECTIONS 2021-2023 ................................................................................... 35 2.2.2. BUDGET DEFICIT AND THE FISCAL RULE ............................................................................... 37 Information Box 4. Main deviations between MTEFs 2021-2023 and 2020-2022 for 2021 and 2022 ............... 37 2.2.2.1. THE LEVEL OF STATE DEBT, DEVELOPMENTS AND PERSPECTIVES FOR THE UPCOMING YEARS ........................................................................................................................................... 38 2.3. MEDIUM-TERM RISKS 2021-2023 ................................................................................................. 42 THIRD PART ...................................................................................................................................................... 48 3. SECTORIAL EXPENDITURES FRAMEWORK 2021-2023 – CENTRAL GOVERNMENT ........... 48 PART FOUR ....................................................................................................................................................... 67 4. MUNICIPAL LEVEL ....................................................................................................................... 67 4.1. General Grant .............................................................................................................................................. 67 4.2. Additional grant for the financing of the Capital City ......................................................................... 71 4.3. Specific grant for pre-university education .......................................................................................... 71 4.4. Primary health specific grant ............................................................................................................... 74 4.5. Secondary health financing .................................................................................................................. 75 4.6. Residential services financing ............................................................................................................... 75 4 4.7. Funding for the Historic Center of Prizren, the Cultural Center of the village of Zym and the Council of the Hoçë e Madhe ........................................................................................................................................... 75 4.8. Financing for the endangered environmental area of Obiliq ............................................................... 76 4.9. Financing for Theatre ........................................................................................................................... 76 4.10. Projections of Municipal Own Source Revenues for 2021 and forecasts 2022-2023............................ 76 4.11. Investment clause .................................................................................................................................. 78 4.12. Sumamry of municipal funding for 2021-2023 ..................................................................................... 78 ANNEX 1 ............................................................................................................................................................ 79 ANNEX 2 ............................................................................................................................................................ 88 Table 1 Prices in international markets ...................................................................................... 23 Table 2 General Debt ................................................................................................................ 38 Table 3 International Debt including undisbursed debt as of sipas 31.07.2020 ........................... 39 Table 4 Sensitivity analysis of the budget to fluctuations of macroeconomic variables for the three-year period 2021-2023 ..................................................................................................... 44 Table 5 Outstanding liabilities ................................................................................................... 46 Table 6 Payments based on court decisions (mln Eur) ............................................................... 47 Table 7 Determining the value of the General Grant for municipalities 2021-2023 (mil. Euro) .. 68 Table 8 General Grant Structure for 2021-2023 according to LFPL (mil. Euro) ......................... 69 Table 9 Distribution of General Grant at municipalities 2021-2023 .......... Error! Bookmark not defined. Table 10 Distribution of additional Grant for financing the Capital 2021-2023 .......................... 71 Table 11 Distribution of Specific Grant for Education for the year 2021-2023 .......................... 73 Table 12 Primary health specific grant, for 2021-2023 .............................................................. 74 Table 13 Financing for residential services for 2021-2023 ......................................................... 75 Table 14 Financing for theatres for 2021 ................................................................................... 76 Table 15 Projections of municipal
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