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Polymetallic Nodule Valuation Report

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Polymetallic Nodule Valuation Report Polymetallic nodule valuation A report for the International Seabed Authority CRU Consulting CRU Reference: C -07177 This report is supplied on a private and confidential basis to the customer. It must not be disclosed in whole or in part, directly or indirectly or in any other format to any other company, organisation or individual without the prior written permission of CRU International Limited. Permission is given for the disclosure of this report to a company’s majority owned subsidiaries and its parent organisation. However, where the report is supplied to a client in his capacity as a manager of a joint venture or partnership, it may not be disclosed to the other participants without further permission. CRU International Limited’s responsibility is solely to its direct client. Its liability is limited to the amount of the fees actually paid for the professional services involved in preparing this report. We accept no liability to third parties, howsoever arising. Although reasonable care and diligence has been used in the preparation of this report, we do not guarantee the accuracy of any data, assumptions, forecasts or other forward-looking statements. Copyright CRU International Limited 2019. All rights reserved. CRU Consulting, Chancery House, 53-64 Chancery Lane, London, WC2A 1QS, UK Tel: +44 (0)20 7903 2000, Fax: +44 (0)20 7903 2172, Website: www.crugroup.com 16 October 2020 Page i Table of Contents 1. Executive summary .............................................................................................................. 1 2. Introduction and scope of this report ............................................................................... 14 2.1. Background ..................................................................................................... 14 2.2. Methodology ................................................................................................... 15 3. An introduction to fair value pricing ................................................................................. 18 3.1. The concept of fair market value ..................................................................... 18 3.2. Bargaining zone .............................................................................................. 20 3.3. Transfer pricing in the MIT royalty and valuation model ................................. 21 4. A framework for finding comparable materials ............................................................... 23 4.1. Nodule metal content and gross value ............................................................ 23 4.2. Describing the analysis process ..................................................................... 24 4.3. Seabed nodules value chain and products ..................................................... 25 4.4. Seabed nodules comparative framework ........................................................ 26 5. Comparable materials pricing and value .......................................................................... 31 5.1. Metal-containing material pricing theory ......................................................... 31 6. Copper ................................................................................................................................. 32 6.1. Copper concentrates ....................................................................................... 32 6.2. Copper cathode .............................................................................................. 36 6.3. Value add analysis .......................................................................................... 37 6.4. Takeaways from copper analysis .................................................................... 40 7. Nickel ................................................................................................................................... 41 7.1. Value chain overview ...................................................................................... 41 7.2. Reference prices ............................................................................................. 41 7.3. Nickel laterite ore ............................................................................................ 43 7.4. Nickel-cobalt intermediates ............................................................................. 49 7.5. Nickel sulphide concentrates .......................................................................... 52 7.6. Takeaways from nickel analysis ..................................................................... 55 8. Manganese .......................................................................................................................... 56 8.1. Value chain overview ...................................................................................... 56 8.2. Manganese ore ............................................................................................... 59 8.3. Value add ........................................................................................................ 61 8.4. Downstream manganese products ................................................................. 62 8.5. Value basis for land-based royalties ............................................................... 64 8.6. Takeaways from manganese analysis ............................................................ 65 16 October 2020 Page ii 9. Cobalt ................................................................................................................................... 67 9.1. Reference prices ............................................................................................. 67 9.2. Cobalt-containing concentrates ...................................................................... 69 9.3. Cobalt hydroxide ............................................................................................. 70 9.4. Takeaways from cobalt analysis ..................................................................... 71 10. Pricing and value summary ............................................................................................... 71 11. Conclusions & recommendations ..................................................................................... 74 A note on optimality ....................................................................................................... 84 Index of Tables Table 1 Typical recoverable metal content in polymetallic nodules and other unfinished materials ................... 5 Table 2 Breakdown of gross value of nodule by metal, based on annual average prices 2000-2020................. 23 Table 3 Typical recoverable metal content in polymetallic nodules and other unfinished materials ................. 27 Table 4 Key jurisdictions for comparable materials ............................................................................................... 30 Table 5 Cobalt raw material pricing basis ................................................................................................................ 70 Table 6 Summary of pricing basis for key non-finished materials ........................................................................ 71 Index of Figures Figure 1 Gross value of nodule metal content based on historical prices, real 2019 $/tonne nodule .................. 1 Figure 2 Schematic of theoretical valuation bases ................................................................................................... 4 Figure 3 Typical attribution of price across mine and processor (% of finished product price) .......................... 7 Figure 4 Mine shares of combined mine and processor costs and margins ......................................................... 8 Figure 5 Indicative historical nodule values ($/t nodule, real US$2020 terms) ................................................. 11 Figure 6 Royalty rates needed to obtain equivalent payments under different value bases .............................. 11 Figure 7 Illustrative seabed mining supply chain ................................................................................................... 16 Figure 8 Price transparency of materials through seabed mining supply chain .................................................. 16 Figure 9 Schematic of theoretical valuation bases ................................................................................................. 22 Figure 10 Gross value of nodule metal content based on historical prices, real 2019 $/tonne nodule .............. 24 Figure 11 Analysis process ....................................................................................................................................... 25 Figure 12 Illustrative value chain diagram ............................................................................................................... 26 Figure 13 Global copper mine production by type (m tonnes contained Cu) ....................................................... 32 Figure 14 Copper concentrate annual spot TC/RCs; ¢/lb Cu ................................................................................. 34 Figure 15 Realised price for a 25% copper concentrate as a % of LME, quarterly .............................................. 35 Figure 16 Copper cathodes average premiums over LME $/t (LHS) ...................................................................... 36 Figure 17 Breakdown of copper value attribution between mine and processor, 2019 average ........................ 38 Figure 18 Nickel ore types and finished products .................................................................................................
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