Institut Européen Des Hautes Études Internationales "Quoi, Des Cohortes
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Centre International de Formation Européenne Institut Européen des Hautes Études Internationales "Quoi, des cohortes étrangères, feraient la loi dans nos foyers..." About French Perceptions, Facts and Backgrounds around th May 29 2005 Bernhard METZ Diplôme des Hautes Études Européennes et Internationales Année 2005/2006 Directeurs de Recherche : Hartmut MARHOLD Ragnar LEUNIG I. Table of Contents I I. Table of Contents I. Table of Contents......................................................................................I II. List of Illustrations................................................................................. III III. List of Abbreviations............................................................................. VI PREFACE ..................................................................................................... 1 1. INTRODUCTION................................................................................... 10 1.1 May 29th 2005, its Prelude and its Aftermath ................................... 11 1.2 Analysis of the Result ...................................................................... 15 2. EURO-SCEPTISISM.............................................................................. 22 2.1 Oblivion of Europe’s Achievements ................................................ 22 2.2 Europe’s Image Problems................................................................. 25 2.2.1 Democratic Deficit.................................................................. 27 2.2.2 Lack of Transparency.............................................................. 30 2.2.3 Scapegoat Europe.................................................................... 35 3. PUBLIC PERCEPTION ......................................................................... 40 3.1 “Déclinologisme” or “France’s Malheur”......................................... 40 3.2 Interest, Ignorance and Irrationality.................................................. 46 3.3 Factoids and systematic Propaganda................................................. 51 4. “MONDIALISATION” AND “NEO-LIBERALISME”........................ 57 4.1 Class Struggle à la Attac ................................................................... 57 4.1.1 The “Modèle Social Français” ................................................ 60 4.1.2 Necessity for Reforms............................................................. 66 4.1.3 Social Protest à la Française.................................................... 72 4.2 “Libéralisme” à la Europe................................................................. 77 4.3 The European Union within Globalisation ....................................... 79 I. Table of Contents II 4.4 France’s Position within the Internal Market ................................... 83 5. PERIL FROM ABROAD ....................................................................... 86 5.1 Enlargement Fatigue ......................................................................... 86 5.1.1 Financial Burden..................................................................... 90 5.1.2 The “Plombier Polonais” ........................................................ 96 5.1.3 “Délocalisations” .................................................................. 103 5.2 The virtual economic Challenge in the East ................................... 111 5.3 Turkey, the “Tête de Turc”............................................................. 116 5.4 The “Grande Nation” in the European Melting-Pot ....................... 122 6. CONCLUSION AND COMMENT...................................................... 129 IV. Appendix 1: Selected Posters of the 8 leading Parties ....................... IX V. Appendix 2: Interview with Bruno Boissière .................................. XIII VI. Appendix 3: Interview with Matthias Wächter .............................XVIII VII. Appendix 4: Interview with Ferdinand Kinsky ............................ XXIX VIII. List of References .......................................................................XXXII II. List of Illustrations III II. List of Illustrations Table 1: Approval and Rejection of the Idea of an EU Constitution in the EU25 in June 2003...............................................................................11 Table 2: The Result of the Plebiscite on the Ratification of the Treaty establishing a Constitution for Europe on May 29th 2005 ...................13 Table 3: 2004Analysis of the Voting Behaviour according to individual Characteristics ....................................................................................15 Table 4: Outcome of the French regional Elections in March...........................17 Table 5: The declared Motivations for the Approval of the European Constitutional Treaty ...........................................................................18 Table 6: The declared Motivations for the Rejection of the European Constitutional Treaty ...........................................................................19 Table 7: The Impact of the Age Structure on the Outcome of the Referendum on May 29th 2005 ............................................................24 Table 8: Effective Inflation (CPI) in the EU15 from 1991 to 2003...................36 Table 9: Confidence towards certain political and civil Institutions in France and the EU15 in 2001 and 2005...............................................41 Table 10: Politicians benefiting from the Refusal of the Constitutional Treaty, in the Eyes of the French.........................................................55 Table 11: Development of average yearly Working Hours in the most important Western industrial States.....................................................62 Table 12: Comparison of weekly Working Hours in France and selected EU Member States...............................................................................62 Table 13: Relative Expenditure for the Social Security Systems in the EU15 in 2000.......................................................................................63 Table 14: Comparison of the average ROI in %, made by US companies in selected EU15 Member States and Switzerland between 1995 and 2002...............................................................................................64 Table 15: Valuation of the economic Policy and need for Reform of 21 selected States according to Bertelsmann............................................67 II. List of Illustrations IV Table 16: Comparison of the Public Deficit in relation to GDP in the EU15 in 2002 .................................................................................................68 Table 17: French Public Dept in 2003 compared to the EU15, the Rest of the OECD, the EU Entrants in 2004 and the Accession Candidates............................................................................................69 Table 18: French Unemployment Rates of 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005, compared to certain OECD Countries .................................................70 Table 19: Evolution of Wealth in the EU15 between 1989 and 1999 .................71 Table 20: Evolution of the Popularity of Jacques Chirac and Jean-Pierre Raffarin since 2004..............................................................................74 Table 21: Evolution of Surveys concerning the Plebiscite on the European Constitutional Treaty in France ...........................................................75 Table 22: Population of the World’s largest Markets..........................................80 Table 23: The Evolution of World Trade since 1973 ..........................................81 Table 24: The Share of the EU15 in the World Service and Product Markets in 2001 ...................................................................................82 Table 25: French total Exports in billion US $, compared to the world’s Export Leaders in 2003........................................................................83 Table 26: The most important French Export Markets in 2004...........................84 Table 27: FDI Stocks in the principal industrial States in 1990 & 2002 and its Relation to the Countries’ GDP ......................................................85 Table 28: Support and Refusal of an EU Enlargement among the EU15 Population in Autumn 2001.................................................................88 Table 29: Fears in the Eyes of the EU15 Population connected to the potential EU Enlargements in 1999.....................................................89 Table 30: French overall Wealth measured in Terms of GDP per Capita in Comparison with the EU25 Average in 2004......................................91 Table 31: Comparison of Wealth between the EU15, the Entrants and Turkey in 2004.....................................................................................92 Table 32: Agricultural Employment in France, the Eastern European Entrants and Turkey in 2000................................................................94 II. List of Illustrations V Table 33: Immigrant Streams in Thousand to the EU and their Origins from 1990 to 2000 ........................................................................................97 Table 34: Average hourly Cost of Payroll for Production Workers in Manufacturing, in the new Eastern EU Member States compared to the EU15 Average in 2004 ............................................................104 Table 35: French Corporation Tax Rate compared to the EU25 and the USA ...................................................................................................105