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COVID-19 Active Response and Expenditure Support Program: Report and Recommendation of the President

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COVID-19 Active Response and Expenditure Support Program: Report and Recommendation of the President Report and Recommendation of the President to the Board of Directors Project Number: 54255-001 August 2020 Proposed Countercyclical Support Facility Loan Republic of the Union of Myanmar: COVID-19 Active Response and Expenditure Support Program Distribution of this document is restricted until it has been approved by the Board of Directors. Following such approval, ADB will disclose the document to the public in accordance with ADB's Access to Information Policy. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (as of 3 August 2020) Currency unit – kyat/s (MK) MK1.00 = $0.00073 $1.00 = MK1,363.69 ABBREVIATIONS ADB – Asian Development Bank CARES – COVID-19 Active Response and Expenditure Support CBM – Central Bank of Myanmar CERP – COVID-19 Economic Relief Plan COVID-19 – coronavirus disease CPRO – COVID-19 pandemic response option GDP – gross domestic product HSCP – Health Sector Contingency Plan IMF – International Monetary Fund MOHS – Ministry of Health and Sports MOPFI – Ministry of Planning, Finance and Industry MSMEs – micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises OP – operational priority PFM – public financial management PRC – People’s Republic of China TWG – technical working group WHO – World Health Organization NOTES (i) The fiscal year (FY) of the Government of Myanmar ends on 30 September. “FY” before a calendar year denotes the year in which the fiscal year ends, e.g., FY2020 ends on 30 September 2020. (ii) In this report, “$” refers to United States dollars. Vice-President Ahmed M. Saeed, Operations 2 Director General Ramesh Subramaniam, Southeast Asia Department (SERD) Directors Jose Antonio Tan III, Public Management, Financial Sector and Trade Division (SEPF), SERD Ayako Inagaki, Human and Social Development Division (SEHS), SERD Newin Sinsiri, Myanmar Resident Mission (MYRM), SERD Team leaders Aekapol Chongvilaivan, Economist (Public Finance), SEPF, SERD Kyaw Thu, Infrastructure Specialist, MYRM, SERD Ye Xu, Health Specialist, SEHS, SERD Team members Zehra Abbas, Principal Environment Specialist, Safeguards Division (SDSS), Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department (SDCC) Lara Arjan, Urban Development Specialist, Urban Sector Group, Sector Advisory Service Cluster, SDCC Thwet Thwet Aye, Project Officer, MYRM, SERD Eduardo Banzon, Principal Health Specialist, Health Sector Group, Sector Advisory Service Cluster, SDCC Gambhir Bhatta, Chief of Knowledge Advisory Services Center, SDCC Elizabeth Burges-Sims, Senior Social Development Specialist (Gender Development), SEHS, SERD Arup Kumar Chatterjee, Principal Financial Sector Specialist, Finance Sector Group, Sector Advisory Service Cluster (SDSC-FIN), SDCC Lisette Cipriano, Senior Digital Technology Specialist (Financial Technology Services), SDSC-FIN, SDCC Haidy Ear-Dupuy, Senior Social Development Specialist (Core Labor Standards), SDSS, SDCC Madhumita Gupta, Principal Social Development Specialist (Safeguards), SDSS, SDCC Wunna Htay, Project Officer (Social Sector), MYRM, SERD Zaw Myo Htet, Programs Officer, MYRM, SERD Yukiko Ito, Senior Social Development Specialist, Social Development Thematic Group, Thematic Advisory Service Cluster, SDCC Chitoshi Izumi, Senior Procurement Specialist, Procurement Division 2, Procurement, Portfolio and Financial Management Department Michiko Katagami, Principal Natural Resources and Agriculture Specialist, Rural Development and Food Security (Agriculture) Thematic Group, SDCC Eve Cherry Lynn, Economics Officer, MYRM, SERD Jenelyn A. Mendez-Santos, Project Analyst, SEPF, SERD Go Nagata, Public Management Specialist (Taxation), Governance Thematic Group, Thematic Advisory Service Cluster (SDTC-GOV), SDCC Kaukab Naqvi, Senior Economist, Economic Analysis and Operational Support Division, Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department Ashish Narain, Principal Economist (Regional Cooperation), Regional Cooperation and Integration Thematic Group, Thematic Advisory Service Cluster, SDCC Team members Anne Michelle Mendoza, Senior Financial Management Officer, SEPF, SERD Sann Oo, External Relations Officer, MYRM, SERD Hyun Chol Park, Senior Financial Control Specialist, Loan and Grant Disbursement Section, Controller’s Department Daniele Quaggiotto, Counsel, Office of the General Counsel Lindsay Marie Renaud, Results Management Specialist, Results Management and Aid Effectiveness Division, Strategy, Policy and Partnerships Department Joehanne Kristal M. Santos, Operations Assistant, SEPF, SERD Stephen Schuster, Principal Financial Sector Specialist, SEPF, SERD Malika Shagazatova, Social Development Specialist (Gender and Development), Gender Equity Thematic Group, Thematic Advisory Service Cluster, SDCC Christopher A. Spohr, Principal Portfolio Management Specialist, MYRM, SERD Yasushi Suzuki, Public Management Specialist (Taxation), SDTC-GOV, SDCC Nan K. Syne, Safeguards Officer, MYRM, SERD Elaine Thomas, Senior Social Development Specialist (Civil Society and Participation), NGO and Civil Society Center, SDCC Samuel Tumiwa, Advisor, Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations, Office of the Cluster Head, Thematic Advisory Service Cluster, SDCC Peer reviewer Ananya Basu, Principal Economist, Social Sectors and Public Sector Management Division, Pacific Department In preparing any country program or strategy, financing any project, or by making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area in this document, the Asian Development Bank does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area. CONTENTS Page PROGRAM AT A GLANCE I. THE PROPOSAL 1 II. PROGRAM AND RATIONALE 3 A. Background and Development Constraints 3 B. Proposed Program, Impacts, and ADB’s Value Addition 8 C. Development Financing Needs, Budget Support, and Debt Sustainability 10 D. Development Partner Coordination 11 E. Implementation Arrangements 11 III. DUE DILIGENCE 11 IV. ASSURANCES 13 V. RECOMMENDATION 13 APPENDIXES 1. Design and Monitoring Framework 14 2. List of Linked Documents 16 3. Development Policy Letter 17 4. Assessment of Compliance with Access Criteria for the Countercyclical Support Facility and COVID-19 Pandemic Response Option 22 Project Classification Information Status: Complete PROGRAM AT A GLANCE 1. Basic Data Project Number: 54255-001 Project Name COVID-19 Active Response and Department/Division SERD/SEPF Expenditure Support Program Country Republic of the Union of Myanmar Executing Agency Ministry of Planning, Borrower Republic of the Union of Myanmar Finance and Industry Country Economic Indicators https://www.adb.org/Documents/LinkedD (formerly Ministry of ocs/?id=54255-001-CEI Planning and Finance) Portfolio at a Glance https://www.adb.org/Documents/LinkedD ocs/?id=54255-001-PortAtaGlance 2. Sector Subsector(s) ADB Financing ($ million) Public sector management Public expenditure and fiscal management 100.00 Social protection initiatives 50.00 Agriculture, natural Agricultural policy, institutional and capacity development 25.00 resources and rural development Health Disease control of communicable disease 50.00 Health system development 25.00 Total 250.00 3. Operational Priorities Climate Change Information Addressing remaining poverty and reducing inequalities GHG reductions (tons per annum) 0 Accelerating progress in gender equality Climate Change impact on the Low Promoting rural development and food security Project Fostering regional cooperation and integration ADB Financing Adaptation ($ million) 0.00 Mitigation ($ million) 0.00 Cofinancing Adaptation ($ million) 0.00 Mitigation ($ million) 0.00 Sustainable Development Goals Gender Equity and Mainstreaming SDG 1.5, 1.a Effective gender mainstreaming (EGM) SDG 2.1 SDG 3.8, 3.d Poverty Targeting SDG 5.c General Intervention on Poverty SDG 8.1 SDG 10.4 4. Risk Categorization: Complex . 5. Safeguard Categorization Environment: C Involuntary Resettlement: C Indigenous Peoples: C . 6. Financing Modality and Sources Amount ($ million) ADB 250.00 Sovereign COVID19 Pandemic Response Option (Concessional Loan): 250.00 Ordinary capital resources Cofinancing 0.00 None 0.00 Counterpart 0.00 None 0.00 Total 250.00 Currency of ADB Financing: US Dollar Source: Asian Development Bank This document must only be generated in eOps. 16062020065641829425 Generated Date: 04-Aug-2020 21:33:36 PM I. THE PROPOSAL 1. I submit for your approval the following report and recommendation on a proposed loan to the Republic of the Union of Myanmar for the COVID-19 Active Response and Expenditure Support (CARES) Program under the Countercyclical Support Facility–COVID-19 pandemic response option (CPRO).1 2. The CARES Program, under the CPRO of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), will help the Government of Myanmar fund critical public expenditures to mitigate the adverse impacts of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. It will also build the foundations for the country’s economic recovery using a coordinated response led by the country, with support from its development partners. The proposed loan will provide general budgetary support for: (i) social assistance to the poor and vulnerable groups and populations at risk; (ii) a strengthened health system to prevent and control COVID-19; and (iii) micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) and workers to insulate them from the economic downturn. 3. Myanmar sustained strong growth averaging 6.4% in 2015ꟷ2019 and maintained sound macroeconomic conditions. It has also reported only a moderate number of confirmed COVID-19 cases to date. However, the country is highly vulnerable to economic shocks because
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