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FILA Holdings (081660 KS ) a Bump in the Road

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FILA Holdings (081660 KS ) a Bump in the Road FILA Holdings (081660 KS ) A bump in the road Textiles/Apparel 4Q19 preliminary earnings review: OP disappoints Company Report FILA Holdings announced its 4Q19 results after market close on February 14 th , posting February 14, 2020 consolidated revenue of W789.5bn and operating profit of W84.5bn. Operating profit was 11.7% below the recently lowered consensus. While the company only released preliminary numbers and did not provide a regional breakdown of earnings, we believe the lackluster results were mainly due to FILA USA (9.6% of consolidated net profit). (Maintain) Buy We estimate FILA USA’s dollar-based revenue plunged 27% YoY in 4Q19, weighed down by: 1) the overall weakness of the low/mid-end US sportswear market; 2) an Target Price (12M, W) 70,000 unfavorable comparison; and 3) retailers’ inventory adjustments and order cancellations. We also believe FILA USA’s 4Q19 OP margin was lower than our original Share Price (02/14/20, W) 43,500 estimate of 4.7%. As retailers’ inventory adjustments come to an end in 1Q20, the negative impact on Expected Return 61% revenue will likely subside. Still, given the sharp revenue growth of the Disruptor and other FILA models that lasted through 3Q19, we forecast FILA USA’ s 2020 revenue to contract around 20% YoY. OP (19F, Wbn) 477 Consensus OP (19F, Wbn) 484 Decreasing US exposure EPS Growth (19F, %) 88.4 In January, we slashed our 2020 revenue and operating profit forecasts for FILA USA by Market EPS Growth (19F, %) -34.9 32.3% and 65.1%, respectively, in light of the steeper-than-expected revenue decline. P/E (19F, x) 12.0 However, becaus e FILA USA accounts for only 9.6% of overall consolidated net profit, Market P/E (19F, x) 15.7 our downward revisions to FILA Holdings’ consolidated revenue and net profit KOSPI 2,243.59 forecasts were limited to just 6.3% and 6.1%, respectively. Market Cap (Wbn) 2,659 Maintain Buy and TP of W70,000 Shares Outstanding (mn) 61 Despite FILA Hol dings’ decreasing US exposure, FILA USA’s disappointing growth is Free Float (%) 79.3 likely to increase the stock’s volatility in the near term, given that US revenue growth Foreign Ownership (%) 41.1 has been a key catalyst for share prices since 2H19. Beta (12M) 0.42 52-Week Low 43,100 Still, we recommend taking advantage of any sha re price correction as a buying 52-Week High 85,800 opportunity, considering: 1) the strong growth prospects of China’s sportswear market; and 2) the company’s rapidly improving balance sheet and shareholder return policy. (%) 1M 6M 12M We maintain our Buy rating and target price of W70,000 on FILA Holdings. Absolute -9.8 -27.6 -10.4 Relative -10.0 -37.5 -11.1 220 FILA Korea KOSPI 170 120 70 2.19 6.19 10.19 2.20 Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [ Global Con sumer ] FY (Dec.) 12/16 12/17 12/18 12/19F 12/20F 12/21F Revenue (Wbn) 967 2,530 2,955 3,408 3,410 3,551 Woochang Chung +822 -3774 -6753 OP (Wbn) 12 217 357 477 467 497 [email protected] OP Margin (%) 1.2 8.6 12.1 14.0 13.7 14.0 NP (Wbn) 323 62 144 270 264 288 EPS (W) 5,684 1,030 2,349 4,425 4,328 4,716 ROE (%) 48.4 7.5 10.5 16.0 13.0 12.2 P/E (x) 2.5 15.8 22.8 12.0 10.1 9.2 P/B (x) 0.9 1.2 3.3 2.6 1.8 1.6 Dividend Yield (%) 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.6 2.7 3.7 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates February 14, 2020 FILA Holdings Table 1. 4Q19 review (K-IFRS consolidated) (Wbn, %, %p) 4Q19 F 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19P YoY (%) (Mirae Asset Diff. (%) 4Q19 (Cons.) Diff. (%) Daewoo ) Revenue 761.7 834.6 959.3 867.0 789.5 3.6 747.3 5.6 791.9 (0.3) Operating profit 82.6 115.9 144.9 124.9 84.5 2.3 91.6 (7.8) 95.7 (11.7) Net profit (0.7) 70.3 68.5 80.5 N/A N/A 51.1 N/A 57.0 N/A (controlling) OP margin (%) 10.8 13.9 15.1 14.4 10.7 (0.1) 12.3 (1.6) 12.1 (1.4) Net margin (%) (0.1) 8.4 7.1 9.3 N/A N/A 6.8 N/A 7.2 N/A Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Table 2. Annual earnings and forecasts (Wbn, %) 2017 2018 2019F 2020F Revenue 2,530.3 2,954.7 3,408.2 3,409.7 FILA Korea 342.5 499.9 599.9 647.9 FILA USA 344.5 497.9 641.9 510.7 Royalties 40.8 58.4 79.4 84.1 FILA other 35.4 100.8 171.4 205.6 Acushnet 1,767.1 1,797.6 1,915.6 1,961.4 Operating profit 217.5 357.1 477.2 466.6 FILA Korea 1.4 56.5 108.0 117.9 FILA USA 10.5 38.0 44.4 25.2 Royalties 40.8 58.4 79.4 84.1 FILA other -25.9 15.8 19.7 24.7 Acushnet 190.6 188.5 211.3 214.7 Net profit (controlling) 62.4 143.6 270.4 264.5 Pretax profit from FILA China 24.6 43.0 66.0 79.1 Management consulting fees 12.1 23.3 37.2 42.8 Equity-method gains 12.5 19.8 28.8 36.4 % of total pretax profit 23.5 18.7 18.3 22.4 Chg. (YoY) Revenue 16.8 15.4 0.0 FILA Korea 46.0 20.0 8.0 FILA USA 44.5 28.9 -20.4 Royalties 43.2 35.9 5.9 FILA other 184.4 70.0 20.0 Acushnet 1.7 6.6 2.4 Operating profit 64.2 33.6 -2.2 FILA Korea N/A 91.3 9.2 FILA USA N/A 17.0 -43.3 Royalties 43.2 35.9 5.9 FILA other N/A 24.9 25.2 Acushnet -1.1 12.1 1.6 Net profit (controlling) 130.1 88.4 -2.2 OP margin (%) Total 8.6 12.1 14.0 13.7 FILA Korea 0.4 11.3 18.0 18.2 FILA USA 3.1 7.6 6.9 4.9 Royalties 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 FILA other -72.9 15.7 11.5 12.0 Acushnet 10.8 10.5 11.0 10.9 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 February 14, 2020 FILA Holdings Table 3. Our estimates vs consensus (K-IFRS consolidated) (Wbn, %, %p) Our estimates Consensus Diff. (%) 2019F 2020F 2019F 2020F 2019F 2020F Revenue 3,408 3,410 3,453 3,590 -1.3 -5.0 Operating profit 477 467 481 513 -0.8 -9.1 Net profit (controlling) 270 264 277 300 -2.5 -11.7 OP margin (%) 14.0 13.7 13.9 14.3 0.1 -0.6 Net margin (%) 7.9 7.8 8.0 8.3 -0.1 -0.6 Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Table 4. FILA Holdings: SOTP valuation (Wbn, %) % of Value Notes total I. Korea 1,076.9 25.1 2020F net profit 107.7 Target P/E 10.0 - 10% premium to avg. P/E of major Korean listed apparel firms II. USA 275.1 6.4 2020F net profit 25.5 Target P/E 10.8 - 40% discount to avg. P/E of US general apparel/ sportswear companies III. China 1,602.7 37.3 2020F net profit 59.4 Target P/E 27.0 - Avg. P/E of major Chinese sportswear companies IV. Acushnet 1,342.0 31.2 Market cap 2,532.0 Stake 53.0 Target market cap 4,296.7 100.0 No. of shares (mn) 61.1 Target price (W) 70,000 Current price (W) 43,500 Upside (%) 61 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Table 5. Consolidated net profit breakdown (Wbn, %) 2020F % of total Net profit (controlling) 264.5 100.0 I. Korea 107.7 40.7 II. USA 25.5 9.6 Net profit 25.5 Stake (%) 100.0 III. China 59.4 22.4 1. Full Prospect 27.3 Equity-method gains 36.4 Tax rate (%) 25.0 2. Management fees (after-tax) 32.1 Management fee (pretax) 42.8 Tax rate (%) 25.0 IV. Acushnet 72.0 27.2 Net profit 135.8 Stake (%) 53.0 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3 February 14, 2020 FILA Holdings Figure 1. P/E band chart I Figure 2. P/E band chart II (x) (W"000) 22 100 18x 20 90 18 80 15x 16 +2 SD 70 12x 14 60 +1 SD 50 12 9x Avg. 10 40 8 -1 SD 30 6x 6 20 -2 SD 4 10 2 0 17 18 19 20 17 18 19 20 Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 3. EV/EBITDA band chart I Figure 4. EV/EBITDA band chart II (x) (Wbn) 14 8,000 7,000 11x 12 6,000 9.8x 10 +2 SD 8.5x +1 SD 5,000 8 7.3x Avg.
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