Staffordshire Evidence Base: Population Demographics and Adult Social Care Needs

Home , East Staffordshire, South Staffordshire, Stafford, Staffordshire Moorlands

February 2019

Contents

1 Purpose ...... 3 2 Summary of demographic characteristics ...... 3 2.1 The Area ...... 3 2.2 Ageing population ...... 5 3 What are our current and future care needs? ...... 6 3.1 Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy ...... 6 3.2 Estimated needs of care for older people in Staffordshire ...... 7 3.3 Estimated needs of care for adults aged 18-64 ...... 10 4 How care is paid for in Staffordshire: assets and payment methods ...... 11 4.1 Housing tenure ...... 11 4.2 Income and equity ...... 13 5 Where do people want to live? ...... 14 6 Summary messages ...... 16 Appendix 1: District level information ...... 17

Document details Staffordshire Evidence Base: Population Demographics and Adult Social Title Care Needs Date created February 2019 Produced by Staffordshire County Council Nicola Day Senior Commissioning Manager: Market Development and Quality Assurance Email: [email protected] Authors

Divya Patel Senior Public Health Epidemiologist Email: [email protected] This product is the property of Staffordshire County Council. If you wish to reproduce this document either in whole, or in part, please acknowledge the source and the author(s).

Copyright and Staffordshire County Council, while believing the information in this disclaimer publication to be correct, does not guarantee its accuracy nor does the County Council accept any liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage or other consequences, however arising from the use of such information supplied.

Demographics and Adult Social Care Needs Page 2 1 Purpose The purpose of this document is to provide information on the evidence Staffordshire County Council currently holds on the current and future care needs of people in Staffordshire as a whole in relation to adult social care needs. Other evidence documents are available to accompany specific commissioning areas to include details of current and future requirements and gaps and what is currently being commissioned by the Council across different environments (e.g. extra care, home care and care homes) as well as service types (e.g. day services, community equipment services, reablement and mental health and learning disability services).

Please note that this document also sits alongside existing Market Position Statements for All Age Disability and Mental Health customers.

2 Summary of demographic characteristics

2.1 The Area In terms of its resident population, Staffordshire contains circa 870,800 residents in 369,000 households (2017 estimates), with a population density of 332 persons per square kilometre. Table 1 summarises the resident population characteristics at district local authority level.

Table 1: Resident population characteristics by district, 2017 Resident Number of Population density (number Area (km2) population households of persons per km2) Cannock Chase 99,126 42,238 79 1,257 East Staffordshire 117,552 49,194 387 304 Lichfield 103,507 42,820 331 312 Newcastle-under-Lyme 128,963 55,051 211 611 South Staffordshire 111,890 46,320 407 275 Stafford 134,764 58,065 598 225 Staffordshire Moorlands 98,496 43,033 576 171 Tamworth 76,527 32,261 31 2,481 Staffordshire 870,825 368,982 2,620 332 West Midlands 5,860,706 2,382,322 12,998 451 England 55,619,430 23,053,707 130,278 427 Source: 2017 mid-year population estimates, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright and 2016-based household projections, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright

Around one in five of Staffordshire residents are aged 65 or above (21%) with 9% aged 75 and over; both proportions being higher than the England average (Table 2).

Demographics and Adult Social Care Needs Page 3 Overall there is little ethnic diversity across Staffordshire with the population being predominantly White British. Data from the 2011 Census suggests that local concentrations of minority ethnic population are mainly within Burton in East Staffordshire, with the single largest minority group in these areas being Pakistani.

Table 2: Summary of population age-structure characteristics, 2017 Old age Minority Resident Aged Aged Aged 75 dependency ethnic groups population 18-64 65-74 and over ratio (2011) Cannock Chase 99,126 61.1% 10.7% 8.1% 29.7 3.5% East Staffordshire 117,552 59.4% 10.5% 8.5% 30.7 13.8% Lichfield 103,507 57.4% 13.2% 10.3% 39.5 5.4% Newcastle-under-Lyme 128,963 61.4% 11.1% 9.1% 31.8 6.7% South Staffordshire 111,890 58.5% 13.0% 10.9% 39.5 5.4% Stafford 134,764 58.9% 12.3% 9.8% 36.1 7.4% Staffordshire Moorlands 98,496 57.1% 13.9% 10.6% 41.3 2.5% Tamworth 76,527 60.0% 10.9% 7.4% 29.3 5.0% Staffordshire 870,825 59.3% 12.0% 9.4% 34.7 6.4% West Midlands 5,860,706 59.8% 10.0% 8.4% 29.6 20.8% England 55,619,430 60.6% 9.9% 8.2% 28.7 20.2% Source: 2017 mid-year population estimates, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright and 2011 Census, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright and

Staffordshire is a largely rural area which is relatively affluent but with a few notable pockets of high deprivation. Based on the 2015 Index of Multiple Deprivation, 49 of Staffordshire’s 528 lower super output areas (LSOAs) fall within the top 20% most deprived nationally making up 9% of its population (equating to 80,500 people) as shown in Table 3.

Some of the remote rural areas in Staffordshire have issues with hidden deprivation and in particular around access to services; in fact, the increase in the ageing population in Staffordshire is thought to be the single most significant factor in the increasing prevalence of rural isolation.

Table 3: Summary of key demographic characteristics in Staffordshire Proportion of Proportion of people Lone pensioner Households people living in living in deprived households without a rurality (2017) areas (IMD 2015) (2011) car (2011) Cannock Chase 9.1% 13.8% 11.4% 20.2% East Staffordshire 21.7% 18.2% 12.4% 21.4% Lichfield 29.8% 3.9% 12.2% 13.6% Newcastle-under-Lyme 20% 11.5% 13.5% 22.1% South Staffordshire 40.1% 1.4% 13.3% 13.2% Stafford 32.4% 5.3% 12.8% 17.5% Staffordshire Moorlands 30.5% 4.7% 13.5% 14.8% Tamworth 0.0% 17.5% 10.9% 20.6% Staffordshire 24.2% 9.3% 12.6% 18.0% West Midlands 14.7% 29.8% 12.6% 24.7% England 17.0% 20.4% 12.4% 25.8% Source: Indices of Deprivation 2015, Department for Communities and Local Government, 2017 mid-year population estimates, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright, The Rural and Urban Classification 2011, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright and 2011 Census, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright

Demographics and Adult Social Care Needs Page 4 2.2 Ageing population One of the key drivers of housing and adult social care needs within any given area is population change. A major characteristic of Staffordshire like many other county areas is its ageing population. Staffordshire’s population continues to grow in both size and average age and by 2039 the population will have increased to 905,100. Staffordshire’s older population is predicted to grow faster than the general population: by 2039 the number of residents aged 75 and over, traditionally people who need the most support will rise more dramatically from 88,200 in 2019 to 139,500 in 2039, an increase of 58% or around 51,300 people (Table 4). Population growth in this age group is predicted to be the highest of all age groups across Staffordshire with growth anticipated to be higher than the Staffordshire average in Tamworth, East Staffordshire and Cannock Chase whilst in terms of absolute numbers growth highest in Stafford and South Staffordshire (Appendix 1).

Over the same period both the number of children and young people under 18 and the number of adults aged 18-64 in Staffordshire are projected to fall slightly.

Table 4: Population projection trends in Staffordshire Percentage change 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2019-2039 Under 18 169,100 170,500 167,200 163,800 163,000 -3.6% 18-49 328,800 318,100 323,300 325,300 324,200 -1.4% 50-64 183,000 187,900 174,900 163,700 160,200 -12.5% 65-74 104,000 100,600 109,100 119,600 118,200 13.7% 75 and over 88,200 106,900 117,900 126,600 139,500 58.1% All ages 873,000 883,900 892,400 899,000 905,100 3.7% 18-64 511,800 506,000 498,200 488,900 484,400 -5.4% 65 and over 192,100 207,400 227,000 246,200 257,600 34.1% Note: Numbers and percentages may not add up due to rounding Source: 2016-based population projections, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright

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Figure 1: Population projection trends in Staffordshire

Source: 2016-based population projections, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright

3 What are our current and future care needs?

3.1 Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy Overall health across Staffordshire is improving with life expectancy at birth continuing to increase. Men and women in Staffordshire live on average for 80 years and 83 years respectively. Men and women in Cannock Chase have shorter life expectancy at birth by 10-11 months whilst women in East Staffordshire and Newcastle can also expect to live 11 and nine months respectively less than the national average.

Overall there is a five-year difference between the average life expectancy of a man in Cannock Chase, compared to a woman in South Staffordshire. Furthermore, men and women living in the most deprived areas of Staffordshire live seven to eight years less than those living in less deprived areas.

Advances in care also mean that people are living longer with diseases. A key measure of the quality of life years is healthy life expectancy (HLE). HLE in Staffordshire is 63 years for men and 64 years for women; this means that men spend 16 years of life in poor health, while women spend 19 years in poor health (Figure 2). There is also a marked gap in HLE with men and women living in the most deprived areas of Staffordshire having a HLE which is 12 years shorter than those living in the less deprived areas of Staffordshire.

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Figure 2: Healthy life expectancy at birth, 2015-2017

Source: Office for National Statistics

3.2 Estimated needs of care for older people in Staffordshire

• Around 54% people aged 65 and over in Staffordshire are thought to have a limiting long-term illness. Between 2019 and 2039, this is projected to increase to 58% equating to 44,400 additional people. In terms of absolute numbers, Newcastle, Stafford and South Staffordshire currently have the highest number of individuals with limiting long-term illness and are predicted to continue to do so over the next 20 years; this is primarily due to them having the largest numbers of people aged 65 and over within their populations.

• Around 33% of older people are unable to manage at last one self-care activity on their own which is projected to increase to 36% or 29,000 additional people by 2039. In addition to this, around 40% of older people are unable to manage at least one domestic task independently. Between 2019 and 2039 this is expected to increase to 44% equating to 35,400 additional people. In terms of absolute numbers individuals with either of these characteristics are currently the highest in Stafford, South Staffordshire and Newcastle.

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• National research indicates that around seven in ten people aged 65 and over who are admitted to hospital due to a hip fracture require post support and care. In Staffordshire around 50,500 people aged 65 and over are thought to have fallen at least once in the last 12 months which is predicted to increase by 42% to 71,600 people by 2039. In terms of hospital admissions there is anticipated there will be a 50% growth from 4,000 in 2019 to 6,000 in 2039. In terms of absolute numbers of individuals who are predicted to fall are currently and will remain the highest in Stafford, South Staffordshire and Newcastle.

• Whilst these areas rank in the bottom three in terms of absolute numbers, East Staffordshire, Cannock Chase and Tamworth are projected to see more rapid increases in their numbers of people having these characteristics over the next 10-20 years. This is due to their older populations aged 65 and over increasing faster than other areas over this time period.

Dementia Assuming that the prevalence of dementia remains the same, the ageing population means that the total number of people aged 65 and over with dementia in Staffordshire is projected to rise from around 11,900 in 2019 to 15,600 in 2029; an increase of 32% and to 19,500 by 2039; an increase of 64%. As illustrated in Figure 3 there are projected to be large increases in the number of people with dementia aged 80 and over between 2019 and 2039. This reflects the fact that the number of Staffordshire residents in this cohort over this period will also increase rapidly. In terms of numbers Stafford, South Staffordshire and Newcastle have the highest number of residents aged 65 and over with dementia. However, by 2039, the districts with the highest number of people with dementia will see Lichfield replace Newcastle due to the rapid growth of projected people with dementia expected within this area.

The latest research estimates suggest that almost two in five people (38.7%) with late- onset dementia live in care homes with the remaining living in the community.1

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Figure 3: Projected number of people with dementia in Staffordshire by age group

Figure 4: Projected number of people with dementia in Staffordshire by severity

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Table 5 provides a summary of estimated needs for Staffordshire’s older residents.

Table 5: Projected number of older people and need in Staffordshire Percentage 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 change 2019-2039 Population aged 65 and over 192,100 207,400 227,000 246,200 257,600 34% Limiting long-term illness 104,200 115,500 128,000 139,900 148,700 43% Unable to manage at least one 63,100 70,300 78,400 86,400 92,000 self-care activity on their own 46% Unable to manage at least one 77,200 86,200 95,900 105,500 112,600 domestic task on their own 46% Number of falls in last year 50,500 55,400 61,800 67,900 71,600 42% Number of hospital admissions 4,000 4,600 5,100 5,500 6,000 due to falls 50% Dementia 11,900 13,600 15,600 17,700 19,500 64% Note: Numbers and percentages may not add up due to rounding Source: Projecting Older People Population Information (POPPI), Dementia UK: update, © Alzheimer’s Society 2014. All rights reserved and 2016-based population projections, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright

3.3 Estimated needs of care for adults aged 18-64 Some adults with learning disabilities, mental health or physical disabilities also require support and care with small numbers anticipated to require residential care. Based on 2016-based population projections, the number of Staffordshire residents aged 18 to 64 will fall by around 5% between 2019 and 2039. During this period in Staffordshire:

• the number of people aged 18 and over with a moderate or severe learning disability (who are therefore likely to require care) is estimated to remain at around 3,400 • the number of people aged 18-64 with a mental health condition is estimated to fall slightly from 96,400 people in 2019 to 91,300 in 2039 • the number of people aged 18-64 estimated to have a moderate or serious physical disability is estimated to also fall from 55,100 people in 2019 to 50,800 in 2039 (Table 6)

At a district level, Newcastle, East Staffordshire and Stafford are the only areas that are projected to see increase in numbers of adults with learning disabilities with these anticipated to be modest (between 1-5%; circa 5-30 people at a district level). Newcastle will also see a modest growth (2%) in the number of people aged 18-64 with mental health.

Carers Based on the 2011 Census around 12% of Staffordshire residents provide unpaid care with around 22% of people aged 50-64 providing care; the number of carers are estimated to rise from 100,200 in 2019 to 105,500 in 2039 with the number of carers set to increase most rapidly in people aged 65 and over.

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Table 6: Projected number of adults aged 18-64 and need in Staffordshire Percentage 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 change 2019-2039 Population aged 18-64 511,800 506,000 498,200 488,900 484,400 -5% Learning disability 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,400 0% (18 and over) Mental health 96,400 95,200 93,800 92,200 91,300 -5% Moderate disability 42,300 42,300 41,400 39,700 39,100 -8% Severe disability 12,800 13,000 12,800 12,100 11,700 -8% Carers (18 and over) 101,200 103,600 104,400 105,000 105,500 4% Source: Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information (PANSI), Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey 2014 (APMS 2014), NHS Digital, Copyright © 2016, Health and Social Care Information Centre. NHS Digital is the trading name of the Health and Social Care Information Centre, 2011 Census, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright and 2016-based population projections, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright

4 How care is paid for in Staffordshire: assets and payment methods

4.1 Housing tenure The number of households in Staffordshire has grown by over 8% from 328,200 in 2001 to 355,300 in 2011. The growth is mainly seen in the privately rented housing sector which has increased from 25,800 to 40,100 households (Table 7). Locality data for 2011 is shown in Table 13, Appendix 2.

Table 7: Housing tenure, 2001 and 2011 All Owner occupied Privately rented Socially rented Rent free Year households households households households households Staffordshire 251,600 25,800 50,800 2001 328,200 n/a (77%) (8%) (15%) 258,700 40,100 52,200 4,300 2011 355,300 (73%) (11%) (15%) (1%) England 14,054,100 2,456,600 3,940,700 2001 20,451,400 n/a (69%) (12%) (19%) 14,148,800 3,715,900 3,903,600 295,100 2011 22,063,400 (64%) (17%) (18%) (1%) Note: Numbers and percentages may not add up due to rounding Source: 2001 and 2011 Census, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright

Around 73% of Staffordshire’s population live in owner-occupied households (owned outright or with a mortgage). As expected, this increases with age with over four in five people aged 50 and over living in owner occupied households (83%). However, older people aged 80 and over and lone pensioners have higher than average proportions living in socially rented accommodation (Figure 5 and Figure 6). This may partially be due to their inability to live independently in houses that are not age- friendly or their financial inability to maintain larger homes.

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Figure 5: Housing tenure by age group in Staffordshire, 2011

Source: 2011 Census, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright

Figure 6: Housing tenure by household composition in Staffordshire, 2011

Source: 2011 Census, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright

Demographics and Adult Social Care Needs Page 12 In terms of occupancy, over three in four households in Staffordshire have at least one spare bedroom equating to 270,700 households. Possible reasons could include children moving out of the family home or considerations of having children when moving into a house.

Owner-occupied households have more spare bedrooms whilst rented housing includes a slightly higher proportion of overcrowded households (i.e. having fewer bedrooms than the recommended standard) (Table 8). Children and young people are also more likely to live in overcrowded households whilst older people live in larger emptier homes.

Table 8: Occupancy by tenure and age in Staffordshire, 2011 Under-occupied Under-occupied Overcrowded (two or more spare (one spare Standard (at least one less bedrooms) bedroom) bedroom) Proportion of households All tenures 40.7% 35.5% 21.3% 2.5% Owned occupied 50.2% 35.8% 12.6% 1.4% Privately rented or 20.2% 41.1% 34.5% 4.2% living rent free Socially rented 11.1% 29.2% 53.6% 6.1% Proportion of population All ages 34.5% 36.1% 24.8% 4.6% 0-15 17.5% 37.8% 36.5% 8.2% 16-49 25.2% 39.1% 29.9% 5.8% 50-64 52.0% 31.4% 14.5% 2.0% 65 and over 54.2% 32.4% 12.5% 0.9% Note: Numbers and percentages may not add up due to rounding Source: 2011 Census, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright

4.2 Income and equity The amount of income and equity an individual has impacts on the housing choices available to them. People who do not have enough income to buy a home will rely on social or private rented housing to meet their needs with large proportions of people in socially rented accommodation also likely to be eligible for housing benefits.

Overall in Staffordshire around 11% of households are thought to be on a low-income; around 13% of older people aged 60 and over are also thought to be living in low income households. Tamworth and Cannock Chase have higher proportions of older people living in low income households (both 18%) compared to the England average (16%). These people are likely to have no assets and be reliant on benefits (including the state pension for older people) for income.

Demographics and Adult Social Care Needs Page 13 Housing affordability is a measure that assesses what proportion of income is spent on housing costs. A number of measures are available to assess housing affordability in Staffordshire:

• The average (median) house price for England overall in March 2018 was £235,000.2 For Staffordshire, the average house price during this period was £180,000 which whilst lower than the national average, is double the value observed 15 years ago in March 2003 (£90,000).

• The ratio of median house prices to median annual salary helps illustrate relative affordability of owner-occupied housing. In 2017, the ratio in Staffordshire was 6.3 which is lower than the ratio of 7.9 across England. For lower earners, the lowest quartile house price in Staffordshire was 6.5 times the lowest quartile income and again lower than the England average of 7.3.

• Monthly private sector rents in 2016 range from around £495 in Staffordshire Moorlands to £635 in Lichfield and makes up around 22%-30% of median gross monthly salaries in Staffordshire.

• The average weekly social housing rent for private registered providers across the County in 2016 varied from £79 in Newcastle to £92 in Cannock Chase. Due to lower rental costs, low earning workers are likely to be more inclined to live in socially rented accommodation, as gross weekly salary in the lowest 10% decile varying from £272 Staffordshire Moorlands to £297 in Stafford. Even in these circumstances, around one-third of gross weekly salary (ranging from 28%-33% in Staffordshire districts) are housing costs (Note: this excludes any additional household income from benefits and pensions).

5 Where do people want to live? In 2005 the Commission for Social Care Inspection (CSCI) carried out a MORI survey of preferences for social care when older. People were asked about the care options they would choose if they needed care and support in looking after themselves (when older, if not already). This analysis was used to inform the 2006 Wanless Review, Securing Good Care for Older People.3

As shown in Table 9, the majority would like to stay in their own home with informal or formal support.

2 Office for National Statistics (2018) 3 Wanless D (2006). Securing Good Care for Older People: Taking a long-term view. King’s Fund

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Table 9: Preferences for receiving social care (n = 1,049) Percentage Stay in my own home with care and support from friends and family 62% Stay in my own home but with care and support from trained care workers 56% Move to a smaller home of my own 35% Move to sheltered housing with a warden 27% Move to sheltered housing with a warden and other social care services 25% such as hairdressing and organised social outings Move in with my son or daughter 14% Move to a private residential home 11% Move to a local council residential home 7% Move to a residential home provided by a charitable organisation 3% Don’t know 2% None 1% Note: Respondents were allowed to give more than one option Source: Mori Survey 2005 for Commission for Social Care Inspection

In a survey of 382 heads of households aged 50 and over involved in the 2012 Public Attitudes Survey published by the Housing Executive (noting that extra care housing was not specifically identified as an option in this report) identified the following:4

• 71% of respondents who believed their current accommodation would continue to meet their needs in the longer term rented from a Housing Association. In comparison, 64% of owner-occupiers thought their current accommodation would continue to meet their needs, as did 60% of Housing Executive tenants and 54% of private renters.

• 56% of respondents who said they had not considered their long-term accommodation needs could not give a reason why. They simply had not thought about it. More than one-quarter (26%) said it was because they were still in good health and 13% considered themselves still too young to think about their accommodation needs in the longer term.

• 21% of respondents said their current accommodation would not meet their needs as they aged. Ground floor accommodation or bungalow was identified by one-third of respondents in this survey as the accommodation respondents felt was most likely to meet their needs. Downsizing was the next most popular option (selected by 16% of respondents).

• Moving distance was also considered to be very important in shaping decisions made, whereby respondents stated a preference to move only within a three- mile radius of where they currently live.

4 Housing Executive (2013). Research on the future housing aspirations of older people.

Demographics and Adult Social Care Needs Page 15 6 Summary messages

• Like many County areas, Staffordshire is facing the challenges of an ageing population particularly in the older populations, with significant increases in people aged 75 and over between now and 2039.

• Healthy life expectancy in Staffordshire is around 65 years meaning men spend 16 years and women 19 years in poor health; this continues to put pressure on our health and care services.

• Increases in life expectancy have also meant there are continually more people in older age groups living with more complex needs (e.g. dementia) and increased numbers of people who are unable to self-care or undertake personal and domestic tasks required for daily living. Locally we are expecting little growth in residents aged 18-64 who require care and support.

• Overall Staffordshire has higher than national average concentrations of older people; higher owner occupation; higher prevalence of under-occupation; higher proportions of lone pensioners and carers in some areas; higher levels of disability and individuals living in poor health in some areas. There is also evidence of higher levels of deprivation in some areas and; a paucity of locally available social accommodation in some localities. National research suggests that most people would like to stay in their own home with informal or formal support.

Demographics and Adult Social Care Needs Page 16 Appendix 1: District level information

Table 10: Population projections by district Percentage change 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2019-2039 Cannock Chase Under 18 19,700 19,400 18,600 18,000 17,800 -9.9% 18-49 39,100 37,400 37,700 37,400 36,900 -5.7% 50-64 20,700 21,500 19,900 18,500 18,000 -13.2% 65-74 10,700 10,500 11,600 13,000 13,000 22.3% 75 and over 8,700 10,500 11,800 12,800 14,300 64.9% All ages 98,900 99,400 99,600 99,800 100,000 1.1% 18-64 59,800 58,900 57,600 55,900 54,900 -8.3% 65 and over 19,300 21,100 23,400 25,900 27,400 41.4% East Staffordshire Under 18 25,800 26,300 25,900 25,300 25,100 -2.7% 18-49 45,300 44,000 44,600 44,700 44,600 -1.6% 50-64 24,300 25,000 23,500 22,500 22,200 -8.7% 65-74 12,400 12,700 14,300 15,800 15,600 26.4% 75 and over 10,500 12,500 13,900 15,400 17,500 65.6% All ages 118,400 120,500 122,300 123,700 125,000 5.6% 18-64 69,600 69,100 68,100 67,200 66,800 -4.1% 65 and over 22,900 25,200 28,200 31,200 33,100 44.5% Lichfield Under 18 19,700 19,700 19,200 18,800 18,600 -5.4% 18-49 36,600 35,300 35,500 35,600 35,500 -3.1% 50-64 22,000 22,800 21,700 20,300 19,900 -9.7% 65-74 13,400 12,400 13,400 14,900 14,900 10.9% 75 and over 11,800 14,600 15,900 16,700 18,300 55.0% All ages 103,500 104,800 105,700 106,400 107,200 3.5% 18-64 58,600 58,100 57,200 56,000 55,400 -5.6% 65 and over 25,200 27,000 29,300 31,600 33,100 31.5% Newcastle-under-Lyme Under 18 23,900 24,400 24,500 24,400 24,600 3.0% 18-49 54,200 54,300 56,300 57,700 58,100 7.3% 50-64 25,300 25,700 23,900 22,700 22,700 -10.1% 65-74 14,500 14,000 15,100 16,200 15,800 9.2% 75 and over 12,200 14,500 15,900 17,000 18,700 53.2% All ages 130,100 132,900 135,700 138,100 140,000 7.6% 18-64 79,500 80,000 80,200 80,400 80,900 1.8% 65 and over 26,700 28,500 31,000 33,300 34,500 29.3% South Staffordshire Under 18 19,800 20,300 20,300 19,900 19,800 0.1% 18-49 39,000 37,500 38,100 38,500 38,300 -1.9% 50-64 25,200 25,400 23,200 21,600 21,300 -15.4% 65-74 14,600 14,200 15,500 16,800 16,300 12.0% 75 and over 13,300 15,900 17,500 18,700 20,600 55.5% All ages 111,800 113,300 114,500 115,500 116,300 4.0% 18-64 64,200 62,900 61,300 60,000 59,600 -7.2% 65 and over 27,900 30,100 32,900 35,500 37,000 32.7% Stafford Under 18 25,500 26,000 25,500 25,000 24,900 -2.2% 18-49 50,600 48,900 49,900 50,400 50,300 -0.5% 50-64 28,400 29,200 27,000 25,200 24,500 -13.6% 65-74 16,300 15,700 17,200 18,800 18,500 13.3% 75 and over 14,200 17,200 18,900 20,200 22,200 56.2% All ages 134,900 137,000 138,400 139,500 140,400 4.1% 18-64 78,900 78,100 76,900 75,600 74,800 -5.2% 65 and over 30,500 32,900 36,000 39,000 40,700 33.3%

Demographics and Adult Social Care Needs Page 17 Percentage change 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2019-2039 Staffordshire Moorlands Under 18 18,100 18,200 17,800 17,500 17,500 -3.3% 18-49 33,400 31,800 32,300 32,400 32,300 -3.2% 50-64 22,200 22,900 21,200 19,300 18,500 -16.8% 65-74 13,700 12,800 13,700 15,000 14,800 8.4% 75 and over 11,200 13,700 15,000 15,900 17,300 54.4% All ages 98,600 99,400 99,900 100,200 100,400 1.9% 18-64 55,600 54,700 53,400 51,700 50,800 -8.6% 65 and over 24,900 26,500 28,700 30,900 32,100 29.1% Tamworth Under 18 16,600 16,300 15,500 14,900 14,600 -11.6% 18-49 30,600 28,900 28,900 28,600 28,200 -7.8% 50-64 15,000 15,400 14,400 13,600 13,100 -12.3% 65-74 8,400 8,200 8,400 9,000 9,100 8.3% 75 and over 6,300 8,000 9,100 9,800 10,600 68.5% All ages 76,800 76,600 76,300 75,900 75,700 -1.5% 18-64 45,600 44,300 43,300 42,200 41,300 -9.3% 65 and over 14,700 16,100 17,500 18,800 19,700 34.0% Staffordshire Under 18 169,100 170,500 167,200 163,800 163,000 -3.6% 18-49 328,800 318,100 323,300 325,300 324,200 -1.4% 50-64 183,000 187,900 174,900 163,700 160,200 -12.5% 65-74 104,000 100,600 109,100 119,600 118,200 13.7% 75 and over 88,200 106,900 117,900 126,600 139,500 58.1% All ages 873,000 883,900 892,400 899,000 905,100 3.7% 18-64 511,800 506,000 498,200 488,900 484,400 -5.4% 65 and over 192,100 207,400 227,000 246,200 257,600 34.1% Note: Numbers and percentages may not add up due to rounding Source: 2016-based population projections, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright

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Table 11: Projected number of older people and predicted need Percentage 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 change 2019-2039 Limiting long-term illness Cannock Chase 12,100 13,400 15,000 16,600 17,800 48% East Staffordshire 12,100 13,400 15,200 16,900 18,300 52% Lichfield 12,900 14,400 15,900 17,300 18,300 42% Newcastle-under-Lyme 15,500 16,800 18,500 20,100 21,100 36% South Staffordshire 14,500 16,100 17,900 19,400 20,600 42% Stafford 15,300 17,000 18,900 20,600 21,800 43% Staffordshire Moorlands 13,600 14,900 16,300 17,800 18,700 38% Tamworth 8,400 9,400 10,400 11,400 12,000 44% Staffordshire 104,200 115,500 128,000 139,900 148,700 43% Unable to manage at least one self-care activity on their own Cannock Chase 6,300 7,100 8,000 8,900 9,600 53% East Staffordshire 7,600 8,400 9,500 10,700 11,600 53% Lichfield 8,300 9,300 10,400 11,300 12,000 45% Newcastle-under-Lyme 8,800 9,600 10,600 11,600 12,300 39% South Staffordshire 9,300 10,400 11,600 12,700 13,500 45% Stafford 10,000 11,200 12,500 13,700 14,500 45% Staffordshire Moorlands 8,100 8,900 9,900 10,800 11,400 41% Tamworth 4,700 5,300 6,000 6,600 7,100 51% Staffordshire 63,100 70,300 78,400 86,400 92,000 46% Unable to manage at least one domestic task on their own Cannock Chase 7,700 8,700 9,800 10,900 11,800 53% East Staffordshire 9,200 10,300 11,600 13,000 14,200 53% Lichfield 10,200 11,500 12,700 13,800 14,700 45% Newcastle-under-Lyme 10,800 11,800 13,000 14,200 15,100 40% South Staffordshire 11,300 12,700 14,200 15,500 16,400 45% Stafford 12,300 13,700 15,300 16,700 17,800 45% Staffordshire Moorlands 9,900 10,900 12,100 13,200 14,000 41% Tamworth 5,700 6,600 7,400 8,100 8,600 51% Staffordshire 77,200 86,200 95,900 105,500 112,600 46% Admissions from falls Cannock Chase 400 500 500 600 600 57% East Staffordshire 500 500 600 700 800 58% Lichfield 500 600 700 700 800 47% Newcastle-under-Lyme 600 600 700 700 800 45% South Staffordshire 600 700 800 800 900 48% Stafford 600 700 800 900 1,000 48% Staffordshire Moorlands 500 600 600 700 700 45% Tamworth 300 400 400 400 500 56% Staffordshire 4,000 4,600 5,100 5,500 6,000 50% Dementia Cannock Chase 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 70% East Staffordshire 1,400 1,600 1,900 2,100 2,400 68% Lichfield 1,600 1,800 2,100 2,400 2,600 68% Newcastle-under-Lyme 1,700 1,900 2,100 2,300 2,600 54% South Staffordshire 1,800 2,100 2,400 2,700 2,900 65% Stafford 1,900 2,200 2,500 2,800 3,100 62% Staffordshire Moorlands 1,500 1,700 2,000 2,200 2,400 60% Tamworth 900 1,000 1,200 1,300 1,500 75% Staffordshire 11,900 13,600 15,600 17,700 19,500 64% Note: Numbers and percentages may not add up due to rounding Source: Projecting Older People Population Information (POPPI), Dementia UK: update, © Alzheimer’s Society 2014. All rights reserved and 2016-based population projections, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright

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Table 12: Projected number of adults aged 18-64 by need Percentage 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 change 2019-2039 Learning disability (18 and over) Cannock Chase 400 400 400 400 400 -2% East Staffordshire 400 500 500 500 500 2% Lichfield 400 400 400 400 400 0% Newcastle-under-Lyme 500 500 500 500 500 5% South Staffordshire 400 400 400 400 400 -1% Stafford 500 500 500 500 500 1% Staffordshire Moorlands 400 400 400 400 400 -2% Tamworth 300 300 300 300 300 -4% Staffordshire 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,400 3,400 0% Mental health Cannock Chase 11,300 11,100 10,800 10,500 10,400 -8% East Staffordshire 13,100 13,000 12,800 12,700 12,600 -4% Lichfield 11,000 10,900 10,800 10,500 10,400 -6% Newcastle-under-Lyme 15,000 15,100 15,100 15,200 15,300 2% South Staffordshire 12,100 11,800 11,500 11,300 11,200 -7% Stafford 14,900 14,700 14,500 14,200 14,100 -5% Staffordshire Moorlands 10,500 10,300 10,000 9,700 9,600 -9% Tamworth 8,600 8,300 8,200 8,000 7,800 -9% Staffordshire 96,400 95,200 93,800 92,200 91,300 -5% Moderate disability Cannock Chase 4,900 4,900 4,800 4,500 4,400 -9% East Staffordshire 5,700 5,700 5,700 5,500 5,400 -5% Lichfield 5,000 5,000 4,900 4,700 4,600 -7% Newcastle-under-Lyme 6,200 6,300 6,200 6,100 6,100 -2% South Staffordshire 5,500 5,500 5,300 5,000 5,000 -10% Stafford 6,500 6,500 6,400 6,100 6,000 -8% Staffordshire Moorlands 4,800 4,800 4,700 4,400 4,300 -11% Tamworth 3,700 3,600 3,500 3,400 3,300 -10% Staffordshire 42,300 42,300 41,400 39,700 39,100 -8% Severe disability Cannock Chase 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,400 1,300 -10% East Staffordshire 1,700 1,800 1,700 1,700 1,600 -6% Lichfield 1,500 1,600 1,500 1,500 1,400 -7% Newcastle-under-Lyme 1,800 1,900 1,900 1,800 1,800 -4% South Staffordshire 1,700 1,700 1,700 1,600 1,500 -11% Stafford 2,000 2,000 2,000 1,900 1,800 -9% Staffordshire Moorlands 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,400 1,300 -12% Tamworth 1,100 1,100 1,100 1,000 1,000 -11% Staffordshire 12,800 13,000 12,800 12,100 11,700 -8% Carers aged 18 and over Cannock Chase 12,100 12,400 12,500 12,500 12,600 4% East Staffordshire 11,900 12,200 12,400 12,600 12,700 7% Lichfield 12,000 12,300 12,500 12,600 12,700 6% Newcastle-under-Lyme 15,100 15,500 15,700 15,900 16,100 7% South Staffordshire 13,900 14,200 14,300 14,300 14,400 3% Stafford 15,500 15,900 15,900 16,000 16,000 4% Staffordshire Moorlands 12,600 12,800 12,800 12,700 12,700 1% Tamworth 8,100 8,200 8,300 8,300 8,200 2% Staffordshire 101,200 103,600 104,400 105,000 105,500 4% Note: Numbers and percentages may not add up due to rounding Source: Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information (PANSI), Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey 2014 (APMS 2014), NHS Digital, Copyright © 2016, Health and Social Care Information Centre. NHS Digital is the trading name of the Health and Social Care Information Centre, 2011 Census, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright and 2016-based population projections, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright

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Table 13: Housing tenure by district, 2011 All Owner occupied Privately rented Socially rented Rent free

households households households households households 28,400 4,900 6,900 500 Cannock Chase 40,700 (70%) (12%) (17%) (1%) 33,100 7,200 6,400 600 East Staffordshire 47,300 (70%) (15%) (13%) (1%) 31,400 3,900 5,400 400 Lichfield 41,200 (76%) (10%) (13%) (1%) 36,600 5,500 9,800 700 Newcastle-under-Lyme 52,600 (70%) (10%) (19%) (1%) 33,900 3,800 6,200 600 South Staffordshire 44,500 (76%) (8%) (14%) (1%) 40,200 7,200 7,600 700 Stafford 55,700 (72%) (13%) (14%) (1%) 33,400 4,100 3,700 600 Staffordshire Moorlands 41,800 (80%) (10%) (9%) (1%) 21,700 3,500 6,100 300 Tamworth 31,600 (69%) (11%) (19%) (1%) 258,700 40,100 52,200 4,300 Staffordshire 355,300 (73%) (11%) (15%) (1%) 1,504,300 321,700 435,200 33,700 West Midlands 2,294,900 (66%) (14%) (19%) (1%) 14,148,800 3,715,900 3,903,600 295,100 England 22,063,400 (64%) (17%) (18%) (1%) Note: Numbers and percentages may not add up due to rounding Source: 2011 Census, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright

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