Staffordshire Evidence Base: Population Demographics and Adult Social Care Needs February 2019 Contents 1 Purpose ................................................................................................................... 3 2 Summary of demographic characteristics .............................................................. 3 2.1 The Area .......................................................................................................... 3 2.2 Ageing population ........................................................................................... 5 3 What are our current and future care needs? ....................................................... 6 3.1 Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy .................................................. 6 3.2 Estimated needs of care for older people in Staffordshire ............................. 7 3.3 Estimated needs of care for adults aged 18-64 ............................................ 10 4 How care is paid for in Staffordshire: assets and payment methods .................. 11 4.1 Housing tenure .............................................................................................. 11 4.2 Income and equity ......................................................................................... 13 5 Where do people want to live? ............................................................................ 14 6 Summary messages .............................................................................................. 16 Appendix 1: District level information ......................................................................... 17 Document details Staffordshire Evidence Base: Population Demographics and Adult Social Title Care Needs Date created February 2019 Produced by Staffordshire County Council Nicola Day Senior Commissioning Manager: Market Development and Quality Assurance Email: [email protected] Authors Divya Patel Senior Public Health Epidemiologist Email: [email protected] This product is the property of Staffordshire County Council. If you wish to reproduce this document either in whole, or in part, please acknowledge the source and the author(s). Copyright and Staffordshire County Council, while believing the information in this disclaimer publication to be correct, does not guarantee its accuracy nor does the County Council accept any liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage or other consequences, however arising from the use of such information supplied. Demographics and Adult Social Care Needs Page 2 1 Purpose The purpose of this document is to provide information on the evidence Staffordshire County Council currently holds on the current and future care needs of people in Staffordshire as a whole in relation to adult social care needs. Other evidence documents are available to accompany specific commissioning areas to include details of current and future requirements and gaps and what is currently being commissioned by the Council across different environments (e.g. extra care, home care and care homes) as well as service types (e.g. day services, community equipment services, reablement and mental health and learning disability services). Please note that this document also sits alongside existing Market Position Statements for All Age Disability and Mental Health customers. 2 Summary of demographic characteristics 2.1 The Area In terms of its resident population, Staffordshire contains circa 870,800 residents in 369,000 households (2017 estimates), with a population density of 332 persons per square kilometre. Table 1 summarises the resident population characteristics at district local authority level. Table 1: Resident population characteristics by district, 2017 Resident Number of Population density (number Area (km2) population households of persons per km2) Cannock Chase 99,126 42,238 79 1,257 East Staffordshire 117,552 49,194 387 304 Lichfield 103,507 42,820 331 312 Newcastle-under-Lyme 128,963 55,051 211 611 South Staffordshire 111,890 46,320 407 275 Stafford 134,764 58,065 598 225 Staffordshire Moorlands 98,496 43,033 576 171 Tamworth 76,527 32,261 31 2,481 Staffordshire 870,825 368,982 2,620 332 West Midlands 5,860,706 2,382,322 12,998 451 England 55,619,430 23,053,707 130,278 427 Source: 2017 mid-year population estimates, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright and 2016-based household projections, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright Around one in five of Staffordshire residents are aged 65 or above (21%) with 9% aged 75 and over; both proportions being higher than the England average (Table 2). Demographics and Adult Social Care Needs Page 3 Overall there is little ethnic diversity across Staffordshire with the population being predominantly White British. Data from the 2011 Census suggests that local concentrations of minority ethnic population are mainly within Burton in East Staffordshire, with the single largest minority group in these areas being Pakistani. Table 2: Summary of population age-structure characteristics, 2017 Old age Minority Resident Aged Aged Aged 75 dependency ethnic groups population 18-64 65-74 and over ratio (2011) Cannock Chase 99,126 61.1% 10.7% 8.1% 29.7 3.5% East Staffordshire 117,552 59.4% 10.5% 8.5% 30.7 13.8% Lichfield 103,507 57.4% 13.2% 10.3% 39.5 5.4% Newcastle-under-Lyme 128,963 61.4% 11.1% 9.1% 31.8 6.7% South Staffordshire 111,890 58.5% 13.0% 10.9% 39.5 5.4% Stafford 134,764 58.9% 12.3% 9.8% 36.1 7.4% Staffordshire Moorlands 98,496 57.1% 13.9% 10.6% 41.3 2.5% Tamworth 76,527 60.0% 10.9% 7.4% 29.3 5.0% Staffordshire 870,825 59.3% 12.0% 9.4% 34.7 6.4% West Midlands 5,860,706 59.8% 10.0% 8.4% 29.6 20.8% England 55,619,430 60.6% 9.9% 8.2% 28.7 20.2% Source: 2017 mid-year population estimates, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright and 2011 Census, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright and Staffordshire is a largely rural area which is relatively affluent but with a few notable pockets of high deprivation. Based on the 2015 Index of Multiple Deprivation, 49 of Staffordshire’s 528 lower super output areas (LSOAs) fall within the top 20% most deprived nationally making up 9% of its population (equating to 80,500 people) as shown in Table 3. Some of the remote rural areas in Staffordshire have issues with hidden deprivation and in particular around access to services; in fact, the increase in the ageing population in Staffordshire is thought to be the single most significant factor in the increasing prevalence of rural isolation. Table 3: Summary of key demographic characteristics in Staffordshire Proportion of Proportion of people Lone pensioner Households people living in living in deprived households without a rurality (2017) areas (IMD 2015) (2011) car (2011) Cannock Chase 9.1% 13.8% 11.4% 20.2% East Staffordshire 21.7% 18.2% 12.4% 21.4% Lichfield 29.8% 3.9% 12.2% 13.6% Newcastle-under-Lyme 20% 11.5% 13.5% 22.1% South Staffordshire 40.1% 1.4% 13.3% 13.2% Stafford 32.4% 5.3% 12.8% 17.5% Staffordshire Moorlands 30.5% 4.7% 13.5% 14.8% Tamworth 0.0% 17.5% 10.9% 20.6% Staffordshire 24.2% 9.3% 12.6% 18.0% West Midlands 14.7% 29.8% 12.6% 24.7% England 17.0% 20.4% 12.4% 25.8% Source: Indices of Deprivation 2015, Department for Communities and Local Government, 2017 mid-year population estimates, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright, The Rural and Urban Classification 2011, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright and 2011 Census, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright Demographics and Adult Social Care Needs Page 4 2.2 Ageing population One of the key drivers of housing and adult social care needs within any given area is population change. A major characteristic of Staffordshire like many other county areas is its ageing population. Staffordshire’s population continues to grow in both size and average age and by 2039 the population will have increased to 905,100. Staffordshire’s older population is predicted to grow faster than the general population: by 2039 the number of residents aged 75 and over, traditionally people who need the most support will rise more dramatically from 88,200 in 2019 to 139,500 in 2039, an increase of 58% or around 51,300 people (Table 4). Population growth in this age group is predicted to be the highest of all age groups across Staffordshire with growth anticipated to be higher than the Staffordshire average in Tamworth, East Staffordshire and Cannock Chase whilst in terms of absolute numbers growth highest in Stafford and South Staffordshire (Appendix 1). Over the same period both the number of children and young people under 18 and the number of adults aged 18-64 in Staffordshire are projected to fall slightly. Table 4: Population projection trends in Staffordshire Percentage change 2019 2024 2029 2034 2039 2019-2039 Under 18 169,100 170,500 167,200 163,800 163,000 -3.6% 18-49 328,800 318,100 323,300 325,300 324,200 -1.4% 50-64 183,000 187,900 174,900 163,700 160,200 -12.5% 65-74 104,000 100,600 109,100 119,600 118,200 13.7% 75 and over 88,200 106,900 117,900 126,600 139,500 58.1% All ages 873,000 883,900 892,400 899,000 905,100 3.7% 18-64 511,800 506,000 498,200 488,900 484,400 -5.4% 65 and over 192,100 207,400 227,000 246,200 257,600 34.1% Note: Numbers and percentages may not add up due to rounding Source: 2016-based population projections, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright Demographics and Adult Social Care Needs Page 5 Figure 1: Population projection trends in Staffordshire Source: 2016-based population projections, Office for National Statistics, Crown copyright 3 What are our current and future care needs? 3.1 Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy Overall health across Staffordshire is improving with life expectancy at birth continuing to increase. Men and women in Staffordshire live on average for 80 years and 83 years respectively. Men and women in Cannock Chase have shorter life expectancy at birth by 10-11 months whilst women in East Staffordshire and Newcastle can also expect to live 11 and nine months respectively less than the national average.