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1 an Interdisciplinary Scenario Study on Future Food Riots in Ethiopia

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1 an Interdisciplinary Scenario Study on Future Food Riots in Ethiopia An interdisciplinary scenario study on future Food Riots in Ethiopia Figure 1. Ethiopian food riots. Source:https://s3.amazonaws.com/assets.forward.com/images/cropped/ethiopiariots- 1475846268.jpg Krijn de Groot Linde Berbers Sarah Scholten Frida Boone Interdisciplinary project, 2018 Donya Danesh University of Amsterdam 22/12/2018 Wordcount: 8300 1 Abstract The aim of this research is to investigate the consequences of precipitation change and differences in access to knowledge concerning agricultural technology for the occurrences of food riots in the future of Ethiopia. This has been done firstly through an extended literature study composing the natural and social economic state of Ethiopia, using earth scientific, biological and social geographic questions, from which 12 trends have been identified influencing Ethiopian food riots together with two driving forces of the problem. Secondly a scenario analysis on the basis of these trends and the two driving forces has been conducted. Concluded can be that future precipitation is very unclear, and that variations precipitation either way will have a large negative consequence on Ethiopian agriculture. Also, the way technology concerning agricultural activities are spread will have a large impact on future agricultural yields and polarization within the country. 2 Table of contents Introduction p. 4 Problem definition p. 5 Selected methods and data p. 6 Theoretical framework p. 8 Interdisciplinary integration p. 19 Results p. 21 - Scenario 1 - Scenario 2 - Scenario 3 - Scenario 4 Conclusion, discussion and recommendations p. 27 Bibliography p. 28 3 Introduction In March 2008 a series of food riots occurred in Ethiopia (Berazneva et al., 2013). The riots started as a consequence of rising global food prices, prolonged drought and under- and malnourishment (hereafter: hunger) in the area (Berazneva et al., 2013). The trend of hunger in Ethiopia continued; in 2010 merely 17,7% of the Ethiopian population was food secure (Regassa et al., 2012), inducing the chance of a recurrence of the riots of 2008. To illustrate, Ethiopia is primarily an agricultural country; around 80% of the entire population lives in the rural area and still finds itself in the early stages of the demographic transition (The World Factbook, 2017). With an urbanization rate of only 4.6% per year, this is not likely to change in the near future. Also religion plays a major role in Ethiopian society; only 0.6% of the population is faithless. Ethiopia sees a rapid growing population which causes increasing pressure on the natural state of the land, land resources and land degradation, raising vulnerability of possible food shortages (The World Factbook, 2017). Even though the causes of the food riots in Ethiopia are widely investigated (Alem et al., 2014 & Berazneva et al., 2013), no interdisciplinary scenario studies have been performed. The social and academic relevance of this research is therefore to provide a new perspective on future food riots in Ethiopia. Since hunger is a continuing problem in Ethiopia (Broussard et al., 2016), interventions must be found in order to prevent another series of food riots to occur. Firstly, this research will define and justify the research objective and the research question. Also the complexity of the research problem will be contemplated, explaining why the problem of this research is complex and why an interdisciplinary approach is necessary in order to bridge the knowledge gap. Hereafter the methodology of this research will be discussed, specifying that this research is comprised in two phases. The first phase being an extensive literature study composing the natural and social economic state of Ethiopia, using earth scientific, biological and social geographical questions. From the literature study 12 common grounds have been identified as the trends underlying food riots in Ethiopia as well as two driving forces of the problem. In the second phase these trends and driving forces will be used through a scenario analysis to design four scenarios. Next the trends, relevant theories and the main concepts will be explained in the theoretical framework. Moreover, the contrasts and overlaps within these theories and the different disciplines are shown here, integrating the perspectives into one integrated framework. Subsequently the interdisciplinary integration is explained, concerning how the disciplines are integrated by reflecting upon the chosen integration technique and through a visualization of the process. The mentioned structure will produce the final results of this paper through a comprehensive scenario analysis. Since the trends, which are used to compose the scenarios, originate from different disciplines, interdisciplinary research is indispensable for answering the research question. The scenarios will help answer the overall research question: what are the consequences of precipitation change and differences 4 in access to knowledge concerning agricultural technology for the occurrences of food riots in the future of Ethiopia? Problem Definition The analyzed problem of this research is food riots in Ethiopia, and more specifically, what the consequences are of precipitation change and differences in access to knowledge concerning agricultural technology for the occurrences of food riots in the future of Ethiopia. Since the occurrence of food riots is explained by several actors (Berazneva & Lee, 2013), originating from different disciplines, complexity theory can be applied. Complexity theory is a comprehensive scientific model, which helps understanding complex problems by separating multiple interacting actors within the system (Boulton & Allen, 2007). Food riots are an example of such a complex problem. Therefore, complexity theory is indispensable for understanding relations between actors within the complex system of food riots. Moreover, complexity theory authorizes the description of multi-, inter- or transdisciplinary research (Boulton & Allen, 2007). Understanding the relations between the actors is necessary for predicting the possible future of Ethiopian food riots, as this research aims to do. Since the interaction between the actors can alter the very same actor again, predicting the future in a nonlinear system can be extremely hard or even impossible (Boulton & Allen, 2007). Within this research, the actors will be presented by 12 trends, which are divided over three disciplines. As will be explained in more depth in the methodology part of this paper, the trends will be used to compose 4 scenarios. By integrating complexity theory in the scenario composition, the possible development of the different interacting trends can be better predicted. Trend Analysis Concerning the food riot problem in Ethiopia, 12 major trends are identified which together form the current underlying causes of food riots. All these trends originate from three different disciplines: earth science, biology and social geography. Together they form the ‘common ground’ of the problem of food riots in Ethiopia, which will later be presented by a system diagram in the interdisciplinary integration part of this paper (Repko, 2007). This system diagram puts all the different trends in the color of their disciplines, and connects them with arrows which tells the reader if there is a negative or a positive feedback loop between these trends. 5 Selected methods and data This research is conducted in two phases. The first phase is an extensive literature study composing the natural and social economic state of Ethiopia, using earth scientific, biological and social geographical questions. The second phase is a scenario analysis, based upon findings of the literature study. Literature study The main concepts of the research will firstly be analyzed with a literature research study using secondary literature/data. Despite the fact that secondary data tends to be less reliable than primarily data -which consists of observations, experiences and recordings-, for the purpose of this study there is no other option in this case (Walliman, 2011, p. 69). Moreover, “All research studies require secondary data for the background to the study.” (Walliman, 2011, p.78). Nevertheless, there are a lot of academic resources such as The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Agriculture and Food Security and the IPCC, which provide reliable information of the data needed to investigate the food riots in Ethiopia. This literature will be collected through google scholar, web of science and the UvA database. Therefore the literature research will provide the fundament for the problem sketch of the food riots in Ethiopia. Yet the aim of this paper is to provide a new perspective on the problem of food riots in Ethiopia by combining three different disciplines into a theoretical framework. Therefore, it means that this paper has a deductive reasoning; it builds upon other theories and literature studies and tries to achieve new perspectives (Walliman, 2011; p. 19). This theoretical framework will connect all the main concepts of the different disciplines and will come to new insights of the problem. This will be based on connections and links between the secondary data of the three different disciplines. Finally, these new insights will be presented in four different scenarios based on a scenario analysis. Scenario analysis As has been mentioned, the goal of this research is to compose a scenario analysis based on the data collected through the literature study. A scenario methodology
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