PROCEEDING 1st International Conference on Fisheries and Marine Research (ICoFMR 2020) – ISBN:978-602-72784-4-8

ANALYSIS PROJECTION MODEL OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF CONSUMPTION SALT IN , , GRESIK AND REGENCIES

Riski A. La,d , A. Kurniawana,d*, A. R. Kurniatyb,d, T Prayogoc,d C.S, U Dewia,d, , A. A Amind, L.N Salamahd, A.T Yanuard aFaculty of Fisheries and Marine Sciences, Brawijaya University, , East , b bFaculty of Law, Brawijaya University, Malang, , Indonesia cFaculty of Engineering, Brawijaya University, East Java, Indonesia dCoastal and Marine Research Center, Brawijaya University, Malang, East Java, Indonesia

*Corresponding author: [email protected]

Abstract Salt is an important commodity, and strategic commodity. The salt commodity is an unsubstitute commodity. This commodity is widely produced in various regions in Indonesia. Generally, salt is used for consumption and industrial purposes. One of the salt-producing areas in Indonesia is located in the province of East Java. East Java salt production contributes 50% of the total national salt production. Sampang, Probolingo, Tuban, and Gresik are the main contributors to the production of people's salt in East Java. The demand for consumption salt is supplied by salt production. The salt demand increases in the last few years. However, the increase in demand for salt is not balanced with the supply of salt production. This study aims to analysis projection model the supply and demand of consumption salt in Sampang, Probolinggo, Gresik, and Tuban Regencies. The results of system dynamic analysis shows the projection of raw material salt production (supply) in Sampang, Gresik, Probolinggo, and Tuban regencies increase of 8.16%, 6.98%, 4.09%, and 8.18% during the simulation period (2019-2030). While, the demand for consumption salt in Sampang, Gresik, Probolinggo, and Tuban districts increases of 0.03%, 0.33%, 0.07%, and 0.04% per year. These results concluded that the supply of raw material salt fluctuates during the simulation period. In addition, the demand for consumption salt increases during the simulation period by following the exponential growth pattern.

Keywords: salt, salt supply, salt demand, East Java

INTRODUCTION has increased in recent years. National salt demand in 2017 reached 3.61 million tons, Salt is an important commodity, and consisting of consumption salt of 1.48 million strategic commodity. The salt commodity is an tons and industrial salt of 2.13 million tons [4]. unsubstitute commodity. Salt has an important This data shows the demand for salt has role in supporting a nation's economy [1]. One increased significantly. This increase consists of the salt-producing areas in Indonesia is of industrial salt reached 5.82% and located in the province of East Java. East Java consumption salt reached 1.40% per year [4]. salt production contributes 50% of the total However, the increased salt demand has not national salt production. The total salt been matched by sufficient salt production [5]. production in East Java reached 410,900 tons Supply of salt commodities, the initial stock of in 2017 [2]. Sumenep, Lamongan, Sampang, salt in 2017 was 789,000 tons, while the supply Probolingo, Tuban, and Gresik are the main amounted to 2.2 million tons [6]. This contributors to the production of people's salt consisted from the national salt production of in East Java [3]. 916,000 tonnes, added with salt imports of 2.2 Based on data from the Ministry of Marine million tonnes. Accumulatively, the salt supply and Fisheries (KKP) 2018, the demand for salt for that year reached 3.5 million tons.

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Meanwhile, the use of salt for domestic including; (1) Household; (2) Various foods consumption and industry reached 3.55 million industry; and (3) Fish salting industry tons, therefore the final national salt stock remains at 349,000 tons [6]. Meanwhile, in 2017 the Ministry of RESULT AND DISCUSSION Industry mentioned salt demand increased, especially industrial salt. The Demand for Submodel for Supply and Demand of industrial salt was recorded at 3.7 million tons Consumption Salt or an increase of 76.19% when compared to the demand for industrial salt in 2016. [7] Based on a. Sampang data submitted by the Indonesian Salt User Based on analysis, data processing shows Industry Association (AIPGI), the demand for tables and graphs. These tables and graphs are industrial salt is dominated by the the results of comparisons between model petrochemical industry with a demand of 1.78 performance and empirical data on salt in million tons or 47.2% of the total demand. . Based on these conditions, Meanwhile, the Demand for salt for the pulp a simulation is carried out. The purpose of this and paper industry reaches 708 thousand tons simulation is to explain the projection of (18.9%) and for various foods amounting to consumption salt production in Sampang 535 thousand tons (14.2%) [8]. Regency in the next 12 years (2019-2030) Therefore, this causes an imbalance in the (Figure 1 and 2). Demand and production of salt. This caused the government imported salt in 2017. Therefore, 1: PENYEDIAAN GRM KONS the aim of this research is to analysis of 1: 700000 projection model of the supply and demand of consumption salt in the salt production center 1 areas in Sampang, Probolinggo, Gresik and 1 1: 350000 1 Tuban regencies.

METHOD 1 1: 0 Research Location 0.00 3.00 6.00 9.00 12.00 Page 1 Years 1:37 PM Tue, Sep 24, 2019 The location of the activities of this research Proy eksi Peny ediaan Garam Konsumsi Sampang will be carried out in Tuban, Sampang, Gresik Figure 1. Projection of the supply of and Probolinggo regencies. consumption salt in Sampang Regency (2019-2030). Method of collecting data This study uses secondary data and 1: Aneka Pangan 2: Kebut RT 1: 35000 questionare 2: 2145

2 Data analysis 1 2 The analysis used is a dynamic system 1: 25000 2: 2135 approach to analyze the supply and demand of 2 1 salt commodities in each regency; Sampang, 1 Probolinggo, Gresik and Tuban, through the 2 1: 15000 1 preparation of a dynamic model of the salt 2: 2125 0.00 3.00 6.00 9.00 12.00 availability system. Simulation of dynamic Page 1 Years 20:58 23 Sep 2019 Proyeksi Kebutuhan Garan RT dan Aneka Pangan Kabupaten Sampang system modeling of supply and demand for salt Figure 2. Projection of the demand of commodities is carried out to analyze the consumption salt in Sampang supply and demand conditions for Regency (2019-2030). consumption and industrial salt commodities in each research location. Analysis of the supply Based on graphic visualization, the results and demand of consumption salt commodities of the analysis show the projection of the in several districts, is determined based on supply of salt for consumption in Sampang three main groups of salt commodity users, Regency for a period of 12 years (2019-2030).

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The graph of the supply of consumption salt consumption salt has the largest amount that tends to fluctuate every year. The factors that occurred in 2028 amounting to 476,319.00 tons. influence the availability of raw material salt Meanwhile, the supply of consumption salt has are the area of salt pond land, the productivity the smallest physical quantity that will occur in of salt ponds, and the number of days of salt 2026 of 31,351.14 tons. The projection of the harvesting [9]. The projection of the supply of supply of consumption salt in Sampang consumption salt began to increase Regency has an average rate of 8.16% annually. significantly in the 9th year and began to decline in the 11th and 12th years. In addition, Table 2. Projected data on physical quantities the projection of data on the physical quantity and the average rate demand of salt and the average rate of consumption of salt for consumption in Sampang supply in Sampang Regency in the next 12 Regency (2019-2030). years (2019 -2030) (Table 1). Household Salt Food Salt No. Year Demands (ton) (ton) Table 1. Projected data on physical quantities and the average rate of supply of salt 1 2019 2.127.00 15.529.00 for consumption in Sampang 2 2020 2.128.41 16.515.09 Regency (2019-2030). 3 2021 2.129.82 17.563.80 Supply of Consumption No. Year 4 2022 2.131.23 18.679.10 Salt (ton) 5 2023 2.132.64 19.865.22 1 2019 288.183 6 2024 2.134.05 21.126.67 2 2020 205.221 7 2025 2.135.46 22.468.21 3 2021 254.559 8 2026 2.136.88 23.894.94 4 2022 325.836 9 2027 2.138.29 25.412.27 5 2023 342.374 10 2028 2.139.71 27.025.95 6 2024 301.328 11 2029 2.141.13 28.742.10 7 2025 78.018 12 2030 2.142.54 30.567.22 8 2026 31.351 Average rate 9 2027 282.293 (%) 0,06 5,70 10 2028 476.319

11 2029 93.476 Based on this data, the projection of the 12 2030 35.847 physical quantity and the average rate of Average Rate 8,16 consumption of salt demand in Sampang (%) Regency is obtained in the next 12 years (2019-

2030). The demand for household salt has the Based on graphic visualization, the results largest physical quantity that occurs in 2030 of of the analysis show the projection of 2,142.54 tons and the smallest in 2019 is 2,127 consumption salt demand in Sampang Regency tons. Meanwhile, the Demand for salt for for a period of 12 years (2019-2030). Graph of various foods has the largest physical quantity consumption salt demand tend to increase in 2030 of 30,567.22 tons and the smallest is in every year. In addition, data projections on the 2019 of 15,529 tons. The projected demand for physical quantity and the average rate of household salt and various foods in Sampang consumption of salt demand in Sampang Regency has an average rate of 0.06% and Regency are also obtained in the next 10 years 5.7% each year. (2019-2030) (Table 2). The results above are due to the Based on Projected data on physical fluctuation of salt production in Sampang quantities and the average rate of supply of salt Regency in the last 5 years (2014-2018) [10]. for consumption in Sampang Regency, the This caused the supply of salt by the people's projection of the physical quantity and the salt production cannot be separated from average rate of supply of consumption salt in various influencing factors. Climate and Sampang Regency is obtained. The supply of

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weather factors greatly affect the people's salt of the supply of consumption salt begins to farmers to produce salt [2]. During the long dry increase significantly nearing the 10th year and season in 2015, the people's salt production in begins to decline towards the 9th year. East Java increased rapidly. However, in the Based on graphic visualization, the following year, there was a very long rainy analysis results show the projection of season until the end of 2017. consumption salt demand in for a period of 12 years (2019-2030). The b. Gresik Regency graph of the Demand for consumption salt such Based on analysis, data processing shows as household salt and food salt tends to increase tables and graphs. These tables and graphs are every year. In addition, data projections on the the results of comparisons between model physical quantity and average rate of performance and empirical data on salt in consumption of salt demand in Gresik Regency Sampang Regency. Based on these conditions, are also obtained in the next 10 years (2019- a simulation is carried out. The purpose of this 2030) simulation is to explain the projection of consumption salt production in Gresik Table 3. Projected data on physical quantities Regency in the next 10 years (2019-2028) and the average rate of supply of salt (Figure 3 and 4). for consumption in Gresik Regency (2019-2028). 1: PENYEDIAAN GRM KONS Supply of Consumption Salt 1: 8000 No. Year (ton) 1 2019 9,015.66 1 2 2020 269.55 1: 4000 3 2021 11,819.51 1 1 4 2022 11,877.30

5 2023 13,020.40 1 1: 0 0.00 2.50 5.00 7.50 10.00 6 2024 14,273.51 Page 1 Years 5:14 24 Sep 2019 Penyediaan Garam Konsumsi Kabupaten Gresik 7 2025 15,647.23 Figure 3. Projection supply of consumption 8 2026 2,495.00 salt in Gresik Regency (2019- 9 2027 2028). 20,513.48 10 2028 20,613.77 1: Aneka Pangan 2: Kebut RT 11 2029 22,597.69 1: 35000 2: 2460 12 2039 1,351.23 2 Average Rate 6,98 1 (%) 2 1: 25000 2: 2415 1 2 Based on this data, it shows the projection

1 of the physical quantity and the average rate of

2 supplying salt for consumption in Gresik 1: 15000 1 2: 2370 0.00 3.00 6.00 9.00 12.00 Regency in the next 10 years (2019-2030). Page 1 Years 08:16 25 Sep 2019 Supply of consumption salt has the largest Proyeksi Kebutuhan Garam RT dan Aneka Pangan Kabupaten Gresik Figure 4. Projection of the demand of physical quantity that will occur in 2029 consumption salt in Gresik amounting to 22,597.69 tons. Meanwhile, the Regency (2019-2028) supply of consumption salt has the smallest physical quantity that occurred in 2020 Based on graphic visualization, the analysis amounting to 269.55 tons. The projection of results show the projection of the supply of the supply of consumption salt in Gresik consumption salt in Gresik Regency for a Regency has an average growth rate of 6.98% period of 10 years (2019-2028). The graph of annually. the Supply of consumption salt tends to fluctuate (change) every year. The projection

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Table 4. Projected data on physical quantities Based on graphic visualization, the results and the average rate demand of salt of the analysis show the projection of the for consumption in Gresik Regency supply of consumption salt in Probolinggo (2019-2030). Regency for a period of 12 years (2019-2030). Household The graph of the supply of consumption salt Salt fluctuates every year. The projection of the No. Year Demands Food Salt supply of consumption salt begins to increase (ton) (ton) significantly nearing the 10th year and begins 1 2019 2.372.08 15.529.00 to decline towards the 12th year. 2 2020 2.379.16 16.515.09 1: Aneka Pangan 2: Kebut RT 1: 35000 3 2021 2.386.26 17.563.80 2: 2145

4 2022 2.393.38 18.679.10 2

5 2023 2.400.52 19.865.22 1 2 1: 25000 6 2024 2.407.69 21.126.67 2: 2135 2 1 7 2025 2.414.88 22.468.21 1 8 2026 2.422.08 23.894.94 2 1: 15000 1 2: 2125 0.00 3.00 6.00 9.00 12.00 9 2027 2.429.31 25.412.27 Page 1 Years 08:20 25 Sep 2019 Proyeksi Kebutuhan Garam RT dan Aneka Pangan Kabupaten Probolinggo 10 2028 2.436.56 27.025.95 Average Figure 6. Projection of the demand of Rate (%) 0,02 5,05 consumption salt in (2019-2030) The lowest overall production occurred in Gresik Regency in 2017, amounting to only Based on graphic visualization, the 2.85 tons [4]. analysis results show the projection of consumption salt demand in Probolinggo c. Probolinggo Regency Regency for a period of 12 years (2019-2030). Based on analysis, data processing The graph of the Demand for consumption salt, shows tables and graphs. These tables and the Demand for household salt and the Demand graphs are the results of comparisons between for salt for various foods tends to increase model performance and empirical data on salt every year. in Sampang Regency. Based on these conditions, a simulation is carried out. The Table 5. Projected data on physical quantities purpose of this simulation is to explain the and the average rate of supply of salt projection of consumption salt production in for consumption in Gresik Regency Probolinggo Regency in the next 12 years (2019-2028) (2019-2030) (Figure 5 and 6). Supply of No. Year Consumption Salt

1: PENYEDIAAN GRM KONS (ton) 1: 60000 1 2019 26.171,12 2 2020 6.404,07 1 3 2021 26.583,36 1 4 2022 35.718,80 1: 30000 1 5 2023 39.310,97 6 2024 37.180,55

1 7 2025 31.427,64 1: 0 8 2026 4.046,87 0.00 3.00 6.00 9.00 12.00 Page 1 Years 2:25 PM Tue, Sep 24, 2019 Proy eksi Peny ediaan Garam Konsumsi Kabupaten Probolinggo 9 2027 42.314,79 10 2028 55.015,08 Figure 5. Projection supply of consumption 11 2029 40.892,57 salt in Probolinggo Regency 12 2030 6.137,10 (2019-2030) 6,98 Average Rate (%)

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Based on this data, a projection of the consumption salt production in physical quantity and the average rate of in the next 12 years (2019-2030) (Figure 7 dan supply of consumption salt in Probolinggo 8). Regency is obtained in the next 12 years (2019- 2030). Supply of consumption salt has the 1: PENYEDIAAN GRM KONS 1: 700000 largest physical quantity that will occur in 2028 amounting to 55,015.08 tons. Meanwhile, the supply of consumption salt has the smallest 1 1 physical quantity that will occur in 2026 of 1: 350000 1 4,046.87 tonnes. The projection of the supply of consumption salt in Probolinggo Regency 1 has an average rate of 4.09% annually. 1: 0 0.00 3.00 6.00 9.00 12.00 Page 1 Years 4:17 PM Tue, Sep 24, 2019 Table 6. Projected data on physical quantities Proy eksi Peny ediaan Garam Konsumsi Kabupaten Tuban and the average rate demand of salt Figure 7. Projection supply of consumption for consumption in Probolinggo salt in Tuban Regency (2019- Regency (2019-2030). 2030) Household No. Year Salt Food Salt Based on the graphic visualization, the analysis Demands (ton) results show the projection of the supply of (ton) consumption salt in Tuban Regency for a 1 2019 2.127.00 15.529.00 period of 12 years (2019-2030). The graph of 2 2020 2.128.41 16.515.09 the supply of consumption salt tends to 3 2021 2.129.82 17.563.80 fluctuate every year. The projection of the supply of consumption salt begins to increase 4 2022 2.131.23 18.679.10 significantly nearing the 10th year and begins 5 2023 2.132.64 19.865.22 to decline towards the 12th year. 6 2024 2.134.05 21.126.67

1: Aneka Pangan 2: Kebut RT 7 2025 2.135.46 22.468.21 1: 35000 2: 1753 8 2026 2.136.88 23.894.94 2

9 2027 2.138.29 25.412.27 1 2 1: 25000 10 2028 2.139.71 27.025.95 2: 1749 1 11 2029 2.141.13 28.742.10 2 1 12 2030 2.142.54 30.567.22 2 1: 15000 1 2: 1745 0.00 3.00 6.00 9.00 12.00 Avarage rate (%) 0,06 5,70 Page 1 Years 08:22 25 Sep 2019 Proyeksi Kebutuhan Garam RT dan Aneka Pangan Kabupaten Tuban This projection was projected based on salt Figure 8. Projection of the demand of production in Probolinggo Regency. consumption salt in Tuban Probolinggo Regency had the largest Regency (2019-2030) production yield in 2015, amounting to 26,211,274 tons and weight in 2017 of Based on graphic visualization, the analysis 14,983,488 tons [4]. results show the projection of consumption salt demand in Tuban Regency for a period of 12 d. Tuban Regency years (2019-2030). Graph of consumption salt Based on analysis, data processing shows Demands, both household salt Demands and tables and graphs. These tables and graphs are salt Demands for various foods tend to increase the results of comparisons between model every year. performance and empirical data on salt in Based on this data, a projection of the Sampang Regency. Based on these conditions, physical quantity and the average rate of a simulation is carried out. The purpose of this supply of consumption salt in Tuban Regency simulation is to explain the projection of is obtained in the next 12 years (2019-2030). Supply of consumption salt has the largest

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physical quantity that occurs in 2028 Tuban Regency has the largest salt amounting to 38,081.79 tons. Meanwhile, the production in 2018 amounting to 32,320.14 supply of consumption salt has the smallest tons and the smallest in 2016 amounting to physical quantity that occurs in 2026 of 3,237.1 tons [4]. 2,624.23 tons. The projection of the supply of consumption salt in Probolinggo Regency has CONCLUSION an average rate of 8.16% annually. The dynamic system analysis show that the production of raw material salt (supply) in Sampang, Gresik, Probolinggo, and Tuban Table 7. Projected data on physical quantities districts is projected to experience growth of and the average rate of supply of salt 8.16%, 6.98%, 4.09%, and 8.18% during the for consumption in Gresik Regency simulation period. In the submodel of the (2019-2028 demand for iodized salt for consumption (SNI Supply of 3556: 2010) and salt for raw materials for the No. Year Consumption Salt (ton) iodized / various food industry (SNI 4435: 2017), show that the demand for both salts 1 2019 23.305,27 increases during the simulation period by 2 2020 4.446,25 3 2021 23.891,98 following the exponential growth pattern. In 4 2022 29.067,41 2018, the demand for consumption salt in 5 2023 30.606,65 Sampang, Gresik, Probolinggo and Tuban 6 2024 29.019,68 Regencies is 1,745 tons, 2,372 tons, 2,142 tons 7 2025 27.863,47 and 2,345 tons per year. During the simulation 8 2026 2.624,23 period, the results of the analysis show that the 9 2027 34.032,45 demand for consumption salt in Sampang, 10 2028 38.081,79 Gresik, Probolinggo, and Tuban districts is 11 2029 33.704,54 projected to experience growth of 0.03%, 12 2030 1.039,10 0.33%, 0.07%, and 0.04% per year. Average Rate (%) 6,98 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

Table 8. Projected data on physical quantities Researchers expressed their gratitude to and the average rate demand of salt UB Study Center Grant, Universitas Brawijaya for consumption in Tuban Regency (Hibah Pusat Studi), the Regional Research (2019-2030). and Development Agency of East Java Province, the Tuban Regency Fisheries and No. Year Household Salt Food Salt Marine Service, the Gresik Regency Fisheries Demands (ton) (ton) and Livestock Service, the Probolinggo 1 2019 1.745.46 15.529.00 Regency Fisheries and Marine Service, the 2 2020 1.746.04 16.515.09 Sampang Regency Fisheries and Marine Service, and PT. Kencana Tiara Gemilang. 3 2021 1.746.62 17.563.80

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