Analysis Projection Model of Supply and Demand of Consumption Salt in Sampang, Probolinggo, Gresik and Tuban Regencies
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PROCEEDING 1st International Conference on Fisheries and Marine Research (ICoFMR 2020) – ISBN:978-602-72784-4-8 ANALYSIS PROJECTION MODEL OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF CONSUMPTION SALT IN SAMPANG, PROBOLINGGO, GRESIK AND TUBAN REGENCIES Riski A. La,d , A. Kurniawana,d*, A. R. Kurniatyb,d, T Prayogoc,d C.S, U Dewia,d, , A. A Amind, L.N Salamahd, A.T Yanuard aFaculty of Fisheries and Marine Sciences, Brawijaya University, Malang, East Java, Indonesia b bFaculty of Law, Brawijaya University, Malang, East Java, Indonesia cFaculty of Engineering, Brawijaya University, East Java, Indonesia dCoastal and Marine Research Center, Brawijaya University, Malang, East Java, Indonesia *Corresponding author: [email protected] Abstract Salt is an important commodity, and strategic commodity. The salt commodity is an unsubstitute commodity. This commodity is widely produced in various regions in Indonesia. Generally, salt is used for consumption and industrial purposes. One of the salt-producing areas in Indonesia is located in the province of East Java. East Java salt production contributes 50% of the total national salt production. Sampang, Probolingo, Tuban, and Gresik are the main contributors to the production of people's salt in East Java. The demand for consumption salt is supplied by salt production. The salt demand increases in the last few years. However, the increase in demand for salt is not balanced with the supply of salt production. This study aims to analysis projection model the supply and demand of consumption salt in Sampang, Probolinggo, Gresik, and Tuban Regencies. The results of system dynamic analysis shows the projection of raw material salt production (supply) in Sampang, Gresik, Probolinggo, and Tuban regencies increase of 8.16%, 6.98%, 4.09%, and 8.18% during the simulation period (2019-2030). While, the demand for consumption salt in Sampang, Gresik, Probolinggo, and Tuban districts increases of 0.03%, 0.33%, 0.07%, and 0.04% per year. These results concluded that the supply of raw material salt fluctuates during the simulation period. In addition, the demand for consumption salt increases during the simulation period by following the exponential growth pattern. Keywords: salt, salt supply, salt demand, East Java INTRODUCTION has increased in recent years. National salt demand in 2017 reached 3.61 million tons, Salt is an important commodity, and consisting of consumption salt of 1.48 million strategic commodity. The salt commodity is an tons and industrial salt of 2.13 million tons [4]. unsubstitute commodity. Salt has an important This data shows the demand for salt has role in supporting a nation's economy [1]. One increased significantly. This increase consists of the salt-producing areas in Indonesia is of industrial salt reached 5.82% and located in the province of East Java. East Java consumption salt reached 1.40% per year [4]. salt production contributes 50% of the total However, the increased salt demand has not national salt production. The total salt been matched by sufficient salt production [5]. production in East Java reached 410,900 tons Supply of salt commodities, the initial stock of in 2017 [2]. Sumenep, Lamongan, Sampang, salt in 2017 was 789,000 tons, while the supply Probolingo, Tuban, and Gresik are the main amounted to 2.2 million tons [6]. This contributors to the production of people's salt consisted from the national salt production of in East Java [3]. 916,000 tonnes, added with salt imports of 2.2 Based on data from the Ministry of Marine million tonnes. Accumulatively, the salt supply and Fisheries (KKP) 2018, the demand for salt for that year reached 3.5 million tons. ©ICoFMR2020 79 PROCEEDING 1st International Conference on Fisheries and Marine Research (ICoFMR 2020) – ISBN:978-602-72784-4-8 Meanwhile, the use of salt for domestic including; (1) Household; (2) Various foods consumption and industry reached 3.55 million industry; and (3) Fish salting industry tons, therefore the final national salt stock remains at 349,000 tons [6]. Meanwhile, in 2017 the Ministry of RESULT AND DISCUSSION Industry mentioned salt demand increased, especially industrial salt. The Demand for Submodel for Supply and Demand of industrial salt was recorded at 3.7 million tons Consumption Salt or an increase of 76.19% when compared to the demand for industrial salt in 2016. [7] Based on a. Sampang Regency data submitted by the Indonesian Salt User Based on analysis, data processing shows Industry Association (AIPGI), the demand for tables and graphs. These tables and graphs are industrial salt is dominated by the the results of comparisons between model petrochemical industry with a demand of 1.78 performance and empirical data on salt in million tons or 47.2% of the total demand. Sampang Regency. Based on these conditions, Meanwhile, the Demand for salt for the pulp a simulation is carried out. The purpose of this and paper industry reaches 708 thousand tons simulation is to explain the projection of (18.9%) and for various foods amounting to consumption salt production in Sampang 535 thousand tons (14.2%) [8]. Regency in the next 12 years (2019-2030) Therefore, this causes an imbalance in the (Figure 1 and 2). Demand and production of salt. This caused the government imported salt in 2017. Therefore, 1: PENYEDIAAN GRM KONS the aim of this research is to analysis of 1: 700000 projection model of the supply and demand of consumption salt in the salt production center 1 areas in Sampang, Probolinggo, Gresik and 1 1: 350000 1 Tuban regencies. METHOD 1 Research Location 1: 0 0.00 3.00 6.00 9.00 12.00 Page 1 Years 1:37 PM Tue, Sep 24, 2019 The location of the activities of this research Proy eksi Peny ediaan Garam Konsumsi Sampang will be carried out in Tuban, Sampang, Gresik Figure 1. Projection of the supply of and Probolinggo regencies. consumption salt in Sampang Regency (2019-2030). Method of collecting data This study uses secondary data and 1: Aneka Pangan 2: Kebut RT 1: 35000 questionare 2: 2145 2 Data analysis 1 2 The analysis used is a dynamic system 1: 25000 2: 2135 approach to analyze the supply and demand of 2 1 salt commodities in each regency; Sampang, 1 Probolinggo, Gresik and Tuban, through the 2 1: 15000 1 preparation of a dynamic model of the salt 2: 2125 0.00 3.00 6.00 9.00 12.00 availability system. Simulation of dynamic Page 1 Years 20:58 23 Sep 2019 Proyeksi Kebutuhan Garan RT dan Aneka Pangan Kabupaten Sampang system modeling of supply and demand for salt Figure 2. Projection of the demand of commodities is carried out to analyze the consumption salt in Sampang supply and demand conditions for Regency (2019-2030). consumption and industrial salt commodities in each research location. Analysis of the supply Based on graphic visualization, the results and demand of consumption salt commodities of the analysis show the projection of the in several districts, is determined based on supply of salt for consumption in Sampang three main groups of salt commodity users, Regency for a period of 12 years (2019-2030). ©ICoFMR2020 80 PROCEEDING 1st International Conference on Fisheries and Marine Research (ICoFMR 2020) – ISBN:978-602-72784-4-8 The graph of the supply of consumption salt consumption salt has the largest amount that tends to fluctuate every year. The factors that occurred in 2028 amounting to 476,319.00 tons. influence the availability of raw material salt Meanwhile, the supply of consumption salt has are the area of salt pond land, the productivity the smallest physical quantity that will occur in of salt ponds, and the number of days of salt 2026 of 31,351.14 tons. The projection of the harvesting [9]. The projection of the supply of supply of consumption salt in Sampang consumption salt began to increase Regency has an average rate of 8.16% annually. significantly in the 9th year and began to decline in the 11th and 12th years. In addition, Table 2. Projected data on physical quantities the projection of data on the physical quantity and the average rate demand of salt and the average rate of consumption of salt for consumption in Sampang supply in Sampang Regency in the next 12 Regency (2019-2030). years (2019 -2030) (Table 1). Household Salt Food Salt No. Year Demands (ton) (ton) Table 1. Projected data on physical quantities and the average rate of supply of salt 1 2019 2.127.00 15.529.00 for consumption in Sampang 2 2020 2.128.41 16.515.09 Regency (2019-2030). 3 2021 2.129.82 17.563.80 Supply of Consumption No. Year 4 2022 2.131.23 18.679.10 Salt (ton) 5 2023 2.132.64 19.865.22 1 2019 288.183 6 2024 2.134.05 21.126.67 2 2020 205.221 7 2025 2.135.46 22.468.21 3 2021 254.559 8 2026 2.136.88 23.894.94 4 2022 325.836 9 2027 2.138.29 25.412.27 5 2023 342.374 10 2028 2.139.71 27.025.95 6 2024 301.328 11 2029 2.141.13 28.742.10 7 2025 78.018 12 2030 2.142.54 30.567.22 8 2026 31.351 Average rate 9 2027 282.293 (%) 0,06 5,70 10 2028 476.319 11 2029 93.476 Based on this data, the projection of the 12 2030 35.847 physical quantity and the average rate of Average Rate 8,16 consumption of salt demand in Sampang (%) Regency is obtained in the next 12 years (2019- 2030). The demand for household salt has the Based on graphic visualization, the results largest physical quantity that occurs in 2030 of of the analysis show the projection of 2,142.54 tons and the smallest in 2019 is 2,127 consumption salt demand in Sampang Regency tons.