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Sovereign Wealth Funds: a Bottom-Up Primer JPMorgan Research 22 May 2008 Sovereign Wealth Funds: A Bottom-up Primer • Assets under management (AuM) of the over 50 Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) covered in this primer totaled between US$3.0 to 3.7 trillion at the end of 2007 • While SWFs are large, many projections of their future growth are overstated. The bottom-up approach used in this Primer yields a range of growth scenarios. In a high inflow/high return scenario, SWF assets achieve 20% annual growth, to reach US$9.3 trillion AuM in 2012, which matches that cited by many commentators. However, in a low inflow/low return scenario, total assets grow at less than 11%, totaling US$5 trillion in 2012. • The asset class that will see the largest impact will be alternatives, with SWFs share in total alternatives to rise to at least 10% and possibly as high as 17% by 2012. • However, the impact of SWFs on bond and equity markets will remain low. SWFs share in either market is in the low single-digits and unlikely to change significantly. Moreover, their investments are well diversified. This stands in contrast to central banks, which are highly concentrated around the much smaller government bond market. • SWFs have become more active in primary and M&A transactions and this trend is likely to continue. • The creation of a broad set of “best practices” for SWFs and for recipient countries is encouraging. But what is more important is what SWFs are actually doing. We find that, in terms of disclosure David G. FernandezAC practices, investment approach and market behavior, SWFs are (65) 6882-2461 more in line with best practices than political rhetoric suggests. [email protected] Bernhard Eschweiler (65) 6882-2212 [email protected] www.morganmarkets.com JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Singapore Branch See page 97 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including investment banking relationships. JPMorgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. The analysts listed above are employees of either J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private Limited or another non-US affiliate of JPMSI, and are not registered/qualified as research analysts under NYSE/NASD rules, unless otherwise noted. David G. Fernandez JPMorgan Research (65) 6882-2461 22 May 2008 [email protected] Table of Contents Sovereign Wealth Funds: A Bottom-up Primer ...................................................................3 Introduction...............................................................................................................................................................................3 Sources and purpose..................................................................................................................................................................4 Current size and future growth: A bottom-up approach............................................................................................................7 Asset allocation and market impact.........................................................................................................................................12 Friend or enemy ......................................................................................................................................................................17 Sovereign Wealth Funds: Summary tables........................................................................21 By Assets Under Management................................................................................................................................................21 By Country..............................................................................................................................................................................22 Individual Fund Pages (in order of declining asset size) Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA).....................23 Public Investment Fund (Saudi Arabia).........................67 Government Pension Fund (Norway)............................24 Dubai International Capital............................................68 Government of Singapore Investment Excess Crude Fund (Nigeria).........................................69 Corporation (GIC) .........................................................26 Reserve Fund for Oil (Angola)......................................69 Saudi Arabia Monetary Authority (SAMA) ..................28 Fund for Future Generations (Gabon) ...........................69 Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA)..............................29 National Hydrocarbon Revenue Fund (Mauritania) ......69 China Investment Corporation (CIC) ............................31 New Zealand Superannuation Fund...............................70 Hong Kong Exchange Fund...........................................33 Oil Stabilization Fund (Iran)..........................................72 Temasek (Singapore).....................................................35 Mubadala (United Arab Emirates).................................73 Oil & Gas Fund (Russia) ...............................................37 Development Fund for Iraq (DFI) .................................74 Queensland Investment Corporation (QIC)...................39 Pula Fund (Botswana) ...................................................75 Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) ................................40 State General Reserve Fund (Oman) .............................76 Future Fund (Australia) .................................................41 Istithmar World (United Arab Emirates) .......................77 Pension Reserve Fund (France).....................................43 Permanent Wyoming Mineral Trust Fund.....................78 Libyan Investment Authority (LIA) ..............................45 Oil Stabilization Fund (Mexico)....................................80 Algeria Fonds de Régulation des Recettes (FRR) .........46 Timor-Leste Petroleum Fund.........................................81 Alaska Permanent Reserve Fund...................................47 State Oil Fund (Azerbaijan)...........................................82 Victorian Funds Management Corporation (VFMC) ....49 Heritage and Stabilization Fund (Trinidad & Tobago)..84 Brunei Investment Authority .........................................51 Oil Stabilization Fund (Colombia) ................................86 National Pension Reserve Fund (Ireland)......................52 State Capital Investment Corporation (Vietnam) ..........87 Khazanah Nasional BHD (Malaysia) ............................54 Chile Pension Reserve Fund .........................................89 Kingdom Holding Company (Saudi Arabia) .................55 Investment Fund for Macroeconomic National Oil Fund (Kazakhstan)....................................56 Stabilization (Venezuela) ..............................................90 Korea Investment Corporation (KIC)............................58 Revenue Equalization Reserve Fund (Kiribati) .............91 National Development Fund (Venezuela) .....................60 National Fund for Hydrocarbon Reserves (Mauritania) 92 Alberta Heritage Fund ...................................................61 Emirates Investment Authority......................................93 New Mexico Permanent Trust Funds ............................63 Investment Corp of Dubai .............................................94 Economic and Social Stabilization Fund (Chile)...........65 Countries contemplating SWFs & funds not included...95 National Stabilization Fund (Taiwan)............................66 A primer like this could not have been done without input from across the JPMorgan Global Research team. We thank, in particular, Shyam Kakati and Ankita Mittal for their exhaustive research assistance and Fabio Akira, Joyce Chang, Bruce Kasman, Jan Loeys, Nicola Mai, Michael Marrese, Grace Ng, Claudio Piron, Ben Ramsey, Neena Sapra, Anatoliy Shal, Katherine Spector, and Graham Stock for their thoughtful suggestions and comments. 2 Bernhard Eschweiler JPMorgan Research (65) 6882-2212 22 May 2008 [email protected] Sovereign Wealth Funds: A Bottom-up Primer Introduction Sovereign wealth funds (SWF) have become all the rage. They get more media coverage than hedge funds and private equity firms combined, financial institutions are courting them as never before, they are the favored topic of economic and financial forums, and they have become a hot political topic. SWFs are accused of having hidden agendas and yet are welcomed as saviors of Wall Street’s finest. Four developments are behind the current focus on SWFs: • The phenomenal rise of foreign reserves, chiefly among oil exporting countries and some of the current account surplus countries in Asia; • The establishment of new SWFs, such as China’s Investment Corporation (CIC) or Russia’s Stabilization Fund; • Some high-profile attempts by foreign government entities to purchase large stakes in companies in the US and Europe that are viewed to be of strategic or even national security importance; • The recent multi-billion dollar investments by leading SWFs to help recapitalize some of the world’s leading financial institutions. Against this current background, it is important to remember that SWFs are nothing new. Indeed, many of the established funds have been
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