Indo-Pakistani Conflict and Development of South Asia: Is an Independent Kashmir State a Possible Consideration?
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Indo-Pakistani Conflict and Development of South Asia: Is an Independent Kashmir State a Possible Consideration? By Raquel Abimbola ADEKOYE Student No: 201545512 A thesis submitted in fulfillment of the requirements for the DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY (Development Studies) Faculty of Arts at the University of Zululand, South Africa Supervisor Dr Cotties T. Adetiba April 2018 DECLARATION I, Raquel Abimbola ADEKOYE (with Student Number: 201545512) solemnly declare that (i) The research reported in this thesis, except where otherwise indicated, is my original work. (ii) This thesis has not been submitted for any degree or examination at any other university. (iii) The thesis does not contain other person’s data, pictures, graphs or other information, unless specifically acknowledged as being sourced from other persons. (iv) This thesis builds ideas from the candidate’s master’s dissertation concluded in 2014 – to build the literature review sections. (v) This thesis does not contain other person’s writing, unless specifically acknowledged as being sourced from other researchers. Where other written sources have been quoted, then: a) Their words have been re-written but the general information attributed to them has been referenced; b) Where their exact words have been used, their writing has been inside quotation marks and referenced accordingly. __________________________ 10 – 04 - 2018. Raquel Abimbola ADEKOYE Date i ABSTRACT The thesis explores the conflict between India and Pakistan over Kashmir as a dispute symbol. It highlights the socio-economic implications of the conflict on the conflicting states of India and Pakistan. The conflicting symbol, Kashmir, as well as the entire South Asia that house all of them, with a view to suggest a lasting solution which it gives as, the creation of an independent Kashmir State. It is argued here that domestic politics in both India and Pakistan complicates the Kashmiri issue. In Pakistan, it has enabled the military to assume a dominant and pre-eminent position in politics. In India, a penchant for coalition government creates an immobility that is felt on the Kashmir crisis. In general, there is an on-going, serious and intense arms race between India and Pakistan that has increasingly led to a diversion of resources to investment in nuclear technology by both countries. Holding on to Kashmir has made India vulnerable to terrorist attacks, with the consequences of not only diverting developmental resources to enhancing security, but also exacerbating conflict with Pakistan. Economic relations between the main antagonists have remained marginal since the partition. Initiatives such as cooperation in water resource management between the two countries, and proposed joint development of oil and gas pipelines have failed to materialize. This led to the conclusion that both countries have allowed their economic relations with potential for huge benefits to be held hostage to the Kashmir crisis. In terms of the level of economic development, India holds big advantage. This advantage is harnessed into a superior conventional military capability which has also enabled India to rule out first strike as its nuclear doctrine. However, the disadvantageous position of Pakistan makes it view nuclear weapons as the equalizer, and the possibility of a first use is not ruled out. ii As a possible negotiated solution to the Kashmir conflict, it is argued here that as long as both India and Pakistan cling to their historically-entrenched positions, there is hardly any chance for permanent peace in Kashmir, thereby complicating their strategic stance in the region. It also argues that the Independence of Kashmir is the only guarantee of a lasting solution to the Kashmir conflict and South East Asia development crisis. The theories of Neo-Realism and Neo-Liberalism are central in this thesis to explain outcomes towards peace initiatives between India and Pakistan, and the implications for South Asia. Three specific concepts advanced by neo-realists and neo-liberal theorists are chosen to explore and explain the three principles of this study: The Balance of Power, Security and Economic Co-operation. Kashmir’s embroidery of encounters from forces of brutality, state repression particularly on the Indian occupied territories, massive militarization, stunted infrastructural and socio- economic development, insecurity to gross human rights violations leaves impacts so grave for social structures needed for modernity and sense of decent livelihood. Methodologically, the thesis provides a conceptual definition of the right to self-determination particularly from the United Nations perspective. It then applies the United Nations declared right of self-determination to Kashmir. This is achieved by outlining United Nations action on Kashmiri self-determination and then by applying the components of the right to Kashmir. The thesis concludes with some observations regarding resolving the Kashmir crisis. The central of this is the inevitable position that the realization of the right to self-determination will bring to fore in realizing peace and development for the region as a whole and to the parties involved in the crisis. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I will like to extend my sincere appreciation to my supervisor Dr Cotties T. Adetiba, whose support and comments, help in guiding me to the successful completion of this dissertation. He provided me with a convenient space to express my thoughts and imagination in the development of this write-up. I will also like to thank Mrs Kehinde Adekoye, the best mom ever, my sister, Shade Andrea Adekoye, and my brothers, Giovanni and Gbenga. I also extend my appreciation to my wonderful in-laws – Michael, Houston, Ernest, Chris, Oj, Alex, Conscience, Kike, Tayo, Deola, Olayide and others. You are all the inspiration I need. I must reserve my best appreciation to my children – LeRoy, Layla and Marvelous for enduring my many absences during the course of this thesis writing. To my superman, my engine room whom God has divinely placed in my life to make life easier for me – what would I do without you and your unconditional love? I bless the day I found you, my heart – Dr Legend Ehi-Timi Asuelime. A last but first thought of gratitude goes to the maker of heaven and earth - Jesus. I bless you for your strength, wisdom and infinite mercies once again. iv ACRONYMS AT Allah Tigers BOP Balance Power BOT Balance of Terror CARs Central Asian Republics CBMs Confidence Building Measures EU European Union GOP Government of Pakistan GWOT Global War on Terrorism HI Hizbul Islami IPI Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline ISI Inter-Service Intelligence ISI Import-Substitution Industrialisation ISL Islami Student League IWT Indus Water Treaty JET Jamaat-e-Islami JKLF Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front LET Laskar-e-Taiba LoC Line of Control NAM Non-aligned Movement NC National Congress Party NPT Non-Proliferation Treaty PIS Pakistan Intelligence Services RAW Research and Analysing Wing of India SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation SC Security Council TAPI Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline UK United Kingdom UN United Nations UNCIP United Nations Commission for India and Pakistan UPA United Progressive Alliance USA United States of America WOT War on Terrorism v TABLE OF CONTENTS Declaration………………………………………………………………..i Abstract………………………………………………………………......ii Acknowledgements……………………………………………………...iii Acronyms………………………………………………………………...iv Table of Contents………………………………………………………...v ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION………………………………………………………………………1 1.1 Background of the Study……………………………………………………………..1 1.2 The Kashmir Conflict………………………………………………………………...3 1.3 Problem Statement…………………………………………………………………..10 1.4 Research Questions………………………………………………………………….11 1.5 Aim of the Study…………………………………………………………………….12 1.6 Significance of the Study……………………………………………………………12 1.7 Research Methodology……………………………………………………………...13 1.7.1 Overview of Methodology………………………………………………………13 1.7.2 Method…………………………………………………………………………..15 1.7.3 Data Sources……………………………………………………………………..15 1.8 Limitation of Study………………………………………………………………….16 1.9 Chapterization……………………………………………………………………….17 CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW AND THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK………………20 2.1 A Review of the Literature………………………………………………………….20 2.2 Theoretical Framework………………………………………………......................33 2.3 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………….40 CHAPTER THREE A REVIEW OF INDIA-PAKISTANI PEACE PROCESS………………………..41 3.1 Introduction………………………………………………………………………...41 3.2 Strategic Partnerships………………………………………………………………42 3.3 The UN-Led Phase…………………………………………………………………44 3.4 The State-Led Phase……………………………………………………………….47 3.5 The Inactive Phase……....…………………………………………………………49 vi 3.6 The Insurgency Phase……………………………………………………….........52 3.7 The Convergence Phase…………………………………………………………..52 3.8 Nuclear Security………………………………………………………………….58 3.9 Resolving The Conflict?.........................................................................................65 3.10 Conclusion………………………………………………………………………68 CHAPTER FOUR A HISTORICAL ANALYSIS OF INDIA AND PAKISTAN NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION…………………………………………………………………70 4.1 Introduction………………………………………………………………………70 4.2 Case Study of India……………………………………………………………....72 4.2.1. Technological Capabilities and Constraints…………………………………...72 4.2.2. Motivations: Incentives and Constraints……………………………………….79 4.3. Case Study of Pakistan …………………………………………………………..85