Retail (Apparel) APRIL 2020
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Industry Surveys Retail (Apparel) APRIL 2020 Camilla Yanushevsky Xiong Jun Goon Equity Analyst Industry Analyst C O N T E N T S Contacts Sales Inquires & Client Support 5 Industry Snapshot 800.220.0502 [email protected] 6 Financial Metrics Media Inquiries 7 Key Industry Drivers [email protected] CFRA 8 Industry Trends One New York Plaza New York, NY 10004 9 Porter’s Five Forces Analysis 19 How the Industry Operates Contributors 25 How to Analyze a Company in this Industry Beth Piskora Vice President, Editorial 30 Glossary Marc Bastow 31 Industry References Senior Editor 32 Comparative Company Analysis Raymond Jarvis Associate Editor Copyright © 2019 CFRA, One New York Plaza, New York, NY 10004. All rights reserved. C H A R T S & F I G U R E S N E W T H E M E S What’s Changed: The novel 6 Industry Median Same-Store Sales coronavirus outbreak has Industry Median Gross Margin changed everything. We have Industry Median Return on Equity (ROE) it covered from right in the Executive Summary, and 7 Consumer Confidence Index include a more detailed U.S. Real Disposable Personal Income overview on Page 13. U.S. Consumer Price Index 8 Profit Share Map: Multi-Line and Specialty Retail Sub-Industries Profit Share Map of the Consumer Discretionary Industries What’s Changed: Retail bankruptcies continue to 9 Announced U.S. Retail Bankruptcies impact the industry. Our U.S. Dividend Growth Retail Bankruptcies chart on Page 10 provides an up-to- 10 U.S. Retail Bankruptcies by Primary date look at this key trend Industry listed by primary industry. 11 Credit Ratings for the Consumer Discretionary Sector Credit Ratings for the Apparel Retail Industry What’s Changed: 12 Credit Ratings and Selected Ratios for the “Athleisure” is one of the new Constituents of the Apparel Retail Industry terms of art in the industry, and we discuss this trend in 16 U.S. Retail “Inclusivity” Volumes in Public depth starting on Page 17. Filings, Investor Presentations, and Transcripts. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Will Coronavirus Induce Retail’s Collapse? Retail started 2020 with solid footing. Year to date through March 22, retailers announced 2,910 openings and 1,883 planned closures, far under the 5,399 closures announced in the same year ago period, according to Coresight Research. Then came the coronavirus and now over 15,000 stores could permanently close this year, the global research firm forecasts. That is almost double the 9,548 announced store shutters in 2019, and we expect the tallies can be greater if the coronavirus stays longer. Dividend Cuts, Ratings Downgrades, And Increased Corporate Borrowing Covid-19 is inducing collateral damage on retailers’ balance sheets, Dividends for constituents in the S&P Composite 1500 Apparel Retail are expected to experience a median decline of -17.1% in FY 2021 as compared to those in the S&P Composite 1500 Consumer Discretionary of -1.3%. CFRA believes that the numbers will be revised lower as analysts update their dividend estimates after fully considering the impact of the Covid-19 outbreak. Not surprisingly, as of April 7th, S&P Global Ratings downgraded the long-term credit rating of close to 200 consumer-related companies as companies were forced to limit or halt operations to protect their workers and help slow the spread of virus. Among the downgraded were nine apparel retailers, nine department stores and seven companies in the apparel, accessories and luxury goods industry. What’s more -- throughout the month of March, corporations have borrowed a whopping $98.9 billion to shore up short term liquidity amid a limited economic activity environment. To put into perspective, total corporate borrowing year-to-date by the end of March stood at $154.8 billion. Of the $98.9 billion borrowed, $86.3 billion were companies in the consumer discretionary sector. At $6.9 billion, apparel retailers were the third largest borrowers in the consumer discretionary sector. Department stores and apparel, accessories and luxury goods, on the other hand, were the sixth and seventh biggest borrowers in the consumer discretionary sector at $3.8 billion and $3.2 billion, respectively. With Social Distancing, E-Commerce Will Continue to Reign Before the outbreak of the coronavirus, the proliferation of e-commerce and digital transformation was leading to a substantial decline in mall foot traffic. Mastercard reported that while overall sales during the holiday period (reported from November 1, 2019 to Christmas Eve) increased 3.4% year-over-year, physical stores sales grew only 1.2% during that period. Now with the alarming level of spread and severity of the coronavirus, we are witnessing a dramatic shift in consumer behavior and shopping patterns. The “cocooning” effect will undoubtedly hurt foot traffic for physical stores and accelerate e- commerce’s reign. But Let’s Not Forget…The U.S. Consumer Was Losing Steam Before Covid-19 While the outbreak of the coronavirus has drawn a lot of concerns over the state of the services economy, we saw signs the U.S. consumer was losing steam much before. During the 2019 holiday season, much of retail spending was driven by higher gasoline prices, which lifted receipts at service stations, and consumers showed clear signs of dialing back on discretionary categories, notably in the month of November. What's more, the sluggish spending carried well into this year. In January, core retail sales, which excludes automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services, were unchanged, and in February, before the coronavirus struck the U.S. with force, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that retail sales declined 0.5% from January. We project same-store sales for constituents in the S&P Composite 1500 Apparel Retail index to decline 4.7% in FY 21 before growing by 6.0% in FY 22. INDUSTRY SURVEYS RETAIL (APPAREL) / APRIL 2020 4 Industry Snapshot www.cfraresearch.com RETAIL (APPAREL) Outlook: Neutral KEY TAKEAWAYS: FISCAL 2021/2022 PREVIEW We project U.S. retail sales growing 2.5% Revenue Growth Forecast: -7.0% in FY 2021, 6.8% in FY 2022 in 2020 versus a 3.6% gain in 2019 and a 5.0% gain in 2018. We expect the off-price EBIT Margin Growth: -253 bps in FY 2021, +166 bps in FY 2022 apparel retailers to out-perform, and we expect department stores to under- perform. Amid the coronavirus outbreak, Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY), Vanguard Consumer Discretionary we recommend apparel retailers with Industry-Focused Exchange (VCR), SPDR S&P Retail (XRT), Fidelity MSCI strong balance sheets, high digital Traded Funds (ETFs): penetration and higher exposure to Asia, a Consumer Discretionary (FDIS), VanEck region which is already seeing signs of Vectors Retail (RTH) normalization of supply and demand. *Note: Financial metrics in this table and throughout page 6 are estimated/calculated based on the companies listed in the “Comparative Company Analysis” section. MARKET CAP BREAKDOWN (as of March 31, 2020) 2019 INDEX PERFORMANCE REVIEW RANK COMPANY MARKET Retail (Apparel) Industry 20.6% NO. NAME CAP S&P Composite 1500 28.3% ($ billion) 1 TJX 57.3 NEAR-TERM THEMES 2 Ross Stores 31.2 Declining Interest Rates Artificial Intelligence 3.2 3 L Brands Lowering cost of borrowing Driving the next frontier of 4 The Gap 2.6 loyalty Policymakers are attempting to 5 Foot Locker 2.3 stimulate additional consumer and Retail now surpasses most other Others* 7.1 investment spending. industries with regard to IT spend. Software is the fastest growing Source: CFRA, S&P Global Market Intelligence. *Others with at least 1% market cap include: Urban Outfitters and category. American Eagle Outfitters 20-YEAR INDEX PERFORMANCE 250% S&P Composite 1500 S&P Composite 1500 Apparel Retail 150% 50% -50% -150% 5 RETAIL (APPAREL) / APRIL 2020 INDUSTRY SURVEYS FINANCIAL METRICS Median Same-Store Sales (percent change, Y-o-Y) Same store sales have seen low to no growth in the 8.0 past few years partly due to a secular shift in 6.0 consumer shopping patterns to alternative avenues 4.0 such as apparel rentals, secondhand purchases, and just re-wearing of old clothes. 2.0 0.0 Baby boomers are buying less clothes as they age, -2.0 and younger generations are less inclined to buy as -4.0 many clothes. -6.0 We project same-store sales for constituents in the FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 e-Estimate (e) (e) (e) S&P Composite 1500 Apparel Retail index to decline Source: CFRA; S&P Global Market Intelligence. 5.4% in FY 21 before growing by 5.7% in FY 22 due to lower sales estimates due to the outbreak of coronavirus. Median Gross Margin (percent) Gross Margin has been on a downward trend due to 42 high fixed cost of operating brick and mortars against 40 a backdrop of a low to no sales growth. 38 We project the median gross margin for industry 36 constituents to narrow to 34.3% in FY 21 and expand to 34.7% in FY 22. 34 32 30 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 e-Estimate (e) (e) (e) Source: CFRA; S&P Global Market Intelligence. Median Return on Equity (ROE) (percent) We project median ROE for industry constituents to 18 decrease to 10.4% in FY 21 before recovering to 16.4% in FY 22 due to positive sales expectations. 16 14 12 10 8 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 e-Estimate (e) (e) (e) Source: CFRA; S&P Global Market Intelligence. INDUSTRY SURVEYS RETAIL (APPAREL) / APRIL 2020 6 KEY INDUSTRY DRIVERS Consumer Confidence Index (index, 1985=100) We project that the Consumer Confidence index will 160 average 124.2 in 2020.