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Macroeconomic & Equity Market Outlook Valuations Reach Close to Fair

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Macroeconomic & Equity Market Outlook Valuations Reach Close to Fair Genel / Public Macroeconomic & Equity Market Outlook January 13, 2021 Valuations reach close to fair Turkish economy seeking sustainable growth in 2021. We estimate GDP growth was 1.6% in 2020, thanks to the strong loan growth. The recovery -30% trend continues despite tighter financial conditions. We expect a 4.2% of economic growth in 2021 under the assumption of a gradual recovery trend -35% on domestic demand starting in 2H21, potentially better contribution from net -40% -45% exports and the strong base effect in 2Q21. Current trends indicate upside risks and the YoY CPI figure could reach a peak around 16% in March-April. -50% We expect the YoY CPI could decrease to around 11.6% at the end of the -55% year, if the required level of tight monetary policy stance is sustained. We -60% could see a limited hike on the policy rate probably in January (or till April). Feb.17 Feb.18 Feb.19 Feb.20 Nov.16 Nov.17 Nov.18 Nov.19 May.16 Aug.16 May.17 Aug.17 May.18 Aug.18 May.19 Aug.19 May.20 On the other hand, we expect measurable cuts in the policy rate could start Aug.20 in June, parallel to the expected disinflation process and the policy rate could Discount to EM Average 2 Std. Dev.(+) 2 Std. Dev.(-) decline to 13.5% at the end of the year. Turkey’s three-year average economic growth performance is estimated to be around 1.8% during 2018- 2020 period, in the aftermath of robust 2017 performance taking a toll on 12 exchange rate dynamics later on. Hence, we believe the sustainability of the 11 10 economic growth rather than the numerical level would be much more important, when we take into consideration the current difficulties on the 9 employment, inflation, and current account outlook (Details on Page 3-5). 8 7 Our revised estimates and valuations point to BIST-100 target of 1,750 6 (previously 1,510); indicating 13% upside potential remaining. If this past 5 year has taught us anything, the path to economic recovery is hardly a Jul.16 Jul.17 Jul.18 Jul.19 Jul.20 Oct.16 Oct.17 Oct.18 Oct.19 Oct.20 Apr.16 Apr.17 Apr.18 Apr.19 Apr.20 Jan.16 Jan.17 Jan.18 Jan.19 smooth ride with no setbacks. Flush with liquidity and low interest rates, Jan.20 equity market has rallied strongly on assumptions for a blue sky scenario this MSCI TR P/E Average P/E year. We would like to underline the risk of macro prudential measures being implemented create risks around earnings recovery, while carrying a certain level of uncertainty whether key objectives of lower inflation, C/A deficit and high GDP growth can be reached. Given this background, we recommend following a strictly bottom-up, valuation based approach while investing at BIST at the current levels. 2021E P/E is 8.5x on our estimates and 7.5x, according to consensus, while the discount to EM average has narrowed down to its historical average. We rate all banks under our coverage as Market Perform at this point. Sector’s current valuation multiples look very attractive from a historical standpoint, but we see significant earnings pressures until 2H21, due to a combination of higher rates and elevated cost of risk. Our Top Picks is GARAN on strength of capital, profitability and ample free provision buffers (Pages 10-11) . Non-bank valuations indicate 12% overall upside potential. We estimate aggregate revenues of non-financials would grow 30% in 2021E, following a modest increase of 3% in 2020. Rebound in commodity-related sectors, weak base due to lockdowns in 2020 and higher FX rates on average would be drivers of top-line growth in 2021. We estimate aggregate earnings to drop 31% with FX losses pressuring bottom-lines in 2020E, while seeing a strong recovery of 102% in earnings growth for 2021E thanks to the favorable base effects. Our Top-Picks among non-financial names are TUPRS, KRDMD, TKFEN, ARCLK, MPARK, AEFES, PGSUS, TAVHL, ALARK, MGROS and MAVI (replaces EKGYO, Details on Page 2). 1 Genel / Public Adding MAVI. The Company would be one of the beneficiaries of the re-opening of the economy, and the base affect should support growth throughout 2021. Coupled with the healthy balance sheet, we expect MAVI to rapidly increase its bottom line in 2021. We have a Market Outperform rating for the stock with TL71/shr TP and 31% upside. The stock trades at 14x 2021E P/E and 4.4x 2021 EV/EBITDA, which imply respective discounts of 60% and 44% to its international peers. Ticker MAVI Multiples 2020E 2021E 2022E P/E 45.5 14.4 10.8 Rating Outperform EV/EBITDA 7.9 4.7 3.8 Target Price (new) 71.00 Estimates (TLmn) 2020E 2021E 2022E Target Price (previous) 68.50 Revenues 2,491 3,117 3,831 Current Price 54.20 EBITDA 405 674 833 Upside Potential 31% Net Income 59 187 249 Removing EKGYO. We are taking profits at this point and remove EKGYO from our model portfolio. We believe possible further increase in mortgage rates and ongoing Covid-19 restrictions pose a risk on unit sales. Potential increase in receivables via sales financed by the Company itself in this increasing rate environment remains as a risk factor on cash flow generation. Hence, we downgrade the stock to Market Perform on limited upside potential with a TP of TL2.9. The stock appreciated by 28% since our inclusion on November 17, while outperforming BIST-100 by 4% YF Research Model Portfolio Yatırım Finansman - Model Portfolio Performance Stocks Price (TL) Market Cap. (million) Inclusion Return since Inclusion Company Ticker Last Target Upside TL US$ Date Relative Absolute Tekfen Holding TKFEN 18.60 24.00 29% 6,882 922 24-Nov-20 3% 21% Tupras TUPRS 109.40 142.00 30% 27,396 3,672 22-Dec-20 -5% 4% Pegasus Hava Tasimaciligi PGSUS 73.25 92.20 26% 7,493 1,004 04-Dec-20 -1% 15% Tav Havalimanlari TAVHL 21.94 28.60 30% 7,970 1,068 10-Nov-20 3% 29% Alarko Holding ALARK 9.48 12.25 29% 4,124 553 21-May-20 27% 91% Migros MGROS 44.16 58.40 32% 7,995 1,072 09-Jun-20 -8% 31% Arcelik ARCLK 33.34 37.00 11% 22,529 3,020 27-Jul-20 15% 49% Emlak G.M.Y.O. EKGYO 2.45 2.90 18% 9,310 1,248 17-Nov-20 4% 28% Kardemir (D) KRDMD 6.41 7.80 22% 5,001 670 17-Nov-20 21% 49% Anadolu Efes Biracilik AEFES 26.50 32.90 24% 15,691 2,103 23-Oct-20 -11% 16% Medical Park Saglik Hizmetleri MPARK 22.52 30.75 37% 4,685 628 11-Jan-21 0% 1% Model Portfolio Performance - Equally Weighted Model Portfolio return since the last rebalance* 1.1% BIST100 return since last rebalance* 0.6% Model Portfolio Relative return since the last rebalance* 0.6% Model Portfolio Return Year-to-date 7.5% BIST100 Return Year-to-Date 4.9% Model Portfolio Relative Performance Year-to-date 2.4% *Since the last re-balance on January 11th 2021 2 Genel / Public 2021 Macroeconomic Outlook: Still misty, but familiar now Global recovery seems on track in 2021, after the sharp contraction in 2020. Uncertainties related with the pandemic, which was the worst global crisis since WWII, could prevail to a certain extent in 2021 as well. According to the IMF forecasts, global economy recorded a contraction of 4.4% in 2020 but would grow by 5.2% in 2021. Base effect, progress in controlling the pandemic and expansionary measures taken in monetary and fiscal policy fronts could be seen the key drivers of the recovery expectation. The projections of the developed country central banks indicate that the global financial environment would continue to support the global risk appetite, at least for a while. Stabilization need for Turkey. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) had started make front- loaded cuts in the policy rate in 3Q19 after 3-quarter long contraction from 4Q18 to 2Q19 and disinflation process. Pandemic has occurred at the initial period of the recovery trend because of the front-loaded cuts. The CBRT continued to deliver policy rate cuts during March-May of 2020, which had started in July 2019, in order to limit the negative impacts of the pandemic. In addition, the Bank implemented a comprehensive set of measures within the framework of liquidity management (temporarily increase the bond portfolio, targeted liquidity facilities to banks, etc.). Meanwhile, the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BRSA) introduced an Asset Ratio rule (terminated as of Dec. 31, 2020), effective from the beginning of May, with a view to encouraging banks to extend loans to residents and purchase securities. Especially the strong loan growth trend has made a positive economic growth performance possible for Turkey in 2020. However, this situation leaded to significant side-effects on the price and financial stability and caused need for stabilization. Sustainability of the economic growth would be followed. We estimate that the economic growth was 1.6% in 2020 thanks to the strong loan growth. The recovery trend continues despite tighter financial conditions and momentum losses. We expect a 4.2% of economic growth in 2021 under the assumption of a gradual recovery trend on domestic demand starting in 2H21, potentially better contribution from net exports and the strong base effect in 2Q21.
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