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09.08.16 Focusingthebrand V3 Point ofview Focusing the Brand for the Coming Recovery CONSUMER Is there a glimmer of light on the horizon? Perhaps. There are GOODS certainly glimmers of optimism that the worst recession since SECTOR the 1930’s1 may be abating, yet unemployment is still on the increase and consumer spending continues to be noticeably down, wreaking havoc on economies and confounding Marketers. The ultimate outcome and timeframe may still be uncertain, but what is clear is that this recession is not merely deep; it is creating a sea-change in consumer behavior. By all accounts we are witnessing what economists term a ‘structural break’– a concept popularized by David Hendry meaning an unexpected shift in a macroeconomic time series.This break represents the discontinu- David Pring Executive Vice President, ity of a trend whose origin dates back to the post-war boom of Head of Global Client Development, the 1950s. While we will hopefully see a return to some measur- Ipsos Marketing, Consumer Goods Sector able degree of growth in the next year or so, the behavioral [email protected] changes are considerable such that traditional notions of consumer behavior and market segments may no longer be valid. The world that the Marketer is likely to find post-recession therefore may be very different from the one before. As Richard Rumelt cites in his paper Strategy in a Structural Break, “Old sources of competitive advantage weaken and new sources appear. Afterwards, upstarts can leap ahead of seemingly entrenched players.”2 He is not the only economist who points out that continuing to do things in the same way has proven unsuccessful, and that the traditional moves of reducing fixed costs, scope and variety are insufficient. What, then, can Marketers do to position their brands for growth in the coming recovery? August 2009 For more Ipsos Marketing POVs, visit www.ipsosmarketing.com/knowledgecenter © 2009, Ipsos Focusing the Brand for the Coming Recovery Look to New Horizons goods purchasing has begun to have a ripple effect In past recessions when sales and margins were in on once booming markets such as BRIC. decline, Marketers looked for tactical efficiencies, cut- The effect of the recession on the consumer mindset is ting back wherever possible and reducing advertising reflected in decreased levels of consumer confidence. and marketing spending. However, there is abundant Although consumer confidence has stabilized in the evidence that those companies that brand build, inno- past six months with around 29% of consumers saying vate, advertise and take a long-term perspective are the economic situation in their country is “very good” stronger and more successful as they or “somewhat good,”8 this reflects emerge from recession.3 According to “The consumer a drop from 54% from April 2007 John Quelch of the Harvard Business you thought to December 2008. One figure that School, “It is well documented that does not appear to have changed, brands that increase advertising dur- you knew, however, is the 73% of consumers ing a recession, when competitors are pre-recession, who have cut back on spending – cutting back, can improve market share can be almost with an average of 41% cutting back and return on investment at lower unrecognizable. on basic groceries. “Less,”“simplicity” cost during good economic times.”4 When times get and “essentials” are now the watch- Although there is certainly evidence words of the contemporary consumer. tough, people Marketers are noticing the shift – and of a number of blue chip companies re-examine old that have cut back on marketing taking action. For example, P&G’s costs, a July 2009 survey by the Fuqua habits and plans include focusing its advertising 9 School of Business of Duke University brand loyalties.” on the value message. projects marketing spending by — Best Global Brands, And, there is a realization that post- major US corporations to increase by BusinessWeek, 2008 modernist consumerism is now out- 1.1% compared with only 0.5% six of-hand and it is time to reel in the months ago.5 It would seem that companies may at excesses.This is not merely from an economic perspec- last be heeding, at least in part, to past experience tive, but also from the viewpoint of health and well- showing brands that change strategy, pander to short- ness, environmental sustainability and the financial term needs and reduce marketing expenditure increase crisis engendering “cutting back” as a new expression their likelihood of failure. One example is Unilever, of political correctness. In parallel, a finding that 40% who recently beat market expec tations with a rise in of consumers disagree that a company with a good quarterly sales, due in part to increased advertising reputation would not sell poor products,10 illustrates and promotion spending.6 that the events of the past years have rocked consumer confidence and trust. Prepare for a New World The reinstatement of consumer confidence will be As we pick up the pieces from the recession and enter lengthy and the recessionary mindset, one that focuses a period of recovery, Marketers can expect to be more on essential values, may therefore exist well challenged by new consumer mindsets and altered beyond economic recovery.“The consumer you thought brand landscapes. you knew, pre-recession, can be almost unrecogniz- Reassess the New, Post-Recession Consumer able. When times get tough, people re-examine old The Baby Boomers who benefited from, and have habits and brand loyalties.”11 driven, much of the prolonged economic prosperity Understand the Role of Value since the post-World War II era have been one of the key segments impacted by the economic crisis. The There is little doubt that the traditional brand is under core of solid consumer spending in decades past, they greater threat today than possibly ever before – espe- are now faced with modifying their retirement years to cially from private label brands. Mintel reports that in accommodate the new economic reality. At the other 2008 US private label food sales grew by 9.3% versus end of the age spectrum, Gen-Y is also far from immune: 4.5% for branded food product sales.12 And, while the their road to prosperity is by no means guaranteed. For trend is slowing somewhat, an 8.1% private label food example, under-25 year olds in the principal European growth rate is predicted for 2009. The phenomenon is countries are experiencing unemployment levels three widespread. The Ipsos Economic Crisis Monitor shows to four times higher than the general population.7 Nor that one third of French consumers expect to buy will growth in emerging economies pick up the slack major brands less often, while a similar number expect as much as was hoped, as a slowdown in consumer their purchase of private label brands to increase.13 –2– © 2009, Ipsos Focusing the Brand for the Coming Recovery Similar trends are seen for other developed markets, Figure 1 including the US, UK,Germany, Italy and Spain. Brand’s DNA It is not solely price that attracts consumers to private label brands. Neither is it just about what is inside the The Body of the Brand The Soul of the Brand package, although private label product quality has significantly improved in the last few years. Instead, it is about the total brand value experience. Costco, Trader Emotional Needs Functional Properties Feelings evoked by the Joe’s, Whole Foods, Aldi, Tesco (where 50% of its sales Competency of the brand: brand: How does the What is the brand good at? brand make the user feel/ are private label) and Wal-Mart (its “Great Value” brand what does the brand says it all) are examples of retailers that have trans- help the user to achieve? ferred significant parts of their own equity to the prod- ucts they sell. Add to this the behavioral, attitudinal Brand Image Personality Image of the brand: Character of the brand: and need state changes brought on by the recession What does the brand stand for/ What does the brand what kind of image does say about the user and the brand landscape is changing. the brand convey? of the brand? There is no more critical time than now for Marketers to truly diagnose how their brands are currently per- Brand equity is also conditioned by perceived price, ceived by consumers and, importantly, how they can be which in turn affects brand value and choice. It is positioned for future growth in the brave new world. therefore important to explore the role of price and how it relates to the body and soul drivers which a Establish What Drives the Brand brand can modify to improve its position. As has been Turning to more traditional analytic tools such as seen in the marketplace, several CPG companies have market analysis, attitude and usage studies and seg- struggled to determine whether to hold prices steady mentation research will not provide the complete during the recession or to play the price game and answer on how to grow a brand during recovery. adopt a more tactical approach. But how much consid- This is because such approaches generally reflect the eration has been given to the longer term post-reces- current and, more often, the past perspective and sion implications? A price reduction for a ‘quick-fix’ lack any predictive capability. Marketers really need increase in share is very attractive. It is the easiest to to know: implement with minimal cost involved – however, it may deteriorate profitability. Conversely, changes in • What truly drives the brand, and how this relates to brand positioning, although difficult to implement and current and future brand equity with associated, sometimes high, cost will likely have • The implications for customer loyalty, and how this longer term impact on brand loyalty.
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