Climate Prediction Center's Central America Hazards Outlook 2

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Climate Prediction Center’s Central America Hazards Outlook 23 – 29 September 2021

Abnormal dryness was observed across the western and eastern part of Honduras

1) A recovery from moisture deficit was observed over many local areas of central Nicaragua while abnormal dryness continues to prevail over eastern Honduras.

2) Suppressed rainfall for the past four weeks led to abnormal dryness across the western part of Honduras.

3) A progressive recovery was observed across western Peten Department of Guatemala. However, moisture deficits remain prevalent in the area

Below normal rainfall is expected over a major part of Guatemala, El Salvador during the outlook period

During the past week, light to moderate rainfall prevailed across far western Peten Department of Guatemala. Between 50-75mm of rain prevailed across southwestern Guatemala, southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. Between 25-50mm of rain prevailed over western Honduras while showers prevailed across eastern Honduras, northeastern Nicaragua, and Belize. Looking at the past 30-day performance, a significant decrease of moisture deficit was observed across western Peten Department of Guatemala even though some local areas exhibited moisture deficit. A cumulative of moisture deficit exceeding four weeks led to an abnormal dryness across western and eastern Honduras, this important suppressed rainfall could significantly impact crop activities across the region during the coming weeks. Despite a visible recovery over central Nicaragua, a small portion of northcentral Nicaragua observed a continuation of moisture deficit. The vegetation health index showed a deterioration of soil condition over central and western Honduras and central Nicaragua.

During the outlook period, 25-50mm of rain is expected over Belize, northern Honduras, Gulf of Belize, and eastern Guatemala. Between 50- 100mm of rain is expected across overall western Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, and the coastal areas of Nicaragua. Seasonable rainfall is expected across Panama and Costa Rica.

Week 1 GEFS Rainfall Total Forecast and CMORPH average total rainfall (mm) 22 September – 29 September 2021

Figure 1: Source NOAA / CPC

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