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24September 2020 India Daily INDIA DAILY September 24, 2020 India 23-Sep 1-day 1-mo 3-mo Sensex 37,668 (0.2) (2.9) 8.0 Nifty 11,132 (0.2) (2.9) 8.0 Contents Global/Regional indices Dow Jones 26,763 (1.9) (5.5) 5.2 Daily Alerts Nasdaq Composite 10,633 (3.0) (6.6) 7.3 Company alerts FTSE 5,899 1.2 (3.4) (3.7) Hindalco Industries: Scrap spreads rebound, Novelis margins to follow Nikkei 23,161 (0.8) 0.8 2.8 Hang Seng 23,743 0.1 (7.1) (4.2) Scrap spreads declined to three-year low in 1QFY21 amid lockdowns KOSPI 2,303 (1.3) (1.2) 6.5 Scrap spreads recover as supply returns with easing of lockdowns Value traded – India Novelis margins to witness a strong sequential recovery after a dip in Cash (NSE+BSE) 603 636 627 13,82 Derivatives (NSE) 25,701 8,912 1QFY21 7 Well-placed for earnings upgrade and re-rating; maintain BUY with Fair Deri. open interest 4,169 3,638 3,357 Value of Rs285 Sector alerts Forex/money market Gas Utilities: Blue sky turning cloudy Change, basis points 23-Sep 1-day 1-mo 3-mo Draft regulations allow third-party access at tariffs generating 12% post-tax Rs/US$ 73.7 7 (78) (202) RoCE 10yr govt bond, % 6.4 (1) 7 9 Steps forward to provide open access and effectively encourage Net investment (US$ mn) competition 22-Sep MTD CYTD Competition plausible from OMCs and other gas utilities; direct access for FIIs (241) 532 5,339 state-transport buses MFs (53) (763) 2,436 Top movers Material medium-term risks to CGD profits partly reflecting in recent de- Change, % rating of multiples Best performers 23-Sep 1-day 1-mo 3-mo Transportation: Domestic air travel: thoughts on recovery HCLT IN Equity 814 (0.8) 15.4 45.5 WPRO IN Equity 315 0.8 15.5 44.3 Share gains from rail continue post Covid, boosting the case of recovery in INFO IN Equity 1,020 1.2 7.6 42.8 volumes TECHM IN Equity 793 (0.9) 9.8 41.4 Profile of domestic air traveler comforts on recovery towards pre-Covid TTMT/A IN Equity 60 2.6 35.2 40.6 levels over time Worst performers Pace of recovery a trickier call; progress seen on rapid testing technique YES IN Equity 13 (0.4) (11.1) (51.4) may not be as relevant BHIN IN Equity 167 (7.5) (16.3) (28.4) IHFL IN Equity 152 (1.8) (25.1) (27.1) Indigo remains a reasonable bet in most scenarios of recovery HPCL IN Equity 177 (1.7) (16.2) (22.4) BHARTI IN Equity 434 (7.9) (17.7) (22.2) [email protected] Contact: +91 22 6218 6427 For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES. REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL. BUY Hindalco Industries (HNDL) Metals & Mining SEPTEMBER 23, 2020 UPDATE Scrap spreads rebound, Novelis margins to follow. Scrap spreads hit a three-year Sector view: Attractive low in 1QFY21 as lockdowns impacted availability, handling and scrap-processing plants in North America. Scrap spreads play a significant role in Novelis’ margins as scrap forms CMP (`): 165 60% of its raw material. With opening up of economies, scrap spreads have rebounded Fair Value (`): 285 to Jan 2020 levels and pent-up supply implies further upside. Recovery in auto volumes BSE-30: 37,668 and scrap spreads should elevate Novelis’ margins back to pre-Covid levels in 2HFY21. Hindalco Industries Stock data Forecasts/valuations 2020 2021E 2022E 52-week range (Rs) (high,low) 221-85 EPS (Rs) 17.8 16.2 26.7 Mcap (bn) (Rs/US$) 372/5.1 EPS growth (%) (28.2) (8.9) 65.1 ADTV-3M (mn) (Rs/US$) 3,001/41 P/E (X) 9.3 10.2 6.2 Shareholding pattern (%) P/B (X) 0.6 0.6 0.5 Promoters 34.7 EV/EBITDA (X) 5.4 6.2 4.6 FIIs 24.5 RoE (%) 6.8 6.0 9.2 MFs/BFIs 15.5/12.5 Div. yield (%) 0.6 0.6 0.6 Price performance (%) 1M 3M 12M Sales (Rs bn) 1,180 1,264 1,427 Absolute (16) 4 (17) EBITDA (Rs bn) 143 138 173 Rel. to BSE-30 (14) (2) (14) Net profits (Rs bn) 39 36 59 Scrap spreads declined to three-year low in 1QFY21 amid lockdowns Aluminum scrap generation and processing was severely hit in 1QFY21 amid bottlenecks in the recycling supply chain with (1) reduced inflow of used beverage cans/other scraps, (2) health concerns related to scrap handling and (3) suboptimal functioning of scrap yards. Lockdowns led to restocking of beverage cans and added to already robust demand. This in combination with 18% correction in aluminum price led to a 35% CYTD correction of scrap spreads to a three-year low of US$0.25/lb in May 2020. Scrap spreads recover as supply returns with easing of lockdowns Scrap spreads have now recovered back to US$0.4/lb or January 2020 level. The recovery is led by reopening of scrap deposit centers and higher aluminum prices. Many scrap deposit centers are now operating at 150% of usual run-rate and supply should further ease. UBC return rates are still below normal due to partial Covid-led restrictions. Recovery in industrial scrap generation should further elevate scrap spreads. In the medium to long term, we expect scrap to remain oversupplied in generating economies (America and Europe) due to China’s strategic restrictions on imports and keep scrap spreads robust. Novelis margins to witness a strong sequential recovery after a dip in 1QFY21 Novelis forms ~75% of HNDL’s EBITDA and its earnings are a combination of conversions and scrap spreads. Margins in 1QFY21 corrected to US$327/ton versus US$450/ton in 4QFY20 and US$445/ton in FY2020. The correction was led by a sharp decline in auto volumes (-50% yoy) and scrap spreads. Its auto volumes have returned to pre-Covid level in the US and China whereas Europe is recovering gradually. With recovery in auto volumes and scrap spreads, we expect margins to recover to FY2020 levels in 2HFY21. We forecast margin of US$376/ton in FY2021 and US$444/ton in FY2022 versus a guidance of US$450- Sumangal Nevatia 470/ton. Well-placed for earnings upgrade and re-rating; maintain BUY with Fair Value of Rs285 Prayatn Mahajan HNDL, post the recent correction, is trading at 4.6X EV/EBITDA FY2022E, 23% discount to long-term average of 6X. Current price implies Novelis business available at 4.2X EV/EBITDA FY2022E (refer to Exhibit 10) assuming India business at spot spreads and 5X EV/EBITDA. We maintain BUY rating with Fair Value of Rs285/share. HNDL offers the most attractive risk-reward within our metals coverage. [email protected] Contact: +91 22 6218 6427 For Private Circulation Only. FOR IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT KOTAK SECURITIES’ RATING SYSTEM AND OTHER DISCLOSURES, REFER TO THE END OF THIS MATERIAL. Hindalco Industries Metals & Mining Scrap spreads corrected sharply in April-May 2020 led by a combination of: 1. Lower scrap availability . UBC (used beverage can) was not coming at usual run-rate in the circular supply chain. Redemptions in key deposit stations of North America were impacted by Covid-19 and scrap yards were increasingly reluctant to handle UBCs for health concerns amid the pandemic. New production industrial scrap generation slowed. Auto scrap generation was shut off. Many scrap yards are either closed or operating with reduced hours, limited retail ‘peddler’ scrap coming in ‘over the scale’. 2. Lower aluminum prices. In April 2020, aluminum all in price collapsed to US$1,426/ton, -18% CYTD 2020. Historically, during down-trending aluminum prices, scrap spreads have always narrowed. This was due to scrap supply being more insulated from the volatility in primary metal and dealers’ unwillingness to follow LME and Midwest prices down as fast. In 2017 and 2018, however, this behavior was not visible which in our view was an aberration due to sudden oversupply of scrap. Scrap availability increased in 2017-18 due to sharp reduction in Chinese scrap imports, big increases in auto scrap and the departure of Alcoa/Arconic from the scrap markets at Knoxville. This impacted the market’s inability to absorb the additional supply of scrap. However, now, we see scrap prices reverting to normal behaviour and spreads showing positive correlation to aluminum prices. 3. Strong demand of aluminum beverage can. Demand of aluminum beverage can has shown recession-proof traits during GFC and the same was visible in 1HCY20. Aluminum beverage cans’ high share in ‘off-premise’ sales drove demand during lockdowns. A few industry reports suggest that aluminum beverage can has gained 7-8 percentage point market share from other substrates (glass and plastic) in 1HFY21 due to ‘on premise’ shutdowns amid the pandemic. KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH 3 Metals & Mining Hindalco Industries Exhibit 1: Novelis’ earnings are combination of scrap spreads and conversion margins Novelis EBITDA break-up Scrap Conversion Spreads Margin Novelis (~1/3rd (~2/3rd EBITDA earnings) earnings) Source: Kotak Institutional Equities estimates Exhibit 2: Novelis’s margins have a strong correlation with scrap spreads Novelis EBITDA/ton and scrap spreads,1QFY16-21, (US$/ton, US cents/lb) Novelis EBITDA/ton (US$/ton) (LHS) Scrap Spreads (c/lb) (RHS) 500 60 450 50 400 350 40 300 250 30 200 20 150 100 10 50 - - 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 2QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 3QFY19 4QFY19 1QFY20 2QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21 Source: Company, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates Exhibit 3: Scrap spreads have recovered to pre-Covid levels after a sharp drop in 1QFY21 UBC scrap spreads, 2QFY16 – 2QFY21 (US cents/lb) Scrap Spreads (US c/lb) 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 2QFY16 3QFY16 1QFY17 3QFY17 1QFY18 3QFY18 4QFY18 1QFY19 2QFY19 4QFY19 2QFY20 4QFY20 1QFY21 2QFY21 2QFY17 4QFY17 2QFY18 3QFY19 1QFY20 3QFY20 4QFY16 Source: Bloomberg, Kotak Institutional Equities estimates 4 KOTAK INSTITUTIONAL EQUITIES RESEARCH Hindalco Industries Metals & Mining Exhibit
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