Opportunities for Trans-boundary 3 Water Sharing in Th e Ganges, Th e Brahmaputra, and Th e Meghna Basins Mashfiqus Salehin, M. Shah Alam Khan, Anjal Prakash, and Chanda Gurung Goodrich

Introduction Th e huge system of the Ganges, the Brahmaputra, number of water management problems due to gross and the Meghna (GBM) basins, second only to that inequalities in the temporal and spatial distribution of of Amazon, is made up of the catchment areas of water, mainly fl oods, droughts, and dry season water 1.75 million km2 stretching across fi ve countries: scarcity. Th is poses a threat to infrastructure and prop- Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, and Nepal (Ahmad erties, irrigated agriculture, navigation, and ecosystem et al. 2001). While Bangladesh and India share all the sustenance. Management of water resources in the three river basins, China shares only the Brahmaputra region becomes all the more challenging because of the and the Ganges basins, Nepal only the Ganges basin, huge population, the anticipated population growth, and Bhutan, only the Brahmaputra basin (see Figure and the prevailing poverty situation. About 10 per cent 3.1 and Table 3.1). Th e three basins are distinctly dif- of the world’s population lives in this region, represent- ferent in characteristics; the three rivers originate and ing only 1.2 per cent of the world’s land mass (Biswas travel through diff erent physiographic units, and have 2008). geographically distinct catchment zones with dissimilar Th e development and management of the GBM valleys and drainage networks (Khan 2005). basins have been subject to a number of geopolitical Water is the single most important natural resource constraints in spite of having huge potential for being of the basin countries; the three river systems contrib- a great example of regional cooperation (Brichieri- ute an annual discharge of 1350 billion cubic metres Colombi and Bradnock 2003). Country-specifi c man- (BCM), of which the Ganges contributes about 500 agement options have led to water disputes, which are BCM, the Brahmaputra 700 BCM, and the Meghna ranked amongst the most well-known trans-boundary 150 BCM (Ahmad et al. 2001). Th e three major rivers water confl icts in the world. Attempts to solve these have always played pivotal roles in shaping the suste- disputes have been bilateral in nature, for example, the nance of life, living, and the environment. However, Ganges Water Treaty between India and Bangladesh, the countries sharing the GBM basins are beset by a and the Mahakali Treaty between India and Nepal. 30 India Infrastructure Report 2011

75 50 25 20 25 PAKISTAN Rivers International boundaries

CHINA 30

Ganga River Yamuna River NEPAL

Kamali R. Gandak R. R. BHUTAN Ramganga R. Bagdad R. Kosi Teesta R. Chambal R. BrahmaputraINDIA River Bahadurabad Ganges River 25 Betwa River Farakka Barrage Sona R. BANGLADESH Feedar Canal Mogra R. Jangpur Barriage Bharab Hardinga Bazar Bridge

INDIA Hooghly R.

Kolkata Gorai R. Ganges Basin MYANMAR Brahmaputra Basin Meghna Basin Bay of Bengal 20

Figure 3.1 Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna Basins Source: Rahaman (2005).

Table 3.1 Catchment Areas of the GBM Basins Country Ganges basin Brahmaputra basin Meghna basin Basin area Percentage of Basin area Percentage of Basin area Percentage of (1000 km2) total area (1000 km2) total area (1000 km2) total area China 33 3 293 50 Nepal 140 13 Bhutan 45 8 India 861 80 195 34 49 58 Bangladesh 46 4 47 8 36 42 Total 1,080 100 580 100 85 100 Source: Rangachari and Verghese (2001); Pun (2004).

Th ese are regarded by many as creating a climate of of fl ood forecasting and warning, between India and goodwill and mutual confi dence, and off ering a window Bhutan, India and Nepal, and India and Bangladesh. of opportunity for water-based collaborative develop- However, while so much more could have been done, ment endeavours in the region (Rahaman 2009). Th e achievements in terms of sharing, development, and close and friendly ties between Bhutan and India have management of water resources of these rivers as well as created a win–win situation for both countries in the sharing and exchange of information and data through hydropower sector. Besides, some bilateral cooperation mutual cooperation have not been encouraging thus is in place, through exchange of data for the purpose far (Biswas 2008; Khan 2005).Th e recent plans of river Opportunities for Trans-boundary Water Sharing in Th e Ganges, Th e Brahmaputra, and Th e Meghna Basins 31 linking and construction of Tipaimukh dam, without rivers, mainly Sapta-Kosi, Gandaki, Karnali, and consensus among riparian countries, have generated Mahakali, causing immense damage in the terai area considerable concerns in Bangladesh and also widely in of Nepal (and also in adjacent areas of India). Besides, India. It is important to recognize that water resources frequent rockslides and landslides aggravate the fl ood- must be developed and managed in a rational, effi cient ing and river erosion problems. Unreliable river fl ows and equitable way, so that it can act as the engine to coupled with ineffi cient management have been aff ect- promote socio-economic development, shaping the ing the performance of irrigation systems and indus- future of millions of people living in this region (Biswas trial pollution has been leading to deteriorating water and Uitto 2001). A number of studies and syntheses quality. of information have demonstrated that trans-boundary In India, fl oods aff ect, on an average, about 7.5 cooperation in integrated water management in the million hectares of area per year (Ministry of Water GBM basins can off er these countries greater benefi ts Resources [MoWR] 2002). Of the total estimated than those that can be achieved through isolated fl ood prone area in India, 68 per cent lies in the GBM national eff orts (Ahmad and Ahmed 2003; Ahmad states, mostly in Assam, West Bengal, Bihar, and Uttar et al. 2001; Gyawali 2001). Pradesh. Th e Ganges in northern India, which receives water from its northern tributaries originating in the Himalayas, has a high fl ood damage potential, espe- Water Resources Management cially in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Th e unequal spatial Issues in GBM Basins distribution of rainfall means that the fl ows in many Th ere are a number of common water resource man- of the rivers in north-western, western, and southern agement issues for all countries in the GBM basins. Th e parts are considerably less than the Himalayan parts, river systems exhibit wide variations between peak and rendering the areas water stressed. One-sixth area of the lean fl ows as the major part of the basins belongs to the country is drought-prone (MoWR 2002). Other water monsoon region, where 80 to 90 per cent of annual management problems in India include degrading water rainfall is concentrated in 4–5 months of the South- quality mainly due to industrial and domestic wastes West monsoon. While excessive precipitation in these (Adhikari et al. 2000), and arsenic contamination of months is the main reason for recurrent fl oods, which groundwater in many parts of the northern states, par- cause damage to life, property, and infrastructure, the ticularly West Bengal. unequal temporal distribution of rainfall creates the Bangladesh, being the lowest riparian with only 7 problem of low water availability during the dry season per cent of the country lying in the GBM basins and and unequal spatial distribution creates water stressed with extensive fl oodplain topography bears the major conditions in some parts of the basin. Future climate brunt of widespread fl ooding. About 91 per cent change impacts may aggravate this situation further. of fl ood fl ows in Bangladesh enter from upstream Th e GBM river systems carry up to one and a half catchments in India through 54 border rivers (Rashid billion tons of sediments per year that originate in the 1991); the entire volume of the GBM river systems, foothills of the Himalayas (Ahmad and Ahmed 2003; about 142,000 cubic meters per second at peak periods Biswas 2008). Th e high rate of sedimentation of the (Rahman et al. 1990), discharges into the Bay of major rivers and their tributaries has been aff ecting Bengal through a single outlet at the Lower Meghna in not only the carrying capacity of the rivers but has also Bangladesh. Besides, the country is beset by fl ash fl oods drastically reduced their retention capacity, thus often in the northern and north-eastern hilly streams, and compounding the adverse eff ects of fl oods. tidal fl oods and occasional cyclonic storm-surge fl oods Major water management problems in Nepal in- in the coastal region. Th e country suff ers from moderate clude fl oods in hill valleys due to sudden cloud bursts to severe droughts spreading over 10 districts; very low over several days, fl oods in the mountains induced by dry season water availability in the southwest region glaciers, termed glacier lake outburst fl oods (GLOF) due to upstream withdrawal of water at Farakka, and (Bangladesh–Nepal Joint Study Team 1989; Ahmad associated increased salinity intrusion and threatened et al. 2001), and overbank monsoon fl ooding from agriculture and ecosystem including the Sundarbans; 32 India Infrastructure Report 2011 river erosion (including riverbank, char, and coastal countries for sharing the waters of international rivers; erosion) along about 75 rivers; degrading water establishment of a system for exchange of information quality due to industrialization in urban areas along and data on relevant aspects of hydrology, morphology, major rivers; and widespread arsenic contamination of water pollution, and ecology; joint assessment of the groundwater (Chowdhury et al. 1997; Water Resources international rivers for better understanding of the Planning Organization [WARPO] 2001). potentials of the overall basins; and harnessing, develop- In Bhutan, the water management problems include ing, and sharing the water resources to mitigate fl oods mounting pressure on the water resources due to com- and augment fl ows of water during the dry season. Th e peting demands from diff erent users, seasonal and local policy gives directions on comprehensive development imbalances of fl ows, localized and seasonal water short- and management of the main rivers through a system ages for drinking and agricultural purposes, and rising of barrages and other structural and non-structural fl uctuation between lean season and monsoon season measures, and development of water resources of the fl ows, leading to sub-optimal utilization of generating major rivers for multipurpose use. capacity of hydropower plants, and GLOFs. Besides, Th e Water Resources Strategy (WRS) of 2002 and increasing sediment loads in rivers are aff ecting the the National Water Plan (NWP) (WECS 2006) of 2005 expected output and economic life of the hydropower of Nepal ask for river basins to be treated as fundamen- plants, as well as causing fl oods and landslides (Bhutan tal planning entities. Both the Strategy and the Plan Water Partnership 2003). emphasize, among others, cost-eff ective hydropower development for domestic use and export, enhanced Policies and Plans water-related information systems, regional/bilateral Water resources management in any country is gener- cooperation framework/norms for substantial mutual ally governed by its policy directions, which are mani- benefi ts, and appropriate institutional mechanisms for fested in its national water policy document. National water resources management. Sharing of water resources water policies provide the basis for formulating water benefi ts among the riparian countries on equitable basis, management strategies and national water management establishment and enhancement in cooperation with plans. An examination of the national water policies of neighbouring countries in data exchange and informa- the GBM countries is imperative since it would shed tion systems, encouragement of joint investigation into light on the position of these countries with respect to GLOF with China, and promotion of international regional cooperation. cooperation for fl ood forecasting and warning system, Th e Indian Water Policy (MoWR 2002) envisions are underscored in the policy for mutual benefi ts. the river basin as a hydrological unit for water resources Th e National Water Policy of 2003 of Bhutan development and management and river basin organi- (Bhutan Water Partnership 2003) also considers water zations are given utmost importance in the context of resources management to be based on natural river planning for development and management of projects basins, and hence highlights the need for appropriate in a river basin as a whole or sub-basins, wherever institutional structures at the basin level. Th e policy necessary. Th e policy places emphasis on improving recognizes the tremendous potential of hydropower for effi ciency of water use through traditional water conser- socio-economic development as well as its potential for vation practices such as rainwater harvesting, including earning revenues from exports. As articulated in the roof-top harvesting. Th e policy also highlights the need policy, trans-boundary water issues are to be dealt with for non-traditional practices, for example, inter-basin in accordance with international law and conventions water transfers, artifi cial recharge of groundwater, and to which Bhutan is a signatory and taking into consid- desalination of brackish or sea water. eration the integrity of the rivers as well as the legitimate Th e National Water Policy of Bangladesh (MoWR water needs of riparian states. Cooperation in informa- 1999) articulates the need to undertake essential steps tion sharing and exchange, appropriate technology in for realizing basin-wide planning for development water resources development and management, fl ood of the resources of rivers entering its borders. Th e warning, and disaster management are to be initiated endeavours will include: agreements with co-riparian at the national, regional, and global levels. Opportunities for Trans-boundary Water Sharing in Th e Ganges, Th e Brahmaputra, and Th e Meghna Basins 33

While the water policies/strategic plans of the co- continuing for two important projects, Pancheshwar riparian countries draw heavily upon the concept of Multi-purpose Project on river Mahakali (Sarda in integrated water resources management, and articulate India) and Sapta-Kosi High Dam on Kosi River and the need for basin-wide management of water resources, Sun Kosi Storage cum Diversion Scheme. there are obvious diff erences in each country’s stance on a number of issues. Th e Indian Water Policy does not Mahakali Treaty and the Pancheswar Project touch upon regional cooperation with other riparian Th e Mahakali Treaty signed between India and Nepal countries or sharing the basins for mutual benefi ts. Shar- in January 1996 includes three components: the Sarada ing or distribution of water is discussed when it comes Barrage, the Tanakpur Barrage, and the Pancheshwar down to allocation among states that share a particular Project. While the fi rst two projects have already been basin. Regional cooperation received foremost recogni- executed by India at Mahakali on the Indo-Nepal Border, tion in the water policy of Bangladesh, with exchange the Pancheshwar Project involves new construction of and sharing of information and data, and joint assess- a 315 metre high dam called the Pancheshwar on the ment of the basins’ potentials being among the major Mahakali. Th e project is expected to generate 6480 objectives outlined in the policy. Nepal too recognizes MW of power for supply to India’s northern power the potential for sharing water resources ‘benefi ts’ on grid and to also provide the Gangetic plains with equitable terms, and seeks to enhance regional coopera- large volumes of regulated waters for irrigation. Th e tion in sharing and exchange of data, and improving provisions of the treaty constitute that India is willing disaster forecasting and warning systems. Th e water to join hands with Nepal in the development of water policy of Bhutan expresses similar pledges with regards resources for the common benefi t for her people, and to regional cooperation. according to the principles of equity (Uprety 2006). Th e Treaty incorporated some principles to accommodate History of Regional Cooperation the divergent needs and interests of both riparian Th ere has been a history of confl icts in the GBM basins, countries. but there has also been a history of attempts (bilateral Implementation of the treaty has faced a great deal of in nature) to resolve these confl icts. Th is shows that, diffi culty. Th e treaty was met with resistance in Nepal, in spite of a signifi cant number of confl icting issues in and was ultimately passed with specifi c strictures or the region, compounded by the geopolitical complex- conditions. Disputes still exist on the issues of defi ning ity (for example, imbalance in hegemony or economic consumptive use of the countries and fi xing the selling power among the countries), the countries did at least price of Nepal’s excess share of electricity to India. In show interest in cooperation to resolve issues. addition, the treaty enactment is also contingent on the completion of the Detailed Project Report (DPR) for Nepal–India Water Cooperation the Pancheshwar Project. A separate commission was Th e water sharing disputes between Nepal and India formed for this project, and it was only in 2010 that date back to early twentieth century, and attempts to the environmental impact assessment was prepared. resolve the issues started with the Sarda Barrage Agree- During the second meeting of the Joint Standing ment in 1920, followed by several agreements through Technical Committee (JSTC) held on 30–31 March 1950s (Kosi river agreement in 1954; Gandak agree- 2010, it was decided to prepare a defi nite work plan ment in 1959). However, the story of success was far along with the cost estimates to undertake the identifi ed from being smooth; and the agreements were viewed fi eld works within two months so that decisions could be by Nepalese people as favouring India (Uprety 2006; taken regarding funding (Central Electricity Authority Salman and Uprety 2002; Biswas 2008). More recently, [CEA] 2011). a number of Water Resources Development projects have been executed by India in cooperation with Nepal Sapta-Kosi High Dam Project and Sun Kosi on rivers common to both the countries and a number Storage cum Diversion Scheme of projects are also under negotiation with Nepal. Th e For Sapta-Kosi High Dam Project and Sun Kosi Storage Mahakali Treaty has been signed, and negotiations are cum Diversion Scheme, the Government of Nepal 34 India Infrastructure Report 2011 submitted an inception report in 1992. Crucial issues attempted. During the next phase of discussions were discussed in the meeting of the Indo-Nepal Joint (1977–82), a fi ve-year water sharing agreement was Team of Experts held in 1997. A Joint Project Team signed between the two countries with an understand- was formed for assessing the work load and preparing ing of augmenting the Ganges fl ows at Farakka. A the estimates for investigations. Th e administrative joint committee, Joint River Commission (JRC), was approval and expenditure sanction have been conveyed established under the agreement clause, which would by India for carrying out fi eld investigations, studies be responsible for observing and recording at Farakka, and preparation of DPR of the Sapta-Kosi High Dam the daily fl ows below Farakka Barrage and in the feeder Multipurpose Project and Sun Kosi Storage cum canal in India, as well as Hardinge Bridge point in Diversion Scheme jointly with Nepal by February 2013 Bangladesh, and for implementing the water sharing (CEA 2011). arrangements and examining any diffi culty arising out of the implementation of the sharing arrangement and Bangladesh–India Water Cooperation of the operation of the Farakka Barrage. A mechanism Th e major issues to be resolved between Bangladesh was provided for the settlement of disputes. Th e agree- and India are the ones of sharing water of the common ment also instructed the JRC to look into a long-term rivers. Th e major dispute has been on the sharing of the solution of the dry season fl ow augmentation of the Ganges water during the lean period since the Indian Ganges water. Th e fl ow augmentation proposal from plan for construction of Farakka barrage has been the Bangladesh side included the construction of stor- implemented. age reservoirs in Nepal to harness the monsoon fl ows upstream, which would also facilitate hydropower gen- Ganges Water Treaty eration. Th e proposal from India included import of In 1961, the Indian government decided to construct water from the Brahmaputra through a 209-mile long a barrage across the Ganges river at Farakka, 11 miles link canal connecting the proposed Jogighopa barrage upstream from the border with East Pakistan (later across the Brahmaputra in Assam and the Farakka barrage Bangladesh), to divert water to the Hooghly river to (Asafuddowlah and Khondker 1994). A memoran- solve the siltation problems at the Calcutta port. Th e dum of understanding (MoU) was signed in 1982 to Pakistan government protested with an argument that extend the 1977 agreement excluding the ‘guarantee adequate amount of fl ow did not exist in the Ganges clause’,1 which fi nally expired in 1988 after two similar to meet the water demands of both countries and that extensions. Negotiations for a permanent water shar- fl ow diversion from the main channel of the Ganges ing agreement continued in the subsequent years would result in adverse impact on the agriculture, ecol- while both the countries focused more on the national ogy, and economy of East Pakistan (Crow et al. 1995). river development initiatives including river linking Construction of the barrage with a diversion capac- projects and barrages on the Teesta, Ganges, and the ity of 40,000 cubic feet per second of fl ow was com- Brahmaputra. After a period (1989–96) without any pleted in 1975, after the independence of Bangladesh agreement, the Ganges Water Treaty was signed be- in 1971, and a new phase of negotiations (1971–7) tween the two governments in 1996 to share the dry focussed on dry season fl ow division. During this period, season fl ow of the Ganges and to seek ways for fl ow a 40-day interim agreement for water sharing was also augmentation.

1 In the 1977 agreement, the Ganges water sharing at Farakka from the 1 January to 31 May every year was based on 75 per cent availability calculated from the recorded fl ows of the Ganges at Farakka from 1948 to 1973. Th e actually available fl ow was divided on a 10-day basis between Bangladesh and India in an overall ratio of about 60 per cent for Bangladesh and about 40 per cent for India. If during a particular 10-day period the fl ow at Farakka came down to such a level that the actual share of Bangladesh would be lower than 80 per cent of the share calculated in the agreement for that 10-day period, this minimum fl ow would be released to Bangladesh during that 10-day period. Th us this clause guaranteed Bangladesh a minimum of 80 per cent of its share during each period whatever low the fl ow of the Ganges during that period. Th is is widely known as the 80 per cent ‘guarantee clause’. Opportunities for Trans-boundary Water Sharing in Th e Ganges, Th e Brahmaputra, and Th e Meghna Basins 35

Although the main purpose of water diversion at rivers have been drafted, which might be signed by the Farakka was to improve siltation and navigation prob- end of 2011. lems at the Calcutta port, Crow et al. (1995) indicate that the effi cacy of the project was technically doubt- Bhutan–India Water Cooperation ful due to uncertainties in assessment of the fl ow and Th e regional cooperation between India and Bhutan sedimentation processes in the lower Hooghly. Sir has worked very well, with India, which has a power Arthurs Cotton’s concerns in 1853 regarding the shortage, providing both technical and fi nancial as- consequences of large-scale water diversion from the sistance to develop numerous hydropower projects in Ganges were not considered during implementation of Bhutan. India benefi ts from Bhutan’s hydroelectric the project. It was rather a political decision to proceed energy resource to meet a part of its huge power de- with the project. mand while Bhutan benefi ts from the revenues earned Th e Ganges Treaty did improve the fl ow into from the export of power. Th e hydropower cooperation Bangladesh, but it was lower than the fl ow that was between Bhutan and India started with the signing available during earlier agreement periods, and lower of the Jaldhaka agreement in 1961. Th e development by a considerable extent, for example, 40 per cent of of fi rst major hydroelectric project started in 1974 natural state during March and April, as analysed by when a bilateral agreement was signed between India Chowdhury (2005) and Chowdhury and Datta (2004). and Bhutan for the construction of the 336 MW A recent concern is that Bangladesh is getting lower Chukhahydel project across river Wangchu in Western volume of water than it should get as per the Treaty. Bhutan for meeting internal power demand and export- One of the reasons is the decrease in fl ows arriving at ing the surplus electricity to India (Biswas 2008). Th e Farakka because of upstream water uses (Chowdhury project was commissioned in 1986–88. A number of 2005). Although it seems unlikely that the fl ows to be mini and medium sized hydropower projects followed in received as per the Treaty would solve the water crisis in later years. Th e Tala hydroelectric project of 1020 MW the dry season in the southwest region and recover its installed capacity and 860 metres gross head has been lost resources, it has ushered in a new era of cooperation recently completed (Tshering and Tamang 2004). between Bangladesh and India. Th is 30-year long Th e cooperation between Bhutan and India has Treaty has provided Bangladesh an opportunity for also been with respect to the establishment of hydro- environmental restoration of the Ganges Dependent meteorological and fl ood forecasting network on riv- Area (GDA) (WARPO 2002). ers common to India and Bhutan. A scheme titled ‘Comprehensive Scheme for Establishment of Hydro- Negotiations for Other Trans-boundary Rivers meteorological and Flood Forecasting Network on India and Bangladesh share 54 rivers, however, the Rivers Common to India and Bhutan’ is in operation. Ganges Treaty is the only water sharing agreement that Th e network consists of 35 hydro-meteorological/ exists today between Bangladesh and India. Article IX meteorological stations located in Bhutan and be- of the Ganges Treaty stipulated that, guided by the ing maintained by the Royal Government of Bhutan principle of equity, fairness, and no harm to either with funding from India. Th e data received from these party, both Bangladesh and India would conclude water stations are utilized in India by the Central Water Com- sharing treaties/agreements with regard to other trans- mission for formulation of fl ood forecasts. A Joint Expert boundary or common rivers. Th e Joint Committee Team (JET) consisting of offi cials from the Government formed after the signing of the Treaty to implement this of India and Royal Government of Bhutan continu- had prioritized seven rivers at the initial stage, viz. the ously reviews the progress and other requirements of the Teesta, Dharla, Dudhkumar, Manu, Khowai, Gumti, scheme (National Portal of India 2011). and Muhuri rivers. Later the JRC recognized that the long-term sharing of waters for the Feni river should Water Management Interventions also be examined along with the other seven rivers. and Regional Implications Recent media reports in both Bangladesh and India Water management interventions in the GBM basins suggest that sharing agreements for Teesta and Feni have already altered the natural fl ow distributions and 36 India Infrastructure Report 2011 have largely challenged the opportunities for trans- the National Water Development Agency (NWDA) boundary and regional water sharing. Th e following envisages achievement of food security and self- sub-sections summarize the major water management suffi ciency by increasing area of arable land, increase interventions and their regional implications. in electricity production, and reduction of reliance on coal as an energy source, as well as moderation of Ganges Water Diversion fl oods, especially in the Ganges basin. Th e Himalayan Ganges water diversion at Farakka has caused adverse component of the NRLP, consisting of 14 links, will impacts in the Ganges dependent areas in the lowest have storage reservoirs on the main Ganges and the riparian country Bangladesh (see Hoque et al. 1996; Brahmaputra rivers and their principal tributaries in Crow et al. 1995; Asafuddowlah and Khondker 1994; India, Nepal, and Bhutan. Links of this component will Richardson 1994; Simons 1994; and Abbas 1984). transfer surplus fl ows of the Kosi, Gandak, and Ghagra Crow et al. (1995) present a detailed cause-and- to the west, and augment fl ows of the Ganges. Inter- eff ect diagram to explain the short and long-term linking of the Ganges and Yamuna are anticipated to consequences of fl ow diversion. Th e more direct conse- transfer the surplus fl ow to the drought prone areas of quences include changes in the hydraulic, hydrological, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Gujarat. Th e component is and morphological characteristics of the Ganges and also expected to provide irrigation benefi ts to large areas its distributaries, resulting in a drastic decline in the in south Uttar Pradesh and south Bihar (Sarma 2003). river stage. Th is, in turn, has caused excessive siltation Detailed information on the links compiled from in the rivers, formation of new charlands, and reduc- diff erent sources (for example, Government of Bihar tion in conveyance capacity. Th e off take of the Gorai, [GoB] 2003; NWDA 2005) can be found in SANDRP the main distributary of the Ganges in Bangladesh, is (2007). Th e peninsular component of the NRLP will blocked in the dry season due to siltation. Apart from consist of 16 links proposed by the NWDA. adversely aff ecting navigational and industrial water Th e NRLP has faced a lot of review and scrutiny availability, the reduced dry season fl ow has also caused within India. Most ‘donor’ states have posed against water shortage for irrigation. One of the largest irri- the project although the confl ict between ‘donor’ and gation projects in Bangladesh, the Ganges—Kobadak ‘receiver’ states has not been a major issue. Major Project, was shut down several times due to the drop in opposition emanated from a large number of observa- water levels. Th e decline in dry season river water level tions raised by the prominent water professionals across has also caused lowering of the groundwater level and India (for example, see Iyer 2003; Bandyopadhyay and aff ected the year-round water balance. Reduction in Perveen 2002; and Singh 2003). A letter and a memo- river fl ow has caused the salinity front (both surface and randum signed by 58 eminent professionals were sent groundwater) to move further inland, resulting in crop to the prime minister to reconsider the project (ibid.). damage, water shortage for drinking and industries, Th e validity of the basic principle of having ‘surplus’ and adverse health eff ects. Reduced river fl ow and water in some rivers, on which the NRLP was concep- increased salinity have caused changes in the hydro- tualized, was questioned by some researchers on the ecological condition in the lower reaches of the Ganges argument of the need for a balance between the natural and its distributaries. Consequently, there have been fl ow and ecosystem requirement (Bandyopadhyay and major adverse impacts on the ecosystems, fi sheries, Perveen 2002). Drought mitigation is seen to be a forestry, and livelihoods. local problem requiring local solutions. External water transfer will address only a small part of the arid re- River Linking Project in India gions leaving out most areas for augmentation of local Th e National River Linking Project (NRLP) of India resources. While effi cacy of the project in fl ood control aims at transferring water from the Ganges and remains doubtful, large-scale constructions under the Brahmaputra basins to the water defi cit areas of western NRLP including big dams, reservoirs, and conveyance and southern India. Th e overall goals of the NRLP are systems are likely to cause substantial environmental to increase irrigation potential, increase hydropower impacts and displacement problems. At the same time, production, and control fl oods. Th rough this project the value of traditional water management systems and Opportunities for Trans-boundary Water Sharing in Th e Ganges, Th e Brahmaputra, and Th e Meghna Basins 37 demand management through effi cient water use may Bangladesh, fl ow alteration of the Barak will adversely be undermined (Iyer 2003; Singh 2003). aff ect the biodiversity of the freshwater wetlands Bangladesh, being the lowest riparian country, is (haors), increase the probability of fl ash fl oods that likely to face adverse impacts on hydraulics and river cause damage to the Boro rice, and retard the drainage morphology, water resources, agriculture, domestic of wetlands in the post-monsoon season. Implementa- water supply, fi sheries, forestry, navigation, industry, tion of the project will alter the natural fl ow regimes, biodiversity, and socio-economy. Chowdhury (2005) water quality, nutrient and sediment load, temperature, indicates that large-scale modifi cations may occur in salinity level. Consequently, fi sh spawning routes and the temporal distributions of the Brahmaputra and the habitats, and wetland ecosystems and biodiversity may Ganges. Reduced fl ow in the Lower Meghna as a result be severely aff ected. of reduction in Brahmaputra fl ow will increase salinity intrusion in the Lower Meghna, with a disastrous pos- Water Diversion Plan from the Tibetan Plateau sibility of salinity intrusion into the freshwater wetland in China (locally called haor) ecosystem. Chowdhury (2005) Th e Chinese government has been considering a also indicates problems of storing water in the wet plan to dam or redirect the southward fl ow of water season, and transferring water from one basin to an- from the Tibetan plateau, the starting point of many other during diff erent fl ood phases. Khalequzzaman et international rivers, including major rivers like the al. (2004) estimate that very low fl ow remaining in the Brahmaputra, the Yangtze, and the Mekong. In the Brahmaputra following withdrawal during the lean sea- context of trans-boundary fl ow in South Asia, the son will cause detrimental eff ects on the environment important rivers include the Brahmaputra, the Indus, and ecosystem of the downstream areas in Bangladesh. the Sutlej, the Arun, and the Karnali. Th e plan includes Reduction in the Ganges fl ow due to transfer of Ganges diverting the waters of the Yangtze, the Yellow river, and water to the Indian peninsular region is likely to worsen the Brahmaputra to China’s drought-prone northern the existing environmentally-stressed condition of the areas, through huge canals, aqueducts, and tunnels. southwest region of Bangladesh. One of the water diversion routes, more specifi cally the southern component of the route cutting through the Tipaimukh Dam in India Tibetan mountains, will divert waters of the Tsangpo Th e proposed Tipaimukh dam across the Barak river for a large hydroelectric plant and irrigation use. Th e in Manipur state in India is planned to be constructed planned water diversion will have adverse consequences primarily for fl ood control and power generation, in the downstream areas. Implementation of the plan envisaging secondary benefi ts including irrigation. A will result in loss of land and ecosystems due to the barrage is also planned to be constructed across the submergence of a huge area in the Tibetan region. Flow Barak at Fulertal, 100 km downstream of the dam site, control for power generation and irrigation during the to provide irrigation water for the Cachar Irrigation dry season, and water release during the fl ood season Project. Th e major environmental issues of the project may pose a serious threat to the fl ood management, dry emerging from an Environmental Impact Assessment season water availability, and ecosystem preservation of (EIA) study include biodiversity conservation, rapid northern India and Bangladesh. deforestation, and community participation for envi- ronmental planning and management (North-Eastern Regional Cooperation— Electrical Power Corporation Ltd, NEEPCO 2000). The Way Forward Th ere is a strong opposition to this project from both Th ere are huge potentials of regional cooperation in the within and outside India (Institution of Engineers GBM basins on a number of issues, including sharing Bangladesh [IEB] 2005). Th e major likely impacts of major rivers during lean period, augmentation of this project inside India include loss of homes, of fl ow of the lean period, hydropower generation lands, and livelihoods, loss of state and reserve for- and distribution, cooperation in fl ood management, ests, submergence of wildlife sanctuaries, and adverse sharing of data for fl ood forecasting, cooperation in impacts on fi sheries, biodiversity, and navigation. In navigation system, water quality improvement, and 38 India Infrastructure Report 2011 watershed management. However, lack of mutual trust harnessing the water under a multilateral framework and confi dence among the co-riparian countries has among Nepal, India, and Bangladesh for a number played a major role in the long-standing disputes or of co-riparian benefi ts seems to be the most feasible confl icts surrounding trans-boundary rivers. Th e GBM option. Besides hydropower generation, the storage countries have much to learn from the experiences of reservoirs are likely to mitigate fl oods in the down- international treaties and river basin organizations, stream reaches of the Ganges. At the same time, the which underscore the importance of common or monsoon water stored in the reservoirs will be available shared interests of nations, the perception of huge for dry season augmentation of fl ow thus increasing dry mutual benefi ts, usefulness of sharing of benefi ts, and season irrigation potential and also the possibility of the importance of basin-level management. river navigation. Th e Bangladesh–Nepal Joint Study Team (1989) Water Resources Development Opportunities identifi ed and recommended 30 potential reservoir Water resources development options could be a com- sites in Nepal, nine of which were classifi ed as large, bination of cooperative non-structural (for example, each having live storage capacity over three BCM, with sharing or exchange of data and information) and an aggregate gross storage capacity of 110 BCM. Th e structural (for example, dams or reservoirs at ‘suitable’ total storage capacity of high dam projects in Nepal locations) measures. Creation of storage reservoirs by would regulate over 95 per cent of the total annual fl ow. dams for hydropower generation has been rather com- Augmentation potential in Nepal during the dry season mon in upstream riparian countries, especially India. can range from 2400 to 4950 metre3 per second, which However, storage projects for a single purpose are hardly is more than four times the present lean season fl ows in economical and practical, and hence are less attractive. the Ganges at Farakka. From the Bangladesh perspec- Storage projects need to be seen from the multipurpose tive, as outlined in the Bangladesh–Nepal Joint study, point of view in a regional context to derive benefi ts the Sapta-Kosi High Dam Project has the maximum from fl ood control, irrigation, navigation, hydropower potential for augmenting the fl ows at Farakka, which generation, and enhanced economic condition of the could benefi t Nepal, Bangladesh, and India (Ahmad et people. Such structural interventions will need to be al. 2001; Adhikari et al. 2000). It is important that the evaluated in terms of technical, social, and environ- planning and design for the Sapta-Kosi High Dam, now mental considerations (seismic activity, submergence, at an advanced stage of planning exercise between India population displacement, impact on land and ecosys- and Nepal, takes into full consideration the concerns tem, physical impact downstream, and the equity issue of Bangladesh as a co-riparian and that Bangladesh is in sharing costs and benefi ts). allowed to equitably share the augmented dry season Geographical and hydrological characteristics fl ows and hydropower through joint collaboration dur- make Nepal the most suitable site for construction ing implementation. of multi-purpose reservoirs (Uprety 2006). Nepal has Considering the vast hydropower potential of the magnifi cent gorges where high dams can be built and GBM basins, a thorough cooperative eff ort is needed the Himalayan waters stored (Bangladesh–Nepal Joint to produce and share hydropower. Nepal and Bhutan, Study Team 1989). Th e prospects of construction of the two neighbouring countries of India, have rich reservoirs in the Ganges basin in India have mostly hydropower potential far in excess of their domestic been exploited; the middle and lower sections of the requirement; they have huge potential of earning system in northern India have no physical dam sites rich revenue to boost their economy by selling it to to store monsoon fl ows (Adhikari et al. 2000), and the other countries. Nepal leads the countries in terms of fl oodplain topography of Bangladesh is unfavourable hydropower potential with a theoretical potential of for the construction of reservoirs. Since the tributar- 83,000 MW and an economically acceptable potential ies fl owing from Nepal contribute the major fl ows of over 42,000 MW (Uprety 2006; Onta 2001; and of the Ganges (about 40 per cent of the annual fl ow Biswas 2008). Bhutan, too, has a potential of about and 70 per cent of the dry season fl ow) (Malla et al. 20,000 MW. Cooperation between Nepal and India 2001; Tiwary 2006), tapping the fl ow in Nepal and in this respect has been limited with the exception of Opportunities for Trans-boundary Water Sharing in Th e Ganges, Th e Brahmaputra, and Th e Meghna Basins 39 the recently initiated Sapta-Kosi Dam, while there possible because both India and Pakistan could perceive are close ties between India and Bhutan with regard the huge advantage of the development of the waters to hydropower development. An integrated plan for of the Indus system. Th e Mekong River Agreement of hydroelectric development and sharing through an 1995 was made possible because the four countries saw interconnected grid across the borders is becoming all a common interest in jointly managing their shared the more essential. water resources and developing the economic potential River navigation connected with the sea plays an of the river. Th e Nile Basin Initiative of 1999 is another important role in the development process of the ba- example of a ‘shared vision’ by the basin countries to sin countries. Th e fl ow regulation through creation of achieve sustainable development through equitable multi-purpose reservoirs in the upper reaches of the ‘sharing of benefi ts’, with the focus not on water but on rivers will open opportunities for inland river naviga- a win–win situation of regional development. tion in the downstream reaches. Nepal, a landlocked country, could benefi t through the establishment Sharing of Benefi ts of links with the inland water transport networks of Shared vision of the co-riparian could best be achieved India and Bangladesh; allowing Nepal access to Kolkata if sharing of ‘equitable benefi ts’, not ‘water’ itself, (India) and Mongla (Bangladesh) ports (Ahmad et al. is seen as a negotiating approach. Traditionally, co- 2001). riparian states have focused on water as a commodity Th e major potential for regional cooperation lies in to be divided—a zero-sum, rights-based approach. non-structural management measures, more specifi cal- Precedents now exist for determining formulae that ly, fl ood forecasting and warning. After the disastrous equitably allocate the ‘benefi ts’ derived from water—a fl oods in Bangladesh in 1988, the Indian Govern- win–win, integrative approach. In fact, it is at the root ment showed interest in regional co-operation for of some of the world’s most successful institutions fl ood mitigation in both the countries through a joint (United Nations Educational, Scientifi c, and Cultural action plan. Th rough bilateral cooperation, Bangladesh Organization [UNESCO] 2003). Examples of the receives water level and rainfall data from a number ‘sharing of benefi ts’ approach date back to the 1909 of stations (Ahmad and Ahmed 2003). Th ere also Boundary Waters Agreement between USA and exists cooperation between Bangladesh and Nepal, with Canada, and the Columbia treaty between USA and Bangladesh receiving water level data from four Canada relating to the cooperative development of stations in Nepal. Limited fl ood related data at three the Columbia River Basin in 1964 (United Nations stations on the Chinese section of the Brahmaputra Environment Programme [UNEP] 2002; cited in have also been transmitted from China to Bangladesh Rahaman and Varis 2007). Th e Nile Basin Initiative is since 2006. Th ere exists bilateral cooperation between perhaps the best example of a shared vision by the basin India and Nepal and also between India and Bhutan in countries to achieve sustainable development through respect of sharing of data for fl ood forecasting. How- equitable sharing of benefi ts, with the focus not on ever, there is still a signifi cant scope for strengthening water but on regional development. the existing cooperation and extending it further in a In the GBM basins, the concern is the sharing of regional perspective. benefi ts from water use—whether from hydropower, agriculture, fl ood control, navigation, trade, tourism, Shared Vision or the preservation of healthy aquatic ecosystems. Th ere is a strong need to stimulate a mutual trust and Nepal has the potential to supply hydroelectric power confi dence among the basin countries, which requires and water storage benefi ts to India, while India has the development and maintaining of ‘common’ or ‘shared’ potential to supply navigation and transit facilities and vision or interests. Th e GBM countries may learn from to provide fi nancing and expertise to Nepal. India has the fact that agreements between economically and the potential to grant secure expectations of minimum politically disparate countries were possible in the cases fl ow to Bangladesh, while Bangladesh has the poten- of the Indus Treaty, Mekong River Agreement, and Nile tial to permit navigation and transit access to India. Basin Initiative. Th e Indus Treaty of 1961 was made Nepal has the potential to supply hydropower and 40 India Infrastructure Report 2011 storage benefi ts to Bangladesh, while Bangladesh has institutions, which is refl ected in their roles in dif- the potential to provide navigation and transit access to fusing tensions in basins with large numbers of water Nepal. Bhutan has the potential to supply hydroelectric infrastructure projects (for example, in the Rhine and power and water storage benefi ts to India, while India Danube basins). As UNESCO (2003) points out, has the potential to provide fi nancing and expertise ‘some of the most vociferous enemies around the to Bhutan. world’ have been able to negotiate and maintain water agreements because of resilient institutions that stood Multi-lateral Cooperation fi rm over time and during periods of otherwise strained It will not be possible to materialize the huge potentials relations. Examples are the Mekong Committee, which of ‘sharing of benefi ts’ in a sustainable way under a functioned since 1957 and exchanged data throughout bilateral regime since bilateral negotiations are likely to the Vietnam War, the Indus River Commission which exclude the positive and negative externalities (Crow survived through two wars between India and Pakistan, and Singh 2009). Construction of storage reservoirs and the Nile Basin Initiative in which all ten Nile ripar- for a variety of multipurpose uses (dry season fl ow aug- ian states have engaged in negotiations over cooperative mentation, irrigation, fl ood mitigation, navigation, and development of the basin. Eff orts are needed to have hydropower generation) concerns the interests of more a similar resilient institution in the GBM region with than two countries, and can be achieved only through suffi cient authority and mutual trust among the repre- multilateral dialogues and cooperation among the co- sentatives of the basin countries. riparian countries. Multilateral resolution, though not the most common of methods, is an ideal way to reach Participatory Fact Finding Mission a permanent, fair, and eff ective agreement through its Th ere are disparities among the countries with regards greater levels of participation and tendency for more to hegemony and economic power. Given the political permanent and eff ective agreements. realities of the development of trans-boundary waters, a big question now is how to eliminate the mistrust Basin-wide Approach among the GBM countries and create an environ- Multi-lateral cooperation has the potential of coming ment in which the countries can see and materialize up with basin-wide approaches to dispute resolution, their ‘shared’ or ‘common’ interests. Experiences from where all the riparian states organize a committee for Mekong and Nile elucidate the urgent need to stimulate the organization of the use of the waterway. While a participatory process to allow, facilitate, and support national water policies of the GBM countries emphasize stakeholder involvement in water resources planning the importance of basin-wide management approach, process in the GBM region. Uitto and Duda (2002) the planning and management of water resources have observe that initial, strategic joint fact-fi nding projects often been geared towards national interests, with very among participating nations can serve as an important little acknowledgements of regional interdependency. catalytic tool for achieving a shared vision and commit- Shared vision of the co-riparian states on equitable ment among the riparian nations. All relevant stake- sharing of benefi ts can best be achieved through basin- holders including national governments, civil society wide management of water resources. Lessons may be organizations, academia, research institutions, NGOs, drawn from the prevailing basin-wide management of and donors need to work together in joint research to trans-boundary rivers, for example, Rhine, Mekong, address the challenges ahead. Th is proactive stakeholder Danube, and Nile. participation will help build transparency and facilitate identifi cation of options for win–win solutions to the Resilient Institutions existing problems in the GBM river systems. Th is, in Despite the potential for dispute in trans-boundary turn, will serve as preventive diplomacy by generating basins, the record of cooperation historically over- political support and allowing the co-riparian nations whelms the record of acute confl ict over international to go ahead of the crisis curve through preclusion of water resources. Th ere is a huge importance of resilient future disputes or crises in the long run. Opportunities for Trans-boundary Water Sharing in Th e Ganges, Th e Brahmaputra, and Th e Meghna Basins 41

Multi-track Diplomacy Research (CPR) of India took the initiative to bring the It is increasingly recognized that skills other than two sides closer to each other by organizing meetings technical engineering expertise are required to facilitate on Indo-Bangladesh relations where various issues, and enable the trans-boundary water negotiation including trade and water sharing, were discussed. process. Diplomatic and negotiation skills are needed However, with growing complexities of water sharing together with an understanding of the technicalities. issues and because of the highly politicized nature of Multi-track diplomacy often comes handy in complex discussions between the co-riparian countries, it seems negotiations between countries. Track I diplomatic that a Track III diplomacy approach is warranted, in eff orts by the concerned governments in India and which dialogue and advocacy eff orts will be led by civil Bangladesh have been made for a long time through society organizations, with the aim to stimulate progress the Joint River Commission. Track II diplomatic eff orts at more formal levels (Track I and Track II). Th e Track have also been pursued to enhance the eff ectiveness of III approach will result in an open environment that the Track I eff orts. One example is the signing of the enables listening to each other and understanding each Ganges Water Treaty in 1996, where Centre for Policy other’s view points, not hampered by political or other Dialogue (CPD) of Bangladesh and Centre for Policy power oriented position.

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